Social Determinants of Health and Delivery of Rehabilitation to Older Adults During ICU Hospitalization

Importance

Older adults with socioeconomic disadvantage develop a greater burden of disability after critical illness than those without socioeconomic disadvantage. The delivery of in-hospital rehabilitation that can mitigate functional decline may be influenced by social determinants of health (SDOH). Whether rehabilitation delivery differs by SDOH during critical illness hospitalization is not known.

Objective

To evaluate whether SDOH are associated with the delivery of skilled rehabilitation during critical illness hospitalization among older adults.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study used data from the National Health and Aging Trends Study linked with Medicare claims (2011-2018). Participants included older adults hospitalized with a stay in the intensive care unit (ICU). Data were analyzed from August 2022 to September 2023.

Exposures

Dual eligibility for Medicare and Medicaid, education, income, limited English proficiency (LEP), and rural residence.

Main Outcome and Measures

The primary outcome was delivery of physical therapy (PT) and/or occupational therapy (OT) during ICU hospitalization, characterized as any in-hospital PT or OT and rate of in-hospital PT or OT, calculated as total number of units divided by length of stay.

Results

In the sample of 1618 ICU hospitalizations (median [IQR] patient age, 81.0 [75.0-86.0] years; 842 [52.0%] female), 371 hospitalizations (22.9%) were among patients with dual Medicare and Medicaid eligibility, 523 hospitalizations (32.6%) were among patients with less than high school education, 320 hospitalizations (19.8%) were for patients with rural residence, and 56 hospitalizations (3.5%) were among patients with LEP. A total of 1076 hospitalized patients (68.5%) received any PT or OT, with a mean rate of 0.94 (95% CI, 0.86-1.02) units/d. After adjustment for age, sex, prehospitalization disability, mechanical ventilation, and organ dysfunction, factors associated with lower odds of receipt of PT or OT included dual Medicare and Medicaid eligibility (adjusted odds ratio, 0.70 [95% CI, 0.50-0.97]) and rural residence (adjusted odds ratio, 0.65 [95% CI, 0.48-0.87]). LEP was associated with a lower rate of PT or OT (adjusted rate ratio, 0.55 [95% CI, 0.32-0.94]).

Conclusions and Relevance

These findings highlight the need to consider SDOH in efforts to promote rehabilitation delivery during ICU hospitalization and to investigate factors underlying inequities in this practice.

Geriatric assessment-derived deficit accumulation and patient-reported treatment burden in older adults with bladder cancer

BACKGROUND

When a person's workload of healthcare exceeds their resources, they experience treatment burden. At the intersection of cancer and aging, little is known about treatment burden. We evaluated the association between a geriatric assessment-derived Deficit Accumulation Index (DAI) and patient-reported treatment burden in older adults with early-stage, non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC).

METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional survey of older adults with NMIBC (≥65 years). We calculated DAI using the Cancer and Aging Research Group's geriatric assessment and measured urinary symptoms using the Urogenital Distress Inventory-6 (UDI-6). The primary outcome was Treatment Burden Questionnaire (TBQ) score. A negative binomial regression with LASSO penalty was used to model TBQ. We further conducted qualitative thematic content analysis of responses to an open-ended survey question ("What has been your Greatest Challenge in managing medical care for your bladder cancer") and created a joint display with illustrative quotes by DAI category.

RESULTS

Among 119 patients, mean age was 78.9 years (SD 7) of whom 56.3% were robust, 30.3% pre-frail, and 13.4% frail. In the multivariable model, DAI and UDI-6 were significantly associated with TBQ. Individuals with DAI above the median (>0.18) had TBQ scores 1.94 times greater than those below (adjusted IRR 1.94, 95% CI 1.33-2.82). Individuals with UDI-6 greater than the median (25) had TBQ scores 1.7 times greater than those below (adjusted IRR 1.70, 95% CI 1.16-2.49). The top 5 themes in the Greatest Challenge question responses were cancer treatments (22.2%), cancer worry (19.2%), urination bother (18.2%), self-management (18.2%), and appointment time (11.1%).

CONCLUSIONS

DAI and worsening urinary symptoms were associated with higher treatment burden in older adults with NMIBC. These data highlight the need for a holistic approach that reconciles the burden from aging-related conditions with that resulting from cancer treatment.

Distressing symptoms after major surgery among community-living older persons

BACKGROUND

Relatively little is known about how distressing symptoms change among older persons in the setting of major surgery. Our objective was to evaluate changes in distressing symptoms after major surgery and determine whether these changes differ according to the timing of surgery (nonelective vs. elective), sex, multimorbidity, and socioeconomic disadvantage.

METHODS

From a prospective longitudinal study of 754 nondisabled community-living persons, 70 years of age or older, 368 admissions for major surgery were identified from 274 participants who were discharged from the hospital from March 1998 to December 2017. The occurrence of 15 distressing symptoms was ascertained in the month before and 6 months after major surgery. Multimorbidity was defined as more than two chronic conditions. Socioeconomic disadvantage was assessed at the individual level, based on Medicaid eligibility, and neighborhood level, based on an area deprivation index (ADI) score above the 80th state percentile.

RESULTS

In the month before major surgery, the occurrence and mean number of distressing symptoms were 19.6% and 0.75, respectively. In multivariable analyses, the rate ratios, denoting proportional increases in the 6 months after major surgery relative to presurgery values, were 2.56 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.91-3.44) and 2.90 (95% CI, 2.01-4.18) for the occurrence and number of distressing symptoms, respectively. The corresponding values were 3.54 (95% CI, 2.06-6.08) and 4.51 for nonelective surgery (95% CI, 2.32-8.76) and 2.12 (95% CI, 1.53-2.92) and 2.20 (95% CI, 1.48-3.29) for elective surgery; p-values for interaction were 0.030 and 0.009. None of the other subgroup differences were statistically significant, although men had a greater proportional increase in the occurrence and number of distressing symptoms than women.

CONCLUSIONS

Among community-living older persons, the burden of distressing symptoms increases substantially after major surgery, especially in those having nonelective procedures. Reducing symptom burden has the potential to improve quality of life and enhance functional outcomes after major surgery.

Performance of a modified fracture risk assessment tool for fragility fracture prediction among older veterans living with HIV

OBJECTIVE

Fragility fractures (fractures) are a critical outcome for persons aging with HIV (PAH). Research suggests that the fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX) only modestly estimates fracture risk among PAH. We provide an updated evaluation of how well a 'modified FRAX' identifies PAH at risk for fractures in a contemporary HIV cohort.

DESIGN

Cohort study.

METHODS

We used data from the Veterans Aging Cohort Study to evaluate veterans living with HIV, aged 50+ years, for the occurrence of fractures from 1 January 2010 through 31 December 2019. Data from 2009 were used to evaluate the eight FRAX predictors available to us: age, sex, BMI, history of previous fracture, glucocorticoid use, rheumatoid arthritis, alcohol use, and smoking status. These predictor values were then used to estimate participant risk for each of two types of fractures (major osteoporotic and hip) over the subsequent 10 years in strata defined by race/ethnicity using multivariable logistic regression.

RESULTS

Discrimination for major osteoporotic fracture was modest [Blacks: area under the curve (AUC) 0.62; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.62, 0.63; Whites: AUC 0.61; 95% CI 0.60, 0.61; Hispanic: AUC 0.63; 95% CI 0.62, 0.65]. For hip fractures, discrimination was modest to good (Blacks: AUC 0.70; 95% CI 0.69, 0.71; Whites: AUC 0.68; 95% CI 0.67, 0.69]. Calibration was good in all models across all racial/ethnic groups.

CONCLUSION

Our 'modified FRAX' exhibited modest discrimination for predicting major osteoporotic fracture and slightly better discrimination for hip fracture. Future studies should explore whether augmentation of this subset of FRAX predictors results in enhanced prediction of fractures among PAH.

Factors Associated With Days Away From Home in the Year After Major Surgery Among Community-living Older Persons

OBJECTIVE

To identify the factors associated with days away from home in the year after hospital discharge for major surgery.

BACKGROUND

Relatively little is known about which older persons are susceptible to spending a disproportionate amount of time in hospitals and other health care facilities after major surgery.

METHODS

From a cohort of 754 community-living persons, aged 70+ years, 394 admissions for major surgery were identified from 289 participants who were discharged from the hospital. Candidate risk factors were assessed every 18 months. Days away from home were calculated as the number of days spent in a health care facility.

RESULTS

In the year after major surgery, the mean (SD) and median (interquartile range) number of days away from home were 52.0 (92.2) and 15 (0-51). In multivariable analysis, 5 factors were independently associated with the number of days away from home: age 85 years and older, low score on the Short Physical Performance Battery, low peak expiratory flow, low functional self-efficacy, and musculoskeletal surgery. Based on the presence versus absence of these factors, the absolute mean differences in the number of days away from home ranged from 31.2 for age 85 years and older to 53.5 for low functional self-efficacy.

CONCLUSIONS

The 5 independent risk factors can be used to identify older persons who are particularly susceptible to spending a disproportionate amount of time away from home after major surgery, and a subset of these factors can also serve as targets for interventions to improve quality of life by reducing time spent in hospitals and other health care facilities.

Acute hospital use in older adults following the 2015 Dutch reform of long-term care: an interrupted time series analysis

BACKGROUND

In 2015, the Dutch government implemented a long-term care (LTC) reform primarily designed to promote older adults to age-in-place. Increased proportions of older adults living in the community might have resulted in more and longer acute hospitalisations. The aims of this study were to evaluate whether the Dutch 2015 LTC reform was associated with immediate and longitudinal increases in the monthly rate of acute clinical hospitalisation and monthly average hospital length of stay (LOS) in adults aged 65 years or older.

