China's livestock transition: Driving forces, impacts, and consequences

Comprehensive assessment of refined greenhouse gas emissions from China's livestock sector

Livestock and poultry products are an essential human food source. However, the rapid development of the livestock sector (LS) has caused it to become a significant source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Consequently, investigating the spatio-temporal characteristics and evolution of GHG emissions is crucial to facilitate the green development of the LS and achieve "peak carbon and carbon neutrality". This study combined life cycle assessment (LCA) with the IPCC Tier II method to construct a novel GHG emissions inventory. The GHG emissions of 31 provinces in China from 2000 to 2021 were calculated, and their spatio-temporal characteristics were revealed. Then, the stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, and technology (STIRPAT) model was used to identify the main driving factors of GHG emissions in six regions of China and explore the emission reduction potential. The results showed that GHG emissions increased and then decreased from 2000 to 2021, following a gradual and steady trend. The peak of 628.55 Mt CO2-eq was reached in 2006. The main GHG-producing segments were enteric fermentation, slaughtering and processing, and manure management, accounting for 45.39 %, 26.34 %, and 23.08 % of total GHG emissions, respectively. Overall, the center of gravity of GHG emissions in China migrated northward, with spatial aggregation observed since 2016. The high emission intensity regions were mainly located west of the "Hu Huanyong line". Economic efficiency and emissions intensity were the main drivers of GHG emissions. Under the baseline scenario, GHG emissions are not projected to peak until 2050. Therefore, urgent action is needed to promote the low-carbon green development of the LS in China. The results can serve as scientific references for the macro-prevention and control of GHG emissions, aiding strategic decision-making. Additionally, they can provide new ideas for GHG accounting in China and other countries around the world.

A comprehensive review on agricultural waste utilization through sustainable conversion techniques, with a focus on the additives effect on the fate of phosphorus and toxic elements during composting process

The increasing trend of using agricultural wastes follows the concept of "waste to wealth" and is closely related to the themes of sustainable development goals (SDGs). Carbon-neutral technologies for waste management have not been critically reviewed yet. This paper reviews the technological trend of agricultural waste utilization, including composting, thermal conversion, and anaerobic digestion. Specifically, the effects of exogenous additives on the contents, fractionation, and fate of phosphorus (P) and potentially toxic elements (PTEs) during the composting process have been comprehensively reviewed in this article. The composting process can transform biomass-P and additive-born P into plant available forms. PTEs can be passivated during the composting process. Biochar can accelerate the passivation of PTEs in the composting process through different physiochemical interactions such as surface adsorption, precipitation, and cation exchange reactions. The addition of exogenous calcium, magnesium and phosphate in the compost can reduce the mobility of PTEs such as copper, cadmium, and zinc. Based on critical analysis, this paper recommends an eco-innovative perspective for the improvement and practical application of composting technology for the utilization of agricultural biowastes to meet the circular economy approach and achieve the SDGs.

No increase of soil wind erosion with the establishment of center pivot irrigation system in Mu-Us sandy land

Center Pivot Irrigation system (CPIs) is widely used in newly exploited arable land in sandy lands. These sandy lands are currently stable because of climate change and ecological restoration efforts since the beginning of the 21st century in northern China. The exploitation of these fixed sandy lands to arable land with CPIs may affect the soil wind erosion, yet it remains unknown. The temporal changes of CPIs and its effect on wind erosion module were analyzed and modeled from 2000 to 2020 in Mu-Us sandy land using satellite images and Revised Wind Erosion Equation (RWEQ). The establishment of CPIs started from 2010, boomed in 2015 and peaked in 2020. They were mainly transformed from woodland, grassland, and barren land near rivers in east and southeast, and from cropland in inter-dunes in west and southwest of Mu-Us sandy land. The temporal and spatial pattern of CPIs well aligns with the land consolidation and requisition-compensation balance policies. In most of the Mu-Us sandy land, the annual erosion module is <25 t ha-1 a-1. Despite great variation, the annual, Winter and Spring erosion module of the Mu-Us sandy land or in Otog Qian and Yuyang, the CPIs concentrated counties, all decreased during 2000-2019. Although, wind erosion module in CPIs was lower than the surrounding area, it increased in 2019 given the same climate conditions as in 2010. Our results suggest 1) the establishment of CPIs in Mu-Us sandy land greatly depends on the local policy and natural endowment, and 2) although the set-up of CPIs showed no impact on the wind erosion with CPIs accounting for <1 % of Mu-Us sandy land, post-harvest of CPIs should be carefully concerned to prevent soil wind erosion.

Water quality management could halve future water scarcity cost-effectively in the Pearl River Basin

Reducing water scarcity requires both mitigation of the increasing water pollution and adaptation to the changing availability and demand of water resources under global change. However, state-of-the-art water scarcity modeling efforts often ignore water quality and associated biogeochemical processes in the design of water scarcity reduction measures. Here, we identify cost-effective options for reducing future water scarcity by accounting for water quantity and quality in the highly water stressed and polluted Pearl River Basin in China under various socio-economic and climatic change scenarios based on the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Our modeling approach integrates a nutrient model (MARINA-Nutrients) with a cost-optimization procedure, considering biogeochemistry and human activities on land in a spatially explicit way. Results indicate that future water scarcity is expected to increase by a factor of four in most parts of the Pearl River Basin by 2050 under the RCP8.5-SSP5 scenario. Results also show that water quality management options could half future water scarcity in a cost-effective way. Our analysis could serve as an example of water scarcity assessment for other highly water stressed and polluted river basins around the world and inform the design of cost-effective measures to reduce water scarcity.

Industrialization Mitigates Greenhouse Gas Intensity in China's Dairy Sector yet May Prove Insufficient to Offset Emissions from Future Production Expansion

China's dairy farming is undergoing a critical transition from extensive to industrial systems. To achieve sustainable milk production within China's dual-carbon goals, understanding the multidimensional impacts of industrialization on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is imperative. This study comprehensively analyzed the implications of China's dairy industrialization on GHG emissions and explored future mitigation potential. Results indicated that industrial systems exhibited lower methane but higher carbon dioxide intensities, with net GHG intensity lower than other systems. During 2002-2020, China's milk production increased by 165%, while GHG emissions increased by 105% to 50.27 Tg CO2eq, accompanying an industrialization rate increased from 16% to 75%. The industrialization progress played a mitigating effect on GHG primarily through intensification within individual production systems before 2008 and transformation between systems post-2008. However, the industrialization's effect was relatively modest compared to other socio-economic factors. By 2030, 11.8 Tg CO2eq will be triggered by predicted milk production growth, but only 0.6 Tg can be offset by system transformation. Integrating measures to improve feed, herd, and manure management on industrial farms could decouple GHG emissions from milk production and achieve a carbon peak before 2030. We suggest transforming to improved industrial systems as a necessary step toward sustainable livestock production.

Understanding the roles of economy and society in the relative risks of zoonosis emergence from livestock

The emergence of zoonotic infections that can develop into pathogens of pandemic potential is a major concern for public health. The risks of emergence and transmission relate to multiple factors that range from land use to human-non-human animal contacts. Livestock agriculture plays a potentially significant role in those risks, shaping landscapes and providing hosts that can act as the source or amplifiers of emergent pathogens. The relative risks will be contingent upon the nature of those systems, with comparisons often made between intensive, indoor, biosecure systems and more extensive, outdoor, insecure systems. Microbiological, ecological and veterinary sciences provide useful entry points in specifying and modelling some of the relative risks. Yet, they often do so with little regard for social science inputs and by making assumptions about social and economic conditions. In this article, we respond to recent analyses of relative risks by raising the importance of social and economic drivers of risk. We chart social science insights and research that materially alter the zoonotic risks associated with livestock production. Our purpose is to emphasize the requirement for full appreciation of the social, economic and political components of zoonotic and pandemic risk.

