The relation between cigarette price and hand-rolling tobacco consumption in the UK: an ecological study

Trends in Daily Cigarette Consumption Among Smokers: A Population Study in England, 2008-2023

INTRODUCTION

This study aimed to estimate time trends in cigarette consumption among smokers in England between 2008 and 2023 and to explore differences by key potential moderators.

AIMS AND METHODS

We used data from 57 778 adult cigarette smokers participating in a nationally representative monthly cross-sectional survey between January 2008 and September 2023. We estimated monthly time trends in mean daily consumption of (1) any, (2) manufactured, and (3) hand-rolled cigarettes among all smokers and by main type of cigarettes smoked, smoking frequency, age, gender, occupational social grade, region, nicotine replacement therapy use, and vaping status.

RESULTS

Overall cigarette consumption fell from 13.6 [95% CI = 13.3 to 13.9] to 10.6 [10.5 to 10.8] per day between January 2008 and October 2019 (a 22% decrease), then remained stable up to September 2023. Over this period, the proportion mainly or exclusively smoking hand-rolled cigarettes increased (from 30.6% [29.1%-32.1%] in 2008 to 52.1% [49.7%-54.5%] in 2023). As a result, manufactured cigarette consumption fell by 47%, from 9.5 [9.2-9.8] per day in January 2008 to 5.0 [4.7-5.3] in September 2023, while hand-rolled cigarette consumption increased by 35%, from 4.2 [3.9-4.4] to 5.6 [5.3-5.9], respectively. The decline in overall cigarette consumption was observed across all subgroups, but was greater among non-daily smokers, younger smokers, and those who vaped.

CONCLUSIONS

Over the last 15 years, the average number of cigarettes consumed each day by smokers in England has fallen by almost a quarter, but has plateaued since October 2019. There has been a sharp decline in the number of manufactured cigarettes consumed and an increase in the number of hand-rolled cigarettes consumed, as smokers have increasingly shifted towards using hand-rolled tobacco.

IMPLICATIONS

While average cigarette consumption in England has fallen over the past 15 years, this declining trend has stalled (and reversed in some population groups) since 2019. The availability of cheap, hand-rolled tobacco appears to be undermining policies that aim to reduce smoking by raising the price of tobacco (eg, through taxation) and could be targeted to reignite the decline in cigarette consumption.

Tobacco market trends in 97 countries between 2007 and 2021

INTRODUCTION

Analysis of the tobacco market can provide valuable insights for developing tobacco control strategies. This study examines the market trends of cigarettes, cigars/cigarillos, smoking tobacco, smokeless tobacco, e-cigarettes, heated tobacco products (HTPs), and tobacco-free oral nicotine, across 97 countries between 2007 and 2021.

METHODS

We obtained annual tobacco retail value data from Euromonitor Passport and calculated the market share for each type of tobacco product. The research examined trends in retail value and market share globally, stratified by national income level, as well as in individual countries.

RESULTS

From 2007 to 2015, the growth of the global tobacco market was primarily driven by cigarette sales. However, starting in 2016, emerging products, including e-cigarettes, HTPs, and tobacco-free oral nicotine, as well as non-cigarette combustible products, including cigars/cigarillos and smoking tobacco, have been mostly responsible for the increases in the global tobacco retail value. High-income countries experienced the greatest increase in the retail value of emerging products, while middle- and low-income countries still observed rises in cigarette sales.

CONCLUSIONS

Trends in the retail value of different tobacco products varied widely during the study period, with distinct trends observed in different income levels and within individual countries. These trends can supplement prevalence data and be used to inform local tobacco control policies.

Options for modifying UK alcohol and tobacco tax: A rapid scoping review of the evidence over the period 1997-2018

Background

Increased taxation is recognised worldwide as one of the most effective interventions for decreasing tobacco and harmful alcohol use, with many variations of policy options available. This rapid scoping review was part of a NIHR-funded project ('SYNTAX' 16/105/26) and was undertaken during 2018 to inform interviews to be conducted with UK public health stakeholders with expertise in alcohol and tobacco pricing policy.

Methods

Objectives: To synthesise evidence and debates on current and potential alcohol and tobacco taxation options for the UK, and report on the underlying objectives, evidence of effects and mediating factors.Eligibility criteria: Peer-reviewed and grey literature; published 1997-2018; English language; UK-focused; include taxation interventions for alcohol, tobacco, or both. Sources of evidence: PubMed, Scopus, Cochrane Library, Google, stakeholder and colleague recommendations.Charting methods: Excel spreadsheet structured using PICO framework, recording source characteristics and content.

