U.S. Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 epidemic: date of origin, population history, and characterization of early strains

In Search of Covariates of HIV-1 Subtype B Spread in the United States-A Cautionary Tale of Large-Scale Bayesian Phylogeography

Infections with HIV-1 group M subtype B viruses account for the majority of the HIV epidemic in the Western world. Phylogeographic studies have placed the introduction of subtype B in the United States in New York around 1970, where it grew into a major source of spread. Currently, it is estimated that over one million people are living with HIV in the US and that most are infected with subtype B variants. Here, we aim to identify the drivers of HIV-1 subtype B dispersal in the United States by analyzing a collection of 23,588 pol sequences, collected for drug resistance testing from 45 states during 2004-2011. To this end, we introduce a workflow to reduce this large collection of data to more computationally-manageable sample sizes and apply the BEAST framework to test which covariates associate with the spread of HIV-1 across state borders. Our results show that we are able to consistently identify certain predictors of spread under reasonable run times across datasets of up to 10,000 sequences. However, the general lack of phylogenetic structure and the high uncertainty associated with HIV trees make it difficult to interpret the epidemiological relevance of the drivers of spread we are able to identify. While the workflow we present here could be applied to other virus datasets of a similar scale, the characteristic star-like shape of HIV-1 phylogenies poses a serious obstacle to reconstructing a detailed evolutionary and spatial history for HIV-1 subtype B in the US.

Prediction of Multi peptides Vaccination from VP10,VP21, VP51 against Reverse Transcriptase Human immunodeficiency Viruses Using Immuno-informatics Approach.. [DOI: 10.1101/2019.12.16.877555] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0]

The human immunodeficiency virus-(HIV) is group of the genus Lentivirus within the family of Retroviridae, subfamily Ortho retrovirinae. Based on genetic characteristics and differences in the viral antigens, HIV is classified into the types 1 and 2 (HIV-1, HIV-2). HIV is identical single – stranded RNA molecule that are enclosed within the core of the virus particle proteins, the genome of the HIV Provirus, also known as DNA, is generated by the Protease against reverse transcriptase RNA genome into DNA, degradation of the RNA and integration of the double – stranded HIV DNA into the human genome. The aim of this study is to determine antigenic peptides from p10, p21, and p51 proteins that can be used for multiple peptide vaccine design using In-Silico study. A total of 73 sequences of three proteins were obtained from NCBI and subjected to multiple sequence alignments using CLUSTALW tool to determine conserved regions.

Immune Epitope Data Base tools were used to determine B cell epitopes, these tools are Bepipred Linear B cell epitopes prediction, surface accessibility and antigenicity prediction. Epitope binding to MHC class I and class II and their population coverage were also determined using IEDB software. The analysis results are as follow, for B cell binding from p10 (708QGYSP712), from p21 (704QGYSP708,73CVPTDPNPQ81) and (346“FKNL349) from p51. All these peptides have high score in Linear B cell epitopes prediction, surface accessibility and antigenicity prediction. On another hand peptides that reacted to MHC class I were (47EANTTLFCA55,53FCASDAKAY61,55,ASDAKAYET63) form p10,(38YYGVPVWKE46,10PQEVFLVNV18and29AAGSTMGAA37) from p21 and (63“EWEFVNTPP71,70PPLVKLWYQ78and79EKEPIVGA87) from p51 protein respectively. It worth noting that the peptides (119IISLWDQSL127,108CVKLTPLCV116) from p10, (38YYGVPVWKE46,20LLQYWSQEL34,16FNMWKNNMV30) from p21 and (7WKGSPAIFQ21,11WEFVNTPPL25and58FLWMGYELH72) protein is also binds to MHC class II with high affinity. All T cell peptides had highest population coverage, and the combined coverage for all peptides in this study was found to be 100%. Using In-Silico studies will ensure less risk of virulence and side effects. Evaluation of antibodies response in animal models is needed to confirm efficacy of these epitopes in inducing protective immune response.

Divergence dating using mixed effects clock modelling: An application to HIV-1

The need to estimate divergence times in evolutionary histories in the presence of various sources of substitution rate variation has stimulated a rich development of relaxed molecular clock models. Viral evolutionary studies frequently adopt an uncorrelated clock model as a generic relaxed molecular clock process, but this may impose considerable estimation bias if discrete rate variation exists among clades or lineages. For HIV-1 group M, rate variation among subtypes has been shown to result in inconsistencies in time to the most recent common ancestor estimation. Although this calls into question the adequacy of available molecular dating methods, no solution to this problem has been offered so far. Here, we investigate the use of mixed effects molecular clock models, which combine both fixed and random effects in the evolutionary rate, to estimate divergence times. Using simulation, we demonstrate that this model outperforms existing molecular clock models in a Bayesian framework for estimating time-measured phylogenies in the presence of mixed sources of rate variation, while also maintaining good performance in simpler scenarios. By analysing a comprehensive HIV-1 group M complete genome data set we confirm considerable rate variation among subtypes that is not adequately modelled by uncorrelated relaxed clock models. The mixed effects clock model can accommodate this rate variation and results in a time to the most recent common ancestor of HIV-1 group M of 1920 (1915-25), which is only slightly earlier than the uncorrelated relaxed clock estimate for the same data set. The use of complete genome data appears to have a more profound impact than the molecular clock model because it reduces the credible intervals by 50 per cent relative to similar estimates based on short envelope gene sequences.

Origin and Spread of HIV-1 Subtype B Among Heterosexual Individuals in Bulgaria

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) was originally introduced in Bulgaria through heterosexual transmission (HET) and later transferred to other vulnerable groups along with numerous more recent introductions from outside Bulgaria. To define the diversity, origins, and dynamics of the HIV-1 subtypes prevalent in HET population in Bulgaria, we applied phylogenetic and phylodynamic analyses using polymerase (pol) sequences from HET individuals to infer the spatiotemporal evolutionary history of the HIV-1 epidemic in this population in Bulgaria. High genetic diversity was found, including 13 different HIV-1 subtypes: 45.7% subtype B, 19.9% CRF01_AE, 7.5% CRF02_AG, 7.5% sub-subtypes A1 and A6, 7.1% subtype C, 5.3% subtype F1, 4.0% URFs, 1.2% CRF05_DF, 0.6% subtype G, 0.3% CRF04_cpx, 0.3% CRF29_BF, 0.3% CRF14_BG, and 0.3% subtype H. The estimated root of the subtype B in the phylogenetic tree dated back to the year 1980 largely due to multiple introductions of subtype B from outside the country. Several significant clades have been identified highlighting six different main epidemic entrances of subtype B dating from 1989 to 2007. The Bayesian skyline plot showed two different exponential growth periods starting in the 1980s to 1990 followed by a constant phase up to about 2008, with another exponential growth period from 2008 to the year 2012. The migration analysis identified dynamic pattern of gene flow and demonstrated that many HET probably acquired the infection abroad (14.6%), while only (6.6%) of non-HET were infected outside country. The phylogenetic analysis showed an intermixing between sequences from Bulgarians with sequences from other countries, suggesting different HIV introduction in this country followed by the internal spread through local transmission networks.

HIV and mental illness in Malawi and the neuropsychiatric sequelae of efavirenz

Introduction

Little is published about mental disorders in Malawi, specifically in relation to Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) and it's treatment. Efavirenz is a medication commonly used as part of triple therapy for HIV treatment. Indeed, in 2013, Malawi introduced 5A with Efavirenz as part of it's 1st line treatment for HIV. There exists some literature documenting known psychiatric side effects of Efavirenz, which include anxiety, mood changes, nightmares, psychosis and suicidal ideation. Little is known about what features are most common in the presentation and what factors in the patient and drug which may make this reaction more likely.

Aim

The aim of this commentary is to review the association between HIV and psychiatric disorder, and consider the neuropsychiatric side-effects of Efavirenz.

Method

An evaluative literature review was completed by means of multiple electronic database search as well as an additional manual search to obtain published works identified through the electronic search. Search terms used were: Efavirenz, Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome, Africa, Antiretroviral Therapy, Developing Countries, Malawi, Mental Disorders, Public Health, and Psychiatry.

Conclusion

This is an important area of study, as potentially large numbers of individuals with HIV are being placed on Efavirenz as first line treatment, yet 60% may experience some form of neuropsychiatric side effects.

