The potential size and duration of an epidemic of bovine spongiform encephalopathy in British sheep

Scientific report on the analysis of the 2-year compulsory intensified monitoring of atypical scrapie

The European Commission asked EFSA whether the scientific data on the 2-year intensified monitoring in atypical scrapie (AS) outbreaks (2013-2020) provide any evidence on the contagiousness of AS, and whether they added any new knowledge on the epidemiology of AS. An ad hoc data set from intensified monitoring in 22 countries with index case/s of AS in sheep and/or goats (742 flocks from 20 countries, 76 herds from 11 countries) was analysed. No secondary cases were confirmed in goat herds, while 35 secondary cases were confirmed in 28 sheep flocks from eight countries. The results of the calculated design prevalence and of a model simulation indicated that the intensified monitoring had limited ability to detect AS, with no difference between countries with or without secondary cases. A regression model showed an increased, but not statistically significant, prevalence (adjusted by surveillance stream) of secondary cases in infected flocks compared with that of index cases in the non-infected flocks (general population). A simulation model of within-flock transmission, comparing a contagious (i.e. transmissible between animals under natural conditions) with a non-contagious scenario, produced a better fit of the observed data with the non-contagious scenario, in which each sheep in a flock had the same probability of developing AS in the first year of life. Based on the analyses performed, and considering uncertainties and data limitations, it was concluded that there is no new evidence that AS can be transmitted between animals under natural conditions, and it is considered more likely (subjective probability range 50-66%) that AS is a non-contagious, rather than a contagious disease. The analysis of the data of the EU intensified monitoring in atypical scrapie infected flocks/herds confirmed some of the known epidemiological features of AS but identified that major knowledge gaps still remain.

Sheep scab transmission: a spatially explicit dynamic metapopulation model

Psoroptic mange (sheep scab), caused by the parasitic mite, Psoroptes ovis, is an important disease of sheep worldwide. It causes chronic animal welfare issues and economic losses. Eradication of scab has proved impossible in many sheep-rearing areas and recent reports of resistance to macrocyclic lactones, a key class of parasiticide, highlight the importance of improving approaches to scab management. To allow this, the current study aimed to develop a stochastic spatial metapopulation model for sheep scab transmission which can be adapted for use in any geographical region, exhibited here using data for Great Britain. The model uses agricultural survey and sheep movement data to geo-reference farms and capture realistic movement patterns. Reported data on sheep scab outbreaks from 1973 to 1991 were used for model fitting with Sequential Monte Carlo Approximate Bayesian Computation methods. The outbreak incidence predicted by the model was from the same statistical distribution as the reported outbreak data (\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$${\chi }^{2}$$\end{document}χ2 = 115.3, p = 1) and the spatial location of sheep scab outbreaks predicted was positively correlated with the observed outbreak data by county (\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\tau$$\end{document}τ = 0.55, p < 0.001), confirming that the model developed is able to accurately capture the number of farms infected in a year, the seasonality of scab incidence and the spatial patterns seen in the data. This model gives insight into the transmission dynamics of sheep scab and will allow the exploration of more effective control strategies.

Pros and cons in prion diseases abatement: Insights from nanomedicine and transmissibility patterns

Ample research progress with nanotechnology applications in health and medicine implies precision and accuracy in the scenario of neurodegenerative disorders, for which impending research in ultimate and complete cure has been the vision worldwide. The complexity of prion disease has been unravelled by scientists and demarcated for efficient abatement protocols, but which are still under research and clinical trials. Drug delivery strategies combating prion diseases across the blood brain barrier, the efficacy of drugs and biocompatibility remain a serious question to be thoroughly studied for effective diagnosis and treatment. The present review compiles comprehensively the current treatment modalities against prion diseases and future prospects of nanotechnology addressing diagnosis and treatment of prion diseases with a special emphasis on transmissibility. Further, approaches for anti-prion technology, immunotherapy, and hindrances in vaccine development are discussed.

Review: Update on Classical and Atypical Scrapie in Sheep and Goats

Scrapie is a naturally occurring transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE) or prion disease of sheep and goats. Scrapie is a protein misfolding disease where the normal prion protein (PrP^C) misfolds into a pathogenic form (PrP^Sc) that is highly resistant to enzymatic breakdown within the cell and accumulates, eventually leading to neurodegeneration. The amino acid sequence of the prion protein and tissue distribution of PrP^Sc within affected hosts have a major role in determining susceptibility to and potential environmental contamination with the scrapie agent. Many countries have genotype-based eradication programs that emphasize using rams that express arginine at codon 171 in the prion protein, which is associated with resistance to the classical scrapie agent. In classical scrapie, accumulation of PrP^Sc within lymphoid and other tissues facilitates environmental contamination and spread of the disease within flocks. A major distinction can be made between classical scrapie strains that are readily spread within populations of susceptible sheep and goats and atypical (Nor-98) scrapie that has unique molecular and phenotype characteristics and is thought to occur spontaneously in older sheep or goats. This review provides an overview of classical and atypical scrapie with consideration of potential transmission of classical scrapie to other mammalian hosts.

DISCONTOOLS: Identifying gaps in controlling bovine spongiform encephalopathy

This article summarizes the 2016 update of the DISCONTOOLS project gap analysis on bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), which was based on a combination of literature review and expert knowledge. Uncertainty still exists in relation to the pathogenesis, immunology and epidemiology of BSE, but provided that infected material is prohibited from entering the animal feed chain, cases should continue to decline. BSE does not appear to spread between cattle, but if new strains with this ability appear then control would be considerably more difficult. Atypical types of BSE (L-BSE and H-BSE) have been identified, which have different molecular patterns and pathology, and do not display the same clinical signs as classical BSE. Laboratory transmission experiments indicate that the L-BSE agent has zoonotic potential. There is no satisfactory conclusion regarding the origin of the BSE epidemic. C-BSE case numbers declined rapidly following strict controls banning ruminant protein in animal feed, but occasional cases still occur. It is unclear whether these more recent cases indicate inadequate implementation of the bans, or the possibility that C-BSE might occur spontaneously, as has been postulated for H- and L-BSE. All of this will have implications once existing bans and levels of surveillance are both relaxed. Immunochemical tests can only be applied post-mortem. There is no immunological basis for diagnosis in the live animal. All aspects of disease control are expensive, particularly surveillance, specified risk material removal and feed controls. There is pressure to relax feed controls, and concurrent pressure from other sources to reduce surveillance. While the cost benefit argument can be applied successfully to either of these approaches, it would be necessary to maintain the ban on intraspecies recycling and some baseline surveillance. However, the potential risk is not limited to intraspecies recycling; recycling with cross-species transmission may be an ideal way to select or/and modify properties of transmissible spongiform encephalopathies agents in the future.

