When is a study result important for athletes, clinicians and team coaches/staff?

Time-loss Injuries among Female and Male Spanish Rink Hockey Players

The present study describes the time-loss injuries among female and male athletes of the Spanish rink hockey league during the 2021/22 season.We performed a retrospective cohort study on time-loss injuries, whereby the athlete is prevented from participating in a training session or game because of the injury.A total of 463 athletes were included, with 326 (70.4%) senior male and 137 (29.6%) female. Two hundred and eighty-two time-loss injuries were recorded, the most common form being muscle injuries (112 episodes, 39.7%), especially those affecting the hip adductor muscles (52 episodes, 46.4% of muscle injuries). Most injuries were classified as mild (1-7 days of time-loss) and the median return-to-play was 9.5 days (range 1-180).Injury patterns were compared according to gender, position and moment: the results showed significant differences between senior males and females, between field players and goalkeepers, as well as between training and game, in terms of injury nature and type. The injury incidence proportion was significantly higher for field players compared to goalkeepers), and senior males had a significantly higher risk than senior females.The present study provides a starting point for studying and preventing injuries in rink hockey athletes.

Intrinsic variables associated with low back pain and lumbar spine injury in fast bowlers in cricket: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Lumbar spine injuries in fast bowlers account for the greatest missed playing time in cricket. A range of extrinsic and intrinsic variables are hypothesised to be associated with low back pain and lumbar spine injury in fast bowlers, and an improved understanding of intrinsic variables is necessary as these may alter load tolerance and injury risk associated with fast bowling. This review critically evaluated studies reporting intrinsic variables associated with low back pain and lumbar spine injury in fast bowlers and identified areas for future investigation.

METHODS

OVID Medline, EMBASE, SPORTDiscus, CINAHL, Web of Science and SCOPUS databases were last searched on 3 June 2022 to identify studies investigating intrinsic variables associated with low back pain and lumbar spine injury in cricket fast bowlers. Terms relevant to cricket fast bowling, and intrinsic variables associated with lumbar spine injury and low back pain in fast bowlers were searched. 1,503 abstracts were screened, and 118 full-text articles were appraised to determine whether they met inclusion criteria. Two authors independently screened search results and assessed risk of bias using a modified version of the Quality in Prognostic Studies tool.

RESULTS

Twenty-five studies met the inclusion criteria. Overall, no included studies demonstrated a low risk of bias, two studies were identified as moderate risk, and twenty-three studies were identified as high risk. Conflicting results were reported amongst studies investigating associations of fast bowling kinematics and kinetics, trunk and lumbar anatomical features, anthropometric traits, age, and neuromuscular characteristics with low back pain and lumbar spine injury.

CONCLUSION

Inconsistencies in results may be related to differences in study design, injury definitions, participant characteristics, measurement parameters, and statistical analyses. Low back pain and lumbar spine injury occurrence in fast bowlers remain high, and this may be due to an absence of low bias studies that have informed recommendations for their prevention. Future research should employ clearly defined injury outcomes, analyse continuous datasets, utilise models that better represent lumbar kinematics and kinetics during fast bowling, and better quantify previous injury, lumbar anatomical features and lumbar maturation.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Open Science Framework https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/ERKZ2 .

P-value, compatibility, and S-value

Misinterpretations of P-values and 95% confidence intervals are ubiquitous in medical research. Specifically, the terms significance or confidence, extensively used in medical papers, ignore biases and violations of statistical assumptions and hence should be called overconfidence terms. In this paper, we present the compatibility view of P-values and confidence intervals; the P-value is interpreted as an index of compatibility between data and the model, including the test hypothesis and background assumptions, whereas a confidence interval is interpreted as the range of parameter values that are compatible with the data under background assumptions. We also suggest the use of a surprisal measure, often referred to as the S-value, a novel metric that transforms the P-value, for gauging compatibility in terms of an intuitive experiment of coin tossing.

Profiles of psychosocial factors: Can they be used to predict injury risk?

