Human-induced changes in the distribution of rainfall

Exploring changes of precipitation extremes under climate change through global variable-resolution modeling

Understanding the responses of precipitation extremes to global climate change remains limited owing to their poor representations in models and complicated interactions with multi-scale systems. Here we take the record-breaking precipitation over China in 2021 as an example, and study its changes under three different climate scenarios through a developed pseudo-global-warming (PGW) experimental framework with 60-3 km variable-resolution global ensemble modeling. Compared to the present climate, the precipitation extreme under a warmer (cooler) climate increased (decreased) in intensity, coverage, and total amount at a range of 24.3%-37.8% (18.7%-56.1%). With the help of the proposed PGW experimental framework, we further reveal the impacts of the multi-scale system interactions in climate change on the precipitation extreme. Under the warmer climate, large-scale water vapor transport converged from double typhoons and the subtropical high marched into central China, enhancing the convective energy and instability on the leading edge of the transport belt. As a result, the mesoscale convective system (MCS) that directly contributed to the precipitation extreme became stronger than that in the present climate. On the contrary, the cooler climate displayed opposite changing characteristics relative to the warmer climate, ranging from the large-scale systems to local environments and to the MCS. In summary, our study provides a promising approach to scientifically assess the response of precipitation extremes to climate change, making it feasible to perform ensemble simulations while investigating the multi-scale system interactions over the globe.

The strength, position, and width changes of the intertropical convergence zone since the Last Glacial Maximum

The intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) plays a key role in regulating tropical hydroclimate and global water cycle through changes in its convection strength, latitudinal position, and width. The long-term variability of the ITCZ, along with the corresponding driving mechanisms, however, remains obscure, mainly because it is difficult to separate different ITCZ variables in paleoclimate proxy records. Here, we report a speleothem oxygen isotope (δ18O) record from southwestern Sulawesi, Indonesia, and compile it with other speleothem records from the Maritime Continent. Using the spatial gradient of speleothem δ18O along a transect across the ITCZ, we constrain ITCZ variabilities over the Maritime Continent during the past 30,000 y. We find that ITCZ convection strength overall intensified from the last glacial period to the Holocene, following changes in climate boundary conditions. The mean position of the regional ITCZ has moved latitudinally no more than 3° in the past 30,000 y, consistent with the deduction from the atmospheric energy framework. However, different from modern observations and model simulations for future warming, the ITCZ appeared narrower during both the late Holocene and most part of the last glacial period, and its expansion occurred during Heinrich stadials and the early-to-mid Holocene. We also find that during the last glacial and deglacial period, prominent millennial-scale ITCZ changes were closely tied to the variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), whereas during the Holocene, they were predominantly modulated by the long-term variability of the Walker circulation.

Aerosols overtake greenhouse gases causing a warmer climate and more weather extremes toward carbon neutrality

To mitigate climate warming, many countries have committed to achieve carbon neutrality in the mid-21st century. Here, we assess the global impacts of changing greenhouse gases (GHGs), aerosols, and tropospheric ozone (O3) following a carbon neutrality pathway on climate and extreme weather events individually using the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1). The results suggest that the future aerosol reductions significantly contribute to climate warming and increase the frequency and intensity of extreme weathers toward carbon neutrality and aerosol impacts far outweigh those of GHGs and tropospheric O3. It reverses the knowledge that the changing GHGs dominate the future climate changes as predicted in the middle of the road pathway. Therefore, substantial reductions in GHGs and tropospheric O3 are necessary to reach the 1.5 °C warming target and mitigate the harmful effects of concomitant aerosol reductions on climate and extreme weather events under carbon neutrality in the future.

Variation in methane uptake by grassland soils in the context of climate change - A review of effects and mechanisms

