Cohort profile: a multicentre prospective validation cohort of the Chinese Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure (CATCH-LIFE) study

Characterization of acute-on-chronic liver diseases: A multicenter prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Acute-on-chronic liver disease (AoCLD) accounts for the majority of patients hospitalized in the Department of Hepatology or Infectious Diseases.

AIM

To explore the characterization of AoCLD to provide theoretical guidance for the accurate diagnosis and prognosis of AoCLD.

METHODS

Patients with AoCLD from the Chinese Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure (ACLF) study cohort were included in this study. The clinical characteristics and outcomes, and the 90-d survival rate associated with each clinical type of AoCLD were analyzed, using the Kaplan-Meier method and the log-rank test.

RESULTS

A total of 3375 patients with AoCLD were enrolled, including 1679 (49.7%) patients with liver cirrhosis acute decompensation (LC-AD), 850 (25.2%) patients with ACLF, 577 (17.1%) patients with chronic hepatitis acute exacerbation (CHAE), and 269 (8.0%) patients with liver cirrhosis active phase (LC-A). The most common cause of chronic liver disease (CLD) was HBV infection (71.4%). The most common precipitants of AoCLD was bacterial infection (22.8%). The 90-d mortality rates of each clinical subtype of AoCLD were 43.4% (232/535) for type-C ACLF, 36.0% (36/100) for type-B ACLF, 27.0% (58/215) for type-A ACLF, 9.0% (151/1679) for LC-AD, 3.0% (8/269) for LC-A, and 1.2% (7/577) for CHAE.

CONCLUSION

HBV infection is the main cause of CLD, and bacterial infection is the main precipitant of AoCLD. The most common clinical type of AoCLD is LC-AD. Early diagnosis and timely intervention are needed to reduce the mortality of patients with LC-AD or ACLF.

Association of AST/ALT ratio with 90-day outcomes in patients with acute exacerbation of chronic liver disease: a prospective multicenter cohort study in China

Background and aim

A high aspartate aminotransferase/alanine aminotransferase (AST/ALT) ratio is associated with liver injury in liver disease; however, no data exist regarding its relationship with 90-day prognosis in patients with acute exacerbation of chronic liver disease.

Methods

In this study, 3,758 participants (955 with advanced fibrosis and 2,803 with cirrhosis) from the CATCH-LIFE cohort in China were included. The relationships between different AST/ALT ratios and the risk of adverse 90-day outcomes (death or liver transplantation) were determined in patients with cirrhosis or hepatitis B virus (HBV)-associated advanced fibrosis, respectively.

Results

In the patients with HBV-associated advanced fibrosis, the risk of 90-day adverse outcomes increased with AST/ALT ratio; after adjusting for all confounding factors, the risk of adverse 90-day outcomes was the highest when AST/ALT ratio was more than 1.08 (OR = 6.91 [95% CI = 1.789-26.721], p = 0.005), and the AST/ALT ratio of >1.9 accelerated the development of adverse outcomes. In patients with cirrhosis, an AST/ALT ratio > 1.38 increased the risk of adverse 90-day outcomes in all univariables (OR = 1.551 [95% CI = 1.216-1.983], p < 0.001) and multivariable-adjusted analyses (OR = 1.847 [95% CI = 1.361-2.514], p < 0.001), and an elevated AST/ALT ratio (<2.65) accelerated the incidence of 90-day adverse outcomes. An AST/ALT ratio of >1.38 corresponded with a more than 20% incidence of adverse outcomes in patients with cirrhosis.

Conclusion

The AST/ALT ratio is an independent risk factor for adverse 90-day outcomes in patients with cirrhosis and HBV-associated advanced fibrosis. The cutoff values of the AST/ALT ratio could help clinicians monitor the condition of patients when making clinical decisions.

The clinical courses of HBV-related acute-on-chronic liver failure and a multi-state model to predict disease evolution

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a highly dynamic syndrome. The objective of this study was to delineate the clinical course of patients with HBV-ACLF and to develop a model to estimate the temporal evolution of disease severity.

METHODS

We enrolled eligible patients from 2 large, multicenter prospective cohorts. The ACLF grade, organ failures, and outcomes were assessed at multiple time points (days 1/4/7/14/21/28). Probabilities for ACLF transitions between these disease states and to death within 28 days were calculated using a multi-state model that used baseline information and updated ACLF status. The model was validated in independent patients.

RESULTS

Among all the 445 patients with HBV-ACLF, 76 represented disease progression, 195 had a stable or fluctuating course, 8 with improvement, and the remaining 166 with resolution within 28-day follow-up. New coagulation (63.64%) or renal failure (45.45%) was frequently observed during early progression. Patients with disease progression had a higher incidence of new episodes of ascites [10 (13.16%) vs. 22 (5.96%), p = 0.027] and HE [13(17.11%) vs. 21 (5.69%), p = 0.001], and a significant increase in white blood cell count. The multi-state model represented dynamic areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves ranging from 0.71 to 0.84 for predicting all ACLF states and death at 4, 7, 14, 21, and 28 days post-enrollment and from 0.73 to 0.94 for predicting death alone, performing better than traditional prognostic scores.

