Unravelling the determinants of medical practice variation in referrals among primary care physicians: insights from a retrospective cohort study in Southern Israel

OBJECTIVES

Reducing medical practice variation (MPV) is a central theme of system improvement because it is associated with poor health outcomes, increased costs and disparities in care. This study aimed to estimate the extent to which each determinant (patient, physician, clinic) explains MPV among primary care physicians and to identify the characteristics of health services with a greater explained variance.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study of primary care physicians practising in non-private clinics of Clalit Health Services in Southern Israel, for longer than a year between 2011 and 2017 and with more than 100 adult patients per practice. We assessed the variation in referral rates among 17 health services and the proportion explained by each domain (patient, physician and clinic). We used generalised linear negative binomial mixed models and the Nakagawa's R2, computing the marginal r2.

RESULTS

The study included 243 physicians working in 295 practices and 139 clinics. The mean-explained variance was 28.5%±10.0%, where physician characteristics explained 4.5% of the variation. The intrapractice variation (within a single physician between the years) was explained better than the interphysician (between physicians). Health services with high explained variation were blood tests characterised by both low intrapractice variation (Rs=-0.65, p value=0.005) and high referral rates (Rs=0.46, p value=0.06).

CONCLUSION

Over 70% of MPV is not explained by the patient, clinic and physician demographic and professional characteristics. Future research should focus on the fraction of MPV that is explained by the physicians' psychological characteristics, and thus potentially identify psychological targets for behavioural modifications aimed at reducing MPV.

The impact of the early onset neonatal sepsis calculator on antibiotic initiation: a single center study in Israel

To evaluate the effect of implementation of the Kaiser Permanente (KP) early onset sepsis (EOS) calculator in infants born at 34 week's gestation or more on antibiotic utilization and length of hospitalization. A single center, retrospective cohort study included all neonates born in Soroka Medical Center at 34 weeks gestation or more between January 1^st, 2015, and January 1^st, 2019, with a predefined maternal risk factor for EOS. Two cohorts of neonates were compared during two time periods, before and after the implementation of the KP calculator. Multivariable logistic and linear regressions were performed to assess the effect of the KP calculator on antibiotic treatment and length of hospitalization. Also, an interrupted time series (ITS) analysis was used to assess the time trends of the two periods. The study included 3858 neonates in the pre-implementation period and 3081 neonates in the post-implementation cohort. The use of the calculator resulted in a significant reduction (46%) in antibiotics treatment for suspected EOS (5.1 vs. 9.4%, P < 0.001). The ITS analysis demonstrated a sharp decline in the slope of antibiotic treatment in the post intervention period: (b = -0.14, p-value = 0.08). The length of hospitalization was significantly reduced in the post-implementation cohort from 62 to 60 h (p-value < 0.001) with no clinical significance. The incidence of EOS was similar in both groups.    Conclusion: A significant reduction in antibiotic treatment was demonstrated after the implementation of the KP calculator without an increase incidence of EOS. The calculator is a powerful accessory decision-making tool that can be used safely in combination with, but not replacing, thorough clinical assessment. What is Known: • The EOS calculator is a useful tool that leads to a significant reduction in preemptive antibiotic utilization. What is New: • The EOS calculator is sensitive when applied to the whole-nursery. • The calculator is useful in different populations, also when women are not routinely screened for GBS.

Maternal Blood Angiogenic Factors and the Prediction of Critical Adverse Perinatal Outcomes Among Small-for-Gestational-Age Pregnancies

OBJECTIVE

 Our objective was to determine whether maternal blood angiogenic factors in suspected-small-for-gestational-age (sSGA) fetuses can predict critical adverse perinatal outcomes (CAPO) and improve risk assessment.

METHODS

 Women with singleton pregnancies diagnosed with sSGA, between 24 and 356/7 weeks' gestation, were included. Clinical and sonographic comprehensive evaluations were performed at enrolment. Plasma angiogenic factors, soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 (sFlt-1) and placental growth factor (PlGF), were obtained at diagnosis. In parallel, three attending maternal-fetal-medicine specialists predicted the risk (1-5 scale) of these pregnancies to develop CAPO, based on the clinical presentation. CAPOs were defined as prolonged neonatal intensive care unit hospitalization, fetal or neonatal death, and major neonatal morbidity. Statistical analysis included sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, and receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyses.