Insight into the global evolution of Rodentia associated Morbilli-related paramyxoviruses

One portion of the family Paramyxoviridae is a group of Unclassified Morbilli-Related Viruses (UMRV) recently recognized in wild small mammals. At a global level, the evolutionary history of these viruses is not properly understood and the relationships between UMRV and their hosts still remain largely unstudied. The present study revealed, for the first time, that Rodentia associated UMRV emerged from a common ancestor in southern Africa more than 4000 years ago. Sequenced UMRV originating from different regions in the world, clustered into four well-supported viral lineages, which suggest that strain diversification occurred during host dispersal and associated exchanges, with purifying selection pressure as the principal evolutionary force. In addition, multi-introductions on different continents and islands of Rodentia associated UMRV and spillover between rodent species, most probably Rattus rattus, were detected and indicate that these animals are implicated in the vectoring and in the worldwide emergence of this virus group. The natural history and the evolution dynamics of these zoonotic viruses, originating from and hosted by wild animals, are most likely shaped by commensalism related to human activities.

Molecular Epidemiology of Human Immunodeficiency Virus

During the evolution of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), transmissions between humans and primates resulted in multiple HIV lineages in humans. This evolution has been rapid, giving rise to a complex classification and allowing for worldwide spread and intermixing of subtypes, which has consequently led to dozens of circulating recombinant forms. In the Republic of Korea, 12,522 cases of HIV infection have been reported between 1985, when AIDS was first identified, and 2015. This review focuses on the evolution of HIV infection worldwide and the molecular epidemiologic characteristics of HIV in Korea.

Molecular epidemiology of HIV-1 infection in Europe: An overview

Human Immunodeficiency Virus type 1 (HIV-1) is characterised by vast genetic diversity. Globally circulating HIV-1 viruses are classified into distinct phylogenetic strains (subtypes, sub-subtypes) and several recombinant forms. Here we describe the characteristics and evolution of European HIV-1 epidemic over time through a review of published literature and updated queries of existing HIV-1 sequence databases. HIV-1 in Western and Central Europe was introduced in the early-1980s in the form of subtype B, which is still the predominant clade. However, in Eastern Europe (Former Soviet Union (FSU) countries and Russia) the predominant strain, introduced into Ukraine in the mid-1990s, is subtype A (A_FSU) with transmission mostly occurring in People Who Inject Drugs (PWID). In recent years, the epidemic is evolving towards a complex tapestry with an increase in the prevalence of non-B subtypes and recombinants in Western and Central Europe. Non-B epidemics are mainly associated with immigrants, heterosexuals and females but more recently, non-B clades have also spread amongst groups where non-B strains were previously absent - non-immigrant European populations and amongst men having sex with men (MSM). In some countries, non-B clades have spread amongst the native population, for example subtype G in Portugal and subtype A in Greece, Albania and Cyprus. Romania provides a unique case where sub-subtype F1 has predominated throughout the epidemic. In contrast, HIV-1 epidemic in FSU countries remains more homogeneous with A_FSU clade predominating in all countries. The differences between the evolution of the Western epidemic and the Eastern epidemic may be attributable to differences in transmission risk behaviours, lifestyle and the patterns of human mobility. The study of HIV-1 epidemic diversity provides a useful tool by which we can understand the history of the pandemic in addition to allowing us to monitor the spread and growth of the epidemic over time.

The application of HIV molecular epidemiology to public health

HIV is responsible for one of the largest viral pandemics in human history. Despite a concerted global response for prevention and treatment, the virus persists. Thus, urgent public health action, utilizing novel interventions, is needed to prevent future transmission events, critical to eliminating HIV. For public health planning to prove effective and successful, we need to understand the dynamics of regional epidemics and to intervene appropriately. HIV molecular epidemiology tools as implemented in phylogenetic, phylodynamic and phylogeographic analyses have proven to be powerful tools in public health planning across many studies. Numerous applications with HIV suggest that molecular methods alone or in combination with mathematical modelling can provide inferences about the transmission dynamics, critical epidemiological parameters (prevalence, incidence, effective number of infections, Re, generation times, time between infection and diagnosis), or the spatiotemporal characteristics of epidemics. Molecular tools have been used to assess the impact of an intervention and outbreak investigation which are of great public health relevance. In some settings, molecular sequence data may be more readily available than HIV surveillance data, and can therefore allow for molecular analyses to be conducted more easily. Nonetheless, classic methods have an integral role in monitoring and evaluation of public health programmes, and should supplement emerging techniques from the field of molecular epidemiology. Importantly, molecular epidemiology remains a promising approach in responding to viral diseases.

HIV-1 subtype B: Traces of a pandemic

Human migration is a major process that shaped the origin and dissemination of HIV. Within HIV-1, subtype B (HIV-1B) is the most disseminated variant and it is assumed to be the causative agent in approximately 11% of all cases of HIV worldwide. Phylogenetic studies have revealed that HIV-1B emerged in Kinshasa (Africa) and was introduced into the Caribbean region via Haiti in or around 1966 by human migration. After localized dispersion, the virus was brought to the United States of America via homosexual/bisexual contact around 1969. Inside USA, the incidence of HIV-1B infection increased exponentially and it became established in the population, affecting not only homosexual individuals but also heterosexual individuals and injecting drug users. Soon after, the virus was disseminated and became established in other regions, including Europe, Asia, Latin America, and Australia. Recent studies suggest that, in addition to this pandemic clade, several lineages have emerged from Haiti and reached other Caribbean and Latin American countries via short-distance dissemination. Different subtype B genetic variants have also been detected in these epidemics. Four genetic variants have been described to date: subtype B', which mainly circulates in Thailand and other Asian countries; a specific variant mainly found in Trinidad and Tobago; the GPGS variant, which is primarily detected in Korea; and the GWGR variant, which is mainly detected in Brazil. This paper reviews the evolution of HIV-1B and its impact on the human population.

Phylodynamics of major HIV-1 subtype B pandemic clades circulating in Latin America

OBJECTIVE

To obtain a comprehensive description of the evolutionary and demographic history of major HIV-1 subtype B pandemic (BPANDEMIC) clades circulating in Latin America.

DESIGN

A total of 6789 HIV-1 subtype B pol sequences collected from seven different Latin American countries between 1990 and 2011 were combined with BPANDEMIC reference sequences (n = 500) from the United States and France.

METHODS

Major BPANDEMIC clades were identified by maximum likelihood phylogenetic analysis with sequential pruning of ambiguously positioned taxa. Time scale and demographic reconstructions were performed using a Bayesian coalescent-based method.

RESULTS

We identified 12 major BPANDEMIC monophyletic lineages mainly composed by Latin American sequences and that together comprise 36% of all subtype B sequences from the region here included. Four clades belong to two major regional lineages that comprise sequences from at least two neighboring countries, whereas the other eight clades were country-specific. The median age of major Latin American BPANDEMIC clades encompass a period of two decades (1968-1988), although most of them probably arose before the early 1980s. All major clades seem to have experienced an initial period of exponential growth, with median epidemic growth rates that range from 0.50 yearto 0.94 year, followed by a recent decline in growth rate.

CONCLUSION

About one-third of HIV-1 subtype B infections in Latin America originated from the spread of a few BPANDEMIC founder strains probably introduced in the region since the late 1960s. Despite their initial successful dissemination, all major BPANDEMIC clades showed signs of subsequent epidemic stabilization.

Short Communication: HIV-1 Subtype B in the Dominican Republic: Evolution and Molecular Epidemiology

The Caribbean region has the world second highest incidence rate of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome. The island of Hispaniola is composed of two sovereign nations: the Dominican Republic and Haiti. Together, they account for more than 85% of HIV/AIDS cases in the Caribbean; and the Dominican Republic alone has approximately 46,000 (33,000-59,000) HIV-1-infected adults and children. Despite this, the magnitude of the genetic variability and evolution of the HIV-1 virus in the Dominican Republic is unclear. In the current study, we analyzed 195 reverse transcriptase (RT) sequences obtained from the Los Alamos HIV database. The data were used to assess the course of the viral epidemic over time in the Dominican Republic, using a coalescent approach. Based on the data, we estimated that the timing of the most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) of local HIV-1 subtype B emerged in 1963, approximately. In addition, the Bayesian analysis provided new information that suggests that the epidemic in the Dominican Republic experienced a significant decrease in relative genetic diversity in the past 2 decades. The results suggest that adherence to antiretroviral therapy, adequate prevention campaigns, and better access to health care may be altering the virus's evolution in the Dominican Republic.

