Patient mortality after surgery on the surgeon's birthday: observational study

Exploring the Birthday Week Effect on Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Yunnan Province, China, From 2008 to 2022: Surveillance Data Analysis

Background

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a notable infectious disease predominantly affecting infants and children worldwide. Previous studies on HFMD have primarily focused on natural patterns, such as seasonality, but research on the influence of important social time points is lacking. Several studies have indicated correlations between birthdays and certain disease outcomes.

Objective

This study aimed to explore the association between birthdays and HFMD.

Methods

Surveillance data on HFMD from 2008 to 2022 in Yunnan Province, China, were collected. We defined the period from 6 days before the birthday to the exact birthday as the "birthday week." The effect of the birthday week was measured by the proportion of cases occurring during this period, termed the "birthday week proportion." We conducted subgroup analyses to present the birthday week proportions across sexes, age groups, months of birth, and reporting years. Additionally, we used a modified Poisson regression model to identify conditional subgroups more likely to contract HFMD during the birthday week.

Results

Among the 973,410 cases in total, 116,976 (12.02%) occurred during the birthday week, which is 6.27 times the average weekly proportion (7/365, 1.92%). While the birthday week proportions were similar between male and female individuals (68,849/564,725, 12.19% vs 48,127/408,685, 11.78%; χ21=153.25, P<.001), significant differences were observed among different age groups (χ23=47,145, P<.001) and months of birth (χ211=16,942, P<.001). Compared to other age groups, infants aged 0-1 year had the highest birthday week proportion (30,539/90,709, 33.67%), which is 17.57 times the average weekly proportion. Compared to other months, patients born from April to July and from October to December, the peak months of the HFMD epidemic, had higher birthday week proportions. Additionally, a decreasing trend in birthday week proportions from 2008 to 2022 was observed, dropping from 33.74% (3914/11,600) to 2.77% (2254/81,372; Cochran-Armitage trend test: Z=-102.53, P<.001). The results of the modified Poisson regression model further supported the subgroup analyses findings. Compared with children aged >7 years, infants aged 0-1 year were more likely to contract HFMD during the birthday week (relative risk 1.182, 95% CI 1.177-1.185; P<.001). Those born during peak epidemic months exhibited a higher propensity for contracting HFMD during their birthday week. Compared with January, the highest relative risk was observed in May (1.087, 95% CI 1.084-1.090; P<.001).

Conclusions

This study identified a novel "birthday week effect" of HFMD, particularly notable for infants approaching their first birthday and those born during peak epidemic months. Improvements in surveillance quality may explain the declining trend of the birthday week effect over the years. Higher exposure risk during the birthday period and potential biological mechanisms might also account for this phenomenon. Raising public awareness of the heightened risk during the birthday week could benefit HFMD prevention and control.

The role of surgeon's intuition for acute type A aortic dissection in an era of evidence-based medicine: a prospective cohort study

Background

Intuition may play a role in clinical practice. This prospective cohort study aimed to explore whether surgeons' intuition is valid in predicting the operative mortality of acute type A aortic dissection (ATAAD).

Methods

After admission (before surgery), attending surgeons were asked to rate the mortality on a scale of 1 to 10, with 1 to 3 representing unlikely, 4-6 possible, and 7-10 very likely. The area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was performed to assess the accuracy of prediction models.

Results

A significantly higher Surgeon's Score [5.0 (2.0, 8.0) vs. 8.0 (7.0, 10.0)] was observed in the mortality group, compared to the survival group. The odds ratio (OR) for Surgeon's Score was 1.32 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.09-1.66, P=0.009]. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression picked the following variables as significant predictors for early mortality of ATAAD: Surgeon's Score, Penn classification, age, aortic regurgitation, coronary artery disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, platelet count, and ejection fraction. The AUC for the German Registry for Acute Aortic Dissection Type A (GERAADA) score and Surgeon's Score were 0.740 (95% CI: 0.625-0.854), and 0.710 (95% CI: 0.586-0.833), respectively. The combined model of GERAADA score and Surgeon's Score yielded an AUC of up to 0.761 (95% CI: 0.638-0.884).

Conclusions

Intuition certainly has a place alongside evidence-based medicine. The duet of intuition and statistics-based scoring systems allows us to make more accurate predictions, potentially resulting in more rational clinical decisions.