RESULTS

 Of the 79 cases included, 32 were complicated by CAPO (40.5%). In SGA fetuses with CAPO, the sFlt-1/PlGF ratio was higher (p < 0.001) and PlGF was lower (p < 0.001) as compared with uncomplicated pregnancies. The areas under the ROC curves for specialists were 0.913, 0.824, and 0.811 and for PlGF and sFlt-1/PlGF ratio 0.926 and 0.900, respectively. CAPO was more common in pregnancies with absent end-diastolic flow or reversed end-diastolic flow (AEDF or REDF) in the umbilical artery upon enrolment (91.6%). Yet, 65.6% of cases involving CAPO occurred in patients without AEDF or REDF, and 66.6% of these cases were not identified by one or more of the experts. The sFlt-1/PlGF ratio identified 92.9% of the experts' errors in this group and 100% of the errors in cases with AEDF or REDF.

CONCLUSIONS

 Among sSGA pregnancies prior to 36 weeks' gestation, angiogenic factors testing can identify most cases later complicated with CAPO. Our data demonstrate for the first time that these markers can reduce clinician judgment errors. Incorporation of these measures into decision-making algorithms could potentially improve management, outcomes, and even health care costs.

KEY POINTS

· Angiogenic factors at diagnosis of sSGA can be used to predict CAPO.. · The sFlt-1/PlGF ratio can flag sSGA pregnancies at increased risk.. · The sFlt-1/PlGF ratio at admission of sSGA adds to clinical assessment..

Modified Shock Index as a Predictor for Mortality and Hospitalization Among Patients With Dementia

BACKGROUND

One in four older adults in the Emergency Department (ED) suffers from severe cognitive impairment, creating great difficulty for the emergency physicians who determine the urgency of their patients' condition, which informs decisions regarding discharge or hospitalization.

OBJECTIVE

Our objective was to determine whether modified shock index (MSI) can be a clinical mortality and hospitalization predictor when applied to older patients with dementia in the ED.

METHODS

Included in the research were all patients with dementia, > 65 years old, who arrived at the Soroka University Medical Center ED during 2014-2017. The population was divided into three groups according to their MSI score, calculated as heart rate/mean arterial pressure: MSI < 0.7; 0.7 > MSI < 1.3; and MSI > 1.3. We performed multivariable logistic regression as a predictor of death within 30 days, Cox analysis for number of days to death, and a negative binominal regression for predicting the number of admission days.

RESULTS

Included were 1437 patients diagnosed with dementia. Patients with an MSI > 1.3 vs. those with MSI < 0.7 had an odds ratio of 8.23 (95% confidence interval [CI] 4.64-4.54) for mortality within 30 days, increased mortality risk within 180 days (hazard ratio 4.42; 95% CI 2.64-7.41), and longer hospitalization duration (incidence rate ratio 1.8; 95% CI 1.32-2.45).

CONCLUSIONS

High MSI scores were associated with high mortality rates and longer hospitalization duration for patients diagnosed with dementia who were > 65 years old. We suggest performing prospective studies utilizing the MSI score as an indicator in ED triage settings to classify patients with dementia by their severity of risk, to determine if this benefits health, minimizes expenses, and prevents unnecessary hospitalizations.

Internal medicine physician embedded in an orthopedic service in a level 1 hospital: clinical impact

BACKGROUND

The aim of our study was to evaluate the impact of an internist physician specialized in diabetes, appointed as an in-house physician in the orthopedic wards, on improving clinical outcomes and in particular 30-day mortality.

METHODS

We analyzed a cohort of patients hospitalized more than 24 h in the orthopedic service. The analyses included a comparative analysis between the pre- and post-intervention time periods and an interrupted time series (ITS) analysis, which were conducted in stratification to three populations: whole population, patients with at least one chronic disease and/or older than 75 years of age and patients diagnosed with diabetes. The primary outcome was 30-day mortality following the hospitalization.

RESULTS

A total of 11,546 patients were included in the study, of which 19% (2212) were hospitalized in the post intervention period. Although in the comparative analysis there was no significant change in 30-day mortality, in the ITS there was a decrease in the mortality trend during the post intervention period in the entire and chronic disease/elderly populations, compared to no change during the pre-intervention period: a post-intervention slope of - 0.14(p value < 0.001) and  - 0.11(p value = 0.03), respectively. Additionally, we found decrease in length of stay, increase in transfers to the internal medicine department with a negative trend, increase in HbA1c testing during the hospitalization and changes in diabetes drugs administration.

CONCLUSION

The presence of an internist in the orthopedic wards is associated with health care improvement; decrease in the 30-day mortality trend, decrease in length of stay, increase in HbA1c testing during the hospitalization and an increase in diabetes drugs administration.

