Importance and added value of functional impairment to predict mortality: a cohort study in Swedish medical inpatients

Impact of malnutrition evaluated by the mini nutritional assessment on the prognosis of acute hospitalized older adults

Background

Malnutrition is prevalent among hospitalized older patients. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the association between nutritional status [assessed using the Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA) and serum albumin levels] and adverse outcomes in hospitalized older patients. We also aimed to compare the predictive utility of our findings.

Methods

This retrospective cohort study was conducted between January 2016 and June 2020. In total, 808 older patients (aged ≥ 65 years, mean age 82.8 ± 6.70 years, 45.9% male) admitted to the acute geriatric unit were included in our sample. Comprehensive geriatric assessments, including the MNA, were performed. Malnutrition and risk of malnutrition were defined as MNA < 17, albumin < 3.5 g/dL and 17 ≤ MNA ≤ 24, 3.5 g/dL ≤ albumin < 3.9 g/dL, respectively. The primary outcome was that patients could not be discharged to their own homes. The secondary outcomes were overall all-cause mortality, 3-month all-cause mortality, and incidence of geriatric syndrome, including delirium, falls, and newly developed or worsening pressure sores during hospitalization.

Results

Poor nutritional status was associated with older age; female sex; admission from the emergency room; high risk of pressure sores and falls; lower physical and cognitive function; higher depressive score; and lower serum albumin, protein, cholesterol, and hemoglobin levels. In the fully adjusted model, malnutrition assessed using the MNA predicted discharge to nursing homes or long-term care hospitals [odds ratio (OR) 5.822, 95% confidence interval (CI): 2.092-16.199, P = 0.001], geriatric syndrome (OR 2.069, 95% CI: 1.007-4.249, P = 0.048), and 3-month mortality (OR 3.519, 95% CI: 1.254-9.872, P = 0.017). However, malnutrition assessed using albumin levels could only predict 3-month mortality (OR 3.848, 95% CI: 1.465-10.105, P = 0.006). The MNA predicted 3-month mortality with higher precision than serum albumin levels (P = 0.034) when comparing the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve.

Conclusion

Nutritional risk measured by the MNA was an independent predictor of various negative outcomes in hospitalized older patients. Poor nutritional status assessed by serum albumin levels, the most widely used biochemical marker, could predict mortality, but not the development of geriatric syndrome or discharge location reflecting functional status.

Exploring red cell distribution width as a potential risk factor in emergency bowel surgery—A retrospective cohort study

Increased preoperative red cell distribution width (RDW) is associated with higher mortality following non-cardiac surgery in patients older than 65 years. Little is known if this association holds for all adult emergency laparotomy patients and whether it affects 30-day or long-term mortality. Thus, we examined the relationship between increased RDW and postoperative mortality. Furthermore, we investigated the prognostic worth of anisocytosis and explored a possible association between increased RDW and frailty in this cohort. We conducted a retrospective, single centre National Emergency Laparotomy Audit (NELA) database study at St Mary’s Hospital Imperial NHS Trust between January 2014 and April 2018. A total of 356 patients were included. Survival models were developed using Cox regression analysis, whereas RDW and frailty were analysed using multivariable logistic regression. Underlying model assumptions were checked, including discrimination and calibration. We internally validated our models using bootstrap resampling. There were 33 (9.3%) deaths within 30-days and 72 (20.2%) overall. Median RDW values for 30-day mortality were 13.8% (IQR 13.1%-15%) in survivors and 14.9% (IQR 13.7%-16.1%) in non-survivors, p = 0.007. Similarly, median RDW values were lower in overall survivors (13.7% (IQR 13%-14.7%) versus 14.9% (IQR 13.9%-15.9%) (p<0.001)). Mortality increased across quartiles of RDW, as did the proportion of frail patients. Anisocytosis was not associated with 30-day mortality but demonstrated a link with overall death rates. Increasing RDW was associated with a higher probability of frailty for 30-day (Odds ratio (OR) 4.3, 95% CI 1.22–14.43, (p = 0.01)) and overall mortality (OR 4.9, 95% CI 1.68–14.09, (p = 0.001)). We were able to show that preoperative anisocytosis is associated with greater long-term mortality after emergency laparotomy. Increasing RDW demonstrates a relationship with frailty. Given that RDW is readily available at no additional cost, future studies should prospectively validate the role of RDW in the NELA cohort nationally.

Nutritional and Functional Status as a Predictor of Short-Term Mortality in Hospitalized Elderly Patients in a Tertiary Care Hospital

Context

Elderly people are at a high risk of malnutrition leading to poor outcomes and quality of life.