Grassland soils are climate-dependent ecosystems that have a significant greenhouse gas mitigating function through their ability to store large amounts of carbon (C). However, what is often not recognized is that they can also exhibit a high methane (CH₄) uptake capacity that could be influenced by future increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration and variations in temperature and water availability. While there is a wealth of information on C sequestration in grasslands there is less consensus on how climate change impacts on CH₄ uptake or the underlying mechanisms involved. To address this, we assessed existing knowledge on the impact of climate change components on CH₄ uptake by grassland soils. Increases in precipitation associated with soils with a high background soil moisture content generally resulted in a reduction in CH₄ uptake or even net emissions, while the effect was opposite in soils with a relatively low background moisture content. Initially wet grasslands subject to the combined effects of warming and water deficits may absorb more CH₄, mainly due to increased gas diffusivity. However, in the longer-term heat and drought stress may reduce the activity of methanotrophs when the mean soil moisture content is below the optimum for their survival. Enhanced plant productivity and growth under elevated CO₂, increased soil moisture and changed nutrient concentrations, can differentially affect methanotrophic activity, which is often reduced by increasing N deposition. Our estimations showed that CH₄ uptake in grassland soils can change from -57.7 % to +6.1 % by increased precipitation, from -37.3 % to +85.3 % by elevated temperatures, from +0.87 % to +92.4 % by decreased precipitation, and from -66.7 % to +27.3 % by elevated CO₂. In conclusion, the analysis suggests that grasslands under the influence of warming and drought may absorb even more CH₄, mainly because of reduced soil water contents and increased gas diffusivity.

Determining the spatial contributions of land use changes on the streamflow and sediment transport regimes: a case study of the Gorganroud watershed in Iran

Human activities and climate change are recognized as two of the most important drivers of hydrologic variability and have attracted the interest of researchers over the past decade. Changes in land use, dam construction, agricultural development, and global warming are forces that directly or indirectly impact the global and local hydrologic regime. This study examines the effects of these drivers on streamflow and sediment transport in the Gorganroud watershed, located in the north of Iran. In addition, the most sensitive land use patterns are detected using statistical approaches and a hydrologic model. The current study's principal argument is based on the variability of land use patterns during the modeling procedure (2007-2019). The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is used to consider the land use dynamics during the simulation period based on the hydrological regime of the reference period. The Simple Differential Method (SDM) and Climate Elasticity Method (CEM) are utilized to estimate the contribution rates of land use and climate change in streamflow and sediment transport changes. The results indicate that changes in land use have contributed more than 60% to streamflow and sediment regime changes in all subbasins. A sensitivity analysis of land uses and the spatial distribution of the Human Contribution Rate (HCR) over the study area reveal that an increase in orchard land use (8.7% during the computational period) is primarily responsible for these significant changes.

Terrestrial amplification of past, present, and future climate change

Terrestrial amplification (TA) of land warming relative to oceans is apparent in recent climatic observations. TA results from land-sea coupling of moisture and heat and is therefore important for predicting future warming and water availability. However, the theoretical basis for TA has never been tested outside the short instrumental period, and the spatial pattern and amplitude of TA remain uncertain. Here, we investigate TA during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM; ~20 thousand years) in the low latitudes, where the theory is most applicable. We find remarkable consistency between paleotemperature proxies, theory, and climate model simulations of both LGM and future climates. Paleoclimate data thus provide crucial new support for TA, refining the range of future low-latitude, low-elevation TA to [Formula: see text] (95% confidence interval), i.e., land warming ~40% more than oceans. The observed data model theory agreement helps reconcile LGM marine and terrestrial paleotemperature proxies, with implications for equilibrium climate sensitivity.

Temporal dynamics of range expander and congeneric native plant responses during and after extreme drought events

Climate change is causing range shifts of many species to higher latitudes and altitudes and increasing their exposure to extreme weather events. It has been shown that range-shifting plant species may perform differently in new soil than related natives; however, little is known about how extreme weather events affect range-expanding plants compared to related natives. In this study we used outdoor mesocosms to study how range-expanding plant species responded to extreme drought in live soil from a habitat in a new range with and without live soil from a habitat in the original range (Hungary). During summer drought, the shoot biomass of the range-expanding plant community declined. In spite of this, in the mixed community, range expanders produced more shoot biomass than congeneric natives. In mesocosms with a history of range expanders in the previous year, native plants produced less biomass. Plant legacy or soil origin effects did not change the response of natives or range expanders to summer drought. During rewetting, range expanders had less biomass than congeneric natives but higher drought resilience (survival) in soils from the new range where in the previous year native plant species had grown. The biomass patterns of the mixed plant communities were dominated by Centaurea spp.; however, not all plant species within the groups of natives and of range expanders showed the general pattern. Drought reduced the litter decomposition, microbial biomass, and abundances of bacterivorous, fungivorous, and carnivorous nematodes. Their abundances recovered during rewetting. There was less microbial and fungal biomass, and there were fewer fungivorous nematodes in soils from the original range where range expanders had grown in the previous year. We concluded that in mixed plant communities of range expanders and congeneric natives, range expanders performed better, under both ambient and drought conditions, than congeneric natives. However, when considering the responses of individual species, we observed variations among pairs of congenerics, so that under the present mixed-community conditions there was no uniformity in responses to drought of range expanders versus congeneric natives. Range-expanding plant species reduced soil fungal biomass and the numbers of soil fungivorous nematodes, suggesting that the effects of range-expanding plant species can trickle up in the soil food web.