CONCLUSIONS

HBV-ACLF is a highly dynamic syndrome with reversibility. The multi-state model is a tool to estimate the temporal evolution of disease severity, which may inform clinical decisions on treatment.

Metabolic biomarkers significantly enhance the prediction of HBV-related ACLF occurrence and outcomes

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a clinical syndrome associated with high short-term mortality in patients with chronic liver disease. Chronic hepatitis B is the main cause of ACLF (HBV-ACLF) in China and other Asian countries. To improve disease management and survival for patients with ACLF, we aimed to discover novel biomarkers to enhance HBV-ACLF diagnosis and prognostication.

METHODS

We performed a metabolomics profiling of 1,024 plasma samples collected from patients with HBV-related chronic liver disease with acute exacerbation at hospital admission in a multi-year and multi-center prospective study (367 ACLF and 657 non-ACLF). The samples were randomly separated into equal halves as a discovery set and a validation set. We identified metabolites associated with 90-day mortality in the ACLF group and the progression to ACLF within 28 days in the non-ACLF group (pre-ACLF) using statistical analysis and machine learning. We developed diagnostic algorithms in the discovery set and used these to assess the findings in the validation set.

RESULTS

ACLF significantly altered the plasma metabolome, particularly in membrane lipid metabolism, steroid hormones, oxidative stress pathways, and energy metabolism. Numerous metabolites were significantly associated with 90-day mortality in the ACLF group and/or pre-ACLF in the non-ACLF group. We developed algorithms for the prediction of 90-day mortality in patients with ACLF (area under the curve 0.87 and 0.83 for the discovery set and validation set, respectively) and the diagnosis of pre-ACLF (area under the curve 0.94 and 0.88 for the discovery set and validation set, respectively). To translate our discoveries into practical clinical tests, we developed targeted assays using liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on novel metabolite biomarkers, we established tests for HBV-related ACLF with higher accuracy than existing methods.

CLINICAL TRIAL NUMBER

NCT02457637 and NCT03641872.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a clinical syndrome associated with high short-term mortality affecting 25% of patients hospitalized with cirrhosis. Chronic hepatitis B is the main etiology of ACLF in China and other Asian counties. There is currently no effective therapy. Early diagnosis and accurate prognostication are critical for improving clinical outcomes in patients with ACLF. Based on novel metabolite biomarkers, we developed liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry tests with improved accuracy for the early diagnosis and prognostication of HBV-related ACLF. The liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry tests can be implemented in clinical labs and used by physicians to triage patients with HBV-related ACLF to ensure optimized clinical management.

Investigation on the short‐term outcome and prognostic impact of predisposition, and precipitants in inpatients with chronic liver disease from Chinese AcuTe on CHronic LIver FailurE (CATCH‐LIFE) cohorts

Aim

The study aimed to investigate the short‐term outcomes of hospitalized patients with chronic liver disease (CLDs) and assess the prognostic impact of predisposition and precipitants, which currently remains unclear.

Methods

The study included 3970 hospitalized patients with CLDs from two prospective longitudinal multicenter studies (NCT02457637 and NCT03641872) conducted in highly endemic hepatitis B virus (HBV) areas. Competing risk analysis was used to evaluate the effect of predispositions, including the etiology and severity of CLDs and precipitants; on sequential 28, 90, and 365‐day liver transplantation (LT)‐free mortality.

Results

Among all enrolled patients, 76.8% of adverse outcomes (including death and LT) within one year occurred within 90 days. Compared with alcoholic etiology, the association of HBV etiology with poorer outcomes was remarkably on the 28th day (hazard ratio [HR], 1.81; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.07–3.06; p = 0.026); however, and diminished or became insignificant at 90 days and 365 days. Cirrhosis increased the adjusted risk for 365‐day (HR, 1.50; CI, 1.13–1.99; p = 0.004) LT‐free mortality when compared with noncirrhosis. In patients with cirrhosis, prior decompensation (PD) independently increased the adjusted risk of 365‐day LT‐free mortality by 1.25‐fold (p = 0.021); however, it did not increase the risk for 90‐day mortality. Neither the category nor the number of precipitants influenced the adjusted risk of 28 or 90‐day LT‐free mortality.

Conclusions

The 90‐day outcome should be considered a significant endpoint for evaluating the short‐term prognosis of hospitalized patients with CLD. Predisposing factors, other than etiology, mainly affected the delayed (365‐day) outcome. Timely effective therapy for CLD etiology, especially antiviral treatments for HBV, and post‐discharge long‐term surveillance monitoring in cirrhotic patients undergoing PD are suggested to enhance disease management and reduce mortality.

