13
|
Wang H, Liddell CA, Coates MM, Mooney MD, Levitz CE, Schumacher AE, Apfel H, Iannarone M, Phillips B, Lofgren KT, Sandar L, Dorrington RE, Rakovac I, Jacobs TA, Liang X, Zhou M, Zhu J, Yang G, Wang Y, Liu S, Li Y, Ozgoren AA, Abera SF, Abubakar I, Achoki T, Adelekan A, Ademi Z, Alemu ZA, Allen PJ, AlMazroa MA, Alvarez E, Amankwaa AA, Amare AT, Ammar W, Anwari P, Cunningham SA, Asad MM, Assadi R, Banerjee A, Basu S, Bedi N, Bekele T, Bell ML, Bhutta Z, Blore JD, Basara BB, Boufous S, Breitborde N, Bruce NG, Bui LN, Carapetis JR, Cárdenas R, Carpenter DO, Caso V, Castro RE, Catalá-Lopéz F, Cavlin A, Che X, Chiang PPC, Chowdhury R, Christophi CA, Chuang TW, Cirillo M, da Costa Leite I, Courville KJ, Dandona L, Dandona R, Davis A, Dayama A, Deribe K, Dharmaratne SD, Dherani MK, Dilmen U, Ding EL, Edmond KM, Ermakov SP, Farzadfar F, Fereshtehnejad SM, Fijabi DO, Foigt N, Forouzanfar MH, Garcia AC, Geleijnse JM, Gessner BD, Goginashvili K, Gona P, Goto A, Gouda HN, Green MA, Greenwell KF, Gugnani HC, Gupta R, Hamadeh RR, Hammami M, Harb HL, Hay S, Hedayati MT, Hosgood HD, Hoy DG, Idrisov BT, Islami F, Ismayilova S, Jha V, Jiang G, Jonas JB, Juel K, Kabagambe EK, Kazi DS, Kengne AP, Kereselidze M, Khader YS, Khalifa SEAH, Khang YH, Kim D, Kinfu Y, Kinge JM, Kokubo Y, Kosen S, Defo BK, Kumar GA, Kumar K, Kumar RB, Lai T, Lan Q, Larsson A, Lee JT, Leinsalu M, Lim SS, Lipshultz SE, Logroscino G, Lotufo PA, Lunevicius R, Lyons RA, Ma S, Mahdi AA, Marzan MB, Mashal MT, Mazorodze TT, McGrath JJ, Memish ZA, Mendoza W, Mensah GA, Meretoja A, Miller TR, Mills EJ, Mohammad KA, Mokdad AH, Monasta L, Montico M, Moore AR, Moschandreas J, Msemburi WT, Mueller UO, Muszynska MM, Naghavi M, Naidoo KS, Narayan KMV, Nejjari C, Ng M, de Dieu Ngirabega J, Nieuwenhuijsen MJ, Nyakarahuka L, Ohkubo T, Omer SB, Caicedo AJP, Pillay-van Wyk V, Pope D, Pourmalek F, Prabhakaran D, Rahman SUR, Rana SM, Reilly RQ, Rojas-Rueda D, Ronfani L, Rushton L, Saeedi MY, Salomon JA, Sampson U, Santos IS, Sawhney M, Schmidt JC, Shakh-Nazarova M, She J, Sheikhbahaei S, Shibuya K, Shin HH, Shishani K, Shiue I, Sigfusdottir ID, Singh JA, Skirbekk V, Sliwa K, Soshnikov SS, Sposato LA, Stathopoulou VK, Stroumpoulis K, Tabb KM, Talongwa RT, Teixeira CM, Terkawi AS, Thomson AJ, Thorne-Lyman AL, Toyoshima H, Dimbuene ZT, Uwaliraye P, Uzun SB, Vasankari TJ, Vasconcelos AMN, Vlassov VV, Vollset SE, Waller S, Wan X, Weichenthal S, Weiderpass E, Weintraub RG, Westerman R, Wilkinson JD, Williams HC, Yang YC, Yentur GK, Yip P, Yonemoto N, Younis M, Yu C, Jin KY, El Sayed Zaki M, Zhu S, Vos T, Lopez AD, Murray CJL. Global, regional, and national levels of neonatal, infant, and under-5 mortality during 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013. Lancet 2014; 384:957-79. [PMID: 24797572 PMCID: PMC4165626 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(14)60497-9] [Citation(s) in RCA: 530] [Impact Index Per Article: 53.