Mitigation potential of methane emissions in China's livestock sector can reach one-third by 2030 at low cost

The mitigation of methane (CH4) emissions from livestock production is crucial to China's carbon neutrality. Here we established a high-spatiotemporal-resolution dataset of the country's livestock CH4 emissions from 1990 to 2020 using four large-scale national livestock greenhouse gas inventory surveys. We estimate CH4 emissions to be 14.1 ± 2.0 Mt in 2020 and to increase by 13% until 2030 despite CH4 intensity per kg animal protein having decreased by 55% in the past 30 years. Approximately half of the emissions come from 13% of all Chinese counties. The technical CH4 mitigation potential is projected to be 36 ± 8% (4.4-6.9 Mt CH4) in 2030, and reducing food loss and waste could mitigate an additional 1.6 Mt of CH4. Overall, most CH4 mitigation could be achieved by increasing animal productivity and coverage of lagoon storage at carbon prices below US$100 tCO2e-1, being more cost-effective than livestock nitrous oxide mitigation in China.

Spatiotemporal Analysis of Food Production-Demand Mismatch in China and Implications for Agricultural Structural Adjustment

Based on the food equivalent unit (FEU), this article analyzed Chinese food consumption patterns, spatial mismatch, and production potential to explore agricultural reform strategies. Assessing production-demand mismatch involved the spatial mismatch model, drawing data from statistical yearbooks. Calculations of food production potential utilized the CASA model and the Thornthwaite Memorial model, with net primary productivity (NPP) derived from remote sensing data as indicators. The results showed that livestock product consumption is on the rise, and the spatial mismatch index for herbivorous livestock products was the largest, ranging from 22.81 to 98.12 in 2019. The mismatched degree distribution of rations and food-consuming livestock products showed a trend of increasing on both sides, with the Hu Huanyong line as the center line. Production factors played a predominant role in food production-to-demand mismatch. Climatic productivity and actual productivity decreased from the southeast to northwest in space in 2019, and human activities significantly impacted productivity. When grassland agriculture is pursued as the adjustment orientation, the production potential can reach up to 4540.76 × 107 kg·FEU. Moreover, a grassland agriculture plan was devised, prioritizing its development in the developed southern regions.

Reduction in antimicrobial resistance in a watershed after closure of livestock farms

Natural environments play a crucial role in transmission of antimicrobial resistance (AMR). Development of methods to manage antibiotic resistance genes (ARGs) in natural environments are usually limited to the laboratory or field scale, partially due to the complex dynamics of transmission between different environmental compartments. Here, we conducted a nine-year longitudinal profiling of ARGs at a watershed scale, and provide evidence that restrictions on livestock farms near water bodies significantly reduced riverine ARG abundance. Substantial reductions were revealed in the relative abundance of genes conferring resistance to aminoglycosides (42%), MLSB (36%), multidrug (55%), tetracyclines (53%), and other gene categories (59%). Additionally, improvements in water quality were observed, with distinct changes in concentrations of dissolved reactive phosphorus, ammonium, nitrite, pH, and dissolved oxygen. Antibiotic residues and other pharmaceuticals and personal care products (PPCPs) maintain at a similarly low level. Microbial source tracking demonstrates a significant decrease in swine fecal indicators, while human fecal pollution remains unchanged. These results suggest that the reduction in ARGs was due to a substantial reduction in input of antibiotic resistant bacteria and genes from animal excreta. Our findings highlight the watershed as a living laboratory for understanding the dynamics of AMR, and for evaluating the efficacy of environmental regulations, with implications for reducing environmental risks associated with AMR on a global scale.

A genome-wide association study reveals novel loci and candidate genes associated with plant height variation in Medicago sativa

BACKGROUND

Plant height (PH) is an important agronomic trait influenced by a complex genetic network. However, the genetic basis for the variation in PH in Medicago sativa remains largely unknown. In this study, a comprehensive genome-wide association analysis was performed to identify genomic regions associated with PH using a diverse panel of 220 accessions of M. sativa worldwide.

RESULTS

Our study identified eight novel single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) significantly associated with PH evaluated in five environments, explaining 8.59-12.27% of the phenotypic variance. Among these SNPs, the favorable genotype of chr6__31716285 had a low frequency of 16.4%. Msa0882400, located proximal to this SNP, was annotated as phosphate transporter 3;1, and its role in regulating alfalfa PH was supported by transcriptome and candidate gene association analysis. In addition, 21 candidate genes were annotated within the associated regions that are involved in various biological processes related to plant growth and development.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings provide new molecular markers for marker-assisted selection in M. sativa breeding programs. Furthermore, this study enhances our understanding of the underlying genetic and molecular mechanisms governing PH variations in M. sativa.

An optimized crop-livestock system can achieve a safe and just planetary boundary for phosphorus at the sub-basin level in China

The contribution of crop and livestock production to the exceedance of the planetary boundary for phosphorus (P) in China is still unclear, despite the country's well-known issues with P fertilizer overuse and P-related water pollution. Using coupled models at sub-basin scales we estimate that livestock production increased the consumption of P fertilizer fivefold and exacerbated P losses twofold from 1980 to 2017. At present, China's crop-livestock system is responsible for exceeding what is considered a 'just' threshold for fertilizer P use by 30% (ranging from 17% to 68%) and a 'safe' water quality threshold by 45% (ranging from 31% to 74%) in 25 sub-basins in China. Improving the crop-livestock system will keep all sub-basins within safe water quality and just multigenerational limits for P in 2050.

The impact of environmental regulation and economic expectations on crop-livestock integration among hog farmers: a field study from China

Decoupling of crop-livestock systems increases the risks of pollution, waste of nutrient resources, and biodiversity loss. Crop-livestock integration (CLI) is an effective solution to these problems, and motivating farmers to adopt CLI is the key. Many countries have implemented environmental regulations (ER) aiming to influence farmers' CLI adoption decisions. Based on a field study of 316 hog farmers from Shaanxi Province of China, this paper applies the triple-hurdle model to empirically examine the impacts of economic expectations (EE) and ER on CLI adoption decisions. It also verifies the income effect of CLI. The results are as follows: 90.5% of farmers are willing to adopt CLI, but the adoption rate is only 40.8% and the average integration degree is only 0.236; CLI not been widely popularized. EE and ER promote farmers' CLI adoption significantly, while the impact of interaction between EE and ER on CLI adoption differs. IER weakens the positive impact of EE on farmers' CLI integration degree, which has a "crowding out effect." GER negatively moderates the impact of EE on farmers' adoption willingness of CLI. CER strengthens the positive effect of EE on farmers' adoption behavior and CLI integration degree. CLI increases the farmers' income. These results contribute to our understanding of the mechanisms of CLI adoption decisions and sustainable policy optimization for green agricultural development.

Convolutional neural network based on the fusion of image classification and segmentation module for weed detection in alfalfa

BACKGROUND

Accurate and reliable weed detection in real time is essential for realizing autonomous precision herbicide application. The objective of this research was to propose a novel neural network architecture to improve the detection accuracy for broadleaf weeds growing in alfalfa.

RESULTS

A novel neural network, ResNet-101-segmentation, was developed by fusing an image classification and segmentation module with the backbone selected from ResNet-101. Compared with existing neural networks (AlexNet, GoogLeNet, VGG16, and ResNet-101), ResNet-101-segmentation improved the detection of Carolina geranium, catchweed bedstraw, mugwort and speedwell from 78.27% to 98.17%, from 79.49% to 98.28%, from 67.03% to 96.23%, and from 75.95% to 98.06%, respectively. The novel network exhibited high values of confusion matrices (>90%) when trained with sufficient data sets.

CONCLUSION

ResNet-101-segmentation demonstrated excellent performance compared with existing models (AlexNet, GoogLeNet, VGG16, and ResNet-101) for detecting broadleaf weeds growing in alfalfa. This approach offers a promising solution to increase the accuracy of weed detection, especially in cases where weeds and crops have similar plant morphology. © 2024 Society of Chemical Industry.