The creation of risk profiles using the model of stress and athletic injury (J Appl Sport Psychol. 1998;10(1):5) represents a proposed shift from the reductionism paradigm to the complex sport approach in an attempt to formulate prevention strategies to combat the increasing number of injuries being reported in sporting populations. As a result, the primary purpose of this study was to: (a) identify different risk profiles based on psychosocial factors associated with the Williams and Andersen's model of stress and athletic injury model; and (b) examine potential differences in the frequency of injuries across these risk profiles. A prospective research design was utilized with a sample of 117 competitive soccer players (81 males and 36 females) from Sweden and the United States of America. Data was collected at two time points over the course of three months. At time 1 (beginning of the season) - a demographic information sheet, the Life Event Survey for Collegiate Athletes (LESCA), Sport Competitive Anxiety Test (SCAT), and Brief Cope were administered. At time two (T2), three months after the initial data collection, participants' traumatic injuries were recorded. Latent profile analysis (LPA) showed that 3 profiles solution showed best fit to data. Players in profile 1 and 2 reported fewer injuries compared to players in profile 3. However, whereas individuals in profile 1 had a lower predictive risk of sustaining an injury when compared to those in profile 3, both profiles had similar anxiety levels and use of coping strategies with differing stress levels. These findings suggest that the interaction between different proposed risk factors might influence injury risk.

A CHecklist for statistical Assessment of Medical Papers (the CHAMP statement): explanation and elaboration

Misuse of statistics in medical and sports science research is common and may lead to detrimental consequences to healthcare. Many authors, editors and peer reviewers of medical papers will not have expert knowledge of statistics or may be unconvinced about the importance of applying correct statistics in medical research. Although there are guidelines on reporting statistics in medical papers, a checklist on the more general and commonly seen aspects of statistics to assess when peer-reviewing an article is needed. In this article, we propose a CHecklist for statistical Assessment of Medical Papers (CHAMP) comprising 30 items related to the design and conduct, data analysis, reporting and presentation, and interpretation of a research paper. While CHAMP is primarily aimed at editors and peer reviewers during the statistical assessment of a medical paper, we believe it will serve as a useful reference to improve authors' and readers' practice in their use of statistics in medical research. We strongly encourage editors and peer reviewers to consult CHAMP when assessing manuscripts for potential publication. Authors also may apply CHAMP to ensure the validity of their statistical approach and reporting of medical research, and readers may consider using CHAMP to enhance their statistical assessment of a paper.

Does sex affect second ACL injury risk? A systematic review with meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To determine sex-based differences in risk of a second ACL injury (overall and by laterality) following primary ACL reconstruction in athletes who are attempting to return to sport.

DESIGN

Systematic review with meta-analysis.

DATA SOURCES

Systematic search of five databases conducted in August 2019.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR SELECTING STUDIES

Studies reporting sex-based differences in the incidence of second ACL injury in athletes attempting to return-to-sports and who were followed for at least 1 year following primary ACL reconstruction.

RESULTS

Nineteen studies were included in this review, with seven studies excluded from the primary meta-analysis due to high risk of bias. The remaining 12 studies (n=1431 females, n=1513 males) underwent meta-analysis, with all 19 studies included in a sensitivity analysis. Total second ACL injury risk was 21.9% (females: 22.8%, males: 20.3%). Females were found to have 10.7% risk of an ipsilateral ACL injury and 11.8% risk of a contralateral ACL injury. Males were found to have 12.0% risk of an ipsilateral ACL injury and 8.7% risk of a contralateral ACL injury. No statistically significant differences were observed for total second ACL injury risk (risk difference=-0.6%, 95% CI -4.9 to 3.7, p=0.783, I²=41%) or contralateral ACL injury risk (risk difference=1.9%, 95% CI -0.5% to 4.4%, p=0.113, I²=15%) between sexes. Females were found to have a 3.4% absolute risk reduction in subsequent ipsilateral ACL injury risk compared with males (risk difference=-3.4%, 95% CI -6.7% to -0.02%, p=0.037, I²=35%).

CONCLUSION

Both sexes have >20% increased risk of experiencing a second ACL injury. Any difference in the absolute risk of either a subsequent ipsilateral or contralateral ACL injury between sexes appears to be small.

REGISTRATION

PROSPERO (CRD42020148369).

