Cost-effectiveness and value-based prices of the 9-valent human papillomavirus vaccine for the prevention of cervical cancer in China: an economic modelling analysis

Projections of cancer mortality by 2025 in central China: A modeling study of global burden of disease 2019

Background

In China, there are few studies that have reported future estimations for cancer mortality. Therefore, this study aimed to assess cancer mortality in China and identify priorities for future cancer control strategies.

Methods

Based on the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study, we extracted data on cancer-related deaths from 1990 to 2019 in Hunan Province, China. Under the current trends evaluated using a joinpoint regression model, we fitted a linear regression model for cancer mortality projections by 2025.

Results

The age-standardized mortality rate of total cancer in Hunan, China, declined slowly and is projected to be 140.80 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 140.12-141.48) by 2025, with the mortality rate in men approximately twice that in women. In 2025, the top five causes of cancer-related deaths in males are projected to be lung, liver, colorectal, stomach, and esophageal cancers, with the corresponding causes in females being lung, breast, colorectal, liver, and cervical cancers. Between 2019 and 2025, male mortality rates due to liver and pancreatic cancer are expected to increase, while those due to the six leading female cancers will increase. Excess male deaths were associated with liver and esophageal cancers, while all main cancers in females will have excess mortality, except for colorectal cancer.

Conclusion

A comprehensive cancer spectrum characteristic of both developing and developed countries will remain in Hunan, China. Lung cancer remains the most common cause of cancer-related deaths, and tobacco control efforts are urgently required. Additional efforts should be made to promote universal screening, improve access to cancer healthcare services, optimize medical payment models, and enhance access to valuable anticancer drugs.

Nationwide Prevalence and Genotype Distribution of High-Risk Human Papillomavirus Infection in China

OBJECTIVES

Extended high-risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV) genotype testing has recently been introduced in routine cervical cancer screening. Changes in national and regional hrHPV genotype prevalence offer an objective baseline indicator of the future impact of mass HPV vaccination and HPV-based cervical screening.

METHODS

This retrospective study reports nationwide hrHPV genotyping results from July 2018 to June 2019 in 29 KingMed Diagnostics laboratories throughout China.

RESULTS

In total, 2,458,227 hrHPV genotyping results were documented from KingMed's nationwide laboratory database during the study period. The overall prevalence of hrHPV-positive results was 19.1%, with twin peaks for highest hrHPV infection rates in women younger than 30 years of age (22.0%) and 50 years of age and older (21.8%). The most frequently detected hrHPV genotypes were HPV-52 (4.7%), HPV-16 (3.4%), HPV-53 (2.5%), HPV-58 (2.4%), HPV-51 (2.0%), and HPV-68 (1.6%). Overall, hrHPV-positive results varied regionally from 15.3% to 24.4%.

CONCLUSIONS

Nationwide hrHPV genotyping results from KingMed laboratories offer a baseline for measuring the future impact of large-scale HPV vaccination. High hrHPV infection rates in older (≥50 years) Chinese women likely reflect the limited extent of cervical screening in China. High rates of hrHPV infection and variable regional hrHPV genotype distribution may represent limiting factors for cost-effective implementation of hrHPV-based cervical screening in China.

Human papillomavirus vaccination at the national and provincial levels in China: a cost-effectiveness analysis using the PRIME model

Background

Human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines have been proven effective against cervical cancer. However, HPV vaccination is not included in the Chinese immunization program. This study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of incorporating different HPV vaccines into immunization programs at the Chinese national and provincial levels.

Methods

The Papillomavirus Rapid Interface for Modeling and Economics model was used to estimate the possible cost and social and economic benefits of adopting various HPV vaccination immunization strategies in 31 provinces in Mainland China in 2019. Demographic and regional economic data were obtained from the national and provincial Statistical Yearbook. The cost of vaccines was gathered from the centralized procurement information platform of all Chinese provinces. Treatment costs, epidemiological data, and other model parameters were obtained from published literature. The cost of vaccination, treatment costs saved, net costs, cases and deaths averted, life years saved, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) prevented, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were predicted both provincially and nationally. Deterministic sensitivity analyses were used to explore model uncertainty.