Lead Isotope Signatures and Source Identification of Heavy Metals in Vegetable Soils Irrigated with Swine Wastewater of Jiangxi Province, China

The rapid development of livestock and poultry industry in China has caused serious environment pollution problems. To understand the heavy metals accumulation and identify their sources, 7 heavy metals contents and lead isotope ratios were determined in 24 soil samples from vegetable fields irrigated with swine wastewater in Dongxiang County, Jiangxi Province, China. The results showed that the concentration of Cr, Ni, Cu, Zn, As, Cd and Pb in the swine wastewater irrigated vegetable soils varied from 38.5 to 86.4, 7.57 to 30.6, 20.0 to 57.1, 37.5 to 174, 9.18 to 53.1, 0.043 to 0.274 and 12.8 to 37.1 mg/kg, respectively. The soils were moderately to heavily polluted by As, moderately polluted by Cr, Ni, Cu, Zn and Cd, and unpolluted to moderately polluted by Pb. Sampling soils were classified as moderately polluted according to the Nemerow comprehensive pollution index. Lead isotope and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) analysis indicated that swine wastewater irrigation and atmospheric deposition were the primary sources of the heavy metals.

Manure replacing synthetic fertilizer improves crop yield sustainability and reduces carbon footprint under winter wheat-summer maize cropping system

Manure replacing synthetic fertilizer is a viable practice to ensure crop yield and increase soil organic carbon (SOC), but its impact on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is inconsistent, thus remains its effect on CF unclear. In this study, a 7-year field experiment was conducted to assess the impact of replacing synthetic fertilizer with manure on crop productivity, SOC sequestration, GHG emissions and crop CF under winter wheat-summer maize cropping system. Five treatments were involved: synthetic nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium fertilizer (NPK) and 25%, 50%, 75%, and 100% of manure replacing synthetic N (25%M, 50%M, 75%M, and 100%M). Compared with NPK treatment, 25%M and 50%M treatments maintained annual yield (winter wheat plus summer maize) and sustainable yield index (SYI), but 75%M and 100%M treatments significantly decreased annual yield, and 100%M treatment also significantly reduced annual SYI. The SOC content exhibited a significant increasing trend over years in all treatments. After 7 years, SOC storage in manure treatments increased by 3.06-11.82 Mg ha-1 relative to NPK treatment. Manure treatments reduced annual GHG emissions by 14%-60% over NPK treatment. The CF of the cropping system ranged from 0.16 to 0.39 kg CO2 eq kg-1 of grain without considering SOC sequestration, in which the CF of manure treatments lowered by 18%-58% relative to NPK treatment. When SOC sequestration was involved in, the CF varied from -0.39 to 0.37 kg CO2 eq kg-1 of grain, manure treatments significantly reduced the CF by 22%-208% over NPK treatment. It was concluded that replacing 50% of synthetic fertilizer with manure was a sound option for achieving high crop yield and SYI but low CF under the tested cropping system.

Epiberberine: a potential rumen microbial urease inhibitor to reduce ammonia release screened by targeting UreG

Rumen microbial urease inhibitors have been proposed for regulating nitrogen emission and improving nitrogen utilization efficiency in ruminant livestock industry. However, studies on plant-derived natural inhibitors of rumen microbial urease are limited. Urease accessory protein UreG, plays a crucial role in facilitating urease maturation, is a new target for design of urease inhibitor. The objective of this study was to select the potential effective inhibitor of rumen microbial urease from major protoberberine alkaloids in Rhizoma Coptidis by targeting UreG. Our results showed that berberine chloride and epiberberine exerted superior inhibition potential than other alkaloids based on GTPase activity study of UreG. Berberine chloride inhibition of UreG was mixed type, while inhibition kinetics type of epiberberine was uncompetitive. Furthermore, epiberberine was found to be more effective than berberine chloride in inhibiting the combination of nickel towards UreG and inducing changes in the second structure of UreG. Molecular modeling provided the rational structural basis for the higher inhibition potential of epiberberine, amino acid residues in G1 motif and G3 motif of UreG formed interactions with D ring of berberine chloride, while interacted with A ring and D ring of epiberberine. We further demonstrated the efficacy of epiberberine in the ruminal microbial fermentation with low ammonia release and urea degradation. In conclusion, our study clearly indicates that epiberberine is a promising candidate as a safe and effective inhibitor of rumen microbial urease and provides an optimal strategy and suitable feed additive for regulating nitrogen excretion in ruminants in the future. KEY POINTS: • Epiberberine is the most effective inhibitor of rumen urease from Rhizoma Coptidis. • Urease accessory protein UreG is an effective target for design of urease inhibitor. • Epiberberine may be used as natural feed additive to reducing NH3 release in ruminants.

Sustainable Blue Foods from Rice-Animal Coculture Systems

Global interest grows in blue foods as part of sustainable diets, but little is known about the potential and environmental performance of blue foods from rice-animal coculture systems. Here, we compiled a large experimental database and conducted a comprehensive life cycle assessment to estimate the impacts of scaling up rice-fish and rice-crayfish systems in China. We find that a large amount of protein can be produced from the coculture systems, equivalent to ∼20% of freshwater aquaculture and ∼70% of marine wild capture projected in 2030. Because of the ecological benefits created by the symbiotic relationships, cocultured fish and crayfish are estimated to be carbon-negative (-9.8 and -4.7 kg of CO2e per 100 g of protein, respectively). When promoted at scale to displace red meat, they can save up to ∼98 million tons of greenhouse gases and up to ∼13 million hectares of farmland, equivalent to ∼44% of China's total rice acreage. These results suggest that rice-animal coculture systems can be an important source of blue foods and contribute to a sustainable dietary shift, while reducing the environmental footprints of rice production. To harvest these benefits, robust policy supports are required to guide the sustainable development of coculture systems and promote healthy and sustainable dietary change.

Impact of economic development on soil trace metal(loid)s pollution: A case study of China

Recently, intensive anthropogenic activities, while promoting economic growth, have also exacerbated soil trace metal(loid) (TM) pollution. To explore the impact of economic development on soil TM pollution, a time-weighted method was introduced to calculate the average concentrations of eight TMs in Chinese topsoil from 2001 to 2020, and panel data on TMs and economic factors of 31 provinces were used for regression analysis. The results revealed that the average concentrations of soil TMs all exceeded their respective soil background values. Meanwhile, the spatial distribution of soil TMs was characterized by obvious regional heterogeneity, with economically developed areas being heavily polluted and having high ecological risks. In addition, the results derived from panel data models showed that the relationship between soil TM pollution and economic development in China presented a continuous growth curve, but with an N-shaped pattern in eastern China, a U-shaped pattern in central China, and a positive linearity in western China. Four control variables were also introduced to evaluate their impact on TM pollution, and the results indicated that the proportion of secondary industry and the road area per capita were the major influencing factors. Ultimately, the inflection point estimation results suggested that the soil TM pollution level will increase in eastern China, central China and western China with ongoing economic growth. Our findings contribute to the current understanding of the relationship between soil TM pollution and anthropogenic activities, and provide a scientific basis for adjusting and planning industrial development and layout according to the characteristics of soil TM pollution.