Training Load and Its Role in Injury Prevention, Part 2: Conceptual and Methodologic Pitfalls

In part 2 of this clinical commentary, we highlight the conceptual and methodologic pitfalls evident in current training-load-injury research. These limitations make these studies unsuitable for determining how to use new metrics such as acute workload, chronic workload, and their ratio for reducing injury risk. The main overarching concerns are the lack of a conceptual framework and reference models that do not allow for appropriate interpretation of the results to define a causal structure. The lack of any conceptual framework also gives investigators too many degrees of freedom, which can dramatically increase the risk of false discoveries and confirmation bias by forcing the interpretation of results toward common beliefs and accepted training principles. Specifically, we underline methodologic concerns relating to (1) measure of exposures, (2) pitfalls of using ratios, (3) training-load measures, (4) time windows, (5) discretization and reference category, (6) injury definitions, (7) unclear analyses, (8) sample size and generalizability, (9) missing data, and (10) standards and quality of reporting. Given the pitfalls of previous studies, we need to return to our practices before this research influx began, when practitioners relied on traditional training principles (eg, overload progression) and adjusted training loads based on athletes' responses. Training-load measures cannot tell us whether the variations are increasing or decreasing the injury risk; we recommend that practitioners still rely on their expert knowledge and experience.

Limited Support for Trunk and Hip Deficits as Risk Factors for Athletic Knee Injuries: A Systematic Review With Meta-analysis and Best-Evidence Synthesis

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether neuromuscular deficits in trunk and hip-related function are risk factors for athletic knee injuries.

DESIGN

Etiology systematic review with meta-analysis.

LITERATURE SEARCH

Six online databases (MEDLINE, Web of Science, Embase, CINAHL, Scopus, and SPORTDiscus) were searched up to April 2019.

STUDY SELECTION CRITERIA

Studies assessing trunk and hip neuromuscular function as risk factors for knee injuries in healthy athletic populations were included.

DATA SYNTHESIS

Outcomes were synthesized quantitatively using meta-analysis of odds ratios, and qualitatively using best-evidence synthesis.

RESULTS

Twenty-one studies met the inclusion criteria. There was very low-certainty evidence that greater hip external rotation strength protected against knee injuries (odds ratio = 0.78; 95% confidence interval: 0.70, 0.87; P<.05). There was limited evidence that deficits in trunk proprioception and neuromuscular control, and the combination of excessive knee valgus and ipsilateral trunk angle when landing unilaterally from a jump, may be risk factors for knee injuries.

CONCLUSION

Most variables of trunk and hip function were not risk factors for injuries. Further research is required to confirm whether hip external rotation strength, trunk proprioception and neuromuscular control, and the combination of knee valgus angle and ipsilateral trunk control are risk factors for future knee injuries. J Orthop Sports Phys Ther 2020;50(9):476-489. Epub 1 Aug 2020. doi:10.2519/jospt.2020.9705.

Statement on methods in sport injury research from the 1st METHODS MATTER Meeting, Copenhagen, 2019

High quality sports injury research can facilitate sports injury prevention and treatment. There is scope to improve how our field applies best practice methods—methods matter (greatly!). The 1st METHODS MATTER Meeting, held in January 2019 in Copenhagen, Denmark, was the forum for an international group of researchers with expertise in research methods to discuss sports injury methods. We discussed important epidemiological and statistical topics within the field of sports injury research. With this opinion document, we provide the main take-home messages that emerged from the meeting.

Statement on Methods in Sport Injury Research From the First METHODS MATTER Meeting, Copenhagen, 2019

High-quality sports injury research can facilitate sports injury prevention and treatment. There is scope to improve how our field applies best-practice methods-methods matter (greatly!). The first METHODS MATTER meeting, held in January 2019 in Copenhagen, Denmark, was the forum for an international group of researchers with expertise in research methods to discuss sports injury methods. We discussed important epidemiological and statistical topics within the field of sports injury research. With this opinion document, we provide the main take-home messages that emerged from the meeting. Meeting participants agreed that the definition of sport injury depends on the research question and context. It was considered essential to be explicit about the goal of the research effort and to use frameworks to illustrate the assumptions that underpin measurement and the analytical strategy. Complex systems were discussed to illustrate how potential risk factors can interact in a nonlinear way. This approach is often a useful alternative to identifying single risk factors. Investigating changes in exposure status over time is important when analyzing sport injury etiology, and analyzing recurrent injury, subsequent injury, or injury exacerbation remains challenging. The choice of statistical model should consider the research question, injury measure (eg, prevalence, incidence), type and granularity of injury data (categorical or continuous), and study design. Multidisciplinary collaboration will be a cornerstone for future high-quality sport injury research. Working outside professional silos in a diverse, multidisciplinary team benefits the research process, from the formulation of research questions and designs to the statistical analyses and dissemination of study results in implementation contexts. This article has been copublished in the British Journal of Sports Medicine and the Journal of Orthopaedic & Sports Physical Therapy. J Orthop Sports Phys Ther 2020;50(5):226-233. doi:10.2519/jospt.2020.9876.