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/15/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Remarkable financial and political efforts have been focused on the reduction of child mortality during the past few decades. Timely measurements of levels and trends in under-5 mortality are important to assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target of reduction of child mortality by two thirds from 1990 to 2015, and to identify models of success. METHODS We generated updated estimates of child mortality in early neonatal (age 0-6 days), late neonatal (7-28 days), postneonatal (29-364 days), childhood (1-4 years), and under-5 (0-4 years) age groups for 188 countries from 1970 to 2013, with more than 29,000 survey, census, vital registration, and sample registration datapoints. We used Gaussian process regression with adjustments for bias and non-sampling error to synthesise the data for under-5 mortality for each country, and a separate model to estimate mortality for more detailed age groups. We used explanatory mixed effects regression models to assess the association between under-5 mortality and income per person, maternal education, HIV child death rates, secular shifts, and other factors. To quantify the contribution of these different factors and birth numbers to the change in numbers of deaths in under-5 age groups from 1990 to 2013, we used Shapley decomposition. We used estimated rates of change between 2000 and 2013 to construct under-5 mortality rate scenarios out to 2030. FINDINGS We estimated that 6·3 million (95% UI 6·0-6·6) children under-5 died in 2013, a 64% reduction from 17·6 million (17·1-18·1) in 1970. In 2013, child mortality rates ranged from 152·5 per 1000 livebirths (130·6-177·4) in Guinea-Bissau to 2·3 (1·8-2·9) per 1000 in Singapore. The annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2013 ranged from -6·8% to 0·1%. 99 of 188 countries, including 43 of 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, had faster decreases in child mortality during 2000-13 than during 1990-2000. In 2013, neonatal deaths accounted for 41·6% of under-5 deaths compared with 37·4% in 1990. Compared with 1990, in 2013, rising numbers of births, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, led to 1·4 million more child deaths, and rising income per person and maternal education led to 0·9 million and 2·2 million fewer deaths, respectively. Changes in secular trends led to 4·2 million fewer deaths. Unexplained factors accounted for only -1% of the change in child deaths. In 30 developing countries, decreases since 2000 have been faster than predicted attributable to income, education, and secular shift alone. INTERPRETATION Only 27 developing countries are expected to achieve MDG 4. Decreases since 2000 in under-5 mortality rates are accelerating in many developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The Millennium Declaration and increased development assistance for health might have been a factor in faster decreases in some developing countries. Without further accelerated progress, many countries in west and central Africa will still have high levels of under-5 mortality in 2030. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, US Agency for International Development.
