Glacial changes in tropical climate amplified by the Indian Ocean

Last Glacial Maximum pattern effects reduce climate sensitivity estimates

Here, we show that the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) provides a stronger constraint on equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), the global warming from increasing greenhouse gases, after accounting for temperature patterns. Feedbacks governing ECS depend on spatial patterns of surface temperature ("pattern effects"); hence, using the LGM to constrain future warming requires quantifying how temperature patterns produce different feedbacks during LGM cooling versus modern-day warming. Combining data assimilation reconstructions with atmospheric models, we show that the climate is more sensitive to LGM forcing because ice sheets amplify extratropical cooling where feedbacks are destabilizing. Accounting for LGM pattern effects yields a median modern-day ECS of 2.4°C, 66% range 1.7° to 3.5°C (1.4° to 5.0°C, 5 to 95%), from LGM evidence alone. Combining the LGM with other lines of evidence, the best estimate becomes 2.9°C, 66% range 2.4° to 3.5°C (2.1° to 4.1°C, 5 to 95%), substantially narrowing uncertainty compared to recent assessments.

Modulation of the northward penetration of Antarctica intermediate waters into the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean under glacial and interglacial conditions

The Indo-Pacific warm pool is the warmest and most dynamic ocean-atmosphere-climate system on Earth and was subject to significant climate changes during the Pleistocene glacial-interglacial transitions. This has been shown to significantly affected the strength of surface waters that redistribute heat from the tropics to the southern part of the Indian Ocean. Here we investigate the response of the oceanic circulation at intermediate depth (1200 m) of the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean (EEIO) with neodymium (Nd) isotopes in the context of the climatic oscillation of the last 500 ka. The most striking feature of our new dataset is the seesaw Nd record that mimics glacial-interglacial cycles. While the interglacial periods are characterized by a higher contribution of the less radiogenic neodymium (~ - 7εNd) Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW), the glacial periods are characterized by more radiogenic water mass of Pacific origin (~ - 5εNd). To explain the increase in the εNd signature toward a more radiogenic signature as the Indo-Pacific connection is reduced under the low sea level of the glacial periods, we show that under global cooling, the AAIW advances northward into the tropics, which is a consequence of the general slowdown of the thermohaline circulation. Therefore, oceanic mixing at intermediate depth in the eastern tropical Indian intermediate water is modulated by the production rate of the AAIW in the Southern Ocean. Our study provides new evidence for the role that changes in the deep oceanic conditions play in amplifying externally forced climate changes that ultimately lead to drier/moister atmospheric conditions and weaker/stronger monsoons during glacial/interglacial periods over eastern tropical Indian Ocean.

The strength, position, and width changes of the intertropical convergence zone since the Last Glacial Maximum

The intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) plays a key role in regulating tropical hydroclimate and global water cycle through changes in its convection strength, latitudinal position, and width. The long-term variability of the ITCZ, along with the corresponding driving mechanisms, however, remains obscure, mainly because it is difficult to separate different ITCZ variables in paleoclimate proxy records. Here, we report a speleothem oxygen isotope (δ18O) record from southwestern Sulawesi, Indonesia, and compile it with other speleothem records from the Maritime Continent. Using the spatial gradient of speleothem δ18O along a transect across the ITCZ, we constrain ITCZ variabilities over the Maritime Continent during the past 30,000 y. We find that ITCZ convection strength overall intensified from the last glacial period to the Holocene, following changes in climate boundary conditions. The mean position of the regional ITCZ has moved latitudinally no more than 3° in the past 30,000 y, consistent with the deduction from the atmospheric energy framework. However, different from modern observations and model simulations for future warming, the ITCZ appeared narrower during both the late Holocene and most part of the last glacial period, and its expansion occurred during Heinrich stadials and the early-to-mid Holocene. We also find that during the last glacial and deglacial period, prominent millennial-scale ITCZ changes were closely tied to the variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), whereas during the Holocene, they were predominantly modulated by the long-term variability of the Walker circulation.