METHODS

In this interrupted time series analysis of national hospital data (2009-18), we evaluated the association of the Dutch 2015 LTC reform with the monthly rate of acute clinical hospitalisation and monthly average LOS for older adults (aged ≥65 years). Patient-level episodic hospital data were provided by Dutch Hospital Data. Records were included that were defined as an acute clinical hospital admission for which a medical specialist decided treatment was necessary within 24 h. The analysis controlled for population growth (Dutch population data was provided by Statistics Netherlands) and seasonality, and calculated adjusted incident rate ratios (IRR).

FINDINGS

Before the 2015 LTC reform, the rate of acute monthly hospitalisation was increasing (IRR 1·002 [95% CI 1·001-1·002]). A positive average reform effect was observed (1·116 [1·070-1·165]), accompanied by a negative change in trend (0·997 [0·996-0·998]) that resulted in a decreasing trend over the post-reform period (0·998 [0·998-0·999]). The pre-reform trend of LOS was decreasing (0·998 [0·997-0·998]), and the 2015 reform exhibited a positive change in trend (1·002 [1·002-1·003]) that resulted in a stabilisation of LOS in the post-reform period (0·999 [0·999-1·000]).

INTERPRETATION

Our findings suggest that the increase in the rate of acute hospitalisation after the reform implementation was temporary, whereas the increase in LOS post-reform appeared to last longer than expected. These results have the potential to inform policy makers about effects of ageing-in-place LTC strategies on health and curative care.

FUNDING

The Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development, the Yale Claude Pepper Center, and the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences, National Institutes of Health.

TRANSLATION

For the Dutch translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Assessing the contributions of modifiable risk factors to serious falls and fragility fractures among older persons living with HIV

BACKGROUND

Although 50 years represents middle age among uninfected individuals, studies have shown that persons living with HIV (PWH) begin to demonstrate elevated risk for serious falls and fragility fractures in the sixth decade; the proportions of these outcomes attributable to modifiable factors are unknown.

METHODS

We analyzed 21,041 older PWH on antiretroviral therapy (ART) from the Veterans Aging Cohort Study from 01/01/2010 through 09/30/2015. Serious falls were identified by Ecodes and a machine-learning algorithm applied to radiology reports. Fragility fractures (hip, vertebral, and upper arm) were identified using ICD9 codes. Predictors for both models included a serious fall within the past 12 months, body mass index, physiologic frailty (VACS Index 2.0), illicit substance and alcohol use disorders, and measures of multimorbidity and polypharmacy. We separately fit multivariable logistic models to each outcome using generalized estimating equations. From these models, the longitudinal extensions of average attributable fraction (LE-AAF) for modifiable risk factors were estimated.

RESULTS

Key risk factors for both outcomes included physiologic frailty (VACS Index 2.0) (serious falls [15%; 95% CI 14%-15%]; fractures [13%; 95% CI 12%-14%]), a serious fall in the past year (serious falls [7%; 95% CI 7%-7%]; fractures [5%; 95% CI 4%-5%]), polypharmacy (serious falls [5%; 95% CI 4%-5%]; fractures [5%; 95% CI 4%-5%]), an opioid prescription in the past month (serious falls [7%; 95% CI 6%-7%]; fractures [9%; 95% CI 8%-9%]), and diagnosis of alcohol use disorder (serious falls [4%; 95% CI 4%-5%]; fractures [8%; 95% CI 7%-8%]).

CONCLUSIONS

This study confirms the contributions of risk factors important in the general population to both serious falls and fragility fractures among older PWH. Successful prevention programs for these outcomes should build on existing prevention efforts while including risk factors specific to PWH.

Association Between Daily Average of Mobility Achieved During Physical Therapy Sessions and Hospital-Acquired or Ventilator-Associated Pneumonia among Critically Ill Patients

PURPOSE

Hospital-acquired and ventilator-associated pneumonias (HAP and VAP) are associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Immobility is a risk factor for developing ICU-acquired weakness (ICUAW). Early mobilization is associated with improved physical function, but its association with hospital-acquired (HAP) and ventilator-associated pneumonias (VAP) is unknown. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the association between daily average of highest level of mobility achieved during physical therapy (PT) and incidence of HAP or VAP among critically ill patients.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In a retrospective cohort study of progressive mobility program participants in the medical ICU, we used a validated method to abstract new diagnoses of HAP and VAP. We captured scores on a mobility scale achieved during each inpatient physical therapy session and used a Bayesian, discrete time-to-event model to evaluate the association between daily average of highest level of mobility achieved and occurrence of HAP or VAP.

RESULTS

The primary outcome of HAP/VAP occurred in 55 (26.8%) of the 205 participants. Each increase in the daily average of highest level of mobility achieved during PT (0-6 mobility scale) exhibited a protective association with occurrence of HAP or VAP (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0.61; 95% CI 0.44, 0.85). Age, baseline ambulatory status, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II, and previous day's mechanical ventilation (MV) status were not significantly associated with the occurrence of HAP/VAP.

CONCLUSIONS

Among critically ill patients in a progressive mobility program, a higher daily average of highest level of mobility achieved during PT was associated with a decreased risk of HAP or VAP.

Young Women With Acute Myocardial Infarction: Risk Prediction Model for 1-Year Hospital Readmission

Background

Although young women ( aged ≤ 55 years) are at higher risk than similarly aged men for hospital readmission within 1 year after an acute myocardial infarction (AMI), no risk prediction models have been developed for them. The present study developed and internally validated a risk prediction model of 1-year post-AMI hospital readmission among young women that considered demographic, clinical, and gender-related variables.

Methods

We used data from the US Variation in Recovery: Role of Gender on Outcomes of Young AMI Patients (VIRGO) study (n = 2007 women), a prospective observational study of young patients hospitalized with AMI. Bayesian model averaging was used for model selection and bootstrapping for internal validation. Model calibration and discrimination were respectively assessed with calibration plots and area under the curve.

Results

Within 1-year post-AMI, 684 women (34.1%) were readmitted to the hospital at least once. The final model predictors included: any in-hospital complication, baseline perceived physical health, obstructive coronary artery disease, diabetes, history of congestive heart failure, low income ( < $30,000 US), depressive symptoms, length of hospital stay, and race (White vs Black). Of the 9 retained predictors, 3 were gender-related. The model was well calibrated and exhibited modest discrimination (area under the curve = 0.66).

Conclusions

Our female-specific risk model was developed and internally validated in a cohort of young female patients hospitalized with AMI and can be used to predict risk of readmission. Whereas clinical factors were the strongest predictors, the model included several gender-related variables (ie, perceived physical health, depression, income level). However, discrimination was modest, indicating that other unmeasured factors contribute to variability in hospital readmission risk among younger women.

Time-Varying Effect Models for Examining Age-Dynamic Associations in Gerontological Research

OBJECTIVES

Dynamic processes unfolding over later adulthood are of prime interest to gerontological researchers. Time-varying effect modeling (TVEM) accommodates dynamic change trajectories, but its use in gerontological research is limited. We introduce and demonstrate TVEM with an empirical example based on the National Health and Aging Trends Study (NHATS).

METHODS

We examined (a) age-varying prevalence of past month elevated symptoms of depression and anxiety and (b) age-varying associations between older adults' elevated symptoms of depression and anxiety and needing help with basic activities of daily living and educational attainment.

RESULTS

The proportion of participants reporting elevated symptoms of depression and anxiety in the past month increased gradually from 23-29% across the ages 70-92. Individuals needing help with ADLs had higher odds of reporting elevated symptoms of depression and anxiety, however the association was strongest for those in their 60s versus 80s. Across all ages, adults with lower education levels had higher odds of reporting elevated symptoms of depression and anxiety, an association that also varied by age.

CONCLUSION

We demonstrated TVEM's value for studying dynamic associations that vary across chronological age. With the recent availability of free, user-friendly software for implementing TVEM, gerontological researchers have a new tool for exploring complex change processes that characterize older adults' development.

A risk model for decline in health status after acute myocardial infarction among older adults

BACKGROUND

Health status is increasingly recognized as an important patient-centered outcome after acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Yet drivers of decline in health status after AMI remain largely unknown in older adults. We sought to develop and validate a predictive risk model for health status decline among older adult survivors of AMI.

METHODS

Using data from a prospective cohort study conducted from 2013 to 2017 of 3041 patients age ≥75 years hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction at 94 U.S. hospitals, we examined a broad array of demographic, clinical, functional, and psychosocial variables for their association with health status decline, defined as a decrease of ≥5 points in the Short Form-12 (SF-12) physical component score from hospitalization to 6 months post-discharge. Model selection was performed in logistic regression models of 20 imputed datasets to yield a parsimonious risk prediction model. Model discrimination and calibration were evaluated using c-statistics and calibration plots, respectively.

RESULTS

Of the 2571 participants included in the main analyses, 30% of patients experienced health status decline from hospitalization to 6 months post-discharge. The risk model contained 14 factors, 10 associated with higher risk of health status decline (age, pre-existing AMI, pre-existing cancer, pre-existing COPD, pre-existing diabetes, history of falls, presenting Killip class, acute kidney injury, baseline health status, and mobility impairment) and four associated with lower risk of health status decline (male sex, higher hemoglobin, receipt of revascularization, and arrhythmia during hospitalization). The model displayed good discrimination (c-statistic = 0.74 in validation cohort) and calibration (p > 0.05) in both development and validation cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

We used split sampling to develop and validate a risk model for health status decline in older adults after hospitalization for AMI and identified several risk factors that may be modifiable to mitigate the threat of this important patient-centered outcome. External validation of this risk model is warranted.

A multivariate joint model to adjust for random measurement error while handling skewness and correlation in dietary data in an epidemiologic study of mortality

PURPOSE

A substantial proportion of global deaths is attributed to unhealthy diet, which can be assessed at baseline or longitudinally. We demonstrated how to simultaneously correct for random measurement error, correlations, and skewness in the estimation of associations between dietary intake and all-cause mortality.