Results

Ninety-one sources qualified for inclusion: 49 alcohol, 36 tobacco, 6 both. Analysis identified four policy themes: changes to excise duty within existing tax structures, structural reforms, industry measures, and hypothecation of tax revenue for public benefits. For alcohol, policy options focused on raising the price of cheap, high-strength alcohol. For tobacco, policy options focused on raising the price of all tobacco products, especially the cheapest products, which are hand-rolling tobacco. For alcohol and tobacco, there were options such as levies that take money from the industries to help reduce the societal costs of their products. Due to the perceived social and economic importance of alcohol in contrast to tobacco, policy options also discussed supporting pubs and small breweries.

Conclusions

This review has identified a set of tax policy options for tobacco and alcohol, their objectives, evidence of effects and related mediating factors. The differences between alcohol and tobacco tax policy options and debates suggest an opportunity for cross-substance policy learning.

Anticipated responses to a hypothetical minimum price for cigarettes and roll-your-own tobacco: an online cross-sectional survey with cigarette smokers and ex-smokers in the UK

OBJECTIVES

As tobacco companies can circumvent tax increases, a minimum retail price per-cigarette/per-gram of roll-your-own tobacco presents an additional mechanism for governments to reduce smoking. We examined (1) anticipated responses to a hypothetical minimum price-per-cigarette/per-gram among smokers in the UK; (2) what demographic and smoker characteristics are associated with anticipated responses; and (3) whether minimum pricing may help ex-smokers stay quit.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional survey (May-July 2019).

SETTING

UK.

PARTICIPANTS

Adult cigarette smokers (n=2412) and ex-smokers (n=700).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS

Anticipated responses to a hypothetical minimum price of £10.00 for 20 cigarettes (£0.50 per-cigarette) and £13.50 for 30 grams of roll-your-own tobacco (£0.45 per-gram); approximately £0.10 per-cigarette/per-gram increases on the cheapest prices in leading UK supermarkets (January 2019). Smokers were presented with ten options (eg, 'Try to quit') and asked which they would do (Yes/No) and then which they would most likely do. Ex-smokers were asked to what extent the minimum prices would help them stay quit (A lot vs Lesser agreement).

RESULTS

Among smokers, 55.6% said they would most likely smoke the same amount, 10.7% they would smoke less, 9.5% they would try to quit and 5.8% they would use e-cigarettes more often. Anticipated reactions were associated with demography and smoker characteristics, for example, C2DE (lower social grade) smokers were less likely than ABC1 (higher social grade) smokers to say they would smoke the same as they do now (ORAdj=0.74, 95% CI 0.62 to 0.88). Among ex-smokers, 38.5% said the minimum prices would help them stay quit 'A lot', more so among C2DE than ABC1 participants (ORAdj=1.80, 95% CI 1.30 to 2.49).

CONCLUSIONS

In response to a hypothetical minimum price for cigarettes and roll-your-own tobacco, approximately a fifth of smokers in the UK indicated they would smoke less or quit and almost two-fifths of ex-smokers indicated the prices would help them stay quit.

Effect of UK plain tobacco packaging and minimum pack size legislation on tobacco and nicotine product switching behaviour

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The introduction of plain tobacco packaging and minimum pack size legislation in the United Kingdom between May 2016 and May 2017 was accompanied by substantial changes in tobacco product diversity and pricing. This study investigates the extent to which these changes were associated with consumer switching between tobacco product types and price segments, and from tobacco to non-tobacco nicotine products.

DESIGN

Longitudinal study (changing trends in product and price choices) and survey (reasons for consumer choices).

SETTING

Great Britain PARTICIPANTS: We used 11 695 British households from Kantar Worldpanel who purchased tobacco and non-tobacco nicotine products from March 2011 to December 2017.

MEASUREMENTS

Product choice was defined using household's monthly purchases of tobacco (cigarettes, roll-your-own (RYO) tobacco, cigar/cigarillo and pipe tobacco) and non-tobacco nicotine products (e-cigarettes and nicotine replacement therapy), while price was defined using price paid by pack size and by price quartiles. Our switching analysis considered three switching alternatives: switching to a different tobacco product or to a combination of tobacco products, switching to any non-nicotine tobacco product, and switching out of our dataset. We explored changes in price quartile purchasing behaviour using binary variables for whether a household purchased or not from each price quartile monthly. Finally, self-declared consumer's choice was assessed through survey responses.