Life-cycle comparisons of economic and environmental consequences for pig production with four different models in China

China, the world's largest consumer and producer of pork in the world, is attracting increasing attention due to the environmental impacts of its pig production. Previous studies seldom comprehensively compare the environmental impacts of the pig production system with different models, resulting in different intensities of environmental impacts. We aim to comprehensively evaluate Chinese pig production with different breeding models and explore a more sustainable way for pig production. We use life cycle assessment (LCA) to evaluate and compare environmental impacts of pig production system with four main breeding models in China from 1998 to 2020: domestic breeding, small-scale breeding, medium-scale breeding, and large-scale breeding. The life cycle encompasses fertilizer production, feed production, feed processing, pig raising, waste treatment, and slaughtering. The impact categories including energy consumption (EN), global warming (GWP), acidification (AP), eutrophication (EU), water use (WD), and land occupation (LO) are expressed with "100 kg live weight of fattening pig at farm gate." The results show that driven by governmental support, growing meat demand, and cost advantage, the scale breeding especially large-scale breeding simultaneously yielded greater net economic benefit and less environmental impact compared to other breeding models especially the domestic breeding. Due to mineral fertilizer application, feed production contributed over 50% of the total environmental impacts. Notably, the composition of feeds exerted significant influence on the environmental impacts arising from fertilizer production and feed processing. Furthermore, attributable to the substantial use of electricity and heat, as well as the concomitant emissions, pig raising contributed the largest GWP, while ranking second in terms of AP and EU. Notably, waste management constituted the third-largest EU, AP, and WD. In addition to promote scale breeding, we put forth several sustainable measures encompassing feed composition, cultivation practices, fertilizer utilization, and waste management for consideration.

Pervasive soil phosphorus losses in terrestrial ecosystems in China

Future phosphorus (P) shortages could seriously affect terrestrial productivity and food security. We investigated the changes in topsoil available P (AP) and total P (TP) in China's forests, grasslands, paddy fields, and upland croplands during the 1980s-2010s based on substantial repeated soil P measurements (63,220 samples in the 1980s, 2000s, and 2010s) and machine learning techniques. Between the 1980s and 2010s, total soil AP stock increased with a small but significant rate of 0.13 kg P ha-1  year-1 , but total soil TP stock declined substantially (4.5 kg P ha-1  year-1 ) in the four ecosystems. We quantified the P budgets of soil-plant systems by harmonizing P fluxes from various sources for this period. Matching trends of soil contents over the decades with P budgets and fluxes, we found that the P-surplus in cultivated soils (especially in upland croplands) might be overestimated due to the great soil TP pool compared to fertilization and the substantial soil P losses through plant uptake and water erosion that offset the P additions. Our findings of P-deficit in China raise the alarm on the sustainability of future biomass production (especially in forests), highlight the urgency of P recycling in croplands, and emphasize the critical role of country-level basic data in guiding sound policies to tackle the global P crises.

Decreasing resilience of China's coupled nitrogen-phosphorus cycling network requires urgent action

The coupled nature of the nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) cycling networks is of critical importance for sustainable food systems. Here we use material flow and ecological network analysis methods to map the N-P-coupled cycling network in China and evaluate its resilience. Results show a drop in resilience between 1980 and 2020, with further decreases expected by 2060 across different socio-economic pathways. Under a clean energy scenario with additional N and P demand, the resilience of the N-P-coupled cycling network would suffer considerably, especially in the N layer. China's socio-economic system may also see greater N emissions to the environment, thus disturbing the N cycle and amplifying the conflict between energy and food systems given the scarcity of P. Our findings on scenario-specific synergies and trade-offs can aid the management of N- and P-cycling networks in China by reducing chemical fertilizer use and food waste, for example.

The spatiotemporal pattern of surface ozone and its impact on agricultural productivity in China

The slowing of agricultural productivity growth globally over the past two decades has brought a new urgency to detect its drivers and potential solutions. We show that air pollution, particularly surface ozone (O3), is strongly associated with declining agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) in China. We employ machine learning algorithms to generate estimates of high-resolution surface O3 concentrations from 2002 to 2019. Results indicate that China's O3 pollution has intensified over this 18-year period. We coupled these O3 estimates with a statistical model to show that rising O3 pollution during nonwinter seasons has reduced agricultural TFP by 18% over the 2002-2015 period. Agricultural TFP is projected to increase by 60% if surface O3 concentrations were reduced to meet the WHO air quality standards. This productivity gain has the potential to counter expected productivity losses from 2°C warming.

City-level decoupling between livestock and crop production and its effect on fertilizer usage: Evidence from China

China is one of the largest producers of livestock production and also with tremendous fertilizer consumption in crop production, regional decoupling between livestock and crop production often results in fertilizer overuse and environmental pollution. However, city-level coupling analysis between livestock and crop production is rare, and its impact on fertilizer usage also remains unclear. Here, we evaluated the nitrogen (N) nutrient supply from the livestock breeding sector and the N nutrient demand of cropland during the 2007-2020 period in a typical agricultural region in China. The city-level coupling degree of livestock and crop production and the effect on fertilizer usage were explored with spatial analysis and regression methods. Our results show that the province level has a relatively high coupling degree. However, significant spatial heterogeneity was found at the city level, especially in western Sichuan Province due to the highly unbalanced distribution of livestock and crop production, and this decoupling phenomenon may hinder fertilizer reduction. Furthermore, we reveal that technological development is not an effective way to achieve sustainable agriculture without other policy instruments, such as livestock spatial relocation, which must be considered when formulating crop-livestock integration policies. The findings expand city-level knowledge of the livestock-crop system and provide important implications for adjusting agricultural practices to realize sustainable agricultural development.

Livestock greenhouse gas emission and mitigation potential in China

Livestock is an important source of greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE) in China. Understanding the greenhouse gas (GHG) emission trends and reduction strategies in livestock is crucial for promoting low-carbon transformation of the livestock sector (LS) and achieving the goal of "carbon peak and carbon neutralization". First, based on the life cycle assessment and IPCC coefficient methods, we calculated the GHGE of the LS in 31 provinces of China from 2000 to 2020 and identified the temporal and spatial evolution of GHG emission intensity. The LMDI method was then used to analyze the influence of efficiency, structure, economy, and population size on GHGE. Finally, the STIRPAT model was used to simulate the future evolution trend of the LS emissions under the SSPs scenario. The results revealed that the GHGE in the life cycle of livestock production decreased from 535.47 Mt carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) in 2000 to 532.18 Mt CO2e in 2020, and the main source was CH4 emissions from enteric fermentation of livestock. Economic and efficiency factors markedly influenced the changes in GHGE from the LS in China. Further, economic factors contributed >40% to the increase in GHGE in most provinces. Under the SSP1, SSP2, and SSP4 scenarios, livestock production can achieve the carbon peak target in 2030. Under the baseline scenario (SSP2), the GHGE of China's LS in 2030 and 2060 are expected to be 491.48 Mt CO2e and 352.11 Mt CO2e, respectively. The focus of mitigation measures for livestock production in the future is to optimize the production structure of the LS, promote the low-carbon transformation of the energy structure of livestock feeding, and establish an efficient and intensive management model. In addition, we focus on emission reduction in key areas, such as Northeast and Northwest China, while optimizing diet and reducing food waste from the consumer side.

Towards sustainability: An integrated life cycle environmental-economic insight into cow manure management

Waste management signifies an equilibrium between environmental and economic factors. However, a comprehensive understanding of the integrated life cycle environmental-economic performance of waste management activities remains unclear. To facilitate a systematic linkage between the economic and environmental sectors, a regionalized life cycle assessment-based life cycle costing method was developed based on China's actual status quo. The cow manure utilization was set as an entry point to explored long-term environmental-economic performance of milk production under various manure utilization pathways. The results show that trade-offs were observed between internal and external costs as well as various environmental indicators. The choice of waste utilization is the focal point of environmental-economic trade-offs in the cow raising system. The optimal environmental-economic performance was achieved through the manure fertilizer utilization pathway, yielding a remarkable three-fold increase in marginal environmental benefits. Compared with fertilizer utilization, the manure direct returning to field reduced the carbon footprint by 12% while induced an external cost of $14.3. The wastewater treatment pathway is $ 5.5 lower in internal costs but $ 11.7 higher in external costs than those of fertilizer utilization. Overall, utilizing manure has potential to mitigate the upward trend of carbon footprint and external costs. However, achieving the carbon peak remains a significant challenge. A promising solution is the recycling of straw resources within cropping systems, particularly in hotspot regions (e.g., Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang, Hebei, and Shandong). A comprehensive analysis of the dynamic interplay between cropping systems and cow raising systems is critical steps towards realizing a carbon-neutral future within the dairy production.

