The dynamics of the stratospheric polar vortex and its relation to springtime ozone depletions

Features of Winter Stratosphere Small-Scale Disturbance during Sudden Stratospheric Warmings

We analyzed the characteristics of small-scale wave disturbances emerging during the evolution and transformation of the jet stream (JS) in the winter stratosphere and the lower mesosphere of the northern hemisphere, including the periods of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events. Continuous generation of small-scale wave disturbances is shown to occur over quiet geomagnetic winter periods in the region of a steady jet stream in the strato–mesosphere. We studied spatial spectra for the vertical velocity variations, determined by the parameters of emerging wave disturbances. The greatest intensities of disturbances are recorded in the regions corresponding to the high velocities of the JS (from 100 m/s and higher). In the northern hemisphere, those latitudes encompass ~40–60° N. When a steady jet stream forms, the horizontal length and periods of the most intensive wavelike disturbances are shown to vary within 300–1000 km and 50–150 min correspondingly (which match the characteristic scales of internal gravity waves, or IGWs). During the SSW prewarming stage, the JS transforms substantially. Over the same periods, a disturbance intensification is recorded, as well as the emergence of larger-scale disturbances with 3000–5000-km horizontal wavelengths, and even higher. After the SSW peak and during the stratosphere circulation recovery, the velocity in the JS substantially decreases and an essential reduction in wave-disturbance generation occurs. There are decreases in the average amplitude values (by factors of 1.8–6.7). The strongest amplitude drop was observed for short waves (zonal wavelength λU = 300 km). The maximum attenuation for all wavelengths was observed for the strongest 2008/2009 winter SSW. For the analyzed events, such attenuation was observed for up to about a month after the SSW peak. Thus, JS disruption during major SSWs leads to deactivating the source for generating small-scale wave disturbances in the stratosphere. This may affect disturbances in higher atmospheric layers. The results obtained are the experimental evidence that JS itself is the primary source for the generation of IGWs in the stratosphere–lower mesosphere.

Photo-generated hydroxyl radicals contribute to the formation of halogen radicals leading to ozone depletion on and within polar stratospheric clouds surface

Polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs), of which the surface is a dynamic liquid water layer and might consist of aqueous HNO₃ and H₂O₂, is a well-known key meteorological condition contributing to the ozone hole in the polar stratosphere. PSCs has been considered to provide abundant surface for the heterogeneous reactions causing the formation of the Cl₂ and HOCl, which are further photolyzed into Cl and ClO radicals leading to the ozone destruction. Here we demonstrated that the sunlight drives the massive and stable production of OH radicals in aqueous HNO₃ and its main photo-induced byproduct HNO₂. We also found that the photo-generated OH radicals in aqueous HNO₃, HNO₂ and H₂O₂ have the remarkable capability to react with the dissolved HCl, Cl^- and Br^- to form halogen radicals. In addition, we observed that the H₂O₂ can react with dissolved HCl and Br^- in darkness to form and release Cl₂ and Br₂ gases, which could further be photolyzed into reactive halogen radicals whenever sunlight is available. All these findings suggest that, except for the well-known heterogeneous reactions, photochemical reactions involving the aqueous HNO₃ and H₂O₂ on and within PSCs surface might constitute another important halogen activation pathway for ozone destruction. This study may shed deeper insights into the mechanism of halogen radicals resulting in ozone depletion in polar stratosphere.

Why Do Antarctic Ozone Recovery Trends Vary?

We use satellite ozone records and Global Modeling Initiative chemistry transport model simulations integrated with Modern Era Retrospective for Research and Analysis 2 meteorology to identify a metric that accurately captures the trend in Antarctic ozone attributable to the decline in ozone depleting substances (ODSs). The GMI CTM Baseline simulation with realistically varying ODS levels closely matches observed interannual to decadal scale variations in Antarctic September ozone over the past four decades. The expected increase or recovery trend is obtained from the differences between the Baseline simulation and one with identical meteorology and fixed 1995 ODS levels. The differences show that vortex-averaged column O₃ has the greatest sensitivity to ODS change from 1 to 20 September. The observed vortex-averaged column O₃ during this period produces a trend consistent with the expected recovery attributable to ODS decline. Trends from dates after 20 September have smaller sensitivity to ODS decline and are more uncertain due to transport variability. Simulations show that the greatest decrease in O₃ loss (i.e., recovery) occurs inside the vortex near the edge. The polar cap metrics have vortex size-dependent bias and do not consistently sample this region. Because the 60-90°S 220 Dobson unit O₃ mass deficit metric does not sample the edge region, its trend is lower than the expected trend; this is improved by area weighting. The 250-Dobson unit O₃ mass deficit metric samples more of the edge region, which increases its trend. Approximately 25% of the September Antarctic O₃ increase is due to higher O₃ levels in June prior to winter depletion.

