Risk factors for hospitalisation and death from COVID-19: a prospective cohort study in South Sudan and Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo

COVID-19 epidemiology, health services utilisation and health care seeking behaviour during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in Mweso health zone, Democratic Republic of Congo

Background

Although the evidence about coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has increased exponentially since the beginning of the pandemic, less is known about the direct and indirect effects of the pandemic in humanitarian settings. In the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), most studies occurred in Kinshasa and other cities. Limited research was conducted in remote conflict-affected settings. We investigated the COVID-19 epidemiology, health service utilisation, and health care-seeking behaviour during the first year of the pandemic (March 2020-March 2021) in the Mweso health zone, North Kivu, DRC.

Methods

This mixed-methods study includes a descriptive epidemiological analysis of reported COVID-19 cases data extracted from the provincial line list, interrupted time series analysis of health service utilisation using routine health service data, qualitative perceptions of health care workers about how health services were affected, and community members' health care seeking behaviour from a representative household survey and focus group discussions.

Results

The COVID-19 epidemiology in North Kivu aligns with evidence reported globally, yet case fatality rates were high due to underreporting. Testing capacity was limited and initially mainly available in the province's capital. Health service utilisation showed different patterns - child measles vaccinations experienced a decrease at the beginning of the pandemic, while outpatient consultations, malaria, and pneumonia showed an increase over time. Such increases might have been driven by insecurity and population displacements rather than COVID-19. Community members continued seeking care during the first months of the COVID-19 pandemic and visited the same health facilities as before COVID-19. Financial constraints, not COVID-19, were the main barrier reported to accessing health care.

Conclusions

The first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Mweso health zone was characterised by low testing capacity and an underestimation of reported COVID-19 infections. The increase in health care utilisation should be further explored to understand the role of factors unrelated to COVID-19, such as insecurity, population displacement, and poverty, which remain major challenges to successfully providing health services and improving the population's health. Measles vaccination coverage dropped, which exacerbated the ongoing measles outbreak. Improved decentralised testing capacity will be crucial for future epidemics and enhanced efforts to maintain child vaccination coverage.

Risk Factors for Mortality of Hospitalized Adult Patients with COVID-19 Pneumonia: A Two-Year Cohort Study in a Private Tertiary Care Center in Mexico

During the COVID-19 pandemic, the high prevalence of comorbidities and the disparities between the public and private health subsystems in Mexico substantially contributed to the severe impact of the disease. The objective of this study was to evaluate and compare the risk factors at admission for in-hospital mortality of patients with COVID-19. A 2-year retrospective cohort study of hospitalized adult patients with COVID-19 pneumonia was conducted at a private tertiary care center. The study population consisted of 1258 patients with a median age of 56 ± 16.5 years, of whom 1093 recovered (86.8%) and 165 died (13.1%). In the univariate analysis, older age (p < 0.001), comorbidities such as hypertension (p < 0.001) and diabetes (p < 0.001), signs and symptoms of respiratory distress, and markers of acute inflammatory response were significantly more frequent in non-survivors. The multivariate analysis showed that older age (p < 0.001), the presence of cyanosis (p = 0.005), and previous myocardial infarction (p = 0.032) were independent predictors of mortality. In the studied cohort, the risk factors present at admission associated with increased mortality were older age, cyanosis, and a previous myocardial infarction, which can be used as valuable predictors for patients' outcomes. To our knowledge, this is the first study analyzing predictors of mortality in COVID-19 patients attended in a private tertiary hospital in Mexico.

Willingness to Pay (WTP) for COVID-19 Vaccine Booster Dose and Its Determinants in Indonesia