Green production efficiency of China's hog breeding industry: Spatial divergence and its driving factors

This paper analyzes the green production efficiency (GPE) and spatial divergence of the hog breeding industry, with the aim of providing a foundation for the rational layout of hog breeding and promoting the industry's high-quality development. The paper uses the SBM model to estimate GPE in 29 provinces, cities, and districts of China from 2006 to 2019. Furthermore, it analyzes the spatial divergence of GPE and its driving factors using divergence indexes and the Geodetector. The results show that China's GPE of the hog breeding industry increased from 0.409 to 0.496 between 2006 and 2019. The highest efficiency occurred during the I-period, while the lowest efficiency was observed during the II-period. The highest efficiency was in the key development region, and the lowest efficiency was in the potential growth region. The spatial divergence of GPE in the hog breeding industry expanded, with labor input, non-point source pollution, resource endowment, and environmental load bearing being the main driving factors for the expansion in each period. The potential growth region had the largest spatial divergence, mainly affected by resource endowment. In contrast, the constrained development region had the smallest spatial divergence, mainly affected by resource endowment and pollutant emissions. The spatial divergence of moderate and key development regions was considerable, mainly affected by environmental investment, environmental load bearing, and pollutant emissions. Therefore, the key to improving the GPE of the hog breeding industry is to promote the adoption of advanced technology, such as labor-saving, material-saving, and emission reduction technologies. Moreover, several actions should be taken to reduce the spatial divergence among different regions, such as integrated breeding, clean standards, large-scale breeding, and high-end boutique.

Mapping the spatial heterogeneity of global land use and land cover from 2020 to 2100 at a 1 km resolution

A fine global future land use/land cover (LULC) is critical for demonstrating the geographic heterogeneity of earth system dynamics and human-earth interaction. In this study, we produced a 1 km global future LULC dataset that takes into account future climate and socio-economic changes as well as the impact of simulated results of the former year on temporally adjacent periods. By incorporating the variations in climatic and socio-economic factors, we differentiated LULC suitability probabilities for historical and future periods across representative SSP-RCP scenarios. Then, by using an improved cellular automata model-PLUS to simulate the patch-level changes of various land classes, we iteratively downscaled water-basin-level LULC demands in various future scenarios to a spatial resolution of 1 km. Our dataset achieves a high degree of simulation accuracy (Kappa = 0.94, OA = 0.97, FoM = 0.10) and precisely captures the spatial-temporal heterogeneity of global LULC changes under the combined effects of climate change and socio-economic development. This robust and fine-scale LULC dataset provides valuable spatially-explicit information essential for earth system modeling and intricate dynamics between anthropogenic activities and the environment.

Investing in mini-livestock production for food security and carbon neutrality in China

Future food farming technology faces challenges that must integrate the core goal of keeping the global temperature increase within 1.5 °C without reducing food security and nutrition. Here, we show that boosting the production of insects and earthworms based on food waste and livestock manure to provide food and feed in China will greatly contribute to meeting the country's food security and carbon neutrality pledges. By substituting domestic products with mini-livestock (defined as earthworms and insects produced for food or feed) protein and utilizing the recovered land for bioenergy production plus carbon capture and storage, China's agricultural sector could become carbon-neutral and reduce feed protein imports to near zero. This structural change may lead to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 2,350 Tg CO2eq per year globally when both domestic and imported products are substituted. Overall, the success of mini-livestock protein production in achieving carbon neutrality and food security for China and its major trading partners depends on how the substitution strategies will be implemented and how the recovered agricultural land will be managed, e.g., free use for afforestation and bioenergy or by restricting this land to food crop use. Using China as an example, this study also demonstrates the potential of mini-livestock for decreasing the environmental burden of food production in general.

Resilience assessment of the nitrogen flow system in food production and consumption for sustainable development on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

A robust and resilient nitrogen (N) flow system can effectively ensure consistent food production and consumption activities while preserving environmental quality. In this study, we constructed an indicator system to evaluate N flow system resilience including food production and consumption, at the county scale on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) from 1998 to 2018. The subsystem coupling coordination degree (CCD) and the effect of N losses on N flow system resilience were subsequently explored. The results indicated that despite the overall N flow system resilience remaining low and exhibiting spatiotemporal disparities from 1998 to 2018, over 90 % of the counties experienced improvements. High resilience areas (>0.15) were mainly concentrated in some counties in Sichuan Province, where N losses were positively correlated with system resilience. The level of resilience depended on agricultural and livestock development, and the CCD of subsystems was also high (>0.5) in this region, with the most balanced environmental and socioeconomic development. The low system resilience areas were concentrated in the eastern part of the QTP, where human activities caused substantial disturbances. The fragmentation of the agro-pastoral system coupled with the low system resilience of the food production and driving pressure subsystems led to low CCD between subsystems. In contrast, the western regions, characterized by a stable food production system, high food self-sufficiency, and weak dependence on external systems, showed a higher degree of system resilience and resistance. Our findings provide a reference for N resource management and policy formulation for food production and consumption in the agricultural and pastoral areas of the QTP.

Exploring root system architecture and anatomical variability in alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.) seedlings

BACKGROUND

The growth of alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.) is significantly hampered by drought and nutrient deficiencies. The identification of root architectural and anatomical characteristics holds paramount importance for the development of alfalfa genotypes with enhanced adaptation to adverse environmental conditions. In this study, we employed a visual rhizobox system to investigate the variability in root system architecture (including root depth, root length, root tips number, etc.), anatomical features (such as cortical traits, total stele area, number and area of vessel, etc.), as well as nitrogen and phosphorus uptake across 53 alfalfa genotypes during the seedling stage.

RESULTS

Out of the 42 traits measured, 21 root traits, along with nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) uptake, displayed higher coefficients of variation (CVs ≥ 0.25) among the tested genotypes. Local root morphological and anatomical traits exhibited more significant variation than global root traits. Twenty-three traits with CVs ≥ 0.25 constituted to six principal components (eigenvalues > 1), collectively accounting for 88.0% of the overall genotypic variation. Traits such as total root length, number of root tips, maximal root depth, and others exhibited positive correlations with shoot dry mass and root dry mass. Additionally, total stele area and xylem vessel area showed positive correlations with N and P uptake.

CONCLUSIONS

These root traits, which have demonstrated associations with biomass and nutrient uptake, may be considered for the breeding of alfalfa genotypes that possess efficient resource absorption and increased adaptability to abiotic stress, following validation during the entire growth period in the field.

Agroecology, technology, and stakeholder awareness: Implementing the UN Food Systems Summit call for action

The global food system must meet the increasing demand for food, fiber, and energy while reducing environmental impacts. The UN Food System Summit (UNFSS) has made a clear call to action for a global food systems transformation. We argue that three major discrepancies remain, potentially delaying the urgent implementation of the call to action. First, Nature-based Solutions (NbS) are not sufficiently focused on agriculture, leading to funding allocation issues. Second, a mismatch of agroecology with technology innovations may slow scaling agroecological farming. Lastly, agricultural diversification must move beyond organic landscapes and into conventional agriculture. As a solution, principles of NbS should be clear on agricultural integration. Moreover, stakeholder awareness must increase that agroecology does not necessarily conflict with agricultural technologies. Future agricultural models must apply measures such as agricultural diversification in conjunction with technology innovations to then ascertain an overall timely and successful implementation of the UNFSS call to action.

