Planning hospitals with limited evidence: a research and policy problem

Assessing the future direction of sustainable development in public hospitals: Time-horizon, path and action

PURPOSE

To assess the future direction of sustainable development in public hospitals, focusing on their short- versus long-term time horizons, top-down versus bottom-up paths, and intra-organizational versus inter-organizational actions.

DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH

The selection of significant health care organizations was based on judgmental sampling. This study applied an inductive approach. The interviewees were identified according to their knowledge of the future direction of their organizations' sustainable development.

FINDINGS

The sustainable development of the studied public hospitals is aimed at the synchronization of actions with other hospitals in the public healthcare system. The public hospitals studied differ in their interconnected elements of time (short- versus long-time horizons), paths (top-down versus bottom-up) and specific actions (intra-organizational versus inter-organizational). RESEARCH LIMITATIONS/: implications Offers insights into how to assess the direction of sustainable development in public hospitals. We stress the importance of time, path and action in conjunction. Furthermore, this study provides a three-dimensional framework to assess the future direction of sustainable development in organizations as well as in industries. Both the former and latter characteristics are shaped by the elements of time, path and action.

MANAGERIAL IMPLICATIONS

Provides a three-dimensional framework of criteria to assess the direction of sustainable development in organizations. The assessment criteria may be used by organizations to assess the direction of other organizations in their industry. Industry associations or authorities may look into the status and future direction of sustainable development in industries or sectors as a whole. The assessment criteria provide an opportunity and foundation to benchmark against others in the same industry and insights to face pandemic as Covid-19.

ORIGINALITY/VALUE

First study to consider a three-dimensional framework based on time, path and action to assess the future direction of sustainable development in an organization.

Hospital capacity management based on the queueing theory

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to focus on the contributions of queueing theory to hospital capacity management to improve organizational performance and deal with increased demand in the healthcare sector.

Design/methodology/approach

Models were applied to six months of inpatient records from a university hospital to determine operation measures such as utilization rate, waiting probability, estimated bed capacity, capacity simulations and demand behavior assessment.

Findings

Irrespective of the findings of the queueing model, the results showed that there is room for improvement in capacity management. Balancing admissions and the type of patient over the week represent a possible solution to optimize bed and nurse utilization. Patient mixing results in a highly sensitive delay rate due to length of stay (LOS) variability, with variations in both the utilization rate and the number of beds.

Practical implications

The outcomes suggest that operational managers should improve patient admission management, as well as reducing variability in LOS and in admissions during the week.

Originality/value

The queueing theory revealed a quantitative portrait of the day-by-day reality in a fast and flexible manner which is very convenient to the task of management.

The reconfiguration of hospital services: is there evidence to guide us?

Many argue that the solution to the NHS's quality and financial problems lies in the continuing reconfiguration and centralisation of hospital services. However, an ageing population requires good local access to care. This paper reviews the evidence that is available to help guide the reconfiguration of hospital services. The quality overall is poor and, in particular, there is little evidence that reconfiguring hospital services results in financial savings. For acute medical care, there is strong evidence both for enhanced direct and early consultant involvement, and for the importance of comprehensive supporting services. Clinical networks and new technologies may offer opportunities to sustain local access but more evidence is needed to guide network development and to ensure safe but sustainable medical staffing models.

Insights from the clinical assurance of service reconfiguration in the NHS: the drivers of reconfiguration and the evidence that underpins it – a mixed-methods study

Background

Over the life of the NHS, hospital services have been subject to continued reconfiguration. Yet it is rare for the reconfiguration of clinical services to be evaluated, leaving a deficit in the evidence to guide local reconfiguration of services.

Objectives

The objectives of this research are to determine the current pressures for reconfiguration within the NHS in England and the solutions proposed. We also investigate the quality of evidence used in making the case for change, any key evidence gaps, and the opportunities to strengthen the clinical case for change and how it is made.

Methods

We have drawn on two key sources of evidence. First, we reviewed the reports produced by the National Clinical Advisory Team (NCAT) documenting its reviews of reconfiguration proposals. An in-depth multilevel qualitative analysis was conducted of 123 NCAT reviews published between 2007 and 2012. Second, we carried out a search and synthesis of the literature to identify the key evidence available to support reconfiguration decisions. The findings from this literature search were integrated with the analysis of the reviews to develop a narrative for each specialty and the process of reconfiguration as a whole.