Two-stage effects of awareness cascade on epidemic spreading in multiplex networks

Human awareness plays an important role in the spread of infectious diseases and the control of propagation patterns. The dynamic process with human awareness is called awareness cascade, during which individuals exhibit herd-like behavior because they are making decisions based on the actions of other individuals [Borge-Holthoefer et al., J. Complex Networks 1, 3 (2013)]. In this paper, to investigate the epidemic spreading with awareness cascade, we propose a local awareness controlled contagion spreading model on multiplex networks. By theoretical analysis using a microscopic Markov chain approach and numerical simulations, we find the emergence of an abrupt transition of epidemic threshold β(c) with the local awareness ratio α approximating 0.5, which induces two-stage effects on epidemic threshold and the final epidemic size. These findings indicate that the increase of α can accelerate the outbreak of epidemics. Furthermore, a simple 1D lattice model is investigated to illustrate the two-stage-like sharp transition at α(c)≈0.5. The results can give us a better understanding of why some epidemics cannot break out in reality and also provide a potential access to suppressing and controlling the awareness cascading systems.

Genotype-dependent molecular evolution of sheep bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) prions in vitro affects their zoonotic potential

Prion diseases are rare fatal neurological conditions of humans and animals, one of which (variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease) is known to be a zoonotic form of the cattle disease bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE). What makes one animal prion disease zoonotic and others not is poorly understood, but it appears to involve compatibility between the prion strain and the host prion protein sequence. Concerns have been raised that the United Kingdom sheep flock may have been exposed to BSE early in the cattle BSE epidemic and that serial BSE transmission in sheep might have resulted in adaptation of the agent, which may have come to phenotypically resemble scrapie while maintaining its pathogenicity for humans. We have modeled this scenario in vitro. Extrapolation from our results suggests that if BSE were to infect sheep in the field it may, with time and in some sheep genotypes, become scrapie-like at the molecular level. However, the results also suggest that if BSE in sheep were to come to resemble scrapie it would lose its ability to affect humans.

Characterization of an unusual transmissible spongiform encephalopathy in goat by transmission in knock-in transgenic mice

Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) is a fatal neurodegenerative disorder of cattle, and its transmission to humans through contaminated food is thought to be the cause of the variant form of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease. BSE is believed to have spread from the recycling in cattle of ruminant tissue in meat and bone meal (MBM). However, during this time, sheep and goats were also exposed to BSE-contaminated MBM. Both sheep and goats are experimentally susceptible to BSE, and while there have been no reported natural BSE cases in sheep, two goat BSE field cases have been documented. While cases of BSE are rare in small ruminants, the existence of scrapie in both sheep and goats is well established. In the UK, during 2006-2007, a serious outbreak of clinical scrapie was detected in a large dairy goat herd. Subsequently, 200 goats were selected for post-mortem examination, one of which showed biochemical and immunohistochemical features of the disease-associated prion protein (PrP(TSE)) which differed from all other infected goats. In the present study, we investigated this unusual case by performing transmission bioassays into a panel of mouse lines. Following characterization, we found that strain properties such as the ability to transmit to different mouse lines, lesion profile pattern, degree of PrP deposition in the brain and biochemical features of this unusual goat case were neither consistent with goat BSE nor with a goat scrapie herdmate control. However, our results suggest that this unusual case has BSE-like properties and highlights the need for continued surveillance.

Isolation of prion with BSE properties from farmed goat

BSE can infect small ruminants and could be misdiagnosed as scrapie.

Transmissible spongiform encephalopathies are fatal neurodegenerative diseases that include variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease in humans, scrapie in small ruminants, and bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in cattle. Scrapie is not considered a public health risk, but BSE has been linked to variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease. Small ruminants are susceptible to BSE, and in 2005 BSE was identified in a farmed goat in France. We confirm another BSE case in a goat in which scrapie was originally diagnosed and retrospectively identified as suspected BSE. The prion strain in this case was further characterized by mouse bioassay after extraction from formaldehyde-fixed brain tissue embedded in paraffin blocks. Our data show that BSE can infect small ruminants under natural conditions and could be misdiagnosed as scrapie. Surveillance should continue so that another outbreak of this zoonotic transmissible spongiform encephalopathy can be prevented and public health safeguarded.

Detection and control of prion diseases in food animals

Transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs), or prion diseases, represent a unique form of infectious disease based on misfolding of a self-protein (PrP^C) into a pathological, infectious conformation (PrP^Sc). Prion diseases of food animals gained notoriety during the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) outbreak of the 1980s. In particular, disease transmission to humans, to the generation of a fatal, untreatable disease, elevated the perspective on livestock prion diseases from food production to food safety. While the immediate threat posed by BSE has been successfully addressed through surveillance and improved management practices, another prion disease is rapidly spreading. Chronic wasting disease (CWD), a prion disease of cervids, has been confirmed in wild and captive populations with devastating impact on the farmed cervid industries. Furthermore, the unabated spread of this disease through wild populations threatens a natural resource that is a source of considerable economic benefit and national pride. In a worst-case scenario, CWD may represent a zoonotic threat either through direct transmission via consumption of infected cervids or through a secondary food animal, such as cattle. This has energized efforts to understand prion diseases as well as to develop tools for disease detection, prevention, and management. Progress in each of these areas is discussed.

There is no safe dose of prions

Understanding the circumstances under which exposure to transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) leads to infection is important for managing risks to public health. Based upon ideas in toxicology and radiology, it is plausible that exposure to harmful agents, including TSEs, is completely safe if the dose is low enough. However, the existence of a threshold, below which infection probability is zero has never been demonstrated experimentally. Here we explore this question by combining data and mathematical models that describe scrapie infections in mice following experimental challenge over a broad range of doses. We analyse data from 4338 mice inoculated at doses ranging over ten orders of magnitude. These data are compared to results from a within-host model in which prions accumulate according to a stochastic birth-death process. Crucially, this model assumes no threshold on the dose required for infection. Our data reveal that infection is possible at the very low dose of a 1000 fold dilution of the dose that infects half the challenged animals (ID50). Furthermore, the dose response curve closely matches that predicted by the model. These findings imply that there is no safe dose of prions and that assessments of the risk from low dose exposure are right to assume a linear relationship between dose and probability of infection. We also refine two common perceptions about TSE incubation periods: that their mean values decrease linearly with logarithmic decreases in dose and that they are highly reproducible between hosts. The model and data both show that the linear decrease in incubation period holds only for doses above the ID50. Furthermore, variability in incubation periods is greater than predicted by the model, not smaller. This result poses new questions about the sources of variability in prion incubation periods. It also provides insight into the limitations of the incubation period assay.

