Climate change and the integrity of science

Study on the initial carbon quota allocation and spatial balance compensation strategy at the provincial level in China

With the official national unified carbon market launch on July 16, 2021, the allocation and trading of initial carbon quotas between regions will become the focus of research in the future. Based on a reasonable regional initial carbon quota allocation, introducing the concept of carbon ecological compensation and formulating differentiated emission reduction strategies according to the characteristics of different provinces can better guarantee the realization of China's carbon emission reduction goals. Based on this, this paper first analyzes the distribution effects under different distribution principles from the perspective of fairness and efficiency. Secondly, the Pareto optimal multi-objective particle swarm optimization (Pareto-MOPSO) algorithm is used to build the initial carbon quota allocation optimization configuration model to optimize the allocation results. The optimal initial carbon quota allocation scheme is determined through the comparative analysis of the allocation results. Finally, we explore the combination of carbon quota allocation and the concept of carbon ecological compensation and formulate the corresponding carbon compensation scheme. This study not only reduces the relative sense of exploitation of carbon quota allocation in different provinces but also contributes to the realization of a carbon peak in 2030 and carbon neutrality in 2060 (the "30.60" double carbon target).

Recent water-level fluctuations, future trends and their eco-environmental impacts on Lake Qinghai

The water level of Lake Qinghai, the largest lake on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, has increased continuously, at an average speed of 0.21 m per year since 2005, causing a rapid expansion of the lake area. We investigated the hydrological processes of Lake Qinghai and the surrounding watershed that have influenced water level and lake area from 1956 to 2019. Relationships among water level, climate change and human activities were also assessed. Water level and lake area were positively correlated with precipitation and runoff into the lake, and negatively correlated with evaporation. Climate change factors including precipitation and runoff were the primary causes of lake level change, whereas human activities, including variation in a human footprint index, land use, and grassland irrigation, were secondary factors. A time series model forecasted that from 2020 to 2050 water levels will increase further by 2.45 m. Although this increase in water level may have some benefits, such as reduced local desertification, the expansion of lake area will continue to flood low beaches, pasture lands, near shore infrastructure and roads, and impact tourism locations. However, continued water level rise may also have negative ecological effects, such as reduce habitat of seasonal birds and reduced water quality due to erosion and sediment resuspension in shallow nearshore lake areas. Local stakeholders, government authorities, and scientists should give greater attention to anticipated changes in water level, and further ecological studies and infrastructure adaptation measures should be implemented.

Research on carbon emission measurement and low-carbon path of regional industry

As industry is the world's leading carbon emitter, promoting industrial carbon reduction is of key significance to carbon peak and carbon neutrality. Using a data-driven method, based on the collection and processing of relevant data from statistical yearbooks and others, we analyze the efficiency and amount of carbon emission of each industrial sector after processing multi-dimensional data by the improved IPCC EF method of calculating carbon emissions. In addition, we adopt the LMDI decomposition method for data modeling to measure the contribution of energy efficiency, industrial structure, GDP per capita, and population size to carbon emission changes, to identify targets for industrial carbon reduction, and to propose a targeted optimization path for carbon emission. We show how the method is implemented by taking the statistics of Anhui Province from 2010 to 2019 as an example and advises on an optimization path for carbon emission in Anhui Province. This study is of both theoretical and practical significance as it provides theoretical and methodological support for the low-carbon development of the regional industry, and provides a reference for other countries and regions to explore the path of low-carbon and environment-friendly green transformation and upgrading.

