A double mass extinction at the end of the paleozoic era

Phylogeny and biogeography of the pantropical whip spider family Charinidae (Arachnida: Amblypygi)

The present contribution addresses the phylogeny and biogeography of the pantropical whip spider family Charinidae Quintero, 1986, the most species-rich in the arachnid order Amblypygi Thorell, 1883, based on morphology and multilocus DNA sequences, analysed simultaneously using parsimony, maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference. The morphological matrix comprises 138 characters, scored for four outgroup taxa and 103 ingroup terminals representing all genera and 64% of the species of Charinidae. The multilocus dataset comprises sequences from two nuclear and three mitochondrial gene loci for four outgroup taxa and 48 ingroup representing 30 (23%) taxa of Charinidae. Charinidae are monophyletic, with Weygoldtia Miranda et al., 2018 sister to a monophyletic group comprising Charinus Simon, 1892 and Sarax Simon, 1892, neither of which are reciprocally monophyletic. Charinidae diverged from other amblypygid families in the Late Carboniferous, c. 318 Mya, on the supercontinent Pangaea. Weygoldtia diverged from the common ancestor of Charinus and Sarax during the Late Permian, c. 257 Mya, when changes in climate reduced tropical forests. The divergence of Charinus and Sarax coincides with the fragmentation of Pangaea, c. 216 Mya. Sarax colonized South-East Asia via Australia. The charinid fauna of New Caledonia originated before the Oligocene, when the island separated from Australia, c. 80 Mya.

Diversity and Disparity of Therocephalia: Macroevolutionary Patterns through Two Mass Extinctions

Mass extinctions have the potential to substantially alter the evolutionary trends in a clade. If new regions of ecospace are made available, the clade may radiate. If, on the other hand, the clade passes through an evolutionary “bottleneck” by substantially reducing its species richness, then subsequent radiations may be restricted in the disparity they attain. Here we compare the patterns of diversity and disparity in the Therocephalia, a diverse lineage of amniotes that survived two mass extinction events. We use time calibrated phylogeny and discrete character data to assess macroevolutionary patterns. The two are coupled through the early history of therocephalians, including a radiation following the late Guadalupian extinction. Diversity becomes decoupled from disparity across the end-Permian mass extinction. The number of species decreases throughout the Early Triassic and never recovers. However, while disparity briefly decreases across the extinction boundary, it recovers and remains high until the Middle Triassic.

Age and pattern of the southern high-latitude continental end-Permian extinction constrained by multiproxy analysis

Past studies of the end-Permian extinction (EPE), the largest biotic crisis of the Phanerozoic, have not resolved the timing of events in southern high-latitudes. Here we use palynology coupled with high-precision CA-ID-TIMS dating of euhedral zircons from continental sequences of the Sydney Basin, Australia, to show that the collapse of the austral Permian Glossopteris flora occurred prior to 252.3 Ma (~370 kyrs before the main marine extinction). Weathering proxies indicate that floristic changes occurred during a brief climate perturbation in a regional alluvial landscape that otherwise experienced insubstantial change in fluvial style, insignificant reorganization of the depositional surface, and no abrupt aridification. Palaeoclimate modelling suggests a moderate shift to warmer summer temperatures and amplified seasonality in temperature across the EPE, and warmer and wetter conditions for all seasons into the Early Triassic. The terrestrial EPE and a succeeding peak in Ni concentration in the Sydney Basin correlate, respectively, to the onset of the primary extrusive and intrusive phases of the Siberian Traps Large Igneous Province.

Contrasting responses of functional diversity to major losses in taxonomic diversity

Taxonomic diversity of benthic marine invertebrate shelf species declines at present by nearly an order of magnitude from the tropics to the poles in each hemisphere along the latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG), most steeply along the western Pacific where shallow-sea diversity is at its tropical maximum. In the Bivalvia, a model system for macroevolution and macroecology, this taxonomic trend is accompanied by a decline in the number of functional groups and an increase in the evenness of taxa distributed among those groups, with maximum functional evenness (FE) in polar waters of both hemispheres. In contrast, analyses of this model system across the two era-defining events of the Phanerozoic, the Permian-Triassic and Cretaceous-Paleogene mass extinctions, show only minor declines in functional richness despite high extinction intensities, resulting in a rise in FE owing to the persistence of functional groups. We hypothesize that the spatial decline of taxonomic diversity and increase in FE along the present-day LDG primarily reflect diversity-dependent factors, whereas retention of almost all functional groups through the two mass extinctions suggests the operation of diversity-independent factors. Comparative analyses of different aspects of biodiversity thus reveal strongly contrasting biological consequences of similarly severe declines in taxonomic diversity and can help predict the consequences for functional diversity among different drivers of past, present, and future biodiversity loss.