A novel prognostic nomogram for older patients with acute-on-chronic liver diseases (AoCLD): a nationwide, multicentre, prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

the incidence of acute-on-chronic liver disease (AoCLD) is increasing.

OBJECTIVE

to investigate the clinical features and risk factors of AoCLD and construct an effective prognostic nomogram model for older patients with AoCLD.

METHODS

data from 3,970 patients included in the CATCH-LIFE study were used, including 2,600 and 1,370 patients in the training and validation sets, respectively. Multivariate Cox regression analyses were performed to identify predictive risk factors in older individuals, and an easy-to-use nomogram was established. Performance was assessed using area under the curve, calibration plots and decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

of the 3,949 patients with AoCLD, 809 were older with a higher proportion of autoimmune-related abnormalities, hepatitis C viral infection and schistosomiasis. In the older patient group, the incidence of cirrhosis, hepatic encephalopathy (HE), infection, ascites and gastrointestinal bleeding; neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), aspartate-to-alanine transaminase ratio (AST/ALT), creatinine and blood urea nitrogen levels were higher, whereas incidence of acute-on-chronic liver failure, white blood cell, platelet and haemoglobin levels; albumin, total bilirubin (TB), AST and ALT levels; international normalised ratio (INR), estimated glomerular filtration rate and blood potassium levels were lower than in the younger group. The final nomogram was developed based on the multivariate Cox analysis in training cohort using six risk factors: ascites, HE grades, NLR, TB, INR and AST/ALT. Liver transplantation-free mortality predictions were comparable between the training and validation sets. DCA showed higher net benefit for the nomograph than the treat-all or treat-none strategies, with wider threshold probabilities ranges.

CONCLUSIONS

our analysis will assist clinical predictions and prognoses in older patients with AoCLD.

Portal vein thrombosis compromises the performance of MELD and MELD-Na scores in patients with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The accuracy of model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) and MELD with sodium (MELD-Na) scores in reflecting the clinical outcomes of patients with cirrhosis and portal vein thrombosis (PVT) remains unclear. This study aimed to evaluate the performance of scores in predicting 90-day mortality in patients with cirrhosis and PVT.

METHODS

Post hoc analysis was performed in two prospective cohorts (NCT02457637 and NCT03641872). The correlation between the MELD/MELD-Na score and 90-day liver transplantation (LT)-free mortality was investigated in patients with cirrhosis with and without PVT.

RESULTS

In this study, 2826 patients with cirrhosis were included, and 255 (9.02%) had PVT. The cumulative incidence of 90-day LT-free mortality did not significantly differ between patients with and without PVT (log-rank P = 0.0854). MELD [area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC), 0.649 vs. 0.842; P = 0.0036] and MELD-Na scores (AUROC, 0.691 vs. 0.851; P = 0.0108) were compared in patients with and without PVT, regarding the prediction of 90-day LT-free mortality. In MELD < 15 and MELD-Na < 20 subgroups, patients with PVT had a higher 90-day LT-free mortality than those without PVT (7.91% vs. 2.64%, log-rank P = 0.0011; 7.14% vs. 3.43%, log-rank P = 0.0223), whereas in MELD ≥ 15 and MELD-Na ≥ 20 subgroups, no significant difference was observed between patients with and without PVT.

CONCLUSIONS

The performance of MELD and MELD-Na scores in predicting 90-day LT-free mortality of patients with cirrhosis was compromised by PVT. MELD < 15 or MELD-Na < 20 may underestimate the 90-day LT-free mortality in patients with PVT.

Prognosis prediction performs better in patients with non-cirrhosis hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure than those with cirrhosis

Background

The accurate prediction of the outcome of hepatitis B virus-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) is impeded by population heterogeneity. The study aimed to assess the impact of underlying cirrhosis on the performance of clinical prediction models (CPMs).

Methods

Using data from two multicenter, prospective cohorts of patients with HBV-ACLF, the discrimination, calibration, and clinical benefit were assessed for CPMs predicting 28-day and 90-day outcomes in patients with cirrhosis and those without, respectively.

Results

A total of 919 patients with HBV-ACLF were identified by Chinese Group on the Study of Severe Hepatitis B (COSSH) criteria, including 675 with cirrhosis and 244 without. COSSH-ACLF IIs, COSSH-ACLFs, Chronic Liver Failure-Consortium Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure score (CLIF-C ACLFs), Tongji Prognostic Predictor Model score (TPPMs), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score (MELDs), and MELD-Sodium score (MELD-Nas) were all strong predictors of short-term mortality in patients with HBV-ACLF. In contrast to a high model discriminative capacity in ACLF without cirrhosis, each prognostic model represents a marked decline of C-index, net reclassification index (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) in predicting either 28-day or 90-day prognosis of patients with cirrhosis. The hazard analysis identified largely overlapping risk factors of poor outcomes in both subgroups, while serum bilirubin was specifically associated with short-term mortality in patients with cirrhosis and blood urea nitrogen in patients without cirrhosis. A subgroup analysis in patients with cirrhosis showed a decline of discrimination of CPMS in those with ascites or infections compared to that in those without.

