Swimming Fast When It Counts: A 7-Year Analysis of Olympic and World Championships Performance

Effects of Time Point of Pre-Competitions Peaking on Performance in Major-Competitions

Objectives: To study the effects of the time points of pre-competition peaking (TPCP, the time point when an athlete's peaking shows up before a major-competition) on the athletes' performances in the major-competition (M-Performance). Design: Mixed design. Methods: We used cluster analysis to classify 892 elite track and field athletes who participated in the 2017 and 2019 IAAF World Championships in Athletics, based on their TPCP and other related factors. Furthermore, we used a fixed-effects model and a mixed-effects model to analyze the relationship between the TPCP and M-Performance. Results: The TPCP of elite track and field athletes were divided into four categories: late, slightly late, slightly early, and early. In speed/power events, athletes in the slightly late category had better M-Performance. In endurance events, athletes in the slightly early category had better M-Performance. In speed/power events, delaying the TPCP did not improve the athletes' M-Performance. In endurance events, advancing the TPCP effectively improved the athletes' M-Performance. Conclusions: To improve M-Performance, athletes in speed/power events should be peaking 2-8 weeks before a major-competition, and athletes in endurance events should be peaking 8-14 weeks before a major-competition. Future research should aim to identify individual factors affecting TPCP, such as the time for the body's adaptation to training and the residual training effect.

Career factors related to winning Olympic medals in swimming

To investigate associations between a swimmer's career progression and winning a medal at the Olympic Games (OG) or World Championships (WC). A total of 4631 swimming performances of 1535 top swimmers (653 women, 882 men) from 105 nationalities since1973 were extracted from FINA rankings. A panel of 12 predictor variables including nationality, gender, competition, age, number and timing of competitions, pattern of progressions and regressions in performance, and medal outcomes was established. Linear logistic regression was used to study the association between winning a medal and predictor variables. Logistic regression coefficients were obtained by training on 80% of the database, and prediction accuracy evaluated on the remaining 20%. Using the training set, a selection of 9 most relevant features for prediction of winning a medal (target variable) was obtained through exhaustive feature selection and cross-validation: nationality, competition, number of competitions, number of annual career progressions (nb_prog), maximum annual career progression (max-progr), number of annual career regressions (nb_reg), age at maximum annual progression, P6 (the level of performance six months before the World Championships or Olympic Games), and P2 (the level of performance two months before the World Championships or Olympic Games). A logistic regression model was built and retrained on the entire training set achieved an area under the ROC curve of ~90% on the test set. The odds of winning a medal increased by 1.64 (95% CI, 1.39-1.91) and 1.44 (1.22-1.72) for each unit of increase in max-progr and n-prog, respectively. Odds of winning a medal decreased by 0.60 (0.49-0.72) for a unit increase in n-reg. In contrast, the odds increased by 1.70 (1.39-2.07) and 4.35 (3.48-5.42) for improvements in the 6 and 2 months before competition (P<0.001, for all variables). The likelihood of a swimmer winning an international medal is improved by ~40-90% with progressions from season-to-season, and reducing the number of regressions in performance. The chances of success are also improved 2- to 4-fold by substantial improvements in performance in the months before competition.

Contributions of each of the four swimming strokes to elite 200-400 individual medley swimming performance in short and long course competitions

Objectives

The relative contribution of each of the four strokes to performance, and whether these contributions differ substantially between short course and long course competitions is unclear. To clarify these issues the aim of this study was to assess the strokes that have more influence on the performance in the 200 and 400 m IM swimming performances of elite male and female swimmers, participating in major events: Olympic Games (OG) and World Championship (WC) in short-course and long-course from 2012 to 2021.

Methods

Data from 1,095 swimmers (501 women and 594 men) who competed in 200 and 400-m IM were obtained with a minimum level of 800 FINA points. Linear regression modelling and classification trees were employed to quantify differences between strokes and short/long course swimming.

Results

Regression analysis indicated that breaststroke (β =  - 0.191; p < 0.000) and backstroke (β =  - 0.185; p < 0.000) had a bigger effect on IM performance, with butterfly (β =  - 0.101; p < 0.000) having a lesser impact. The classification trees showed threshold performance standards in terms of 50-m times in form-stroke events must be fulfilled to attain medal-winning performances.