Evolutionary Dynamics of Tat in HIV-1 Subtypes B and C

Evolutionary characteristics of HIV-1 have mostly studied focusing its structural genes, Gag, Pol and Env. However, regarding the process of HIV-1's evolution, few studies emphasize on genetic changes in regulatory proteins. Here we investigate the evolutionary dynamics of HIV-1, targeting one of its important regulatory proteins, Tat. We performed a phylogenetic analysis and employed a Bayesian coalescent-based approach using the BEAST package to investigate the evolutionary changes in Tat over time in the process of HIV-1 evolution. HIV-1 sequences of subtypes B and C from different parts of the world were obtained from the Los Alamos database. The mean estimated nucleotide substitution rates for Tat in HIV-1 subtypes B and C were 1.53x10^-3 (95% highest probability density- HPD Interval: 1.09 x10^-3 to 2.08x10^-3) and 2.14x10^-3 (95% HPD Interval: 1.35 x10^-3 to 2.91x10^-3) per site per year, respectively, which is relatively low compared to structural proteins. The median times of the most recent common ancestors (tMRCA) were estimated to be around 1933 (95% HPD, 1907–1952) and 1956 (95% HPD, 1934–1970) for subtypes B and C, respectively. Our analysis shows that subtype C appeared in the global population two decades after the introduction of subtype B. A Gaussian Markov random field (GMRF) skyride coalescent analysis demonstrates that the early expansion rate of subtype B was quite high, rapidly progressing during the 1960s and 1970s to the early 1990s, after which the rate increased up to the 2010s. In contrast, HIV-1 subtype C exhibited a relatively slow occurrence rate until the late 1980s when there was a sharp increase up to the end of 1990s; thereafter, the rate of occurrence gradually slowed. Our study highlights the importance of examining the internal/regulatory genes of HIV-1 to understand its complete evolutionary dynamics. The study results will therefore contribute to better understanding of HIV-1 evolution.

Genetic and epidemiological insights into the emergence of peste des petits ruminants virus (PPRV) across Asia and Africa

Small ruminants are important components in the livelihood of millions of households in many parts of the world. The spread of the highly contagious peste des petits ruminants (PPR) disease, which is caused by an RNA virus, PPRV, across Asia and Africa remains a major concern. The present study explored the evolutionary and epidemiological dynamics of PPRV through the analyses of partial N-gene and F-gene sequences of the virus. All the four previously described PPRV lineages (I-IV) diverged from their common ancestor during the late-19(th) to early-20(th) century. Among the four lineages, PPRV-IV showed pronounced genetic structuring across the region; however, haplotype sharing among the geographic regions, together with the presence of multiple genetic clusters within a country, indicates the possibility of frequent mobility of the diseased individuals across the region. The gradual decline in the effective number of infections suggests a limited genetic variation, which could be attributed to the effective vaccination that has been practiced since 1990s. However, the movement of infected animals across the region likely contributes to the spread of PPRV-IV. No evidence of positive selection was identified from this study.

Phylogenetic analyses reveal HIV-1 infections between men misclassified as heterosexual transmissions

OBJECTIVE

HIV-1 subtype B infections are associated with MSM in the UK. Yet, around 13% of subtype B infections are found in those reporting heterosexual contact as transmission route. Using phylogenetics, we explored possible misclassification of sexual exposure among men diagnosed with HIV in the UK.

DESIGN

Viral gene sequences linked to patient-derived information were used to identify phylogenetic transmission chains.

METHODS

A total of 22,481 HIV-1 subtype B pol gene sequences sampled between 1996 and 2008 were analysed. Dated phylogenies were reconstructed and transmission clusters identified as clades of at least two sequences with a maximum genetic distance of 4.5%, a branch support of at least 95% and spanning 5 years. The characteristics of clusters containing at least one heterosexually acquired infection were analysed.

RESULTS

Twenty-nine percent of the linked heterosexuals clustered exclusively with MSM. These were more likely to be men than women. Estimated misclassification of homosexually acquired infections ranged between 1 and 11% of the reported male heterosexuals diagnosed with HIV. Black African heterosexual men were more often phylogenetically linked to MSM than other ethnic group, with an estimated misclassification range between 1 and 21%.

CONCLUSION

Overall, a small proportion of self-reported heterosexual men diagnosed with HIV could have been infected homosexually. However, up to one in five black African heterosexual men chose not to disclose sex with men at HIV diagnosis and preferred to be identified as heterosexual. Phylogenetic analyses can enhance surveillance-based risk information and inform national programmes for monitoring and preventing HIV infections.

Spatiotemporal dynamics of dissemination of non-pandemic HIV-1 subtype B clades in the Caribbean region

The Human immunodeficiency virus type-1 (HIV-1) epidemic in the Caribbean region is mostly driven by subtype B; but information about the pattern of viral spread in this geographic region is scarce and different studies point to quite divergent models of viral dissemination. In this study, we reconstructed the spatiotemporal and population dynamics of the HIV-1 subtype B epidemic in the Caribbean. A total of 1,806 HIV-1 subtype B pol sequences collected from 17 different Caribbean islands between 1996 and 2011 were analyzed together with sequences from the United States (n = 525) and France (n = 340) included as control. Maximum Likelihood phylogenetic analyses revealed that HIV-1 subtype B infections in the Caribbean are driven by dissemination of the pandemic clade (BPANDEMIC) responsible for most subtype B infections across the world, and older non-pandemic lineages (BCAR) characteristics of the Caribbean region. The non-pandemic BCAR strains account for >40% of HIV-1 infections in most Caribbean islands; with exception of Cuba and Puerto Rico. Bayesian phylogeographic analyses indicate that BCAR strains probably arose in the island of Hispaniola (Haiti/Dominican Republic) around the middle 1960s and were later disseminated to Trinidad and Tobago and to Jamaica between the late 1960s and the early 1970s. In the following years, the BCAR strains were also disseminated from Hispaniola and Trinidad and Tobago to other Lesser Antilles islands at multiple times. The BCAR clades circulating in Hispaniola, Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago appear to have experienced an initial phase of exponential growth, with mean estimated growth rates of 0.35-0.45 year(-1), followed by a more recent stabilization since the middle 1990s. These results demonstrate that non-pandemic subtype B lineages have been widely disseminated through the Caribbean since the late 1960s and account for an important fraction of current HIV-1 infections in the region.

Impact of clade, geography, and age of the epidemic on HIV-1 neutralization by antibodies

Neutralizing antibodies (nAbs) are a high priority for vaccines that aim to prevent the acquisition of HIV-1 infection. Vaccine effectiveness will depend on the extent to which induced antibodies neutralize the global diversity of circulating HIV-1 variants. Using large panels of genetically and geographically diverse HIV-1 Env-pseudotyped viruses and chronic infection plasma samples, we unambiguously show that cross-clade nAb responses are commonly induced in response to infection by any virus clade. Nonetheless, neutralization was significantly greater when the plasma clade matched the clade of the virus being tested. This within-clade advantage was diminished in older, more-diverse epidemics in southern Africa, the United States, and Europe compared to more recent epidemics in Asia. It was most pronounced for circulating recombinant form (CRF) 07_BC, which is common in China and is the least-divergent lineage studied; this was followed by the slightly more diverse Asian CRF01_AE. We found no evidence that transmitted/founder viruses are generally more susceptible to neutralization and are therefore easier targets for vaccination than chronic viruses. Features of the gp120 V1V2 loop, in particular, length, net charge, and number of N-linked glycans, were associated with Env susceptibility and plasma neutralization potency in a manner consistent with neutralization escape being a force that drives viral diversification and plasma neutralization breadth. The overall susceptibility of Envs and potencies of plasma samples were highly predictive of the neutralization outcome of any single virus-plasma combination. These findings highlight important considerations for the design and testing of candidate HIV-1 vaccines that aim to elicit effective nAbs.

IMPORTANCE

An effective HIV-1 vaccine will need to overcome the extraordinary variability of the virus, which is most pronounced in the envelope glycoproteins (Env), which are the sole targets for neutralizing antibodies (nAbs). Distinct genetic lineages, or clades, of HIV-1 occur in different locales that may require special consideration when designing and testing vaccines candidates. We show that nAb responses to HIV-1 infection are generally active across clades but are most potent within clades. Because effective vaccine-induced nAbs are likely to share these properties, optimal coverage of a particular clade or combination of clades may require clade-matched immunogens. Optimal within-clade coverage might be easier to achieve in regions such as China and Thailand, where the epidemic is more recent and the virus less diverse than in southern Africa, the United States, and Europe. Finally, features of the first and second hypervariable regions of gp120 (V1V2) may be critical for optimal vaccine design.