Aims

We aimed to find an association between the nutritional and functional status of hospitalized elderly patients and the three-month all-cause mortality among them.

Settings and design

A cross-sectional study was carried out at a tertiary care hospital in North India from July 2018 to December 2019.

Methods and material

A total of 177 patients were recruited for the study, and their demographic and clinical data were collected on a preformed questionnaire. Comorbidity, nutritional status, functional status, and depression were calculated using the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), Mini Nutritional Assessment (MNA) form, Katz Index of Independence in Activities of Daily Living (Katz ADL), and Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS), respectively.

Statistical analysis

A Chi-square test was used to find the association between different qualitative variables. A regression model was used to find out the odds for mortality. Statistical significance was set at p<0.05.

Results

According to the MNA score, 49.7% (88) were at risk of malnutrition, and 22.6%(40) were malnourished. Malnutrition, Charlson Comorbidity Index, and the functional status of the patients were found to be associated with three-month mortality, with a p value of 0.005, 0.017, and 0.021, respectively. On regression analysis, malnutrition (odds ratio (OR): 3.796; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.178-12.234; p=0.025) and the functional status (OR: 3.160; 95% CI: 1.256-7.952; p=0.015) of the study participants were found to have higher odds for three-month all-cause mortality.

Conclusions

Nutritional status and ADL assessed at the time of discharge are good prognostic markers of health outcomes in the elderly population.

Key message

ADL and nutritional assessment at admission and discharge should be routinely incorporated in the geriatric assessment of hospitalized patients to triage and prognosticate.

The Role of Frailty in Predicting 3 and 6 Months Functional Decline in Hospitalized Older Adults: Findings from a Secondary Analysis

Frailty represents one of the most relevant geriatric syndromes in the 21st century and is a predictor of adverse outcomes in hospitalized older adult, such as, functional decline (FD). This study aimed to examine if frailty, evaluated with the Frailty Index (FI), can predict FD during and after hospitalization (3 and 6 months). Secondary data analysis of a prospective cohort study of 101 hospitalized older adults was performed. The primary outcome was FD at discharge, 3 and 6 months. The FI was created from an original database using 40 health deficits. Functional decline models for each time-point were examined using a binary logistic regression. The prevalence of frailty was 57.4% with an average score of 0.25 (±0.11). Frail patients had significant and higher values for functional decline and social support for all time periods and more hospital readmission in the 3 month period. Multivariable regression analysis showed that FI was a predictor of functional decline at discharge (OR = 1.07, 95% CI = 1.02–1.14) and 3-month (OR = 1.05, 95% CI = 1.01–1.09) but not 6-month (OR = 1.03, 95% CI = 0.99–1.09) follow-up. Findings suggest that frailty at admission of hospitalized older adults can predict functional decline at discharge and 3 months post-discharge.

Risk Factors for Mortality in Nursing Home Residents: An Observational Study

Purpose: Identifying mortality risk factors in people living in nursing homes could help healthcare professionals to individualize or develop specific plans for predicting future care demands and plan end-of-life care in this population. This study aims to identify mortality risk factors in elderly nursing home (NH) residents, based on variables adapted to this environment, routinely collected and easily accessible to their healthcare professionals. Methods: A prospective, longitudinal, observational study of NH residents aged 65 years and older was carried out collecting sociodemographic, functional and cognitive status, nutritional variables, comorbidities, and other health variables. These variables were analyzed as mortality risk factors by Cox proportional hazard models. Results: A total of 531 residents (75.3% female; average age 86.7 years (SD: 6.6)) were included: 25.6% had total dependence, 53.4% had moderate to severe cognitive impairment, 84.5% were malnourished or at risk of malnutrition, and 79.9% were polymedicated. Risk of mortality (hazard ratio, HR) increased in totally dependent residents (HR = 1.52; p = 0.02) and in those with moderate or severe cognitive impairment ((HR = 1.59; p = 0.031) and (HR = 1.93; p = 0.002), respectively). Male gender (HR = 1.88; p < 0.001), age ≥80 years (HR = 1.73; p = 0.034), hypertension (HR = 1.53; p = 0.012), atrial fibrillation/arrhythmia (HR = 1.43; p = 0.048), and previous record of pneumonia (HR = 1.65; p = 0.029) were also found to be mortality drivers. Conclusion: Age and male gender (due to the higher prevalence of associated comorbidity in these two variables), certain comorbidities (hypertension, atrial fibrillation/arrhythmia, and pneumonia), higher functional and cognitive impairment, and frequency of medical emergency service care increased the risk of mortality in our study. Given their importance and their easy identification by healthcare professionals in nursing homes, these clinical variables should be used for planning care in institutionalized older adults.