FINDINGS

The introduction of plain packaging and minimum pack sizes coincided with major switching to purchasing of pack sizes of 20 cigarettes or 30 g or larger RYO tobacco (>99% of purchases in December 2017) and a migration towards lower-price cigarettes, as for cigarettes, around 80% of purchases were in the lowest price quartiles at the end of the study period compared to about 50% at the start of the study period. During the first 6 months of implementation there was also a marked increase in the likelihood that cigarette smokers would switch to non-tobacco nicotine (OR 1.74, 95% CI: 1.18 to 2.57), predominantly e-cigarettes, compared with the period before May 2016. Survey results suggest that price was the main driver of changes in purchasing behaviour.

CONCLUSIONS

Implementation of plain packaging and minimum pack size legislation in the UK appears to have been associated with tobacco users switching to lower price tobacco products and to e-cigarettes.

Price and income elasticities of demand for cigarette consumption: what is the association of price and economic activity with cigarette consumption in Spain from 1957 to 2016?

OBJECTIVES

Extensive empirical and theoretical studies have been devoted to analyzing the relationship between tobacco and income. The price and income elasticities of demand for cigarette consumption are the main focus of studies in this body of literature. However, few empirical studies exist that analyze how economic growth affects the cigarette market, and no one has studied the effects of economic expansions and recessions. Spain, as in the other countries of the European Union, has suffered a strong recession since 2008. Therefore, this article aims to detect if income elasticity takes different values in economic growth and recession and, in addition, to check whether price elasticity in Spain is consistent with previous studies.

STUDY DESIGN

This is an observational epidemiological study.

METHODS

In this article, the price and income elasticities of demand for cigarette consumption are measured for the Spanish cigarette market using time series data from 1957 to 2016 and by applying a non-linear autoregressive dynamics lag model. The novel specification proposed in this study is the determination of the possible effects of asymmetries in the economic shocks on cigarette consumption.

RESULTS

Our results reveal that cigarette consumption maintains a notable asymmetric relationship. In particular, our results show that in expansion shocks, cigarette consumption increases (a 10% economic growth is associated with a 4.05% increase in cigarette consumption), whereas in recession shocks, cigarette consumption decreases dramatically, with a more pronounced pattern in recession phases than in expansion phases (a 10% economic decline is associated with a 58.16% decrease in cigarette consumption). On the other hand, price elasticity maintains the same behavior shown in the previous literature (a 10% price increase is associated with a 2% decrease in cigarette consumption).

CONCLUSIONS

Higher cigarette prices are associated with decreased smoking. In addition, the economic recession helps in decreasing cigarette consumption. Therefore, it is strongly recommended that tax authorities have our results in mind before establishing health policies. If the authorities do not, it is possible that they will not obtain the expected results in terms of decreased tobacco consumption.

Trends in and Correlates of Use of Roll-Your-Own Cigarettes: A Population Study in England 2008-2017

INTRODUCTION

Understanding the use of cheaper roll-your-own (RYO) cigarettes may have implications for tobacco tax policy. We examined trends in RYO cigarette use in England between 2008 and 2017, and characterized users' sociodemographic and smoking profiles.

METHODS

We used data from 211 469 respondents to a survey representative of the adult (≥16 years) population. In current smokers across the entire study period (n = 43 389), we assessed multivariable associations between cigarette type (RYO or factory-made [FM]) and sociodemographic and smoking characteristics. Among current smokers in 2008 and 2017 (n = 7685), we tested interactions between year and cigarette type to assess the stability of each characteristic.

RESULTS

Between 2008 and 2017, FM cigarette use declined from 15.3% to 9.2% whereas RYO use increased from 6.7% to 8.1%. Greater odds of RYO use were observed among younger, male smokers from lower social grades, who were more addicted and used electronic cigarettes (ORrange = 1.28-1.86, p < .001). Lower odds of RYO use were observed among nondaily smokers, those with high motivation to stop, and higher spending on smoking (ORrange = 0.46-0.89, p ≤ .001). The RYO smoker profile was relatively stable between 2008 and 2017. However, compared with FM use, RYO use increased in younger (p < .001) and female (p = .019) smokers, and there was a relatively smaller decline in the proportion cutting down or trying to quit (p = .004).

CONCLUSION

In England, RYO use increased when overall smoking prevalence and FM use decreased. The profile of RYO smokers remained relatively stable, with users typically younger, male, more addicted, deprived, spending less on smoking, and less inclined to quit than FM smokers.

IMPLICATIONS

This population-based study provides novel insight into recent trends in RYO use in England, providing an up-to-date understanding of the profile of RYO smokers. Without the consistent application of tax across the range of combustible products, smokers who are more dependent are able to capitalize on the lower cost of RYO in order to continue smoking, undermining the potential benefit of taxation on cessation.