Results

The net cost of vaccinating with the domestic bivalent HPV vaccine was the lowest. At the national level, after bivalent or quadrivalent HPV vaccination, the number of cases and deaths averted due to cervical cancer were 12,545 and 5109, respectively, whereas the 9-valent HPV vaccine averted 28,140 cases and 11,459 deaths. HPV vaccines were cost-effective at a national level (maximum cost US$ 18,165 per DALY gained.) compared to the 3 times GDP per capita (US$ 30,837). Bivalent HPV vaccines were cost-effective in all 31 provinces. Imported quadrivalent and 9-valent HPV vaccines were cost-effective in 29 provinces, except Heilongjiang and Gansu. The univariate sensitivity analysis showed that the results were robust when the model parameters were changed, and that the discount rate was the main factor affecting the baseline results.

Conclusions

This study provides evidence that the inclusion of HPV vaccination in the immunization program would be cost-effective at a national level and in most provinces. Provinces with a higher population have more prevented cases, deaths, and DALYs. The economics of HPV vaccination at the provincial level differs from that at the national level, and provinces with an inability to pay should seek help from state subsidies.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-022-13056-5.

The cost-effectiveness of bivalent, quadrivalent, and nine-valent HPV vaccination in Asia: a systematic review

PURPOSE

The aim of this study was to systematically review the cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination in Asia.

METHODS

We performed a systematic review of papers indexed in PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science covering the period from 1 January 2000 to 13 August 2020.

RESULTS

Sixteen studies were included in the review. Half of them (8 studies) evaluated the cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination in high-income countries and regions (HICs) while the other eight studies were set in low- and middle-income countries and regions (LMICs). In HICs, the implementation of bivalent, quadrivalent and nine-valent HPV vaccination was all shown to be cost-effective. Most studies (7/8) also showed that it was cost-effective to implement bivalent, quadrivalent, and nine-valent HPV vaccines in LMICs. However, one study concluded that it was not cost-effective to implement bivalent HPV vaccination in Thailand.

CONCLUSION

In general, the implementation of bivalent, quadrivalent and nine-valent HPV vaccination for adolescent girls was cost-effective in both high-income countries and regions and low- and middle-income countries and regions in Asia. Policy makers in HICs could consider expanding the target vaccinated population, while for LMICs it is essential to reduce HPV vaccine price to a level at which the implementation of HPV vaccination is cost-effective.

Cost-Effectiveness of Bivalent, Quadrivalent, and Nonavalent HPV Vaccination in South Africa

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

In South Africa, the prevalence of human papillomavirus (HPV) and associated diseases, such as cervical cancer and genital warts, is among the highest in the world. This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of bivalent, quadrivalent, and nonavalent HPV vaccination for 9- to 14-year-old girls from the South African healthcare system perspective.

METHODS

A Markov model portraying the natural HPV disease progression from high-risk infection to cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) I, CIN II/III, or cervical cancer and from low-risk infection to genital warts was built. Transition probability, utility, and efficacy data were sourced from peer-reviewed literature. Vaccination costs were calculated based on the World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines. The model was populated with a cohort of 520,000 9-year-old girls to calculate incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) in South African Rand (R) per quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained for each vaccination strategy.

RESULTS

All HPV vaccination strategies dominate the no vaccine strategy. Compared with the bivalent vaccine, the nonavalent strategy increases QALYs by 0.14 and costs by R1793 (ICER: R13,013 per QALY) per person, while the quadrivalent vaccination provides -0.02 incremental QALYs and R1748 costs (ICER: -R116,397 per QALY). Consequently, at the South African willingness-to-pay threshold of R23,630 per QALY, nonavalent vaccination is the preferred strategy, with a probability of 90.2%. Scenario analysis demonstrated that results are influenced by vaccine coverage, efficacy, and duration of efficacy.

CONCLUSIONS

The introduction of nonavalent for bivalent HPV vaccination is a cost-effective intervention in South Africa. HPV vaccination should be part of a multifaceted public health strategy entailing screening, condoms, and education of all stakeholders to reduce the significant burden of sexual transmitted diseases in South Africa. Sex-neutral and catch-up vaccinations are subjects for further research.

Cost-effectiveness of human papillomavirus vaccine in China: a systematic review of modelling studies

OBJECTIVES

China suffers from high burdens of human papillomavirus (HPV) and cervical cancer, whereas the uptake of HPV vaccine remains low. The first Chinese domestic HPV vaccine was released in 2019. However, collective evidence on cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination in China has yet to be established. We summarised evidence on the cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccine in China.

