Distinguishing variation in referral accuracy from referral threshold: analysis of a national dataset of referrals for suspected cancer

The effect of local hospital waiting times on GP referrals for suspected cancer

INTRODUCTION

Reducing waiting times is a major policy objective in publicly-funded healthcare systems. However, reductions in waiting times can produce a demand response, which may offset increases in capacity. Early detection and diagnosis of cancer is a policy focus in many OECD countries, but prolonged waiting periods for specialist confirmation of diagnosis could impede this goal. We examine whether urgent GP referrals for suspected cancer patients are responsive to local hospital waiting times.

METHOD

We used annual counts of referrals from all 6,667 general practices to all 185 hospital Trusts in England between April 2012 and March 2018. Using a practice-level measure of local hospital waiting times based on breaches of the two-week maximum waiting time target, we examined the relationship between waiting times and urgent GP referrals for suspected cancer. To identify whether the relationship is driven by differences between practices or changes over time, we estimated three regression models: pooled linear regression, a between-practice estimator, and a within-practice estimator.

RESULTS

Ten percent higher rates of patients breaching the two-week wait target in local hospitals were associated with higher volumes of referrals in the pooled linear model (4.4%; CI 2.4% to 6.4%) and the between-practice estimator (12.0%; CI 5.5% to 18.5%). The relationship was not statistically significant using the within-practice estimator (1.0%; CI -0.4% to 2.5%).

CONCLUSION

The positive association between local hospital waiting times and GP demand for specialist diagnosis was caused by practices with higher levels of referrals facing longer local waiting times. Temporal changes in waiting times faced by individual practices were not related to changes in their referral volumes. GP referrals for diagnostic cancer services were not found to respond to waiting times in the short-term. In this setting, it may therefore be possible to reduce waiting times by increasing supply without consequently increasing demand.

A Bibliometric Analysis and Visualization of Decision Support Systems for Healthcare Referral Strategies

BACKGROUND

The referral process is an important research focus because of the potential consequences of delays, especially for patients with serious medical conditions that need immediate care, such as those with metastatic cancer. Thus, a systematic literature review of recent and influential manuscripts is critical to understanding the current methods and future directions in order to improve the referral process.

METHODS

A hybrid bibliometric-structured review was conducted using both quantitative and qualitative methodologies. Searches were conducted of three databases, Web of Science, Scopus, and PubMed, in addition to the references from the eligible papers. The papers were considered to be eligible if they were relevant English articles or reviews that were published from January 2010 to June 2021. The searches were conducted using three groups of keywords, and bibliometric analysis was performed, followed by content analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 163 papers that were published in impactful journals between January 2010 and June 2021 were selected. These papers were then reviewed, analyzed, and categorized as follows: descriptive analysis (n = 77), cause and effect (n = 12), interventions (n = 50), and quality management (n = 24). Six future research directions were identified.

CONCLUSIONS

Minimal attention was given to the study of the primary referral of blood cancer cases versus those with solid cancer types, which is a gap that future studies should address. More research is needed in order to optimize the referral process, specifically for suspected hematological cancer patients.

Effects of GP characteristics on unplanned hospital admissions and patient safety. A 9-year follow-up of all Norwegian out-of-hours contacts

BACKGROUND

There are substantial differences in hospital referrals between general practitioners (GPs); however, there is little research on the consequences for patient safety and further healthcare use.

OBJECTIVE

To investigate associations between out-of-hours GP characteristics, unplanned hospital admissions, and patient safety.

METHODS

This cohort study included all Norwegian out-of-hours services contacts from 2008 to 2016, linked to registry data on patient characteristics, healthcare use and death, and GP age, sex, specialist status, out-of-hours service experience, and prior admission proportion. We estimated the impact from GP characteristics on (i) immediate unplanned hospital admissions for "all conditions," (ii) immediate unplanned hospital admissions for "critical conditions," (iii) 30-day unplanned hospital admissions, (iv) 30-day hospital costs, and (v) 30-day risk of death. To limit confounding, we matched patients in groups by age, time, and location, with an assumption of random assignment of GPs to patients with this design.