A multicentennial mode of North Atlantic climate variability throughout the Last Glacial Maximum

Paleoclimate proxy records from the North Atlantic region reveal substantially greater multicentennial temperature variability during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) compared to the current interglacial. As there was no obvious change in external forcing, causes for the increased variability remain unknown. Exploiting LGM simulations with a comprehensive coupled climate model along with high-resolution proxy records, we introduce an oscillatory mode of multicentennial variability, which is associated with moderate variations in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and depends on the large-scale salinity distribution. This self-sustained mode is amplified by sea-ice feedbacks and induces maximum surface temperature variability in the subpolar North Atlantic region. Characterized by a distinct climatic imprint and different dynamics, the multicentennial oscillation has to be distinguished from Dansgaard-Oeschger variability and emerges only under full LGM climate forcing. The potential of multicentennial modes of variability to emerge or disappear in response to changing climate forcing may have implications for future climate change.

Reversed Holocene temperature-moisture relationship in the Horn of Africa

Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to severely impact the global hydrological cycle1, particularly in tropical regions where agriculture-based economies depend on monsoon rainfall2. In the Horn of Africa, more frequent drought conditions in recent decades3,4 contrast with climate models projecting precipitation to increase with rising temperature5. Here we use organic geochemical climate-proxy data from the sediment record of Lake Chala (Kenya and Tanzania) to probe the stability of the link between hydroclimate and temperature over approximately the past 75,000 years, hence encompassing a sufficiently wide range of temperatures to test the 'dry gets drier, wet gets wetter' paradigm6 of anthropogenic climate change in the time domain. We show that the positive relationship between effective moisture and temperature in easternmost Africa during the cooler last glacial period shifted to negative around the onset of the Holocene 11,700 years ago, when the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration exceeded 250 parts per million and mean annual temperature approached modern-day values. Thus, at that time, the budget between monsoonal precipitation and continental evaporation7 crossed a tipping point such that the positive influence of temperature on evaporation became greater than its positive influence on precipitation. Our results imply that under continued anthropogenic warming, the Horn of Africa will probably experience further drying, and they highlight the need for improved simulation of both dynamic and thermodynamic processes in the tropical hydrological cycle.

Cooling-induced expansions of Afromontane forests in the Horn of Africa since the Last Glacial Maximum

Understanding the changing plant ecosystems that existed in East Africa over the past millennia is crucial for identifying links between habitats and past human adaptation and dispersal across the region. In the Horn of Africa, this task is hampered by the scarcity of fossil botanical data. Here we present modelled past vegetation distributions in Ethiopia from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to present at high spatial and temporal resolution. The simulations show that, contrary to long-standing hypotheses, the area covered by Afromontane forests during the Late Glacial was significantly larger than at present. The combined effect of low temperatures and the relative rainfall contribution sourced from the Congo Basin and Indian Ocean, emerges as the mechanism that controlled the migration of Afromontane forests to lower elevations. This process may have enabled the development of continuous forest corridors connecting populations that are currently isolated in mountainous areas over the African continent. Starting with the Holocene, the expansion of forests began to reverse. This decline intensified over the second half of the Holocene leading to a retreat of the forests to higher elevations where they are restricted today. The simulations are consistent with proxy data derived from regional pollen records and provide a key environmental and conceptual framework for human environmental adaptation research.

Indian Ocean salinity build-up primes deglacial ocean circulation recovery

The Indian Ocean provides a source of salt for North Atlantic deep-water convection sites, via the Agulhas Leakage, and may thus drive changes in the ocean's overturning circulation1-3. However, little is known about the salt content variability of Indian Ocean and Agulhas Leakage waters during past glacial cycles and how this may influence circulation. Here we show that the glacial Indian Ocean surface salt budget was notably different from the modern, responding dynamically to changes in sea level. Indian Ocean surface salinity increased during glacial intensification, peaking in glacial maxima. We find that this is due to rapid land exposure in the Indonesian archipelago induced by glacial sea-level lowering, and we suggest a mechanistic link via reduced input of relatively fresh Indonesian Throughflow waters into the Indian Ocean. Using climate model results, we show that the release of this glacial Indian Ocean salinity via the Agulhas Leakage during deglaciation can directly impact the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and global climate.

