Taking the health aid debate to the subnational level: the impact and allocation of foreign health aid in Malawi

Less stunted? The impact of Chinese health aid on child nutrition

Despite the increasing recognition of China's role as a global health donor, particularly in Africa, few studies have explored its effectiveness. We geographically matched project-level aid data from AidData with household survey data from Demographic and Health Surveys across eight African countries to examine the effect of Chinese health aid on the nutritional status of children in recipient countries. In addition to adopting a spatiotemporal identification strategy, we also included mother fixed-effects to examine variations among siblings who were exposed to Chinese health aid projects at different times. The empirical results consistently indicated that children living adjacent to Chinese health aid projects had a better nutritional status. The treatment effect of Chinese health aid projects is heterogeneous across household characteristics, types, and sectors of aid projects. Finally, vaccination may serve as a mechanism linking Chinese health aid and child nutrition in the treatment areas of recipient countries.

The economic efficiency of aid targeting

How efficient is the targeting of foreign aid to populations in need? A long literature has focused on the impacts of foreign aid, but much rarer are studies that examine how such aid is allocated within countries. We examine the extent to which donors efficiently respond to exogenous budget shocks by shifting resources toward needier districts within a given country, as predicted by theory. We use recently geocoded data on the World Bank's aid in 23 countries that crossed the lower-middle income threshold between 1995 and 2010 and thus experienced sharp aid reductions. We measure locations' need along a number of dimensions, including nighttime lights emissions, population density, conflict exposure, and child mortality. We find little evidence that aid project siting is increasingly concentrated in worse-off areas as budgets shrink; the only exception appears to be a growing share of funding in more conflict-affected areas. We further analyze the relationship of health aid to child mortality measures in six key countries, again finding little evidence of efficient responses to budget shocks. Taken together, these results suggest that large efficiency gains may be possible in the distribution of aid from the World Bank and other donors.

Food Insecurity, Missed Workdays, And Hospitalizations Among Working-Age US Adults With Diabetes

Food insecurity is associated with poor clinical outcomes among adults with diabetes, but associations with nonclinical outcomes, such as missed work, have not been well characterized. Our objective was to assess the associations between food insecurity, health-related missed workdays, and overnight hospitalizations. We pooled National Health Interview Survey data from the period 2011-18 to analyze food insecurity among 13,116 US adults ages 18-65 who had diabetes. Experiencing food insecurity, compared with being food secure, was associated with increased odds of reporting any health-related missed workdays, more than twice the rate of health-related missed workdays, and increased odds of overnight hospitalization within the prior twelve months. There was no significant association between food insecurity and the number of nights spent hospitalized. These findings underscore the broad impacts of food insecurity on health and wellness for working-age adults with diabetes. When weighing the costs and benefits of proposed interventions to address food insecurity, policy makers should consider potential benefits related to productivity in addition to implications for health care use.

Predicting road quality using high resolution satellite imagery: A transfer learning approach

Recognizing the importance of road infrastructure to promote human health and economic development, actors around the globe are regularly investing in both new roads and road improvements. However, in many contexts there is a sparsity—or complete lack—of accurate information regarding existing road infrastructure, challenging the effective identification of where investments should be made. Previous literature has focused on overcoming this gap through the use of satellite imagery to detect and map roads. In this piece, we extend this literature by leveraging satellite imagery to estimate road quality and concomitant information about travel speed. We adopt a transfer learning approach in which a convolutional neural network architecture is first trained on data collected in the United States (where data is readily available), and then “fine-tuned” on an independent, smaller dataset collected from Nigeria. We test and compare eight different convolutional neural network architectures using a dataset of 53,686 images of 2,400 kilometers of roads in the United States, in which each road segment is measured as “low”, “middle”, or “high” quality using an open, cellphone-based measuring platform. Using satellite imagery to estimate these classes, we achieve an accuracy of 80.0%, with 99.4% of predictions falling within the actual or an adjacent class. The highest performing base model was applied to a preliminary case study in Nigeria, using a dataset of 1,000 images of paved and unpaved roads. By tailoring our US-model on the basis of this Nigeria-specific data, we were able to achieve an accuracy of 94.0% in predicting the quality of Nigerian roads. A continuous case estimate also showed the ability, on average, to predict road quality to within 0.32 on a 0 to 3 scale (with higher values indicating higher levels of quality).