METHODS

We applied a multivariate joint model (MJM) that simultaneously corrected for random measurement error, skewness, and correlation among longitudinally measured intake levels of cholesterol, total fat, dietary fiber, and energy with all-cause mortality using US National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey linked to the National Death Index mortality data. We compared MJM with the mean method that assessed intake levels as the mean of a person's intake.

RESULTS

The estimates from MJM were larger than those from the mean method. For instance, the logarithm of hazard ratio (log HR) for dietary fiber intake increased by 14 times (from -0.04 to -0.60) with the MJM method. This translated into relative hazard of death of 0.55 (95% Credible Interval, CI: 0.45, 0.65) with the MJM and 0.96 (95% CI: 0.95, 0.97) with the mean method.

CONCLUSIONS

MJM adjusts for random measurement error and flexibly addresses correlations and skewness among longitudinal measures of dietary intake when estimating their associations with death.

Association of Sociodemographic Characteristics With 1-Year Hospital Readmission Among Adults Aged 18 to 55 Years With Acute Myocardial Infarction

Importance

Among younger adults, the association between Black race and postdischarge readmission after hospitalization for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is insufficiently described.

Objectives

To examine whether racial differences exist in all-cause 1-year hospital readmission among younger adults hospitalized for AMI and whether that difference retains significance after adjustment for cardiac factors and social determinants of health (SDOHs).

Design, Setting, and Participants

The VIRGO (Variation in Recovery: Role of Gender on Outcomes of Young AMI Patients) study was an observational cohort study of younger adults (aged 18-55 years) hospitalized for AMI with a 2:1 female-to-male ratio across 103 US hospitals from January 1, 2008, to December 31, 2012. Data analysis was performed from August 1 to December 31, 2021.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcome was all-cause readmission, defined as any hospital or observation stay greater than 24 hours within 1 year of discharge, identified through medical record abstraction and clinician adjudication. Logistic regression with sequential adjustment evaluated racial differences and potential moderation by sex and SDOHs. The Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition quantified how much of any racial difference was explained and not explained by covariates.

Results

This study included 2822 participants (median [IQR] age, 48 [44-52] years; 1910 [67.7%] female; 2289 [81.1%] White and 533 [18.9%] Black; 868 [30.8%] readmitted). Black individuals had a higher rate of readmission than White individuals (210 [39.4%] vs 658 [28.8%], P < .001), particularly Black women (179 of 425 [42.1%]). After adjustment for sociodemographic characteristics, cardiac factors, and SDOHs, the odds of readmission were 34% higher among Black individuals (odds ratio [OR], 1.34; 95% CI, 1.06-1.68). The association between Black race and 1-year readmission was positively moderated by unemployment (OR, 1.68; 95% CI, 1.09- 2.59; P for interaction = .02) and fewer number of working hours per week (OR, 1.01; 95% CI, 1.00-1.02; P for interaction = .01) but not by sex. Decomposition indicates that 79% of the racial difference in risk of readmission went unexplained by the included covariates.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this multicenter study of younger adults hospitalized for AMI, Black individuals were more often readmitted in the year following discharge than White individuals. Although interventions to address SDOHs and employment may help decrease racial differences in 1-year readmission, more study is needed on the 79% of the racial difference not explained by the included covariates.

Development and validation of a prediction model for persistent functional impairment among older ICU survivors

BACKGROUND

Critical illness often leads to persistent functional impairment among older Intensive Care Unit (ICU) survivors. Identification of high-risk survivors prior to discharge from their ICU hospitalization can facilitate targeting for restorative interventions after discharge, potentially improving the likelihood of functional recovery. Our objective was to develop and validate a prediction model for persistent functional impairment among older adults in the year after an ICU hospitalization.

METHODS

The analytic sample included community-living participants enrolled in the National Health and Aging Trends Study 2011 cohort who survived an ICU hospitalization through December 2017 and had a follow-up interview within 1 year. Persistent functional impairment was defined as failure to recover to the pre-ICU level of function within 12 months of discharge from an ICU hospitalization. We used Bayesian model averaging to identify the final predictors from a comprehensive set of 17 factors. Discrimination and calibration were assessed using area-under-the-curve (AUC) and calibration plots.

RESULTS

The development cohort included 456 ICU admissions (2,654,685 survey-weighted admissions) and the validation cohort included 227 ICU admissions (1,350,082 survey-weighted admissions). In the development cohort, the median age was 81.0 years (interquartile range [IQR] 76.0, 86.0) and 231 (50.7%) participants were women; demographic characteristics were comparable in the validation cohort. The rates of persistent functional impairment were 49.3% (development) and 50.2% (validation). The final model included age, pre-ICU disability, probable dementia, frailty, prior hospitalizations, vision impairment, depressive symptoms, and hospital length of stay. The model demonstrated good discrimination (AUC 71%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.66-0.76) and good calibration. When applied to the validation cohort, the model demonstrated comparable discrimination (AUC 72%, 95% CI 0.66-0.78) and good calibration.

CONCLUSIONS

Application of the model prior to discharge from an ICU hospitalization may identify older adults at the highest risk of persistent functional impairment in the subsequent year, thereby facilitating targeted interventions and follow-up.

Population-Based Estimates of 1-Year Mortality After Major Surgery Among Community-Living Older US Adults

Importance

Despite their importance to guiding public health decision-making and policies and to establishing programs aimed at improving surgical care, contemporary nationally representative mortality data for geriatric surgery are lacking.

Objective

To calculate population-based estimates of mortality after major surgery in community-living older US adults and to determine how these estimates differ according to key demographic, surgical, and geriatric characteristics.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Prospective longitudinal cohort study with 1 year of follow-up in the continental US from 2011 to 2018. Participants included 5590 community-living fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries, aged 65 years or older, from the National Health and Aging Trends Study (NHATS). Data analysis was conducted from February 22, 2021, to March 16, 2022.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Major surgeries and mortality over 1 year were identified through linkages with data from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services. Data on frailty and dementia were obtained from the annual NHATS assessments.

Results

From 2011 to 2017, of the 1193 major surgeries (from 992 community-living participants), the mean (SD) age was 79.2 (7.1) years; 665 were women (55.7%), and 30 were Hispanic (2.5%), 198 non-Hispanic Black (16.6%), and 915 non-Hispanic White (76.7%). Over the 1-year follow-up period, there were 206 deaths representing 872 096 survey-weighted deaths and 13.4% (95% CI, 10.9%-15.9%) mortality. Mortality rates were 7.4% (95% CI, 4.9%-9.9%) for elective surgeries and 22.3% (95% CI, 17.4%-27.1%) for nonelective surgeries. For geriatric subgroups, 1-year mortality was 6.0% (95% CI, 2.6%-9.4%) for persons who were nonfrail, 27.8% (95% CI, 21.2%-34.3%) for those who were frail, 11.6% (95% CI, 8.8%-14.4%) for persons without dementia, and 32.7% (95% CI, 24.3%-41.0%) for those with probable dementia. The age- and sex-adjusted hazard ratios for 1-year mortality were 4.41 (95% CI, 2.53-7.69) for frailty with a reduction in restricted mean survival time of 48.8 days and 2.18 (95% CI, 1.40-3.40) for probable dementia with a reduction in restricted mean survival time of 44.9 days.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this study, the population-based estimate of 1-year mortality after major surgery among community-living older adults in the US was 13.4% but was 3-fold higher for nonelective than elective procedures. Mortality was considerably elevated among older persons who were frail or who had probable dementia, highlighting the potential prognostic value of geriatric conditions after major surgery.

Incidence and Trends in the Use of Palliative Care among Patients with Reduced, Middle-Range, and Preserved Ejection Fraction Heart Failure

Background: Clinical practice guidelines recommend integrating palliative care (PC) into the care of patients with heart failure (HF) to address their many palliative needs. However, the incidence rates of PC use among HF subtypes are unknown. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of patients with the following HF subtypes in the Department of Veterans Affairs: reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF), mid-range ejection fraction (HFmEF), and preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF). Patients were included at the time of HF diagnosis from 2011 to 2015 and followed until a minimum of five years or death. Incidence rates of receipt of PC (primary outcome) were calculated using generalized estimating equations. We evaluated the time to incident PC by HF subtype with Kaplan-Meier analyses and with adjusted restricted mean survival time. Results: Of the 113,555 patients, 69% were ≥65 years, 98% were male, 73% White, and 18% Black; 58% had HFrEF, 7% HFmEF, and 34% HFpEF. Twenty percent received PC during follow-up, and 66% died. Adjusted PC incidence rates were higher among patients with HFrEF (47 per 1000 person-years, confidence interval [95% CI] 43-52) than for HFmEF and HFpEF (42 per 1000 person-years, CI 38-47 for both). Restricting follow-up to five years, patients with HFrEF received PC six weeks earlier than patients with HFpEF. There was no significant difference in time to PC between patients with HFmEF versus HFpEF. Conclusion: About 1 in 20 patients with HFrEF and 1 in 25 patients with HFmEF and HFpEF receive PC annually. Patients with HFrEF receive PC sooner than patients with HFmEF and HFpEF.

Predictive Risk Model for Serious Falls Among Older Persons Living With HIV

BACKGROUND

Older (older than 50 years) persons living with HIV (PWH) are at elevated risk for falls. We explored how well our algorithm for predicting falls in a general population of middle-aged Veterans (age 45-65 years) worked among older PWH who use antiretroviral therapy (ART) and whether model fit improved with inclusion of specific ART classes.

METHODS

This analysis included 304,951 six-month person-intervals over a 15-year period (2001-2015) contributed by 26,373 older PWH from the Veterans Aging Cohort Study who were taking ART. Serious falls (those falls warranting a visit to a health care provider) were identified by external cause of injury codes and a machine-learning algorithm applied to radiology reports. Potential predictors included a fall within the past 12 months, demographics, body mass index, Veterans Aging Cohort Study Index 2.0 score, substance use, and measures of multimorbidity and polypharmacy. We assessed discrimination and calibration from application of the original coefficients (model derived from middle-aged Veterans) to older PWH and then reassessed by refitting the model using multivariable logistic regression with generalized estimating equations. We also explored whether model performance improved with indicators of ART classes.