Frailty Index and functional level upon admission predict hospital outcomes: an interRAI-based cohort study of older patients in post-acute care hospitals

BACKGROUND

Geriatric assessment upon admission may reveal factors that contribute to adverse outcomes in hospitalized older patients. The purposes of this study were to derive a Frailty Index (FI-PAC) from the interRAI Post-Acute Care instrument (interRAI-PAC) and to analyse the predictive ability of the FI-PAC and interRAI scales for hospital outcomes.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study was conducted by combining patient data from interRAI-PAC with discharge records from two post-acute care hospitals. The FI-PAC was derived from 57 variables that fulfilled the Frailty Index criteria. Associations of the FI-PAC and interRAI-PAC scales (ADLH for activities of daily living, CPS for cognition, DRS for mood, and CHESS for stability of health status) with hospital outcomes (prolonged hospital stay ≥90 days, emergency department admission during the stay, and in-hospital mortality) were analysed using logistic regression and ROC curves.

RESULTS

The cohort included 2188 patients (mean age (SD) 84.7 (6.3) years) who were hospitalized in two post-acute care hospitals. Most patients (n = 1691, 77%) were discharged and sent home. Their median length of stay was 35 days (interquartile range 18-87 days), and 409 patients (24%) had a prolonged hospital stay. During their stay, 204 patients (9%) were admitted to the emergency department and 231 patients (11%) died. The FI-PAC was normally distributed (mean (SD) 0.34 (0.15)). Each increase of 0.1 point in the FI-PAC increased the likelihood of prolonged hospital stay (odds ratio [95% CI] 1.91 [1.73─2.09]), emergency admission (1.24 [1.11─1.37]), and in-hospital death (1.82 [1.63─2.03]). The best instruments for predicting prolonged hospital stay and in-hospital mortality were the FI-PAC and the ADLH scale (AUC 0.75 vs 0.72 and 0.73 vs 0.73, respectively). There were no differences in the predictive abilities of interRAI scales and the FI-PAC for emergency department admission.

CONCLUSIONS

The Frailty Index derived from interRAI-PAC predicts adverse hospital outcomes. Its predictive ability was similar to that of the ADLH scale, whereas other interRAI-PAC scales had less predictive value. In clinical practice, assessment of functional ability is a simple way to assess a patient's prognosis.

Treatment of Hypertension in Complex Older Adults: How Many Medications Are Needed?

Background: Many older adults with hypertension receive multiple antihypertensives. It is unclear whether treatment with several antihypertensive classes results in greater cardiovascular benefits than fewer antihypertensive classes. Objectives: We investigated (a) the longitudinal associations between treatment with ≥ 3 versus 1-2 classes and death and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and (b) whether these associations varied by the presence of mobility disability. Methods: We included 6,011 treated hypertensive adults ≥65 from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS), a nationally representative community sample. Times to MACE and death were compared between those receiving ≥3 versus 1-2 classes using multivariable proportional hazards regression. We used inverse probability of treatment weighting to account for indication and contraindication bias. Results: There were no significant differences in the risk of mortality (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.96, p = .769) or MACE (HR = 1.10, p = .574) between the exposure groups, and there were no significant exposure × mobility disability interactions. Discussion: We found no benefit of ≥3 versus 1-2 antihypertensive classes in reducing mortality and cardiovascular events in a representative cohort of older adults, raising concern about the added benefit of additional antihypertensives in the real world.

Predicting Intracerebral Hemorrhage Patients' Length-of-Stay Probability Distribution Based on Demographic, Clinical, Admission Diagnosis, and Surgery Information

The vast majority of patients with intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) suffer from long and uncertain length of stay (LOS). The aim of our study was to provide decision support for discharge and admission plans by predicting ICH patients' LOS probability distribution. The demographics, clinical predictors, admission diagnosis, and surgery information from 3,600 ICH patients were used in this study. We used univariable Cox analysis, multivariable Cox analysis, Cox-variable of importance (Cox-VIMP) analysis, and an intersection analysis to select predictors and used random survival forests (RSF)—a method in survival analysis—to predict LOS probability distribution. The Cox-VIMP method constructed by us effectively selected significant correlation predictors. The Cox-VIMP RSF model can improve prediction performance and is significantly different from the other models. The Cox-VIMP can contribute to the screening of predictors, and the RSF model can be established through those predictors to predict the probability distribution of LOS in each patient.