High parathyroid hormone levels after parathyroidectomy for parathyroid adenoma are not related to the cellularity of the remaining glands

BACKGROUND

Patients with primary hyperparathyroidism (PHPT) treated surgically occasionally have normalized calcium, but persistently high parathyroid hormone (PTH). We hypothesized that a possible explanation for this phenomenon is an underlying hyperplasia rather than adenoma.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort of patients who underwent parathyroidectomy for PHPT with biopsy of a normal-appearing parathyroid gland were included. Cellularity level of each biopsy and of the adenoma's rim was determined.

RESULTS

Forty-seven patients were included. Of them, 19 (40%) had postoperative normocalcemia but elevated PTH. There was no correlation between cellularity either in the rim or of the normal-appearing parathyroid gland and postoperative PTH. The postoperative high PTH group had higher preoperative PTH (P = 0.001) and larger adenomas (P = 0.025).

CONCLUSIONS

High PTH levels after successful parathyroidectomy in patients with primary hyperparathyroidism do not appear to result from underlying hyperplasia. A possible alternative explanation is that these patients have a higher preoperative burden of disease.

Air pollution and meteorological conditions during gestation and type 1 diabetes in offspring

BACKGROUND

Growing evidence indicates that air pollution is capable of disrupting the immune system and therefore, might be associated with an onset of Type 1 diabetes (T1D).

OBJECTIVES

We explored possible links of T1D with ambient exposures in the population of southern Israel, characterized by hot and dry climate and frequent dust storms.

METHODS

We conducted a matched nested case-control study where exposure to environmental pollutants during gestation in T1D cases was compared to that of healthy children. Up to 10 controls were matched to every case by age, gender and ethnicity, in all 362 cases and 3512 controls. Measurements of pollutants' concentrations, nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), sulphur dioxide (SO₂), ozone (O₃) and particulate matter of size less than 10 and 2.5 μm in diameter (PM₁₀ and PM_2.5), as well as the mean daily measurements of meteorological conditions were obtained from the local monitoring stations. The association between T1D and pollution, solar radiation (SR), temperature and relative humidity was adjusted for socioeconomic status, temperature, maternal age and pre-gestational maternal DM, using conditional logistic regression. The environmental exposures were presented as indicators of quartiles averaged over whole pregnancy and by trimesters.

RESULTS

Exposure to ozone and solar radiation during gestation were both associated with the T1D in offspring, although at borderline significance. Compared to the lowest quartile, the odds ratio (OR) for exposure to 3rd and 4th quartile of O₃ was equal 1.61 (95%CI: 0.95; 2.73) and 1.45 (95%CI: 0.83; 2.53), respectively. Likewise, the ORs for exposure to SR were equal 1.83 (95%CI: 0.92; 3.64), 2.54 (95%CI: 1.21; 5.29) and 2.06 (95%CI: 0.95; 4.45) for to 2nd, 3rd and 4th quartiles, respectively. Exposure to SO₂ followed a dose-response pattern, but was not statistically significant. Other environmental factors were not independently related to T1D. Analysis of exposures one year prior to the disease onset indicated a positive association between T1D and SR.

CONCLUSIONS

We showed that exposure to high ozone levels and solar radiation during gestation might be related to the T1D. More scientific evidence needs to accumulate to support the study findings.

Medical Practice Variation Among Primary Care Physicians: 1 Decade, 14 Health Services, and 3,238,498 Patient-Years

PURPOSE

Variation in medical practice is associated with poorer health outcomes, increased costs, disparities in care, and increased burden on the public health system. In the present study, we sought to describe and assess inter- and intra-primary care physician variation, adjusted for patient and clinic characteristics, over a decade of practice and across a broad range of health services.

METHODS

We assessed practice patterns of 251 primary care physicians in southern Israel. For each of 14 health services (imaging tests, cardiac tests, laboratory tests, and specialist visits) we described interphysician and intraphysician variation, adjusted for patient case mix and clinic characteristics, using the coefficient of variation. The adjusted rates were assessed by generalized linear negative-binomial mixed models.

RESULTS

The variation between physicians was on average 3-fold greater than the variation of individual physician practice over the years. Services with low utilization were associated with greater inter- and intraphysician variation: r_s = (-0.58), P = .03 and r_s = (-0.39), P = .17, respectively. In addition, physician utilization ranks averaged over all health services were consistent across the 14 health services (intraclass correlation coefficient, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.93-0.95).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results show greater variation in practice patterns between physicians than for individual physicians over the years. It appears that the variation remains high even after adjustment for patient and clinic characteristics and that the individual physician utilization patterns are stable across health services. We propose that personal behavioral characteristics of medical practitioners might explain this variation.