Increasing the margin of patient safety for periodontal and implant treatments: The role of human factors

Early complications following periodontal and dental implant surgeries are typically attributed to technique or poor biological response, ignoring the possibility of the human element. Interestingly, significant experience is not correlated with increased success, whereas evidence supports the impact of clinical behavior on patient outcome. This is the result of errors, much like those scrutinized in other high-risk technical fields, such as aviation. What can be surprising is that those who make these errors are very well acquainted with best practices. Given this, how is it possible for the conscientious practitioner to fail to apply protocols that are nonetheless very well known? Recently, the concepts of human and organizational factors have been translated to medicine, though dentistry has been slow to recognize their potential benefit. This review lists specific human factor behaviors, such as use of checklists and crew resource management, which might improve postsurgical outcome.

Inequities in surgical outcomes by race and sex in the United States: retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To assess inequities in mortality by race and sex for eight common surgical procedures (elective and non-elective) across specialties in the United States.

DESIGN

Retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

US, 2016-18.

PARTICIPANTS

1 868 036 Black and White Medicare beneficiaries aged 65-99 years undergoing one of eight common surgeries: repair of abdominal aortic aneurysm, appendectomy, cholecystectomy, colectomy, coronary artery bypass surgery, hip replacement, knee replacement, and lung resection.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

The main outcome measure was 30 day mortality, defined as death during hospital admission or within 30 days of the surgical procedure.

RESULTS

Postoperative mortality overall was higher in Black men (1698 deaths, adjusted mortality rate 3.05%, 95% confidence interval 2.85% to 3.24%) compared with White men (21 833 deaths, 2.69%, 2.65% to 2.73%), White women (21 847 deaths, 2.38%, 2.35% to 2.41%), and Black women (1631 deaths, 2.18%, 2.04% to 2.31%), after adjusting for potential confounders. A similar pattern was found for elective surgeries, with Black men showing a higher adjusted mortality (393 deaths, 1.30%, 1.14% to 1.46%) compared with White men (5650 deaths, 0.85%, 0.83% to 0.88%), White women (4615 deaths, 0.82%, 0.80% to 0.84%), and Black women (359 deaths, 0.79%, 0.70% to 0.88%). This 0.45 percentage point difference implies that mortality after elective procedures was 50% higher in Black men compared with White men. For non-elective surgeries, however, mortality did not differ between Black men and White men (1305 deaths, 6.69%, 6.26% to 7.11%; and 16 183 deaths, 7.03%, 6.92% to 7.14%, respectively), although mortality was lower for White women and Black women (17 232 deaths, 6.12%, 6.02% to 6.21%; and 1272 deaths, 5.29%, 4.93% to 5.64%, respectively). These differences in mortality appeared within seven days after surgery and persisted for up to 60 days after surgery.

CONCLUSIONS

Postoperative mortality overall was higher among Black men compared with White men, White women, and Black women. These findings highlight the need to understand better the unique challenges Black men who require surgery face.

Organ Donation and Transplants During Major US Motorcycle Rallies

Importance

Large-scale motorcycle rallies attract thousands of attendees and are associated with increased trauma-related morbidity and mortality.

Objective

To examine the association of major US motorcycle rallies with the incidence of organ donation and transplants.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This population-based, retrospective cross-sectional study used data from the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients for deceased organ donors aged 16 years or older involved in a motor vehicle crash and recipients of organs from these donors from March 2005 to September 2021.

Exposure

Dates of 7 large US motorcycle rallies and regions near these events.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The main outcomes were incidence of motor vehicle crash-related organ donation and number of patients receiving a solid organ transplant from these donors. An event study design was used to estimate adjusted rates of organ donation during the dates of 7 major US motorcycle rallies compared with the 4 weeks before and after the rallies in rally-affected and rally-unaffected (control) regions. Donor and recipient characteristics and metrics of organ quality were compared between rally and nonrally dates.

Results

The study included 10 798 organ donors (70.9% male; mean [SD] age, 32.5 [13.7] years) and 35 329 recipients of these organs (64.0% male; 49.3 [15.5] years). During the rally dates, there were 406 organ donors and 1400 transplant recipients. During the 4 weeks before and after the rallies, there were 2332 organ donors and 7714 transplant recipients. Donors and recipients during rally and nonrally dates were similar in demographic and clinical characteristics, measures of organ quality, measures of recipient disease severity, and recipient waiting time. During rallies, there were 21% more organ donors per day (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 1.21; 95% CI, 1.09-1.35; P = .001) and 26% more transplant recipients per day (IRR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.12-1.42; P < .001) compared with the 4 weeks before and after the rallies in the regions where they were held.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cross-sectional study, major motorcycle rallies in the US were associated with increased incidence of organ donation and transplants. While safety measures to minimize morbidity and mortality during motorcycle rallies should be prioritized, this study showed the downstream association of these events with organ donation and transplants.