RESULTS

Patients under the care of older and male GPs had fewer immediate unplanned hospital admissions, but the effects on cumulative 30-day unplanned hospital admissions and costs were small. The GPs' prior admission proportion was strongly associated with both immediate and 30-day unplanned hospital admissions. Higher prior admission proportion was also associated with admitting more patients with critical conditions. There was little evidence of any associations between GP characteristics and 30-day risk of death.

CONCLUSIONS

GPs' prior admission proportion was strongly associated with unplanned hospital admissions. We found little effects on 30-day mortality, but more restrictive referral practices may threaten patient safety through missing out on critical cases.

Equitable access to cancer patient pathways in Norway - a national registry-based study

Background

In 2015, cancer patient pathways (CPP) were implemented in Norway to reduce unnecessary non-medical delay in the diagnostic process and start of treatment. The main aim of this study was to investigate the equality in access to CPPs for patients with either lung, colorectal, breast or prostate cancer in Norway.

Methods

National population-based data on individual level from 2015 to 2017 were used to study two proportions; i) patients in CPPs without the cancer diagnosis, and ii) cancer patients included in CPPs. Logistic regression was applied to examine the associations between these proportions and place of residence (hospital referral area), age, education, income, comorbidity and travel time to hospital.

Results

Age and place of residence were the two most important factors for describing the variation in proportions. For the CPP patients, inconsistent differences were found for income and education, while for the cancer patients the probability of being included in a CPP increased with income.

Conclusions

The age effect can be related to both the increasing risk of cancer and increasing number of GP and hospital contacts with age. The non-systematic results for CPP patients according to income and education can be interpreted as equitable access, as opposed to the systematic differences found among cancer patients in different income groups. The inequalities between income groups among cancer patients and the inequalities based on the patients’ place of residence, for both CPP and cancer patients, are unwarranted and need to be addressed.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at (10.1186/s12913-021-07250-1).

Cancer detection via primary care urgent referral and association with practice characteristics: a retrospective cross-sectional study in England from 2009/2010 to 2018/2019

Background

There is substantial variation in the use of urgent suspected cancer referral (2-week wait [2WW]) between practices.

Aim

To examine the change in use of 2WW referrals in England over 10 years (2009/2010 to 2018/2019) and the practice and population factors associated with cancer detection.

Design and setting

Retrospective cross-sectional study of English general practices and their 2WW referral and Cancer Waiting Times database detection data (all cancers other than non-melanoma skin cancers) from 2009/2010 to 2018/2019.

Method

A retrospective study conducted using descriptive statistics of changes over 10 years in 2WW referral data. Yearly linear regression models were used to determine the association between cancer detection rates and quintiles of practice and population characteristics. Predicted cancer detection rates were calculated, as well as the difference between lowest to highest quintiles.

Results

Over the 10 years studied there were 14.89 million 2WW referrals (2.24 million in 2018/2019), and 2.68 million new cancer diagnoses, of which 1.26 million were detected following 2WW. The detection rate increased from 41% to 52% over the time period. In 2018/2019 an additional 66 172 cancers were detected via 2WW compared with 2009/2010. Higher cancer detection via 2WW referrals was associated with larger practices and those with younger GPs. From 2016/2017 onwards more deprived practice populations were associated with decreased cancer detection.

Conclusion

From 2009/2010 to 2018/2019 2WW referrals increased on average by 10% year on year. The most consistent association with higher cancer detection was found for larger practices and those with younger GPs, though these differences became attenuated over time. The more recent association between increased practice deprivation and lower cancer detection is a cause for concern. The COVID-19 pandemic has led to significant impacts on 2WW referral activity and the impact on patient outcomes will need to be studied.

A qualitative study of key stakeholders' perceived risks and benefits of psychiatric electroceutical interventions

Amid a renewed interest in alternatives to psychotherapy and medication to treat depression, there is limited data as to how different stakeholders perceive of the risks and benefits of psychiatric electroceutical interventions (PEIs), including electroconvulsive therapy (ECT) and deep brain stimulation (DBS). To address this gap, we conducted 48 semi-structured interviews, including 16 psychiatrists, 16 persons diagnosed with depression, and 16 members of the general public. To provide a basis of comparison, we asked participants to also compare each modality to front-line therapies for depression and to neurosurgical procedures used for non-psychiatric conditions. Across all stakeholder groups, perceived memory loss was the most frequently mentioned potential risk with ECT. The most discussed benefits across all stakeholder groups were efficacy and quick response. Psychiatrists most often referenced effectiveness when discussing ECT, while patients and the public did so when discussing DBS. Taken as a whole, these data highlight stakeholders' contrasting perspectives on the risks and benefits of electroceuticals.