Middle Pleistocene re-organization of Australian Monsoon

The sensitivity of the Australian Monsoon to changing climate boundary conditions remains controversial due to limited understanding of forcing processes and past variability. Here, we reconstruct austral summer monsoonal discharge and wind-driven winter productivity across the Middle Pleistocene Transition (MPT) in a sediment sequence drilled off NW Australia. We show that monsoonal precipitation and runoff primarily responded to precessional insolation forcing until ~0.95 Ma, but exhibited heightened sensitivity to ice volume and pCO₂ related feedbacks following intensification of glacial-interglacial cycles. Our records further suggest that summer monsoon variability at the precessional band was closely tied to the thermal evolution of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool and strength of the Walker circulation over the past ~1.6 Myr. By contrast, productivity proxy records consistently tracked glacial-interglacial variability, reflecting changing rhythms in polar ice fluctuations and Hadley circulation strength. We conclude that the Australian Monsoon underwent a major re-organization across the MPT and that extratropical feedbacks were instrumental in driving short- and long-term variability.

North Atlantic cooling triggered a zonal mode over the Indian Ocean during Heinrich Stadial 1

Abrupt changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) are thought to affect tropical hydroclimate through adjustment of the latitudinal position of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1) involves the largest AMOC reduction in recent geological time; however, over the tropical Indian Ocean (IO), proxy records suggest zonal anomalies featuring intense, widespread drought in tropical East Africa versus generally wet but heterogeneous conditions in the Maritime Continent. Here, we synthesize proxy data and an isotope-enabled transient deglacial simulation and show that the southward ITCZ shift over the eastern IO during HS1 strengthens IO Walker circulation, triggering an east-west precipitation dipole across the basin. This dipole reverses the zonal precipitation anomalies caused by the exposed Sunda and Sahul shelves due to glacial lower sea level. Our study illustrates how zonal modes of atmosphere-ocean circulation can amplify or reverse global climate anomalies, highlighting their importance for future climate change.

Giant clam (Tridacna) distribution in the Gulf of Oman in relation to past and future climate

The Oman upwelling zone (OUZ) creates an unfavorable environment and a major biogeographic barrier for many coral reef species, such as giant clams, thus promoting and maintaining faunal differences among reefs on the east and west side of the Arabian Peninsula. We record the former existence of Tridacna in the Gulf of Oman and review its stratigraphic distribution in the Persian Gulf to provide new insights on the connectivity of coral reef habitats around southern Arabia under changing climate and ocean conditions. Fossil shells were carbon-14 dated and employed as sclerochronological proxy archives. This reveals that the Omani population represents a last glacial colonization event during the Marine Isotope Stage 3 interstadial under colder-than-present temperatures and variable upwelling intensity linked to Dansgaard-Oeschger climate oscillations. It was favored by temperatures just above the lower threshold for the habitat-forming reef coral communities and instability of the upwelling barrier. We conclude that the distribution of Tridacna in the northern Arabian Sea is generally limited by either strong upwelling or cool sea surface temperature under gradually changing climate conditions at the interglacial-glacial scale. Opportunities for dispersal and temporary colonization existed only when there was a simultaneous attenuation of both limiting factors due to high-frequency climate variability. The OUZ will unlikely become a future climate change refuge for giant clams because they will be exposed either to thermal stress by rapid anthropogenic Indian Ocean warming or to unfavorable upwelling conditions.