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) subtype B epidemic in Panama is mainly driven by dissemination of country-specific clades

The Human immunodeficiency virus type-1 (HIV-1) subtype B is the most predominant clade in Central America; but information about the evolutionary history of this virus in this geographic region is scarce. In this study, we reconstructed the spatiotemporal and population dynamics of the HIV-1 subtype B epidemic in Panama. A total of 761 HIV-1 subtype B pol sequences obtained in Panama between 2004 and 2013 were combined with subtype B pol sequences from the Americas and Europe. Maximum Likelihood phylogenetic analyses revealed that HIV-1 subtype B infections in Panama derived from the dissemination of multiple founder viruses. Most Panamanian subtype B viruses (94.5%) belong to the pandemic viral strain proposed as originated in the US, whereas others (5.5%) were intermixed among non-pandemic Caribbean strains. The bulk (76.6%) of subtype B sequences from Panama grouped within 12 country-specific clades that were not detected in other Central American countries. Bayesian coalescent-based analyses suggest that most Panamanian clades probably originated between the early 1970s and the early 1980s. The root location of major Panamanian clades was traced to the most densely populated districts of Panama province. Major Panamanian clades appear to have experienced one or two periods of exponential growth of variable duration between the 1970s and the 2000s, with median growth rates from 0.2 to 0.4 year⁻¹. Thus, the HIV-1 subtype B epidemic in Panama is driven by the expansion of local viral strains that were introduced from the Caribbean and other American countries at an early stage of the AIDS pandemic.

Beyond race and place: distal sociological determinants of HIV disparities

Informed behavior change as an HIV prevention tool has yielded unequal successes across populations. Despite decades of HIV education, some individuals remain at high risk. The mainstream media often portrays these risk factors as products of race and national borders; however, a rich body of recent literature proposes a host of complex social factors that influence behavior, including, but not limited to: poverty, income inequality, stigmatizing social institutions and health care access. We examined the relationship between numerous social indicators and HIV incidence across eighty large U.S. cities in 1990 and 2000. During this time, major correlating factors included income inequality, poverty, educational attainment, residential segregation and marriage rates. However, these ecological factors were weighted differentially across risk groups (e.g. heterosexual, intravenous drug use, men who have sex with men (MSM)). Heterosexual risk rose significantly with poor economic indicators, while MSM risk depended more heavily on anti-homosexual stigma (as measured by same-sex marriage laws). HIV incidence among black individuals correlated significantly with numerous economic factors but also with segregation and imbalances in the male:female ratio (often an effect of mass incarceration). Our results support an overall model of HIV ecology where poverty, income inequality and social inequality (in the form of institutionalized racism and anti-homosexual stigma) have over time developed into synergistic drivers of disease transmission in the U.S., inhibiting information-based prevention efforts. The relative weights of these distal factors vary over time and by HIV risk group. Our testable model may be more generally applicable within the U.S. and beyond.

Genotypic and functional impact of HIV-1 adaptation to its host population during the North American epidemic

HLA-restricted immune escape mutations that persist following HIV transmission could gradually spread through the viral population, thereby compromising host antiviral immunity as the epidemic progresses. To assess the extent and phenotypic impact of this phenomenon in an immunogenetically diverse population, we genotypically and functionally compared linked HLA and HIV (Gag/Nef) sequences from 358 historic (1979-1989) and 382 modern (2000-2011) specimens from four key cities in the North American epidemic (New York, Boston, San Francisco, Vancouver). Inferred HIV phylogenies were star-like, with approximately two-fold greater mean pairwise distances in modern versus historic sequences. The reconstructed epidemic ancestral (founder) HIV sequence was essentially identical to the North American subtype B consensus. Consistent with gradual diversification of a "consensus-like" founder virus, the median "background" frequencies of individual HLA-associated polymorphisms in HIV (in individuals lacking the restricting HLA[s]) were ∼ 2-fold higher in modern versus historic HIV sequences, though these remained notably low overall (e.g. in Gag, medians were 3.7% in the 2000s versus 2.0% in the 1980s). HIV polymorphisms exhibiting the greatest relative spread were those restricted by protective HLAs. Despite these increases, when HIV sequences were analyzed as a whole, their total average burden of polymorphisms that were "pre-adapted" to the average host HLA profile was only ∼ 2% greater in modern versus historic eras. Furthermore, HLA-associated polymorphisms identified in historic HIV sequences were consistent with those detectable today, with none identified that could explain the few HIV codons where the inferred epidemic ancestor differed from the modern consensus. Results are therefore consistent with slow HIV adaptation to HLA, but at a rate unlikely to yield imminent negative implications for cellular immunity, at least in North America. Intriguingly, temporal changes in protein activity of patient-derived Nef (though not Gag) sequences were observed, suggesting functional implications of population-level HIV evolution on certain viral proteins.

Phylodynamics of the HIV-1 epidemic in Cuba

Previous studies have shown that the HIV-1 epidemic in Cuba displayed a complex molecular epidemiologic profile with circulation of several subtypes and circulating recombinant forms (CRF); but the evolutionary and population history of those viral variants remains unknown. HIV-1 pol sequences of the most prevalent Cuban lineages (subtypes B, C and G, CRF18_cpx, CRF19_cpx, and CRFs20/23/24_BG) isolated between 1999 and 2011 were analyzed. Maximum-likelihood analyses revealed multiple introductions of subtype B (n≥66), subtype C (n≥10), subtype G (n≥8) and CRF18_cpx (n≥2) viruses in Cuba. The bulk of HIV-1 infections in this country, however, was caused by dissemination of a few founder strains probably introduced from North America/Europe (clades B_CU-I and B_CU-II), east Africa (clade C_CU-I) and central Africa (clades G_CU, CRF18_CU and CRF19_CU), or locally generated (clades CRFs20/23/24_BG). Bayesian-coalescent analyses show that the major HIV-1 founder strains were introduced into Cuba during 1985–1995; whereas the CRFs_BG strains emerged in the second half of the 1990s. Most HIV-1 Cuban clades appear to have experienced an initial period of fast exponential spread during the 1990s and early 2000s, followed by a more recent decline in growth rate. The median initial growth rate of HIV-1 Cuban clades ranged from 0.4 year⁻¹ to 1.6 year⁻¹. Thus, the HIV-1 epidemic in Cuba has been a result of the successful introduction of a few viral strains that began to circulate at a rather late time of the AIDS pandemic, but then were rapidly disseminated through local transmission networks.

Prospects of elimination of HIV with test-and-treat strategy

Recently, there has been much debate about the prospects of eliminating HIV from high endemic countries by a test-and-treat strategy. This strategy entails regular HIV testing in the entire population and starting antiretroviral treatment immediately in all who are found to be HIV infected. We present the concept of the elimination threshold and investigate under what conditions of treatment uptake and dropout elimination of HIV is feasible. We used a deterministic model incorporating an accurate description of disease progression and variable infectivity. We derived explicit expressions for the basic reproduction number and the elimination threshold. Using estimates of exponential growth rates of HIV during the initial phase of epidemics, we investigated for which populations elimination is within reach. The concept of the elimination threshold allows an assessment of the prospects of elimination of HIV from information in the early phase of the epidemic. The relative elimination threshold quantifies prospects of elimination independently of the details of the transmission dynamics. Elimination of HIV by test-and-treat is only feasible for populations with very low reproduction numbers or if the reproduction number is lowered significantly as a result of additional interventions. Allowing low infectiousness during primary infection, the likelihood of elimination becomes somewhat higher. The elimination threshold is a powerful tool for assessing prospects of elimination from available data on epidemic growth rates of HIV. Empirical estimates of the epidemic growth rate from phylogenetic studies were used to assess the potential for elimination in specific populations.

HIV-1 epidemic in Warao Amerindians from Venezuela: spatial phylodynamics and epidemiological patterns

OBJECTIVES

We previously reported HIV-1 infection in Warao Amerindians from Venezuela. The aim of this study was to evaluate the extent and the dynamic of HIV-1 dissemination in eight Warao communities.

DESIGN AND SETTING

HIV-1 infection was evaluated in 576 Warao Amerindians from the Orinoco Delta. Partial HIV-1 pol sequences were analyzed to reconstruct the spatiotemporal and demographic dynamics of the epidemic.