Detection and localisation of PrP(Sc) in the liver of sheep infected with scrapie and bovine spongiform encephalopathy

Prions are largely contained within the nervous and lymphoid tissue of transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE) infected animals. However, following advances in diagnostic sensitivity, PrP(Sc), a marker for prion disease, can now be located in a wide range of viscera and body fluids including muscle, saliva, blood, urine and milk, raising concerns that exposure to these materials could contribute to the spread of disease in humans and animals. Previously we demonstrated low levels of infectivity in the liver of sheep experimentally challenged with bovine spongiform encephalopathy. In this study we show that PrP(Sc) accumulated in the liver of 89% of sheep naturally infected with scrapie and 100% of sheep challenged with BSE, at both clinical and preclinical stages of the disease. PrP(Sc) was demonstrated in the absence of obvious inflammatory foci and was restricted to isolated resident cells, most likely Kupffer cells.

Breeding with resistant rams leads to rapid control of classical scrapie in affected sheep flocks

Susceptibility to scrapie, a transmissible spongiform encephalopathy in sheep, is modulated by the genetic make-up of the sheep. Scrapie control policies, based on selecting animals of resistant genotype for breeding, have recently been adopted by the Netherlands and other European countries. Here we assess the effectiveness of a breeding programme based on selecting rams of resistant genotype to obtain outbreak control in classical scrapie-affected sheep flocks under field conditions. In six commercially-run flocks following this breeding strategy, we used genotyping to monitor the genotype distribution, and tonsil biopsies and post-mortem analyses to monitor the occurrence of scrapie infection. The farmers were not informed about the monitoring results until the end of the study period of six years. We used a mathematical model of scrapie transmission to analyze the monitoring data and found that where the breeding scheme was consistently applied, outbreak control was obtained after at most four years. Our results also show that classical scrapie control can be obtained before the frequency of non-resistant animals is reduced to zero in the flock. This suggests that control at the national scale can be obtained without a loss of genetic polymorphisms from any of the sheep breeds.

Use of a preclinical test in the control of classical scrapie

Scrapie control in Great Britain (GB) was originally based on the National Scrapie Plan's Ram Genotyping scheme aimed at reducing the susceptibility of the national flock. The current official strategy to control scrapie in the national flock involves culling susceptible genotypes in individual, known affected flocks (compulsory scrapie flock scheme or CSFS). However, the recent development of preclinical test candidates means that a strategy based on disease detection may now be feasible. Here, a deterministic within-flock model was used to demonstrate that only large flocks with many home-bred ewes are likely to be a significant risk for flock-to-flock transmission of scrapie. For most other flocks, it was found that the CSFS could be replaced by a strategy using a currently available live test without excessive risk to other farmers, even if the proportion of susceptible genotypes in the flock is unusually large. Even for flocks that represent a high risk of harbouring a high prevalence of infection, there would be limited probability of onward transmission if scrapie is detected soon after disease introduction (typically less than 5 years). However, if detection of disease is delayed, the existing CSFS strategy may be the most appropriate control measure in these cases.

Scrapie prevalence in sheep of susceptible genotype is declining in a population subject to breeding for resistance

Background

Susceptibility of sheep to scrapie infection is known to be modulated by the PrP genotype of the animal. In the Netherlands an ambitious scrapie control programme was started in 1998, based on genetic selection of animals for breeding. From 2002 onwards EU regulations required intensive active scrapie surveillance as well as certain control measures in affected flocks.

Here we analyze the data on genotype frequencies and scrapie prevalence in the Dutch sheep population obtained from both surveillance and affected flocks, to identify temporal trends. We also estimate the genotype-specific relative risks to become a detected scrapie case.

Results

We find that the breeding programme has produced a steady increase in the level of genetic scrapie resistance in the Dutch sheep population. We also find that a significant decline in the prevalence of scrapie in tested animals has occurred a number of years after the start of the breeding programme. Most importantly, the estimated scrapie prevalence level per head of susceptible genotype is also declining significantly, indicating that selective breeding causes a population effect.

Conclusions

The Dutch scrapie control programme has produced a steady rise in genetic resistance levels in recent years. A recent decline in the scrapie prevalence per tested sheep of susceptible prion protein genotype indicates that selective breeding causes the desired population effect.

Surveillance and simulation of bovine spongiform encephalopathy and scrapie in small ruminants in Switzerland

BACKGROUND

After bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) emerged in European cattle livestock in 1986 a fundamental question was whether the agent established also in the small ruminants' population. In Switzerland transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) in small ruminants have been monitored since 1990. While in the most recent TSE cases a BSE infection could be excluded, for historical cases techniques to discriminate scrapie from BSE had not been available at the time of diagnosis and thus their status remained unclear. We herein applied state-of-the-art techniques to retrospectively classify these animals and to re-analyze the affected flocks for secondary cases. These results were the basis for models, simulating the course of TSEs over a period of 70 years. The aim was to come to a statistically based overall assessment of the TSE situation in the domestic small ruminant population in Switzerland.

RESULTS

In sum 16 TSE cases were identified in small ruminants in Switzerland since 1981, of which eight were atypical and six were classical scrapie. In two animals retrospective analysis did not allow any further classification due to the lack of appropriate tissue samples. We found no evidence for an infection with the BSE agent in the cases under investigation. In none of the affected flocks, secondary cases were identified. A Bayesian prevalence calculation resulted in most likely estimates of one case of BSE, five cases of classical scrapie and 21 cases of atypical scrapie per 100'000 small ruminants. According to our models none of the TSEs is considered to cause a broader epidemic in Switzerland. In a closed population, they are rather expected to fade out in the next decades or, in case of a sporadic origin, may remain at a very low level.

CONCLUSIONS

In summary, these data indicate that despite a significant epidemic of BSE in cattle, there is no evidence that BSE established in the small ruminant population in Switzerland. Classical and atypical scrapie both occur at a very low level and are not expected to escalate into an epidemic. In this situation the extent of TSE surveillance in small ruminants requires reevaluation based on cost-benefit analysis.