Associations between biomechanical and clinical/anthropometrical factors and running-related injuries among recreational runners: a 52-week prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

The purpose of this exploratory study was to investigate whether runners with certain biomechanical or clinical/anthropometrical characteristics sustain more running-related injuries than runners with other biomechanical or clinical/anthropometrical characteristics.

METHODS

The study was designed as a prospective cohort with 52-weeks follow-up. A total of 224 injury-free, recreational runners were recruited from the Gothenburg Half Marathon and tested at baseline. The primary exposure variables were biomechanical and clinical/anthropometrical measures, including strength, lower extremity kinematics, joint range of motion, muscle flexibility, and trigger points. The primary outcome measure was any running-related injury diagnosed by a medical practitioner. Cumulative risk difference was used as measure of association. A shared frailty approach was used with legs as the unit of interest. A total of 448 legs were included in the analyses.

RESULTS

The cumulative injury incidence proportion for legs was 29.0% (95%CI = 24.0%; 34.8%). A few biomechanical and clinical/anthropometrical factors influence the number of running-related injuries sustained in recreational runners. Runners with a late timing of maximal eversion sustained 20.7% (95%CI = 1.3; 40.0) more injuries, and runners with weak abductors in relation to adductors sustained 17.3% (95%CI = 0.8; 33.7) more injuries, compared with the corresponding reference group.

CONCLUSIONS

More injuries are likely to occur in runners with late timing of maximal eversion or weak hip abductors in relation to hip adductors.

Hop Testing Lacks Strong Association With Key Outcome Variables After Primary Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Single-legged hop tests are commonly used assessments in return to sport (RTS) testing after anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction (ACLR). Although these tests are commonly used, their predictive validity has not yet been established.

PURPOSE

To determine the strength of association between hop testing and RTS, knee reinjury, subjective report of knee function, and posttraumatic knee osteoarthritis (PTOA) after primary ACLR. Secondarily, to determine whether hop testing is able to predict a favorable result on the same outcome variables.

STUDY DESIGN

Systematic review.

METHODS

A systematic, computer-assisted literature search was performed in PubMed/MEDLINE, CINAHL, EMBASE, SPORTDiscus, Cochrane Library, and ClinicalTrials.gov. The PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) guidelines were followed when conducting and reporting this review. Primary outcome variables for this review were self-report of knee function, return to preinjury level of activity, presence of reinjury, and presence of PTOA. The Oxford Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine Levels of Evidence tool was used to assess the level of evidence for each included study. Quality assessment of each included study was performed through use of a modified Downs and Black scale. Available metrics were tabulated based on outcome variables.

RESULTS

Overall, 21 studies (4476 patients) met inclusion for this review. The majority of evidence (95.2%) was of moderate to high methodologic quality. The most commonly associated outcome measure was the International Knee Documentation Committee (IKDC) score, with Pearson correlation coefficients ranging from 0.20 to 0.60. The strength of association between the Knee injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS) and hop testing ranged from -0.10 to 0.62 in 4 studies. In all, 10 studies examined the relationship between hop testing and RTS, with variable association statistics reported. No meaningful association was found between hop testing and knee reinjury in 2 studies. Worse preoperative hop testing was associated with PTOA in 1 study.

CONCLUSION

Hop testing appears to possess fair association to subjective report of knee function measured by the KOOS and IKDC and a patient's ability to RTS after ACLR. Insufficient evidence is available to determine the relationship between hop testing and PTOA and knee reinjury. Predictive validity cannot be established based on available literature.

