Swedish nationwide time series analysis of influenza and suicide deaths from 1910 to 1978

Recovering from the first shock? Changes in suicidality during the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic in a country with traditionally high levels of completed suicides

BACKGROUND

Hungary was among the few countries where suicidality increased in the first year of the COVID pandemic. In this study, we sought to investigate whether that elevated suicide mortality had changed by 2021, when the number of fatalities due to COVID-19 was much higher than in 2020.

METHODS

We used an interrupted time-series analysis with (quasi-) Poisson regression, controlling for linear trend and seasonal effects, to estimate the effect of the pandemic on the suicide rates of various subpopulations. For both pandemic years the changes in risk of suicide were compared to the period between 2015 and 2019.

RESULTS

Although the pandemic had a significant adverse effect on suicidality in 2020 in the Hungarian total population and in males, by 2021 this effect had vanished. In the total population, those aged 25 years and older had elevated suicidality in 2020 but neither age group in the total population had elevated suicidality in 2021. In the total population, increased risks of suicide death could be observed among residents of the capital city (in 2020 and 2021), villages (in 2020), and - in terms of regions - "Central Hungary" (in 2020 and 2021). Only the risk of violent suicides was significantly higher for both the total and male populations (and only in 2020).

LIMITATIONS

We used non-individual level data.

CONCLUSIONS

The increased suicidality in 2020 had abated by 2021. In the paper, we discuss the possible explanations for our findings.

What can we learn from historical pandemics? A systematic review of the literature

What are the insights from historical pandemics for policymaking today? We carry out a systematic review of the literature on the impact of pandemics that occurred since the Industrial Revolution and prior to Covid-19. Our literature searches were conducted between June 2020 and September 2023, with the final review encompassing 169 research papers selected for their relevance to understanding either the demographic or economic impact of pandemics. We include literature from across disciplines to maximise our knowledge base, finding many relevant articles in journals which would not normally be on the radar of social scientists. Our review identifies two gaps in the literature: (1) the need to study pandemics and their effects more collectively rather than looking at them in isolation; and (2) the need for more study of pandemics besides 1918 Spanish Influenza, especially milder pandemic episodes. These gaps are a consequence of academics working in silos, failing to draw on the skills and knowledge offered by other disciplines. Synthesising existing knowledge on pandemics in one place provides a basis upon which to identify the lessons in preparing for future catastrophic disease events.

The increase in suicide risk in older adults in Taiwan during the COVID-19 outbreak

BACKGROUND

Studies from Western countries indicated that older adults were more resilient than younger ones to deteriorating mental health during the COVID-19 pandemic. As high late-life suicide rates have been reported in East Asia, it is possible that the pandemic impact might differ between East and West. We investigated the pandemic impact on age-specific suicide patterns in Taiwan.

METHODS

Interrupted time-series analysis was used to model the overall, and age-stratified, monthly suicide rates before (January 1st, 2017 to December 31st, 2019) and after (January 1st 2020 to December 31st 2021) the COVID-19 outbreak. Associations between confirmed COVID-19 deaths and suicide rates were also assessed.

RESULTS

There was a significant decrease in overall suicide rates after the COVID-19 outbreak (p < 0.01) (annual average rates per 100,000 population of 16.4 prior, 15.2 after). The overall decrease was driven by fewer suicide deaths in the young- and older-middle-aged groups (25-44 and 45-64 years). However suicide rates in younger-age group (<25 years) were already increasing pre-pandemic, a trend which continued after the outbreak. Suicide rates for older people (≥65 years) also increased along with the increasing number of COVID-19 deaths during the pandemic period.

LIMITATIONS

Under-reporting and/or misclassification of suicides were possible.

CONCLUSIONS

The overall suicide rates in Taiwan did not change after the COVID-19 outbreak; however, suicide in older adults increased. Public health measures to reduce COVID-19 infections may have unintended and adverse consequences on the psychological wellbeing of older citizens.

Suicide numbers during the first 9-15 months of the COVID-19 pandemic compared with pre-existing trends: An interrupted time series analysis in 33 countries

BACKGROUND

Predicted increases in suicide were not generally observed in the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the picture may be changing and patterns might vary across demographic groups. We aimed to provide a timely, granular picture of the pandemic's impact on suicides globally.

METHODS

We identified suicide data from official public-sector sources for countries/areas-within-countries, searching websites and academic literature and contacting data custodians and authors as necessary. We sent our first data request on 22nd June 2021 and stopped collecting data on 31st October 2021. We used interrupted time series (ITS) analyses to model the association between the pandemic's emergence and total suicides and suicides by sex-, age- and sex-by-age in each country/area-within-country. We compared the observed and expected numbers of suicides in the pandemic's first nine and first 10-15 months and used meta-regression to explore sources of variation.

FINDINGS

We sourced data from 33 countries (24 high-income, six upper-middle-income, three lower-middle-income; 25 with whole-country data, 12 with data for area(s)-within-the-country, four with both). There was no evidence of greater-than-expected numbers of suicides in the majority of countries/areas-within-countries in any analysis; more commonly, there was evidence of lower-than-expected numbers. Certain sex, age and sex-by-age groups stood out as potentially concerning, but these were not consistent across countries/areas-within-countries. In the meta-regression, different patterns were not explained by countries' COVID-19 mortality rate, stringency of public health response, economic support level, or presence of a national suicide prevention strategy. Nor were they explained by countries' income level, although the meta-regression only included data from high-income and upper-middle-income countries, and there were suggestions from the ITS analyses that lower-middle-income countries fared less well.

INTERPRETATION

Although there are some countries/areas-within-countries where overall suicide numbers and numbers for certain sex- and age-based groups are greater-than-expected, these countries/areas-within-countries are in the minority. Any upward movement in suicide numbers in any place or group is concerning, and we need to remain alert to and respond to changes as the pandemic and its mental health and economic consequences continue.

FUNDING

None.

Social distancing and influenza mortality in 1918 did not increase suicide rates in the United States

Recent research has suggested that the social distancing mandates introduced in the United States during the main waves of the 1918-20 influenza pandemic caused an increase in suicide rates. However, that finding relies on poor-quality, temporally mismatched data and has signs of omitted variable bias. Similarly, a long-standing finding that American suicide rates in 1918-20 were also boosted by the influenza mortality of the time has gone unquestioned in the literature, despite the original research admitting its risk of ecological fallacy. Using higher-powered mortality data, I cast doubt on both findings by analyzing the experiences of the pandemic in 43 of the largest American cities of the time. In line with some populations' experiences of COVID-19, I report tentative evidence that social distancing mandates during the 1918-20 pandemic may have been associated with decreased suicide rates. Larger, cross-national investigations of the effects of historical pandemics and social distancing mandates on mental health and suicide are needed.