Towards a novel biosphere in 2300: rapid and extensive global and biome-wide climatic novelty in the Anthropocene

Recent climate change has effectively rewound the climate clock by approximately 120 000 years and is expected to reverse this clock a further 50 Myr by 2100. We aimed to answer two essential questions to better understand the changes in ecosystems worldwide owing to predicted climate change. Firstly, we identify the locations and time frames where novel ecosystems could emerge owing to climate change. Secondly, we aim to determine the extent to which biomes, in their current distribution, will experience an increase in climate-driven ecological novelty. To answer these questions, we analysed three perspectives on how climate changes could result in novel ecosystems in the near term (2100), medium (2200) and long term (2300). These perspectives included identifying areas where climate change could result in new climatic combinations, climate isoclines moving faster than species migration capacity and current environmental patterns being disaggregated. Using these metrics, we determined when and where novel ecosystems could emerge. Our analysis shows that unless rapid mitigation measures are taken, the coverage of novel ecosystems could be over 50% of the land surface by 2100 under all change scenarios. By 2300, the coverage of novel ecosystems could be above 80% of the land surface. At the biome scale, these changes could mean that over 50% of locations could shift towards novel ecosystems, with the majority seeing these changes in the next few decades. Our research shows that the impact of climate change on ecosystems is complex and varied, requiring global action to mitigate and adapt to these changes. This article is part of the theme issue 'Biodiversity dynamics and stewardship in a transforming biosphere'. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

The exposure of the world's mountains to global change drivers

Global change affects mountain areas at different levels, with some mountains being more exposed to change in climate or environmental conditions and others acting as local refugia. We quantified the exposure of the world's mountains to three drivers of change, climate, land use, and human population density, using two spatial-temporal metrics (velocity and magnitude of change). We estimated the acceleration of change for these drivers by comparing past (1975-2005) vs. future (2020-2050) exposure, and we also compared exposure in lowlands vs. mountains. We found Africa's tropical mountains facing the highest future exposure to multiple drivers of change, thus requiring targeted adaptation and mitigation strategies to preserve biodiversity. European and North America's mountains, in contrast, experience more limited exposure to global change and could act as local refugia for biodiversity. This knowledge can be used to prioritize local-scale interventions and planning long-term monitoring to reduce the risks faced by mountain biodiversity.

Historical biogeography and evolutionary diversification of Lilium (Liliaceae): New insights from plastome phylogenomics

Here, we infer the historical biogeography and evolutionary diversification of the genus Lilium. For this purpose, we used the complete plastomes of 64 currently accepted species in the genus Lilium (14 plastomes were newly sequenced) to recover the phylogenetic backbone of the genus and a time-calibrated phylogenetic framework to estimate biogeographical history scenarios and evolutionary diversification rates of Lilium. Our results suggest that ancient climatic changes and geological tectonic activities jointly shaped the distribution range and drove evolutionary radiation of Lilium, including the Middle Miocene Climate Optimum (MMCO), the late Miocene global cooling, as well as the successive uplift of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) and the strengthening of the monsoon climate in East Asia during the late Miocene and the Pliocene. This case study suggests that the unique geological and climatic events in the Neogene of East Asia, in particular the uplift of QTP and the enhancement of monsoonal climate, may have played an essential role in formation of uneven distribution of plant diversity in the Northern Hemisphere.

Changes in limiting factors for forager population dynamics in Europe across the last glacial-interglacial transition

Population dynamics set the framework for human genetic and cultural evolution. For foragers, demographic and environmental changes correlate strongly, although the causal relations between different environmental variables and human responses through time and space likely varied. Building on the notion of limiting factors, namely that at any one time, the scarcest resource caps population size, we present a statistical approach to identify the dominant climatic constraints for hunter-gatherer population densities and then hindcast their changing dynamics in Europe for the period between 21,000 to 8000 years ago. Limiting factors shifted from temperature-related variables (effective temperature) during the Pleistocene to a regional mosaic of limiting factors in the Holocene dominated by temperature seasonality and annual precipitation. This spatiotemporal variation suggests that hunter-gatherers needed to overcome very different adaptive challenges in different parts of Europe and that these challenges varied over time. The signatures of these changing adaptations may be visible archaeologically. In addition, the spatial disaggregation of limiting factors from the Pleistocene to the Holocene coincided with and may partly explain the diversification of the cultural geography at this time.

Tree species admixture increases ecosystem service provision in simulated spruce- and beech-dominated stands

