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Bayu Abdi H, Beyen TK, Regesu AH, Worke MD, Wami GA, Husen BA, Damtew BS. COVID-19 related barriers to institutional childbirth during the early phase of the pandemic in rural Arsi zone, Ethiopia, 2022: A qualitative study. Heliyon 2024; 10:e32051. [PMID: 38882262 PMCID: PMC11176848 DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e32051] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/24/2024] [Revised: 05/27/2024] [Accepted: 05/28/2024] [Indexed: 06/18/2024] Open
Abstract
Introduction Global, national, and local studies revealed that the COVID-19 pandemic has significantly reduced institutional childbirth. However, it is not well understood how the COVID-19 epidemic affected institutional childbirth service utilization. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate COVID-19 related impediments to institutional childbirth service uptake during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic (March 20/2020-June 20/2020) in the rural Arsi zone of Ethiopia. Methods A community-based Phenomenological study was conducted from January 10-25/2022, among mothers who gave birth in the Arsi zone during the early phase of the COVID-19 epidemic (March 20/2020-June 20/2020) in Ethiopia. Data was collected by the primary author and a university graduated Midwives with experience in qualitative data collection. Eight focus group discussions and six in-depth interviews were conducted among mothers who gave birth in selected rural areas of the Arsi zone during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic. Nine key informant interviews were also conducted among Midwives, Maternity Ward Heads, and Community Health Extension Workers. Data was transcribed, translated, and analyzed thematically using Atlas Ti.7 version. Results Four major themes and eleven sub-themes emerged regarding the barriers to institutional childbirth during the early phase of COVID-19 pandemic. The COVID-19 related fear was a reason for avoiding institutional childbirth for almost all participants. COVID-19 restrictions such as transportation bans, market bans and public transport price doubling were also critical concerns to seeking institutional childbirth. Perceived Poor quality of institutional childbirth care during the curfew was also an impeding factor. Poor communication, incomplete care components and absenteeism were mentioned under this theme. Unbalanced mass media tragedies and rumors of unknown sources were COVID -19 related infodemics found affecting the practice of institutional childbirth. Conclusions COVID-19 related fears, COVID-19 restrictions, Perceived Poor quality of care during the COVID-19 pandemic and the COVID-19 Infodemic were the main reasons for reduced institutional childbirth service utilization during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ethiopia. Therefore, strategies must be designed proactively to maintain essential maternal health services, particularly institutional childbirth, during pandemics like COVID-19 and similar future epidemics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hinsermu Bayu Abdi
- Department of Midwifery, College of Health Sciences, Arsi University, Asella, Ethiopia
| | - Teresa Kisi Beyen
- Department of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, Arsi University, Asella, Ethiopia
| | | | - Mulugeta Dile Worke
- Department of Midwifery, College of Health Sciences, Debra Tabor University, Debra Tabor, Ethiopia
| | - Girma Alemu Wami
- Department of Public Health, College of Health Sciences, Arsi University, Asella, Ethiopia
| | - Beker Ahmed Husen
- Department of Midwifery, College of Health Sciences, Arsi University, Asella, Ethiopia
| | - Beyene Sisay Damtew
- Department of Midwifery, College of Health Sciences, Arsi University, Asella, Ethiopia
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Ezenwa BN, Fajolu IB, Pius S, Ezeanosike OB, Iloh K, Umoru D, Tongo O, Abdulkadir I, Okolo AA, Nabwera HM, Oleolo-Ayodeji K, Daniel N, Abubakar I, Obu C, Onwe-Ogah E, Daniyan O, Adeke A, Nwegbu O, Bisumang JD, Hassan L, Abdullahi F, Mohammad A, Nasir U, Ezeaka VC, Allen S. Marked variability in institutional deliveries and neonatal outcomes during the COVID-19 lockdown in Nigeria. Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg 2023; 117:780-787. [PMID: 37264932 DOI: 10.1093/trstmh/trad030] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/06/2023] [Revised: 04/05/2023] [Accepted: 05/22/2023] [Indexed: 06/03/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic and the interventions to mitigate its spread impacted access to healthcare, including hospital births and newborn care. This study evaluated the impact of COVID-19 lockdown measures on newborn service utilization in Nigeria. METHODS The records of women who delivered in hospitals and babies admitted to neonatal wards were retrospectively reviewed before (March 2019-February 2020) and during (March 2020-February 2021) the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown in selected facilities in Nigeria. RESULTS There was a nationwide reduction in institutional deliveries during the COVID-19 lockdown period in Nigeria, with 14 444 before and 11 723 during the lockdown-a decrease of 18.8%. The number of preterm admissions decreased during the lockdown period (30.6% during lockdown vs 32.6% pre-lockdown), but the percentage of outborn preterm admissions remained unchanged. Newborn admissions varied between zones with no consistent pattern. Although neonatal jaundice and prematurity remained the most common reasons for admission, severe perinatal asphyxia increased by nearly 50%. Neonatal mortality was significantly higher during the COVID-19 lockdown compared with pre-lockdown (110.6/1000 [11.1%] vs 91.4/1000 [9.1%], respectively; p=0.01). The odds of a newborn dying were about four times higher if delivered outside the facility during the lockdown (p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS The COVID-19 lockdown had markedly deleterious effects on healthcare seeking for deliveries and neonatal care that varied between zones with no consistent pattern.