Agricultural trade impacts global phosphorus use and partial productivity

The spatio-temporal distribution, flow and end use of phosphorus (P) embedded in traded agricultural products are poorly understood. Here we use global trade matrices to analyse the partial factor productivity of P (output per unit of P input) for crop and livestock products in 200 countries and their cumulative contributions to the export or import of agricultural products over 1961-2019. In these six decades, the trade of agricultural P products has increased global partial factor productivity for crop and livestock production and has theoretically saved 67 Tg P in fertilizers and 1.6 Tg P in feed. However, trade is now at risk of contributing to wasteful use of P resources globally due to a decline in trade optimality, as agricultural products are increasingly exported from low to high partial factor productivity countries and due to P embedded in imported agricultural products mainly lost to the environment without recycling. Integrated crop-livestock production systems and P-recycling technologies can help.

The potential capability of substituting chemical fertilizers with crop straw and human-livestock-poultry manure in areas with different topographic characteristics

Agricultural production and lifestyle are constrained by topography, causing notable under disparities in the composition, distribution, and environmental benefits of crop straw and human-livestock-poultry manure (CSHLPM) in areas with different topographic characteristics. Under the premise of the international consensus on sustainable development, it has become an objective requirement to improve the use of CSHLPM as fertilizer, and minimize the use of chemical fertilizers. Thus, an investigation was conducted to assess the difference in the quantity and composition of CSHLPM in plain, hill, and mountainous areas, taking Anhui Province of China as a case study, to evaluate the potential contribution of CSHLPM to farmland and identify the environmental benefits. The results show that the composition of CSHLPM in plain, hill, and mountainous areas varied greatly, and the reuse of CSHLPM in farmland could supplement, but not completely replace the use of chemical fertilizer to meet the needs of nutrients. In plain areas, CSHLPM did not provide the necessary amount of N and P2O5 for crop growth, whereas in mountainous areas, P2O5 was not available in adequate amounts for crop growth. Only in hilly areas can CSHLPM be used to completely replace chemical fertilizers and supply the necessary amounts of nutrients for crop growth. Based on the characteristics of different topographies, two constructive suggestions for improving the management strategy of CSHLPM were put forward: adjust the industrial structure of husbandry and planting, and specify the recommended ratios for mixing organic chemical fertilizers.

Low-opportunity-cost feed can reduce land-use-related environmental impacts by about one-third in China

Feeding animals more low-opportunity-cost feed products (LCFs), such as food waste and by-products, may decrease food-feed competition for cropland. Using a feed allocation optimization model that considers the availability of feed sources and animal requirements for protein and energy, we explored the perspectives of feeding more LCFs to animals in China. We found that about one-third of the animal feed consisted of human-edible products, while only 23% of the available LCFs were used as feed during 2009-2013. An increased utilization of LCFs (45-90 Mt) could potentially save 25-32% of feed-producing cropland area without impairing livestock productivity. Parallelly, about one-third of feed-related irrigation water, synthetic fertilizer and greenhouse gas emissions would be saved. Re-allocating the saved cropland could sustain the food energy demand of 30-185 million people. Achieving the potentials of increased LCF use requires improved technology and coordination among stakeholders.

Bibliographic mapping of animal genetic resources and climate change in farm animals

Bibliometric mapping is a tool that allows you to visualize the academic production, as well as the publication trends over the years. In this study, we carried out the bibliometric mapping of citation, co-occurrence of keywords, co-citation, and bibliographic coupling for "animal genetic resources" and "climate change." Scopus was used to obtain the publication information and VOSViewer software to produce the maps. A total of 1171 documents were found from authors in 129 countries from 1975 to 2022. The USA, UK, and China are the top three countries producing scientific research on the topics of animal genetic resources and climate change. China is the country with the most recent publications. The USA, the UK, and China stood out in almost all the analyses, but other Asian and Latin American countries appear more recently and are becoming more important in this scenario. Most of the work is related to studies involving animal adaptation, conservation, and genetic diversity; however, in recent years, there has been an increasing amount of research involving genetic engineering, such as the use of genetic sequencing and single nucleotide polimorphism (SNP). This study can help to understand new research trends in the area of animal genetic resources and climate change and can assist in the development of future actions within the research community.

The effects of fermented feedstuff derived from Citri Sarcodactylis Fructus by-products on growth performance, intestinal digestive enzyme activity, nutrient utilization, meat quality, gut microbiota, and metabolites of broiler chicken

This research aimed to assess the impact of fermented Citri Sarcodactylis Fructus by-products (FCSF) on the growth performance, gut digestive enzyme activity, nutrient utilization efficiency, gut microbiota, and their metabolites in broiler chickens. A total of 1,080 male broiler chickens were allocated into four groups (T1-T4) consisting of 6 replicates per group, each containing 45 chickens. The basal diet was provided to group T1, while groups T2, T3, and T4 were supplemented with 1%, 3%, and 5% FCSF in the basal diet, respectively. The experimental period was 42 days. The findings revealed that supplementing FCSF improved the FW and ADG of broiler chickens, and led to a reduction in the F/G, ADFI, and mortality rate of broiler chickens (p < 0.05). Furthermore, supplementation with 3% and 5% FCSF improved the thigh yield, semi-eviscerated carcass yield, slaughter yield, and lipase activity in the duodenum and ileum of birds (p < 0.05). Additionally, supplementing 3% FCSF enhanced the activity of protease in the duodenum of broilers (p < 0.05). Moreover, supplementing 3% FCSF enhanced the utilization of total phosphorus, dry matter, crude protein, and crude ash in the feed by broilers (p < 0.05). Compared with the control group, supplementation of 3% and 5% FCSF reduced the serine content in broiler chicken breast meat (p < 0.05). Supplementing 1% FCSF significantly increased the C14:0, C14:1, and C20:1 content in the breast meat compared to the other experimental groups (p < 0.05). The levels of C20:4n6 and C23:0 in the breast meat of birds of FCSF supplemented groups were lower than in T1 (p < 0.05). Furthermore, the content of ∑ω-3PUFA decreased after supplementing with 3% and 5% FCSF (p < 0.05). 16SrDNA showed that supplementing 3% FCSF reduced the ACE, Chao1, and Shannon indices in the cecum of birds (p < 0.05). Supplementing 3% FCSF also decreased the abundance of the phylum Desulfobacterota and improved genera Coprobacter and Prevotella in the cecum of broiler chickens (p < 0.05). Metabolomic analysis of the gut microbiota revealed that supplementing 3% FCSF upregulated 6 metabolites and downregulated 16 metabolites (p < 0.05). Moreover, supplementing 3% FCSF downregulated 12 metabolic pathways and upregulated 3 metabolic pathways (p < 0.05). In summary our findings indicate that supplementing FCSF can improve the growth performance of broiler chickens by enhancing intestinal digestive enzyme activity, nutrient utilization, improving gut microbial diversity, and influencing the metabolism of gut microbiota.

Does the agricultural co-agglomeration help reduce livestock and poultry pollution? From the perspective of planting and breeding combination in China

Given the problem of considerable livestock and poultry pollution and the differentiation of the regional agricultural layout in China, the combination of planting and breeding (CPB) forms an agricultural co-agglomeration to recycle manure waste into croplands to reduce livestock and poultry pollution. This study aims to evaluate CPB co-agglomeration and empirically examine its effects on livestock and poultry pollution. Based on provincial data from 1997 to 2020 in China, this study constructed three indicators to evaluate CPB co-agglomeration, summarized its temporal and spatial characteristics, and conducted a spatial analysis using the Spatial Lag Model (SLM) to empirically investigate its effect on livestock and poultry pollution. The results showed that: first, from 1997 to 2020, the overall level of CPB co-agglomeration in China declined and the region with higher CPB co-agglomeration level transferred from the central provinces to the west provinces. Second, livestock and poultry pollution in most provinces had significantly positive spatial correlations with adjacent regions. The co-agglomeration of CPB had a significantly positive effect on reducing livestock and poultry pollution; however, the effect had no significant spatial spillover. Third, the breeding industry agglomeration and the moderate expansion of breeding industry scale significantly reduced pollution. These findings provide a reference for reducing livestock and poultry pollution by promoting CPB co-agglomeration to establish a waste recycling system. Optimizing the layout of the planting and breeding industry helps achieve the goal of long-term sustainable development of the breeding industry.