Estimates of the magnitudes of major marine mass extinctions in earth history

Procedures introduced here make it possible, first, to show that background (piecemeal) extinction is recorded throughout geologic stages and substages (not all extinction has occurred suddenly at the ends of such intervals); second, to separate out background extinction from mass extinction for a major crisis in earth history; and third, to correct for clustering of extinctions when using the rarefaction method to estimate the percentage of species lost in a mass extinction. Also presented here is a method for estimating the magnitude of the Signor-Lipps effect, which is the incorrect assignment of extinctions that occurred during a crisis to an interval preceding the crisis because of the incompleteness of the fossil record. Estimates for the magnitudes of mass extinctions presented here are in most cases lower than those previously published. They indicate that only ∼81% of marine species died out in the great terminal Permian crisis, whereas levels of 90-96% have frequently been quoted in the literature. Calculations of the latter numbers were incorrectly based on combined data for the Middle and Late Permian mass extinctions. About 90 orders and more than 220 families of marine animals survived the terminal Permian crisis, and they embodied an enormous amount of morphological, physiological, and ecological diversity. Life did not nearly disappear at the end of the Permian, as has often been claimed.

When and how did the terrestrial mid-Permian mass extinction occur? Evidence from the tetrapod record of the Karoo Basin, South Africa

A mid-Permian (Guadalupian epoch) extinction event at approximately 260 Ma has been mooted for two decades. This is based primarily on invertebrate biostratigraphy of Guadalupian-Lopingian marine carbonate platforms in southern China, which are temporally constrained by correlation to the associated Emeishan Large Igneous Province (LIP). Despite attempts to identify a similar biodiversity crisis in the terrestrial realm, the low resolution of mid-Permian tetrapod biostratigraphy and a lack of robust geochronological constraints have until now hampered both the correlation and quantification of terrestrial extinctions. Here we present an extensive compilation of tetrapod-stratigraphic data analysed by the constrained optimization (CONOP) algorithm that reveals a significant extinction event among tetrapods within the lower Beaufort Group of the Karoo Basin, South Africa, in the latest Capitanian. Our fossil dataset reveals a 74-80% loss of generic richness between the upper Tapinocephalus Assemblage Zone (AZ) and the mid-Pristerognathus AZ that is temporally constrained by a U-Pb zircon date (CA-TIMS method) of 260.259 ± 0.081 Ma from a tuff near the top of the Tapinocephalus AZ. This strengthens the biochronology of the Permian Beaufort Group and supports the existence of a mid-Permian mass extinction event on land near the end of the Guadalupian. Our results permit a temporal association between the extinction of dinocephalian therapsids and the LIP volcanism at Emeishan, as well as the marine end-Guadalupian extinctions.

Permian-Triassic Osteichthyes (bony fishes): diversity dynamics and body size evolution

The Permian and Triassic were key time intervals in the history of life on Earth. Both periods are marked by a series of biotic crises including the most catastrophic of such events, the end-Permian mass extinction, which eventually led to a major turnover from typical Palaeozoic faunas and floras to those that are emblematic for the Mesozoic and Cenozoic. Here we review patterns in Permian-Triassic bony fishes, a group whose evolutionary dynamics are understudied. Based on data from primary literature, we analyse changes in their taxonomic diversity and body size (as a proxy for trophic position) and explore their response to Permian-Triassic events. Diversity and body size are investigated separately for different groups of Osteichthyes (Dipnoi, Actinistia, 'Palaeopterygii', 'Subholostei', Holostei, Teleosteomorpha), within the marine and freshwater realms and on a global scale (total diversity) as well as across palaeolatitudinal belts. Diversity is also measured for different palaeogeographical provinces. Our results suggest a general trend from low osteichthyan diversity in the Permian to higher levels in the Triassic. Diversity dynamics in the Permian are marked by a decline in freshwater taxa during the Cisuralian. An extinction event during the end-Guadalupian crisis is not evident from our data, but 'palaeopterygians' experienced a significant body size increase across the Guadalupian-Lopingian boundary and these fishes upheld their position as large, top predators from the Late Permian to the Late Triassic. Elevated turnover rates are documented at the Permian-Triassic boundary, and two distinct diversification events are noted in the wake of this biotic crisis, a first one during the Early Triassic (dipnoans, actinistians, 'palaeopterygians', 'subholosteans') and a second one during the Middle Triassic ('subholosteans', neopterygians). The origination of new, small taxa predominantly among these groups during the Middle Triassic event caused a significant reduction in osteichthyan body size. Neopterygii, the clade that encompasses the vast majority of extant fishes, underwent another diversification phase in the Late Triassic. The Triassic radiation of Osteichthyes, predominantly of Actinopterygii, which only occurred after severe extinctions among Chondrichthyes during the Middle-Late Permian, resulted in a profound change within global fish communities, from chondrichthyan-rich faunas of the Permo-Carboniferous to typical Mesozoic and Cenozoic associations dominated by actinopterygians. This turnover was not sudden but followed a stepwise pattern, with leaps during extinction events.