Results

The evidence from the NCAT reviews shows significant pressure to reconfigure services within the NHS in England. We found that the majority of reconfiguration proposals are driving an increasing concentration of hospital services, with some accompanying decentralisation and, for some specialist services, the development of supporting clinical networks. The primary drivers of reconfiguration have been workforce (in particular the medical workforce) and finance. Improving outcomes and safety issues have been subsidiary drivers, though many make the link between staffing and clinical safety. Policy has also been a notable driver. Access has been notable by its absence as a driver. Despite significant pressures to reconfigure services, many proposals fail to be implemented owing to public and/or clinical opposition. We found strong evidence that some specialist service reconfiguration including vascular surgery and major trauma can significantly improve clinical outcomes. However, there are notable evidence gaps. The most significant is the absence of evidence that service reconfiguration can deliver significant savings. There is also an absence of evidence about safe staffing models and the interplay between staff numbers, skill mix and outcomes. We found that the advice provided by the NCAT reflects the current evidence, but one of the NCAT’s most valuable contributions has been to encourage greater clinical engagement in service change.

Conclusions

The NHS is continuing to concentrate many district general hospital services to resolve financial and workforce pressures. However, many proposals are not implemented owing to public opposition. We also found no evidence to suggest that this will deliver the savings anticipated. There is a significant gap in the evidence about safe staffing models and the appropriate balance of junior and senior medical as well as other clinical staff. There is an urgent need to carry out research that will help to fill the current evidence gap. There is also a need to retain some national clinical expertise to work alongside Clinical Senates in supporting local service reconfiguration.

Funding

The National Institute for Health Research Health Services and Delivery Research programme.

Inadequate acute hospital beds and the limits of primary care and prevention

Metropolitan Australia is suffering from a serious shortage of acute hospital beds. Simplistic comparisons with the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development bed numbers are misleading because of the hybrid Australian public/private hospital system. The unavailability of most private beds for acute emergency cases and urban/rural bed imbalances have not been adequately considered. There is a lack of advocacy for acute bed availability. This attitude permeates government, health professions and the health bureaucracy. Planners, politicians, analysts and the media have adopted false hopes of reducing acute demand by prevention and primary care strategies, vital as these services are to a balanced healthcare system. This paper directly challenges the ideology that says Australia depends too heavily on hospital-based healthcare. Rebuilding the bed base requires recognition of the need for an adequate acute hospital service and strong advocacy for bed-based care in the medical and nursing professionals who should be driving policy. The forces opposing bed-based care are strong and solutions might include legislative definition of bed numbers and availability.

Barriers and opportunities for evidence-based health service planning: the example of developing a Decision Analytic Model to plan services for sexually transmitted infections in the UK

Background

Decision Analytic Models (DAMs) are established means of evidence-synthesis to differentiate between health interventions. They have mainly been used to inform clinical decisions and health technology assessment at the national level, yet could also inform local health service planning. For this, a DAM must take into account the needs of the local population, but also the needs of those planning its services.

Drawing on our experiences from stakeholder consultations, where we presented the potential utility of a DAM for planning local health services for sexually transmitted infections (STIs) in the UK, and the evidence it could use to inform decisions regarding different combinations of service provision, in terms of their costs, cost-effectiveness, and public health outcomes, we discuss the barriers perceived by stakeholders to the use of DAMs to inform service planning for local populations, including (1) a tension between individual and population perspectives; (2) reductionism; and (3) a lack of transparency regarding models, their assumptions, and the motivations of those generating models.

Discussion

Technological advances, including improvements in computing capability, are facilitating the development and use of models such as DAMs for health service planning. However, given the current scepticism among many stakeholders, encouraging informed critique and promoting trust in models to aid health service planning is vital, for example by making available and explicit the methods and assumptions underlying each model, associated limitations, and the process of validation. This can be achieved by consultation and training with the intended users, and by allowing access to the workings of the models, and their underlying assumptions (e.g. via the internet), to show how they actually work.