The effects of melatonin supplementation on mental health, metabolic and genetic profiles in patients under methadone maintenance treatment

This investigation was designed to determine the effect of melatonin supplementation on mental health parameters, metabolic and genetic profiles in patients under methadone maintenance treatment (MMT). This randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, clinical trial was conducted among 54 patients under MMT. Participants were randomly allocated to receive either 10 mg melatonin (2 melatonin capsules, 5 mg each) (n = 26) or placebo (n = 28) once a day, 1 hour before bedtime for 12 weeks. Melatonin supplementation significantly decreased Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (β -4.08; 95 percent CI, -5.51, -2.65; P < 0.001), Beck Depression Inventory index (β -5.46; 95% CI, -8.92, -2.00; P = 0.003) and Beck Anxiety Inventory index (β -3.87; 95% CI, -5.96, -1.77; P = 0.001) and significantly increased International Index of Erectile Functions (β 5.59; 95% CI, 1.76, 9.42; P = 0.005) compared with the placebo. Subjects who received melatonin supplements had significantly lower serum insulin levels (β -2.53; 95% CI, -4.48, -0.59; P = 0.01), homeostasis model of assessment-insulin resistance (β -0.56; 95% CI, -1.03, -0.09; P = 0.01) and higher quantitative insulin sensitivity check index (β 0.01; 95% CI, 0.004, 0.02; P = 0.009) and HDL-cholesterol levels (β 3.71; 95% CI, 1.77, 5.64; P = 0.002) compared to placebo. Additionally, melatonin intake resulted in a significant reduction in serum high sensitivity C-reactive protein (β -0.15; 95% CI, -0.27, -0.02; P = 0.02), malondialdehyde (β -0.31; 95% CI, -0.57, -0.05; P = 0.02) and protein carbonyl (β -0.06; 95% CI, -0.09, -0.04; P < 0.001). This trial indicated that taking melatonin supplements for 12 weeks by patients under MMT had beneficial effects on their mental health metabolic profiles.

Session Availability as a Result of Prior Injury Impacts the Risk of Subsequent Non-contact Lower Limb Injury in Elite Male Australian Footballers

Prior injury is a commonly identified risk factor for subsequent injury. However, a binary approach to classifying prior injury (i.e., yes/no) is commonly implemented and may constrain scientific findings, as it is possible that variations in the amount of time lost due to an injury will impact subsequent injury risk to differing degrees. Accordingly, this study investigated whether session availability, a surrogate marker of prior injury, influenced the risk of subsequent non-contact lower limb injury in Australian footballers. Data were collected from 62 male elite Australian footballers throughout the 2015, 2016, and 2017 Australian Football League seasons. Each athlete's participation status (i.e., full or missed/modified) and any injuries that occurred during training sessions/matches were recorded. As the focus of the current study was prior injury, any training sessions/matches that were missed due to reasons other than an injury (e.g., load management, illness and personal reasons) were removed from the data prior to all analyses. For every Monday during the in-season periods, session availability (%) in the prior 7, 14, 21, 28, 35, 42, 49, 56, 63, 70, 77, and 84 days was determined as the number of training sessions/matches fully completed (injury free) relative to the number of training sessions/matches possible in each window. Each variable was modeled using logistic regression to determine its impact on subsequent injury risk. Throughout the study period, 173 non-contact lower limb injuries that resulted in at least one missed/modified training session or match during the in-season periods occurred. Greater availability in the prior 7 days increased injury probabilities by up to 4.4%. The impact of session availability on subsequent injury risk diminished with expanding windows (i.e., availability in the prior 14 days through to the prior 84 days). Lesser availability in the prior 84 days increased injury probabilities by up to 14.1%, only when coupled with greater availability in the prior 7 days. Session availability may provide an informative marker of the impact of prior injury on subsequent injury risk and can be used by coaches and clinicians to guide the progression of training, particularly for athletes that are returning from long periods of injury.