Coupling of crop and livestock production can reduce the agricultural GHG emission from smallholder farms

Ensuring global food security and environmental sustainability is dependent upon the contribution of the world's hundred million smallholder farms, but the contributions of smallholder farms to global agricultural greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have been understudied. We developed a localized agricultural life cycle assessment (LCA) database to calculate GHG emissions and made the first extensive assessment of the smallholder farms' GHG emission reduction potentials by coupling crop and livestock production (CCLP), a redesign of current practices toward sustainable agriculture in China. CCLP can reduce the GHG emission intensity by 17.67%, with its own feed and manure returning to the field as an essential path. Scenario analysis verified that greater GHG emission reduction (28.09%-41.32%) will be achieved by restructuring CCLP. Therefore, this mixed farming is a mode with broader benefits to provide sustainable agricultural practices for reducing GHG emissions fairly.

Emergy synthesis of decoupling and recoupling crop-livestock systems under unified system boundary and modified indices

Sustainability assessment of integrated crop-livestock system was crucial for regulating and improving the complex agricultural system. Emergy synthesis (ES) is a suitable tool to assess the sustainability of integrated crop-livestock systems. However, the inconsistent system boundaries and limited assessment indicators caused to subjective and misleading results when comparing the recoupling and decoupling croplivestock models. Therefore, this study defined the rational system boundary of emergy accounting for the comparison of recoupling and decoupling crop-livestock complex systems. Meanwhile, the study designed an emergy-based indices system based on "3R" principles of circular economy. An integrated crop-livestock system including sweet maize cultivation and cow dairy farm in South China was selected as the case to compare sustainability of recoupling and decoupling models under the unified system boundary and modified indices. Results showed that the new ES framework could provide more rational assessment results when comparing the recoupling and decoupling crop-livestock systems. In addition, this study illustrated, through scenario simulation, that the recoupling maize-cow model could be further optimized by regulating the material flow between subsystems and adjusting the system structure. This study would promote the application of ES method in the field of agricultural circular economy.

Decoupling effect and driving factors of carbon footprint in megacity Wuhan, Central China

Background

China's 35 largest cities, including Wuhan, are inhabited by approximately 18% of the Chinese population, and account for 40% energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Wuhan is the only sub-provincial city in Central China and, as the eighth largest economy nationwide, has experienced a notable increase in energy consumption. However, major knowledge gaps exist in understanding the nexus of economic development and carbon footprint and their drivers in Wuhan.

Methods

We studied Wuhan for the evolutionary characteristics of its carbon footprint (CF), the decoupling relationship between economic development and CF, and the essential drivers of CF. Based on the CF model, we quantified the dynamic trends of CF, carbon carrying capacity, carbon deficit, and carbon deficit pressure index from 2001 to 2020. We also adopted a decoupling model to clarify the coupled dynamics among total CF, its accounts, and economic development. We used the partial least squares method to analyze the influencing factors of Wuhan's CF and determine the main drivers.

Results

The CF of Wuhan increased from 36.01 million t CO2eq in 2001 to 70.07 million t CO2eq in 2020, a growth rate of 94.61%, which was much faster than that of the carbon carrying capacity. The energy consumption account (84.15%) far exceeded other accounts, and was mostly contributed by raw coal, coke, and crude oil. The carbon deficit pressure index fluctuated in the range of 8.44-6.74%, indicating that Wuhan was in the relief zone and the mild enhancement zone during 2001-2020. Around the same time, Wuhan was in a transition stage between weak and strong CF decoupling and economic growth. The main driving factor of CF growth was the urban per capita residential building area, while energy consumption per unit of GDP was responsible for the CF decline.

Conclusions

Our research highlights the interaction of urban ecological and economic systems, and that Wuhan's CF changes were mainly affected by four factors: city size, economic development, social consumption, and technological progress. The findings are of realistic significance in promoting low-carbon urban development and improving the city's sustainability, and the related policies can offer an excellent benchmark for other cities with similar challenges.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13717-023-00435-y.

Chromosome-level genome assembly of the spotted alfalfa aphid Therioaphis trifolii

The spotted alfalfa aphid (SAA, Therioaphis trifolii) (Hemiptera: Aphididae) is a destructive pest of cultivated alfalfa (Medicago sativa L.) that leads to large financial losses in the livestock industry around the world. Here, we present a chromosome-scale genome assembly of T. trifolii, the first genome assembly for the aphid subfamily Calaphidinae. Using PacBio long-read sequencing, Illumina sequencing, and Hi-C scaffolding techniques, a 541.26 Mb genome was generated, with 90.01% of the assembly anchored into eight scaffolds, and the contig and scaffold N50 are 2.54 Mb and 44.77 Mb, respectively. BUSCO assessment showed a completeness score of 96.6%. A total of 13,684 protein-coding genes were predicted. The high-quality genome assembly of T. trifolii not only provides a genomic resource for the more complete analysis of aphid evolution, but also provides insights into the ecological adaptation and insecticide resistance of T. trifolii.

Comprehensive assessment of the utilization of manure in China's croplands based on national farmer survey data

China's rapid increase in mass excreta and its environmental discharge have attracted substantial attention. However, cropland as a main destination of excreta utilization has not been extensively evaluated. Here, a national survey was used to assess the utilization of manure in croplands across China. The data included the inputs of manure nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and potassium (K) for cereals, fruits, vegetables, and other crops, along with the manure proportion of total N, P, and K inputs at the county level. The results showed that the manure N, P, and K inputs were 6.85, 2.14, and 4.65 million tons (Mt), respectively, constituting 19.0%, 25.5%, and 31.1% of the total N, P, and K, respectively. The spatial distribution of the manure proportion of total inputs was lower in Eastern China and higher in Western China. The results provide a detailed description of the utilization of manure nutrients in agricultural areas throughout China, which will serve as basic support for policymakers and researchers involved in future agricultural nutrient management in China.

Sevenfold variation in global feeding capacity depends on diets, land use and nitrogen management

Harvested food carries a fraction of the nitrogen applied through fertilization; the remainder is typically lost into the environment, impairing planetary sustainability. Using a global agriculture model that integrates key drivers of food production and nitrogen cycling, we simulated upper bounds to global feeding capacity-and associated nitrogen pollution-as a function of nitrogen limitation under organic and industrial fertilization regimes. We found that the current agricultural area could feed ~8-20 billion people under unconstrained industrial fertilization and ca. 3-14 billion under organic fertilization. These ranges are inversely correlated with animal proteins in human diets, and are a function of feed-food competition, grassland-to-cropland allocation and-in the case of organic fertilization-nitrogen use efficiency. Improved nitrogen use efficiency is required to bring nitrogen pollution within planetary sustainability limits and is also essential in narrowing down food productivity gaps between organic and industrial fertilization regimes.

Ageing threatens sustainability of smallholder farming in China

Rapid demographic ageing substantially affects socioeconomic development1-4 and presents considerable challenges for food security and agricultural sustainability5-8, which have so far not been well understood. Here, by using data from more than 15,000 rural households with crops but no livestock across China, we show that rural population ageing reduced farm size by 4% through transferring cropland ownership and land abandonment (approximately 4 million hectares) in 2019, taking the population age structure in 1990 as a benchmark. These changes led to a reduction of agricultural inputs, including chemical fertilizers, manure and machinery, which decreased agricultural output and labour productivity by 5% and 4%, respectively, further lowering farmers' income by 15%. Meanwhile, fertilizer loss increased by 3%, resulting in higher pollutant emissions to the environment. In new farming models, such as cooperative farming, farms tend to be larger and operated by younger farmers, who have a higher average education level, hence improving agricultural management. By encouraging the transition to new farming models, the negative consequences of ageing can be reversed. Agricultural input, farm size and farmer's income would grow by approximately 14%, 20% and 26%, respectively, and fertilizer loss would reduce by 4% in 2100 compared with that in 2020. This suggests that management of rural ageing will contribute to a comprehensive transformation of smallholder farming to sustainable agriculture in China.