RESULTS

HIV-1 antibodies were present in 9.55% of Warao Amerindians, ranging from 0 to 22%. A significantly higher prevalence was found in men (15.6%) compared with women (2.6%), reaching up to 35% in men from one community. All but one isolates were classified as subtype B. Warao's HIV-1 subtype-B epidemic resulted from a single viral introduction at around the early 2000s. After an initial phase of slow growth, the subtype B started to spread at a fast rate (0.8/year) following two major routes of migration within the communities.

CONCLUSION

A dramatic high prevalence was documented in almost all the communities of Warao Amerindians from the Orinoco Delta tested for HIV-1 infection. This epidemic resulted from the dissemination of a single HIV-1 subtype B founder strain introduced about 10 years ago and its size is probably doubling every year, creating a situation that can be devastating for this vulnerable Amerindian group.

Molecular diversity of HIV-1 among people who inject drugs in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia: massive expansion of circulating recombinant form (CRF) 33_01B and emergence of multiple unique recombinant clusters

Since the discovery of HIV-1 circulating recombinant form (CRF) 33_01B in Malaysia in the early 2000 s, continuous genetic diversification and active recombination involving CRF33_01B and other circulating genotypes in the region including CRF01_AE and subtype B' of Thai origin, have led to the emergence of novel CRFs and unique recombinant forms. The history and magnitude of CRF33_01B transmission among various risk groups including people who inject drugs (PWID) however have not been investigated despite the high epidemiological impact of CRF33_01B in the region. We update the most recent molecular epidemiology of HIV-1 among PWIDs recruited in Malaysia between 2010 and 2011 by population sequencing and phylogenetic analysis of 128 gag-pol sequences. HIV-1 CRF33_01B was circulating among 71% of PWIDs whilst a lower prevalence of other previously dominant HIV-1 genotypes [subtype B' (11%) and CRF01_AE (5%)] and CRF01_AE/B' unique recombinants (13%) were detected, indicating a significant shift in genotype replacement in this population. Three clusters of CRF01_AE/B' recombinants displaying divergent yet phylogenetically-related mosaic genomes to CRF33_01B were identified and characterized, suggestive of an abrupt emergence of multiple novel CRF clades. Using rigorous maximum likelihood approach and the Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling of CRF33_01Bpol sequences to elucidate the past population dynamics, we found that the founder lineages of CRF33_01B were likely to have first emerged among PWIDs in the early 1990 s before spreading exponentially to various high and low-risk populations (including children who acquired infections from their mothers) and later on became endemic around the early 2000 s. Taken together, our findings provide notable genetic evidence indicating the widespread expansion of CRF33_01B among PWIDs and into the general population. The emergence of numerous previously unknown recombinant clades highlights the escalating genetic complexity of HIV-1 in the Southeast Asian region.

Molecular epidemiology of recent HIV-1 infections in southern Poland

The genetic diversity of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) offers an opportunity to track the development of the epidemic across different populations. Viral pol gene fragments from 55 individuals of Polish origin with recent HIV-1 infection identified in 2008-2010 in four Polish cities were analyzed. Viral sequences were compared with sequences from 100 individuals (reference group) infected before 2004. Viral spread among groups with different HIV transmission categories was compared using a phylogenetic approach. The majority of sequences from individuals with recent infection were subtype B (93%) within which four transmission clusters (18% of samples) were detected. Samples from men infected through sex between men and from persons infected through injecting drugs were broadly separated (P < 0.0001), while samples from individuals infected by heterosexual contacts were dispersed uniformly within phylogenetic tree (P = 0.244) inferred from viral sequences derived from individuals infected recently and the reference group. The percentage of samples from persons infected by heterosexual contacts which clustered with samples from men infected through sex between men was not significantly higher for those with recent infection (47%), compared to the reference group (36%). In conclusion, men infected by sex between men and individuals infected through injecting drugs appear to form separate HIV transmission networks in Poland. The recent spread of HIV-1 among persons infected with subtype B by heterosexual contacts appears to be linked to both these groups.

Viral phylodynamics

Viral phylodynamics is defined as the study of how epidemiological, immunological, and evolutionary processes act and potentially interact to shape viralphylogenies. Since the coining of the term in 2004, research on viral phylodynamics has focused on transmission dynamics in an effort to shed light on how these dynamics impact viral genetic variation. Transmission dynamics can be considered at the level of cells within an infected host, individual hosts within a population, or entire populations of hosts. Many viruses, especially RNA viruses, rapidly accumulate genetic variation because of short generation times and high mutation rates. Patterns of viral genetic variation are therefore heavily influenced by how quickly transmission occurs and by which entities transmit to one another. Patterns of viral genetic variation will also be affected by selection acting on viral phenotypes. Although viruses can differ with respect to many phenotypes, phylodynamic studies have to date tended to focus on a limited number of viral phenotypes. These include virulence phenotypes, phenotypes associated with viral transmissibility, cell or tissue tropism phenotypes, and antigenic phenotypes that can facilitate escape from host immunity. Due to the impact that transmission dynamics and selection can have on viral genetic variation, viral phylogenies can therefore be used to investigate important epidemiological, immunological, and evolutionary processes, such as epidemic spread[2], spatio-temporal dynamics including metapopulation dynamics[3], zoonotic transmission, tissue tropism[4], and antigenic drift[5]. The quantitative investigation of these processes through the consideration of viral phylogenies is the central aim of viral phylodynamics.

Population dynamics of HIV-2 in rural West Africa: comparison with HIV-1 and ongoing transmission at the heart of the epidemic

OBJECTIVES

To compare the population dynamics of HIV-2 and HIV-1, and to characterize ongoing HIV-2 transmission in rural Guinea-Bissau.

DESIGN

Phylogenetic and phylodynamic analyses using HIV-2 gag and env, and HIV-1 env sequences, combined with epidemiological data from a community cohort.

METHODS

Samples were obtained from surveys in 1989-1991, 1996-1997, 2003 and 2006-2007. Phylogenies were reconstructed using sequences from 103 HIV-2-infected and 56 HIV-1-infected patients using Bayesian Evolutionary Analysis by Sampling Trees (BEAST), a relaxed molecular clock and a Bayesian skyline coalescent model.

RESULTS

Bayesian skyline plots showed a strong increase in the 1990s of the HIV-1 effective population size (Ne) in the same period that the Ne of HIV-2 came into a plateau phase. The population dynamics of both viruses were remarkably similar following initial introduction. Incident infections were found more often in HIV-2 transmission clusters, with 55-58% of all individuals contributing to ongoing transmission. Some phylogenetically linked sexual partners had discordant viral loads (undetectable vs. detectable), suggesting host factors dictate the risk of disease progression in HIV-2. Multiple HIV-2 introductions into the cohort are evident, but ongoing transmission has occurred predominantly within the community.

CONCLUSION

Comparison of HIV-1 and HIV-2 phylodynamics in the same community suggests both viruses followed similar growth patterns following introduction, and is consistent with the hypothesis that HIV-1 may have played a role in the decline of HIV-2 via competitive exclusion. The source of ongoing HIV-2 transmission in the cohort appears to be new HIV-2 cases, rather than the pool of older infections established during the early growth of HIV-2.

Estimating the origin and evolution characteristics for Korean HIV type 1 subtype B using Bayesian phylogenetic analysis

The majority of Korean human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) isolates are composed of the Korean clade B strain that is distinct from the subtype B prevalent in North America and Europe. However, it is still not clear how HIV-1 was introduced, transmitted, and evolved within the Korean population. To identify the evolutionary characteristics of Korean HIV-1, we estimate the molecular epidemic history of HIV-1 subtype B gp120 env in Korea in comparison with sequences isolated from other geographic locations. A Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) statistical inference was used to estimate the time of divergence of subtype B. The estimated time of divergence of subtype B and the distinct monophyletic Korean B cluster was estimated to be in the early and mid-1960s, respectively. Substitution rates were estimated at 7.3×10(-3) and 8.0×10(-3) substitutions per site per year for HIV-1 subtype B and Korean clade B, respectively. The demographic dynamics of two Korean data sets showed that the effective number of infections in Korea increased rapidly until the early 1980s, and then the rate only slowly increased until the mid-1990s when the population growth approached a steady-state. These results suggest that the growth rate of prevalent HIV-1 strains in Korea was lower than in other countries, suggesting that the evolution of HIV-1 Korean clade B was relatively slow. Furthermore, the limited transmission of HIV-1 within the Korean population likely led to the independent evolution of this virus to form the HIV-1 Korean clade B.