Intra-annual growing season climate variability drives the community intra-annual stability of a temperate grassland by altering intra-annual species asynchrony and richness in Inner Mongolia, China

Understanding the factors that regulate the functioning of our ecosystems in response to environmental changes can help to maintain the stable provisioning of ecosystem services to mankind. This is especially relevant given the increased variability of environmental conditions due to human activities. In particular, maintaining a stable production and plant biomass during the growing season (intra‐annual stability) despite pervasive and directional changes in temperature and precipitation through time can help to secure food supply to wild animals, livestock, and humans. Here, we conducted a 29‐year field observational study in a temperate grassland to explore how the intra‐annual stability of primary productivity is influenced by biotic and abiotic variables through time. We found that intra‐annual precipitation variability in the growing season indirectly influenced the community intra‐annual biomass stability by its negative effect on intra‐annual species asynchrony. While the intra‐annual temperature variability in the growing season indirectly altered community intra‐annual biomass stability through affecting the intra‐annual species richness. At the same time, although the intra‐annual biomass stability of the dominant species and the dominant functional group were insensitive to climate variability, they also promoted the stable community biomass to a certain extent. Our results indicate that ongoing intra‐annual climate variability affects community intra‐annual biomass stability in the temperate grassland, which has important theoretical significance for us to take active measures to deal with climate change.

Event-Based Atmospheric Precipitation Uncovers Significant Even and Odd Hg Isotope Anomalies Associated with the Circumpolar Vortex

The determination of the mass-independent fractionation of even Hg isotopes (even-MIF, Δ²⁰⁰Hg) in atmospheric samples adds another intriguing feature to the Hg isotope system. Despite our lack of sufficient experimental verification and the momentary absence of a valid mechanism to explain its occurrence, even-MIF could be instrumental in understanding the cycle and deposition of atmospheric Hg. In contrast to slightly positive Δ²⁰⁰Hg values (<0.30‰) frequently observed in most atmospheric samples, large Δ²⁰⁰Hg values (up to 1.24‰) determined in precipitation from Peterborough (Ontario, Canada) stand out and could provide valuable information for the origin of the even-MIF mystery. We now report a systematic analysis of high-resolution rainfall and snowfall samples collected in winter during cold weather at Peterborough, Canada. Dissolved and particulate Hg both displayed large variations of odd-MIF (from -0.93‰ to 2.02‰ for Δ¹⁹⁹Hg), which may result from long-range transportation, as the negative odd-MIF in particulate Hg is likely a result of long-distance transport of arctic atmospheric Hg(II). Dissolved Hg revealed significant even-MIF values (from 0.25‰ to 1.19‰ for Δ²⁰⁰Hg) and a negative relationship between Δ²⁰⁰Hg and Δ²⁰⁴Hg, which provide further evidence for the previously proposed conceptual model of Δ²⁰⁰Hg. Disconnected odd-MIF and even-MIF trends were detected in sequentially collected precipitation samples, which further suggests different sources or mechanisms for Δ¹⁹⁹Hg and Δ²⁰⁰Hg. Particularly, the high Δ²⁰⁰Hg values highlight the transport of stratospheric Hg through a polar vortex to the sampling region, stimulating further systematic investigation. The new Δ²⁰⁰Hg data for particulate Hg add to existing information on atmospheric Hg(II) worldwide, suggesting a global distribution of Hg characterized by even-MIF in the atmosphere, and further constrain the model of atmospheric Hg deposition.

Associations between long-term drought and diarrhea among children under five in low- and middle-income countries

Climate change is projected to intensify drought conditions, which may increase the risk of diarrheal diseases in children. We constructed log-binomial generalized linear mixed models to examine the association between diarrhea risk, ascertained from global-scale nationally representative Demographic and Health Surveys, and drought, represented by the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, among children under five in 51 low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Exposure to 6-month mild or severe drought was associated with an increased diarrhea risk of 5% (95% confidence interval 3-7%) or 8% (5-11%), respectively. The association was stronger among children living in a household that needed longer time to collect water or had no access to water or soap/detergent for handwashing. The association for 24-month drought was strong in dry zones but weak or null in tropical or temperate zones, whereas that for 6-month drought was only observed in tropical or temperate zones. In this work we quantify the associations between exposure to long-term drought and elevated diarrhea risk among children under five in LMICs and suggest that the risk could be reduced through improved water, sanitation, and hygiene practices, made more urgent by the likely increase in drought due to climate change.