Conclusions

These form-stroke standards represent important milestones for designing medal-oriented training strategies for both 200 IM and 400 m IM. Achieving a medallist position in 200 and 400 m IM requires obtaining specified lap times in butterfly, breaststroke and backstroke for males and females in long-course competitions, and breaststroke and backstroke for short-course competitions. The OG presents more exigent demands of lap times in butterfly, crawl and backstroke for IM swimmers.

Next-Generation Models for Predicting Winning Times in Elite Swimming Events: Updated Predictions for the Paris 2024 Olympic Games

PURPOSE

To evaluate statistical models developed for predicting medal-winning performances for international swimming events and generate updated performance predictions for the Paris 2024 Olympic Games.

METHODS

The performance of 2 statistical models developed for predicting international swimming performances was evaluated. The first model employed linear regression and forecasting to examine performance trends among medal winners, finalists, and semifinalists over an 8-year period. A machine-learning algorithm was used to generate time predictions for each individual event for the Paris 2024 Olympic Games. The second model was a Bayesian framework and comprised an autoregressive term (the previous winning time), moving average (past 3 events), and covariates for stroke, gender, distance, and type of event (World Championships vs Olympic Games). To examine the accuracy of the predictions from both models, the mean absolute error was determined between the predicted times for the Budapest 2022 World Championships and the actual results from said championships.

RESULTS

The mean absolute error for prediction of swimming performances was 0.80% for the linear-regression machine-learning model and 0.85% for the Bayesian model. The predicted times and actual times from the Budapest 2022 World Championships were highly correlated (r = .99 for both approaches).

CONCLUSIONS

These models, and associated predictions for swimming events at the Paris 2024 Olympic Games, provide an evidence-based performance framework for coaches, sport-science support staff, and athletes to develop and evaluate training plans, strategies, and tactics, as well as informing resource allocation to athletes, based on their potential for the Paris 2024 Olympic Games.

Competition and Training Strategies for Developing World Class 200- and 400-m Individual Medley Swimmers

Swimming performance achieved in 50-m, 100-m and 200-m events in each swimming stroke can have an influence on the final performance in individual medley (IM) events. We attempted to quantify the relative contributions of performance in individual stroke events to top-10 world ranked IM competition performance. We examined competition results of top-10 world ranked IM swimmers (90 males and 90 females) between 2012 and 2018. A general linear model was developed to examine association between the 200-m and 400-mIM and predictor variables of competition performance in other 50-m, 100-m, and 200-m events. The main predictor variable for 200-mIM medalist status was having scored more than 900 FINA points in at least one 100-m event. Scoring more than 800 FINA points in at least two 200-mIM events, and more than 900 FINA points in at least one 100-m event, was important for success in the 400-mIM. Top-10 world ranked 200-mIM and 400-mIM swimmers require a world class standard in one or more individual stroke event(s).

From Entry to Finals: Progression and Variability of Swimming Performance at the 2022 FINA World Championships

The aim of the present study was two-fold: (i) to analyze the progression and variability of swimming performance (from entry times to best performances) in the 50, 100, and 200 m at the most recent FINA World Championships and (ii) to compare the performance of the Top16, semifinalists, and finalists between all rounds. Swimmers who qualified with the FINA A and B standards for the Budapest 2022 World Championships were considered. A total of 1102 individual performances swimmers were analyzed in freestyle, backstroke, breaststroke, and butterfly events. The data was retrieved from the official open-access websites of OMEGA and FINA. Wilcoxon test was used to compare swimmers' entry times and best performances. Repeated measures ANOVA followed by the Bonferroni post-hoc test were performed to analyze the round-to-round progression. The percentage of improvement and variation in the swimmers' performance was computed between rounds. A negative progression (entry times better than best performance) and a high variability (> 0.69%) were found for most events. The finalists showed a positive progression with a greater improvement (~1%) from the heats to the semifinals. However, the performance progression remained unchanged between the semifinals and finals. The variability tended to decrease between rounds making each round more homogeneous. Coaches and swimmers can use these indicators to prepare a race strategy between rounds.

Are the 50 m Race Segments Changed From Heats to Finals at the 2021 European Swimming Championships?