RESULTS

With application of the original coefficients, discrimination was good (C-statistic 0.725; 95% CI: 0.719 to 0.730) but calibration was poor. After refitting the model, both discrimination (C-statistic 0.732; 95% CI: 0.727 to 0.734) and calibration were good. Including ART classes did not improve model performance.

CONCLUSIONS

After refitting their coefficients, the same variables predicted risk of serious falls among older PWH nearly and they had among middle-aged Veterans.

Reaction time asymmetries provide insight into mechanisms underlying dominant and non-dominant hand selection

Handedness is often thought of as a hand "preference" for specific tasks or components of bimanual tasks. Nevertheless, hand selection decisions depend on many factors beyond hand dominance. While these decisions are likely influenced by which hand might show performance advantages for the particular task and conditions, there also appears to be a bias toward the dominant hand, regardless of performance advantage. This study examined the impact of hand selection decisions and workspace location on reaction time and movement quality. Twenty-six neurologically intact participants performed targeted reaching across the horizontal workspace in a 2D virtual reality environment, and we compared reaction time across two groups: those selecting which hand to use on a trial-by-trial basis (termed the choice group) and those performing the task with a preassigned hand (the no-choice group). Along with reaction time, we also compared reach performance for each group across two ipsilateral workspaces: medial and lateral. We observed a significant difference in reaction time between the hands in the choice group, regardless of workspace. In contrast, both hands showed shorter but similar reaction times and differences between the lateral and medial workspaces in the no-choice group. We conclude that the shorter reaction times of the dominant hand under choice conditions may be due to dominant hand bias in the selection process that is not dependent upon interlimb performance differences.

Association Between Socioeconomic Disadvantage and Decline in Function, Cognition, and Mental Health After Critical Illness Among Older Adults : A Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Older adults admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU) are at risk for developing impairments in function, cognition, and mental health. It is not known whether socioeconomically disadvantaged older persons are at greater risk for these impairments than their less vulnerable counterparts.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the association between socioeconomic disadvantage and decline in function, cognition, and mental health among older survivors of an ICU hospitalization.

DESIGN

Retrospective analysis of a longitudinal cohort study.

SETTING

Community-dwelling older adults in the National Health and Aging Trends Study (NHATS).

PARTICIPANTS

Participants with ICU hospitalizations between 2011 and 2017.

MEASUREMENTS

Socioeconomic disadvantage was assessed as dual-eligible Medicare-Medicaid status. The outcome of function was defined as the count of disabilities in 7 activities of daily living and mobility tasks, the cognitive outcome as the transition from no or possible to probable dementia, and the mental health outcome as the Patient Health Questionnaire-4 score in the NHATS interview after ICU hospitalization. The analytic sample included 641 ICU hospitalizations for function, 458 for cognition, and 519 for mental health.

RESULTS

After accounting for sociodemographic and clinical characteristics, dual eligibility was associated with a 28% increase in disability after ICU hospitalization (incidence rate ratio, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.00 to 1.64); and nearly 10-fold greater odds of transitioning to probable dementia (odds ratio, 9.79; 95% CI, 3.46 to 27.65). Dual eligibility was not associated with symptoms of depression and anxiety after ICU hospitalization (incidence rate ratio, 1.33; 95% CI, 0.99 to 1.79).

LIMITATION

Administrative data, variability in timing of baseline and outcome assessments, proxy selection.

CONCLUSION

Dual-eligible older persons are at greater risk for decline in function and cognition after an ICU hospitalization than their more advantaged counterparts. This finding highlights the need to prioritize low-income seniors in rehabilitation and recovery efforts after critical illness and warrants investigation into factors leading to this disparity.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

National Institute on Aging.

Geriatric vulnerability and the burden of disability after major surgery

BACKGROUND

Strong epidemiologic evidence linking indicators of geriatric vulnerability to long-term functional outcomes after major surgery is lacking. The objective of this study was to evaluate the association between geriatric vulnerability and the burden of disability after hospital discharge for major surgery.

METHODS

From a prospective longitudinal study of 754 nondisabled community-living persons, aged 70 years or older, 327 admissions for major surgery were identified from 247 participants who were discharged from the hospital from March 1997 to December 2017. The indicators of geriatric vulnerability were ascertained immediately prior to the major surgery or during the prior comprehensive assessment, which was completed every 18 months. Disability in 13 essential, instrumental and mobility activities was assessed each month.

RESULTS

The burden of disability over the 6 months after major surgery was considerably greater for non-elective than elective surgery. In multivariable analysis, 10 factors were independently associated with disability burden: age 85 years or older, female sex, Black race or Hispanic ethnicity, neighborhood disadvantage, multimorbidity, frailty, one or more disabilities, low functional self-efficacy, smoking, and obesity. The burden of disability increased with each additional vulnerability factor, with mean values (credible intervals) increasing from 1.6 (1.4-1.9) disabilities for 0-1 vulnerability factors to 6.6 (6.0-7.2) disabilities for 7 or more vulnerability factors. The corresponding values were 1.2 (0.9-1.5) and 5.9 (5.0-6.7) disabilities for elective surgery and 2.6 (2.1-3.1) and 8.2 (7.3-9.2) disabilities for non-elective surgery.

CONCLUSIONS

The burden of disability after hospital discharge for major surgery increases progressively as the number of geriatric vulnerability factors increases. These factors can be used to identify older persons who are particularly susceptible to poor functional outcomes after major surgery, and a subset may be amenable to intervention, including frailty, low functional self-efficacy, smoking, and obesity.

Association of Social Isolation With Disability Burden and 1-Year Mortality Among Older Adults With Critical Illness

Importance

Disability and mortality are common among older adults with critical illness. Older adults who are socially isolated may be more vulnerable to adverse outcomes for various reasons, including fewer supports to access services needed for optimal recovery; however, whether social isolation is associated with post-intensive care unit (ICU) disability and mortality is not known.

Objectives

To evaluate whether social isolation is associated with disability and with 1-year mortality after critical illness.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This observational cohort study included community-dwelling older adults who participated in the National Health and Aging Trends Study (NHATS) from May 2011 through November 2018. Hospitalization data were collected through 2017 and interview data through 2018. Data analysis was conducted from February 2020 through February 2021. The mortality sample included 997 ICU admissions of 1 day or longer, which represented 5 705 675 survey-weighted ICU hospitalizations. Of these, 648 ICU stays, representing 3 821 611 ICU hospitalizations, were eligible for the primary outcome of post-ICU disability.

Exposures

Social isolation from the NHATS survey response in the year most closely preceding ICU admission, which was assessed using a validated measure of social connectedness with partners, families, and friends as well as participation in valued life activities (range 0-6; higher scores indicate more isolation).

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcome was the count of disability assessed during the first interview following hospital discharge. The secondary outcome was time to death within 1 year of hospital admission.

Results

A total of 997 participants were in the mortality cohort (511 women [51%]; 45 Hispanic [5%], 682 non-Hispanic White [69%], and 228 non-Hispanic Black individuals [23%]) and 648 in the disability cohort (331 women [51%]; 29 Hispanic [5%], 457 non-Hispanic White [71%], and 134 non-Hispanic Black individuals [21%]). The median (interquartile range [IQR]) age was 81 (75.5-86.0) years (range, 66-102 years), the median (IQR) preadmission disability count was 0 (0-1), and the median (IQR) social isolation score was 3 (2-4). After adjustment for demographic characteristics and illness severity, each 1-point increase in the social isolation score (from 0-6) was associated with a 7% greater disability count (adjusted rate ratio, 1.07; 95% CI, 1.01-1.15) and a 14% increase in 1-year mortality risk (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.03-1.25).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cohort study, social isolation before an ICU hospitalization was associated with greater disability burden and higher mortality in the year following critical illness. The study findings suggest a need to develop social isolation screening and intervention frameworks for older adults with critical illness.

Brief Report: Are Serious Falls Associated With Subsequent Fragility Fractures Among Veterans Living With HIV?

BACKGROUND

The extensive research on falls and fragility fractures among persons living with HIV (PWH) has not explored the association between serious falls and subsequent fragility fracture. We explored this association.

SETTING

Veterans Aging Cohort Study.

METHODS

This analysis included 304,951 6-month person- intervals over a 15-year period (2001-2015) contributed by 26,373 PWH who were 50+ years of age (mean age 55 years) and taking antiretroviral therapy (ART). Serious falls (those falls significant enough to result in a visit to a health care provider) were identified by the external cause of injury codes and a machine learning algorithm applied to radiology reports. Fragility fractures were identified using ICD9 codes and included hip fracture, vertebral fractures, and upper arm fracture and were modeled with multivariable logistic regression with generalized estimating equations.

RESULTS

After adjustment, serious falls in the previous year were associated with increased risk of fragility fracture [odds ratio (OR) 2.10; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.83 to 2.41]. The use of integrase inhibitors was the only ART risk factor (OR 1.17; 95% CI: 1.03 to 1.33). Other risk factors included the diagnosis of alcohol use disorder (OR 1.49; 95% CI: 1.31 to 1.70) and having a prescription for an opioid in the previous 6 months (OR 1.40; 95% CI: 1.27 to 1.53).

CONCLUSIONS

Serious falls within the past year are strongly associated with fragility fractures among PWH on ART-largely a middle-aged population-much as they are among older adults in the general population.