Effects of creative expression therapy for older adults with mild cognitive impairment at risk of Alzheimer's disease: a randomized controlled clinical trial

OBJECTIVE

Elderly people with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) are at high risk for dementia. This study compared the effects of standard cognitive training with a creative expression (CrExp) program.

METHODS

Adult patients with MCI aged 60 years and older (N=93) were randomly assigned to either CrExp therapy (n=48) or a control group who received standard cognitive training (n=45) for 16 weeks. The Montreal Cognitive Assessment, Chinese Version of the Auditory Verbal Learning Test, Chinese Version of the Category Verbal Fluency Test, Digit Span Test, Trail Making Test, Chinese Version of Activities of Daily Living scale, and Memory Satisfaction Questionnaire were used to measure cognitive functioning and daily living abilities. Assessments were administered at baseline, postintervention, and 6 months follow-up.

RESULTS

At postintervention, patients receiving CrExp therapy scored significantly higher than patients receiving standard cognitive training, in general cognitive functioning, memory, executive function, functional status, and everyday living ability. The improvements in cognitive functioning were maintained at the 6 month follow-up.

CONCLUSION

CrExp therapy has greater positive effects on cognitive functions and daily living ability than standard cognitive training. This unique therapy may serve as a cost-effective adjunct to standard interventions for older adults with mild cognitive impairment.

Hospital Mortality Among Elderly Patients Admitted With Neurological Disorders Was Not Predicted by any Particular Diagnosis in a Tertiary Medical Center

Background:

Neurological disorders (NDs) are associated with high hospital mortality. We aimed to identify predictors of hospital mortality among elderly inpatients with NDs.

Methods:

Patients aged ≥60 years admitted to the hospital between January 1, 2009 and December 31, 2010 with acute NDs, chronic NDs as underpinnings of acute clinical disorders, and neurological complications of other diseases were studied. We analyzed demographic data, NDs, and comorbidities as independent predictors of hospital mortality. Logistic regression was performed for multivariable analysis.

Results:

Overall, 1540 NDs and 2679 comorbidities were identified among 798 inpatients aged ≥ 60 years (mean 75.8±9.1). Of these, 54.5% were female. Diagnostic frequency of NDs ranged between 0.3% and 50.8%. Diagnostic frequency of comorbidities ranged from 5.6% to 84.5%. Comorbidities varied from 0 to 9 per patient (90% of patients had ≥2 comorbidities), mean 3.2±1.47(CI, 3.1-3.3). Patients with multimorbidities presented with a mean of 4.7±1.7 morbidities per patient. Each ND and comorbidity were associated with high hospital mortality, producing narrow ranges between the lowest and highest incidences of death (hospital mortality = 18%) (95% CI, 15%-21%). After multivariable analysis, advanced age (P<0.001) and low socioeconomic status (P=0.003) were recognized as predictors of mortality, totaling 9% of the variables associated with hospital mortality.

Conclusion:

Neither a particular ND nor an individual comorbidity predicted hospital mortality. Age and low socioeconomic class accounted for 9% of predictors. We suggest evaluating whether functional, cognitive, or comorbidity scores will improve the risk model of hospital mortality in elderly patients admitted with ND.

Baseline functional status as the strongest predictor of in-hospital mortality in elderly patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation: Results of the NONAVASC registry

OBJECTIVES

Atrial fibrillation (AF) has been associated with higher mortality. We aimed to identify the baseline predictors of in-hospital mortality among elderly patients with non-valvular AF (NVAF) hospitalised for any reason.

METHODS

Observational, prospective and multicentre study was carried out on patients with NVAF over the age of 75, who had been admitted for any acute medical condition to Internal Medicine departments in Spain.

RESULTS

We evaluated 804 patients with a mean age of 85±5.1years, of which 53.9% were females. During the hospitalization 10.1% (n=81) of the patients died. The patients who died were older, had a greater percentage of institutionalization, worse previous basic functional status (Barthel Index), worse cognitive performance at admission and greater proportion of frailty and sarcopenia. Logistic regression multivariate analysis identified that the strongest determinants of in-hospital mortality were the baseline functional status (Barthel Index) (OR for total dependency 4.73, 95% CI 2.32-9.63), and admissions for stroke (OR 3.55, 95% CI 1.41-8.90) and acute renal failure (OR 1.93, 95% CI 1.12-3.32).

CONCLUSION

The overall in-hospital mortality of elderly patients with NVFA is high. Among all factors evaluated in the global geriatric assessment the baseline functional status was the strongest predictor for in-hospital mortality on this population.