Trends in access to water and sanitation in Malawi: progress and inequalities (1992-2017)

Billions of people globally gained access to improved drinking water sources and sanitation in the last decades, following effort towards achieving the Millennium Development Goals. Global progress remains a general indicator as it is unclear if access is equitable across groups of the population. Agenda 2030 calling for `leaving no one behind', there is a need to focus on the variations of access in different groups of the population, especially in the context of low- and middle-income countries including Malawi. We analyzed data from Demographic Health Survey (DHS) and Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) to describe emerging trends on progress and inequalities in water supply and sanitation services over a 25-year period (1992-2017), as well as to identify the most vulnerable populations in Malawi. Data were disaggregated with geographic and socio-economic characteristics including regions, urban and rural areas, wealth and education level. Analysis of available data revealed progress in access to water and sanitation among all groups of the population. The largest progress was generally observed in the groups that were further behind at the baseline year, which likely reflects good targeting in interventions/improvements to reduce the gap in the population. Overall, results demonstrated that some segments of the population - foremost poorest Southern rural populations - still have limited access to water and are forced to practise open defecation. Finally, we suggest including standardized indicators that address safely managed drinking water and sanitation services in future surveys and studies to increase the accuracy of national estimates.

Exploring the Socioeconomic Co-benefits of Global Environment Facility Projects in Uganda Using a Quasi-Experimental Geospatial Interpolation (QGI) Approach

Since 1992, the Global Environment Facility (GEF) has mobilized over $131 billion in funds to enable developing and transitioning countries to meet the objectives of international environmental conventions and agreements. While multiple studies and reports have sought to examine the environmental impact of these funds, relatively little work has examined the potential for socioeconomic co-benefits. Leveraging a novel database on the geographic location of GEF project interventions in Uganda, this paper explores the impact of GEF projects on household assets in Uganda. It employs a new methodological approach, Quasi-experimental Geospatial Interpolation (QGI), which seeks to overcome many of the core biases and limitations of previous implementations of causal matching studies leveraging geospatial information. Findings suggest that Sustainable Forest Management (SFM) GEF projects with initial implementation dates prior to 2009 in Uganda had a positive, statistically significant impact of approximately $184.81 on the change in total household assets between 2009 and 2011. Leveraging QGI, we identify that (1) this effect was statistically significant at distances between 2 and 7 km away from GEF projects, (2) the effect was positive but not statistically significant at distances less than 2 km, and (3) there was insufficient evidence to establish the impact of projects beyond a distance of approximately 7 km.

The effects of health expenditure on infant mortality in sub-Saharan Africa: evidence from panel data analysis

INTRODUCTION

Although health expenditure in sub-Saharan African countries is the lowest compared with other regions in the world, most African countries have improved their budget allocations to health care over the past 15 years. The majority of health care sources in sub-Saharan Africa are private and largely involve out-of-pocket expenditure, which may prevent healthcare access. Access to healthcare is a known predictor of infant mortality. Therefore the objective of this study is to determine the impact of health care expenditure on infant mortality in sub-Saharan Africa.

METHODS

The study used panel data from World Bank Development Indictors (WDI) from 2000 to 2015 covering 46 countries in sub-Saharan Africa. The random effects model was selected over the fixed effects model based on the Hausman test to assess the effect of health care expenditure on infant and neonatal mortality.