Changes in roll-your-own tobacco and cigarette sales volume and prices before, during and after plain packaging legislation in the UK

BACKGROUND

Plain packaging and minimum pack size legislation for tobacco products was introduced in the UK in May 2016, with a 1-year sell-off period until May 2017, during which both fully branded and plain packs of various sizes were legally available. This study investigates trends in prices of roll-your-own tobacco (RYO) before, during and after implementation of this legislation, and compares trends with those observed in the cigarette market.

METHODS

We used Nielsen Scantrack data for the period from March 2013 to June 2018 to describe trends in UK inflation-adjusted prices and volumes of both RYO and cigarettes, and linear regression to estimate changes in prices associated with the introduction of plain packaging and the minimum pack sizes of 30 g RYO and 20 cigarettes.

RESULTS

In contrast to a downward trend in cigarette sales volumes, RYO volumes rose throughout the study period. By the time plain packs accounted for 75% or more of sales, the average price of products sold in equivalent pack sizes had increased, relative to average prices in the year before implementation and with adjustment for tax changes, from 34.9 to 38.8 pence per gram for RYO (mean difference 4.26, 95% CI 3.99 to 4.53 pence, 12% increase), and from 38.6 to 41.13 pence for cigarettes (mean difference 2.53, 95% CI 2.24 to 2.83 pence, 7% increase) per cigarette.

CONCLUSIONS

New legislation resulted in higher prices for RYO and manufactured cigarettes. However, sales volumes of RYO continued to increase throughout the study period, perhaps because RYO remains a less expensive means of smoking tobacco.

Impact of tobacco tax increases and industry pricing on smoking behaviours and inequalities: a mixed-methods study

Background

Increasing tobacco prices through taxation is very effective for reducing smoking prevalence and inequalities. For optimum effect, understanding how the tobacco industry and smokers respond is essential. Tobacco taxation changes occurred in the UK over the study period, including annual increases, a shift in structure from ad valorem to specific taxation and relatively higher increases on roll-your-own tobacco than on factory-made cigarettes.

Objectives

Understanding tobacco industry pricing strategies in response to tax changes and the impact of tax on smokers’ behaviour, including tax evasion and avoidance, as well as the effect on smoking inequalities. Synthesising findings to inform how taxation can be improved as a public health intervention.

Design

Qualitative analysis and evidence synthesis (commercial and Nielsen data) and longitudinal and aggregate cross-sectional analyses (International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation Project data).

Setting

The UK, from 2002 to 2016.

Data sources and participants

Data were from the tobacco industry commercial literature and retail tobacco sales data (Nielsen, New York, NY, USA). Participants were a longitudinal cohort (with replenishment) of smokers and ex-smokers from 10 surveys of the International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation Project (around 1500 participants per survey).

Main outcome measures

(1) Tobacco industry pricing strategies, (2) sales volumes and prices by segments over time and (3) smokers’ behaviours, including products purchased, sources, brands, consumption, quit attempts, success and sociodemographic differences.

Review methods

Tobacco industry commercial literature was searched for mentions of tobacco products and price segments, with 517 articles extracted.

Results

The tobacco industry increased prices on top of tax increases (overshifting), particularly on premium products, and, recently, the tobacco industry overshifted more on cheap roll-your-own tobacco than on factory-made cigarettes. Increasingly, price rises were from industry revenue generation rather than tax. The tobacco industry raised prices gradually to soften impact; this was less possible with larger tax increases. Budget measures to reduce cheap product availability failed due to new cheap factory-made products, price marking and small packs. In 2014, smokers could buy factory-made (roll-your-own tobacco) cigarettes at real prices similar to 2002. Exclusive roll-your-own tobacco and mixed factory-made cigarettes and roll-your-own tobacco use increased, whereas exclusive factory-made cigarette use decreased, alongside increased cheap product use, rather than quitting. Quitting behaviours were associated with higher taxes. Smokers consumed fewer factory-made cigarettes and reduced roll-your-own tobacco weight over time. Apparent illicit purchasing did not increase. Disadvantaged and dependent smokers struggled with tobacco affordability and were more likely to smoke cheaper products, but disadvantage did not affect quit success.

Limitations

Different for each data set; triangulation increased confidence.

Conclusions

The tobacco industry overshifted taxes and increased revenues, even when tax increases were high. Therefore, tobacco taxes can be further increased to reduce price differentials and recoup public health costs. Government strategies on illicit tobacco appear effective. Large, sudden tax increases would reduce the industry’s ability to manipulate prices, decrease affordability and increase quitting behaviours. More disadvantaged, and dependent, smokers need more help with quitting.

Future work

Assessing the impact of tax changes made since 2014; changing how tax changes are introduced (e.g. sudden intermittent or smaller continuous); and tax changes on tobacco initiation.