Interhemispheric antiphasing of neotropical precipitation during the past millennium

Understanding Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) responses to external forcing is critical for predicting climate change in a warming world. We analyzed paleoclimate records of precipitation change in the neotropics and climate model simulations that span the preindustrial last millennium to assess ITCZ behavior on multicentury timescales. Our results demonstrate that the ITCZ shifted southward during the Little Ice Age in the Atlantic basin in response to relative cooling of the Northern Hemisphere driven by volcanic forcing. This finding contrasts with studies suggesting that changes in ITCZ width and/or strength, rather than a change in mean position, occurred during the Little Ice Age. This reinforces the idea that ITCZ responses to external forcing are region specific.

Uncertainty about the influence of anthropogenic radiative forcing on the position and strength of convective rainfall in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) inhibits our ability to project future tropical hydroclimate change in a warmer world. Paleoclimatic and modeling data inform on the timescales and mechanisms of ITCZ variability; yet a comprehensive, long-term perspective remains elusive. Here, we quantify the evolution of neotropical hydroclimate over the preindustrial past millennium (850 to 1850 CE) using a synthesis of 48 paleo-records, accounting for uncertainties in paleo-archive age models. We show that an interhemispheric pattern of precipitation antiphasing occurred on multicentury timescales in response to changes in natural radiative forcing. The conventionally defined “Little Ice Age” (1450 to 1850 CE) was marked by a clear shift toward wetter conditions in the southern neotropics and a less distinct and spatiotemporally complex transition toward drier conditions in the northern neotropics. This pattern of hydroclimatic change is consistent with results from climate model simulations indicating that a relative cooling of the Northern Hemisphere caused a southward shift in the thermal equator across the Atlantic basin and a southerly displacement of the ITCZ in the tropical Americas, with volcanic forcing as the principal driver. These findings are at odds with proxy-based reconstructions of ITCZ behavior in the western Pacific basin, where changes in ITCZ width and intensity, rather than mean position, appear to have driven hydroclimate transitions over the last millennium. This reinforces the idea that ITCZ responses to external forcing are region specific, complicating projections of the tropical precipitation response to global warming.

Species richness and asynchrony maintain the stability of primary productivity against seasonal climatic variability

The stability of grassland communities informs us about the ability of grasslands to provide reliable services despite environmental fluctuations. There is large evidence that higher plant diversity and asynchrony among species stabilizes grassland primary productivity against interannual climate variability. Whether biodiversity and asynchrony among species and functional groups stabilize grassland productivity against seasonal climate variability remains unknown. Here, using 29-year monitoring of a temperate grassland, we found lower community temporal stability with higher seasonal climate variability (temperature and precipitation). This was due to a combination of processes including related species richness, species asynchrony, functional group asynchrony and dominant species stability. Among those processes, functional group asynchrony had the strongest contribution to community compensatory dynamics and community stability. Based on a long-term study spanning 29 years, our results indicate that biodiversity and compensatory dynamics a key for the stable provision of grassland function against increasing seasonal climate variability.

Resilience of the Central Indian Forest Ecosystem to Rainfall Variability in the Context of a Changing Climate

