16 degrees C rapid temperature variation in central greenland 70,000 years Ago

Appendicular skeletal morphology of North American Martes reflect independent modes of evolution in conjunction with Pleistocene glacial cycles

Pleistocene glacial cycles are thought to have driven ecological niche shifts, including novel niche formation. North American pine martens, Martes americana and M. caurina, are exemplar taxa thought to have diverged molecularly and morphologically during Pleistocene glaciation. Previous research found correlations between Martes limb morphology with biome and climate, suggesting that appendicular evolution may have occurred via adaptation to selective pressures imposed by novel and shifting habitats. Such variation can also be achieved through non-adaptive means such as genetic drift. Here, we evaluate whether regional genetic differences reflect limb morphology differences among populations of M. americana and M. caurina by analyzing evolutionary tempo and mode of six limb elements. Our comparative phylogenetic models indicate that genetic structure predicts limb shape better than size. Marten limb size has low phylogenetic signal, and the best supported model of evolution is punctuational (kappa), with morphological and genetic divergence occurring simultaneously. Disparity through time analysis suggests that the tempo of limb evolution in Martes tracks Pleistocene glacial cycles, such that limb size may be responding to shifting climates rather than population genetic structure. Contrarily, we find that limb shape is strongly tied to genetic relationships, with high phylogenetic signal and a lambda mode of evolution. Overall, this pattern of limb size and shape variation may be the result of geographic isolation during Pleistocene glacial advance, while declines in disparity suggest hybridization during interglacial periods. Future inclusion of extinct populations of Martes, which were more morphologically and ecologically diverse, may further clarify Martes phenotypic evolution.

Synchronous timing of abrupt climate changes during the last glacial period

Abrupt climate changes during the last glacial period have been detected in a global array of palaeoclimate records, but our understanding of their absolute timing and regional synchrony is incomplete. Our compilation of 63 published, independently dated speleothem records shows that abrupt warmings in Greenland were associated with synchronous climate changes across the Asian Monsoon, South American Monsoon, and European-Mediterranean regions that occurred within decades. Together with the demonstration of bipolar synchrony in atmospheric response, this provides independent evidence of synchronous high-latitude-to-tropical coupling of climate changes during these abrupt warmings. Our results provide a globally coherent framework with which to validate model simulations of abrupt climate change and to constrain ice-core chronologies.

Reconciling glacial Antarctic water stable isotopes with ice sheet topography and the isotopic paleothermometer

Stable water isotope records from Antarctica are key for our understanding of Quaternary climate variations. However, the exact quantitative interpretation of these important climate proxy records in terms of surface temperature, ice sheet height and other climatic changes is still a matter of debate. Here we report results obtained with an atmospheric general circulation model equipped with water isotopes, run at a high-spatial horizontal resolution of one-by-one degree. Comparing different glacial maximum ice sheet reconstructions, a best model data match is achieved for the PMIP3 reconstruction. Reduced West Antarctic elevation changes between 400 and 800 m lead to further improved agreement with ice core data. Our modern and glacial climate simulations support the validity of the isotopic paleothermometer approach based on the use of present-day observations and reveal that a glacial ocean state as displayed in the GLAMAP reconstruction is suitable for capturing the observed glacial isotope changes in Antarctic ice cores.

Despite their importance, the accuracy of the quantitative interpretation of Antarctic ice core stable water isotope records remains a matter of debate. Here, the authors use an isotope-enabled atmospheric general circulation model to test and validate the isotopic paleothermometer approach.

The impacts of climate change on the annual cycles of birds

Organisms living today are descended from ancestors that experienced considerable climate change in the past. However, they are currently presented with many new, man-made challenges, including rapid climate change. Migration and reproduction of many avian species are controlled by endogenous mechanisms that have been under intense selection over time to ensure that arrival to and departure from breeding grounds is synchronized with moderate temperatures, peak food availability and availability of nesting sites. The timing of egg laying is determined, usually by both endogenous clocks and local factors, so that food availability is near optimal for raising young. Climate change is causing mismatches in food supplies, snow cover and other factors that could severely impact successful migration and reproduction of avian populations unless they are able to adjust to new conditions. Resident (non-migratory) birds also face challenges if precipitation and/or temperature patterns vary in ways that result in mismatches of food and breeding. Predictions that many existing climates will disappear and novel climates will appear in the future suggest that communities will be dramatically restructured by extinctions and changes in range distributions. Species that persist into future climates may be able to do so in part owing to the genetic heritage passed down from ancestors who survived climate changes in the past.