Association Between Neighborhood Disadvantage and Functional Well-being in Community-Living Older Persons

IMPORTANCE

Neighborhood disadvantage is a novel social determinant of health that could adversely affect the functional well-being of older persons. Deficiencies in resource-poor environments can potentially be addressed through social and public health interventions.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate whether estimates of active and disabled life expectancy differ on the basis of neighborhood disadvantage after accounting for individual-level socioeconomic characteristics and other prognostic factors.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This prospective longitudinal cohort study included 754 nondisabled community-living persons, aged 70 years or older, who were members of the Precipitating Events Project in south central Connecticut from March 1998 to June 2020.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Disability in 4 essential activities of daily living (bathing, dressing, walking, and transferring) was assessed each month. Scores on the Area Deprivation Index, a census-based socioeconomic measure with 17 education, employment, housing quality, and poverty indicators, were obtained through linkages with the 2000 Neighborhood Atlas. Area Deprivation Index scores were dichotomized at the 80th state percentile to distinguish neighborhoods that were disadvantaged (81-100) from those that were not (1-80).

RESULTS

Among the 754 participants, the mean (SD) age was 78.4 (5.3) years, and 487 (64.6%) were female. Within 5-year age increments from 70 to 90, active life expectancy was consistently lower in participants from neighborhoods that were disadvantaged vs not disadvantaged, and these differences persisted and remained statistically significant after adjustment for individual-level race and ethnicity, education, income, and other prognostic factors. At age 70 years, adjusted estimates (95% CI) for active life expectancy (in years) were 12.3 (11.5-13.1) in the disadvantaged group and 14.2 (13.5-14.7) in the nondisadvantaged group. At each age, participants from disadvantaged neighborhoods spent a greater percentage of their projected remaining life disabled, relative to those from nondisadvantaged neighborhoods, with adjusted values (SE) ranging from 17.7 (0.8) vs 15.3 (0.5) at age 70 years to 55.0 (1.7) vs 48.1 (1.3) at age 90 years.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this prospective longitudinal cohort study, living in a disadvantaged neighborhood was associated with lower active life expectancy and a greater percentage of projected remaining life with disability. By addressing deficiencies in resource-poor environments, new or expanded social and public health initiatives have the potential to improve the functional well-being of community-living older persons and, in turn, reduce health disparities in the US.

Development and Validation of a Risk Prediction Model for 1-Year Readmission Among Young Adults Hospitalized for Acute Myocardial Infarction

Background

Readmission over the first year following hospitalization for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is common among younger adults (≤55 years). Our aim was to develop/validate a risk prediction model that considered a broad range of factors for readmission within 1 year.

Methods and Results

We used data from the VIRGO (Variation in Recovery: Role of Gender on Outcomes of Young AMI Patients) study, which enrolled young adults aged 18 to 55 years hospitalized with AMI across 103 US hospitals (N=2979). The primary outcome was ≥1 all‐cause readmissions within 1 year of hospital discharge. Bayesian model averaging was used to select the risk model. The mean age of participants was 47.1 years, 67.4% were women, and 23.2% were Black. Within 1 year of discharge for AMI, 905 (30.4%) of participants were readmitted and were more likely to be female, Black, and nonmarried. The final risk model consisted of 10 predictors: depressive symptoms (odds ratio [OR], 1.03; 95% CI, 1.01–1.05), better physical health (OR, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.97–0.99), in‐hospital complication of heart failure (OR, 1.44; 95% CI, 0.99–2.08), chronic obstructive pulmomary disease (OR, 1.29; 95% CI, 0.96–1.74), diabetes mellitus (OR, 1.23; 95% CI, 1.00–1.52), female sex (OR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.05–1.65), low income (OR, 1.13; 95% CI, 0.89–1.42), prior AMI (OR, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.15–1.87), in‐hospital length of stay (OR, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.04–1.23), and being employed (OR, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.69–1.12). The model had excellent calibration and modest discrimination (C statistic=0.67 in development/validation cohorts).

Conclusions

Women and those with a prior AMI, increased depressive symptoms, longer inpatient length of stay and diabetes may be more likely to be readmitted. Notably, several predictors of readmission were psychosocial characteristics rather than markers of AMI severity. This finding may inform the development of interventions to reduce readmissions in young patients with AMI.

Impact of Race on the In-Hospital Quality of Care Among Young Adults With Acute Myocardial Infarction

Background The extent to which race influences in-hospital quality of care for young adults (≤55 years) with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is largely unknown. We examined racial disparities in in-hospital quality of AMI care and their impact on 1-year cardiac readmission. Methods and Results We used data from the VIRGO (Variation in Recovery: Role of Gender on Outcomes of Young AMI Patients) study enrolling young Black and White US adults with AMI (2008-2012). An in-hospital quality of care score (QCS) was computed (standard AMI quality indicators divided by the total a patient is eligible for). Multivariable logistic regression was performed to identify factors associated with the lowest QCS tertile, including interactions between race and social determinants of health. Among 2846 young adults with AMI (median 48 years [interquartile range 44-52], 67.4% women, 18.8% Black race), Black individuals, especially women, exhibited a higher prevalence of cardiac risk factors and social determinants of health and were more likely to experience a non-ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction than White individuals. Black individuals were more likely in the lowest QCS tertile than White individuals (40.8% versus 34.7%; P=0.003). The association between Black race and low QCS (odds ratio [OR], 1.25; 95% CI, 1.02-1.54) was attenuated by adjustment for confounders. Employment was independently associated with better QCS, especially among Black participants (OR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.62-0.92; P-_interaction=0.02). Black individuals experienced a higher rate of 1-year cardiac readmission (29.9% versus 20.0%; P<0.0001). Conclusions Black individuals with AMI received lower in-hospital quality of care and exhibited a higher rate of cardiac readmissions than White individuals. Black individuals had a lower quality of care if unemployed, highlighting the intersection of race and social determinants of health.

A SAS macro for modelling periodic data using cosinor analysis

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Cosinor analysis, developed by Franz Hallberg and colleagues in the 1960s, allows for the fitting of a cosine curve to data of a known period. Cosinor analysis is frequently used in the analysis of biological rhythm data. While software exists to perform these analyses, we are not aware of any published SAS procedures or macros which would facilitate them.

METHODS

To meet this gap, we herein describe SAS macros which perform cosinor analyses that assume either normally or gamma distributed outcomes and fixed period. The macros can 1) produce datasets with cosinor parameters including acrophase, mesor, amplitude, nadir and test for rhythmicity 2) output datasets with fitted and observed values from the model, and 3) plot the resulting curve and underlying data.

RESULTS

We demonstrate the use of these macros with data from our research on circadian rhythms of heart rate and sleep in critically ill patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Cosinor analysis provides a parsimonious and intuitive set of estimates to summarize periodic data. We are hopeful that the publication of our macro will allow a wider spectrum of users to avail themselves of this technique.

A Longitudinal Analysis of Functional Disability, Recovery, and Nursing Home Utilization After Hospitalization for Ambulatory Care Sensitive Conditions Among Community-Living Older Persons

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE

Hospitalizations for ambulatory care sensitive conditions (ACSCs) are considered potentially preventable. With little known about the functional outcomes of older persons after ACSC-related hospitalizations, our objectives were to describe: (1) the 6-month course of postdischarge functional disability, (2) the cumulative monthly probability of functional recovery, and (3) the cumulative monthly probability of incident nursing home (NH) admission.

METHODS

The analytic sample included 251 ACSC-related hospitalizations from a cohort of 754 nondisabled, community-living persons aged 70 years and older who were interviewed monthly for up to 19 years. Patient-reported disability scores in basic, instrumental, and mobility activities ranged from 0 to 13. Functional recovery was defined as returning within 6 months of discharge to a total disability score less than or equal to that immediately preceding hospitalization.

RESULTS

The mean age was 85.1 years, and the mean disability score was 5.4 in the month prior to the ACSC-related hospitalization. After the ACSC-related hospitalization, total disability scores peaked at month 1 and improved modestly over the next 5 months, but remained greater than the pre-hospitalization score. Functional recovery was achieved by 70% of patients, and incident NH admission was experienced by 50% within 6 months after the 251 ACSC-related hospitalizations.

CONCLUSIONS

During the 6 months after an ACSC-related hospitalization, older persons exhibited total disability scores that were higher than those immediately preceding hospitalization, with 3 of 10 not achieving functional recovery and half experiencing incident NH admission. These findings provide evidence that older persons experience clinically meaningful adverse patient-reported outcomes after ACSC-related hospitalizations.

Geriatric conditions and treatment burden following diagnosis of non-muscle- invasive bladder cancer in older adults: A population-based analysis

INTRODUCTION

Treatment burden is emerging as an important patient-centered outcome for older adults with cancer who concurrently manage geriatric conditions. Our objective was to evaluate the contribution of geriatric conditions to treatment burden in older adults with non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC).

METHODS

We identified 73,395 Medicare beneficiaries age 66+ diagnosed with NMIBC (Stage <II) in SEER-Medicare (2001-2014). The primary outcome was treatment burden, defined as health system contact days in the year following NMIBC diagnosis. Explanatory variables were the following geriatric conditions: multimorbidity (≥ 2 chronic conditions), functional dependency, falls, depression, cognitive impairment, weight loss, and urinary incontinence. We used negative binomial regression to model the association between individual geriatric conditions and treatment burden while adjusting for covariates.

RESULTS

At baseline, 64% had multimorbidity and median 3 conditions (IQR 0-5). Prevalence of other geriatric conditions ranged from 5.9%-15.2%. Adjusted mean health system contact was 8.9 days (95% CI 8.6-9.2). Multimorbidity had the largest effect size (adjusted mean 11.8 contact days (95% CI 8.3-8.8)). Each additional chronic condition conferred a 13% increased average number of health system contact (adjusted IRR 1.132, 95% CI 1.129-1.135). Regardless of number of chronic conditions, rural patients consistently had more treatment burden than urban counterparts.

DISCUSSION

In this population-based cohort of older NMIBC patients, multimorbidity and rurality were strongly associated with treatment burden in the year following NMIBC diagnosis. These findings highlight the need for interventions that reduce treatment burden due to geriatric conditions among the growing population of older adults with cancer, particularly in rural areas.