Understanding the spatio-temporal pattern of natural vegetation helps decoding the responses to climate change and interpretation on forest resilience. Satellite remote sensing based data products, by virtue of their synoptic and repetitive coverage, offer to study the correlation and lag effects of rainfall on forest growth in a relatively longer time scale. We selected central India as the study site. It accommodates tropical natural vegetation of varied forest types such as moist and dry deciduous and evergreen and semi-evergreen forests that largely depend on the southwest monsoon. We used the MODIS derived NDVI and CHIRPS based rainfall datasets from 2001 to 2018 in order to analyze NDVI and rainfall trend by using Sen’s slope and standard anomalies. The study observed a decreasing rainfall trend over 41% of the forests, while the rest of the forest area (59%) demonstrated an increase in rainfall. Furthermore, the study estimated drought conditions during 2002, 2004, 2009, 2014 and 2015 for 98.2%, 92.8%, 89.6%, 90.1% and 95.8% of the forest area, respectively; and surplus rainfall during 2003, 2005, 2007, 2011, 2013 and 2016 for 69.5%, 63.9%, 71.97%, 70.35%, 94.79% and 69.86% of the forest area, respectively. Hence, in the extreme dry year (2002), 93% of the forest area showed a negative anomaly, while in the extreme wet year (2013), 89% of forest cover demonstrated a positive anomaly in central India. The long-term vegetation trend analysis revealed that most of the forested area (>80%) has a greening trend in central India. When we considered annual mean NDVI, the greening and browning trends were observed over at 88.65% and 11.35% of the forested area at 250 m resolution and over 93.01% and 6.99% of the area at 5 km resolution. When we considered the peak-growth period mean NDVI, the greening and browning trends were as follows: 81.97% and 18.03% at 250 m and 88.90% and 11.10% at 5 km, respectively. The relative variability in rainfall and vegetation growth at five yearly epochs revealed that the first epoch (2001–2005) was the driest, while the third epoch (2011–2015) was the wettest, corresponding to the lowest vegetation vigour in the first epoch and the highest in the third epoch during the past two decades. The study reaffirms that rainfall is the key climate variable in the tropics regulating the growth of natural vegetation, and the central Indian forests are dominantly resilient to rainfall variation.

Eutrophication on Coral Reefs: What Is the Evidence for Phase Shifts, Nutrient Limitation and Coral Bleaching

Coral reefs continue to experience extreme environmental pressure from climate change stressors, but many coral reefs are also exposed to eutrophication. It has been proposed that changes in the stoichiometry of ambient nutrients increase the mortality of corals, whereas eutrophication may facilitate phase shifts to macroalgae-dominated coral reefs when herbivory is low or absent. But are corals ever nutrient limited, and can eutrophication destabilize the coral symbiosis making it more sensitive to environmental stress because of climate change? The effects of eutrophication are confounded not just by the effects of climate change but by the presence of chemical pollutants in industrial, urban, and agricultural wastes. Because of these confounding effects, the increases in nutrients or changes in their stoichiometry in coastal environments, although they are important at the organismal and community level, cannot currently be disentangled from each other or from the more significant effects of climate change stressors on coral reefs.

Influence of aquifer heterogeneity on sea level rise-induced seawater intrusion: A probabilistic approach

Seawater intrusion (SWI) is influenced by a variety of coastal phenomena, such as sea level rise (SLR), inundation of low-lying coastal regions, coastal storms, recharge rate variations, and pumping-induced saltwater upconing. Quantification of the influence of heterogeneity in the hydraulic conductivity field on SWI combined with SLR, land-surface inundation, and recharge rate variations in an unconfined aquifer is the main objective of the present study. The principal SWI indicators used in this study are length of the SWI wedge, seawater volume, and weighted average transition zone width. Characterized by the hydraulic conductivity field variance (σ_lnk²), the longitudinal correlation length (λ_x), the type of SLR (gradual or instantaneous SLR), the land-surface inundation consideration, and the recharge rate variations, 72 scenarios have been introduced, and for each of them, 50 sets of heterogeneous hydraulic conductivity fields have been generated. Based on two approaches, namely ensemble Monte-Carlo and a Bayesian framework, it is demonstrated that: (1) the land-surface inundation consideration increases the SWI wedge length and the seawater volume regardless of the type of SLR, while it decreases the weighted average transition zone width in gradual SLR scenarios; (2) λ_x has a more significant impact on SWI characteristics compared to σ_lnk²; (3) increasing the degree of aquifer heterogeneity results in larger effective dispersion values; (4) Numerical bootstrapping suggests that the introduced Bayesian framework could be adopted as an alternative to computationally demanding methods such as bootstrapping for stochastic analysis of SWI; (5) Reliability analysis indicates the general belief that considering the heterogeneity decreases the SWI wedge length and the seawater volume, while increases the transition zone width compared to the homogeneous modeling is associated with huge amounts of uncertainty proportional to the aquifer heterogeneity itself; and (6) the results show that the impact of heterogeneity on the SWI indicators is similar under different recharge rates.