The role of mathematical modelling in understanding the epidemiology and control of sheep transmissible spongiform encephalopathies: a review

To deal with the incompleteness of observations and disentangle the complexities of transmission much use has been made of mathematical modelling when investigating the epidemiology of sheep transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSE) and, in particular, scrapie. Importantly, these modelling approaches allow the incidence of clinical disease to be related to the underlying prevalence of infection, thereby overcoming one of the major difficulties when studying these diseases. Models have been used to investigate the epidemiology of scrapie within individual flocks and at a regional level; to assess the efficacy of different control strategies, especially selective breeding programmes based on prion protein (PrP) genotype; to interpret the results of scrapie surveillance; and to inform the design of surveillance programmes. Furthermore, mathematical modelling has played an important role when assessing the risk to human health posed by the possible presence of bovine spongiform encephalopathy in sheep. Here, we review the various approaches that have been taken when developing and analysing mathematical models for the epidemiology and control of sheep TSE and assess their impact on our understanding of these diseases. We also identify areas that require further work, discuss future challenges and identify data gaps.

Prions: Protein Aggregation and Infectious Diseases

Transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) are inevitably lethal neurodegenerative diseases that affect humans and a large variety of animals. The infectious agent responsible for TSEs is the prion, an abnormally folded and aggregated protein that propagates itself by imposing its conformation onto the cellular prion protein (PrPC) of the host. PrPCis necessary for prion replication and for prion-induced neurodegeneration, yet the proximal causes of neuronal injury and death are still poorly understood. Prion toxicity may arise from the interference with the normal function of PrPC, and therefore, understanding the physiological role of PrPCmay help to clarify the mechanism underlying prion diseases. Here we discuss the evolution of the prion concept and how prion-like mechanisms may apply to other protein aggregation diseases. We describe the clinical and the pathological features of the prion diseases in human and animals, the events occurring during neuroinvasion, and the possible scenarios underlying brain damage. Finally, we discuss potential antiprion therapies and current developments in the realm of prion diagnostics.

Protective effect of the T112 PrP variant in sheep challenged with bovine spongiform encephalopathy

Sheep with an ARQ/ARQ PRNP genotype at codon positions 136/154/171 are highly susceptible to experimental infection with bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE). However, a number of sheep challenged orally or intracerebrally with BSE were clinically asymptomatic and found to survive or were diagnosed as BSE-negative when culled. Sequencing of the full PRNP gene open reading frame of BSE-susceptible and -resistant sheep indicated that, in the majority of Suffolk sheep, resistance was associated with an M112T PRNP variant (TARQ allele). A high proportion (47 of 49; 96%) of BSE-challenged wild-type (MARQ/MARQ) Suffolk sheep were BSE-infected, whereas none of the 20 sheep with at least one TARQ allele succumbed to BSE. Thirteen TARQ-carrying sheep challenged with BSE are still alive and some have survival periods equivalent to, or greater than, reported incubation periods of BSE in ARR/ARR and VRQ/VRQ sheep.

Prevalence of sheep infected with classical scrapie in Great Britain, 1993–2007

Extensive surveillance for classical scrapie has been carried out in Great Britain since 1993, the results of which can be used for monitoring the effect of control measures introduced since 2001. A back-calculation approach was used to estimate the prevalence of sheep infected with classical scrapie, which integrates data on reported clinical cases (1993–2007) and the results of fallen stock and abattoir surveys (2002–2007). The prevalence of classical scrapie in GB was fairly constant until 2003, although the estimates depended on assumptions made about the performance of diagnostic tests used in the surveys. If infected animals could be detected in the final quarter of the incubation period, the estimated prevalence was 0·6–0·7%, while if they could be detected in the final half of the incubation period, it was 0·3–0·4%. Between 2003 and 2007 the prevalence declined by around 40%, and the magnitude of the reduction was independent of assumptions made about the diagnostic tests.

Within-holding prevalence of sheep classical scrapie in Great Britain

Background

Data from the Compulsory Scrapie Flocks Scheme (CSFS), part of the compulsory eradication measures for the control of scrapie in the EU, have been used to estimate the within-holding prevalence of classical scrapie in Great Britain (GB). Specifically data from one of the testing routes within the CSFS have been used; the initial cull (IC), whereby two options can be applied: the whole flock cull option by which the entire flock is depopulated, and the genotyping and cull of certain genotypes.

Results

Between April 2005 and September 2007, 25,316 suitable samples, submitted from 411 flocks in 213 scrapie-affected holdings in Great Britain, were tested for scrapie. The predicted within-holding prevalence for the initial cull was 0.65% (95% CI: 0.55–0.75). For the whole cull option was 0.47% (95% CI: 0.32–0.68) and for the genotype and cull or mixed option (both options applied in different flocks of the same holding), the predicted within-holding prevalence was 0.7% (95% CI: 0.6–0.83). There were no significant differences in the within-flock prevalence between countries (England, Scotland and Wales) or between CSFS holdings by the surveillance stream that detected the index case. The number of CSFS flocks on a holding did not affect the overall within-holding prevalence of classical scrapie.

Conclusion

These estimates are important in the discussion of the epidemiological implications of the current EU testing programme of scrapie-affected flocks and to inform epidemiological and mathematical models. Furthermore, these estimates may provide baseline data to assist the design of future surveillance activities and control policies with the aim to increase their efficiency.

A descriptive study of the prevalence of atypical and classical scrapie in sheep in 20 European countries

Background

The development of active surveillance programmes for transmissible spongiform encephalopathies of small ruminants across Europe has led to the recent identification of a previously undetected form of ovine prion disease, 'atypical' scrapie. Knowledge of the epidemiology of this disease is still limited, as is whether it represents a risk for animal and/or public health.

The detection of atypical scrapie has been related to the use of only some of the EU agreed rapid tests. Information about the rapid tests used is not, as yet, available from public reports on the surveillance of transmissible spongiform encephalopathies in small ruminants. We collected detailed results of active surveillance from European countries to estimate and to compare the prevalence of atypical scrapie and classical scrapie in sheep for each country stratified by each surveillance stream; healthy slaughtered and found dead adult sheep.