Comparison between three protocols of corneal collagen crosslinking in adults with progressive keratoconus: Standard versus accelerated CXL for keratoconus

OBJECTIVE

The study aimed to compare eye outcomes between the standard and accelerated corneal cross-linking (CXL) protocols over a 1-year follow-up, and assess whether the accelerated protocols are non-inferior to the standard.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study including patients older than 18 years diagnosed with progressive keratoconus who underwent a CXL procedure. The primary outcome was defined as an increase of more than 1.5 diopter (D) in Kmax. The analysis included intra- and inter-group comparisons assessing differences in eye characteristics before and 12 months after the procedure. Furthermore, we assessed whether the accelerated procedures were non-inferior to the standard regarding Kmax change after 12 months.

RESULTS

Eighty-four patients included in the study of which 23, 37 and 23 underwent the standard CXL (group I), 10-min. (group II) and the 3-min. (group III) accelerated procedures, respectively. Intra-group comparison before and after 12 months of mean Ksteep and anterior corneal astigmatism showed significant improvement only for group I (-0.3D decrease for both). Inter-group comparison showed better results after 12 months for group I (-0.9 ± 1.2) compared to group III (0.1 ± 0.8) in Ksteep, Kmean (-0.5+1. vs 0.1+0.7, respectively) and anterior astigmatism (-0.5 + 0.9 vs 0.3+1.1, respectively). We could not declare that the accelerated CXLs are non-inferior to the standard (p-value = 0.11 and 0.15).

CONCLUSION

The standard CXL showed better results for keratometry and astigmatism in comparison with the accelerated. Therefore, the wide use of the accelerated CXL should be considered and reviewed for longer follow-up time and larger sample size in focus on the visual acuity parameters.

Determinants of Medical Practice Variation Among Primary Care Physicians: Protocol for a Three Phase Study

BACKGROUND

One of the greatest challenges of modern health systems is the choice and use of resources needed to diagnose and treat patients. Medical practice variation (MPV) is a broad term which entails the differences between health care providers inclusive of both the overuse and underuse. In this paper, we describe a 3-phase research protocol examining MPV in primary care.

OBJECTIVE

We aim to identify the potential targets for behavioral modification interventions to reduce the variation in practice patterns and thus improve health care, decrease costs, and prevent disparities in care.

METHODS

The first phase will delineate the variation in primary care practice over a wide range of services and long follow-up period (2003-2017), the second will examine the 3 determinants of variation (ie, patient, physician, and clinic characteristics), and attempt to derive the unexplained variance. In the third phase, we will assess a novel component that might contribute to the previously unexplained variance - the physicians' personal behavioral characteristics (such as risk aversion, fear of malpractice, stress from uncertainty, empathy, and burnout).

RESULTS

This work was supported by the research grant from Israel National Institute for Health Policy Research (Grant No. 2014/134). Soroka University Medical Center Institutional Ethics Committee has approved the updated version of the study protocol (SOR-14-0063) in February 2019. All relevant data for phases 1 and 2, including patient, physician, and clinic, were collected from the Clalit Health Services data set in 2019 and are currently being analyzed. The evaluation of the individual physician characteristics (eg, risk aversion) by the face-to-face questionnaires was started on 2018 and remains in progress. We intend to publish the results during 2020-2021.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on the results of our study, we aim to propose a list of potential targets for focused behavioral intervention. Identifying new targets for such an intervention can potentially lead to a decrease in the unwarranted variation in the medical practice. We suggest that such an intervention will result in optimization of the health system, improvement of health outcomes, reduction of disparities in care and savings in cost.

INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID)

DERR1-10.2196/18673.

Does the physician in triage strategy improve door-to-balloon time for patients with STEMI?

Background

The physician in triage (PIT) strategy was implemented in the emergency department (ED) of the Soroka University Medical Center (SUMC) to improve overcrowding and waiting time. Our objective in the current study was to assess the impact of the PIT strategy on door-to-balloon time for the treatment of acute ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI).

Methods

The PIT programme began on January 2016, working weekdays between 8:00 and 23:00 hours. We included patients who visited the ED and were diagnosed with STEMI, from November 2014 to February 2018. The primary outcome was improvement in door-to-balloon (D2B) time <90 min between the preintervention and postintervention period. The analysis included a comparison between the two time periods using univariate tests, a time trend analysis illustrated by the locally weighted scatterplot smoothing curves and a regression analysis using generalised estimating equation models. To determine the impact of the PIT, as opposed to other changes in the department, we stratified the population arriving after January 2016 to patients arriving during PIT hours versus patients arriving on weekends and at nights (23:00–8:00 hours).