Conclusion

Predicting the short-term outcome of HBV-ACLF by CPMs is optimal in patients without cirrhosis but limited in those with cirrhosis, at least partially due to the complicated ascites or infections.

MELD score < 18 rule out 28-day ACLF development among inpatients with hepatitis B-related previous compensated liver disease

The acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) development is highly dynamic. Currently, no satisfactory algorithm identifies patients with HBV at risk of this complication. The aim of the study was to characterize ACLF development in hospitalized HBV-related patients without previous decompensation and to test the performance of traditional prognostic models in ruling out ACLF development within 28 days on admission we conducted a cohort study. Two multi-center cohorts with hospitalized HBV-related previous compensated patients were analyzed. Performances of MELD, MELD-Na, CLIF-C AD, and CLIF-C ACLF-D in ruling out ACLF development within 28 days were compared and further validated by ROC analyses. In the derivation cohort (n = 892), there were 102 patients developed ACLF within 28 days, with profound systemic inflammatory levels and higher 28-day mortality rate (31.4% vs. 1.0%) than those without ACLF development. The MELD score (cut-off = 18) achieved acceptable missing rate (missed/total ACLF development) at 2.9%. In the validation cohort (n = 1656), the MELD score (<18) was able to rule out ACLF development within 28 days with missing rate at 3.0%. ACLF development within 28 days were both lower than 1% (0.6%, derivation cohort; 0.5%, validation cohort) in patients with MELD < 18. While in patients with MELD ≥ 18, 26.6% (99/372, derivation cohort) and 17.8% (130/732, validation cohort) developed into ACLF within 28 days, respectively. While MELD-Na score cut-off at 20 and CLIF-AD score cut-off at 42 did not have consistent performance in our two cohorts. MELD < 18 was able to safely rule out patients with ACLF development within 28 days in HBV-related patients without previous decompensation, which had a high 28-day mortality.

The neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio represents a systemic inflammation marker and reflects the relationship with 90-day mortality in non-cirrhotic chronic severe hepatitis

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the relationship between systemic inflammatory response and short-term mortality in patients with non-cirrhotic chronic severe hepatitis (CSH) by using several indicators of inflammation including neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), neutrophil (NEU), white blood cell (WBC), platelet-to lymphocyte ratio (PLR), and monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio (MLR).

METHODS

Data were collected from two prospectively enrolled CATCH-LIFE noncirrhotic cohorts. Cox regression analysis was used to investigate the association between systemic inflammatory biomarkers and 90-day liver transplant (LT)-free mortality. A generalized additive model (GAM) was used to illustrate the quantitative curve relationship between NLR and 90-day LT-free mortality. Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate the 90-year LT-free survival.

RESULTS

The prevalence of CSH was 20.5% (226/1103). The 28-day and 90-day LT-free mortality rates were 17.7% and 26.1%, respectively, for patients with non-cirrhotic CSH. Patients with no infection accounted for 75.0% of all CSH patients, and NLR was independently associated with 90-day LT-free mortality. NLR of 2.9 might be related to disease deterioration in CSH patients without infection.

CONCLUSIONS

NLR may be an independent risk factor for 90-day LT-free mortality in patients with non-cirrhotic chronic liver disease. A NLR of 2.9 as the cut-off value can be used to predict disease aggravation in CSH patients without infection.

Prevalence and clinical characteristics of autoimmune liver disease in hospitalized patients with cirrhosis and acute decompensation in China

BACKGROUND

Autoimmune liver disease (AILD) has been considered a relatively uncommon disease in China, epidemiological data for AILD in patients with cirrhosis and acute decompensation (AD) is sparse.

AIM

To investigate the prevalence, outcome and risk factors for AILD in cirrhotic patients complicated with AD in China.

METHODS

We collected data from patients with cirrhosis and AD from two prospective, multicenter cohorts in hepatitis B virus endemic areas. Patients were regularly followed up at the end of 28-d, 90-d and 365-d, or until death or liver transplantation (LT). The primary outcome in this study was 90-d LT-free mortality. Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) was assessed on admission and during 28-d hospitalization, according to the diagnostic criteria of the European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL). Risk factors for death were analyzed with logistic regression model.