Elevation Dependence of the Impact of Global Warming on Rainfall Variations in a Tropical Island

Due to their vulnerability, understanding the impacts of global warming on rainfall is important for a tropical country and islands. This research aimed to assess the impact of global warming on rainfall in Madagascar, using the Mann-Kendall test, continuous wavelet transform, and polynomial regression. The result showed that the annual, seasonal maximum, and minimum temperature increased, while elevation amplified the increase of maximum temperature. Different trends in rainfall were found in the 22 regions of Madagascar but in general, the increasing trend in rainfall was prominent at a higher elevation than lower elevation. The annual rainfall decreased up to −5 mm per year for the regions located below 450 m of altitude while increased up to +5 mm per year above 500 m. We found that the wet becomes wetter with an important increase in rainfall in summer and the increase in temperature influenced the rainfall. The annual rainfall increased with temperature and elevation. However, if the increase in temperature was more than 0.03 °C per year, the annual rainfall increased regardless of elevation. The knowledge of the elevation dependence of the impact of warming on rainfall is important for water resources management and climate change adaptation strategies, especially for island nations and African countries.

Short-term effects of rainfall on childhood hand, foot and mouth disease and related spatial heterogeneity: evidence from 143 cities in mainland China

BACKGROUND

Numerous studies have demonstrated the potential association between rainfall and hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD), but the results are inconsistent. This study aimed to quantify the relationship between rainfall and HFMD based on a multicity study and explore the potential sources of spatial heterogeneity.

METHODS

We retrieved the daily counts of childhood HFMD and the meteorological variables of the 143 cities in mainland China between 2009 and 2014. A common time series regression model was applied to quantify the association between rainfall and HFMD for each of the 143 cities. Then, we adopted the meta-regression model to pool the city-specific estimates and explore the sources of heterogeneity by incorporating city-specific characteristics.

RESULTS

The overall pooled estimation suggested a nonlinear exposure-response relationship between rainfall and HFMD. Once rainfall exceeded 15 mm, the HFMD risk stopped increasing linearly and began to plateau with the excessive risk ratio (ERR) peaking at 21 mm of rainfall (ERR = 3.46, 95% CI: 2.05, 4.88). We also found significant heterogeneity in the rainfall-HFMD relationships (I² = 52.75%, P < 0.001). By incorporating the city-specific characteristics into the meta-regression model, temperature and student density can explain a substantial proportion of spatial heterogeneity with I² statistics that decreased by 5.29 and 6.80% at most, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings verified the nonlinear association between rainfall and HFMD. The rainfall-HFMD relationship also varies depending on locations. Therefore, the estimation of the rain-HFMD relationship of one location should not be generalized to another location.

Hygric Niches for Tropical Endotherms

Biotic selective pressures dominate explanations for the evolutionary ecology of tropical endotherms. Yet, abiotic factors, principally precipitation regimes, shape biogeographical and phenological patterns in tropical regions. Despite its importance, we lack a framework for understanding when, why, and how rain affects endotherms. Here, we review how tropical birds and mammals respond to rain at individual, population, and community levels, and propose a conceptual framework to interpret divergent responses. Diverse direct and indirect mechanisms underlie responses to rainfall, including physiological, top-down, and food-related drivers. Our framework constitutes a roadmap for the empirical studies required to understand the consequences of rainfall variability. Identifying the patterns and mechanisms underpinning responses to temporal variation in precipitation is crucial to anticipate consequences of anthropogenic climate change.

An observation-constrained assessment of the climate sensitivity and future trajectories of wetland methane emissions

Wetlands are a major source of methane (CH₄) and contribute between 30 and 40% to the total CH₄ emissions. Wetland CH₄ emissions depend on temperature, water table depth, and both the quantity and quality of organic matter. Global warming will affect these three drivers of methanogenesis, raising questions about the feedbacks between natural methane production and climate change. Until present the large-scale response of wetland CH₄ emissions to climate has been investigated with land-surface models that have produced contrasting results. Here, we produce a novel global estimate of wetland methane emissions based on atmospheric inverse modeling of CH₄ fluxes and observed temperature and precipitation. Our data-driven model suggests that by 2100, current emissions may increase by 50% to 80%, which is within the range of 50% and 150% reported in previous studies. This finding highlights the importance of limiting global warming below 2°C to avoid substantial climate feedbacks driven by methane emissions from natural wetlands.