Temperature Rise Increases the Bioavailability of Marine Synechococcus-Derived Dissolved Organic Matter

Synechococcus is one group of main primary producers and plays a key role in oceanic carbon fixation and transformation. To explore how the temperature rise affects the bioavailability of Synechococcus-derived dissolved organic matter (SOM) and whether this effect would be altered by the involvement of heterotrophic bacteria, we compared the optical and molecular properties of the SOM of axenic Synechococcus sp. PCC7002 culture (Syn) to that with associated heterotrophic bacteria (SynB) under 15, 18, and 21°C growth temperatures at exponential and decay growth phases. Our results showed that the temperature rise increased the bioavailability of the SOM of both Syn and SynB cultures by lowering the proportion of the hydrogen-poor and double-bond structure-rich humus-like components and highly unsaturated substances, as indicated by the increase of spectral slope ratio (S R ) and biological index (BIX) and decrease of humification index (HIX). Moreover, the involvement of heterotrophic bacteria modified the Synechococcus-derived SOM, together with its intracellular dissolved organic matter (DOM) excludes, lowering the SOM bioavailability. Our results indicated that the warming in climate change scenario may enhance the bioavailability of the Synechococcus-derived SOM although it may be tempered by the involvement of heterotrophic bacteria, providing an insight for preservation of the organic carbon pool in global oceans.

Scientific integrity issues in Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry: Improving research reproducibility, credibility, and transparency

High-profile reports of detrimental scientific practices leading to retractions in the scientific literature contribute to lack of trust in scientific experts. Although the bulk of these have been in the literature of other disciplines, environmental toxicology and chemistry are not free from problems. While we believe that egregious misconduct such as fraud, fabrication of data, or plagiarism is rare, scientific integrity is much broader than the absence of misconduct. We are more concerned with more commonly encountered and nuanced issues such as poor reliability and bias. We review a range of topics including conflicts of interests, competing interests, some particularly challenging situations, reproducibility, bias, and other attributes of ecotoxicological studies that enhance or detract from scientific credibility. Our vision of scientific integrity encourages a self-correcting culture that promotes scientific rigor, relevant reproducible research, transparency in competing interests, methods and results, and education. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2019;00:000-000. © 2019 SETAC.

Climate network percolation reveals the expansion and weakening of the tropical component under global warming

Global climate warming poses a significant challenge to humanity; it is associated with, e.g., rising sea level and declining Arctic sea ice. Increasing extreme events are also considered to be a result of climate warming, and they may have widespread and diverse effects on health, agriculture, economics, and political conflicts. Still, the detection and quantification of climate change, both in observations and climate models, constitute a main focus of the scientific community. Here, we develop an approach based on network and percolation frameworks to study the impacts of climate changes in the past decades using historical models and reanalysis records, and we analyze the expected upcoming impacts using various future global warming scenarios. We find an abrupt transition during the evolution of the climate network, indicating a consistent poleward expansion of the largest cluster that corresponds to the tropical area, as well as the weakening of the strength of links in the tropic. This is found both in the reanalysis data and in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) 21st century climate change simulations. The analysis is based on high-resolution surface (2 m) air temperature field records. We discuss the underlying mechanism for the observed expansion of the tropical cluster and associate it with changes in atmospheric circulation represented by the weakening and expansion of the Hadley cell. Our framework can also be useful for forecasting the extent of the tropical cluster to detect its influence on different areas in response to global warming.

Strategies of Phytophthora infestans adaptation to local UV radiation conditions

Expected global changes in environmental conditions underline the need for a better understanding of genetic variation in ecological traits and their strategies of adaptation to the stresses. In this study, evolutionary mechanisms and processes of UV adaptation in plant pathogens were investigated by combining statistical genetics, physiological assays, and common garden experiment approaches in an assessment of the potato late blight pathogen, Phytophthora infestans, sampled from various geographic locations in China. We found spatial divergence caused by diversifying selection in UV tolerance among P. infestans populations. Local UV radiation was the driving force of selection as indicated by a positive correlation between UV tolerance in P. infestans populations and the altitude of collection sites. Plasticity accounted for 68% of population variation while heritability was negligible, suggesting temporary changes in gene expression and/or enzymatic activity play a more important role than permanent modification of gene structure in the evolution of UV adaptation. This adaptation strategy may explain the lack of fitness penalty observed in genotypes with higher UV tolerance.