Summary

Constructive discussion and education will help build a consensus on the purposes of STI services, the need for service planning to be evidence-based, and the potential for mathematical tools like DAMs to facilitate this.

Methods for the evaluation of hospital cooperation activities (Systematic review protocol)

BACKGROUND

Hospital partnerships, mergers and cooperatives are arrangements frequently seen as a means of improving health service delivery. Many of the assumptions used in planning hospital cooperatives are not stated clearly and are often based on limited or poor scientific evidence.

METHODS

This is a protocol for a systematic review, following the Cochrane EPOC methodology. The review aims to document, catalogue and synthesize the existing literature on the reported methods for the evaluation of hospital cooperation activities as well as methods of hospital cooperation. We will search the Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effectiveness, the Effective Practice and Organisation of Care Register, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials and bibliographic databases including PubMed (via NLM), Web of Science, NHS EED, Business Source Premier (via EBSCO) and Global Health for publications that report on methods for evaluating hospital cooperatives, strategic partnerships, mergers, alliances, networks and related activities and methods used for such partnerships. The method proposed by the Cochrane EPOC group regarding randomized study designs, controlled clinical trials, controlled before and after studies, and interrupted time series will be followed. In addition, we will also include cohort, case-control studies, and relevant non-comparative publications such as case reports. We will categorize and analyze the review findings according to the study design employed, the study quality (low versus high quality studies) and the method reported in the primary studies. We will present the results of studies in tabular form.

DISCUSSION

Overall, the systematic review aims to identify, assess and synthesize the evidence to underpin hospital cooperation activities as defined in this protocol. As a result, the review will provide an evidence base for partnerships, alliances or other fields of cooperation in a hospital setting. PROSPERO registration number: CRD42011001579.

Emergency department overcrowding in the United States: an emerging threat to patient safety and public health

Numerous reports have questioned the ability of United States emergency departments to handle the increasing demand for emergency services. Emergency department (ED) overcrowding is widespread in US cities and has reportedly reached crisis proportions. The purpose of this review is to describe how ED overcrowding threatens patient safety and public health, and to explore the complex causes and potential solutions for the overcrowding crisis. A review of the literature from 1990 to 2002 identified by a search of the Medline database was performed. Additional sources were selected from the references of the articles identified. There were four key findings. (1) The ED is a vital component of America's health care "safety net". (2) Overcrowding in ED treatment areas threatens public health by compromising patient safety and jeopardising the reliability of the entire US emergency care system. (3) Although the causes of ED overcrowding are complex, the main cause is inadequate inpatient capacity for a patient population with an increasing severity of illness. (4) Potential solutions for ED overcrowding will require multidisciplinary system-wide support.

Treatment of recurrent aspiration pneumonia in end-stage dementia: preferences and choices of a group of elderly nursing home residents

BACKGROUND

Clinicians are often faced with the dilemma of how best to manage patients with advanced dementia who present to the hospital with repeated episodes of aspiration pneumonia. Rarely, if at all, are the opinions of the group that is most likely to be directly affected, that is the older nursing home resident, sought. This study seeks to fill that gap.

AIMS

To study the choices and preferences of a group of elderly nursing home residents in the treatment of recurrent aspiration pneumonia on a background of severe disability from end-stage dementia.

METHODS

A descriptive cross-sectional interview study using a hypothetical scenario carried out in six nursing homes within eastern Sydney, from June to August 2000. Views and attitudes towards hospitalization, antibiotic use, tube feeding and other treatment measures, given a situation of recurrent aspiration pneumonia and end-stage dementia, were obtained.

RESULTS

Fifty-two elderly nursing home residents who were cognitively intact and not depressed were interviewed. Most of the subjects would prefer further hospital admissions (61.5%, P<0.1) and would choose to have antibiotic treatment (73.1%, P<0.001). Slightly more than half would not agree to artificial ventilation. Sixty-nine percent of the respondents would not agree to feeding via a nasogastric tube (P<0.05) and 71% would not agree to a feeding gastrostomy (P<0.001). Most would agree to a modified diet (75%, P<0.0001) and to continue oral feeding despite the attendant risk of re-aspiration (59.6%, P<0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

The participants generally preferred to be treated in a hospital setting given the scenario. Most disagreed with the use of artificial feeding.