Medical Practice Variation Among Primary Care Physicians: 1 Decade, 14 Health Services, and 3,238,498 Patient-Years

PURPOSE

Variation in medical practice is associated with poorer health outcomes, increased costs, disparities in care, and increased burden on the public health system. In the present study, we sought to describe and assess inter- and intra-primary care physician variation, adjusted for patient and clinic characteristics, over a decade of practice and across a broad range of health services.

METHODS

We assessed practice patterns of 251 primary care physicians in southern Israel. For each of 14 health services (imaging tests, cardiac tests, laboratory tests, and specialist visits) we described interphysician and intraphysician variation, adjusted for patient case mix and clinic characteristics, using the coefficient of variation. The adjusted rates were assessed by generalized linear negative-binomial mixed models.

RESULTS

The variation between physicians was on average 3-fold greater than the variation of individual physician practice over the years. Services with low utilization were associated with greater inter- and intraphysician variation: r_s = (-0.58), P = .03 and r_s = (-0.39), P = .17, respectively. In addition, physician utilization ranks averaged over all health services were consistent across the 14 health services (intraclass correlation coefficient, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.93-0.95).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results show greater variation in practice patterns between physicians than for individual physicians over the years. It appears that the variation remains high even after adjustment for patient and clinic characteristics and that the individual physician utilization patterns are stable across health services. We propose that personal behavioral characteristics of medical practitioners might explain this variation.

Association between use of urgent suspected cancer referral and mortality and stage at diagnosis: a 5-year national cohort study

BACKGROUND

There is considerable variation between GP practices in England in their use of urgent referral pathways for suspected cancer.

AIM

To determine the association between practice use of urgent referral and cancer stage at diagnosis and cancer patient mortality, for all cancers and the most common types of cancer (colorectal, lung, breast, and prostate).

DESIGN AND SETTING

National cohort study of 1.4 million patients diagnosed with cancer in England between 2011 and 2015.

METHOD

The cohort was stratified according to quintiles of urgent referral metrics. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to quantify risk of death, and logistic regression to calculate odds of late-stage (III/IV) versus early-stage (I/II) cancers in relation to referral quintiles and cancer type.

RESULTS

Cancer patients from the highest referring practices had a lower hazard of death (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.96; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.95 to 0.97), with similar patterns for individual cancers: colorectal (HR = 0.95; CI = 0.93 to 0.97); lung (HR = 0.95; CI = 0.94 to 0.97); breast (HR = 0.96; CI = 0.93 to 0.99); and prostate (HR = 0.88; CI = 0.85 to 0.91). Similarly, for cancer patients from these practices, there were lower odds of late-stage diagnosis for individual cancer types, except for colorectal cancer.

CONCLUSION

Higher practice use of referrals for suspected cancer is associated with lower mortality for the four most common types of cancer. A significant proportion of the observed mortality reduction is likely due to earlier stage at diagnosis, except for colorectal cancer. This adds to evidence supporting the lowering of referral thresholds and consequent increased use of urgent referral for suspected cancer.

Contribution of primary care organisation and specialist care provider to variation in GP referrals for suspected cancer: ecological analysis of national data

OBJECTIVES

To examine how much of the variation between general practices in referral rates and cancer detection rates is attributable to local health services rather than the practices or their populations.

DESIGN

Ecological analysis of national data on fast-track referrals for suspected cancer from general practices. Data were analysed at the levels of general practice, primary care organisation (Clinical Commissioning Group) and secondary care provider (Acute Hospital Trust) level. Analysis of variation in detection rate was by multilevel linear and Poisson regression.

SETTING

6379 group practices with data relating to more than 50 cancer cases diagnosed over the 5 years from 2013 to 2017.

OUTCOMES

Proportion of observed variation attributable to primary and secondary care organisations in standardised fast-track referral rate and in cancer detection rate before and after adjustment for practice characteristics.