The Immoral Landscape? Scientists Are Associated with Violations of Morality

Do people think that scientists are bad people? Although surveys find that science is a highly respected profession, a growing discourse has emerged regarding how science is often judged negatively. We report ten studies (N = 2328) that investigated morality judgments of scientists and compared those with judgments of various control groups, including atheists. A persistent intuitive association between scientists and disturbing immoral conduct emerged for violations of the binding moral foundations, particularly when this pertained to violations of purity. However, there was no association in the context of the individualizing moral foundations related to fairness and care. Other evidence found that scientists were perceived as similar to others in their concerns with the individualizing moral foundations of fairness and care, yet as departing for all of the binding foundations of loyalty, authority, and purity. Furthermore, participants stereotyped scientists particularly as robot-like and lacking emotions, as well as valuing knowledge over morality and being potentially dangerous. The observed intuitive immorality associations are partially due to these explicit stereotypes but do not correlate with any perceived atheism. We conclude that scientists are perceived not as inherently immoral, but as capable of immoral conduct.

Information Warfare and New Organizational Landscapes: An Inquiry into the ExxonMobil–Greenpeace Dispute over Climate Change

A defining characteristic of the emergence of new organizational landscapes is that information is not just being used as a tool by organizations, as it is more usually understood, but also as a weapon in a ‘war of position’. As organizations seek to influence public perception over emotive issues such as climate change, conflict at the ideational level can give rise to information warfare campaigns. This concerns the creation and deployment of often ideologically infused ideas through information networks to promote an organization’s interests over those of its adversaries. In this article, we analyse the ways in which ExxonMobil and Greenpeace employ distinctive informational tactics against a range of diverse targets in their dispute over the climate change debate. The purpose of this article is to advance the neo-Gramscian perspective on social movement organizations as a framework for understanding such behaviour. We argue that information warfare is likely to become common as corporations and non-governmental organizations are increasingly sensitive to their informational environment as a source of both opportunity and possible conflict.

How research-prioritization exercises affect conservation policy

Conservation scientists are concerned about the apparent lack of impact their research is having on policy. By better aligning research with policy needs, conservation science might become more relevant to policy and increase its real-world salience in the conservation of biological diversity. Consequently, some conservation scientists have embarked on a variety of exercises to identify research questions that, if answered, would provide the evidence base with which to develop and implement effective conservation policies. I synthesized two existing approaches to conceptualizing research impacts. One widely used approach classifies the impacts of research as conceptual, instrumental, and symbolic. Conceptual impacts occur when policy makers are sensitized to new issues and change their beliefs or thinking. Instrumental impacts arise when scientific research has a direct effect on policy decisions. The use of scientific research results to support established policy positions are symbolic impacts. The second approach classifies research issues according to whether scientific knowledge is developed fully and whether the policy issue has been articulated clearly. I believe exercises to identify important research questions have objectives of increasing the clarity of policy issues while strengthening science-policy interactions. This may facilitate the transmission of scientific knowledge to policy makers and, potentially, accelerate the development and implementation of effective conservation policy. Other, similar types of exercises might also be useful. For example, identification of visionary science questions independent of current policy needs, prioritization of best practices for transferring scientific knowledge to policy makers, and identification of questions about human values and their role in political processes could all help advance real-world conservation science. It is crucial for conservation scientists to understand the wide variety of ways in which their research can affect policy and be improved systematically.

The urgent need for universities to comprehensively address global climate change across disciplines and programs

I review the status of scientific, political, and moral problems of global climate change (GCC) and, based on lessons from environmental and sustainability programs in universities, demonstrate that universities have had a lethargic response to urgent needs to mitigate the problems. I explore reasons for the response, and conclude that there is an urgent need for comprehensive and wide-ranging change in universities to help mitigate GCC. My discussion is focused on those within universities as well as those in environmental professions regardless of their areas of specialization.