Synergizing acute care and palliative care to optimise nursing care in end-stage cardiorespiratory disease

Advances in the practice of medicine and nursing science have increased survival for patients with chronic cardiorespiratory disease. Parallel to this positive outcome is a societal expectation of longevity and cure of disease. Chronic disease and the inevitability of death creates a dilemma, more than ever before, for the health care professional, who is committed to the delivery of quality care to patients and their families. The appropriate time for broaching the issue of dying and determining when palliative care is required is problematic. Dilemmas occur with a perceived dissonance between acute and palliative care and difficulties in determining prognosis. Palliative care must be integrated within the health care continuum, rather than being a discrete entity at the end of life, in order to achieve optimal patient outcomes. Anecdotally, acute and critical care nurses experience frustration from the tensions that arise between acute and palliative care philosophies. Many clinicians are concerned that patients are denied a good death and yet the moment when care should be oriented toward palliation rather than aggressive management is usually unclear. Clearly this has implications for the type and quality of care that patients receive. This paper provides a review of the extant literature and identifies issues in the end of life care for patients with chronic cardiorespiratory diseases within acute and critical care environments. Issues for refinement of acute and critical care nursing practice and research priorities are identified to create a synergy between these philosophical perspectives.

Emergency department overcrowding following systematic hospital restructuring: trends at twenty hospitals over ten years

OBJECTIVE

Hospital restructuring often results in fewer inpatient beds, increased ambulatory services, and closures of hospitals or emergency departments (EDs). The authors sought to determine the impact of systematic hospital restructuring on ED overcrowding.

METHODS

Time series analyses of average monthly overcrowding for EDs in Toronto, Ontario, Canada, from 1991 and 2000 (n = 20 hospitals, 120 months) were conducted. Autoregression models evaluated the rate of increase of overcrowding before and during systematic restructuring. A secondary analysis included total ED visits, patient age, and sex distribution as covariates. Seasonality was assessed by means of spectral analysis.

RESULTS

Severe and moderate overcrowding averaged 3% and 14% of the time each month, respectively, over the whole period. Before restructuring (n = 74 months), severe and moderate overcrowding averaged 0.5% and 9% per month, respectively; during restructuring (n = 46 months), the monthly averages were 6% and 23%, respectively. Neither severe nor moderate overcrowding was increasing before restructuring. During restructuring, however, both increased significantly (severe 0.2% per month [p < 0.0001]; moderate 0.5% per month [p < 0.0001]). Similar results were found after controlling for ED utilization. Female gender independently predicted increased overcrowding; older age predicted reduced moderate overcrowding; number of total visits was not a predictor. Spectral analysis revealed significant seasonality in overcrowding.

CONCLUSIONS

Hospital restructuring was associated with increased ED overcrowding, even after controlling for utilization and patient demographics. Restructuring should proceed slowly to allow time for monitoring of its effects and modification of the process, because the impact of incremental reductions in hospital resources may be magnified as maximum operating capacity is approached.

Medical workforce planning. Comparing reality with aspirations

The debate on reorganisation of hospital services is fertile ground for expert opinion. The Joint Consultants Committee (JCC) have produced the most recent view on the ideal acute hospital size and consultant staffing; however, their ideal is far removed from reality. A survey of trusts across the West Midlands found that many are falling short of the recommendations, such as meeting a one-in-five consultant on-call rota for the major admitting specialties and providing adequate cover in the core sub-specialties of general medicine and general surgery. While the JCC recommendations give a welcome direction and focus to workforce planning, reaching some of these will require a large financial investment and an increase in the number of trainees. Prioritising the recommendations may help to facilitate implementation by health-care providers.

Integrated care: a position paper of the WHO European Office for Integrated Health Care Services

The WHO European Office for Integrated Health Care Services in Barcelona is an integral part of the World Health Organizations' Regional Office for Europe. The main purpose of the Barcelona office is within the integration of services to encourage and facilitate changes in health care services in order to promote health and improve management and patient satisfaction by working for quality, accessibility, cost-effectiveness and participation. This position paper outlines the need for Integrated Care from a European perspective, provides a theoretical framework for the meaning of Integrated Care and its strategies and summarizes the programmes of the office that will support countries in the WHO European Region to improve health services.