RESULTS

In patients with cirrhosis and AD, the overall prevalence of AILD was 9.3% (242/2597). Prevalence of ACLF was significantly lower in AILD cases (14%) than those with all etiology groups with cirrhosis and AD (22.8%) (P < 0.001). Among 242 enrolled AILD patients, the prevalence rates of primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC), autoimmune hepatitis (AIH) and PBC-AIH overlap syndrome (PBC/AIH) were 50.8%, 28.5% and 12.0%, respectively. In ACLF patients, the proportions of PBC, AIH and PBC/AIH were 41.2%, 29.4% and 20.6%. 28-d and 90-d mortality were 43.8% and 80.0% in AILD-related ACLF. The etiology of AILD had no significant impact on 28-d, 90-d or 365-d LT-free mortality in patients with cirrhosis and AD in both univariate and multivariate analysis. Total bilirubin (TB), hepatic encephalopathy (HE) and blood urea nitrogen (BUN) were independent risk factors for 90-d LT-free mortality in multivariate analysis. The development of ACLF during hospitalization only independently correlated to TB and international normalized ratio.

CONCLUSION

AILD was not rare in hospitalized patients with cirrhosis and AD in China, among which PBC was the most common etiology. 90-d LT-free mortality were independently associated with TB, HE and BUN.

Hepatitis B Virus Reactivation Increased the Risk of Developing Hepatic Failure and Mortality in Cirrhosis With Acute Exacerbation

Background and Aims

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) reactivation is a serious condition and has been extensively described in chemotherapeutic immunosuppressive population. However, little is known about HBV reactivation in immunocompetent patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB). In this study, we evaluated the prevalence and the clinical significance of HBV reactivation in CHB patients with acute exacerbations.

Method

Patients were screened from two prospective multicenter observational cohorts (CATCH-LIFE cohort). A total of 1,020 CHB patients with previous antiviral treatment history were included to assess the prevalence, risk factors, clinical characteristics of HBV reactivation, and its influence on the progression of chronic liver disease.

Results

The prevalence of HBV reactivation was 51.9% in CHB patients with acute exacerbations who had antiviral treatment history in our study. Among the 529 patients with HBV reactivation, 70.9% of them were triggered by discontinued antiviral treatment and 5.9% by nucleos(t)ide analogs (NUCs) resistance. The prevalence of antiviral treatment disruption and NUCs resistance in patients with HBV reactivation is much higher than that in the patients without (70.9% vs. 0.2%, and 5.9% vs. 0, respectively, both p &lt; 0.001). Stratified and interaction analysis showed that HBV reactivation was correlated with high short-term mortality in cirrhosis subgroup (HR = 2.1, p &lt; 0.001). Cirrhotic patients with HBV reactivation had a significantly higher proportion of developing hepatic failure (45.0% vs. 20.3%, p &lt; 0.001), acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF; 31.4% vs. 21.8%, p = 0.005), and short-term death (14.0% vs. 5.9% for 28-day, and 23.3% vs. 12.4% for 90-day, both p &lt; 0.001) than those without. HBV reactivation is an independent risk factor of 90-day mortality for cirrhosis patients (OR = 1.70, p = 0.005), as well as hepatic encephalopathy, ascites, and bacterial infection.

Conclusion

This study clearly demonstrated that there was a high prevalence of HBV reactivation in CHB patients, which was mainly triggered by discontinued antiviral treatment. The HBV reactivation strongly increased the risk of developing hepatic failure, ACLF and short-term death in HBV-related cirrhotic patients, which may suggest that HBV reactivation would be a new challenge in achieving the WHO target of 65% reduction in mortality from hepatitis B by 2030.

Role of precipitants on transition of acute decompensation to acute-on-chronic liver failure in patients with HBV-related cirrhosis

Background & Aims

Pre-acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a distinct intermediate stage between acute decompensation (AD) and ACLF. However, identifying patients with pre-ACLF and predicting progression from AD to ACLF is difficult. This study aimed to identify pre-ACLF within 28 days, and to develop and validate a prediction model for ACLF in patients with HBV-related decompensated cirrhosis.

Methods

In total, 1,736 patients with HBV-related cirrhosis and AD were enrolled from 2 large-scale, multicenter, prospective cohorts. ACLF occurrence within 28 days, readmission, and 3-month and 1-year outcomes were collected.

Results

Among 970 patients with AD without ACLF in the derivation cohort, the 94 (9.6%) patients with pre-ACLF had the highest 3-month and 1-year LT-free mortality (61.6% and 70.9%, respectively), which was comparable to those with ACLF at enrollment (57.1% and 67.1%); the 251 (25.9%) patients with unstable decompensated cirrhosis had mortality rates of 22.4% and 32.1%, respectively; while the 507 (57.9%) patients with stable decompensated cirrhosis had the best outcomes (1-year mortality rate of 2.6%). Through Cox proportional hazard regression, specific precipitants, including hepatitis B flare with HBV reactivation, spontaneous hepatitis B flare with high viral load, superimposed infection on HBV, and bacterial infection, were identified to be significantly associated with ACLF occurrence in the derivation cohort. A model that incorporated precipitants, indicators of systemic inflammation and organ injuries reached a high C-index of 0.90 and 0.86 in derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. The optimal cut-off value (0.22) differentiated high-risk and low-risk patients, with a negative predictive value of 0.95.