A Global Database of Soil Plant Available Phosphorus

Soil phosphorus drives food production that is needed to feed a growing global population. However, knowledge of plant available phosphorus stocks at a global scale is poor but needed to better match phosphorus fertiliser supply to crop demand. We collated, checked, converted, and filtered a database of c. 575,000 soil samples to c. 33,000 soil samples of soil Olsen phosphorus concentrations. These data represent the most up-to-date repository of freely available data for plant available phosphorus at a global scale. We used these data to derive a model (R² = 0.54) of topsoil Olsen phosphorus concentrations that when combined with data on bulk density predicted the distribution and global stock of soil Olsen phosphorus. We expect that these data can be used to not only show where plant available P should be boosted, but also where it can be drawn down to make more efficient use of fertiliser phosphorus and to minimise likely phosphorus loss and degradation of water quality.

Food Nitrogen Footprint Increased by 35% on the Third Pole During 1998-2018

The N footprint is considered as an indicator of potential environmental damage from N. Quantitative analysis of N footprint distribution, sources and drivers can help mitigate its negative impacts and promote sustainable N management. In this study, we constructed a city-scale food N footprint (FNF) framework for the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) using a N mass balance approach. We quantitatively analyzed the FNF during food production and consumption on the QTP from 1998 to 2018. We used the logarithmic mean Divisa index decomposition method to analyze the driving forces of the FNF, and the decoupling of the FNF. The results showed that the per capita FNF of the QTP increased from 24.92 kg N cap^-1 in 1998 to 27.70 kg N cap^-1 in 2018, and the total FNF increased by 35.11% from 1998 to 2018. The spatial distribution of the FNF was uneven, with N losses from crop production and animal production being the leading contributing source to the FNF (86%). Economic development and urbanization were the main driving forces behind the FNF increase, while N consumption intensity inhibited the growth of the FNF. With the rapid growth of GDP, the FNF in the eastern part of the QTP grew relatively slowly, indicating a gradual decoupling of the FNF from economic development. To reconcile the relationship between socioeconomic drivers and the FNF, it is necessary to focus on coupling relationships between subsystems within the food production and consumption system to promote N recycling.

Cropland: Surplus or Deficit? From the Perspective of Meeting People's Grain Requirement

The quantity and quality of cropland plays an important role in ensuring food security. In order to explore spatiotemporal patterns of the extent to which cropland satisfies people's grain need, we integrate multi-source heterogeneous data to investigate in which era, and in which region, the cultivated land can meet people's food demands. It turns out that in the past 30 years, with the exception of the late 1980s, the amount of cropland could satisfy people's grain needs at the nation scale. However, more than 10 provinces (municipality/autonomous region), mainly located in western China and southeast coastal areas, have been unable to meet the grain needs of local people. We projected the guarantee rate to the late 2020s. Our study concludes that the guarantee rate of cropland is estimated to be higher than 150% in China. Compared to 2019, except Beijing, Tianjin, Liaoning, Jilin, Ningxia, as well as Heilongjiang in the Sustainability scenario, and Shanghai in the Sustainability and the Equality scenarios, the guarantee rate of cultivated land will increase in every province (municipality/autonomous region) in 2030. This study has reference value for the study of China's cultivated land protection system, as well as important significance for China's sustainable development.

The Development of Smart Dairy Farm System and Its Application in Nutritional Grouping and Mastitis Prediction

In order to study the smart management of dairy farms, this study combined Internet of Things (IoT) technology and dairy farm daily management to form an intelligent dairy farm sensor network and set up a smart dairy farm system (SDFS), which could provide timely guidance for dairy production. To illustrate the concept and benefits of the SDFS, two application scenarios were sampled: (1) Nutritional grouping (NG): grouping cows according to the nutritional requirements by considering parities, days in lactation, dry matter intake (DMI), metabolic protein (MP), net energy of lactation (NEL), etc. By supplying feed corresponding to nutritional needs, milk production, methane and carbon dioxide emissions were compared with those of the original farm grouping (OG), which was grouped according to lactation stage. (2) Mastitis risk prediction: using the dairy herd improvement (DHI) data of the previous 4 lactation months of the dairy cows, logistic regression analysis was applied to predict dairy cows at risk of mastitis in successive months in order to make suitable measurements in advance. The results showed that compared with OG, NG significantly increased milk production and reduced methane and carbon dioxide emissions of dairy cows (p < 0.05). The predictive value of the mastitis risk assessment model was 0.773, with an accuracy of 89.91%, a specificity of 70.2%, and a sensitivity of 76.3%. By applying the intelligent dairy farm sensor network and establishing an SDFS, through intelligent analysis, full use of dairy farm data would be made to achieve higher milk production of dairy cows, lower greenhouse gas emissions, and predict in advance the occurrence of mastitis of dairy cows.

Water Self-Purification with Zero External Consumption by Livestock Manure Resource Utilization

Improper disposal of waste biomass and an increasing number of emerging contaminants (ECs) in water environment are universal threats to the global environment. Here, we creatively propose a sustainable strategy for the direct resource transformation of livestock manure (LM) into an innovative catalyst (Fe-CCM) for water self-purification with zero external consumption. ECs can be rapidly degraded in this self-purification system at ambient temperature and atmospheric pressure, without any external oxidants or energy input, accompanied by H₂O and dissolved oxygen (DO) activation. The performance of the self-purification system is not affected by various types of salinity in the wastewater, and the corresponding second-order kinetic constant is improved 7 times. The enhanced water self-purification mechanism reveales that intermolecular forces between anions and pollutants reinforce electron exchange between pollutants and metal sites on the catalyst, further inducing the utilization of the intrinsic energy of contaminants, H₂O, and DO through the interfacial reaction. This work provides new insights into the rapid removal of ECs in complicated water systems with zero external consumption and is expected to advance the resource utilization of livestock waste.

ARSCP: An antimicrobial residue surveillance cloud platform for animal-derived foods

Antibiotics have been widely used for improving human and animal health and well-being for many decades. However, the enormous antibiotic usage in agriculture especially for livestock leads to considerable quantities of antibiotic residues in associated food products and can reach potentially hazardous levels for consumers. Therefore, timely detection and systematical surveillance on residual antibiotics in food materials are of significance to minimize the negative impact caused by such unwanted antibiotic leftovers. To this end, we constructed a cloud-platform-based system (ARSCP) for comprehensive surveillance of antibiotic residues in food materials. With the system, we collected 126,560 samples from 68 chicken farms across China and detected the antibiotic residues using a rapid detection colorimetric commercial (Explorer 2.0) kit and UPLC-MS/MS. Only 108 (0.085 %) of the samples contained residual antibiotics exceeding the MRLs and all data were subjected to ARSCP system to provide a landscape of antibiotic residues in China. As a proof-of-concept, we provided an overview of residual antibiotics based on data from China, but the system is generally applicable to track and monitor the antibiotic residues globally when the data from other countries are incorporated. We used the combined Explorer 2.0 and MS data to construct ARSCP, an antimicrobial residue surveillance cloud platform for raw chicken samples. ARSCP can be used for rapid detection and real-time monitoring of antibiotic residues in animal food and provides both data management and risk warning functions. This system provides a solution to improve the management of facilities that must monitor antibiotic MRLs in food animal products that can reduce the pollution of antibiotics to the environment.