The HIV Epidemic: High-Income Countries

The HIV epidemic in higher-income nations is driven by receptive anal intercourse, injection drug use through needle/syringe sharing, and, less efficiently, vaginal intercourse. Alcohol and noninjecting drug use increase sexual HIV vulnerability. Appropriate diagnostic screening has nearly eliminated blood/blood product-related transmissions and, with antiretroviral therapy, has reduced mother-to-child transmission radically. Affected subgroups have changed over time (e.g., increasing numbers of Black and minority ethnic men who have sex with men). Molecular phylogenetic approaches have established historical links between HIV strains from central Africa to those in the United States and thence to Europe. However, Europe did not just receive virus from the United States, as it was also imported from Africa directly. Initial introductions led to epidemics in different risk groups in Western Europe distinguished by viral clades/sequences, and likewise, more recent explosive epidemics linked to injection drug use in Eastern Europe are associated with specific strains. Recent developments in phylodynamic approaches have made it possible to obtain estimates of sequence evolution rates and network parameters for epidemics.

Molecular typing of the recently expanding subtype B HIV-1 epidemic in Romania: evidence for local spread among MSMs in Bucharest area

HIV-1 subtype B is predominant in Europe except in some countries from Eastern Europe which are characterized by a high prevalence of non-B subtypes and circulating recombinant forms (CRFs). Romania is a particular case: the HIV-1 epidemic started with subtype F1 which is still the most prevalent. Previous studies have shown an increasing prevalence of subtype B which is the second most frequent one among the newly diagnosed individuals, followed by subtype C and several CRFs as well as unique recombinant forms (URFs). Our objective was to analyze in detail the characteristics (way of dispersal, association with transmission risk groups) of the subtype B infections in Romania by means of phylogenetic analysis. Among all the individuals sampled during 2003-2010, 71 out of 1127 patients (6.3%) have been identified to be infected with subtype B strains. The most frequent route of infection identified in HIV-1 subtype B patients in Romania was MSM transmission (39.6%), followed by the heterosexual route (35.2%). Many of the patients acquired the infection abroad, mainly in Western European countries. Phylogenetic analysis indicated the existence of a local transmission network (monophyletic clade) including 14 patients, mainly MSM living in the Bucharest area. We estimate the origin of the local transmission network that dates at the beginning of the 90s; the introduction of the F1 and C subtypes occurred earlier. The rest of the sequences were intermixed with reference strains sampled across Europe suggesting that single infection were not followed by subsequent dispersal within the local population. Although HIV-1 subtype B epidemic in Romania is recent, there is evidence for local spread among the MSMs, in addition to multiple introductions.

Genetic diversity and molecular epidemiology of HIV transmission

The high genetic diversity of HIV is one of its most significant features, as it has consequences in global distribution, vaccine design, therapy success, disease progression, transmissibility and viral load testing. Studying HIV diversity helps to understand its origins, migration patterns, current distribution and transmission events. New advances in sequencing technologies based on the parallel acquisition of data are now used to characterize within-host and population processes in depth. Additionally, we have seen similar advances in statistical methods designed to model the past history of lineages (the phylodynamic framework) to ultimately gain better insights into the evolutionary history of HIV. We can, for example, estimate population size changes, lineage dispersion over geographic areas and epidemiological parameters solely from sequence data. In this article, we review some of the evolutionary approaches used to study transmission patterns and processes in HIV and the insights gained from such studies.

The evolution of HIV: inferences using phylogenetics

Molecular phylogenetics has revolutionized the study of not only evolution but also disparate fields such as genomics, bioinformatics, epidemiology, ecology, microbiology, molecular biology and biochemistry. Particularly significant are its achievements in population genetics as a result of the development of coalescent theory, which have contributed to more accurate model-based parameter estimation and explicit hypothesis testing. The study of the evolution of many microorganisms, and HIV in particular, have benefited from these new methodologies. HIV is well suited for such sophisticated population analyses because of its large population sizes, short generation times, high substitution rates and relatively small genomes. All these factors make HIV an ideal and fascinating model to study molecular evolution in real time. Here we review the significant advances made in HIV evolution through the application of phylogenetic approaches. We first examine the relative roles of mutation and recombination on the molecular evolution of HIV and its adaptive response to drug therapy and tissue allocation. We then review some of the fundamental questions in HIV evolution in relation to its origin and diversification and describe some of the insights gained using phylogenies. Finally, we show how phylogenetic analysis has advanced our knowledge of HIV dynamics (i.e., phylodynamics).

Reviewing the history of HIV-1: spread of subtype B in the Americas

The dispersal of HIV-1 subtype B (HIV-1B) is a reflection of the movement of human populations in response to social, political, and geographical issues. The initial dissemination of HIV-1B outside Africa seems to have included the passive involvement of human populations from the Caribbean in spreading the virus to the United States. However, the exact pathways taken during the establishment of the pandemic in the Americas remain unclear. Here, we propose a geographical scenario for the dissemination of HIV-1B in the Americas, based on phylogenetic and genetic statistical analyses of 313 available sequences of the pol gene from 27 countries. Maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference methods were used to explore the phylogenetic relationships between HIV-1B sequences, and molecular variance estimates were analyzed to infer the genetic structure of the viral population. We found that the initial dissemination and subsequent spread of subtype B in the Americas occurred via a single introduction event in the Caribbean around 1964 (1950–1967). Phylogenetic trees present evidence of several primary outbreaks in countries in South America, directly seeded by the Caribbean epidemic. Cuba is an exception insofar as its epidemic seems to have been introduced from South America. One clade comprising isolates from different countries emerged in the most-derived branches, reflecting the intense circulation of the virus throughout the American continents. Statistical analysis supports the genetic compartmentalization of the virus among the Americas, with a close relationship between the South American and Caribbean epidemics. These findings reflect the complex establishment of the HIV-1B pandemic and contribute to our understanding between the migration process of human populations and virus diffusion.

The Use of Bioinformatics for Studying HIV Evolutionary and Epidemiological History in South America

The South American human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) epidemic is driven by several subtypes (B, C, and F1) and circulating and unique recombinant forms derived from those subtypes. Those variants are heterogeneously distributed around the continent in a country-specific manner. Despite some inconsistencies mainly derived from sampling biases and analytical constrains, most of studies carried out in the area agreed in pointing out specificities in the evolutionary dynamics of the circulating HIV-1 lineages. In this paper, we covered the theoretical basis, and the application of bioinformatics methods to reconstruct the HIV spatial-temporal dynamics, unveiling relevant information to understand the origin, geographical dissemination and the current molecular scenario of the HIV epidemic in the continent, particularly in the countries of Southern Cone.

Origin and dynamics of HIV-1 subtype C infection in India

Objective

To investigate the geographical origin and evolution dynamics of HIV-1 subtype C infection in India.

Design

Ninety HIV-1 subtype C env gp120 subtype C sequences from India were compared with 312 env gp120 reference subtype C sequences from 27 different countries obtained from Los Alamos HIV database. All the HIV-1 subtype C env gp120 sequences from India were used for the geographical origin analysis and 61 subtype C env gp120 sequences with known sampling year (from 1991 to 2008) were employed to determine the origin of HIV infection in India.

Methods

Phylogenetic analysis of HIV-1 env sequences was used to investigate the geographical origin and tMRCA of Indian HIV-1 subtype C. Evolutionary parameters including origin date and demographic growth patterns of Indian subtype C were estimated using a Bayesian coalescent-based approach under relaxed molecular clock models.

Findings

The majority of the analyzed Indian and South African HIV-1 subtype C sequences formed a single monophyletic cluster. The most recent common ancestor date was calculated to be 1975.56 (95% HPD, 1968.78–1981.52). Reconstruction of the effective population size revealed three phases of epidemic growth: an initial slow growth, followed by exponential growth, and then a plateau phase approaching present time. Stabilization of the epidemic growth phase correlated with the foundation of National AIDS Control Organization in India.

Interpretation

Indian subtype C originated from a single South African lineage in the middle of 1970s. The current study emphasizes not only the utility of HIV-1 sequence data for epidemiological studies but more notably highlights the effectiveness of community or government intervention strategies in controlling the trend of the epidemic.