RESULTS

Primary care organisation accounted for 21% of the variation between general practices in the standardised fast-track referral rate and 42% of the unadjusted variation in cancer detection rate. After adjusting for standardised fast-track referral rate, primary care organisation accounted for 31% of the variation in cancer detection rate (compared with 18% accounted for by practice characteristics). In areas where a hospital trust was the main provider for multiple primary care organisations, hospital trusts accounted for the majority of the variation attributable to local health services (between 63% and 69%).

CONCLUSION

This is the first large-scale finding that a substantial proportion of the variation between general practitioner practices in referrals is attributable to their local healthcare systems. Efforts to reduce variation need to focus not just on individual practices but on local diagnostic service provision and culture at the interface of primary and secondary care.

Point-of-care biliary ultrasound in the emergency department (BUSED): implications for surgical referral and emergency department wait times

BACKGROUND

Patients with uncomplicated biliary disease frequently present to the emergency department for assessment. To improve bedside clinical decision making, biliary point-of-care ultrasound (POCUS) in the emergency department has emerged as a diagnostic tool. The purpose of this study is to analyze the usefulness of POCUS in predicting the need for surgical intervention in biliary disease.

METHODS

A retrospective study of patients visiting the emergency department who received a biliary POCUS from December 1, 2016 to July 15, 2017 was performed. The physician interpretations of the biliary POCUS scans were collected, as well as data from the electronic health records including lab values, the subsequent use of diagnostic imaging, surgical consultation or intervention, and 28 days follow-up for representation or complication.

RESULTS

Two hundred and eighty-three patients were identified as having received biliary POCUS. Of the patients referred to general surgery who received biliary POCUS 43% received a cholecystectomy. For the outcome of cholecystectomy, the finding of gallstones on POCUS was 55% sensitive (95% CI 40% to 70%) and 92% specific (95% CI 87% to 95%). A sonographic Murphy's sign was 16% sensitive (95% CI 7% to 30%) but 95% specific (95% CI 92% to 97%) and, gallbladder wall thickness was 18% sensitive (95% CI 9% to 33%) and 98% specific (95% CI 95% to 99%). Patients who received POCUS but did not proceed to confirmatory radiology department imaging had a shorter length of stay (433 min ± 50 min vs. 309 min ± 30 min, P<0.001).

DISCUSSION

Point-of-care biliary ultrasound performed by emergency physicians provides timely access to diagnostic information. Positive findings of gallstones and increased gallbladder wall thickness are highly predictive of the need for surgical intervention, and use of POCUS is associated with shorter ER visits.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Retrospective cohort study, level III.

Abdominal symptoms and cancer in the abdomen: prospective cohort study in European primary care

BACKGROUND

Different abdominal symptoms may signal cancer, but their role is unclear.

AIM

To examine associations between abdominal symptoms and subsequent cancer diagnosed in the abdominal region.

DESIGN AND SETTING

Prospective cohort study comprising 493 GPs from surgeries in Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Scotland, Belgium, and the Netherlands.

METHOD

Over a 10-day period, the GPs recorded consecutive consultations and noted: patients who presented with abdominal symptoms pre-specified on the registration form; additional data on non-specific symptoms; and features of the consultation. Eight months later, data on all cancer diagnoses among all study patients in the participating general practices were requested from the GPs.

RESULTS

Consultations with 61 802 patients were recorded and abdominal symptoms were documented in 6264 (10.1%) patients. Malignancy, both abdominal and non-abdominal, was subsequently diagnosed in 511 patients (0.8%). Among patients with a new cancer in the abdomen (n = 251), 175 (69.7%) were diagnosed within 180 days after consultation. In a multivariate model, the highest sex- and age-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) was for the single symptom of rectal bleeding (HR 19.1, 95% confidence interval = 8.7 to 41.7). Positive predictive values of >3% were found for macroscopic haematuria, rectal bleeding, and involuntary weight loss, with variations according to age and sex. The three symptoms relating to irregular bleeding had particularly high specificity in terms of colorectal, uterine, and bladder cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

A patient with undiagnosed cancer may present with symptoms or no symptoms. Irregular bleeding must always be explained. Abdominal pain occurs with all types of abdominal cancer and several symptoms may signal colorectal cancer. The findings are important as they influence how GPs think and act, and how they can contribute to an earlier diagnosis of cancer.