New measures of multimodality for the detection of a ghost stochastic resonance

Large-amplitude (10-15 K) millennial-duration warming events, the Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events, repeatedly occurred in the North Atlantic region during ice ages. So far, the trigger of these events is not known. To explain their recurrence pattern, a ghost stochastic resonance (GSR) scenario has been suggested, i.e., a dynamical scenario in which the events represent the subharmonic response to centennial-scale solar forcing plus noise. According to this hypothesis a multimodal phase distribution of the events is expected, which should be tested on the basis of climate records by means of time series analysis. A major obstacle in these tests, however, is the need of a statistical measure of regularity that can distinguish between a random occurrence of DO events and a GSR scenario. Here we construct and compare three new measures of phase multimodality. In a Monte Carlo simulation with a simple conceptual model of DO events we simulate probability distributions of the measures under both scenarios for realizations of only 11 DO events. Based on these distributions we find that our measures are able to distinguish between a random occurrence and a GSR scenario. We further apply our measures to analyze the recurrence pattern of the last 11 DO events in the North Greenland Ice Core Project deep ice core from Greenland.

Constraining past global tropospheric methane budgets with carbon and hydrogen isotope ratios in ice

Upon closer inspection, the classical view of the synchronous relationship between tropospheric methane mixing ratio and Greenland temperature observed in ice samples reveals clearly discernable variations in the magnitude of this response during the Late Pleistocene (<50kyr BP). During the Holocene this relationship appears to decouple, indicating that other factors have modulated the methane budget in the past 10kyr BP. The delta13CH4 and deltaD-CH4 of tropospheric methane recorded in ice samples provide a useful constraint on the palaeomethane budget estimations. Anticipated changes in palaeoenvironmental conditions are recorded as changes in the isotope signals of the methane precursors, which are then translated into past global delta13CH4 and deltaD-CH4 signatures. We present the first methane budgets for the late glacial period that are constrained by dual stable isotopes. The overall isotope variations indicate that the Younger Dryas (YD) and Preindustrial Holocene have methane that is 13C- and 2H-enriched, relative to Modern. The shift is small for delta13CH4 (approx. 1 per thousand) but greater for deltaD-CH4 (approx. 9 per thousand). The YD delta13CH4-deltaD-CH4 record shows a remarkable relationship between them from 12.15 to 11.52kyr BP. The corresponding C- and H-isotope mass balances possibly indicate fluctuating emissions of thermogenic gas. This delta13CH4-deltaD-CH4 relationship breaks down during the YD-Preboreal transition. In both age cases, catastrophic releases of hydrates with Archaeal isotope signatures can be ruled out. Thermogenic clathrate releases are possible during the YD period, but so are conventional natural gas seepages.

On-line systems for continuous water and gas isotope ratio measurements

New continuous on-line techniques for water and air extracted from ice cores are developed. Water isotope ratio determination on any of the water phases (water vapour, water, ice) is of great relevance in different research fields, such as climate and paleoclimate studies, geological surveys, and hydrological studies. The conventional techniques for water isotopes are available in different layouts but all of them are rather time-consuming. Here we report new fast on-line techniques that process water as well as ice samples. The analysis time is only approximately 5 min per sample which includes equilibration and processing. Measurement precision and accuracy are better than 0.1 per thousand and 1 per thousand for delta18O and deltaD, respectively, comparable to conventional techniques. The new on-line techniques are able to analyze a wide range of aqueous samples. This allows, for the first time, to make continuous isotope measurements on ice cores. Similarly, continuous and fast analysis of aqueous samples can be of great value for hydrological, geological and perhaps medical applications.Furthermore, a new technique for the on-line analysis of air isotopes extracted from ice cores is developed. This technique allows rapid analyses with high resolution of the main air components nitrogen, oxygen, and argon. Measurement precision is comparable to precisions obtained by conventional techniques. It is now possible to measure delta15N and delta18O(atm) over entire ice cores helping to synchronize chronologies, to assess gas age-ice age differences, and to calibrate the paleothermometry for rapid temperature changes. This new on-line air extraction and analyzing technique complements the water methods in an ideal way as it separates the air from the melt-water of an ice sample. The remaining water waste flux can directly be analyzed by the water methods.

Fetal programming: adaptive life-history tactics or making the best of a bad start?

Fetal programming is an ontogenetic phenomenon of increasing interest to human biologists. Because the downstream consequences of fetal programming have clear impacts on specific life-history traits (e.g., age at first reproduction and the general age-pattern of reproductive investments), a number of authors have raised the question of the adaptive significance of fetal programming. In this paper, I review in some detail several classical models in life-history theory and discuss their relative merits and weaknesses for human biology. I suggest that an adequate model of human life-history evolution must account for the highly structured nature of the human life cycle, with its late age at first reproduction, large degree of iteroparity, highly overlapping generations, and extensive, post-weaning parental investment. I further suggest that an understanding of stochastic demography is essential for answering the question of the adaptive significance of fetal programming, and specifically the finding of low birth weight on smaller adult body size and earlier age at first reproduction. Using a stage-structured stochastic population model, I show that the downstream consequences of early deprivation may be "making the best of a bad start" rather than an adaptation per se. When a high-investment strategy entails survival costs, the alternate strategy of early reproduction with relatively low investment may have higher fitness than trying to play the high-investment strategy and failing.