Identification of a current hot spot of HIV type 1 transmission in Mongolia by molecular epidemiological analysis

We investigated the current molecular epidemiological status of HIV-1 in Mongolia, a country with very low incidence of HIV-1 though with rapid expansion in recent years. HIV-1 pol (1065 nt) and env (447 nt) genes were sequenced to construct phylogenetic trees. The evolutionary rates, molecular clock phylogenies, and other evolutionary parameters were estimated from heterochronous genomic sequences of HIV-1 subtype B by the Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo method. We obtained 41 sera from 56 reported HIV-1-positive cases as of May 2009. The main route of infection was men who have sex with men (MSM). Dominant subtypes were subtype B in 32 cases (78%) followed by subtype CRF02_AG (9.8%). The phylogenetic analysis of the pol gene identified two clusters in subtype B sequences. Cluster 1 consisted of 21 cases including MSM and other routes of infection, and cluster 2 consisted of eight MSM cases. The tree analyses demonstrated very short branch lengths in cluster 1, suggesting a surprisingly active expansion of HIV-1 transmission during a short period with the same ancestor virus. Evolutionary analysis indicated that the outbreak started around the early 2000s. This study identified a current hot spot of HIV-1 transmission and potential seed of the epidemic in Mongolia. Comprehensive preventive measures targeting this group are urgently needed.

Analysis of HIV type 1 BF recombinant sequences from South America dates the origin of CRF12_BF to a recombination event in the 1970s

HIV-1 epidemics in South America are believed to have originated in part from the subtype B epidemic initiated in the Caribbean/North America region. However, circulation of BF recombinants in similar proportions was extensively reported. Information currently shows that many BF recombinants share a recombination structure similar to that found in the CRF12_BF. In the present study, analyzing a set of 405 HIV sequences, we identified the most likely origin of the BF epidemic in an early event of recombination. We found that the subtype B epidemics in South America analyzed in the present study were initiated by a founder event that occurred in the early 1970s, a few years after the introduction of these strains in the Americas. Regarding the F/BF recombinant epidemics, by analyzing a subtype F genomic segment within the viral gene gag present in the majority of the BF recombinants, we found evidence of a geographic divergence very soon after the introduction of subtype F strains in South America. Moreover, through analysis of a subtype B segment present in all the CRF12_BF-like recombination structure, we estimated the circulation of the subtype B strain that gave rise to that recombinant structure around the same time period estimated for the introduction of subtype F strains. The HIV epidemics in South America were initiated in part through a founder event driven by subtype B strains coming from the previously established epidemic in the north of the continent. A second introduction driven by subtype F strains is likely to have encountered the incipient subtype B epidemic that soon after their arrival recombined with them, originating the BF epidemic in the region. These results may explain why in South America the majority of F sequences are found as BF recombinants.

Analysis of the origin and evolutionary history of HIV-1 CRF28_BF and CRF29_BF reveals a decreasing prevalence in the AIDS epidemic of Brazil

BACKGROUND

HIV-1 subtype B and subtype F are prevalent in the AIDS epidemic of Brazil. Recombinations between these subtypes have generated at least four BF circulating recombinant forms (CRFs). CRF28_BF and CRF29_BF are among the first two BF recombinants being identified in Brazil and they contributed significantly to the epidemic. However, the evolution and demographic histories of the CRFs are unclear.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

A collection of gag and pol sequences sampled within Brazil was screened for CRF28_BF-like and CRF29_BF-like recombination patterns. A Bayesian coalescent framework was employed to delineate the phylogenetic, divergence time and population dynamics of the virus having CRF28_BF-like and CRF29_BF-like genotype. These recombinants were phylogenetically related to each other and formed a well-supported monophyletic clade dated to 1988-1989. The effective number of infections by these recombinants grew exponentially over a five-year period after their emergence, but then decreased toward the present following a logistic model of population growth. The demographic pattern of both recombinants closely resembles those previously reported for CRF31_BC.

CONCLUSIONS

We revealed that HIV-1 recombinants of the CRF28_BF/CRF29_BF clade are still circulating in the Brazilian population. These recombinants did not exhibit a strong founder effect and showed a decreasing prevalence in the AIDS epidemic of Brazil. Our data suggested that multiple URFs may also play a role in shaping the epidemic of recombinant BF HIV-1 in the region.

Population dynamics of HIV-1 subtype B in a cohort of men-having-sex-with-men in Rome, Italy

A recent increase in HIV diagnoses among men-having-sex-with-men (MSM) has been shown by surveillance data from Europe and Italy, and new approaches to inferring viral population dynamics from heterochronously sampled gene sequences have been developed. The aim of this study was to reconstruct the epidemiological history of HIV-1 subtype B in a homogeneous group of Italian MSM using a coalescent-based Bayesian framework. A total of 125 HIV-1 subtype B pol sequences were analyzed using Bayesian methods and a relaxed molecular clock to reconstruct their dated phylogeny and estimate population dynamics. At least 10 epidemiological clusters of 3-9 isolates were identified: half including the largest clades originated in the early 1990s and the other half radiated from 1999. Demographic analysis showed that the HIV epidemic grew in accordance with a logistic model characterized by a rapid exponential increase in the effective number of infections (r = 1.54 year) starting from the early 1980s and reaching a plateau 10 years later. Our data suggest that the HIV B epidemic entered our MSM population through multiple transmission chains about 20 years later than in other Western European country. Epidemiological clusters originating in the early 2000s suggest a recent re-emergence of HIV in Italian MSM.

Constraints on HIV-1 diversity from protein structure

The high rate of HIV-1 evolution contributes to immune escape, enables the virus to escape drug therapy, and may underlie the difficulty of producing an effective vaccine. Identifying constraints on HIV evolution is therefore of prime importance. To investigate this problem, we examined the relationships between sequence diversity, selection, and protein structure. We found that while there was an increase in sequence diversity over time, this variation had a tendency to be limited to specific structural regions. When individual sites were analyzed, there was, in contrast, substantial and widespread evolutionary constraint over gag and env. This constraint was present even in the highly variable envelope proteins. The evolutionary significance of an individual site is indicated by the change in selection pressure along the time course: increasing entropy indicates that the site is evolving predominantly in a more "clock"-like manner, low entropy values with no increase indicate a high degree of constraint, and high entropy values indicate a lack of constraint. Few sites display high degrees of turnover. Mapping these sites onto the three-dimensional protein structure, we found a significant difference between evolutionary rates for regions buried in the core of the protein and those on the surface. This constraint did not change over the time period analyzed and was not subtype dependent, as similar results were found for subtypes B and C. This link between sequence and structure not only demonstrates the limits of recent HIV-1 evolution but also highlights the origins of evolutionary constraint on viral change.

Viral phylodynamics and the search for an 'effective number of infections'

Information on the dynamics of the effective population size over time can be obtained from the analysis of phylogenies, through the application of time-varying coalescent models. This approach has been used to study the dynamics of many different viruses, and has demonstrated a wide variety of patterns, which have been interpreted in the context of changes over time in the ‘effective number of infections’, a quantity proportional to the number of infected individuals. However, for infectious diseases, the rate of coalescence is driven primarily by new transmissions i.e. the incidence, and only indirectly by the number of infected individuals through sampling effects. Using commonly used epidemiological models, we show that the coalescence rate may indeed reflect the number of infected individuals during the initial phase of exponential growth when time is scaled by infectivity, but in general, a single change in time scale cannot be used to estimate the number of infected individuals. This has important implications when integrating phylogenetic data in the context of other epidemiological data.

Phylodynamics of HIV-1 circulating recombinant forms 12_BF and 38_BF in Argentina and Uruguay

Background

Although HIV-1 CRF12_BF and CRF38_BF are two epidemiologically important recombinant lineages circulating in Argentina and Uruguay, little is known about their population dynamics.

Methods

A total of 120 "CRF12_BF-like" and 20 "CRF38_BF-like" pol recombinant sequences collected in Argentina and Uruguay from 1997 to 2009 were subjected to phylogenetic and Bayesian coalescent-based analyses to estimate evolutionary and demographic parameters.