Pleistocene drivers of Northwest African hydroclimate and vegetation

Savanna ecosystems were the landscapes for human evolution and are vital to modern Sub-Saharan African food security, yet the fundamental drivers of climate and ecology in these ecosystems remain unclear. Here we generate plant-wax isotope and dust flux records to explore the mechanistic drivers of the Northwest African monsoon, and to assess ecosystem responses to changes in monsoon rainfall and atmospheric pCO₂. We show that monsoon rainfall is controlled by low-latitude insolation gradients and that while increases in precipitation are associated with expansion of grasslands into desert landscapes, changes in pCO₂ predominantly drive the C₃/C₄ composition of savanna ecosystems.

The climate and vegetation backdrop to hominin evolution in Africa

The most profound shift in the African hydroclimate of the last 1 million years occurred around 300 thousand years (ka) ago. This change in African hydroclimate is manifest as an east-west change in moisture balance that cannot be fully explained through linkages to high latitude climate systems. The east-west shift is, instead, probably driven by a shift in the tropical Walker Circulation related to sea surface temperature change driven by orbital forcing. Comparing records of past vegetation change, and hominin evolution and development, with this breakpoint in the climate system is challenging owing to the paucity of study sites available and uncertainties regarding the dating of records. Notwithstanding these uncertainties we find that, broadly speaking, both vegetation and hominins change around 300 ka. The vegetative backdrop suggests that relative abundance of vegetative resources shifted from western to eastern Africa, although resources would have persisted across the continent. The climatic and vegetation changes probably provided challenges for hominins and are broadly coincident with the appearance of Homo sapiens (ca 315 ka) and the emergence of Middle Stone Age technology. The concomitant changes in climate, vegetation and hominin evolution suggest that these factors are closely intertwined. This article is part of the theme issue 'Tropical forests in the deep human past'.

Unraveling forced responses of extreme El Niño variability over the Holocene

Uncertainty surrounding the future response of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability to anthropogenic warming necessitates the study of past ENSO sensitivity to substantial climate forcings over geological history. Here, we focus on the Holocene epoch and show that ENSO amplitude and frequency intensified over this period, driven by an increase in extreme El Niño events. Our study combines new climate model simulations, advances in coral proxy system modeling, and coral proxy data from the central tropical Pacific. Although the model diverges from the observed coral data regarding the exact magnitude of change, both indicate that modern ENSO variance eclipsed paleo-estimates over the Holocene, albeit against the backdrop of wide-ranging natural variability. Toward further constraining paleo-ENSO, our work underscores the need for multimodel investigations of additional Holocene intervals alongside more coral data from periods with larger climate forcing. Our findings implicate extreme El Niño events as an important rectifier of mean ENSO intensity.

Globally resolved surface temperatures since the Last Glacial Maximum

Climate changes across the past 24,000 years provide key insights into Earth system responses to external forcing. Climate model simulations^1,2 and proxy data^3-8 have independently allowed for study of this crucial interval; however, they have at times yielded disparate conclusions. Here, we leverage both types of information using paleoclimate data assimilation^9,10 to produce the first proxy-constrained, full-field reanalysis of surface temperature change spanning the Last Glacial Maximum to present at 200-year resolution. We demonstrate that temperature variability across the past 24 thousand years was linked to two primary climatic mechanisms: radiative forcing from ice sheets and greenhouse gases; and a superposition of changes in the ocean overturning circulation and seasonal insolation. In contrast with previous proxy-based reconstructions^6,7 our results show that global mean temperature has slightly but steadily warmed, by ~0.5 °C, since the early Holocene (around 9 thousand years ago). When compared with recent temperature changes¹¹, our reanalysis indicates that both the rate and magnitude of modern warming are unusual relative to the changes of the past 24 thousand years.