Conclusions

Three distinct clinical courses of patients with AD are validated in the HBV-etiology population. The precipitants significantly impact on AD-ACLF transition. A model developed by the precipitant–systemic inflammation–organ injury framework could be a useful tool for predicting ACLF occurrence.

Clinical trial number

NCT02457637 and NCT03641872.

Lay summary

It was previously shown that patients with decompensated cirrhosis could be stratified into 3 groups based on their short-term clinical prognoses. Herein, we showed that this stratification applies to patients who develop cirrhosis as a result of hepatitis B virus infection. We also developed a precipitant-based model (i.e. a model that incorporated information about the exact cause of decompensation) that could predict the likelihood of these patients developing a very severe liver disease called acute-on-chronic liver failure (or ACLF).

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Three distinct clinical trajectories were validated in patients with HBV-related cirrhosis.

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Specific precipitants were associated with an increased risk of developing ACLF.

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Models incorporating precipitants performed better for the prediction of ACLF development.

Definition and classification of acute-on-chronic liver diseases

Patients with chronic liver diseases (CLDs) develop acute liver injury and/or acute decompensation under the attack of various precipitants and present with significantly elevated alanine aminotransferase and/or total bilirubin levels, liver failure, or acute decompensation of liver cirrhosis, which is called acute-on-CLD (AoCLD). AoCLD accounts for the majority of patients hospitalized in the Department of Hepatology or Infectious Diseases. AoCLD is complicated by various clinical types, the severity of the disease, and may pose a high risk of death. To date, the definition of AoCLD is still vague, and a consensus concept of the clinical classification is lacking. This review aimed to define the concept and clinical types of AoCLD based on related studies and the literature.

Prevalence and clinical significance of serum sodium variability in patients with acute-on-chronic liver diseases: a prospective multicenter study in China

Background

No reports exist regarding the prevalence of different Na levels and their relationship with 90-day prognosis in hospitalized patients with acute-on-chronic liver disease (AoCLD) in China. Therefore, the benefit of hyponatremia correction in AoCLD patients remains unclear.

Methods

We prospectively collected the data of 3970 patients with AoCLD from the CATCH-LIFE cohort in China. The prevalence of different Na levels (≤ 120; 120–135; 135–145; > 145) and their relationship with 90-day prognosis were analyzed. For hyponatremic patients, we measured Na levels on days 4 and 7 and compared their characteristics, based on whether hyponatremia was corrected.

Results

A total of 3880 patients were involved; 712 of those developed adverse outcomes within 90 days. There were 80 (2.06%) hypernatremic, 28 (0.72%) severe hyponatremic, and 813 (20.95%) mild hyponatremic patients at admission. After adjusting for all confounding factors, the risk of 90-day adverse outcomes decreased by 5% (odds ratio [OR] 0.95; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.93–0.97; p < 0.001), 24% (OR 0.76; 95% CI 0.70–0.84; p < 0.001), and 42% (OR 0.58; 95% CI 0.49–0.70; p < 0.001) as Na level increased by 1, 5, and 10 mmol/L, respectively. Noncorrection of hyponatremia on days 4 and 7 was associated with 2.05-fold (hazard ratio [HR], 2.05; 95% CI, 1.50–2.79; p < 0.001) and 1.46-fold (HR 1.46; 95% CI 1.05–2.02; p = 0.028) higher risk of adverse outcomes.

Conclusions

Hyponatremia was an independent risk factor for a poor 90-day prognosis in patients with AoCLD. Failure to correct hyponatremia in a week after admission was often associated with increased mortality. (ClinicalTrials.gov number: NCT02457637, NCT03641872).

Clinical Trial Numbers

This study is registered at Shanghai www.clinicaltrials.org (NCT02457637 and NCT03641872).

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12072-021-10282-8.

Increased INR Values Predict Accelerating Deterioration and High Short-Term Mortality Among Patients Hospitalized With Cirrhosis or Advanced Fibrosis

Background and Objective: An increase in the international normalized ratio (INR) is associated with increased mortality in patients with cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases, while little is known about the quantitative relationship. This study aimed to investigate the quantitative relationship between the INR and short-term prognosis among patients hospitalized with cirrhosis or advanced fibrosis and to evaluate the role of the INR as a risk factor for short-term liver transplant (LT)-free mortality in these patients.

Patients and Methods: This study prospectively analyzed multicenter cohorts established by the Chinese Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure (CATCH-LIFE) study. Cox regression was used to describe the relationship between the INR and independent risk factors for short-term LT-free mortality. Forest plots were used in the subgroup analysis. Generalized additive models (GAMs) and splines were used to illustrate the quantitative curve relationship between the INR and the outcome and inflection point on the curve.