Collapse
Affiliation(s)
- Haidong Wang
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
| | - Chelsea A Liddell
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Matthew M Coates
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Meghan D Mooney
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Carly E Levitz
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Austin E Schumacher
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Henry Apfel
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Marissa Iannarone
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Bryan Phillips
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Katherine T Lofgren
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Logan Sandar
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | | | - Ivo Rakovac
- WHO Regional Office for Europe, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | - Troy A Jacobs
- MCH Division, USAID - Global Health Bureau, HIDN, Washington, DC, USA
| | - Xiaofeng Liang
- National Center for Chronic and Non-Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Maigeng Zhou
- National Center for Chronic and Non-Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Jun Zhu
- National Office for Maternal and Child's Health Surveillance, Chengdu, China
| | - Gonghuan Yang
- Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China; Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China
| | - Yanping Wang
- National Office for Maternal and Child's Health Surveillance, Chengdu, China
| | - Shiwei Liu
- National Center for Chronic and Non-Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | - Yichong Li
- National Center for Chronic and Non-Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing, China
| | | | | | | | - Tom Achoki
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Ministry of Health, Gaborone, Botswana
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Azmeraw T Amare
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Groningen, Groningen, Netherlands
| | | | | | | | | | - Reza Assadi
- Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Khorasan, Iran
| | - Amitava Banerjee
- University of Birmingham, Birmingham, West Midlands, United Kingdom
| | | | - Neeraj Bedi
- College of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Jazan, Saudi Arabia
| | | | | | | | - Jed D Blore
- University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | - Berrak Bora Basara
- Ministry of Health, General Directorate of Health Research, Ankara, Turkey
| | - Soufiane Boufous
- Transport and Road Safety (TARS) Research, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Valeria Caso
- Stroke Unit, University of Perugia, Perugia, Italy
| | | | - Ferrán Catalá-Lopéz
- Division of Pharmacology and Pharmacovigilance, Spanish Medicines and Healthcare Products Agency (AEMPS), Ministry of Health, Madrid, Spain
| | - Alanur Cavlin
- Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies, Ankara, Turkey
| | - Xuan Che
- National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Lalit Dandona
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Public Health Foundation of India, New Delhi, India
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Uğur Dilmen
- Ministry of Health, General Directorate of Health Research, Ankara, Turkey
| | - Eric L Ding
- Harvard School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
| | | | - Sergei Petrovich Ermakov
- The Institute of Social and Economic Studies of Population at the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
| | - Farshad Farzadfar
- Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Endocrine and Metabolic Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | | | - Nataliya Foigt
- Institute of Gerontology, Academy of Medical Sciences, Kyiv, Ukraine
| | | | - Ana C Garcia
- Public Health Unit of Primary Health Care Group of Almada-Seixal (region of Lisbon), Almada, Portugal
| | - Johanna M Geleijnse
- Wageningen University, Division of Human Nutrition, Wageningen, the Netherlands
| | | | | | - Philimon Gona
- University of Massachusetts Medical School, Worcester, MA, USA
| | - Atsushi Goto
- Department of Diabetes Research, National Center for Global Health and Medicine, Tokyo, Japan
| | - Hebe N Gouda
- University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, Australia
| | - Mark A Green
- University of Sheffield, Sheffield, South York, United Kingdom
| | | | | | - Rahul Gupta
- Kanawha Charleston Health Department, Charleston, WV, USA
| | | | - Mouhanad Hammami
- Wayne County Department of Health and Human Services, Detroit, MI, USA
| | | | - Simon Hay
- University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | | | | | - Damian G Hoy
- School of Population Health, Brisbane, QLD, Australia; Public Health Division, Secretariat of the Pacific Community, Noumea, New Caledonia
| | | | | | | | - Vivekanand Jha
- Postgraduate Institute of Medical Education and Research, Chandigarh, India
| | - Guohong Jiang
- Tianjin Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Tianjin, China
| | - Jost B Jonas
- Department of Ophthalmology, Medical Faculty Mannheim, Mannheim, Germany
| | - Knud Juel
- The National Institute of Public Health, Copenhagen, Denmark
| | | | - Dhruv S Kazi
- University of California San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, USA
| | - Andre Pascal Kengne
- South African Medical Research Council, Cape Town, Western Cape, South Africa
| | - Maia Kereselidze
- National Centre for Diseases Control and Public Health, Tbilisi, Georgia
| | | | | | - Young-Ho Khang
- Institute of Health Policy and Management, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul, South Korea