RESULTS

Both public and external health care spending showed a significant negative association with infant and neonatal mortality. However, private health expenditure was not significantly associated with either infant or neonatal mortality. In this study, private expenditure includes funds from households, corporations and non-profit organizations. Public expenditure include domestic revenue as internal transfers and grants, transfers, subsidies to voluntary health insurance beneficiaries, non-profit institutions serving households or enterprise financing schemes as well as compulsory prepayment and social health insurance contributions. External health expenditure is composed of direct foreign transfers and foreign transfers distributed by government encompassing all financial inflows into the national health system from outside the country.

CONCLUSION

Health care expenditure remains a crucial component of reducing infant and neonatal mortality in sub-Saharan African countries. In the region, where health infrastructure is largely underdeveloped, increasing health expenditure will contribute to progress towards reducing infant and neonatal mortality during the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) era. Therefore, governments in the region need to increase amounts allocated to health care service delivery in order to reduce infant mortality.

Global aid for nutrition-specific and nutrition-sensitive interventions and proportion of stunted children across low- and middle-income countries: does aid matter?

Development assistance for health (DAH) has increased dramatically over the past two decades, and this increase has led to a debate on the benefits and perverse effects of scaling-up vs scaling back DAH, and the type of interventions DAH should support. Nutrition remains a contested category viewed as essential to achieving primary healthcare objectives but as falling outside of the direct ambit of the health system. Thus, despite the increase in DAH, it continues to remain an underfunded area and little is known about the relationship between aid for nutrition-specific and nutrition-sensitive interventions and the proportion of stunted children across low- and middle-income countries. We hypothesize that as nutrition-specific aid targets local needs of countries and is less fungible than nutrition-sensitive aid, it will contribute more to a reduction in the proportion of stunted children, with the steepest gains among countries that have the highest burden of malnutrition. We use fixed-effects regressions to examine the relationship between the proportion of stunted children and aid for nutrition interventions (specific and sensitive) to 116 low- and middle-income countries (2002–16). We construct our panel using the Creditor Reporting System, Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation, Food and Agriculture Organization, World Health Organization and World Development indicators databases. We find a one-dollar increase in per capita nutrition-specific aid is associated with a reduction in the proportion of stunted children by 0.004 (P < 0.05). When stratified by burden of malnutrition, a one-dollar increase in per capita nutrition-specific aid to countries with the highest burden of malnutrition is associated with sharper reductions in the proportion of stunted children (0.013, P < 0.01). We also find a significant association for per capita nutrition-sensitive aid and proportion of stunted children when per capita aid for nutrition is lagged by 3 and 4 years (0.0002, P < 0.05), suggesting a long-run association between nutrition-sensitive aid and proportion of stunted children. Our findings suggest that in spite of criticisms that development assistance fails to adequately reach its intended beneficiaries, aid for nutrition has been successful at reducing the proportion of stunted children. Our findings imply a need to scale-up nutrition funding and improve targeting of aid.

Determinants of China's development assistance for health at the sub-national level of African countries (2006-2015)

BACKGROUND

Despite the increasing interest in China's development assistance for health (DAH) in African countries, little is known regarding the distribution and determinants of China's DAH project allocation among the principle subdivisions (provinces & states) within African countries.

METHODS

We mapped the distribution of China's DAH projects in 670 principle subdivisions of 50 African countries during 2006-2015 using web-based information. The political, demographic, health and socioeconomic indicators of DAH allocation were analyzed using conditional logistic regression models. The national capital city and political leader's birth place were selected as the main political indicators, and health indicators were selected according to different fields of the DAH projects.

RESULTS

China's DAH projects (mainly China medical teams [CMTs], hospitals and anti-malaria centers) were mostly allocated to the western and eastern coasts of Africa, although CMTs were also dispatched to northern Africa. National capital cities were significantly associated with the allocation of China's DAH projects (P <  0.001). Anti-malaria centers were more likely to be allocated to principle subdivisions with larger populations (OR = 1.35), and CMTs were allocated to subdivisions with high population densities (OR = 79.01). No health-related indicators were identified to affect project allocation except for the facility delivery rate and under-five mortality rate, which were associated with hospital allocation. We also found an association between CMT allocation and the use of artemisinin-based combination therapy in children.