Microbes and mass extinctions: paleoenvironmental distribution of microbialites during times of biotic crisis

Widespread development of microbialites characterizes the substrate and ecological response during the aftermath of two of the 'big five' mass extinctions of the Phanerozoic. This study reviews the microbial response recorded by macroscopic microbial structures to these events to examine how extinction mechanism may be linked to the style of microbialite development. Two main styles of response are recognized: (i) the expansion of microbialites into environments not previously occupied during the pre-extinction interval and (ii) increases in microbialite abundance and attainment of ecological dominance within environments occupied prior to the extinction. The Late Devonian biotic crisis contributed toward the decimation of platform margin reef taxa and was followed by increases in microbialite abundance in Famennian and earliest Carboniferous platform interior, margin, and slope settings. The end-Permian event records the suppression of infaunal activity and an elimination of metazoan-dominated reefs. The aftermath of this mass extinction is characterized by the expansion of microbialites into new environments including offshore and nearshore ramp, platform interior, and slope settings. The mass extinctions at the end of the Triassic and Cretaceous have not yet been associated with a macroscopic microbial response, although one has been suggested for the end-Ordovician event. The case for microbialites behaving as 'disaster forms' in the aftermath of mass extinctions accurately describes the response following the Late Devonian and end-Permian events, and this may be because each is marked by the reduction of reef communities in addition to a suppression of bioturbation related to the development of shallow-water anoxia.

Delayed recovery of non-marine tetrapods after the end-Permian mass extinction tracks global carbon cycle

During the end-Permian mass extinction, marine ecosystems suffered a major drop in diversity, which was maintained throughout the Early Triassic until delayed recovery during the Middle Triassic. This depressed diversity in the Early Triassic correlates with multiple major perturbations to the global carbon cycle, interpreted as either intrinsic ecosystem or external palaeoenvironmental effects. In contrast, the terrestrial record of extinction and recovery is less clear; the effects and magnitude of the end-Permian extinction on non-marine vertebrates are particularly controversial. We use specimen-level data from southern Africa and Russia to investigate the palaeodiversity dynamics of non-marine tetrapods across the Permo-Triassic boundary by analysing sample-standardized generic richness, evenness and relative abundance. In addition, we investigate the potential effects of sampling, geological and taxonomic biases on these data. Our analyses demonstrate that non-marine tetrapods were severely affected by the end-Permian mass extinction, and that these assemblages did not begin to recover until the Middle Triassic. These data are congruent with those from land plants and marine invertebrates. Furthermore, they are consistent with the idea that unstable low-diversity post-extinction ecosystems were subject to boom-bust cycles, reflected in multiple Early Triassic perturbations of the carbon cycle.

Development of lower Triassic wrinkle structures: implications for the search for life on other planets

Wrinkle structures are microbially mediated sedimentary structures that are a common feature of Proterozoic and earliest Phanerozoic siliciclastic seafloors on Earth and occur only rarely in post-Cambrian strata. These macroscopic microbially induced sedimentary structures are readily identifiable at the outcrop scale, and their recognition on other planetary bodies by landed missions may suggest the presence of past microbial life. Wrinkle structures of the Lower Triassic (Spathian) Virgin Limestone Member of the Moenkopi Formation in the western United States record an occurrence of widespread microbialite formation in the wake of the end-Permian mass extinction, the largest biotic crisis of the Phanerozoic. Wrinkle structures occur on proximal sandy tempestites deposited within the offshore transition. Storm layers appear to have been rapidly colonized by microbial mats and were subsequently buried by mud during fair-weather conditions. Wrinkle structures exhibit flat-topped crests and sinuous troughs, with associated mica grains oriented parallel to bedding, suggestive of trapping and binding activity. Although Lower Triassic wrinkle structures postdate the widespread occurrence of these features during the Proterozoic and Cambrian, they exhibit many of the same characteristics and environmental trends, which suggests a conservation of microbial formational and preservational processes in subtidal siliciclastic settings on Earth from the Precambrian into the Phanerozoic. In the search for extraterrestrial life, it may be these conservative characteristics that prove to be the most useful and robust for recognizing microbial features on other planetary bodies, and may add to an ever-growing foundation of knowledge for directing future explorations aimed at seeking out macroscopic microbial signatures.