100 Years of Progress in Gas-Phase Atmospheric Chemistry Research

Remarkable progress has occurred over the last 100 years in our understanding of atmospheric chemical composition, stratospheric and tropospheric chemistry, urban air pollution, acid rain, and the formation of airborne particles from gas-phase chemistry. Much of this progress was associated with the developing understanding of the formation and role of ozone and of the oxides of nitrogen, NO and NO2, in the stratosphere and troposphere. The chemistry of the stratosphere, emerging from the pioneering work of Chapman in 1931, was followed by the discovery of catalytic ozone cycles, ozone destruction by chlorofluorocarbons, and the polar ozone holes, work honored by the 1995 Nobel Prize in Chemistry awarded to Crutzen, Rowland, and Molina. Foundations for the modern understanding of tropospheric chemistry were laid in the 1950s and 1960s, stimulated by the eye-stinging smog in Los Angeles. The importance of the hydroxyl (OH) radical and its relationship to the oxides of nitrogen (NO and NO2) emerged. The chemical processes leading to acid rain were elucidated. The atmosphere contains an immense number of gas-phase organic compounds, a result of emissions from plants and animals, natural and anthropogenic combustion processes, emissions from oceans, and from the atmospheric oxidation of organics emitted into the atmosphere. Organic atmospheric particulate matter arises largely as gas-phase organic compounds undergo oxidation to yield low-volatility products that condense into the particle phase. A hundred years ago, quantitative theories of chemical reaction rates were nonexistent. Today, comprehensive computer codes are available for performing detailed calculations of chemical reaction rates and mechanisms for atmospheric reactions. Understanding the future role of atmospheric chemistry in climate change and, in turn, the impact of climate change on atmospheric chemistry, will be critical to developing effective policies to protect the planet.

Reanalysis intercomparisons of stratospheric polar processing diagnostics

We compare herein polar processing diagnostics derived from the four most recent full-input reanalysis datasets: the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System Reanalysis / Climate Forecast System, version 2 (CFSR/CFSv2), the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Interim Reanalysis (ERA-Interim), the Japanese Meteorological Agency's Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55), and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Modern Era Retrospective-analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2). We focus on diagnostics based on temperatures and potential vorticity (PV) in the lower to middle stratosphere that are related to formation of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs), chlorine activation, and the strength, size, and longevity of the stratospheric polar vortex. Polar minimum temperatures (Tmin) and the area of regions having temperatures below PSC formation thresholds (APSC) show large persistent differences between the reanalyses, especially in the southern hemisphere (SH), for years prior to 1999. Average absolute differences of the reanalyses from the reanalysis ensemble mean (REM) in Tmin are as large as 3 K at some levels in the SH (1.5 K in the NH), and absolute differences of reanalysis APSC from the REM up to 1.5% of a hemisphere (0.75% of a hemisphere in the NH). After 1999, the reanalyses converge toward better agreement in both hemispheres, dramatically so in the SH: Average Tmin differences from the REM are generally less than 1 K in both hemispheres, and average APSC differences less than 0.3% of a hemisphere. The comparisons of diagnostics based on isentropic PV for assessing polar vortex characteristics, including maximum PV gradients (MPVG) and the area of the vortex in sunlight (or sunlit vortex area, SVA), show more complex behavior: SH MPVG showed convergence toward better agreement with the REM after 1999, while NH MPVG differences remained largely constant over time; differences in SVA remained relatively constant in both hemispheres. While the average differences from the REM are generally small for these vortex diagnostics, understanding such differences among the reanalyses is complicated by the need to use different methods to obtain vertically-resolved PV for the different reanalyses. We also evaluated other winter season summary diagnostics, including the winter mean volume of air below PSC thresholds, and vortex decay dates. For the volume of air below PSC thresholds, the reanalyses generally agree best in the SH, where relatively small interannual variability has led to many winter seasons with similar polar processing potential and duration, and thus low sensitivity to differences in meteorological conditions among the reanalyses. In contrast, the large interannual variability of NH winters has given rise to many seasons with marginal conditions that are more sensitive to reanalysis differences. For vortex decay dates, larger differences are seen in the SH than in the NH; in general the differences in decay dates among the reanalyses follow from persistent differences in their vortex areas. Our results indicate that the transition from the reanalyses assimilating Tiros Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) data to Advanced TOVS and other data around 1998 - 2000 resulted in a profound improvement in the agreement of the temperature diagnostics presented (especially in the SH) and to a lesser extent the agreement of the vortex diagnostics. We present several recommendations for using reanalyses in polar processing studies, particularly related to the sensitivity to changes in data inputs and assimilation. Because of these sensitivities, we urge great caution for studies aiming to assess trends derived from reanalysis temperatures. We also argue that one of the best ways to assess the sensitivity of scientific results on polar processing is to use multiple reanalysis datasets.