CONCLUSIONS

Allocation of China's DAH projects is strongly affected by political and demographic factors. Implementation of China's new DAH projects should target health and socio-economic indicators and impact metrics in scaling up tailored and cost-effective programs in Africa.

Health aid projects have both expanded and constrained the capacity of health facilities to deliver malaria services to under-five children in Malawi

OBJECTIVE

This article examines the potential pathways health aid may use to influence the availability of malaria services at a facility level and the utilisation of malaria services for children under five in Malawi.

METHODS

This work is grounded in a health services research theoretical model and combines a subnational census of health services available at Malawi health facilities with individual-level data on health service utilisation and the Government of Malawi's official source of data about health aid allocation at a child-level (n=2171). Logistic and multinomial logistic models were used to assess the relationship between health aid, malaria service readiness and malaria service utilisation. Models were adjusted for predisposing, enabling and need factors and accounted for the complex relationship using a mediation approach.

RESULTS

The evidence presented suggests that health aid translates into increased diagnostic capacity, but not overall or training readiness. Results indicate that increasing aid projects in a region boost its facilities' diagnostic readiness, increasing each facility's relative likelihood of having a medium level of diagnostic readiness by 12% (relative risk (RR)=1.118; 95% CI 1.060 to 1.179) and its likelihood of having a high level of readiness by 23% (RR=1.230; 95% CI 1.161 to 1.303), but decreasing its readiness to provide training by 8% (RR=0.925; 95% CI 0.879 to 0.974).

CONCLUSION

The results of this research highlight the fact that health aid is working to increase malaria diagnostic capacity at a facility level, but that increasing facility readiness to implement the diagnostic tests has been neglected.

Health financing at district level in Malawi: an analysis of the distribution of funds at two points in time

There is growing attention to tracking country level resource flows to health, but limited evidence on the sub-national allocation of funds. We examined district health financing in Malawi in 2006 and 2011, and equity in the allocation of funding, together with the association between financing and under five and neonatal mortality. We explored the process for receiving and allocating different funding sources at district level. We obtained domestic and external financing data from the Integrated Financial Management Information System (2006–11) and AidData (2000–12) databases. Out-of-pocket payment data came from two rounds of integrated household budget surveys (2005; 2010). Mortality data came from the Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (2006) and Demographic and Health Survey (2010). We described district level health funding by source, ran correlations between funding and outcomes and generated concentration curves and indices. 41 semi-structured interviews were conducted at the national level and in 10 districts with finance and health managers. Per capita spending from all sources varied substantially across districts and doubled between 2006 and 2011 from 7181 Kwacha to 15 312 Kwacha. In 2011, external funding accounted for 74% of funds, with domestic funding accounting for 19% of expenditure, and out of pocket (OOP) funding accounting for 7%. All funding sources were concentrated among wealthier districts, with OOP being the most pro-rich, followed by domestic expenditure and external funding. Districts with higher levels of domestic and external funding had lower levels of post-neonatal mortality, and those with higher levels of out-of-pocket payments had higher levels of 1–59 month mortality in 2006. There was no association between changes in financing and outcomes. Districts reported delayed receipt of lower-than-budgeted funds, forcing them to scale-down activities and rely on external funding. Governments need to track how resources are allocated sub-nationally to maximize equity and ensure allocations are commensurate to health need.