Effects of magnesium supplementation on carotid intima-media thickness and metabolic profiles in diabetic haemodialysis patients: a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial

This study evaluated the effects of Mg administration on carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT), glycaemic control and markers of cardio-metabolic risk in diabetic haemodialysis (HD) patients. This randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trial was conducted in fifty-four diabetic HD patients. Participants were randomly divided into two groups to take either 250 mg/d Mg as magnesium oxide (n 27) or placebo (n 27) for 24 weeks. Mg supplementation resulted in a significant reduction in mean (P&lt;0·001) and maximum levels of left CIMT (P=0·02) and mean levels of right CIMT (P=0·004) compared with the placebo. In addition, taking Mg supplements significantly reduced serum insulin levels (β=-9·42 pmol/l; 95% CI -14·94, -3·90; P=0·001), homoeostasis model of assessment-insulin resistance (β=-0·56; 95 % CI -0·89, -0·24; P=0·001) and HbA1c (β=-0·74 %; 95 % CI -1·10, -0·39; P&lt;0·001) and significantly increased the quantitative insulin sensitivity check index (β=0·008; 95 % CI 0·002, 0·01; P=0·002) compared with the placebo. In addition, Mg administration led to a significant reduction in serum total cholesterol (β=-0·30 mmol/l; 95% CI -0·56, -0·04; P=0·02), LDL-cholesterol (β=-0·29 mmol/l; 95% CI -0·52, -0·05; P=0·01), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) (P&lt;0·001) and plasma malondialdehyde (MDA) (P=0·04) and a significant rise in plasma total antioxidant capacity (TAC) levels (P&lt;0·001) compared with the placebo. Overall, we found that taking Mg for 24 weeks by diabetic HD patients significantly improved mean and maximum levels of left and mean levels of right CIMT, insulin metabolism, HbA1c, total cholesterol and LDL-cholesterol, hs-CRP, TAC and MDA levels.

The Association Between Passing Return-to-Sport Criteria and Second Anterior Cruciate Ligament Injury Risk: A Systematic Review With Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

There is no consensus on the components of return-to-sport (RTS) testing following anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) reconstruction or whether passing RTS criteria can reduce a patient's risk of reinjury.

OBJECTIVES

To determine whether impartial, criteria-based RTS decisions are associated with less risk of a second ACL injury (either graft failure or contralateral ACL injury).

METHODS

In this systematic review with meta-analysis, the authors conducted an electronic literature search in PubMed/MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, SPORTDiscus, and ProQuest Dissertations and Theses Global using database-specific vocabulary related to ACL reconstruction and return to sport. Individual study quality was assessed using the modified Downs and Black checklist, and overall quality of evidence was determined with the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation scale. Pooled risk difference (passed versus failed RTS criteria), injury incidence proportion, and the diagnostic accuracy of each RTS criterion were calculated.

RESULTS

Four studies met the selection criteria. Overall, 42.7% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 18%, 69%) of patients passed RTS criteria, and 14.4% (95% CI: 8%, 21%) of those who passed experienced a second ACL injury (graft rupture or contralateral ACL injury). There was a nonsignificant 3% reduced risk of a second ACL injury after passing RTS criteria (risk difference, -3%; 95% CI: -16%, 10%; I² = 74%, P = .610). The evidence rating of the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation scale was "very low quality," due to imprecision and heterogeneity of the pooled risk difference estimate.

CONCLUSION

Passing RTS criteria did not show a statistically significant association with risk of a second ACL injury. The quality-of-evidence rating prevents a definitive conclusion on this question and indicates an opportunity for future research.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Prognosis, Level 2a-. J Orthop Sports Phys Ther 2019;49(2):43-54. Epub 30 Nov 2018. doi:10.2519/jospt.2019.8190.

Time-to-event analysis for sports injury research part 1: time-varying exposures

BACKGROUND

'How much change in training load is too much before injury is sustained, among different athletes?' is a key question in sports medicine and sports science. To address this question the investigator/practitioner must analyse exposure variables that change over time, such as change in training load. Very few studies have included time-varying exposures (eg, training load) and time-varying effect-measure modifiers (eg, previous injury, biomechanics, sleep/stress) when studying sports injury aetiology.

AIM

To discuss advanced statistical methods suitable for the complex analysis of time-varying exposures such as changes in training load and injury-related outcomes.