Paleo-ENSO influence on African environments and early modern humans

In this study, we synthesize terrestrial and marine proxy records, spanning the past 620 ky, to decipher pan-African climate variability and its drivers and potential linkages to hominin evolution. We find a tight correlation between moisture availability across Africa to El Niño Southern Ocean oscillation (ENSO) variability, a manifestation of the Walker Circulation, that was most likely driven by changes in Earth's eccentricity. Our results demonstrate that low-latitude insolation was a prominent driver of pan-African climate change during the Middle to Late Pleistocene. We argue that these low-latitude climate processes governed the dispersion and evolution of vegetation as well as mammals in eastern and western Africa by increasing resource-rich and stable ecotonal settings thought to have been important to early modern humans.

Large shift of the Pacific Walker Circulation across the Cenozoic

Fluctuations in the Pacific Walker Circulation (PWC), a zonally oriented overturning cell across the tropical Pacific, can cause widespread climatic and biogeochemical perturbations. It remains unknown how the PWC developed during the Cenozoic era, with its substantial changes in greenhouse gases and continental positions. Through a suite of coupled model simulations on tectonic timescales, we demonstrate that the PWC was ∼38° broader and ∼5% more intense during the Early Eocene relative to present. As the climate cooled from the Early Eocene to the Late Miocene, the width of the PWC shrank, accompanied by an increase in intensity that was tied to the enhanced Pacific zonal temperature gradient. However, the locations of the western and eastern branches behave differently from the Early Eocene to the Late Miocene, with the western edge remaining steady with time due to the relatively stable geography of the western tropical Pacific; the eastern edge migrates westward with time as the South American continent moves northwest. A transition occurs in the PWC between the Late Miocene and Late Pliocene, manifested by an eastward shift (both the western and eastern edges migrate eastward by >12°) and weakening (by ∼22%), which we show here is linked with the closure of the tropical seaways. Moreover, our results suggest that rising CO₂ favors a weaker PWC under the same land-sea configurations, a robust feature across the large spread of Cenozoic climates considered here, supporting a weakening of the PWC in a warmer future.

Emergence of an equatorial mode of climate variability in the Indian Ocean

Presently, the Indian Ocean (IO) resides in a climate state that prevents strong year-to-year climate variations. This may change under greenhouse warming, but the mechanisms remain uncertain, thus limiting our ability to predict future changes in climate extremes. Using climate model simulations, we uncover the emergence of a mode of climate variability capable of generating unprecedented sea surface temperature and rainfall fluctuations across the IO. This mode, which is inhibited under present-day conditions, becomes active in climate states with a shallow thermocline and vigorous upwelling, consistent with the predictions of continued greenhouse warming. These predictions are supported by modeling and proxy evidence of an active mode during glacial intervals that favored such a state. Because of its impact on hydrological variability, the emergence of such a mode would become a first-order source of climate-related risks for the densely populated IO rim.

Advances in understanding large-scale responses of the water cycle to climate change

Globally, thermodynamics explains an increase in atmospheric water vapor with warming of around 7%/°C near to the surface. In contrast, global precipitation and evaporation are constrained by the Earth's energy balance to increase at ∼2-3%/°C. However, this rate of increase is suppressed by rapid atmospheric adjustments in response to greenhouse gases and absorbing aerosols that directly alter the atmospheric energy budget. Rapid adjustments to forcings, cooling effects from scattering aerosol, and observational uncertainty can explain why observed global precipitation responses are currently difficult to detect but are expected to emerge and accelerate as warming increases and aerosol forcing diminishes. Precipitation increases with warming are expected to be smaller over land than ocean due to limitations on moisture convergence, exacerbated by feedbacks and affected by rapid adjustments. Thermodynamic increases in atmospheric moisture fluxes amplify wet and dry events, driving an intensification of precipitation extremes. The rate of intensification can deviate from a simple thermodynamic response due to in-storm and larger-scale feedback processes, while changes in large-scale dynamics and catchment characteristics further modulate the frequency of flooding in response to precipitation increases. Changes in atmospheric circulation in response to radiative forcing and evolving surface temperature patterns are capable of dominating water cycle changes in some regions. Moreover, the direct impact of human activities on the water cycle through water abstraction, irrigation, and land use change is already a significant component of regional water cycle change and is expected to further increase in importance as water demand grows with global population.