Funding

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Public Health Research programme and will be published in full in Public Health Research; Vol. 8, No. 6. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Availability and Use of Cheap Tobacco in the United Kingdom 2002-2014: Findings From the International Tobacco Control Project

Introduction

Raising tobacco prices is the most effective population-level intervention for reducing smoking, but this is undermined by the availability of cheap tobacco. This study monitors trends in cheap tobacco use among adult smokers in the United Kingdom between 2002 and 2014 via changes in product type, purchase source, and prices paid.

Methods

Weighted data from 10 waves of the International Tobacco Control policy evaluation study were used. This is a longitudinal cohort study of adult smokers with replenishment; 6169 participants provided 15812 responses. Analyses contrasted (1) product type: roll-your-own (RYO) tobacco, factory-made packs (FM-P), and factory-made cartons (FM-C); (2) purchase source: UK store-based sources (e.g., supermarkets and convenience stores) with non-UK/nonstore sources representing tax avoidance/evasion (e.g., outside the UK, duty free, and informal sellers); and (3) prices paid (inflation-adjusted to 2014 values). Generalized estimating equations tested linear changes over time.

Results

(1) RYO use increased significantly over time as FM decreased. (2) UK store-based sources constituted approximately 80% of purchases over time, with no significant increases in tax avoidance/evasion. (3) Median RYO prices were less than half that of FM, with FM-C cheaper than FM-P. Non-UK/nonstore sources were cheapest. Price increases of all three product types from UK store-based sources from 2002 to 2014 were statistically significant but not substantial. Wide (and increasing for FM-P) price ranges meant each product type could be purchased in 2014 at prices below their 2002 medians from UK store-based sources.

Conclusions

Options exist driving UK smokers to minimize their tobacco expenditure; smokers do so largely by purchasing cheap tobacco products from UK stores.

Implications

The effectiveness of price increases as a deterrent to smoking is being undermined by the availability of cheap tobacco such as roll-your-own tobacco and cartons of packs of factory-made cigarettes. Wide price ranges allowed smokers in 2014 to easily obtain cigarettes at prices comparable to 12 years prior, without resorting to tax avoidance or evasion. UK store-based sources accounted for 80% or more of all tobacco purchases between 2002 and 2014, suggesting little change in tax avoidance or evasion over time. There was a widening price range between the cheapest and most expensive factory-made cigarettes.

Difference between recommended retail price and sales price for tobacco products in independent and convenience (small) retailers before and after the introduction of standardised tobacco packaging in the UK

AIM

Recommended retail price (RRP) is a marketing strategy used by tobacco companies to maintain competitiveness, communicate product positioning and drive sales. We explored small retailer adherence to RRP before and after the introduction of the Standardised Packaging of Tobacco Products Regulations in the UK (fully implemented on 20 May 2017) which mandated standardised packaging of cigarettes and rolling tobacco, set minimum pack/pouch sizes and prohibited price-marking.

METHOD

Monthly electronic point of sale data from 500 small retailers in England, Scotland and Wales were analysed. From May 2016 to October 2017, we monitored 20 of the best-selling fully branded tobacco products (15 factory-made cigarettes, 5 rolling tobacco) and their standardised equivalents. Adherence to RRP was measured as the average difference (%) between monthly RRPs and sales prices by pack type (fully branded vs standardised), price-marking on packaging and price segment.

RESULTS

The average difference between RRP and sales price increased from +0.36% above RRP (SD=0.72) in May 2016, when only fully branded packs were sold, to +1.37% in October 2017 (SD=0.30), when standardised packs were mandatory. Increases above RRP for fully branded packs increased as they were phased out, with deviation greater for non-price-marked packs and premium products.

DISCUSSION

Despite tobacco companies emphasising the importance of RRP, small retailers implemented small increases above RRP as standardised packaging was introduced. Consequently, any intended price changes by tobacco companies in response to the legislation (ie, to increase affordability or brand positioning) may be confounded by retailer behaviour, and such deviation may increase consumer price sensitivity.

Analysis of tobacco industry pricing strategies in 23 European Union countries using commercial pricing data

Background

The tobacco industry (TI) can act to undermine the impact of tobacco tax increases by adopting various pricing strategies. Little is known about strategies used across the European Union (EU), except for the UK.

Aim

To examine pricing strategies adopted by the TI in the EU, and whether they differ by cigarette price segment, or between manufactured and roll-your-own (RYO) cigarettes.

Methods

This is a longitudinal analysis of commercial pricing data for manufactured and RYO cigarettes from 23 EU countries in 2006–2017. Price and revenue trends were explored. Linear regression estimated the average annual change in revenue, and linear fixed-effects panel regression models were used to explore the association between changes in median revenue (net of tax and adjusted for inflation) and tax increases in different price segments of manufactured cigarettes.