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Affiliation(s)
- Beatrice N Ezenwa
- Department of Paediatrics, College of Medicine, University of Lagos, Lagos, Nigeria
- Department of Paediatrics, Lagos University Teaching Hospital, Lagos, Nigeria
| | - Iretiola B Fajolu
- Department of Paediatrics, College of Medicine, University of Lagos, Lagos, Nigeria
- Department of Paediatrics, Lagos University Teaching Hospital, Lagos, Nigeria
| | - Simon Pius
- Department of Paediatrics, University of Maiduguri, Maiduguri, Nigeria
| | - Obumneme B Ezeanosike
- Department of Paediatrics, Alex Ekwueme Federal University Teaching Hospital, Abakaliki, Nigeria
| | - Kenechukwu Iloh
- Department of Paediatrics, University of Nigeria Teaching Hospital, Enugu, Nigeria
| | - Dominic Umoru
- Department of Paediatrics, Maitama District Hospital, Abuja, Nigeria
| | - Olukemi Tongo
- Department of Paediatrics, University College Hospital, Ibadan, Nigeria
| | - Isa Abdulkadir
- Department of Paediatrics, College of Medical Sciences, Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria, Nigeria
| | - Angela A Okolo
- Department of Paediatrics, Federal Medical Centre, Asaba, Delta State, Nigeria
| | - Helen M Nabwera
- Department of Clinical Sciences, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, UK
- Centre of Excellence for Women and Child Health, Aga Khan University, Nairobi, Kenya
| | | | - Nelson Daniel
- Department of Paediatrics, Lagos University Teaching Hospital, Lagos, Nigeria
| | - Ismaela Abubakar
- Insilico Unit, Cancer Therapeutic, Institute of Cancer Research, Sutton, UK
| | - Chinwe Obu
- Department of Paediatrics, Alex Ekwueme Federal University Teaching Hospital, Abakaliki, Nigeria
| | - Emeka Onwe-Ogah
- Department of Paediatrics, Alex Ekwueme Federal University Teaching Hospital, Abakaliki, Nigeria
| | - Olapeju Daniyan
- Department of Paediatrics, Alex Ekwueme Federal University Teaching Hospital, Abakaliki, Nigeria
| | - Azuka Adeke
- Department of Community Medicine, Alex Ekwueme Federal University Teaching Hospital, Abakaliki, Nigeria
| | - Obinna Nwegbu
- Department of Paediatrics, Alex Ekwueme Federal University Teaching Hospital, Abakaliki, Nigeria
| | - J D Bisumang
- Department of Paediatrics, University of Maiduguri, Maiduguri, Nigeria
| | - Laila Hassan
- Department of Paediatrics, University College Hospital, Ibadan, Nigeria
| | - Fatimah Abdullahi
- Department of Paediatrics, University College Hospital, Ibadan, Nigeria
| | - Aisha Mohammad
- Department of Paediatrics, University College Hospital, Ibadan, Nigeria
| | - Usman Nasir
- Department of Paediatrics, University College Hospital, Ibadan, Nigeria
| | - Veronica Chinyere Ezeaka
- Department of Paediatrics, College of Medicine, University of Lagos, Lagos, Nigeria
- Department of Paediatrics, Lagos University Teaching Hospital, Lagos, Nigeria
| | - Stephen Allen
- Department of Clinical Sciences, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, UK
- Department of Paediatrics, Edwards Francis Small Teaching Hospital, Banjul, The Gambia
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Dadari I, Sharkey A, Hoare I, Izurieta R. Analysis of the impact of COVID-19 pandemic and response on routine childhood vaccination coverage and equity in Northern Nigeria: a mixed methods study. BMJ Open 2023; 13:e076154. [PMID: 37852768 PMCID: PMC10603460 DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2023-076154] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/30/2023] [Accepted: 09/28/2023] [Indexed: 10/20/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Based on 2021 data, Nigeria had the second largest number of zero-dose children globally estimated at over 2.25 million, concentrated in the northern part of the country due to factors some of which are sociocultural. This study analysed the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and response