Global health and climate change: moving from denial and catastrophic fatalism to positive action

The health effects of climate change have had relatively little attention from climate scientists and governments. Climate change will be a major threat to population health in the current century through its potential effects on communicable disease, heat stress, food and water security, extreme weather events, vulnerable shelter and population migration. This paper addresses three health-sector strategies to manage the health effects of climate change-promotion of mitigation, tackling the pathways that lead to ill-health and strengthening health systems. Mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is affordable, and low-carbon technologies are available now or will be in the near future. Pathways to ill-health can be managed through better information, poverty reduction, technological innovation, social and cultural change and greater coordination of national and international institutions. Strengthening health systems requires increased investment in order to provide effective public health responses to climate-induced threats to health, equitable treatment of illness, promotion of low-carbon lifestyles and renewable energy solutions within health facilities. Mitigation and adaptation strategies will produce substantial benefits for health, such as reductions in obesity and heart disease, diabetes, stress and depression, pneumonia and asthma, as well as potential cost savings within the health sector. The case for mitigating climate change by reducing GHGs is overwhelming. The need to build population resilience to the global health threat from already unavoidable climate change is real and urgent. Action must not be delayed by contrarians, nor by catastrophic fatalists who say it is all too late.

Measurement and prediction of enteric methane emission

The greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the agricultural sector account for about 25.5% of total global anthropogenic emission. While CO(2) receives the most attention as a factor relative to global warming, CH(4), N(2)O and chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) also cause significant radiative forcing. With the relative global warming potential of 25 compared with CO(2), CH(4) is one of the most important GHGs. This article reviews the prediction models, estimation methodology and strategies for reducing enteric CH(4) emissions. Emission of CH(4) in ruminants differs among developed and developing countries, depending on factors like animal species, breed, pH of rumen fluid, ratio of acetate:propionate, methanogen population, composition of diet and amount of concentrate fed. Among the ruminant animals, cattle contribute the most towards the greenhouse effect through methane emission followed by sheep, goats and buffalos, respectively. The estimated CH(4) emission rate per cattle, buffaloe, sheep and goat in developed countries are 150.7, 137, 21.9 and 13.7 (g/animal/day) respectively. However, the estimated rates in developing countries are significantly lower at 95.9 and 13.7 (g/animal/day) per cattle and sheep, respectively. There exists a strong interest in developing new and improving the existing CH(4) prediction models to identify mitigation strategies for reducing the overall CH(4) emissions. A synthesis of the available literature suggests that the mechanistic models are superior to empirical models in accurately predicting the CH(4) emission from dairy farms. The latest development in prediction model is the integrated farm system model which is a process-based whole-farm simulation technique. Several techniques are used to quantify enteric CH(4) emissions starting from whole animal chambers to sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) tracer techniques. The latest technology developed to estimate CH(4) more accurately is the micrometeorological mass difference technique. Because the conditions under which animals are managed vary greatly by country, CH(4) emissions reduction strategies must be tailored to country-specific circumstances. Strategies that are cost effective, improve productivity, and have limited potential negative effects on livestock production hold a greater chance of being adopted by producers. It is also important to evaluate CH(4) mitigation strategies in terms of the total GHG budget and to consider the economics of various strategies. Although reductions in GHG emissions from livestock industries are seen as high priorities, strategies for reducing emissions should not reduce the economic viability of enterprises.

Climate change: the evidence and our options

Glaciers serve as early indicators of climate change. Over the last 35 years, our research team has recovered ice-core records of climatic and environmental variations from the polar regions and from low-latitude high-elevation ice fields from 16 countries. The ongoing widespread melting of high-elevation glaciers and ice caps, particularly in low to middle latitudes, provides some of the strongest evidence to date that a large-scale, pervasive, and, in some cases, rapid change in Earth's climate system is underway. This paper highlights observations of 20th and 21st century glacier shrinkage in the Andes, the Himalayas, and on Mount Kilimanjaro. Ice cores retrieved from shrinking glaciers around the world confirm their continuous existence for periods ranging from hundreds of years to multiple millennia, suggesting that climatological conditions that dominate those regions today are different from those under which these ice fields originally accumulated and have been sustained. The current warming is therefore unusual when viewed from the millennial perspective provided by multiple lines of proxy evidence and the 160-year record of direct temperature measurements. Despite all this evidence, plus the well-documented continual increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, societies have taken little action to address this global-scale problem. Hence, the rate of global carbon dioxide emissions continues to accelerate. As a result of our inaction, we have three options: mitigation, adaptation, and suffering.