Results

Over the 11-year period price gaps were observed in all countries. The average annual adjusted median net revenue per pack increased in 19 of 23 countries for manufactured and RYO cigarettes. A tax increase was associated with a significant decrease of −€0.09 in adjusted median net revenue per pack (95% CI −0.16 to −0.03) in the cheap cigarette price segment, while no change was detected in the expensive cigarette price segment (−€0.05, 95% CI −0.11 to 0.01).

Conclusion

Across the EU, pricing strategies adopted by the TI maintained or increased price gaps and retained cheaper tobacco products in the market, diminishing the impact of tobacco tax increases. Further strengthening of tobacco taxation policy is needed to maximise public health impact.

Pricing of tobacco products during, and after, the introduction of standardized packaging: an observational study of retail price data from independent and convenience (small) retailers in the United Kingdom

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Tobacco companies claimed that standardized packaging, phased in/introduced May 2016-May 2017, would reduce prices and increase consumption. We: (1) describe changes in price-per-cigarette and price-per-gram during, and after, the introduction of standardized packaging; (2) describe price changes by cigarette price segment; and (3) analyse price changes by stage of implementation.

DESIGN

An observational study, using electronic point-of-sale data, monitored price trends in three periods: (1) May-September 2016, start of transition period; (2) October 2016-May 2017, when fully branded and standardized products were sold and duty escalators implemented; and (3) June-October 2017, when standardized packaging was mandatory.

SETTING

United Kingdom.

PARTICIPANTS

Small retailers (n = 500) stratified by region and deprivation. Data were monitored for 20 leading fully branded tobacco products [15 factory-made cigarettes (FMC), 5 roll-your-own (RYO)] and their standardized equivalents.

MEASUREMENT

Price-per-cigarette and price-per-gram, based on monthly average Recommended Retail Price (RRP) and actual sale price, adjusted for inflation using the Consumer Pricing Index (CPIH). Net changes (£GBP, %) were analysed by product type (FMC versus RYO) and FMC price segment (value, mid-price, premium).

FINDINGS

Between May 2016 and October 2017, the average inflation-adjusted RRP/price-per-cigarette and price-per-gram increased for FMC (all price segments) and RYO. For example, sales price-per-cigarette increased +4.64%, with the largest increases for value (+6.81%), premium (+5.32%) and mid-price FMCs (+3.30%). Net sales price-per-cigarette and price-per-gram increases were largest in period 2, when fully branded and standardized products were sold and duty escalators were implemented (FMC = +4.70%; RYO = +3.75%). There were small decreases in sales price-per-cigarette and price-per-gram once standardized packaging became mandatory (FMC = -1.14%; RYO = -0.88%).

CONCLUSION

In the United Kingdom, the price of leading roll-your-own and factory-made cigarette brands sold by small retailers increased as standardized packaging was phased in, with increases larger than expected through duty escalation.

Differential exposure to 33 toxic elements through cigarette smoking, based on the type of tobacco and rolling paper used

Environmental pollution due to various elements is increasing all across the planet owing to their use in industrial processes. The tobacco plants and the vegetables used in the manufacturing of smoking paper may accumulate these elements from the environment. Thus, tobacco and smoking paper may be relevant contributors among the content of elements in cigarettes, including some emerging pollutants such as rare earth elements (REEs). Thirty-two elements related to hi-tech industrial processes were analyzed in tobacco, rolling paper, and filters (n = 257 samples) by ICP-MS. A variety of industrial brands and "roll-your-own" cigarette papers were considered. The potential maximum daily exposure to these elements by a hypothetical heavy smoker was calculated for each type of cigarette. We found significant differences in the levels of most elements, both in the tobacco and in the paper. Black tobacco cigarettes contained the maximum levels. We found that the paper used in roll-your-own cigarettes may significantly modify their concentration of elements. Fast-burning, bleached, and flavored papers also contribute to higher levels of these pollutants. Thus, the differences in theoretical exposure depending on the type of cigarette consumed-either branded or hand-rolled-may be very striking, of up to 35-40 times. In addition to the number of cigarettes consumed per day, it is necessary to consider the type of cigarette consumed to assess the risk of exposure to toxic elements. Tobacco paper is a prominent source of exposure to toxic elements. Cigarette smoke is another source of exposure to emerging contaminants such as REE.