Functional Effects of Intervening Illnesses and Injuries After Hospitalization for Major Surgery in Community-living Older Persons

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the functional effects of intervening illnesses and injuries, that is, events, in the year after major surgery.

BACKGROUND

Intervening events have pronounced deleterious effects on functional status in older persons, but have not been carefully evaluated after major surgery.

METHODS

From a cohort of 754 community-living persons, aged 70+ years, 317 admissions for major surgery were identified from 244 participants who were discharged from the hospital. Functional status (13 activities) and exposure to intervening hospitalizations, emergency department (ED) visits, and restricted activity were assessed each month. Comprehensive assessments (for covariates) were completed every 18 months.

RESULTS

In the year after major surgery, exposure rates (95% CI) per 100-person months to hospitalizations, ED visits, and restricted activity were 10.0 (8.0-12.5), 3.9 (2.8-5.4), and 12.3 (10.2-14.8) for functional recovery and 7.2 (6.1-8.5), 2.5 (1.9-3.2), 11.2 (9.8-12.9) for functional decline. Each of the 3 intervening events were independently associated with reduced recovery, with adjusted hazard ratios (95% CI) of 0.20 (0.09-0.47), 0.35 (0.15-0.81), and 0.57 (0.36-0.90) for hospitalizations, ED visits, and restricted activity. For functional decline, the corresponding odds ratios (95% CI) were 5.68 (3.87-8.33), 1.90 (1.13-3.20), and 1.30 (0.96-1.75). The effect sizes for hospitalizations and ED visits were larger than those for the covariates.

CONCLUSIONS

Intervening illnesses/injuries are common in the year after major surgery, and those leading to hospitalization and ED visit are strongly associated with adverse functional outcomes, with effect sizes larger than those of traditional risk factors.

Assessing elderly's functional balance and mobility via analyzing data from waist-mounted tri-axial wearable accelerometers in timed up and go tests

Background

Poor balance has been cited as one of the key causal factors of falls. Timely detection of balance impairment can help identify the elderly prone to falls and also trigger early interventions to prevent them. The goal of this study was to develop a surrogate approach for assessing elderly’s functional balance based on Short Form Berg Balance Scale (SFBBS) score.

Methods

Data were collected from a waist-mounted tri-axial accelerometer while participants performed a timed up and go test. Clinically relevant variables were extracted from the segmented accelerometer signals for fitting SFBBS predictive models. Regularized regression together with random-shuffle-split cross-validation was used to facilitate the development of the predictive models for automatic balance estimation.

Results

Eighty-five community-dwelling older adults (72.12 ± 6.99 year) participated in our study. Our results demonstrated that combined clinical and sensor-based variables, together with regularized regression and cross-validation, achieved moderate-high predictive accuracy of SFBBS scores (mean MAE = 2.01 and mean RMSE = 2.55). Step length, gender, gait speed and linear acceleration variables describe the motor coordination were identified as significantly contributed variables of balance estimation. The predictive model also showed moderate-high discriminations in classifying the risk levels in the performance of three balance assessment motions in terms of AUC values of 0.72, 0.79 and 0.76 respectively.

Conclusions

The study presented a feasible option for quantitatively accurate, objectively measured, and unobtrusively collected functional balance assessment at the point-of-care or home environment. It also provided clinicians and elderly with stable and sensitive biomarkers for long-term monitoring of functional balance.

Spousal Influences on Monthly Disability in Late-Life Marriage in the Precipitating Events Project

OBJECTIVES

Few studies have examined spousal influences on disability in late-life marriage, and no prior study has examined these associations using monthly data. Drawing from interdependence theory, we hypothesized that one spouse currently having higher disability would be positively associated with their partner having higher disability in the next month. We also examined whether participants were at risk for increased disability when both spouses had higher prior disability. In addition, we examined gender differences in spousal associations.

METHOD

Data were from 37 married couples in the Precipitating Events Project, an ongoing longitudinal study of 754 initially nondisabled adults aged 70 years and older. Assessments included monthly disability (13 basic, instrumental, and mobility activities of daily living) and demographics.

RESULTS

As hypothesized, higher disability in one spouse was positively associated with higher subsequent disability in their partner. Also, wives with higher disability were especially vulnerable to subsequent increased disability when husbands had higher disability.

DISCUSSION

Incorporating a spouse's current disability level in modeling older adults' subsequent disability provides additional predictive information. Wives with greater disability may be at a particularly high risk of accelerated decline when their husbands have greater disability.

180-day readmission risk model for older adults with acute myocardial infarction: the SILVER-AMI study

OBJECTIVE

To develop a 180-day readmission risk model for older adults with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) that considered a broad range of clinical, demographic and age-related functional domains.

METHODS

We used data from ComprehenSIVe Evaluation of Risk in Older Adults with AMI (SILVER-AMI), a prospective cohort study that enrolled participants aged ≥75 years with AMI from 94 US hospitals. Participants underwent an in-hospital assessment of functional impairments, including cognition, vision, hearing and mobility. Clinical variables previously shown to be associated with readmission risk were also evaluated. The outcome was 180-day readmission. From an initial list of 72 variables, we used backward selection and Bayesian model averaging to derive a risk model (N=2004) that was subsequently internally validated (N=1002).

RESULTS

Of the 3006 SILVER-AMI participants discharged alive, mean age was 81.5 years, 44.4% were women and 10.5% were non-white. Within 180 days, 1222 participants (40.7%) were readmitted. The final risk model included 10 variables: history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, history of heart failure, initial heart rate, first diastolic blood pressure, ischaemic ECG changes, initial haemoglobin, ejection fraction, length of stay, self-reported health status and functional mobility. Model discrimination was moderate (0.68 derivation cohort, 0.65 validation cohort), with good calibration. The predicted readmission rate (derivation cohort) was 23.0% in the lowest quintile and 65.4% in the highest quintile.

CONCLUSIONS

Over 40% of participants in our sample experienced hospital readmission within 180 days of AMI. Our final readmission risk model included a broad range of characteristics, including functional mobility and self-reported health status, neither of which have been previously considered in 180-day risk models.

Trends in Restricting Symptoms at the End of Life from 1998 to 2019: A Cohort Study of Older Persons

OBJECTIVES

To describe changes in the occurrence of restricting symptoms at the end of life from 1998 to 2019 and compare these changes according to the condition leading to death.

DESIGN

Prospective longitudinal study.

SETTING

Greater New Haven, CT.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 665 decedents from a cohort of 754 community-living persons, 70 years or older.

MEASUREMENTS

The occurrence of 16 restricting symptoms was ascertained during monthly interviews. Information on the conditions leading to death was obtained from death certificates and comprehensive assessments that were completed every 18-months. For each restricting symptom, adjusted rates (per 100 person-months) were calculated separately for six multiyear time intervals.

RESULTS

From 1998 to 2019, rates decreased for five (31.3%) restricting symptoms (difficulty sleeping; chest pain or tightness; shortness of breath; cold or flu symptoms; and nausea, vomiting, or diarrhea), increased for three (18.8%: arm or leg weakness; urinary incontinence; and memory or thinking problem), and changed little for the other eight (50.0%: poor eyesight; anxiety; depression; musculoskeletal pain; fatigue; dizziness or unsteadiness; frequent or painful urination; and swelling in feet or ankles). The decrease in rates was most pronounced for shortness of breath, with a reduction from 15.0 (95% credible interval = 11.7-18.6) in 1998 to 2001 to 8.2 (95% credible interval = 5.9-10.5) in 2014 to 2019, yielding a rate ratio (95% credible interval) of 0.92 (0.86-0.98). When evaluated according to the condition leading to death, the results were similar, with 10 of the 13 statistically significant rate ratios representing decreases in rates over time and only 3 representing increases.

CONCLUSION

The occurrence of most restricting symptoms at the end of life has been decreasing or stable over the past two decades. These results suggest that end-of-life care has been improving, although additional efforts will be needed to further reduce symptom burden at the end of life.

Risk Model for Decline in Activities of Daily Living Among Older Adults Hospitalized With Acute Myocardial Infarction: The SILVER-AMI Study

Background

Functional decline (ie, a decrement in ability to perform everyday activities necessary to live independently) is common after acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and associated with poor long‐term outcomes; yet, we do not have a tool to identify older AMI survivors at risk for this important patient‐centered outcome.

Methods and Results

We used data from the prospective SILVER‐AMI (Comprehensive Evaluation of Risk Factors in Older Patients With Acute Myocardial Infarction) study of 3041 patients with AMI, aged ≥75 years, recruited from 94 US hospitals. Participants were assessed during hospitalization and at 6 months to collect data on demographics, geriatric impairments, psychosocial factors, and activities of daily living. Clinical variables were abstracted from the medical record. Functional decline was defined as a decrement in ability to independently perform essential activities of daily living (ie, bathing, dressing, transferring, and ambulation) from baseline to 6 months postdischarge. The mean age of the sample was 82±5 years; 57% were men, 90% were White, and 13% reported activity of daily living decline at 6 months postdischarge. The model identified older age, longer hospital stay, mobility impairment during hospitalization, preadmission physical activity, and depression as risk factors for decline. Revascularization during AMI hospitalization and ability to walk a quarter mile before AMI were associated with decreased risk. Model discrimination (c=0.78) and calibration were good.

Conclusions

We identified a parsimonious model that predicts risk of activity of daily living decline among older patients with AMI. This tool may aid in identifying older patients with AMI who may benefit from restorative therapies to optimize function after AMI.

Factors Associated With Insidious and Noninsidious Disability

BACKGROUND

Although disability is often precipitated by an illness/injury, it may arise insidiously. Our objectives were to identify the factors associated with the development of insidious and noninsidious disability and to determine whether these risk factors differ between the two types of disability.