Results

From the 20 participating countries, it appeared that atypical scrapie was detected in Europe wherever the conditions necessary for its diagnosis were present. In most countries, atypical scrapie and classical scrapie occurred at low prevalence level. The classical scrapie prevalence estimates were more variable than those for atypical scrapie, which appeared remarkably homogeneous across countries, surveillance streams and calendar years of surveillance. Differences were observed in the age and genotype of atypical scrapie and classical scrapie cases that are consistent with previous published findings.

Conclusion

This work suggests that atypical scrapie is not rare compared to classical scrapie. The homogeneity of its prevalence, whatever the country, stream of surveillance or year of detection, contrasts with the epidemiological pattern of classical scrapie. This suggests that the aetiology of atypical scrapie differs from that of classical scrapie.

Demographic risk factors for classical and atypical scrapie in Great Britain

Following the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) crisis, the European Union has introduced policies for eradicating transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs), including scrapie, from large ruminants. However, recent European Union surveillance has identified a novel prion disease, ‘atypical’ scrapie, substantially different from classical scrapie. It is unknown whether atypical scrapie is naturally transmissible or zoonotic, like BSE. Furthermore, cases have occurred in scrapie-resistant genotypes that are targets for selection in legislated selective breeding programmes. Here, the first epidemiological study of British cases of atypical scrapie is described, focusing on the demographics and trading patterns of farms and using databases of recorded livestock movements. Triplet comparisons found that farms with atypical scrapie stock more sheep than those of the general, non-affected population. They also move larger numbers of animals than control farms, but similar numbers to farms reporting classical scrapie. Whilst there is weak evidence of association through sheep trading of farms reporting classical scrapie, atypical scrapie shows no such evidence, being well-distributed across regions of Great Britain and through the sheep-trading network. Thus, although cases are few in number so far, our study suggests that, should natural transmission of atypical scrapie be occurring at all, it is doing so slowly.

Quantifying the risk from ovine BSE and the impact of control strategies

Although no naturally infected sheep with bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) has ever been discovered, it remains possible that BSE once infected the UK sheep population, has been transmitted between sheep, and is still present today. We constructed a mathematical model to assess the current maximum theoretical exposure to consumers from BSE-infected ovine material and to estimate the risk reduction that could be achieved by abattoir-based control options if BSE-infected sheep were ever found in the national flock. We predict that, if present, the exposure to consumers from a single BSE-infected sheep would be high: one sheep, close to the end of its incubation period, is likely to contribute 10-1000 times more infectious material than a fully infectious cow. Furthermore, 30% of this exposure comes from infectivity residing in lymphatic and peripheral tissue that cannot be completely removed from a carcass. We are 95% confident that throughout Great Britain, no more than four sheep flocks currently harbour an ongoing BSE epidemic. However, since the exposure from a single infected sheep is high, the annual human exposure from four 'typical' BSE-infected flocks could be considerable. Small reductions in exposure could be achieved by strategies based on tissue testing, a 12-month age restriction or expanded definitions of high-risk tissues. A six-month age restriction is likely to be more effective and genotype-based strategies the most effective.

Disease dynamics over very different time-scales: foot-and-mouth disease and scrapie on the network of livestock movements in the UK

We analyse the relationship between the network of livestock movements in the UK and the dynamics of two diseases: foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), which has an incubation period of days, and scrapie, which incubates over years. For FMD, the time-scale of expected epidemics is similar to the time-scale of the evolution of the network. We argue that, under appropriate conditions, a static network analysis can be an appropriate tool for gaining insights into disease dynamics even when the relevant time-scales are similar, as with FMD. We show that a subclass of ‘linkage moves’ maintains the network structure, and so removing these links has a dramatic effect on the number of potentially infected farms, an effect corroborated by simulations. In contrast, because scrapie has a low probability of transmission per contact and a long incubation period, a static network representation is probably appropriate; however, the signature of the network in the pattern of transmission is likely to be faint. Scrapie-notifying farms were more likely to be associated with each other via trading at markets than were control farms; however, network community structure proves to be less representative of prevalence patterns than geographical region. These contradictory indicators emphasize that appropriate observation time frames and good discrimination among types of potentially infectious contacts are vital in order for network analysis to be a valuable epidemiological tool.

Exposure assessment of TSEs from the landspreading of meat and bone meal

Recent changes in European legislation have meant that certain processed abattoir waste, which has been appropriately heat treated and ground to a specified particle size, can be spread on nonpasture agricultural land. This has opened the way for the potential landspreading of mammalian meat and bone meal (mMBM) derived from animals slaughtered for human consumption. This article reports on two separate case studies (Study 1 carried out in Great Britain (GB) and Study 2 carried out in Ireland) on the potential exposure to TSE infectivity following the spreading of abattoir waste (derived from animals slaughtered for human consumption) on nonpasture agricultural land. For Study 1, the average TSE infectivity on nonpasture agricultural land per year from sheep with scrapie was found to be higher (five orders of magnitude) than that estimated for BSE in cattle (3.9 x 10(-3) Ovine Oral ID(50)/ton of soil compared to 3.3 x 10(-8) Bovine Oral ID(50)/ton of soil). The mean estimate for BSE in sheep was 8.1 x 10(-6) Ovine Oral ID(50)/ton of soil. The mean level of infectivity in mMBM was assessed to be 1.2 x 10(-5) and 2.36 x 10(-5) ID(50)/ton of mMBM for Study 1 and 2, respectively. For Study 2 the spreading of mMBM was estimated to result in infectivity on nonpasture land of 1.62 x 10(-8) Bovine Oral ID(50)/m(3). The mean simulated probability of infection per year per bovine animal was 1.11 x 10(-9). Given the low infectivity density and corresponding low risks to bovines the spreading of mMBM could be considered a viable alternative for the utilization of mMBM.

Immunohistochemistry for PrPSc in natural scrapie reveals patterns which are associated with the PrP genotype

Immunohistochemistry for PrPSc is used widely in scrapie diagnosis. In natural scrapie cases the use of immunohistochemistry (IHC) has revealed the existence of up to 12 different morphological types of immunostained deposits. The significance of this pattern variability in relation to genotype has not been studied extensively in natural disease. In this study we recorded in detail PrPSc patterns at the obex level of the medulla oblongata from 163 animals derived from 55 flocks which presented through passive surveillance in the UK and Italy. A strong association was seen between PrPSc patterns and PrP genotype, particularly in relation to codon 136. In a blind assessment of this association we were able to predict, with over 80% accuracy, the genotype of 151 scrapie cases which were presented through passive surveillance from 13 farms. The genotype of these cases was ARQ/ARQ or VRQ/VRQ. The association of PrPsc patterns with genotype was generally stronger in those farms where all the affected animals belonged to a single genotype compared with farms where both genotypes were identified, with the exception of one farm in which the genotype of all affected sheep was ARQ/ARQ and the PrPSc patterns were of the VRQ/VRQ type. Our observations support the hypothesis that the observed association between specific IHC patterns and genotypes may in fact be strain driven but in natural disease individual scrapie strains may demonstrate a genotypic tropism.