on childhood vaccination in Northern Nigeria. METHODS Using a mixed methods sequential study design in the most populous northern states of Kaduna and Kano, quantitative routine immunisation data for the period 2018-2021 and qualitative data collected through 16 focus group discussions and 40 key informant interviews were used. An adaptation of the socioecological model was used as a conceptual framework. Mean vaccination coverages and test of statistical difference in childhood vaccination data were computed. Qualitative data were coded and analysed thematically. RESULTS Mean Penta 1 coverage declined in Kaduna from 69.88% (SD=21.02) in 2018 to 59.54% (SD=19.14%) by 2021, contrasting with Kano where mean Penta 1 coverage increased from 51.87% (SD=12.61) to 56.32% (SD=17.62%) over the same period. Outreaches and vaccination in urban areas declined for Kaduna state by 10% over the pandemic period in contrast to Kano state where it showed a marginal increase. The two states combined had an estimated 25% of the country's zero-dose burden in 2021. Lockdowns, lack of transport and no outreaches which varied across the states were some of the factors mentioned by participants to have negatively impacted childhood vaccination. Special vaccination outreaches were among the recommendations for ensuring continued vaccination through a future pandemic. CONCLUSION While further interrogating the accuracy of denominator estimates for the urban population, incorporating findings into pandemic preparedness and response will ensure uninterrupted childhood vaccination during emergencies. Addressing the identified issues will be critical to achieving and sustaining universal childhood vaccination in Nigeria.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ibrahim Dadari
- College of Public Health, University of South Florida, Tampa, Florida, USA
- PG-Health-Immunization, United Nations Children's Fund, New York, New York, USA
| | - Alyssa Sharkey
- School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
| | - Ismael Hoare
- College of Public Health, University of South Florida, Tampa, Florida, USA
| | - Ricardo Izurieta
- College of Public Health, University of South Florida, Tampa, Florida, USA
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Lau M, Kraus V, Schulze AF, Rausch TK, Krüger M, Göpel W. Observational study on the neonatal outcome during the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany. Acta Paediatr 2023; 112:1892-1897. [PMID: 37306278 DOI: 10.1111/apa.16873] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/06/2023] [Revised: 05/24/2023] [Accepted: 06/09/2023] [Indexed: 06/13/2023]
Abstract
AIM We aimed to determine stillbirth, preterm birth, perinatal complications, and the developmental outcome of children born preterm during the COVID-19 pandemic in Germany. METHODS National data from the perinatal survey of preterm and term infants born in 2017-2020 between 22 March and 31 December were evaluated. Neurodevelopment of preterm infants at 2 years corrected age was tested with the Parent Report of Children's Abilities-Revised questionnaire and by clinical testing with Bayley scales, either before or during the COVID-19 pandemic. Statistical significance was calculated using a Pearson's chi-square-independence test and a linear regression model. RESULTS In 2020, there was an increase of stillbirths of 0.02% (p = 0.01) and a decrease in preterm births by 0.38% (p < 0.001). No changes were found in a representative subgroup of infants with regard to neurodevelopmental scores (mental developmental index and psychomotor developmental index) or in parent survey data (non-verbal cognition scale and language development scale). CONCLUSION Increasing rates of stillbirths and decreasing preterm births in Germany were observed. Existing networks might stabilise neurodevelopment of preterm infants during the COVID-19 pandemic.