Selective press extinctions, but not random pulse extinctions, cause delayed ecological recovery in communities of digital organisms

A key issue concerning recovery from mass extinctions is how extinction and diversification mechanisms affect the recovery process. We evolved communities of digital organisms, subjecting them to instantaneous "pulse" extinctions, choosing survivors at random, or to prolonged "pulse" extinctions involving a period of low resource availability. Functional activity at low trophic levels recovered faster than at higher levels, with the most extensive delays seen at the top level. Postpress communities generally did not fully recover functional activity in the allotted time, which equaled that of their original diversification. We measured recovery of phenotypic diversity, observing considerable variation in outcomes. Communities subjected to pulse extinctions recovered functional activity and phenotypic diversity substantially faster than when subjected to press extinctions. Follow-up experiments tested whether organisms with shorter generation times and low functional activity contributed to delayed recovery after press extinctions. The results indicate that adaptation during the press episode degraded the organisms' ability to re-evolve preextinction functionality. There are interesting parallels with patterns from the paleontological record. We suggest that some delayed recoveries from mass extinction may reflect the need to both re-evolve biological functions and reconstruct ecological interactions lost during the extinction. Adaptation to conditions during an extended disturbance may hinder subsequent recovery.

Recovery from the most profound mass extinction of all time

The end-Permian mass extinction, 251 million years (Myr) ago, was the most devastating ecological event of all time, and it was exacerbated by two earlier events at the beginning and end of the Guadalupian, 270 and 260 Myr ago. Ecosystems were destroyed worldwide, communities were restructured and organisms were left struggling to recover. Disaster taxa, such as Lystrosaurus, insinuated themselves into almost every corner of the sparsely populated landscape in the earliest Triassic, and a quick taxonomic recovery apparently occurred on a global scale. However, close study of ecosystem evolution shows that true ecological recovery was slower. After the end-Guadalupian event, faunas began rebuilding complex trophic structures and refilling guilds, but were hit again by the end-Permian event. Taxonomic diversity at the alpha (community) level did not recover to pre-extinction levels; it reached only a low plateau after each pulse and continued low into the Late Triassic. Our data showed that though there was an initial rise in cosmopolitanism after the extinction pulses, large drops subsequently occurred and, counter-intuitively, a surprisingly low level of cosmopolitanism was sustained through the Early and Middle Triassic.

Rapid sea-level change in the Late Guadalupian (Permian) on the Tethyan side of South China: litho- and biostratigraphy of the Chaotian section in Sichuan

The Capitanian (Late Guadalupian) Maokou Formation at Chaotian in northern Sichuan, South China, is composed mainly of shallow marine shelf carbonates deposited on the Tethyan side of South China. By detailed field mapping and scientific drilling, we newly found out unique fossil assemblages and a sharp lithologic change in the upper part of the Maokou Formation. The main part of the Maokou Formation (over 130 m thick) is composed of algal packstone with Wordian-Capitanian large-tested fusulines, rugose corals and other sessile benthos, whereas the Uppermost Member (13 m thick) is composed of black limy mudstone/chert with Capitanian offshore biota (ammonoids, radiolarians, and conodonts). The topmost Capitanian conodont zones are missing; however, the Maokou Formation is disconformably overlain by 260+/-4 Ma volcanic ash (Wangpo bed) and the Early Lopingian Wujiaping Formation with plant-bearing coaly mudstone and shallow marine carbonates (packstone). The newly identified facies change indicates that northern Sichuan has experienced rapid sea-level changes in the late Guadalupian, i.e., first a transgression in the mid-Capitanian and then a regression across the Guadalupian-Lopingian boundary. As the end-Guadalupian is characterized by a global regression, such a volatile sea-level fluctuation, in particular the sea-level rise, is unique to the Tethyan side of South China. The newly recognized relatively deep-water late Guadalupian sequence adds new paleo-environmental information and further provides a paleotectonic interpretation of the low-latitude eastern Tethyan margin immediately before the end-Guadalupian mass extinction.