Scrapie: uncertainties, biology and molecular approaches

The study of the biology of scrapie in sheep is irretrievably associated with the genetics of the PrP gene in sheep. Control of susceptibility and resistance is so closely linked to certain alleles of the sheep PrP gene that no review on scrapie can avoid PrP genetics. Before the importance of PrP protein was discovered and before the influence of the gene itself on disease incidence was understood, it was clear there were some sheep which were more susceptible to natural scrapie than others and that this feature was heritable. These early observations have led to the development and use of PrP genotyping in sheep in what is probably the biggest genetic selection process ever attempted. The accompanying increase in surveillance has also discovered a novel type of scrapie, the subject of much speculation about its origin.

An overview of transmissible spongiform encephalopathies

Transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) are fatal neurodegenerative disorders of humans and animals associated with an accumulation of abnormal isoforms of prion protein (PrP) in nerve cells. The pathogenesis of TSEs involves conformational conversions of normal cellular PrP (PrPc) to abnormal isoforms of PrP (PrPSc). While the protein-only hypothesis has been widely accepted as a causal mechanism of prion diseases, evidence from more recent research suggests a possible involvement of other cellular component(s) or as yet undefined infectious agent(s) in PrP pathogenesis. Although the underlying mechanisms of PrP strain variation and the determinants of interspecies transmissibility have not been fully elucidated, biochemical and molecular findings indicate that bovine spongiform encephalopathy in cattle and new-variant Creutzfeldt–Jakob disease in humans are caused by indistinguishable etiological agent(s). Cumulative evidence suggests that there may be risks of humans acquiring TSEs via a variety of exposures to infected material. The development of highly precise ligands is warranted to detect and differentiate strains, allelic variants and infectious isoforms of these PrPs. This article describes the general features of TSEs and PrP, the current understanding of their pathogenesis, recent advances in prion disease diagnostics, and PrP inactivation.

Is there a relationship between prion protein genotype and ovulation rate and litter size in sheep?

The identification of an association between polymorphisms of the prion protein (PrP) gene and susceptibility to scrapie has enabled the development of breeding programmes to increase natural resistance to scrapie. It is, however, imperative to identify if such selection would affect important reproduction and production traits. The objective of this study was to determine if there is a relationship between polymorphisms at codons 136, 154 and 171 of the PrP gene and ovulation rate or litter size in sheep. Data were collected from a mixed-aged flock of Belclare ewes, over a 9-year period. Ovulation rate was determined annually using laparoscopy by counting the number of corpora lutea at each of two consecutive oestrous cycles, one immediately before and one after mating (2418 records from 366 ewes). Litter size was recorded at parturition (875 records from 353 ewes). The five common PrP alleles were present in the population and 14 PrP genotypes were represented among the animals studied. There was no significant overall effect of PrP genotype on ovulation rate or litter size and pairwise comparisons among genotypes did not reveal any significant differences for either trait. These data suggest that breeding programmes based on selection for specific polymorphisms of the PrP gene will not influence ovulation rate or litter size, at least in the breed studied.

BSE inoculation to prion diseases-resistant sheep reveals tricky silent carriers

The possible transmission of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) agent to sheep contributed to select genetically sheep considered as resistant to prion diseases i.e., with PrP ARR/ARR genotype. Here, we report the infection of two PrP ARR/ARR genotype sheep using the cattle BSE agent inoculated by peripheral routes. Disease-associated prion protein (PrP(d)) was detected in the brain for one case (at 2191 days post-infection (dpi)) and only in the nervous enteric system for the other one (at 673dpi). The electrophoretic pattern of PrP(d) from the obex region in this BSE challenged sheep was shown to be closer from that found in naturally scrapie-affected sheep with regard to the apparent molecular mass of the unglycosylated PrP(d). Importantly, the absence of any clinical symptoms up to 6 years following experimental challenge suggests that silent carriers of the BSE agent may exist among ARR homozygous sheep.

Monitoring for bovine spongiform encephalopathy in sheep in Great Britain, 1998–2004

Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) may have been transmitted to British sheep via contaminated feed in the 1980s. Strain-typing techniques based on immunohistochemical (IHC) detection of abnormal protein (PrPd) and the molecular analysis of proteinase-resistant protein (PrPres) by Western blotting (WB) can discriminate between natural or experimental scrapie and experimental BSE in sheep. Between 1 January 1998 and 31 October 2001, 1247 sheep, clinically suspected of scrapie, were found to be positive by statutory tests in Great Britain. Archived brain tissue from these cases was retested by using these discriminatory methods. Twelve brain samples showed PrPres WB patterns that were unlike those found in natural or experimental scrapie. Prospective screening of fresh tissue from a further 1121 scrapie cases was also carried out between 1 November 2001 and 31 May 2004. Two samples gave WB results with similarities to the results found for experimental BSE in sheep. When all 14 unusual cases were tested by IHC, no match to experimental BSE in sheep was found. There were uncertainties within the retrospective study, where some equivocal results were obtained due to poor tissue quality or the unavailability of the optimum brain region. However, for the samples where tissue condition was optimum, our results provide no evidence for the presence of BSE in sheep. Epidemiological interpretation of the 450 flocks sampled indicates that the maximum proportion of sheep transmissible spongiform encephalopathy cases that could be BSE is 0.66 %. This estimate is lower than calculated previously (5 %), when the analysis was based on the results of strain typing in mice.

Epidemiological analysis of data for scrapie in Great Britain

In recent years, the control or eradication of scrapie and any other transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) possibly circulating in the sheep population has become a priority in Britain and elsewhere in Europe. A better understanding of the epidemiology of scrapie would greatly aid the development and evaluation of control and eradication strategies. Here we bound the range of key epidemiological parameters using a combination of relatively detailed pathogenesis and demography data, more limited data on susceptibility and incubation times, and recent survey data on scrapie incidence in Great Britain. These data are simultaneously analysed using mathematical models describing scrapie transmission between sheep and between flocks. Our analysis suggests that occurrence of scrapie in a flock typically provokes changes in flock management that promote termination of the outbreak, such as the adoption of selective breeding, and that a large fraction of cases (possibly over 80%) goes undetected. We show that the data analysed are consistent with the within-flock reproduction number of scrapie lying in the range 1.5-6, consistent with previous epidemiological studies.