On the glacial-interglacial variability of the Asian monsoon in speleothem δ18O records

While Asian monsoon (AM) changes have been clearly captured in Chinese speleothem oxygen isotope (δ¹⁸O) records, the lack of glacial-interglacial variability in the records remains puzzling. Here, we report speleothem δ¹⁸O records from three locations along the trajectory of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM), a major branch of the AM, and characterize AM rainfall over the past 180,000 years. We have found that the records close to the monsoon moisture source show large glacial-interglacial variability, which then decreases landward. These changes likely reflect a stronger oxygen isotope fractionation associated with progressive rainout of AM moisture during glacial periods, possibly due to a larger temperature gradient and suppressed plant transpiration. We term this effect, which counteracts the forcing of glacial boundary conditions, the moisture transport pathway effect.

Glacial-Interglacial Precipitation Changes

Glacial-interglacial cycles have constituted a primary mode of climate variability over the last 2.6 million years of Earth's history. While glacial periods cannot be seen simply as a reverse analogue of future warming, they offer an opportunity to test our understanding of the response of precipitation patterns to a much wider range of conditions than we have been able to directly observe. This review explores key features of precipitation patterns associated with glacial climates, which include drying in large regions of the tropics and wetter conditions in substantial parts of the subtropics and midlatitudes. I describe the evidence for these changes and examine the potential causes of hydrological changes during glacial periods. Central themes that emerge include the importance of atmospheric circulation changes in determining glacial-interglacial precipitation changes at the regional scale, the need to take into account climatic factors beyond local precipitation amount when interpreting proxy data, and the role of glacial conditions in suppressing the strength of Northern Hemisphere monsoon systems.

Modulation of Indian monsoon by water vapor and cloud feedback over the past 22,000 years

To predict how monsoons will evolve in the 21st century, we need to understand how they have changed in the past. In paleoclimate literature, the major focus has been on the role of solar forcing on monsoons but not on the amplification by feedbacks internal to the climate system. Here we have used the results from a transient climate simulation to show that feedbacks amplify the effect of change in insolation on the Indian summer monsoon. We show that during the deglacial (22 ka to 10 ka) monsoons were predominantly influenced by rising water vapor due to increasing sea surface temperature, whereas in the Holocene (10 ka to 0 ka) cloud feedback was more important. These results are consistent with another transient simulation, thus increasing confidence despite potential model biases. We have demonstrated that insolation drives monsoon through different pathways during cold and warm periods, thereby highlighting the changing role of internal factors.

Glacial Indonesian Throughflow weakening across the Mid-Pleistocene Climatic Transition

The Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) controls the oceanic flux of heat and salt between the Pacific and Indian Oceans and therewith plays an important role in modulating the meridional overturning circulation and low latitude hydrological cycle. Here, we report new sea surface temperature and aridity records from the west coast of Australia (IODP Site U1460), which allow us to assess the sensitivity of the eastern Indian Ocean to the major reorganization of Earth’s climate that occurred during the Mid-Pleistocene Transition. Our records indicate glacial coolings at 1.55 and 0.65 million years ago that are best explained by a weakening of the ITF as a consequence of global sea level and tectonic changes. These coincide with the development of pronounced gradients in the carbon isotope composition of the different ocean basins and with substantial changes in regional aridity, suggesting that the restrictions of the ITF influenced both the evolution of global ocean circulation and the development of the modern hydrological cycle in Western Australia.

Quaternary Highlights (December 2018–February 2019)

Editorial summaries of selected papers relevant to Quaternary science published in high-impact multidisciplinary journals between December 2018 and February 2019 [...]