Prolonged Permian Triassic ecological crisis recorded by molluscan dominance in Late Permian offshore assemblages

The end-Permian mass extinction was the largest biotic crisis in the history of animal life, eliminating as many as 95% of all species and dramatically altering the ecological structure of marine communities. Although the causes of this pronounced ecosystem shift have been widely debated, the broad consensus based on inferences from global taxonomic diversity patterns suggests that the shift from abundant brachiopods to dominant molluscs was abrupt and largely driven by the catastrophic effects of the end-Permian mass extinction. Here we analyze relative abundance counts of >33,000 fossil individuals from 24 silicified Middle and Late Permian paleocommunities, documenting a substantial ecological shift to numerical dominance by molluscs in the Late Permian, before the major taxonomic shift at the end-Permian mass extinction. This ecological change was coincident with the development of fluctuating anoxic conditions in deep marine basins, suggesting that numerical dominance by more tolerant molluscs may have been driven by variably stressful environmental conditions. Recognition of substantial ecological deterioration in the Late Permian also implies that the end-Permian extinction was the climax of a protracted environmental crisis. Although the Late Permian shift to molluscan dominance was a pronounced ecological change, quantitative counts of 847 Carboniferous-Cretaceous collections from the Paleobiology Database indicate that it was only the first stage in a stepwise transition that culminated with the final shift to molluscan dominance in the Late Jurassic. Therefore, the ecological transition from brachiopods to bivalves was more protracted and complex than their simple Permian-Triassic switch in diversity.

The effect of geographic range on extinction risk during background and mass extinction

Wide geographic range is generally thought to buffer taxa against extinction, but the strength of this effect has not been investigated for the great majority of the fossil record. Although the majority of genus extinctions have occurred between major mass extinctions, little is known about extinction selectivity regimes during these "background" intervals. Consequently, the question of whether selectivity regimes differ between background and mass extinctions is largely unresolved. Using logistic regression, we evaluated the selectivity of genus survivorship with respect to geographic range by using a global database of fossil benthic marine invertebrates spanning the Cambrian through the Neogene periods, an interval of approximately 500 My. Our results show that wide geographic range has been significantly and positively associated with survivorship for the great majority of Phanerozoic time. Moreover, the significant association between geographic range and survivorship remains after controlling for differences in species richness and abundance among genera. However, mass extinctions and several second-order extinction events exhibit less geographic range selectivity than predicted by range alone. Widespread environmental disturbance can explain the reduced association between geographic range and extinction risk by simultaneously affecting genera with similar ecological and physiological characteristics on global scales. Although factors other than geographic range have certainly affected extinction risk during many intervals, geographic range is likely the most consistently significant predictor of extinction risk in the marine fossil record.

Guadalupian (Middle Permian) giant bivalve Alatoconchidae from a mid-Panthalassan paleo-atoll complex in Kyushu, Japan: A unique community associated with Tethyan fusulines and corals

Unique new fossil assemblages containing the large bivalve family Alatoconchidae are recorded from the Guadalupian (Middle Permian) shallow marine limestone in Kamura, Kyushu. The large bivalves occur in the Neoschwagerina Zone and Lepidolina Zone. This discovery establishes that the biostratigraphic range of the family Alatoconchidae extends up to the top of the Lepidolina Zone (upper Capitanian of upper Guadalupian) i.e., to the end-Guadalupian extinction level. The largest Alatoconchidae in Kamura occurs in the Neoschwagerina Zone, the size of which is up to 50 cm long and 5 cm thick. Although details are still unknown, their morphology with a wing-like side projection of their valves appears very similar to that of Alatoconchidae that includes the well-known genus Shikamaia Ozaki. The bivalve-bearing Iwato Formation was derived from a mid-oceanic shallow marine carbonate build-up formed on a mid-oceanic paleo-seamount. The close association among the Alatoconchidae, typical Tethyan fusulines (Verbeekinidae) and rugose corals (Waagenophyllidae), plus their common extinction pattern suggests that the Alatoconchidae flourished in warm, shallow (photic) marine environments in low latitude areas in Panthalassa as well as Tethys. The extra-large size and double-layered shell with a translucent outer layer composed of prismatic calcite suggests that these bivalves may have hosted abundant photosynthetic algal symbionts to support their large-body metabolism.

Morphological Disparity of Ammonoids and the Mark of Permian Mass Extinctions

The taxonomic diversity of ammonoids, in terms of the number of taxa preserved, provides an incomplete picture of the extinction pattern during the Permian because of a strongly biased fossil record. The analysis of morphological disparity (the variety of shell shapes) is a powerful complementary tool for testing hypotheses about the selectivity of extinction and permits the recognition of three distinct patterns. First, a trend of decreasing disparity, ranging for about 30 million years, led to a minimum disparity immediately before the Permian-Triassic boundary. Second, the strongly selective Capitanian crisis fits a model of background extinction driven by standard environmental changes. Third, the end-Permian mass extinction operated as a random, nonselective sorting of morphologies, which is consistent with a catastrophic cause.