The Shetland Islands scrapie monitoring and control programme: Analysis of the clinical data collected from 772 scrapie suspects 1985–1997

There were 574 scrapie positive suspects (histopathological scrapie lesions present) and 198 scrapie negative suspects (histopathological scrapie lesions absent). The greatest number of scrapie cases were recorded in sheep of 2, 3 and 4 years of age which represented 17%, 36% and 23% of the scrapie positive suspects, respectively. The sign sensitivities and specificities for the ten recorded signs were, respectively: pruritus (62%, 42%), ataxia (23%, 74%), hyperaesthesia (32%, 74%), wool loss (25%, 73%), fleece discolouration (29%, 85%), bruxism (23%, 69%), nibbling reflex (17%, 58%), head rubbing (47%, 78%), poll rubbing (25%, 83%). These single signs had poor discriminatory values with likelihood ratios close to one (range 0.89-1.21); combinations of the four signs, pruritus, wool loss, ataxia, hyperaesthesia and emaciation were more discriminatory (range 0.30-4.3). This study covered a time period when bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) might have been introduced into the sheep population on the Shetland Islands via contaminated feed. No temporal changes could be detected in the age structure of the affected animals.

Sheep feed and scrapie, France

Proprietary concentrates and milk replacers were linked to risk for scrapie.

Scrapie is a small ruminant, transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE). Although in the past scrapie has not been considered a zoonosis, the emergence of bovine spongiform encephalopathy, transmissible to humans and experimentally to sheep, indicates that risk exists for small ruminant TSEs in humans. To identify the risk factors for introducing scrapie into sheep flocks, a case-control study was conducted in France from 1999 to 2000. Ninety-four case and 350 control flocks were matched by location and main breed. Three main hypotheses were tested: direct contact between flocks, indirect environmental contact, and foodborne risk. Statistical analysis was performed by using adjusted generalized linear models with the complementary log-log link function, considering flock size as an offset. A notable effect of using proprietary concentrates and milk replacers was observed. The risk was heterogeneous among feed factories. Contacts between flocks were not shown to be a risk factor.

Breeding programmes for TSE resistance in British sheep. I. Assessing the impact on prion protein (PrP) genotype frequencies

From April 2005, member states of the European Union were required to implement a compulsory breeding programme for resistance to transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) in sheep as part of measures to eradicate TSEs from national flocks. In this paper, we assessed the impact of four different breeding strategies on prion protein (PrP) genotype frequencies using a mathematical model which describes in detail gene flow in the British sheep flock. These strategies ranged from the minimum requirements laid down in by EU legislation to compulsory implementation of the current National Scrapie Plan for Great Britain (NSP) ram genotyping scheme. All four strategies were predicted to substantially reduce the frequency of the VRQ allele, which is associated with the highest risk of scrapie, although schemes with more stringent requirements produced a larger reduction. However, there were marked differences in the impact of the strategies on the frequency of other PrP alleles. In particular, restrictions beyond those required by EU legislation were necessary to change the frequency of other PrP alleles substantially. Consequently, a breeding programme which aims to reduce the risk to human health by reducing the frequency of the ARQ allele (associated with the highest risk of BSE in sheep) must place restrictions on ARQ-bearing animals. Similarly, a programme which seeks to increase the frequency of the ARR allele (associated with the lowest risk of TSE) must favour ARR-bearing animals.

Breeding programmes for TSE resistance in British sheep. II. Assessing the impact on the prevalence and incidence of scrapie

By establishing a breeding programme for transmissible spongiform encephalopathie (TSE) resistance, there are plans to eradicate sheep TSEs from member states of the European Union (EU). In this paper, we used a simple age- and genotype-structured model to assess the impact of four breeding strategies on the prevalence and incidence of scrapie in the British sheep flock. The strategies ranged from the minimum EU requirements to compulsory implementation of the current National Scrapie Plan for Great Britain (NSP). All four strategies were predicted to reduce the prevalence and incidence of disease, though there was likely to be a delay of several years between the implementation of a breeding programme and the reduction in incidence. There were differences in the efficacy of the strategies, with the most stringent resulting in the greatest reduction in prevalence and incidence. However, the magnitude of the differences was not great, largely because all four strategies eliminated the VRQ allele, which is associated with a markedly higher risk of disease than any of the other alleles. Sensitivity analyses indicated that the model results were robust to selection bias when estimating the risk of infection; and that the efficacy of a breeding programme was unlikely to be compromised, unless the risk of infection is substantially underestimated by data on clinical disease.

Vertical transmission of bovine spongiform encephalopathy prions evaluated in a transgenic mouse model

In this work we show evidence of mother-to-offspring transmission in a transgenic mouse line expressing bovine PrP (boTg) experimentally infected by intracerebral administration of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) prions. PrP(res) was detected in brains of newborns from infected mothers only when mating was allowed near to the clinical stage of disease, when brain PrP(res) deposition could be detected by Western blot analysis. Attempts to detect infectivity in milk after intracerebral inoculation in boTg mice were unsuccessful, suggesting the involvement of other tissues as carriers of prion dissemination. The results shown here prove the ability of BSE prions to spread centrifugally from the central nervous system to peripheral tissues and to offspring in a mouse model. Also, these results may complement previous epidemiological data supporting the occurrence of vertical BSE transmission in cattle.

Transmissible spongiform encephalopathy risk assessment: the UK experience

Transmissible spongiform encephalopathy (TSE) risk assessments undertaken in the United Kingdom have mainly had the objective of determining the risks posed to humans from exposure to the causal agents associated with bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) and variant Creutzfeld-Jakob disease (vCJD). In this article, I examine 19 of these risk assessments published to date and consider how their results might be influenced by underlying model assumptions and methodology. Three separate aspects common to all the assessments are infective load estimation, exposure pathway identification, and risk estimation. These are each discussed in detail.