Results: A total of 2,567 patients with cirrhosis and 924 patients with advanced fibrosis were included in the study. The 90-day LT-free mortality of patients with cirrhosis and advanced fibrosis was 16.7% (428/2,567) and 7.5% (69/924), respectively. In the multivariable Cox regression analysis, the increase in the INR was independently associated with the risk of 90-day LT-free mortality both in patients with cirrhosis (HR, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.04–1.07, p < 0.001) and in patients with advanced fibrosis (HR, 1.09; 95% CI, 1.06–1.12, p < 0.001). An INR of 1.6/1.7 was found to be the starting point of coagulation dysfunction with a rapid increase in mortality in patients with cirrhosis or in patients with advanced fibrosis, respectively. A 28-day LT-free mortality of 15% was associated with an INR value of 2.1 in both cirrhosis and advanced fibrosis patients.

Conclusions: This study was the first to quantitatively describe the relationship between the INR and short-term LT-free mortality in patients with cirrhosis or advanced fibrosis. The starting points of INR indicating the rapid increase in mortality and the unified cutoff value of coagulation failure in cirrhosis and advanced fibrosis, will help clinicians accurately recognize early disease deterioration.

Plasma Exchange-Based Non-bioartificial Liver Support System Improves the Short-Term Outcomes of Patients With Hepatitis B Virus-Associated Acute-on-Chronic Liver Failure: A Multicenter Prospective Cohort Study

Background and aims: Hepatitis B virus-associated acute-on-chronic liver failure (HBV-ACLF) is a complicated syndrome with extremely high short-term mortality. Whether plasma exchange (PE) improves HBV-ACLF outcomes remains controversial. Here, PE-based non-bioartificial liver support system (NB-ALSS) effects on short-term HBV-ACLF patient outcomes were investigated. Materials and methods: HBV-ACLF patients from Chinese Acute-on-chronic Liver Failure (CATCH-LIFE) cohort receiving standard medical therapy (SMT) alone or PE-based NB-ALSS in addition to SMT were allocated to SMT and SMT+PE groups, respectively; propensity score matching (PSM) was used to eliminate confounding bias. Short-term (28/90-day and 1-year) survival rates were calculated (Kaplan-Meier). Results: In total, 524 patients with HBV-ACLF were enrolled in this study; 358 received SMT alone (SMT group), and the remaining 166 received PE-based NB-ALSS in addition to SMT (SMT+PE group). PSM generated 166 pairs of cases. In the SMT+PE group, 28-day, 90-day, and 1-year survival rates were 11.90, 8.00, and 10.90%, respectively, higher than those in the SMT group. Subgroup analysis revealed that PE-based NB-ALSS had the best efficacy in patients with ACLF grade 2 or MELD scores of 30-40 (MELD grade 3). In MELD grade 3 patients who received SMT+PE, 28-day, 90-day, and 1-year survival rates were improved by 18.60, 14.20, and 20.10%, respectively. According to multivariate Cox regression analysis, PE-based NB-ALSS was the only independent protective factor for HBV-ACLF patient prognosis at 28 days, 90 days, and 1 year (28 days, HR = 0.516, p = 0.001; 90 days, HR = 0.663, p = 0.010; 1 year, HR = 0.610, p = 0.051). For those who received SMT+PE therapy, PE-based NB-ALSS therapy frequency was the only independent protective factor for short-term prognosis (28-day, HR = 0.597, p = 0.001; 90-day, HR = 0.772, p = 0.018). Conclusions: This multicenter prospective study showed that the addition of PE-based NB-ALSS to SMT improves short-term (28/90 days and 1-year) outcomes in patients with HBV-ACLF, especially in MELD grade 3 patients. Optimization of PE-based NB-ALSS may improve prognosis or even save lives among HBV-ACLF patients.

Baseline Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio Is Independently Associated With 90-Day Transplant-Free Mortality in Patients With Cirrhosis

Background: Patients with cirrhosis have an increased risk of short-term mortality, however, few studies quantify the association between neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and 90-day transplant-free mortality in cirrhotic patients.

Methods: We prospectively analyzed 3,970 patients with chronic liver diseases from two multicenter cohorts in China (January 2015 to December 2016 and July 2018 to January 2019). Restricted cubic splines (RCS) were used to analyze the relation of NLR and all-causes 90-day transplant-free mortality in cirrhosis.

Results: A total of 2,583 cirrhotic patients were enrolled in our study. Restricted cubic splines showed that the odds ratio (OR) of all causes 90-day transplant-free mortality started to increase rapidly until around NLR 6.5, and then was relatively flat (p for non-linearity <0.001). The risk of 90-day transplant-free mortality in cirrhotic patients with NLR < 6.5 increased with an increment of 23% for every unit increase in NLR (p < 0.001). The patients with NLR < 4.5 had the highest risk (OR: 2.34, 95% CI 1.66–3.28). In multivariable-adjusted stratified analyses, the increase in the incidence of 90-day transplant-free mortality with NLR increasing was consistent (OR >1.0) across all major prespecified subgroups, including infection group (OR: 1.04, 95% CI 1.00–1.09) and non-infection (OR: 1.06, 95% CI 1.02–1.11) group. The trends for NLR and numbers of patients with organ failure varied synchronously and were significantly increased with time from day 7 to day 28.