Climate-adaptive forest management aims to sustain the provision of multiple forest ecosystem services and biodiversity (ESB). However, it remains largely unknown how changes in adaptive silvicultural interventions affect trade-offs and synergies among ESB in the long term. We used a simulation-based sensitivity analysis to evaluate popular adaptive forest management interventions in representative Swiss low- to mid-elevation beech- and spruce-dominated forest stands. We predicted stand development across the twenty-first century using a novel empirical and temperature-sensitive single-tree forest stand simulator in a fully crossed experimental design to analyse the effects of (1) planting mixtures of Douglas-fir, oak and silver fir, (2) thinning intensity, and (3) harvesting intensity on timber production, carbon storage and biodiversity under three climate scenarios. Simulation results were evaluated in terms of multiple ESB provision, trade-offs and synergies, and individual effects of the adaptive interventions. Timber production increased on average by 45% in scenarios that included tree planting. Tree planting led to pronounced synergies among all ESBs towards the end of the twenty-first century. Increasing the thinning and harvesting intensity affected ESB provision negatively. Our simulations indicated a temperature-driven increase in growth in beech- (+ 12.5%) and spruce-dominated stands (+ 3.7%), but could not account for drought effects on forest dynamics. Our study demonstrates the advantages of multi-scenario sensitivity analysis that enables quantifying effect sizes and directions of management impacts. We showed that admixing new tree species is promising to enhance future ESB provision and synergies among them. These results support strategic decision making in forestry.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10342-022-01474-4.

Coping with arid environments: A critical threshold for human expansion in Europe at the Marine Isotope Stage 12/11 transition? The case of the Iberian Peninsula

Archaeological remains have highlighted the fact that the interglacial Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11 was a threshold from the perspective of hominin evolution in Europe. After the MIS 12 glaciation, considered one of the major climate-driven crises experienced by hominins, the archaeological records show an increasing number of occupations, evidence of new subsistence behaviors, and significant technical innovations. Here, we used statistical and geographic techniques to analyze the amphibian- and reptile-based paleoclimate and habitat reconstructions generated from a large data set of the Iberian Peninsula to (1) investigate if temperature, precipitation, and/or forest cover may have impacted the hominin occupation of the territory during the Early and Middle Pleistocene, (2) propose an 'Iberian' ecological model before and after the MIS 12/11 transition, and (3) evaluate, based on this model, the potential hominin occupation at a European scale. The results indicate the existence of climatic constraints on human settlement related to rainfall and environmental humidity. The Early Pleistocene and the first half of the Middle Pleistocene are dominated by the occupation of relatively humid wooded areas, whereas during the second part of the Middle Pleistocene, a broadening of the earlier ecological niche is clearly observed toward the occupation of more open arid areas. Based on the estimated occupational niche for hominins, a maximum potential distribution for early hominins is proposed in Europe before and after 426 ka. Results also indicate that parts of the Iberian Peninsula may not have been suitable for early hominin occupation. Our ecological model is consistent with the pattern of hominin occupation observed in northern and central Europe, where the earliest evidence reflects only pioneering populations merely extending their ranges in response to the expansion of their preferred habitats, as compared with a more sustained occupation by 400 ka.

Keeping pace with climate change in global terrestrial protected areas

Protected areas (PAs) are essential to biodiversity conservation, but their static boundaries may undermine their potential for protecting species under climate change. We assessed how the climatic conditions within global terrestrial PAs may change over time. By 2070, protection is expected to decline in cold and warm climates and increase in cool and hot climates over a wide range of precipitation. Most countries are expected to fail to protect >90% of their available climate at current levels. The evenness of climatic representation under protection-not the amount of area protected-positively influenced the retention of climatic conditions under protection. On average, protection retention would increase by ~118% if countries doubled their climatic representativeness under protection or by ~102% if countries collectively reduced emissions in accordance with global targets. Therefore, alongside adoption of mitigation policies, adaptation policies that improve the complementarity of climatic conditions within PAs will help countries safeguard biodiversity.

Predicted climate shifts within terrestrial protected areas worldwide

Protected areas (PA) are refugia of biodiversity. However, anthropogenic climate change induces a redistribution of life on Earth that affects the effectiveness of PAs. When species are forced to migrate from protected to unprotected areas to track suitable climate, they often face degraded habitats in human-dominated landscapes and a higher extinction threat. Here, we assess how climate conditions are expected to shift within the world's terrestrial PAs (n = 137,432). PAs in the temperate and northern high-latitude biomes are predicted to obtain especially high area proportions of climate conditions that are novel within the PA network at the local, regional and global scale by the end of this century. These PAs are predominantly small, at low elevation, with low environmental heterogeneity, high human pressure, and low biotic uniqueness. Our results guide adaptation measures towards PAs that are strongly affected by climate change, and of low adaption capacity and high conservation value.

Climate change reduces resilience to fire in subalpine rainforests

Climate change is affecting the distribution of species and the functioning of ecosystems. For species that are slow growing and poorly dispersed, climate change can force a lag between the distributions of species and the geographic distributions of their climatic envelopes, exposing species to the risk of extinction. Climate also governs the resilience of species and ecosystems to disturbance, such as wildfire. Here we use species distribution modelling and palaeoecology to assess and test the impact of vegetation-climate disequilibrium on the resilience of an endangered fire-sensitive rainforest community to fires. First, we modelled the probability of occurrence of Athrotaxis spp. and Nothofagus gunnii rainforest in Tasmania (hereon "montane rainforest") as a function of climate. We then analysed three pollen and charcoal records spanning the last 7,500 cal year BP from within both high (n = 1) and low (n = 2) probability of occurrence areas. Our study indicates that climatic change between 3,000 and 4,000 cal year bp induced a disequilibrium between montane rainforests and climate that drove a loss of resilience of these communities. Current and future climate change are likely to shift the geographic distribution of the climatic envelopes of this plant community further, suggesting that current high-resilience locations will face a reduction in resilience. Coupled with the forecast of increasing fire activity in southern temperate regions, this heralds a significant threat to this and other slow growing, poorly dispersed and fire sensitive forest systems that are common in the southern mid to high latitudes.