Age and timing of the Permian mass extinctions: U/Pb dating of closed-system zircons

The age and timing of the Permian-Triassic mass extinction have been difficult to determine because zircon populations from the type sections are typically affected by pervasive lead loss and contamination by indistinguishable older xenocrysts. Zircons from nine ash beds within the Shangsi and Meishan sections (China), pretreated by annealing followed by partial attack with hydrofluoric acid, result in suites of consistent and concordant uranium/lead (U/Pb) ages, eliminating the effects of lead loss. The U/Pb age of the main pulse of the extinction is 252.6 +/- 0.2 million years, synchronous with the Siberian flood volcanism, and it occurred within the quoted uncertainty.

Increased Longevities of Post-Paleozoic Marine Genera After Mass Extinctions

Cohorts of marine taxa that originated during recoveries from mass extinctions were commonly more widespread spatially than those originating at other times. Coupled with the recognition of a correlation between the geographic ranges and temporal longevities of marine taxa, this observation predicts that recovery taxa were unusually long-lived geologically. We analyzed this possibility by assessing the longevities of marine genus cohorts that originated in successive substages throughout the Phanerozoic. Results confirm that several mass extinction recovery cohorts were significantly longer lived than other cohorts, but this effect was limited to the post-Paleozoic, suggesting differences in the dynamics of Paleozoic versus post-Paleozoic diversification.

Comparing the evidence relevant to impact and flood basalt at times of major mass extinctions

The five major mass extinctions identified in 1982 by Raup and Sepkoski have expanded to six, with the suggestion that the Permian-Triassic extinction was a double event. Is there a general explanation for great mass extinctions, or can they result from different triggers, or even from internal system instabilities? The two most-discussed candidates for a general extinction mechanism are impacts and flood-basalt eruptions. A compilation of evidence for impact at the times of mass extinctions shows that this cause is abundantly confirmed in the case of the Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction and the late Eocene, which is a time of minor and gradual extinction, but little or no evidence connects other major extinctions to impact. On the other hand, there is a remarkable time correlation between flood basalts and four major extinctions, but no other evidence that flood basalts cause mass extinctions. The evidence for an impact-extinction linkage is strikingly different from that for a connection between flood basalts and extinctions. Flood basalts cover larger areas than craters and their associated thick ejecta blankets, which are thus less likely to be found. Impacts distribute proxies globally at instantaneous time horizons, whereas flood-basalt events are extended in time, and no remote proxies have been recognized. Many global killing mechanisms have been proposed in the case of impacts, but few have been suggested for flood basalts. It is possible that flood basalts are triggered by impact, but it is not obvious how impacts could result from anything other than chance. The hypothesis that impacts are the general cause of mass extinctions has not received supporting evidence, but has not been falsified. The hypothesis that flood basalts are the general cause of mass extinctions is supported by evidence from timing, but is not susceptible to falsification. Other candidates for general extinction causes, especially sea-level changes and system instabilities, would require separate treatment. The question is still very much open.

Survival without recovery after mass extinctions

Because many survivors of mass extinctions do not participate in postrecovery diversifications, and therefore fall into a pattern that can be termed "Dead Clade Walking" (DCW), the effects of mass extinctions extend beyond the losses observed during the event itself. Analyses at two taxonomic levels provide a first-order test of the prevalence of DCWs by using simple and very conservative operational criteria. For four of the Big Five mass extinctions of the Phanerozoic, the marine genera that survived the extinction suffered approximately 10-20% attrition in the immediately following geologic stage that was significantly greater than the losses sustained in preextinction stages. The stages immediately following the three Paleozoic mass extinctions also account for 17% of all order-level losses in marine invertebrates over that interval, which is, again, significantly greater than that seen for the other stratigraphic stages (no orders are lost immediately after the end-Triassic or end-Cretaceous mass extinctions). DCWs are not evenly distributed among four regional molluscan time-series following the end-Cretaceous extinction, demonstrating the importance of spatial patterns in recovery dynamics. Although biotic interactions have been invoked to explain the differential postextinction success of clades, such hypotheses must be tested against alternatives that include stochastic processes in low-diversity lineages-which is evidently not a general explanation for the ordinal DCW patterns, because postextinction fates are not related to the size of extinction bottlenecks in Paleozoic orders-and ongoing physical environmental changes.