| | - Daniel Kim
- Northeastern University, Boston, MA, USA
| | | | - Jonas M Kinge
- The Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway
| | - Yoshihiro Kokubo
- Department of Preventive Cardiology, Department of Preventive Medicine and Epidemiologic Informatics, National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center, Suita, Osaka, Japan
| | - Soewarta Kosen
- Center for Community Empowerment, Health Policy & Humanities, NIHRD, Jakarta, Indonesia
| | | | - G Anil Kumar
- Public Health Foundation of India, New Delhi, India
| | | | - Ravi B Kumar
- Public Health Foundation of India, New Delhi, India
| | - Taavi Lai
- Fourth View Consulting, Tallinn, Estonia
| | - Qing Lan
- National Cancer Institute, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | | | | | - Mall Leinsalu
- The National Institute for Health Development, Tallinn, Estonia
| | - Stephen S Lim
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Stefan Ma
- Ministry of Health Singapore, Singapore
| | - Abbas Ali Mahdi
- King George's Medical University, Lucknow, Uttar Pradesh, India
| | | | | | | | | | - Ziad A Memish
- Saudi Ministry of Health, Riyadh, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia
| | | | - George A Mensah
- Center for Translation Research and Implementation Science (CTRIS), National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | | | - Ted R Miller
- Pacific Institute for Research & Evaluation, Calverton, MD, USA
| | | | | | - Ali H Mokdad
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Lorenzo Monasta
- Institute for Maternal and Child Health - IRCCS "Burlo Garofolo," Trieste, Italy
| | - Marcella Montico
- Institute for Maternal and Child Health - IRCCS "Burlo Garofolo," Trieste, Italy
| | | | | | - William T Msemburi
- South African Medical Research Council, Cape Town, Western Cape, South Africa
| | | | | | - Mohsen Naghavi
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Kovin S Naidoo
- University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa
| | | | - Chakib Nejjari
- Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, Faculty of Medicine and Pharmacy, University sidi Mohamed Ben Abdellah, Fez, Morocco
| | - Marie Ng
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Dan Pope
- University of Liverpool, Merseyside, United Kingdom
| | | | | | | | - Saleem M Rana
- Department of Public Health, University of the Punjab, Lahore, Punjab, Pakistan
| | | | - David Rojas-Rueda
- Centre of Research in Environmental Epidemiology (CREAL), Barcelona, Spain
| | - Luca Ronfani
- Institute for Maternal and Child Health - IRCCS "Burlo Garofolo," Trieste, Italy
| | | | | | - Joshua A Salomon
- Harvard School of Public Health, Harvard University, Boston, MA, USA
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Jun She
- Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan, University, Shanghai, China
| | - Sara Sheikhbahaei
- Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Endocrine and Metabolic Research Institute, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran
| | | | | | | | - Ivy Shiue
- Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh, Scotland, United Kingdom
| | | | | | | | - Karen Sliwa
- Faculty of Health Sciences, Hatter Institute for Cardiovascular Research in Africa, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa
| | - Sergey S Soshnikov
- Federal Research Institute for Health Organization and Informatics of Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russia
| | - Luciano A Sposato
- Department of Clinical Neurological Sciences, Western University, London, Ontario, Canada
| | | | - Konstantinos Stroumpoulis
- KEELPNO (Center for Disease Control, Greece, dispatched to "Alexandra" General Hospital of Athens), Athens, Greece
| | | | | | | | - Abdullah Sulieman Terkawi
- Department of Anesthesiology, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA; Department of Anesthesiology, King Fahad Medical City, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
| | | | | | - Hideaki Toyoshima
- Health Care Center of Anjo Kosei Hospital, Anjo City, Aichi Prefecture, Japan
| | - Zacharie Tsala Dimbuene
- Department of Population Sciences and Development, Faculty of Economics and Management, University of Kinshasa, Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Rwanda, Kigali City, Rwanda
| | | | - Selen Begüm Uzun
- Ministry of Health, General Directorate of Health Research, Ankara, Turkey
| | | | | | | | | | - Stephen Waller
- Uniformed Services University of Health Sciences, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Xia Wan
- Institute of Basic Medical Sciences, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, Beijing, China
| | | | | | - Robert G Weintraub
- University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Murdoch Children's Research Institute, Royal Children's Hospital, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | | | | | | | - Yang C Yang
- University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC. USA
| | | | - Paul Yip
- The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong
| | - Naohiro Yonemoto
- National Center of Neurology and Psychiatry, Kodira, Tokyo, Japan
| | | | - Chuanhua Yu
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, and Global Health Institute, Wuhan University, Wuhan, Hubei, China
| | - Kim Yun Jin
- TCM MEDICAL TK SDN BHD, Nusajaya, Johor Bahru, Malaysia
| | | | - Shankuan Zhu
- Zhejiang University School of Public Health, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China
| | - Theo Vos
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Alan D Lopez
- University of Melbourne, Melbourne, VIC, Australia
| | | |
Collapse
|