Tobacco smoking and nicotine delivery alternatives: patterns of product use and perceptions in 13 countries

Background: Smoking tobacco products remains a significant public health problem. The Foundation for a Smoke-Free World commissioned a 13-country survey to gain a clearer understanding of the current landscape of smoking behavior and preferences across the world. Methods: Over 17,000 participants in 13 countries, representing different regions and income groups, answered questions on their smoking patterns and product use, their social context, their motivation to smoke, quit, or switch, and their perception of risks of products and substances. Rim weighting was done for each country to align responses with population demographics, and an additional 200 smokers for each country were surveyed to achieve sufficient sample size for sub-analyses of smoker data. Results: The observed prevalence of smoking ranged from an age-adjusted high of 57.5% in Lebanon to 8.4% in New Zealand among men, with lower rates for women. The majority of smokers were between 25-54 years old, had daily routines and social patterns associated with smoking, used boxed cigarettes, and rated their health more poorly compared to never smokers. Among a range of products and substances, smokers tended to give both cigarettes and nicotine the highest harm ratings. Smokers in high income countries were largely familiar with electronic nicotine delivery systems; the most commonly given reasons for using them were to cut down or quit smoking. A majority of smokers had tried to quit at least once, and while many tried without assistance, motivations, intentions, and methods for smoking cessation, including professional help, nicotine replacement therapies or medications, or electronic cigarettes, varied among countries. Conclusions: Smoking is deeply integrated in smokers' lives worldwide. Although a majority of smokers have tried to quit, and are concerned for their health, they do not seek help. Smokers lack understanding of the harmful components of smoking tobacco products and the risk profile of alternatives.

Tobacco smoking and nicotine delivery alternatives: patterns of product use and perceptions in 13 countries

Background: Smoking tobacco products remains a significant public health problem. The Foundation for a Smoke-Free World commissioned a 13-country survey to gain a clearer understanding of the current landscape of smoking behavior and preferences across the world. Methods: Over 17,000 participants in 13 countries, representing different regions and income groups, answered questions on their smoking patterns and product use, their social context, their motivation to smoke, quit, or switch, and their perception of risks of products and substances. Rim weighting was done for each country to align responses with population demographics, and an additional 200 smokers for each country were surveyed to achieve sufficient sample size for sub-analyses of smoker data. Results: The observed prevalence of smoking ranged from an age-adjusted high of 57.5% in Lebanon to 8.4% in New Zealand among men, with lower rates for women. The majority of smokers were between 25-54 years old, had daily routines and social patterns associated with smoking, used boxed cigarettes, and rated their health more poorly compared to never smokers. Among a range of products and substances, smokers tended to give both cigarettes and nicotine the highest harm ratings. Smokers in high income countries were largely familiar with electronic nicotine delivery systems; the most commonly given reasons for using them were to cut down or quit smoking. A majority of smokers had tried to quit at least once, and while many tried without assistance, motivations, intentions, and methods for smoking cessation, including professional help, nicotine replacement therapies or medications, or electronic cigarettes, varied among countries. Conclusions: Smoking is deeply integrated in smokers' lives worldwide. Although a majority of smokers have tried to quit, and are concerned for their health, they do not seek help. Smokers lack understanding of the harmful components of smoking tobacco products and the risk profile of alternatives.

Roll-your-own cigarette use and smoking cessation behaviour: a cross-sectional population study in England

OBJECTIVES

Roll-your-own (RYO) cigarettes have become popular in the UK and reduce the cost of smoking, potentially mitigating the impact of tax increases on quitting. We examined whether RYO cigarette use was associated with reduced motivation to quit smoking, incidence of quit attempts and quit success.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional survey.

SETTING

England.

PARTICIPANTS

38 590 adults who reported currently smoking or having stopped within the past 12 months.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Motivation to quit smoking, quit attempt in the last year, motives for quitting and quit success were regressed onto RYO cigarette use, adjusting for sociodemographic variables and level of cigarette addiction. Mediation by weekly spending on smoking was tested.

RESULTS

Compared with manufactured cigarette smokers, RYO smokers had lower odds of high motivation to quit (OR=0.77, 95% CI 0.73 to 0.81) or having made a quit attempt (OR=0.87, 95% CI 0.84 to 0.91). Among those who had attempted to quit smoking, quit success did not differ by cigarette type (OR=1.00, 95% CI 0.89 to 1.12), but RYO smokers were less likely to report cost of smoking as a motive to quit (OR=0.68, 95% CI 0.61 to 0.74). Spending on smoking mediated the association between RYO use and quit attempts (β=-0.02, SE=0.003, 95% CI -0.03 to -0.02).

CONCLUSIONS

In England, compared with smokers of manufactured cigarettes, RYO cigarette smokers appear to have lower motivation to quit and lower incidence of quit attempts but similar success of quit attempts. The lower cost of RYO smoking appears to mediate the lower incidence of quit attempts among RYO users.