Strong hemispheric coupling of glacial climate through freshwater discharge and ocean circulation

The climate of the last glacial period was extremely variable, characterized by abrupt warming events in the Northern Hemisphere, accompanied by slower temperature changes in Antarctica and variations of global sea level. It is generally accepted that this millennial-scale climate variability was caused by abrupt changes in the ocean thermohaline circulation. Here we use a coupled ocean-atmosphere-sea ice model to show that freshwater discharge into the North Atlantic Ocean, in addition to a reduction of the thermohaline circulation, has a direct effect on Southern Ocean temperature. The related anomalous oceanic southward heat transport arises from a zonal density gradient in the subtropical North Atlantic caused by a fast wave-adjustment process. We present an extended and quantitative bipolar seesaw concept that explains the timing and amplitude of Greenland and Antarctic temperature changes, the slow changes in Antarctic temperature and its similarity to sea level, as well as a possible time lag of sea level with respect to Antarctic temperature during Marine Isotope Stage 3.

Indian Ocean climate and an absolute chronology over Dansgaard/Oeschger events 9 to 13

Oxygen-isotope ratios of a stalagmite from Socotra Island in the Indian Ocean provide a record of changes in monsoon precipitation and climate for the time period from 42 to 55 thousand years before the present. The pattern of precipitation bears a striking resemblance to the oxygen-isotope record from Greenland ice cores, with increased tropical precipitation associated with warm periods in the high northern latitudes. The largest change, at the onset of interstadial 12, occurred very rapidly, in about 25 years. The chronology of the events found in our record requires a reevaluation of previously published time scales for climate events during this period.

Continuous extraction of trapped air from bubble ice or water for on-line determination of isotope ratios

We describe a new continuous extraction system for trapped air from bubble ice or water for on-line determination of the isotopic composition of the main air components nitrogen and oxygen (delta15N, delta18O, and delta17O). Studies of the composition of air from bubbles trapped in polar ice are providing fundamental information about ancient atmospheric composition and, therefore, are an important tool to learn more about Earth's climate. The new system proved to work reliably for standard air admixed and subsequently removed from a water stream. The precision (1 SD) of standard measurements is approximately 0.04/1000 for delta15N, approximately 0.1/1000 for delta18O, and approximately 0.15/1000 for delta17O. Ice measurements with the new on-line system are promising. Continuous measurements of nitrogen as well as oxygen isotope ratios can be performed with a spatial resolution of approximately 3 cm and nearly the same precision as for the standards. However, the measured delta values of ice are generally lower, as compared to ice measured with conventional techniques, as a result of a time-dependent dissolution process of air in water associated with kinetic fractionation, which affects standard and sample differently. By modeling the dynamics of the this dissolution process, we found a reason for the lack of accuracy and propose an improvement of the system that will lead to a better accuracy of the ice measurements.

Timing of atmospheric CO2 and Antarctic temperature changes across termination III

The analysis of air bubbles from ice cores has yielded a precise record of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, but the timing of changes in these gases with respect to temperature is not accurately known because of uncertainty in the gas age-ice age difference. We have measured the isotopic composition of argon in air bubbles in the Vostok core during Termination III (approximately 240,000 years before the present). This record most likely reflects the temperature and accumulation change, although the mechanism remains unclear. The sequence of events during Termination III suggests that the CO2 increase lagged Antarctic deglacial warming by 800 +/- 200 years and preceded the Northern Hemisphere deglaciation.

Precise dating of Dansgaard-Oeschger climate oscillations in western Europe from stalagmite data

The signature of Dansgaard-Oeschger events--millennial-scale abrupt climate oscillations during the last glacial period--is well established in ice cores and marine records. But the effects of such events in continental settings are not as clear, and their absolute chronology is uncertain beyond the limit of (14)C dating and annual layer counting for marine records and ice cores, respectively. Here we present carbon and oxygen isotope records from a stalagmite collected in southwest France which have been precisely dated using 234U/230Th ratios. We find rapid climate oscillations coincident with the established Dansgaard-Oeschger events between 83,000 and 32,000 years ago in both isotope records. The oxygen isotope signature is similar to a record from Soreq cave, Israel, and deep-sea records, indicating the large spatial scale of the climate oscillations. The signal in the carbon isotopes gives evidence of drastic and rapid vegetation changes in western Europe, an important site in human cultural evolution. We also find evidence for a long phase of extremely cold climate in southwest France between 61.2 +/- 0.6 and 67.4 +/- 0.9 kyr ago.

Timing of millennial-scale climate change in Antarctica and Greenland during the last glacial period

A precise relative chronology for Greenland and West Antarctic paleotemperature is extended to 90,000 years ago, based on correlation of atmospheric methane records from the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 and Byrd ice cores. Over this period, the onset of seven major millennial-scale warmings in Antarctica preceded the onset of Greenland warmings by 1500 to 3000 years. In general, Antarctic temperatures increased gradually while Greenland temperatures were decreasing or constant, and the termination of Antarctic warming was apparently coincident with the onset of rapid warming in Greenland. This pattern provides further evidence for the operation of a "bipolar see-saw" in air temperatures and an oceanic teleconnection between the hemispheres on millennial time scales.