CONTENT

Time-varying exposures and time-varying effect-measure modifiers can be used in time-to-event models to investigate sport injury aetiology. We address four key-questions (i) Does time-to-event modelling allow change in training load to be included as a time-varying exposure for sport injury development? (ii) Why is time-to-event analysis superior to other analytical concepts when analysing training-load related data that changes status over time? (iii) How can researchers include change in training load in a time-to-event analysis? and, (iv) Are researchers able to include other time-varying variables into time-to-event analyses? We emphasise that cleaning datasets, setting up the data, performing analyses with time-varying variables and interpreting the results is time-consuming, and requires dedication. It may need you to ask for assistance from methodological peers as the analytical approaches presented this paper require specialist knowledge and well-honed statistical skills.

CONCLUSION

To increase knowledge about the association between changes in training load and injury, we encourage sports injury researchers to collaborate with statisticians and/or methodological epidemiologists to carefully consider applying time-to-event models to prospective sports injury data. This will ensure appropriate interpretation of time-to-event data.

Improvement of Prediction of Noncontact Injury in Elite Australian Footballers With Repeated Exposure to Established High-Risk Workload Scenarios

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effect of multiple high-risk-scenario (HRS) exposures on noncontact injury prediction in elite Australian footballers.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

METHODS

Sessional workload data (session rating of perceived exertion, global positioning system-derived distance, sprint distance, and maximum velocity) from 1 club (N = 60 players) over 3 seasons were collated; several established HRSs were also defined. Accumulated HRS sessional exposures were calculated retrospectively (previous 1-8 wk). Noncontact injury data were documented. Univariate and multivariate Poisson regression models determined injury incidence rate ratios (IRRs) while accounting for moderating effects (preseason workload volume and playing experience). Model performance was evaluated using receiver operating characteristics (area under curve).

RESULTS

Very low (0-8 sessions: IRR = 5.76; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.69-19.66) and very high (>15 sessions: IRR = 4.70; 95% CI, 1.49-14.87) exposures to >85% of an individual's maximal velocity over the previous 8 wk were associated with greater injury risk compared with moderate exposures (11-12 sessions) and displayed the best model performance (area under curve = 0.64). A single session corresponding to a very low chronic load condition over the previous week for all workload variables was associated with increased injury risk, with sprint distance (IRR = 3.25; 95% CI, 1.95-5.40) providing the most accurate prediction model (area under curve = 0.63).

CONCLUSIONS

Minimal exposure to high-velocity efforts (maximum speed exposure and sprint volume) was associated with the greatest injury risk. Being underloaded may be a mediator for noncontact injury in elite Australian football. Preseason workload and playing experience were not moderators of this effect.

Prevalence of knee pain, radiographic osteoarthritis and arthroplasty in retired professional footballers compared with men in the general population: a cross-sectional study

Objectives

To determine the prevalence of knee pain, radiographic knee osteoarthritis (RKOA), total knee replacement (TKR) and associated risk factors in male ex-professional footballers compared with men in the general population (comparison group).

Methods

1207 male ex-footballers and 4085 men in the general population in the UK were assessed by postal questionnaire. Current knee pain was defined as pain in or around the knees on most days of the previous month. Presence and severity of RKOA were assessed on standardised radiographs using the Nottingham Line Drawing Atlas (NLDA) in a subsample of 470 ex-footballers and 491 men in the comparison group. The adjusted risk ratio (aRR) and adjusted risk difference (aRD) with 95% CI in ex-footballers compared with the general population were calculated using the marginal model in Stata.

Results

Ex-footballers were more likely than the comparison group to have current knee pain (aRR 1.91, 95% CI 1.77 to 2.06), RKOA (aRR 2.21, 95% CI 1.92 to 2.54) and TKR (aRR 3.61, 95% CI 2.90 to 4.50). Ex-footballers were also more likely to present with chondrocalcinosis (aRR 3.41, 95% CI 2.44 to 4.77). Prevalence of knee pain and RKOA were higher in ex-footballers at all ages. However, even after adjustment for significant knee injury and other risk factors, there was more than a doubling of risk of these outcomes in footballers.

Conclusions

The prevalence of all knee osteoarthritis outcomes (knee pain, RKOA and TKR) were two to three times higher in male ex-footballers compared with men in the general population group. Knee injury is the main attributable risk factor. Even after adjustment for recognised risk factors, knee osteoarthritis appear to be an occupational hazard of professional football.