DESIGN

Systematic review and narrative synthesis DATA SOURCES: PubMed, EMBASE, China National Knowledge Infrastructure and Wanfang Data were searched through 2 January 2021 ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR SELECTING STUDIES: Cost-effectiveness studies using a modelling approach focusing on HPV vaccination interventions in the setting of China were included for review.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

We extracted information from the selected studies focusing on cost-effectiveness results of various vaccination programmes, key contextual and methodological factors influencing cost-effectiveness estimates and an assessment of study quality.

RESULTS

A total of 14 studies were included for review. Considerable heterogeneity was found in terms of the methodologies used, HPV vaccination strategies evaluated and study quality. The reviewed studies generally supported the cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccine in China, although some reached alternative conclusions, particularly when assessed incremental to cervical cancer screening. Cost of vaccination was consistently identified as a key determinant for the cost-effectiveness of HPV vaccination programmes.

CONCLUSIONS

Implementing HPV vaccination programmes should be complemented with expanded cervical cancer screening, while the release of lower-priced domestic vaccine offers more promising potential for initiating public HPV vaccination programmes. Findings of this study contributes important evidence for policies for cervical cancer prevention in China and methodological implications for future modelling efforts.

Modeling the epidemiological impact and cost-effectiveness of a combined schoolgirl HPV vaccination and cervical cancer screening program among Chinese women

Human papillomavirus (HPV) infection is common in women and also the main cause of cervical cancer. Based on a dynamic compartmental model, we aimed to evaluate the population impact and cost-effectiveness of strategies that combined cervical cancer screening and HPV schoolgirl vaccination for Chinese women. The effectiveness of interventions was assessed by comparing modeled scenarios to the status quo, where a 3-y cervical cancer screening program remained at a 20% coverage and without a universal HPV vaccination program. Our study demonstrated that increasing screening coverage from 20% to 50% would reduce the high-risk HPV (HR-HPV) prevalence to 5.4%, whereas a universal schoolgirl vaccination program using the quadrivalent vaccine (qHPV) with a coverage of 50% would reduce the prevalence to 2.9% by 2069. Scaling-up the cervical screening coverage to 50% will prevent 16,012 (95% CI: 8,791 to 25,913) Disability-Adjusted Life-Years (DALYs) per year, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of US$ 10,958 (95% CI: $169 to $26,973)/DALY prevented. At the current qHPV price, vaccinating 50% of school girls will prevent 13,854 (95% CI: 8,355 to 20,776) DALYs/year, but the corresponding incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER, US$ 83,043, 95% CI: $52,234 to $138,025) exceeds cost-effectiveness threshold (i.e., 3 times GDP per-capita of China: $30,792). The qHPV vaccine requires at least a 50% price reduction to be cost-effective. Vaccinating schoolgirls will result in a large population health benefit in the long term, but such a universal HPV vaccination program can only be cost-effective with a substantial price reduction.

Clearance of human papillomavirus infection in patients with cervical intraepithelial neoplasia: A systemic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

There are currently no available standard drugs treating human papillomavirus (HPV) infection, especially for patients with low-grade cervical lesion. Several therapies are explored but the results are inconclusive. The objective of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of reported non-invasive treatments in patients with HPV infection and cervical lesions by meta-analysis.

METHODS

A comprehensive search of prospective and randomized studies published from April 2000 to April 2020 was conducted in electronic databases. The statistical analyses of the pooled risk ratios (RRs) and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were performed using the Revman 5.2 software.

RESULTS

Twelve articles including 12 randomized controlled studies and 1 prospective controlled randomized pilot study were enrolled. Therapeutic medications included biological and herbal regimen, interferon regimen and probiotics. The meta-analysis showed the experimental treatments had a statistically significant improvement in HPV clearance rate compared with the controls (RR = 0.71, 95% CI [0.63, 0.80], P < .00001); subgroup analyses stratified by regimen categories were consistent with results in the overall group. Treatment using biological and herbal regimen, interferon regimen or probiotics also resulted in a beneficial outcome in regression rate of cervical lesions compared with the controls (RR = 0.55, 95% CI [0.39, 0.79], P = .001). The trend was more favorable in the probiotics than that in the biological and herbal regimen (RR 0.48 vs 0.72).

CONCLUSION

Treatment of biological and herbal regimen, interferon regimen and probiotics benefit patients who have HPV infection and cervical lesions. Both the clearance of HPV and regression of cervical lesions are significant. More studies with less heterogeneity are needed to draw a concrete conclusion.