Willingness to pay (WTP) for booster doses of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines is an under studied research topic. Therefore, the current study aimed to investigate the WTP for the booster doses of COVID-19 vaccines and its predictors in Indonesia using an online survey distributed all over the provinces of this low-middle-income country. The WTP was evaluated using a basic dichotomous contingent valuation approach, and its associated determinants were evaluated using a linear regression model. Out of 2935 responders, 66.2% (1942/2935) were willing to pay for a booster dose of the COVID-19 vaccine. The majority of respondents (63.5%) were willing to pay within a price range of 100,000-500,000 Indonesian rupiah (IDR), i.e., USD 6.71-33.57. Being older than 40 years, having a higher educational level, having a higher income, knowing and understanding that booster doses were important, and having a vaccine status that is certified halal (permissible in Islamic law), were all associated with a higher WTP for the booster dose of COVID-19 vaccines. The study findings imply that the WTP for a booster dose of COVID-19 vaccination in Indonesia is lower compared to acceptance of vaccines provided free of charge. This WTP data can be utilized to develop a pricing scheme for the booster doses of COVID-19 vaccination in the country with potential benefits in other low-income countries. The government may be required to provide subsidies for the herd immunity vaccination process to proceed as anticipated. Furthermore, the public community must be educated on the importance of vaccination as well as the fact that the COVID-19 epidemic is far from being over.

Operational challenges and considerations for COVID-19 research in humanitarian settings: A qualitative study of a project in Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo and South Sudan

Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, much research has been conducted globally, but relatively few studies have been carried out in complex emergency settings that pose numerous operational challenges. We conducted a qualitative study to explore the barriers and enablers of a COVID-19 cohort study conducted in South Sudan and Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo, to inform future research on COVID-19 and infectious diseases in humanitarian settings. We used a case study design embedded within the original prospective cohort study. Qualitative data was collected through four health facility assessments, 28 key informant interviews, and a focus group discussion. Data were analyzed using a manual thematic analysis approach and summarized against four primary themes: testing challenges and enablers, perceptions and attitudes towards COVID-19, national health system considerations, and study management considerations. Findings suggest most of the challenges affecting the cohort study were not specific to COVID-19 research but have been a feature of previous infectious disease research carried out in complex emergencies. However, the pandemic has exacerbated certain problems. The high proportion of travellers enrolled due to testing mandates, stigmatization of infected individuals linked to the heavy global focus on COVID-19, strained resources during waves of increasing infections, and remote management requirements all negatively impacted the cohort study. Factors that facilitated the research included proactive management, data quality oversight procedures, and strong collaboration with national health stakeholders. The global impact of COVID-19, its high public profile, and specific pandemic policies pose further operational challenges for research in already complex humanitarian settings. Future studies could plan mitigation measures that include flexibility in staffing and budgets, strategies to expand testing, and early partnerships with local organizations and health authorities.

Risk factors for hospitalisation and death from COVID-19: a prospective cohort study in South Sudan and Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo

OBJECTIVES

Our study described demographic characteristics, exposures and symptoms, and comorbidities to evaluate risk factors of hospitalisation and mortality among cases in Juba, South Sudan (SSD) and North and South Kivu in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).

DESIGN

Prospective observational cohort of COVID-19 cases.

METHODS

Individuals presenting for care at one of five study facilities in SSD (n=1) or DRC (n=4) or referred from home-based care by mobile medical teams between December 2020 and June 2021 were eligible for enrolment. Demographic characteristics, COVID-19 exposures, symptoms at presentation, as well as acute and chronic comorbidities, were evaluated using a standard questionnaire at enrolment. Disease progression was characterised by location of care using mixed-effects regression models.

RESULTS

751 individuals were eligible for enrolment. Among cases followed to discharge or death (n=519), 375 were enrolled outpatients (75.7%). A similar number of cases were enrolled in DRC (n=262) and SSD (n=257). Overall mortality was 4.8% (95% CI: 3.2% to 6.9%); there were no outpatient deaths. Patients presenting with any symptoms had higher odds of hospitalisation (adjusted OR (AOR) 2.78, 95% CI 1.47 to 5.27) and all deaths occurred among symptomatic individuals. Odds of both hospitalisation and mortality were greatest among cases with respiratory symptoms; presence of low oxygen levels on enrolment was strongly associated with both hospitalisation (AOR 7.77, 95% CI 4.22 to 14.29) and mortality (AOR 25.29, 95% CI 6.42 to 99.54). Presence of more than one chronic comorbidity was associated with 4.96 (95% CI 1.51 to 16.31) times greater odds of death; neither infectious comorbidities evaluated, nor malnutrition, were significantly associated with increased mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Consistent with prior literature, older age, low oxygen level, other respiratory symptoms and chronic comorbidities were all risk factors for mortality. Patients presenting with these characteristics were more likely to be hospitalised, providing evidence of effective triage and referral.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT04568499.