Results

Phylogenetic analyses revealed that CRF12_BF viruses from Argentina and Uruguay constitute a single epidemic with multiple genetic exchanges among countries; whereas circulation of the CRF38_BF seems to be confined to Uruguay. The mean estimated substitution rate of CRF12_BF at pol gene (2.5 × 10-3 substitutions/site/year) was similar to that previously described for subtype B. According to our estimates, CRF12_BF and CRF38_BF originated at 1983 (1978-1988) and 1986 (1981-1990), respectively. After their emergence, the CRF12_BF and CRF38_BF epidemics seem to have experienced a period of rapid expansion with initial growth rates of around 1.2 year^-1 and 0.9 year^-1, respectively. Later, the rate of spread of these CRFs_BF seems to have slowed down since the mid-1990s.

Conclusions

Our results suggest that CRF12_BF and CRF38_BF viruses were generated during the 1980s, shortly after the estimated introduction of subtype F1 in South America (~1975-1980). After an initial phase of fast exponential expansion, the rate of spread of both CRFs_BF epidemics seems to have slowed down, thereby following a demographic pattern that resembles those previously reported for the HIV-1 epidemics in Brazil, USA, and Western Europe.

Evolutionary genetics of human enterovirus 71: origin, population dynamics, natural selection, and seasonal periodicity of the VP1 gene

Human enterovirus 71 (EV-71) is one of the major etiologic causes of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) among young children worldwide, with fatal instances of neurological complications becoming increasingly common. Global VP1 capsid sequences (n = 628) sampled over 4 decades were collected and subjected to comprehensive evolutionary analysis using a suite of phylogenetic and population genetic methods. We estimated that the common ancestor of human EV-71 likely emerged around 1941 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1929 to 1952), subsequently diverging into three genogroups: B, C, and the now extinct genogroup A. Genealogical analysis revealed that diverse lineages of genogroup B and C (subgenogroups B1 to B5 and C1 to C5) have each circulated cryptically in the human population for up to 5 years before causing large HFMD outbreaks, indicating the quiescent persistence of EV-71 in human populations. Estimated phylogenies showed a complex pattern of spatial structure within well-sampled subgenogroups, suggesting endemicity with occasional lineage migration among locations, such that past HFMD epidemics are unlikely to be linked to continuous transmission of a single strain of virus. In addition, rises in genetic diversity are correlated with the onset of epidemics, driven in part by the emergence of novel EV-71 subgenogroups. Using subgenogroup C1 as a model, we observe temporal strain replacement through time, and we investigate the evidence for positive selection at VP1 immunogenic sites. We discuss the consequences of the evolutionary dynamics of EV-71 for vaccine design and compare its phylodynamic behavior with that of influenza virus.

The evolutionary rate dynamically tracks changes in HIV-1 epidemics: application of a simple method for optimizing the evolutionary rate in phylogenetic trees with longitudinal data

Large-sequence datasets provide an opportunity to investigate the dynamics of pathogen epidemics. Thus, a fast method to estimate the evolutionary rate from large and numerous phylogenetic trees becomes necessary. Based on minimizing tip height variances, we optimize the root in a given phylogenetic tree to estimate the most homogenous evolutionary rate between samples from at least two different time points. Simulations showed that the method had no bias in the estimation of evolutionary rates and that it was robust to tree rooting and topological errors. We show that the evolutionary rates of HIV-1 subtype B and C epidemics have changed over time, with the rate of evolution inversely correlated to the rate of virus spread. For subtype B, the evolutionary rate slowed down and tracked the start of the HAART era in 1996. Subtype C in Ethiopia showed an increase in the evolutionary rate when the prevalence increase markedly slowed down in 1995. Thus, we show that the evolutionary rate of HIV-1 on the population level dynamically tracks epidemic events.

Short communication: Evidences of recent decline in the expansion rate of the HIV type 1 subtype C and CRF31_BC epidemics in southern Brazil

The HIV-1 epidemic in southern Brazil is characterized by the high prevalence of subtype C and CRF31_BC infections but little is known about the population dynamics of these strains over time. We used a total of 82 env and 72 pol HIV-1 subtype C sequences collected from 1991 to 2006 and 47 pol CRF31_BC sequences collected from 1998 to 2006 from Brazilian patients to reconstruct the demographic history of these HIV-1 strains. Estimations of demographic history were performed using a Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo coalescent-based approach as implemented in the BEAST program. Our analyses indicate that subtype C and CRF31_BC epidemics experienced an initial period of fast exponential spread in the southern Brazilian population during the 1980s and early 1990s, but the spreading rate of these epidemics seems to have slowed down since the middle 1990s. The initial mean exponential growth rate of the subtype C epidemic was estimated to be around 0.70-0.90/year, whereas the estimated population growth rate of CRF31_BC was 1.3/year, more than two times higher than that previously described for this CRF. These results suggest for the first time that the growth rate of subtype C and CRF31_BC epidemics has been changing over time in southern Brazil with evidence for a deceleration in recent years. During the expansion phase, the CRF31_BC seems to have spread at a rate much higher than Brazilian parental subtypes B and C.

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 subtypes prevalence in central China

PURPOSE

To study the epidemic characteristics, transmission sources and routes of various subtypes of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) and sequence variations in Henan, central China. To provide theoretical foundation for Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) prevention strategy in this region where the primary HIV transmission route was through former paid blood donation.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

HIV-1 gene env and gag were amplified by nested polymerase chain reaction (PCR) from uncultured peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) obtained from 1,287 HIV-1 confirmed samples in Henan.

RESULTS

Among 1,287 samples, 5 HIV-1 strains were found including subtypes B' (95.9%), C (0.47%) and recombinant subtypes CRF 07_BC (1.09%), CRF 08_BC (1.79%) and CRF 01_AE (0.78%). Phylogenetic tree analysis found that 1,234 Henan subtype B' were closely related to those commonly found in Thailand, and were distantly related to other international subtypes. The dominant strain in former blood plasma donors (FPDs) was subtype B', and the dominant strains in sexual transmission were subtype B' and BC. Among HIV patients who were most likely infected through routes other than paid blood donation, the percentage of non-B' subtypes was much higher than those of FPD.

CONCLUSION

These findings suggest that the prevailing strain of HIV-1 in Henan is subtype B', similar to the B' subtype found in Thailand. In addition, for the first time we found subtypes C and recombinant subtypes CRF07_BC, CRF08_BC and CRF01_AE in this region. Indicating that the subtype feature of HIV-1 became more complicated than before in central China.

Quantifying differences in the tempo of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 subtype evolution

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) genetic diversity, due to its high evolutionary rate, has long been identified as a main cause of problems in the development of an efficient HIV-1 vaccine. However, little is known about differences in evolutionary rate between different subtypes. In this study, we collected representative samples of the main epidemic subtypes and circulating recombinant forms (CRFs), namely, sub-subtype A1, subtypes B, C, D, and G, and CRFs 01_AE and 02_AG. We analyzed separate data sets for pol and env. We performed a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo relaxed-clock phylogenetic analysis and applied a codon model to the resulting phylogenetic trees to estimate nonsynonymous (dN) and synonymous (dS) rates along each and every branch. We found important differences in the evolutionary rates of the different subtypes. These are due to differences not only in the dN rate but also in the dS rate, varying in roughly similar ways, indicating that these differences are caused by both different selective pressures (for dN rate) and the replication dynamics (for dS rate) (i.e., mutation rate or generation time) of the strains. CRF02_AG and subtype G had higher rates, while subtype D had lower dN and dS rates than the other subtypes. The dN/dS ratio estimates were also different, especially for the env gene, with subtype G showing the lowest dN/dS ratio of all subtypes.

Phylodynamics of infectious disease epidemics

We present a formalism for unifying the inference of population size from genetic sequences and mathematical models of infectious disease in populations. Virus phylogenies have been used in many recent studies to infer properties of epidemics. These approaches rely on coalescent models that may not be appropriate for infectious diseases. We account for phylogenetic patterns of viruses in susceptible-infected (SI), susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS), and susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) models of infectious disease, and our approach may be a viable alternative to demographic models used to reconstruct epidemic dynamics. The method allows epidemiological parameters, such as the reproductive number, to be estimated directly from viral sequence data. We also describe patterns of phylogenetic clustering that are often construed as arising from a short chain of transmissions. Our model reproduces the moments of the distribution of phylogenetic cluster sizes and may therefore serve as a null hypothesis for cluster sizes under simple epidemiological models. We examine a small cross-sectional sample of human immunodeficiency (HIV)-1 sequences collected in the United States and compare our results to standard estimates of effective population size. Estimated prevalence is consistent with estimates of effective population size and the known history of the HIV epidemic. While our model accurately estimates prevalence during exponential growth, we find that periods of decline are harder to identify.