Where do they go? The effects of topography and habitat diversity on reducing climatic debt in birds

The spatial tracking of climatic shifts is frequently reported as a biodiversity response to climatic change. However, species' range shifts are often idiosyncratic and inconsistent with climatic shift predictions. At the community scale, this discrepancy can be measured by comparing the spatial shift in the relative composition of cold- vs. warm-adapted species in a local assemblage [the community temperature index (CTI)] with the spatial shift in temperature isotherms. While the local distribution of climate change velocity is a promising approach to downscaling climate change pressure and responses, CTI velocity has only been investigated on a continental or national scale. In this study, we coupled French Breeding Bird Survey data, collected from 2133 sites monitored between 2001 and 2012, with climatic data in order to estimate the local magnitude and direction of breeding season temperature shift, CTI shift, and their spatiotemporal divergence - the local climatic debt. We also tested whether landscape characteristics that are known to affect climate velocity and spatial tracking of climate change mediated the climatic debt on the local scale. We found a clear spatial structure, together with heterogeneity in both temperature and CTI spatial shifts. Local climatic debt decreased as the elevation, habitat diversity, and the naturalness of the landscape increased. These results suggest the complementary effects of the local topographic patterns sheltering more diverse microclimates and the increasing permeability of natural and diversified landscape. Our findings suggest that a more nuanced evaluation of spatial variability in climatic and biotic shifts is necessary in order to properly describe biodiversity responses to climate change rather than the oversimplified descriptions of uniform poleward shifts.

The pace of past climate change vs. potential bird distributions and land use in the United States

Climate change may drastically alter patterns of species distributions and richness, but predicting future species patterns in occurrence is challenging. Significant shifts in distributions have already been observed, and understanding these recent changes can improve our understanding of potential future changes. We assessed how past climate change affected potential breeding distributions for landbird species in the conterminous United States. We quantified the bioclimatic velocity of potential breeding distributions, that is, the pace and direction of change for each species' suitable climate space over the past 60 years. We found that potential breeding distributions for landbirds have shifted substantially with an average velocity of 1.27 km yr(-1) , about double the pace of prior distribution shift estimates across terrestrial systems globally (0.61 km yr(-1) ). The direction of shifts was not uniform. The majority of species' distributions shifted west, northwest, and north. Multidirectional shifts suggest that changes in climate conditions beyond mean temperature were influencing distributional changes. Indeed, precipitation variables that were proxies for extreme conditions were important variables across all models. There were winners and losers in terms of the area of distributions; many species experienced contractions along west and east distribution edges, and expansions along northern distribution edges. Changes were also reflected in the potential species richness, with some regions potentially gaining species (Midwest, East) and other areas potentially losing species (Southwest). However, the degree to which changes in potential breeding distributions are manifested in actual species richness depends on landcover. Areas that have become increasingly suitable for breeding birds due to changing climate are often those attractive to humans for agriculture and development. This suggests that many areas might have supported more breeding bird species had the landscape not been altered. Our study illustrates that climate change is not only a future threat, but something birds are already experiencing.

Oligocene niche shift, Miocene diversification - cold tolerance and accelerated speciation rates in the St. John's Worts (Hypericum, Hypericaceae)

Background

Our aim is to understand the evolution of species-rich plant groups that shifted from tropical into cold/temperate biomes. It is well known that climate affects evolutionary processes, such as how fast species diversify, species range shifts, and species distributions. Many plant lineages may have gone extinct in the Northern Hemisphere due to Late Eocene climate cooling, while some tropical lineages may have adapted to temperate conditions and radiated; the hyper-diverse and geographically widespread genus Hypericum is one of these.

Results

To investigate the effect of macroecological niche shifts on evolutionary success we combine historical biogeography with analyses of diversification dynamics and climatic niche shifts in a phylogenetic framework. Hypericum evolved cold tolerance c. 30 million years ago, and successfully colonized all ice-free continents, where today ~500 species exist. The other members of Hypericaceae stayed in their tropical habitats and evolved into ~120 species. We identified a 15–20 million year lag between the initial change in temperature preference in Hypericum and subsequent diversification rate shifts in the Miocene.

Conclusions

Contrary to the dramatic niche shift early in the evolution of Hypericum most extant species occur in temperate climates including high elevations in the tropics. These cold/temperate niches are a distinctive characteristic of Hypericum. We conclude that the initial release from an evolutionary constraint (from tropical to temperate climates) is an important novelty in Hypericum. However, the initial shift in the adaptive landscape into colder climates appears to be a precondition, and may not be directly related to increased diversification rates. Instead, subsequent events of mountain formation and further climate cooling may better explain distribution patterns and species-richness in Hypericum. These findings exemplify important macroevolutionary patterns of plant diversification during large-scale global climate change.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12862-015-0359-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.