Conclusions: We found a non-linear association between baseline NLR and the adjusted probability of 90-day transplant-free mortality. A certain range of NLR is closely associated with poor short-term prognosis in patients with cirrhosis.

Impact of Hepatic Encephalopathy on Clinical Characteristics and Adverse Outcomes in Prospective and Multicenter Cohorts of Patients With Acute-on-Chronic Liver Diseases

Importance: Hepatic encephalopathy is a severe complication, and its contribution to clinical adverse outcomes in patients with acute-on-chronic liver diseases from the East is unclear.

Objective: We aimed to investigate the impact of hepatic encephalopathy on clinical characteristics and adverse outcomes in prospective and multicenter cohorts of patients with acute-on-chronic liver diseases.

Design: We conducted a cohort study of two multicenter prospective cohorts.

Setting: China.

Participants: Acute-on-chronic liver disease patients with various etiologies.

Exposure: The diagnosis and severity of hepatic encephalopathy were assessed using the West Haven scale.

Main Outcome Measure: The correlation between clinical adverse outcomes and varying hepatic encephalopathy grades was analyzed in the target patients.

Results: A total of 3,949 patients were included, and 340 of them had hepatic encephalopathy. The incidence of hepatic encephalopathy was higher in patients with alcohol consumption (9.90%) than in those with hepatitis B virus infection (6.17%). The incidence of 28- and 90-day adverse outcomes increased progressively from hepatic encephalopathy grades 1–4. Logistic regression analysis revealed that hepatic encephalopathy grades 3 and 4 were independent risk factors for the 28- and 90-day adverse outcome in the fully adjusted model IV. Stratified analyses showed similar results in the different subgroups. Compared to grades 1–2 and patients without hepatic encephalopathy, those with grade 3 hepatic encephalopathy had a significant increase in clinical adverse outcomes, independent of other organ failures.

Conclusions and Relevance: Hepatic encephalopathy grades 3–4 were independent risk factors for 28- and 90-day adverse outcomes. Hepatic encephalopathy grade 3 could be used as an indicator of brain failure in patients with acute-on-chronic liver disease.

Different Effects of Total Bilirubin on 90-Day Mortality in Hospitalized Patients With Cirrhosis and Advanced Fibrosis: A Quantitative Analysis

Introduction: Total bilirubin (TB) is a major prognosis predictor representing liver failure in patients with acute on chronic liver failure (ACLF). However, the cutoff value of TB for liver failure and whether the same cutoff could be applied in both cirrhotic and non-cirrhotic patients remain controversial. There is a need to obtain the quantitative correlation between TB and short-term mortality via evidence-based methods, which is critical in establishing solid ACLF diagnostic criteria.

Methods: Patients hospitalized with cirrhosis or advanced fibrosis (FIB-4 > 1.45) were studied. TB and other variables were measured at baseline. The primary outcome was 90-day transplantation-free mortality. Multi-variable Cox proportional hazard model was used to present the independent risk of mortality due to TB. Generalized additive model and second derivate (acceleration) were used to plot the “TB-mortality correlation curves.” The mathematical (maximum acceleration) and clinical (adjusted 28-day transplantation-free mortality rate reaching 15%) TB cutoffs for liver failure were both calculated.

Results: Among the 3,532 included patients, the number of patients with cirrhosis and advanced fibrosis were 2,592 and 940, respectively, of which cumulative 90-day mortality were 16.6% (430/2592) and 7.4% (70/940), respectively. Any increase of TB was found the independent risk factor of mortality in cirrhotic patients, while only TB >12 mg/dL independently increased the risk of mortality in patients with advanced fibrosis. In cirrhotic patients, the mathematical TB cutoff for liver failure is 14.2 mg/dL, with 23.3% (605/2592) patients exceeding it, corresponding to 13.3 and 25.0% adjusted 28- and 90-day mortality rate, respectively. The clinical TB cutoff for is 18.1 mg/dL, with 18.2% (471/2592) patients exceeding it. In patients with advanced fibrosis, the mathematical TB cutoff is 12.1 mg/dL, 33.1% (311/940) patients exceeding it, corresponding to 2.9 and 8.0% adjusted 28- and 90-day mortality rate, respectively; the clinical TB cutoff was 36.0 mg/dL, 1.3% (12/940) patients above it.

Conclusion: This study clearly demonstrated the significantly different impact of TB on 90-day mortality in patients with cirrhosis and advanced fibrosis, proving that liver failure can be determined by TB alone in cirrhosis but not in advanced fibrosis. The proposed TB cutoffs for liver failure provides solid support for the establishment of ACLF diagnostic criteria.