This study explored in the 50 m races of the four swimming strokes the performance parameters and/or technical variables that determined the differences between swimmers who reach the finals and those who do not. A total of 322 performances retrieved from the 2021 Budapest European championships were the focus of this study. The results of the performances achieved during the finals compared to the heats showed that the best swimmers did not excel during the heats, as a significant progression of performance was observed in most of the strokes as the competition progressed. Specifically, combining men and women, the swimmers had in freestyle a mean coefficient of variation (CV) of ∼0.6%, with a mean range of performance improvement (∆%) of ∆ = ∼0.7%; in breaststroke a mean CV of ∼0.5% and ∆ = −0.2%; in backstroke a mean CV of ∼0.5% and ∆ = −0.6%, and; in butterfly a mean CV of ∼0.7% and ∆ = −0.9%. For all strokes, it was a reduction of the underwater phase with the aim of increasing its speed. However, this result was not always transferred to the final performance. In any case, most of the swimmers tried to make improvements from the start of the race up to 15 m. Furthermore, the swimmers generated an overall increase in stroke rate as the rounds progressed. However, a decrease in stroke length resulted and, this balance appeared to be of little benefit to performance.

Start Fast, Swim Faster, Turn Fastest: Section Analyses and Normative Data for Individual Medley

The aims of the study were to provide benchmarks and normative data for 100 m, 200 m, and 400 m short-course individual medley (IM) races, investigate differences between the various swimming strokes and turns involved in IM, and quantify the effect and contribution of various race sections on swimming performance. All IM races (n = 320) at the 2019 European Short-Course Swimming Championships were video monitored and digitized with interrater reliability described by a mean intra-class correlation coefficient of 0.968. Normative data were provided for the eight finalists of each event (FINA points = 886 ± 37) and the eight slowest swimmers from each event (FINA points = 688 ± 53). Contribution and effects of race sections on swimming performance were investigated using stepwise regression analysis based on all races of each event. Regression analysis explained 97-100% of total variance in race time and revealed turn time (β ≥ 0.53) as distinguishing factor in short-course IM races in addition to swim velocity (β ≥ -0.28). Start time only affected 100 m (β ≥ 0.14) and 200 m (β ≥ 0.04) events. Fastest turn times were found for the butterfly/backstroke turn. Breaststroke showed slowest swim velocities and no difference between fastest and slowest 100 m IM swimmers. Therefore, breaststroke may provide largest potential for future development in IM race times. Correlation analyses revealed that distance per stroke (r ≥ -0.39, P < 0.05) rather than stroke rate (r ≤ -0.18, P > 0.05) is a performance indicator and may be used by coaches and performance analysts to evaluate stroke mechanics in male IM swimmers despite its more complex assessment. Performance analysts, coaches, and swimmers may use the present normative data to establish minimal and maximal requirements for European Championship participation and to create specific drills in practice.

The association of end-spurt behaviour with seasonal best time in long-distance freestyle pool swimming

AbstractPurpose: To analyse the association of seasonal best time, distance and different performance levels with end-spurt behaviour in one swimming season.

METHODS

Race results in 800 m and 1500 m pool freestyle swimming in the season 2018/2019 including 14,930 races and 2,650 swimmers were obtained. The end-spurt for each race was determined by means of an End-Spurt Indicator (ESI). Subsequently, ESI was used as a dependent variable and influences were analysed using a linear mixed model with fixed effects for seasonal best time, distance, and performance level amongst others.

RESULTS

In the 800 m and 1500 m races swimmers showed a mean ESI of 2.08 (95% CI: 2.02 to 2.13) and 3.68 (95% CI: 3.59 to 3.76), respectively. There was a significant association between seasonal best time and ESI, with a better seasonal best time showing a greater ESI (F = 70.5, P < .001, f²= 0.04). A significant effect on greater ESI was also observed for longer distance (F = 1067.5, P < .001, f²= 0.06) and higher performance level (F = 91.1, P < .001, f²= 0.02). Elite swimmers had a mean ESI of 5.47 (95% CI: 4.91 to 6.03), sub-elite swimmers of 3.74 (95% CI: 3.53 to 3.95) and competitive swimmers of 2.41 (95% CI: 2.37 to 2.46).

CONCLUSION

A more pronounced end-spurt is associated with seasonal best time in long-distance pool swimming, higher performance level of the swimmer and longer race distance.