Carbon dioxide and climate over the past 300 Myr

The link between atmospheric CO(2) levels and global warming is an axiom of current public policy, and is well supported by physicochemical experiments, by comparative planetary climatology and by geochemical modelling. Geological tests of this idea seek to compare proxies of past atmospheric CO(2) with other proxies of palaeotemperature. For at least the past 300 Myr, there is a remarkably high temporal correlation between peaks of atmospheric CO(2), revealed by study of stomatal indices of fossil leaves of Ginkgo, Lepidopteris, Tatarina and Rhachiphyllum, and palaeotemperature maxima, revealed by oxygen isotopic (delta(18)O) composition of marine biogenic carbonate. Large and growing databases on these proxy indicators support the idea that atmospheric CO(2) and temperature are coupled. In contrast, CO(2)-temperature uncoupling has been proposed from geological time-series of carbon isotopic composition of palaeosols and of marine phytoplankton compared with foraminifera, which fail to indicate high CO(2) at known times of high palaeotemperature. Failure of carbon isotopic palaeobarometers may be due to episodic release of CH(4), which has an unusually light isotopic value (down to -110 per thousand, and typically -60 per thousand delta(13)C) and which oxidizes rapidly (within 7-24 yr) to isotopically light CO(2). Past CO(2) highs (above 2000 ppmv) were not only times of catastrophic release of CH(4) from clathrates, but of asteroid and comet impacts, flood basalt eruptions and mass extinctions. The primary reason for iterative return to low CO(2) was carbon consumption by hydrolytic weathering and photosynthesis, perhaps stimulated by mountain uplift and changing patterns of oceanic thermohaline circulation. Sequestration of carbon was promoted in the long term by such evolutionary innovations as the lignin of forests and the sod of grasslands, which accelerated physicochemical weathering and delivery of nutrients to fuel oceanic productivity and carbon burial.

A new Triassic procolophonoid reptile and its implications for procolophonoid survivorship during the Permo-Triassic extinction event

A reptile specimen from the Lystrosaurus Assemblage Zone of the Beaufort Group, lowermost Triassic of South Africa, represents a new procolophonoid parareptile. Sauropareion anoplus gen. et sp. nov. is identified as the sister taxon of Procolophonidae in a phylogenetic analysis of procolophonoids. Stratigraphic calibration of the most parsimonious tree reveals that four of the six procolophonoid lineages originating in the Permian Period extended into the succeeding Triassic Period. This relatively high taxic survivorship (67%) across the Permo-Triassic boundary strongly suggests that procolophonoids were little if at all affected by the mass extinction event that punctuated the end of the Palaeozoic Era (ca. 251 million years ago).

Altered river morphology in south africa related to the permian-triassic extinction

The Permian-Triassic transition in the Karoo Basin of South Africa was characterized by a rapid and apparently basin-wide change from meandering to braided river systems, as evidenced by preserved sedimentary facies. This radical changeover in river morphology is consistent with geomorphic consequences stemming from a rapid and major die-off of rooted plant life in the basin. Evidence from correlative nonmarine strata elsewhere in the world containing fluvial Permian-Triassic boundary sections suggests that a catastrophic terrestrial die-off of vegetation was a global event, producing a marked increase in sediment yield as well as contributing to the global delta(13)C excursion across the Permian-Triassic boundary.

Extinction and the loss of evolutionary history

Extinction episodes, such as the anthropogenic one currently under way, result in a pruned tree of life. But what fraction of the underlying evolutionary history survives when k of n species in a taxon are lost? This is relevant both to how species loss has translated into a loss of evolutionary history and to assigning conservation priorities. Here it is shown that approximately 80 percent of the underlying tree of life can survive even when approximately 95 percent of species are lost, and that algorithms that maximize the amount of evolutionary history preserved are not much better than choosing the survivors at random. Given the political, economic, and social realities constraining conservation biology, these findings may be helpful.