Growing-season temperature and precipitation are independent drivers of global variation in xylem hydraulic conductivity

Stem xylem-specific hydraulic conductivity (K_S ) represents the potential for plant water transport normalized by xylem cross section, length, and driving force. Variation in K_S has implications for plant transpiration and photosynthesis, growth and survival, and also the geographic distribution of species. Clarifying the global-scale patterns of K_S and its major drivers is needed to achieve a better understanding of how plants adapt to different environmental conditions, particularly under climate change scenarios. Here, we compiled a xylem hydraulics dataset with 1,186 species-at-site combinations (975 woody species representing 146 families, from 199 sites worldwide), and investigated how K_S varied with climatic variables, plant functional types, and biomes. Growing-season temperature and growing-season precipitation drove global variation in K_S independently. Both the mean and the variation in K_S were highest in the warm and wet tropical regions, and lower in cold and dry regions, such as tundra and desert biomes. Our results suggest that future warming and redistribution of seasonal precipitation may have a significant impact on species functional diversity, and is likely to be particularly important in regions becoming warmer or drier, such as high latitudes. This highlights an important role for K_S in predicting shifts in community composition in the face of climate change.

Estimated Impacts of Climate Change on Eddy Meridional Moisture Transport in the Atmosphere

Research findings suggest that water (hydrological) cycle of the earth intensifies in response to climate change, since the amount of water that evaporates from the ocean and land to the atmosphere and the total water content in the air will increase with temperature. In addition, climate change affects the large-scale atmospheric circulation by, for example, altering the characteristics of extratropical transient eddies (cyclones), which play a dominant role in the meridional transport of heat, moisture, and momentum from tropical to polar latitudes. Thus, climate change also affects the planetary hydrological cycle by redistributing atmospheric moisture around the globe. Baroclinic instability, a specific type of dynamical instability of the zonal atmospheric flow, is the principal mechanism by which extratropical cyclones form and evolve. It is expected that, due to global warming, the two most fundamental dynamical quantities that control the development of baroclinic instability and the overall global atmospheric dynamics—the parameter of static stability and the meridional temperature gradient (MTG)—will undergo certain changes. As a result, climate change can affect the formation and evolution of transient extratropical eddies and, therefore, macro-exchange of heat and moisture between low and high latitudes and the global water cycle as a whole. In this paper, we explore the effect of changes in the static stability parameter and MTG caused by climate change on the annual-mean eddy meridional moisture flux (AMEMF), using the two classical atmospheric models: the mid-latitude f-plane model and the two-layer β-plane model. These models are represented in two versions: “dry,” which considers the static stability of dry air alone, and “moist,” in which effective static stability is considered as a combination of stability of dry and moist air together. Sensitivity functions were derived for these models that enable estimating the influence of infinitesimal perturbations in the parameter of static stability and MTG on the AMEMF and on large-scale eddy dynamics characterized by the growth rate of unstable baroclinic waves of various wavelengths. For the base climate change scenario, in which the surface temperature increases by 1 °C and warming of the upper troposphere outpaces warming of the lower troposphere by 2 °C (this scenario corresponds to the observed warming trend), the response of the mass-weighted vertically averaged annual mean MTG is -0.2 ℃ per 1000 km. The dry static stability increases insignificantly relative to the reference climate state, while on the other hand, the effective static stability decreases by more than 5.4%. Assuming that static stability of the atmosphere and the MTG are independent of each other (using One-factor-at-a-time approach), we estimate that the increase in AMEMF caused by change in MTG is about 4%. Change in dry static stability has little effect on AMEMF, while change in effective static stability leads to an increase in AMEMF of about 5%. Thus, neglecting atmospheric moisture in calculations of the atmospheric static stability leads to tangible differences between the results obtained using the dry and moist models. Moist models predict ~9% increase in AMEMF due to global warming. Dry models predict ~4% increase in AMEMF solely because of the change in MTG. For the base climate change scenario, the average temperature of the lower troposphere (up to ~4 km), in which the atmospheric moisture is concentrated, increases by ~1.5 ℃. This leads to an increase in specific humidity of about 10.5%. Thus, since both AMEMF and atmospheric water vapor content increase due to the influence of climate change, a rather noticeable restructuring of the global water cycle is expected.

A low-cost hydrologic observatory for monitoring the water balance of small lakes

Global warming portends an accelerated water cycle as increased evaporation feeds atmospheric moisture and precipitation. To monitor effects on surface water levels, we describe a low-cost hydrologic observatory suitable for small to medium size lakes. The observatory comprises sensor platforms that were built in-house to compile continuous, sub-daily water budgets. The variables measured directly are lake stage (S), evaporation (E), and precipitation (P). A net inflow term (Q_net) is estimated as a residual in the continuity equation: ∆S = P - E + Q_net. We describe how to build in-lake stilling wells and floating evaporation pans using readily available materials. We assess their performance in laboratory tests and field trials. A 3-month deployment on a small Wisconsin lake (18 ha, 10 m deep) confirms that continuous estimates of ∆S, E, P, and Q_net can be made with good precision and accuracy at hourly time scales. During that deployment, daily estimates of E from the floating evaporation pans were comparable with estimates made using the more data-intensive Bowen ratio energy balance method and a mass transfer model. Since small lakes are numerically dominant and widely distributed across the globe, a network of hydrologic observatories would enable the calibration and validation of climate models and consumptive use policies at local and regional scales. And since the observatories are inexpensive and relatively simple to maintain, citizen scientists could facilitate the expansion of spatial coverage with minimal training.