Progression and variation of competitive 100 and 200m performance at the 2021 European Swimming Championships

Competitive progressions are necessary to ensure that peak performance occurs when medals are decided. This study aimed to: i) study the coefficient of variation (CV) and performance changes (%Δ) among swimmers who participated in different rounds (i.e., heats, semi-finals and finals); ii) study the CV changes as a function of FINA-points. A total of 1447 performances were analysed in the 100 and 200 m-races during the Budapest 2021 European-Championships. Linear mixed-effects models were applied for total and split-times to obtain intra-athlete CV and %Δ. The FINA-points were studied with two-way ANOVA and Pearson's correlation assessed the relations with CV. The CV in 100 m-races was: 0.48 ± 0.21% for males and 0.50 ± 0.20% for females (Δ = -0.66%); in 200 m-races: 0.63 ± 0.36% and 0.60 ± 0.34% (Δ = -0.82%). There were differences in FINA-points between strokes and distances (p < 0.02) associated with higher CV for the 200 m-races (r = 0.37; p = 0.003), indicating changes in performance over the rounds. Swimmers' finalists performed easier during the heats by going slower in the first 50 m-lap; however, some of them would have little chance of qualifying during major championships because some events were below FINA-points world-standards.

Strength, Endocrine, and Body Composition Alterations across Four Blocks of Training in an Elite 400 m Sprinter

The ability to produce force rapidly has the potential to directly influence sprinting performance through changes in stride length and stride frequency. This ability is commonly referred to as the rate of force development (RFD). For this reason, many elite sprinters follow a combined program consisting of resistance training and sprint training. The purpose of this study was to investigate the strength, endocrine and body composition adaptations that occur during distinct phases of a block periodized training cycle in a 400 m Olympic level sprinter. The athlete is an elite level 400 m male sprinter (age 31 years, body mass: 74 kg, years of training: 15 and Personal Best (PB): 45.65 s). This athlete completed four distinct training phases of a block periodized training program (16 weeks) with five testing sessions consisting of testosterone:cortisol (T/C) profiles, body composition, vertical jump, and maximum strength testing. Large fluctuations in T/C were found following high volume training and the taper. Minor changes in body mass were observed with an abrupt decrease following the taper which coincided with a small increase in fat mass percentage. Jump height (5.7%), concentric impulse (9.4%), eccentric impulse (3.4%) and power ratio (18.7%) all increased substantially from T1 to T5. Relative strength increased 6.04% from T1 to T5. Lastly, our results demonstrate the effectiveness of a competitive taper in increasing physiological markers for performance as well as dynamic performance variables. Block periodization training was effective in raising the physical capabilities of an Olympic level 400 m runner which have been shown to directly transfer to sprinting performance.

Competition-Based Success Factors During the Talent Pathway of Elite Male Swimmers

Marginal differences in race results between top swimmers have evoked the interest in competition-based success factors of long-term athlete development. To identify novel factors for the multi-dimensional model of talent development, the aim of the study was to investigate annual variation in competition performance (ACV), number of races per year, and age. Therefore, 45,398 race results of all male participants (n = 353) competing in individual events, i.e., butterfly, backstroke, breaststroke, freestyle, and individual medley, at the 2018 European Long-Course Swimming Championships (2018EC) were analyzed retrospectively for all 10 years prior to the championships with Pearson's correlation coefficient and multiple linear regression analysis. Higher ranked swimmers at the 2018EC showed significant medium correlations with a greater number of races per year and small but significant correlations with higher ACV in 10 and nine consecutive years, respectively, prior to the championships. Additionally, better swimmers were older than their lower ranked peers (r = −0.21, p < 0.001). Regression model explained a significant proportion of 2018EC ranking for 50 m (47%), 100 m (45%), 200 m (31%), and 400 m races (29%) but not for 800 and 1,500 m races with number of races having the largest effect followed by age and ACV. In conclusion, higher performance variation with results off the personal best in some races did not impair success at the season's main event and young competitors at international championships may benefit from success chances that increase with age. The higher number of races swum per year throughout the career of higher ranked swimmers may have provided learning opportunities and specific adaptations. Future studies should quantify these success factors in a multi-dimensional talent development model.