Association between preoperative platelet and 30-day postoperative mortality of adult patients undergoing craniotomy for brain tumors: data from the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program database

BACKGROUND

Evidence regarding the relationship between preoperative platelet and 30-day postoperative mortality of intracranial tumor patients undergoing craniotomy is still limited. Therefore, the present research was conducted to explore the link of the platelet and 30-day postoperative mortality.

METHODS

Electronic medical records of 18,642 adult patients undergoing craniotomy for brain tumors from 2012 to 2015 in the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program, were subject to secondary retrospective analysis. A binary logistic regression model evaluated the independent association between preoperative platelet and 30-day postoperative mortality. A generalized additive model and smooth curve fitting was conducted to explore the exact shape of the curve between them. Additionally, We also conducted sensitivity analyses to test the robustness of the results, and performed subgroup analyses.

RESULTS

Eighteen thousand sixty-three patients were included in this study analysis. Of these, 47.49% were male. The mean preoperative platelet value was (244.12 ± 76.77) × 10⁹/L. The 30-day postoperative mortality of included participants was 2.5% (452/18,063). After adjusting covariates, the results showed that preoperative platelet was positively associated with 30-day postoperative mortality (OR = 0.999, 95%CI: 0.997, 1.000). There was also a nonlinear relationship between preoperative platelet and 30-day postoperative mortality, and the inflection point of the platelet was 236. The effect sizes (OR) on the right and left sides of the inflection point were 1.002 (1.000, 1.004) and 0.993 (0.990, 0.995), respectively. And sensitive analysis demonstrated the robustness of the results. Subgroup analysis showed a stronger association between preoperative platelet and 30-day postoperative mortality in non-emergency surgery patients when preoperative platelet value is less than 235 × 10⁹/L.

CONCLUSIONS

This research demonstrates a positive and non-linear relationship between preoperative platelet and 30-day postoperative mortality in U.S. adult brain tumor patients undergoing craniotomy. Preoperative platelet is strongly related to 30-day postoperative mortality when the platelet is less than 235 × 10⁹/L. Proper preoperative management of platelet and maintenance of platelet near inflection point (235) could reduce risk of 30-day postoperative mortality in these cases.

Facing the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic: How Can We Allocate Outpatient Doctor Resources More Effectively?

The COVID-19 pandemic caused significant damage to global healthcare systems. Previous studies regarding COVID-19’s impact on outpatient numbers focused only on a specific department, lacking research data for multiple departments in general hospitals. We assessed differences in COVID-19’s impact on outpatient numbers for different departments to help hospital managers allocate outpatient doctor resources more effectively during the pandemic. We compared the outpatient numbers of 24 departments in a general hospital in Beijing in 2019 and 2020. We also examined an indicator not mentioned in previous studies, monthly departmental patient reservation rates. The results show that, compared with 2019, 2020 outpatient numbers decreased overall by 33.36%. Ten departments’ outpatient numbers decreased >33.36%; however, outpatient numbers increased in two departments. In 2020, the overall patient reservation rate in 24 departments was 82.22% of the 2019 reservation rate; the rates in 14 departments were <82.22%. Moreover, patient reservation rates varied across different months. Our research shows that COVID-19’s impact on different departments also varied. Additionally, our research suggests that well-known departments will be less affected by COVID-19, as will departments related to tumor treatment, where there may also be an increase in patient numbers. Patient reservation rates are an indicator worthy of attention. We suggest that hospital managers classify departments according to changes in outpatient numbers and patient reservation rates and adopt accurate, dynamic, and humanized management strategies to allocate outpatient doctor resources.

Wie erfolgreich operieren Chirurginnen/Chirurgen am eigenen Geburtstag?

Haben Lebensereignisse einen Einfluss auf die operativen Leistungen von Chirurginnen und Chirurgen? Können besondere Tage die Operateurinnen/Operateure ablenken und somit für eine höhere Sterblichkeit sorgen? Um diese Fragen beantworten zu können, führten Kato und Team eine retrospektive Analyse der 30-Tages-Mortalität nach knapp 1 Mio. OPs an Geburtstagen von Chirurginnen/Chirurgen oder an normalen Tagen durch, und kamen zu einem spannenden Ergebnis.