Western U.S. lake expansions during Heinrich stadials linked to Pacific Hadley circulation

Lake and cave records show that winter precipitation in the southwestern United States increased substantially during millennial-scale periods of Northern Hemisphere winter cooling known as Heinrich stadials. However, previous work has not produced a clear picture of the atmospheric circulation changes driving these precipitation increases. Here, we combine data with model simulations to show that maximum winter precipitation anomalies were related to an intensified subtropical jet and a deepened, southeastward-shifted Aleutian Low, which together increased atmospheric river-like transport of subtropical moisture into the western United States. The jet and Aleutian Low changes are tied to the southward displacement of the intertropical convergence zone and the accompanying intensification of the Hadley circulation in the central Pacific. These results refine our understanding of atmospheric changes accompanying Heinrich stadials and highlight the need for accurate representations of tropical-extratropical teleconnections in simulations of past and future precipitation changes in the region.

Lake Tauca highstand (Heinrich Stadial 1a) driven by a southward shift of the Bolivian High

Heinrich events are characterized by worldwide climate modifications. Over the Altiplano endorheic basin (high tropical Andes), the second half of Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1a) was coeval with the highstand of the giant paleolake Tauca. However, the atmospheric mechanisms underlying this wet event are still unknown at the regional to global scale. We use cosmic-ray exposure ages of glacial landforms to reconstruct the spatial variability in the equilibrium line altitude of the HS1a Altiplano glaciers. By combining glacier and lake modeling, we reconstruct a precipitation map for the HS1a period. Our results show that paleoprecipitation mainly increased along the Eastern Cordillera, whereas the southwestern region of the basin remained relatively dry. This pattern indicates a southward expansion of the easterlies, which is interpreted as being a consequence of a southward shift of the Bolivian High. The results provide a new understanding of atmospheric teleconnections during HS1 and of rainfall redistribution in a changing climate.

Climate variability decreases species richness and community stability in a temperate grassland

Climate change involves modifications in both the mean and the variability of temperature and precipitation. According to global warming projections, both the magnitude and the frequency of extreme weather events are increasing, thereby increasing climate variability. The previous studies have reported that climate warming tends to decrease biodiversity and the temporal stability of community primary productivity (i.e., community stability), but the effects of the variability of temperature and precipitation on biodiversity, community stability, and their relationship have not been clearly explored. We used a long-term (from 1982 to 2014) field data set from a temperate grassland in northern China to explore the effects of the variability of mean temperature and total precipitation on species richness, community stability, and their relationship. Results showed that species richness promoted community stability through increases in asynchronous dynamics across species (i.e., species asynchrony). Both species richness and species asynchrony were positively associated with the residuals of community stability after controlling for its dependence on the variability of mean temperature and total precipitation. Furthermore, the variability of mean temperature reduced species richness, while the variability of total precipitation decreased species asynchrony and community stability. Overall, the present study revealed that species richness and species asynchrony promoted community stability, but increased climate variability may erode these positive effects and thereby threaten community stability.

South American monsoon response to iceberg discharge in the North Atlantic

Heinrich Stadials significantly affected tropical precipitation through changes in the interhemispheric temperature gradient as a result of abrupt cooling in the North Atlantic. Here, we focus on changes in South American monsoon precipitation during Heinrich Stadials using a suite of speleothem records covering the last 85 ky B.P. from eastern South America. We document the response of South American monsoon precipitation to episodes of extensive iceberg discharge, which is distinct from the response to the cooling episodes that precede the main phase of ice-rafted detritus deposition. Our results demonstrate that iceberg discharge in the western subtropical North Atlantic led to an abrupt increase in monsoon precipitation over eastern South America. Our findings of an enhanced Southern Hemisphere monsoon, coeval with the iceberg discharge into the North Atlantic, are consistent with the observed abrupt increase in atmospheric methane concentrations during Heinrich Stadials.