A modelling framework to describe the spread of scrapie between sheep flocks in Great Britain

My aim was to develop a stochastic, spatial model describing the spread of scrapie between sheep flocks in Great Britain; I wanted a model, which could subsequently be used to assess the efficacy of different control strategies. The structure of the model reflects the demography of the British sheep flock, including a description of the contact structure between flocks. The dynamics of scrapie were incorporated through two probabilities associated with each flock: of acquiring infection and of experiencing a within-flock outbreak following exposure. The acquisition of infection depends on whether or not a flock buys-in sheep and, if it does, whether or not it trades with an affected flock. Once a flock is exposed, the probability of a within-flock outbreak occurring and its duration depend on the basic reproductive number, the prion-protein (PrP) genotype profile and the flock size. The model was validated using regional data from two postal surveys conducted in 1998 and 2002, which demonstrated that the model captures the spatial dynamics of scrapie (at least at a regional level). Moreover, the predicted distribution for the duration of a within-flock outbreak reflects the duration of outbreaks reported in the literature. Using the model to predict long-term trends in the proportion of affected flocks suggested that, even without control measures beyond the removal of animals with clinical signs, scrapie ultimately will disappear from the national flock, though it is likely to be decades before the disease is eliminated. However, there were scenarios consistent with the available data which suggested that scrapie could remain endemic within the British sheep flock. Consequently, it is essential to take this uncertainty in the long-term dynamics of scrapie into account when considering the efficacy of control strategies. Although control strategies were not explicitly examined, the model suggests two aspects important for control: larger flocks remain affected for longer and provide infection for other, smaller flocks and animal movements must be traceable.

Frequencies of PrP genotypes in 38 breeds of sheep sampled in the National Scrapie Plan for Great Britain

Between October 2001 and January 2003 the prion protein (PrP) genotypes of over 250,000 sheep were determined through the operation of the National Scrapie Plan (NSP); the results for 38 breeds were analysed to provide an estimate of the underlying PrP genotype distribution of the British sheep population. Although there was marked variability among the genotype profiles of the different breeds, several trends emerged. A comparison of the allele frequencies demonstrated that the breeds could be grouped into three categories: breeds dominated by ARR and ARQ in which the frequency of ARR exceeded the frequency of ARQ; breeds dominated by ARR and ARQ in which the frequency of ARQ exceeded the frequency of ARR; and breeds with significant levels of either AHQ, ARH or VRQ. Hill breeds were more likely to have a lower proportion of animals at low risk of scrapie (NSP type 1) and a higher proportion of animals at an intermediate risk of scrapie (NSP type 3) than other breeds. Most breeds had a small proportion of animals at high risk of scrapie (NSP type 5). The frequency of ARR/VRQ (NSP type 4) was variable.

An evaluation of United Kingdom environmental bovine spongiform encephalopathy risk assessment

As a member of the group of diseases known as transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs), bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) has been causally associated with a new variant of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) in humans. Given the many uncertainties on the transmission and persistence of TSE pathogens in the environment, quantitative assessment of risks to humans and animals continues to remain a public health issue. This paper reviews quantitative BSE risk assessments undertaken in the United Kingdom since 1997 to address the potential for human exposure and theoretical health risks through environmental pathways. The review focuses on how model assumptions and methodology may influence the results.

Simulation of the options for a national control programme to eradicate scrapie from Great Britain

Because of the risk to public health posed by the potential presence of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in sheep, there are plans to eradicate transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) from the British sheep population. We used a mathematical model for the spread of scrapie between sheep flocks to assess the efficacy of five control strategies at eradicating the infection from the national flock. These range from ram-genotyping schemes through whole-flock genotyping with selective culling to whole-flock slaughter. The impact of control was considered under three scenarios for the long-term dynamics of scrapie in GB: two in which scrapie is ultimately eliminated (with different median extinction times) and one in which scrapie remains endemic. Results suggested that it is feasible to eradicate scrapie from the British sheep flock, but that any national control programme will take decades to eliminate the disease and be costly. The most-effective strategy, measured in terms of the probability of eradication and time taken for eradication, was predicted to be whole-flock culling, which was effective under all three scenarios for the long-term dynamics of scrapie. Strategies involving whole-flock genotyping with selective culling were also effective, though they were predicted to take longer to eradicate scrapie than whole-flock culling. Ram-genotyping schemes were effective in some instances, but not for the scenario where scrapie remained endemic in the national flock. At low levels of reporting of clinical disease (< 20%) the probability of eradication within 100 years was predicted to be < 100% and, consequently, low levels of reporting could compromise the effectiveness of a control programme. Moreover, the predicted time taken to eradicate scrapie would increase markedly if the reporting compliance decreased.

Area-level risks for BSE in British cattle before and after the July 1988 meat and bone meal feed ban

In this paper we investigate area-level risk factors for BSE for the cattle population present in Great Britain between 1986 and 1997. By dividing this population into two birth cohorts, those born before the July 1988 ban on feeding ruminant-derived meat and bone meal to ruminants and those born after, second-order regional influences are distinguished from the strong first-order south-to-north gradient of area-level BSE risk using Bayesian hierarchical models that account for structured (spatially correlated) and unstructured heterogeneity in the data. For both cohorts area-level risk of BSE was increased by a more southerly location and greater numbers of dairy cattle, relative to non-dairy cattle. For the cohort of cattle born after the July 1988 ban on feeding ruminant-derived meat and bone meal area-level BSE risk was additionally associated with greater numbers of pigs, relative to cattle. These findings support the role of low level cross-contamination of cattle feed by pig feed as an influence on BSE incidence risk as the epidemic evolved. Prior to the 1988 meat and bone meal ban unexplained BSE risk was relatively uniformly distributed across the country whereas after the ban there were spatially aggregated areas of unexplained risk in the northern and eastern regions of England suggesting that local influences allowed BSE control measures to be less-successfully applied in these areas, compared with the rest of the country. We conclude that spatially localised influences were operating in divergent ways during the two phases of the epidemic.

Environmental sources of prion transmission in mule deer

Whether transmission of the chronic wasting disease (CWD) prion among cervids requires direct interaction with infected animals has been unclear. We report that CWD can be transmitted to susceptible animals indirectly, from environments contaminated by excreta or decomposed carcasses. Under experimental conditions, mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) became infected in two of three paddocks containing naturally infected deer, in two of three paddocks where infected deer carcasses had decomposed in situ =1.8 years earlier, and in one of three paddocks where infected deer had last resided 2.2 years earlier. Indirect transmission and environmental persistence of infectious prions will complicate efforts to control CWD and perhaps other animal prion diseases.