Results

In all, 415 patients met all the inclusion criteria of which 237 (57.1%) visited on weekdays 8:00–23:00 hours. The per cent of patients with D2B <90 min was 13.9% higher for postintervention versus preintervention visits (p=0.006). D2B time was significantly shorter by 9 min for postintervention visits (p=0.001). In the postintervention period, patients arriving between 8:00 and 23:00 hours on weekdays were more likely to have D2B <90 min than those arriving nights and weekends; 90/146 (61.6%) vs 47.2% (51/108), respectively, p=0.02. ORs for D2B <90 min was 2.04 (95% CI 1.06 to 3.91) for weekday visits, and 1.90 (0.88 to 4.12) for weekend and night visits.

Conclusion

The PIT model in SUMC is associated with D2B reduction for patients with STEMI. To achieve further reduction, both targeted interventions should be performed and PIT strategy should be applied for full time, including nights and weekends.

Temperature and preeclampsia: Epidemiological evidence that perturbation in maternal heat homeostasis affects pregnancy outcome

INTRODUCTION

This study aims to determine the association between temperature and preeclampsia and whether it is affected by seasonality and rural/urban lifestyle.

METHODS

This cohort study included women who delivered at our medical center from 2004 to 2013 (31,101 women, 64,566 deliveries). Temperature values were obtained from a spatiotemporally resolved estimation model performing predictions at a 1×1km spatial resolution. In "Warm" pregnancies >50% of gestation occurred during the spring-summer period. In cold pregnancies >50% of gestation occurred during the fall and winter. Generalized estimating equation multivariable models were used to estimate the association between temperature and incidence of preeclampsia.

RESULTS

1) The incidence of preeclampsia in at least one pregnancy was 7% (2173/64,566); 2) during "warm" pregnancies, an elevation of one IQR of the average temperature in the 1st or the 3rd trimesters was associated with an increased risk to develop preeclampsia [patients with Jewish ethnicity: 1st trimester: relative risk (RR) of 2.38(95%CI 1.50; 3.80), 3rd trimester 1.94(95%CI 1.34;2.81); Bedouins: 1st trimester: RR = 2.91(95%CI 1.98;4.28), 3rd trimester: RR = 2.37(95%CI 1.75;3.20)]; 3) In "cold" pregnancies, an elevation of one IQR of average temperature was associated with a lower risk to develop preeclampsia among patients with Bedouin-Arab ethnicity RR = 0.68 (95% CI 0.49-0.94) for 1st trimester and RR = 0.62 (95% CI 0.44-0.87) for 3rd trimester.

CONCLUSIONS

1) Elevated averaged temperature during the 1st or 3rd trimesters in "warm" pregnancies confer an increased risk for the development of preeclampsia, especially in nomadic patients; 2) Of interest, during cold pregnancies, elevated averaged temperature was associated with a lower risk to develop preeclampsia for nomadic patients. 3) These findings suggest temperature might be associated with perturbations in maternal heat homeostasis resulting in reallocation of energy resources and their availability to the fetus that may increase the risk for preeclampsia. This observation is especially relevant in the context of global warming and its effects on maternal/fetal reproductive health.

The Association Between Heat Waves and Other Meteorological Parameters and Snakebites: Israel National Study

BACKGROUND

Published annual estimates report a global burden of 2.5 million snakebite cases and >100,000 deaths. In Israel, envenomations are the third most frequent cause of poisonings that are of moderate to major clinical severity. Most studies focus on the clinical descriptions of snakebites in tropical climates, and we sought to investigate the association between snakebite frequency and meteorological parameters.

OBJECTIVE

We sought to investigate the seasonality of snakebites and evaluate the association between increasingly common heat waves and other meteorological parameters and snakebite frequency in a semiarid nontropical climate.

METHODS

We obtained data for all medical evacuations (2008-2015) because of snakebites in Israel. Climate data included daily 24-hour average temperature (°C) and relative humidity (%). We used a time-stratified case crossover method, in which a conditional logistic regression was applied to estimate the association, and we also stratified our analysis by season and by region.

RESULTS

We identified 1234 snakebite cases over 8 years, of which most (74.2%) occurred in hot seasons and between 6 pm and 9 pm. The risk of snakebite was positively associated with temperature >23°C (odds ratio [OR] 1.24, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01-1.53) and inversely with humidity >40% (OR 0.74, 95% CI 0.57-0.97). We also found an association with heat waves both in cold (OR 1.62, 95% CI 1.01-2.60) and hot seasons (OR 1.50, 95% CI 1.18-1.92).

CONCLUSIONS

In a semiarid nontropical climate, we observed an association between an increase in the number of snakebite cases and higher temperatures and lower humidity. Moreover, heat waves increased the frequency of snakebites in both cold and hot seasons.