Supporting the development of a health benefits package in Malawi

Malawi, like many low-income and middle-income countries, has used health benefits packages (HBPs) to allocate scarce resources to key healthcare interventions. With no widely accepted method for their development, HBPs often promise more than can be delivered, given available resources. An analytical framework is developed to guide the design of HBPs that can identify the potential value of including and implementing different interventions. It provides a basis for informing meaningful discussions between governments, donors and other stakeholders around the trade-offs implicit in package design. Metrics of value, founded on an understanding of the health opportunity costs of the choices faced, are used to quantify the scale of the potential net health impact (net disability adjusted life years averted) or the amount of additional healthcare resources that would be required to deliver similar net health impacts with existing interventions (the financial value to the healthcare system). The framework can be applied to answer key questions around, for example: the appropriate scale of the HBP; which interventions represent 'best buys' and should be prioritised; where investments in scaling up interventions and health system strengthening should be made; whether the package should be expanded; costs of the conditionalities of donor funding and how objectives beyond improving population health can be considered. This is illustrated using data from Malawi. The framework was successfully applied to inform the HBP in Malawi, as a core component of the country's Health Sector Strategic Plan II 2017-2022.

The impact of aid on health outcomes in Uganda

The health sector has attracted significant foreign aid; however, evidence on the effectiveness of this support is mixed. This paper combines household panel data with geographically referenced subnational foreign aid data to investigate the contribution of health aid to health outcomes in Uganda. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we find that aid had a strong effect on reducing the productivity burden of disease indicated by days of productivity lost due to illness but was less effective in reducing disease prevalence. Consequently, health aid appeared to primarily quicken recovery times rather than prevent disease. In addition, we find that health aid was most beneficial to individuals who lived closest to aid projects. Apart from the impact of aid, we find that aid tended to not be targeted to localities with the worse socioeconomic conditions. Overall, the results highlight the importance of allocating aid close to subnational areas with greater need to enhance aid effectiveness.

Local, national, and regional viral haemorrhagic fever pandemic potential in Africa: a multistage analysis

BACKGROUND

Predicting when and where pathogens will emerge is difficult, yet, as shown by the recent Ebola and Zika epidemics, effective and timely responses are key. It is therefore crucial to transition from reactive to proactive responses for these pathogens. To better identify priorities for outbreak mitigation and prevention, we developed a cohesive framework combining disparate methods and data sources, and assessed subnational pandemic potential for four viral haemorrhagic fevers in Africa, Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever, Ebola virus disease, Lassa fever, and Marburg virus disease.

METHODS

In this multistage analysis, we quantified three stages underlying the potential of widespread viral haemorrhagic fever epidemics. Environmental suitability maps were used to define stage 1, index-case potential, which assesses populations at risk of infection due to spillover from zoonotic hosts or vectors, identifying where index cases could present. Stage 2, outbreak potential, iterates upon an existing framework, the Index for Risk Management, to measure potential for secondary spread in people within specific communities. For stage 3, epidemic potential, we combined local and international scale connectivity assessments with stage 2 to evaluate possible spread of local outbreaks nationally, regionally, and internationally.

FINDINGS

We found epidemic potential to vary within Africa, with regions where viral haemorrhagic fever outbreaks have previously occurred (eg, western Africa) and areas currently considered non-endemic (eg, Cameroon and Ethiopia) both ranking highly. Tracking transitions between stages showed how an index case can escalate into a widespread epidemic in the absence of intervention (eg, Nigeria and Guinea). Our analysis showed Chad, Somalia, and South Sudan to be highly susceptible to any outbreak at subnational levels.

INTERPRETATION

Our analysis provides a unified assessment of potential epidemic trajectories, with the aim of allowing national and international agencies to pre-emptively evaluate needs and target resources. Within each country, our framework identifies at-risk subnational locations in which to improve surveillance, diagnostic capabilities, and health systems in parallel with the design of policies for optimal responses at each stage. In conjunction with pandemic preparedness activities, assessments such as ours can identify regions where needs and provisions do not align, and thus should be targeted for future strengthening and support.

FUNDING

Paul G Allen Family Foundation, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, UK Department for International Development.