METHODS

We prospectively evaluated 754 community-living persons, 70+ years, from 1998 to 2016. The unit of analysis was an 18-month person-interval, with risk factors assessed at the start of each interval. Disability in four activities of daily living and exposure to intervening events, defined as illnesses/injuries leading to hospitalization, emergency department visits, or restricted activity, were assessed each month. Insidious and noninsidious disability were defined based on the absence and presence of an intervening event.

RESULTS

The rate of noninsidious disability (21.7%) was twice that of insidious disability (10.8%). In multivariable recurrent-event Cox analyses, six factors were associated with both disability outcomes: non-Hispanic white race, lower extremity muscle weakness, poor manual dexterity, and (most strongly) frailty, cognitive impairment, and low functional self-efficacy. Three factors were associated with only noninsidious disability (older age, number of chronic conditions, and depressive symptoms), whereas four were associated with only insidious disability (female sex, lives with others, low SPPB score, and upper extremity weakness). The modest differences in risk factors identified for the two outcomes in multivariable analyses were less apparent in the bivariate analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

Although arising from different mechanisms, insidious and noninsidious disability share a similar set of risk factors. Interventions to prevent disability should prioritize this shared set of risk factors.

Serious Falls in Middle-Aged Veterans: Development and Validation of a Predictive Risk Model

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

Due to high rates of multimorbidity, polypharmacy, and hazardous alcohol and opioid use, middle-aged Veterans are at risk for serious falls (those prompting a visit with a healthcare provider), posing significant risk to their forthcoming geriatric health and quality of life. We developed and validated a predictive model of the 6-month risk of serious falls among middle-aged Veterans.

DESIGN

Cohort study.

SETTING

Veterans Health Administration (VA).

PARTICIPANTS

Veterans, aged 45 to 65 years, who presented for care within the VA between 2012 and 2015 (N = 275,940).

EXPOSURES

The exposures of primary interest were substance use (including alcohol and prescription opioid use), multimorbidity, and polypharmacy. Hazardous alcohol use was defined as an Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test - Consumption (AUDIT-C) score of 3 or greater for women and 4 or greater for men. We used International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision (ICD-9), codes to identify alcohol and illicit substance use disorders and identified prescription opioid use from pharmacy fill-refill data. We included counts of chronic medications and of physical and mental health comorbidities.

MEASUREMENTS

We identified serious falls using external cause of injury codes and a machine-learning algorithm that identified serious falls in radiology reports. We used multivariable logistic regression with general estimating equations to calculate risk. We used an integrated predictiveness curve to identify intervention thresholds.

RESULTS

Most of our sample (54%) was aged 60 years or younger. Duration of follow-up was up to 4 years. Veterans who fell were more likely to be female (11% vs 7%) and White (72% vs 68%). They experienced 43,641 serious falls during follow-up. We identified 16 key predictors of serious falls and five interaction terms. Model performance was enhanced by addition of opioid use, as evidenced by overall category-free net reclassification improvement of 0.32 (P < .001). Discrimination (C-statistic = 0.76) and calibration were excellent for both development and validation data sets.

CONCLUSION

We developed and internally validated a model to predict 6-month risk of serious falls among middle-aged Veterans with excellent discrimination and calibration.

Pilot Observational Study to Detect Diurnal Variation and Misalignment in Heart Rate Among Critically Ill Patients

Circadian disruption is common in critically ill patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). Understanding and treating circadian disruption in critical illness has significant potential to improve critical illness outcomes through improved cognitive, immune, cardiovascular, and metabolic function. Measurement of circadian alignment (i.e., circadian phase) can be resource-intensive as it requires frequent blood or urine sampling over 24 or more hours. Less cumbersome methods of assessing circadian alignment would advance investigations in this field. Thus, the objective of this study is to examine the feasibility of using continuous telemetry to assess diurnal variation in heart rate (HR) among medical ICU patients as a proxy for circadian alignment. In exploratory analyses, we tested for associations between misalignment of diurnal variation in HR and death during hospital admission. This was a prospective observational cohort study embedded within a prospective medical ICU biorepository. HR data were continuously collected (every 5 s) via telemetry systems for the duration of the medical ICU admission; the first 24 h of this data was analyzed. Patients were extensively characterized via medical record chart abstraction and patient interviews. Of the 56 patients with complete HR data, 48 (86%) had a detectable diurnal variation. Of these patients with diurnal variation, 39 (81%) were characterized as having the nadir of their HR outside of the normal range of 02:00–06:00 (“misalignment”). Interestingly, no deaths occurred in the patients with normally aligned diurnal variation; in contrast, there were seven deaths (out of 39 patients) in patients who had misaligned diurnal variation in HR. In an exploratory analysis, we found that the odds ratio of death for misaligned vs. aligned patients was increased at 4.38; however, this difference was not statistically significant (95% confidence interval 0.20–97.63). We conclude that diurnal variation in HR can be detected via continuous telemetric monitoring of critically ill patients. A majority of these patients with diurnal variation exhibited misalignment in their first 24 h of medical ICU admission. Exploratory analyses suggest possible associations between misalignment and death.

Recovery from Severe Disability that Develops Progressively Versus Catastrophically: Incidence, Risk Factors, and Intervening Events

BACKGROUND

Few prior studies have evaluated recovery after the onset of severe disability or have distinguished between the two subtypes of severe disability.

OBJECTIVES

To identify the risk factors and intervening illnesses and injuries (i.e., events) that are associated with reduced recovery after episodes of progressive and catastrophic severe disability.

DESIGN

Prospective longitudinal study of 754 nondisabled community-living persons, aged 70 years or older.

SETTING

Greater New Haven, CT, March 1998 to December 2016.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 431 episodes of severe disability were evaluated from 385 participants: 116 progressive (115 participants) and 315 catastrophic (270 participants).

MEASUREMENTS

Candidate risk factors were assessed every 18 months. Functional status and exposure to intervening events leading to hospitalization, emergency department visit, or restricted activity were assessed each month. Severe disability was defined as the need for personal assistance with three or more of four essential activities of daily living. Recovery was defined as return to independent function (no disability) within 6 months of developing severe disability.

RESULTS

Recovery occurred among 35.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 26.0%-48.0%) and 61.6% (95% CI = 53.5%-70.9%) of the 116 progressive and 315 catastrophic severe disability episodes, respectively. In the multivariable analyses, lives alone, frailty, and intervening hospitalization were each independently associated with reduced recovery from progressive disability, with adjusted hazard ratios (95% CIs) of 0.31 (0.15-0.64), 0.23 (0.12-0.45), and 0.27 (0.08-0.95), respectively, whereas low functional self-efficacy, intervening restricted activity, and intervening hospitalization were each independently associated with reduced recovery from catastrophic disability, with adjusted hazard ratios (95% CIs) of 0.56 (0.40-0.81), 0.55 (0.35-0.85), and 0.45 (0.31-0.66), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Recovery of independent function is considerably more likely after the onset of catastrophic than progressive severe disability, the risk factors for reduced recovery differ between progressive and catastrophic severe disability, and subsequent exposure to intervening illnesses and injuries considerably diminishes the likelihood of recovery from both subtypes of severe disability.

Risk Factors and Precipitants of Severe Disability Among Community-Living Older Persons

IMPORTANCE

Severe disability greatly diminishes quality of life and often leads to a protracted period of long-term care or death, yet the processes underlying severe disability have not been fully evaluated.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate potential risk factors and precipitants associated with severe disability that develops progressively (during ≥2 months) vs catastrophically (from 1 month to the next).

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

Prospective cohort study conducted in greater New Haven, Connecticut, from March 1998 to December 2016, with 754 nondisabled community-living persons aged 70 years or older. Data analysis was conducted from November 2018 to May 2019.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Candidate risk factors were assessed every 18 months. Functional status and potential precipitants, including illnesses or injuries leading to hospitalization, emergency department visit, or restricted activity, were assessed each month. Severe disability was defined as the need for personal assistance with at least 3 of 4 essential activities of daily living. The analysis was based on person-months within 18-month intervals.

RESULTS

The mean (SD) age for the 754 participants was 78.4 (5.3) years, 487 (64.6%) were women, and 683 (90.5%) were non-Hispanic white participants. The incidence of progressive and catastrophic severe disability was 3.5% and 9.7%, respectively, based on 3550 intervals. In multivariable analysis, 6 risk factors were independently associated with progressive disability (≥85 years: hazard ratio [HR], 1.6; 95% CI, 1.1-2.4; hearing impairment: HR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.0-2.8; frailty: HR, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.6-3.7; cognitive impairment: HR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.3-3.1; low functional self-efficacy: HR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.2-2.8; low peak flow: HR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.2-2.4), and 4 were independently associated with catastrophic disability (visual impairment: HR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.1-1.8; hearing impairment: HR, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.0-1.7; poor physical performance: HR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.3-2.5; low peak flow: HR, 1.3; 95% CI, 1.0-1.7). The associations of the precipitants were much more pronounced than those of the risk factors, with HRs as high as 321.4 (95% CI, 194.5-531.0) for hospitalization and catastrophic disability and 48.3 (95% CI, 31.0%-75.4%) for hospitalization and progressive disability. Elimination of an intervening hospitalization was associated with a decrease in the risk of progressive and catastrophic severe disability of 3.0% (95% CI, 3.0%-3.1%) and 12.3% (95% CI, 12.1%-12.5%), respectively. Risk differences were 0.6% (95% CI, 0.6%-0.6%) and 1.3% (95% CI, 1.3%-1.4%) for emergency department visit and 0.1% (95% CI, 0.1%-0.2%) and 0.4% (95% CI, 0.4%-0.4%) for restricted activity, and ranged from 0.1% (95% CI, 0.1%-0.1%) to 0.3% (95% CI, 0.3%-0.3%) for the independent risk factors, for progressive and catastrophic disability, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

The findings of this study suggest that whether it develops progressively or catastrophically, severe disability among older community-living adults arises most commonly in the setting of an intervening illness or injury. To reduce the burden of severe disability, more aggressive efforts will be needed to prevent and manage intervening illnesses or injuries and to facilitate recovery after these debilitating events.