An extended transfer operator approach to identify separatrices in open flows

Vortices of coherent fluid volume are considered to have a substantial impact on transport processes in turbulent media. Yet, due to their Lagrangian nature, detecting these structures is highly nontrivial. In this respect, transfer operator approaches have been proven to provide useful tools: Approximating a possibly time-dependent flow as a discrete Markov process in space and time, information about coherent structures is contained in the operator's eigenvectors, which is usually extracted by employing clustering methods. Here, we propose an extended approach that couples surrounding filaments using "mixing boundary conditions" and focuses on the separation of the inner coherent set and embedding outer flow. The approach refrains from using unsupervised machine learning techniques such as clustering and uses physical arguments by maximizing a coherence ratio instead. We show that this technique improves the reconstruction of separatrices in stationary open flows and succeeds in finding almost-invariant sets in periodically perturbed flows.

Stratospheric ozone loss over the Eurasian continent induced by the polar vortex shift

The Montreal Protocol has succeeded in limiting major ozone-depleting substance emissions, and consequently stratospheric ozone concentrations are expected to recover this century. However, there is a large uncertainty in the rate of regional ozone recovery in the Northern Hemisphere. Here we identify a Eurasia-North America dipole mode in the total column ozone over the Northern Hemisphere, showing negative and positive total column ozone anomaly centres over Eurasia and North America, respectively. The positive trend of this mode explains an enhanced total column ozone decline over the Eurasian continent in the past three decades, which is closely related to the polar vortex shift towards Eurasia. Multiple chemistry-climate-model simulations indicate that the positive Eurasia-North America dipole trend in late winter is likely to continue in the near future. Our findings suggest that the anticipated ozone recovery in late winter will be sensitive not only to the ozone-depleting substance decline but also to the polar vortex changes, and could be substantially delayed in some regions of the Northern Hemisphere extratropics.

Climate change can exert a significant effect on the ozone recovery. Here, the authors show that the Arctic polar vortex shift associated with Arctic sea-ice loss could slow down ozone recovery over the Eurasian continent.

Free Radicals Within the Antarctic Vortex: The Role of CFCs in Antarctic Ozone Loss

How strong is the case linking global release of chlorofluorocarbons to episodic disappearance of ozone from the Antarctic stratosphere each austral spring? Three lines of evidence defining a link are (i) observed containment in the vortex of ClO concentrations two orders of magnitude greater than normal levels; (ii) in situ observations obtained during ten high-altitude aircraft flights into the vortex as the ozone hole was forming that show a decrease in ozone concentrations as ClO concentrations increased; and (iii) a comparison between observed ozone loss rates and those predicted with the use of absolute concentrations of ClO and BrO, the rate-limiting radicals in an array of proposed catalytic cycles. Recent advances in our understanding of the kinetics, photochemistry, and structural details of key intermediates in these catalytic cycles as well as an improved absolute calibration for ClO and BrO concentrations at the temperatures and pressures encountered in the lower antarctic stratosphere have been essential for defining the link.