A unified theory of impact crises and mass extinctions: quantitative tests

Several quantitative tests of a general hypothesis linking impacts of large asteroids and comets with mass extinctions of life are possible based on astronomical data, impact dynamics, and geological information. The waiting times of large-body impacts on the Earth derived from the flux of Earth-crossing asteroids and comets, and the estimated size of impacts capable of causing, large-scale environmental disasters, predict the impacts of objects > or = 5 km in diameter (> or = 10(7) Mt TNT equivalent) could be sufficient to explain the record of approximately 25 extinction pulses in the last 540 Myr, with the 5 recorded major mass extinctions related to impacts of the largest objects of > or = 10 km in diameter (> or = 10(8) Mt events). Smaller impacts (approximately 10(6) Mt), with significant regional environmental effects, could be responsible for the lesser boundaries in the geologic record. Tests of the "kill curve" relationship for impact-induced extinctions based on new data on extinction intensities, and several well-dated large impact craters, also suggest that major mass extinctions require large impacts, and that a step in the kill curve may exist at impacts that produce craters of approximately 100 km diameter, smaller impacts being capable of only relatively weak extinction pulses. Single impact craters less than approximately 60 km in diameter should not be associated with detectable global extinction pulses (although they may explain stage and zone boundaries marked by lesser faunal turnover), but multiple impacts in that size range may produce significant stepped extinction pulses. Statistical tests of the last occurrences of species at mass-extinction boundaries are generally consistent with predictions for abrupt or stepped extinctions, and several boundaries are known to show "catastrophic" signatures of environmental disasters and biomass crash, impoverished postextinction fauna and flora dominated by stress-tolerant and opportunistic species, and gradual ecological recovery and radiation of new taxa. Isotopic and other geochemical signatures are also generally consistent with the expected after-effects of catastrophic impacts. Seven of the recognized extinction pulses seem to be associated with concurrent (in some cases multiple) stratigraphic impact markers (e.g., layers with high iridium, shocked minerals, microtektites), and/or large, dated impact craters. Other less well-studied crisis intervals show elevated iridium, but well below that of the K/T spike, which might be explained by low-Ir impactors, ejecta blowoff, or sedimentary reworking and dilution of impact signatures. The best explanation for a possible periodic component of approximately 30 Myr in mass extinctions and clusters of impacts is the pulselike modulation of the comet flux associated with the solar system's periodic passage through the plane of the Milky Way Galaxy. The quantitative agreement between paleontologic and astronomical data suggests an important underlying unification of the processes involved.

Permo-Triassic Boundary Superanoxia and Stratified Superocean: Records from Lost Deep Sea

Pelagic cherts of Japan and British Columbia, Canada, recorded a long-term and worldwide deep-sea anoxic (oxygen-depleted) event across the Permo-Triassic (or Paleozoic and Mesozoic) boundary (251 ± 2 million years ago). The symmetry in lithostratigraphy and redox condition of the boundary sections suggest that the superocean Panthalassa became totally stratified for nearly 20 million years across the boundary. The timing of onset, climax, and termination of the oceanic stratification correspond to global biotic events including the end-Guadalupian decline, the end-Permian extinction, and mid-Triassic recovery.

Oceanic Anoxia and the End Permian Mass Extinction

Data on rocks from Spitsbergen and the equatorial sections of Italy and Slovenia indicate that the world's oceans became anoxic at both low and high paleolatitudes in the Late Permian. Such conditions may have been responsible for the mass extinction at this time. This event affected a wide range of shelf depths and extended into shallow water well above the storm wave base.

The terminal Paleozoic fungal event: evidence of terrestrial ecosystem destabilization and collapse

Because of its prominent role in global biomass storage, land vegetation is the most obvious biota to be investigated for records of dramatic ecologic crisis in Earth history. There is accumulating evidence that, throughout the world, sedimentary organic matter preserved in latest Permian deposits is characterized by unparalleled abundances of fungal remains, irrespective of depositional environment (marine, lacustrine, fluviatile), floral provinciality, and climatic zonation. This fungal event can be considered to reflect excessive dieback of arboreous vegetation, effecting destabilization and subsequent collapse of terrestrial ecosystems with concomitant loss of standing biomass. Such a scenario is in harmony with predictions that the Permian-Triassic ecologic crisis was triggered by the effects of severe changes in atmospheric chemistry arising from the rapid eruption of the Siberian Traps flood basalts.

Synchrony and Causal Relations Between Permian-Triassic Boundary Crises and Siberian Flood Volcanism

The Permian-Triassic boundary records the most severe mass extinctions in Earth's history. Siberian flood volcanism, the most profuse known such subaerial event, produced 2 million to 3 million cubic kilometers of volcanic ejecta in approximately 1 million years or less. Analysis of (40)Ar/(39)Ar data from two tuffs in southern China yielded a date of 250.0 +/- 0.2 million years ago for the Permian-Triassic boundary, which is comparable to the inception of main stage Siberian flood volcanism at 250.0 +/- 0.3 million years ago. Volcanogenic sulfate aerosols and the dynamic effects of the Siberian plume likely contributed to environmental extrema that led to the mass extinctions.