Thirty-Day Readmission Risk Model for Older Adults Hospitalized With Acute Myocardial Infarction

BACKGROUND

Early readmissions among older adults hospitalized for acute myocardial infarction (AMI) are costly and difficult to predict. Aging-related functional impairments may inform risk prediction but are unavailable in most studies. Our objective was to, therefore, develop and validate an AMI readmission risk model for older patients who considered functional impairments and was suitable for use before hospital discharge.

METHODS AND RESULTS

SILVER-AMI (Comprehensive Evaluation of Risk in Older Adults with AMI) is a prospective cohort study of 3006 patients of age ≥75 years hospitalized with AMI at 94 US hospitals. Participants underwent in-hospital assessment of functional impairments including cognition, vision, hearing, and mobility. Other variables plausibly associated with readmissions were also collected. The outcome was all-cause readmission at 30 days. We used backward selection and Bayesian model averaging to derive (N=2004) a risk model that was subsequently validated (N=1002). Mean age was 81.5 years, 44.4% were women, and 10.5% were nonwhite. Within 30 days, 547 participants (18.2%) were readmitted. Readmitted participants were older, had more comorbidities, and had a higher prevalence of functional impairments, including activities of daily living disability (17.0% versus 13.0%; P=0.013) and impaired functional mobility (72.5% versus 53.6%; P<0.001). The final risk model included 8 variables: functional mobility, ejection fraction, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, arrhythmia, acute kidney injury, first diastolic blood pressure, P2Y12 inhibitor use, and general health status. Functional mobility was the only functional impairment variable retained but was the strongest predictor. The model was well calibrated (Hosmer-Lemeshow P value >0.05) with moderate discrimination (C statistics: 0.65 derivation cohort and 0.63 validation cohort). Functional mobility significantly improved performance of the risk model (net reclassification improvement index =20%; P<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In our final risk model, functional mobility, previously not included in readmission risk models, was the strongest predictor of 30-day readmission among older adults after AMI. The modest discrimination indicates that much of the variability in readmission risk among this population remains unexplained by patient-level factors.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01755052.

Association between metabolic syndrome and recurrence of nonmuscle-invasive bladder cancer in older adults

BACKGROUND

Nonmuscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) disproportionately affects older adults who often have coexisting chronic conditions such as metabolic syndrome (MetS). Although prior research suggests that MetS is a risk factor for NMIBC, limited data exists on whether MetS is associated with NMIBC recurrence. Our objective was to evaluate the association between MetS and recurrence in older adults treated for NMIBC.

METHODS

We identified 1,485 older (age ≥60 years) NMIBC patients (American Joint Committee on Cancer Stage ≤1) from 2community-based health systems. Using data from the health systems' electronic medical record, MetS was defined as the presence of three of the following: diagnosis codes indicating hypertension, hyperlipidemia, diabetes, or body mass index >30. Follow up time was determined by date of the last follow up in the tumor registry and censored at 10 years. Cox proportional hazards regression of time to recurrence that accounts for the competing risk of death included adjustment for age, sex, smoking status, health system, NMIBC stage/grade, tumor size, and number of specimens with cancer.

RESULTS

Overall, 341 patients (23%) met MetS criteria. Median follow up was 5.9 years and 582 patients (39.2%) died. Patients with MetS were more frequently male (84.2%), and mostly current/former smokers (82.6%). By 10 years, 34.1% of the cohort had experienced a recurrence. After accounting for the competing risk of death, there was no association between MetS and time to recurrence (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.88, 95% confidence interval 0.70-1.11, P = 0.28). Patients without MetS had more 0a/low grade recurrences (49.1% vs. 41.4%), though differences were not significant.

CONCLUSION

We found no association between MetS and risk of NMIBC recurrence in this large, multisite cohort of older adults with NMIBC. In order to design personalized care for older NMIBC patients, future research is needed to evaluate associations between common chronic conditions and a variety of oncologic outcomes.

Weight change in heart failure inpatients not associated with 30-day readmission

Background: The association of weight change and short-term readmission in patients hospitalized for heart failure (HF) has not been well studied. Methods: We collected clinical and weight data from patients admitted with decompensated HF to a single center (2012-2013). We performed logistic regression to determine the association between weight change and two outcomes: a total of 30-day HF-specific readmission and 30-day all-cause readmission. Results: Admission and discharge weights were documented in 479/658 patients (73%). Weight loss >2 kg was not associated with 30-day all-cause or HF-specific readmission when compared with more modest inpatient weight change (-2 kg to +2 kg; all-cause readmission odds ratio: 0.86; CI: 0.56-1.37; HF-specific readmission odds ratio: 1.15; CI: 0.61-2.16). Conclusion: Among HF inpatients, in-hospital weight loss was not associated with 30-day all-cause or HF-specific readmission.

Home Health Rehabilitation Utilization Among Medicare Beneficiaries Following Critical Illness

OBJECTIVES

Medicare beneficiaries recovering from a critical illness are increasingly being discharged home instead of to post-acute care facilities. Rehabilitation services are commonly recommended for intensive care unit (ICU) survivors; however, little is known about the frequency and dose of home-based rehabilitation in this population.

DESIGN

Retrospective analysis of 2012 Medicare hospital and home health (HH) claims data, linked with assessment data from the Medicare Outcomes and Assessment Information Set.

SETTING

Participant homes.

PARTICIPANTS

Medicare beneficiaries recovering from an ICU stay longer than 24 hours, who were discharged directly home with HH services within 7 days of discharge and survived without readmission or hospice transfer for at least 30 days (n = 3,176).

MEASUREMENTS

Count of rehabilitation visits received during HH care episode.

RESULTS

A total of 19,564 rehabilitation visits were delivered to ICU survivors over 118,145 person-days in HH settings, a rate of 1.16 visits per week. One-third of ICU survivors received no rehabilitation visits during HH care. In adjusted models, those with the highest baseline disability received 30% more visits (rate ratio [RR] = 1.30; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.17-1.45) than those with the least disability. Conversely, an inverse relationship was found between multimorbidity (Elixhauser scores) and count of rehabilitation visits received; those with the highest tertile of Elixhauser scores received 11% fewer visits (RR = .89; 95% CI = .81-.99) than those in the lowest tertile. Participants living in a rural setting (vs urban) received 6% fewer visits (RR = .94; 95% CI = .91-.98); those who lived alone received 11% fewer visits (RR = .89; 95% CI = .82-.96) than those who lived with others.

CONCLUSION

On average, Medicare beneficiaries discharged home after a critical illness receive few rehabilitation visits in the early post-hospitalization period. Those who had more comorbidities, who lived alone, or who lived in rural settings received even fewer visits, suggesting a need for their consideration during discharge planning. J Am Geriatr Soc 68:1512-1519, 2020.

Predicting 6-Month Mortality for Older Adults Hospitalized With Acute Myocardial Infarction: A Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Older adults with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) have higher prevalence of functional impairments, including deficits in cognition, strength, and sensory domains, than their younger counterparts.

OBJECTIVE

To develop and evaluate the prognostic utility of a risk model for 6-month post-AMI mortality in older adults that incorporates information about functional impairments.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01755052).

SETTING

94 hospitals throughout the United States.

PARTICIPANTS

3006 persons aged 75 years or older who were hospitalized with AMI and discharged alive.

MEASUREMENTS

Functional impairments were assessed during hospitalization via direct measurement (cognition, mobility, muscle strength) or self-report (vision, hearing). Clinical variables associated with mortality in prior risk models were ascertained by chart review. Seventy-two candidate variables were selected for inclusion, and backward selection and Bayesian model averaging were used to derive (n = 2004 participants) and validate (n = 1002 participants) a model for 6-month mortality.

RESULTS

Participants' mean age was 81.5 years, 44.4% were women, and 10.5% were nonwhite. There were 266 deaths (8.8%) within 6 months. The final risk model included 15 variables, 4 of which were not included in prior risk models: hearing impairment, mobility impairment, weight loss, and lower patient-reported health status. The model was well calibrated (Hosmer-Lemeshow P > 0.05) and showed good discrimination (area under the curve for the validation cohort = 0.84). Adding functional impairments significantly improved model performance, as evidenced by category-free net reclassification improvement indices of 0.21 (P = 0.008) for hearing impairment and 0.26 (P < 0.001) for mobility impairment.

LIMITATION

The model was not externally validated.

CONCLUSION

A newly developed model for 6-month post-AMI mortality in older adults was well calibrated and had good discriminatory ability. This model may be useful in decision making at hospital discharge.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute of the National Institutes of Health.

Cohort Profile: The Precipitating Events Project (PEP Study)

The Precipitating Events Project (PEP Study) is an ongoing longitudinal study of 754 nondisabled community-living persons age 70 years or older who were members of a large health plan in greater New Haven, Connecticut, USA. The study was established to rigorously evaluate the epidemiology of disability in older persons and to elucidate the role of intervening illnesses and injuries on the disabling process. Of the eligible members, 75.2% agreed to participate and were enrolled between March 1998 and October 1999. Participants have completed comprehensive home-based assessments at 18-month intervals and have been interviewed monthly over the phone with a completion rate of 99%. Detailed participant-level data on health care utilization are obtained annually through linkages with Medicare claims. Through June 2019, 702 (93.1%) participants have died after a median of 109 months, while 43 (5.7%) have dropped out of the study after a median of 27 months. Death certificates are available for all decedents. To date, 117 original reports have been published using data from the PEP Study, including many focusing on other high priority areas such as end of life, frailty, depressive symptoms, aging stereotypes, pain, sleep, and methodologic research. The PEP Study welcomes proposals to access data for meritorious analyses from qualified investigators.