Comparison between Online and Offline Price of Tobacco Products Using Novel Datasets

Price of tobacco products has traditionally been relevant both for the industry, to respond to policy changes, and for governments, as an effective tobacco control measure. However, monitoring prices across a wide range of brands and brand variants requires access to expensive commercial sales databases. This study aims to investigate the comparability of average tobacco prices from two commercial sources and an in-house monitoring database which provides daily data in real time at minimal cost. We used descriptive and regression analysis to compare the monthly average numbers of brands, brand variants, products and prices of cigarettes and hand-rolling tobacco using commercial data from Nielsen Scantrack and Kantar Worldpanel, and an online price database (OPD) created in Nottingham, for the period from May 2013 to February 2017. There were marked differences in the number of products tracked in the three data sources. Nielsen was the most comprehensive and Kantar Worldpanel the least. Though average prices were very similar between the three datasets, Nottingham OPD prices were the highest and Kantar Worldpanel the lowest. However, regression analysis demonstrated that after adjustment for differences in product range, price differences between the datasets were very small. After allowing for differences in product range these data sources offer representative prices for application in price research. Online price tracking offers an inexpensive and near real-time alternative to the commercial datasets.

Individualised tobacco affordability in the UK 2002-2014: findings from the International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation Project

OBJECTIVE

The existing measures of tobacco affordability (smokers' purchasing power for tobacco) use national estimates of income and average cigarette prices, and exclude roll-your-own (RYO) tobacco. This study developed an individualised measure of tobacco affordability using smokers' own incomes and factory-made (FM) or RYO tobacco purchase prices, and explored how it was impacted by taxation changes, individual characteristics and purchase patterns.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional survey data collated from 10 waves of a longitudinal cohort study.

DATA SOURCES

Adult smokers (n=4062) from the International Tobacco Control Policy Evaluation Project United Kingdom (UK), surveyed between 2002 and 2014, providing 8943 observations over 10 surveys.

ANALYSIS

Affordability was calculated as the percentage of annual income remaining with the individuals after their annual tobacco expenditure. Multilevel linear regression models were used with affordability as the outcome using time, sex, age, geographical region, ethnicity, education, nicotine dependence and tobacco purchase source as the predictor variables.

RESULTS

Affordability of FM cigarettes decreased significantly from 91.5% (±95% CI: 91.0% to 91.9%) in 2002 to 87.8% (87.0% to 88.5%) in 2014; and RYO from 96.3% (95.7% to 96.9%) in 2006 to 93.7% (93.0% to 94.4%) in 2014. Affordability was significantly lower for FM than RYO. Year-on-year decreases were not statistically significant. Tobacco was more affordable for males, those with higher education, less dependent smokers and those purchasing from non-store (potentially illicit) or non-UK sources.

CONCLUSIONS

An individualised measure of tobacco affordability provided useful insights on the impact of tobacco taxes, social inequalities and purchase patterns in the UK. Although tobacco became less affordable, the annual rate of decline was low, suggesting annual tax rises were not large enough.

Tobacco industry strategies undermine government tax policy: evidence from commercial data

OBJECTIVE

Taxation equitably reduces smoking, the leading cause of health inequalities. The tobacco industry (TI) can, however, undermine the public health gains realised from tobacco taxation through its pricing strategies. This study aims to examine contemporary TI pricing strategies in the UK and implications for tobacco tax policy.

DESIGN

Review of commercial literature and longitudinal analysis of tobacco sales and price data.

SETTING

A high-income country with comprehensive tobacco control policies and high tobacco taxes (UK).

PARTICIPANTS

2009 to 2015 Nielsen Scantrak electronic point of sale systems data.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Tobacco segmentation; monthly prices, sales volumes of and net revenue from roll-your-own (RYO) and factory-made (FM) cigarettes by segment; use of price-marking and pack sizes.

RESULTS

The literature review and sales data concurred that both RYO and FM cigarettes were segmented by price. Despite regular tax increases, average real prices for the cheapest FM and RYO segments remained steady from 2013 while volumes grew. Low prices were maintained through reductions in the size of packs and price-marking. Each year, at the point the budget is implemented, the TI drops its revenue by up to 18 pence per pack, absorbing the tax increases (undershifting). Undershifting is most marked for the cheapest segments.

CONCLUSIONS

The TI currently uses a variety of strategies to keep tobacco cheap. The implementation of standardised packaging will prevent small pack sizes and price-marking but further changes in tax policy are needed to minimise the TI's attempts to prevent sudden price increases.