The structure and dynamics of Titan's middle atmosphere

Titan's middle atmosphere is characterized by cyclostrophic winds and strong seasonal modulation. Cassini CIRS observations, obtained in northern winter, indicate that the stratosphere near 1mbar is warmest at low latitudes, with the South Pole a few degrees colder and the North Pole approximately 20K colder. Associated with the cold northern temperatures are strong circumpolar winds with speeds as high as 190ms-1. Within this vortex, the mixing ratios of several organic gases are enhanced relative to those at low latitudes. Comparison with Voyager thermal infrared measurements, obtained 25 years ago in northern spring, suggests that the enhancement currently observed will increase as the winter progresses. The stratopause height increases from 0.1mbar near the equator to 0.01mbar near the North Pole, where it is the warmest part of the atmosphere, greater than 200K. This implies subsidence at the pole, which is consistent with the enhanced organics observed. Condensate features, several still not identified, are also apparent in the infrared spectra at high northern latitudes. In many ways, the winter vortex observed on Titan, with cyclostrophic winds, resembles the polar winter vortices on the Earth, where the mean winds are geostrophic.

Mixing and reaction efficiency in closed domains

We present a numerical study of mixing and reaction efficiency in closed domains. In particular, we focus our attention on laminar flows. In the case of inert transport the mixing properties of the flows strongly depend on the details of the Lagrangian transport. We also study the reaction efficiency. Starting with a little spot of product, we compute the time needed to complete the reaction in the container. We find that the reaction efficiency is not strictly related to the mixing properties of the flow. In particular, reaction acts as a "dynamical regulator".

Titan's Atmospheric Temperatures, Winds, and Composition

Temperatures obtained from early Cassini infrared observations of Titan show a stratopause at an altitude of 310 kilometers (and 186 kelvin at 15 degrees S). Stratospheric temperatures are coldest in the winter northern hemisphere, with zonal winds reaching 160 meters per second. The concentrations of several stratospheric organic compounds are enhanced at mid- and high northern latitudes, and the strong zonal winds may inhibit mixing between these latitudes and the rest of Titan. Above the south pole, temperatures in the stratosphere are 4 to 5 kelvin cooler than at the equator. The stratospheric mole fractions of methane and carbon monoxide are (1.6 +/- 0.5) x 10(-2) and (4.5 +/- 1.5) x 10(-5), respectively.

Saturn's Temperature Field from High-Resolution Middle-Infrared Imaging

Saturn was imaged between 8 and 24.5 micrometers at approximately 3000-kilometer resolution with the Keck I Telescope. Saturn's atmosphere has zonal temperature bands, which are mostly uncorrelated with visible cloud reflectivity, strong 100-millibar zonal temperature oscillations near 32 degrees S, a warm south polar cap, and a compact hot point within 3 degrees of the south pole.

Mars' South Polar Ar Enhancement: A Tracer for South Polar Seasonal Meridional Mixing

The gamma ray spectrometer on the Mars Odyssey spacecraft measured an enhancement of atmospheric argon over southern high latitudes during autumn followed by dissipation during winter and spring. Argon does not freeze at temperatures normal for southern winter (approximately 145 kelvin) and is left in the atmosphere, enriched relative to carbon dioxide (CO2), as the southern seasonal cap of CO2 frost accumulates. Calculations of seasonal transport of argon into and out of southern high latitudes point to meridional (north-south) mixing throughout southern winter and spring.

Can ozone depletion and global warming interact to produce rapid climate change?

The atmosphere displays modes of variability whose structures exhibit a strong longitudinally symmetric (annular) component that extends from the surface to the stratosphere in middle and high latitudes of both hemispheres. In the past 30 years, these modes have exhibited trends that seem larger than their natural background variability, and may be related to human influences on stratospheric ozone and/or atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. The pattern of climate trends during the past few decades is marked by rapid cooling and ozone depletion in the polar lower stratosphere of both hemispheres, coupled with an increasing strength of the wintertime westerly polar vortex and a poleward shift of the westerly wind belt at the earth's surface. Annular modes of variability are fundamentally a result of internal dynamical feedbacks within the climate system, and as such can show a large response to rather modest external forcing. The dynamics and thermodynamics of these modes are such that strong synergistic interactions between stratospheric ozone depletion and greenhouse warming are possible. These interactions may be responsible for the pronounced changes in tropospheric and stratospheric climate observed during the past few decades. If these trends continue, they could have important implications for the climate of the 21st century.