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Affiliation(s)
- M Lau
- Department of Paediatrics, University Hospital of Schleswig-Holstein, University of Lübeck, Lübeck, Germany
| | - V Kraus
- Chair of Social Paediatrics, School of Medicine of the Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
- Pediatric Neurology, School of Medicine and Munich Municipal Hospital Group, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany
| | | | - T K Rausch
- Institute of Medical Biometry and Statistics, University of Lübeck, Lübeck, Germany
| | - M Krüger
- Neonatology, Munich Municipal Hospital Group, Munich, Germany
| | - W Göpel
- Department of Paediatrics, University Hospital of Schleswig-Holstein, University of Lübeck, Lübeck, Germany
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Chippaux JP. COVID-19 impacts on healthcare access in sub-Saharan Africa: an overview. J Venom Anim Toxins Incl Trop Dis 2023; 29:e20230002. [PMID: 37405230 PMCID: PMC10317188 DOI: 10.1590/1678-9199-jvatitd-2023-0002] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/04/2023] [Accepted: 05/30/2023] [Indexed: 07/06/2023] Open
Abstract
This overview aimed to describe the situation of healthcare access in sub-Saharan Africa, excluding South Africa, during the COVID-19 pandemic. A PubMed® search from March 31, 2020, to August 15, 2022, selected 116 articles. Healthcare access and consequences of COVID-19 were assessed based on comparisons with months before its onset or an identical season in previous years. A general reduction of healthcare delivery, associated with the decline of care quality, and closure of many specialty services were reported. The impact was heterogeneous in space and time, with an increase in urban areas at the beginning of the pandemic (March-June 2020). The return to normalcy was gradual from the 3rd quarter of 2020 until the end of 2021. The impact of COVID-19 on the health system and its use was attributed to (a) conjunctural factors resulting from government actions to mitigate the spread of the epidemic (containment, transportation restrictions, closures of businesses, and places of entertainment or worship); (b) structural factors related to the disruption of public and private facilities and institutions, in particular, the health system; and (c) individual factors linked to the increase in costs, impoverishment of the population, and fear of contamination or stigmatization, which discouraged patients from going to health centers. They have caused considerable socio-economic damage. Several studies emphasized some adaptability of the healthcare offer and resilience of the healthcare system, despite its unpreparedness, which explained a return to normal activities as early as 2022 while the COVID-19 epidemic persisted. There appears to be a strong disproportion between the moderate incidence and severity of COVID-19 in sub-Saharan Africa, and the dramatic impact on healthcare access. Several articles make recommendations for lowering the socioeconomic consequences of future epidemics to ensure better management of health issues.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jean-Philippe Chippaux
- Paris Cité University, Research Institute for Development, Mother and child in tropical environment: pathogens, health system and epidemiological transition, Paris, France
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6
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Chippaux JP. [Impact of COVID-19 on public health in sub-Saharan Africa]. BULLETIN DE L'ACADEMIE NATIONALE DE MEDECINE 2023; 207:150-164. [PMID: 36628105 PMCID: PMC9816877 DOI: 10.1016/j.banm.2022.10.015] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/15/2022] [Accepted: 10/27/2022] [Indexed: 01/09/2023]
Abstract
Objective This work aimed to assess the impact of COVID-19 on healthcare supply in sub-Saharan Africa except South Africa. Method A search through PubMed® between April 2020 and August 2022 selected 135 articles. The impact of COVID-19 was assessed on comparisons with the months prior to the onset of COVID-19 or an identical season in previous years. Results The decline of health services, associated with a reduction in their quality, and the closure of specialized health units have been reported. Many control programs and public health interventions have been interrupted, with the risk of an increase of the corresponding diseases. Social disorganization has generated mental health issues among the population, including health personnel. The impact was heterogeneous in space and time. The main causes were attributed to containment measures (transport restrictions, trade closures) and the lack of human and material resources. The increase in costs, in addition to the impoverishment of the population, and the fear of being contaminated or stigmatized have discouraged patients from going to health centres. The studies mention the gradual return to normal after the first epidemic wave and the resilience of the healthcare system. Conclusion Several articles make recommendations aimed at reducing the impact of future epidemics: support for community workers, training of health workers and reorganization of services to improve the reception and care of patients, technological innovations (use of telephones, drones, etc.) and better information monitoring.
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Zińczuk A, Rorat M, Jurek T. COVID-19-related excess mortality - an overview of the current evidence. ARCHIVES OF FORENSIC MEDICINE AND CRIMINOLOGY 2023; 73:33-44. [PMID: 38186033 DOI: 10.4467/16891716amsik.22.004.18214] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/02/2023] [Accepted: 07/11/2023] [Indexed: 01/09/2024] Open
Abstract
Analysis of excess deaths, defined as the difference in the total number of deaths in an emergency compared to the number of deaths expected under normal conditions, allows a more reliable assessment of the impact on health systems caused by the global threat of SARS-CoV-2 (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2). So far, data for the two years of the pandemic (2020-2021) indicates the occurrence of 14.9 million excess deaths according to WHO (World Health Organization) estimates. The purpose of the analysis conducted was to define the concept and identify the causes of excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic. Inconsistent and unreliable death registration systems; overburdened health systems in low- and middle-income countries; reduced access to medical services for patients with health problems other than COVID-19; the introduction of social distancing and lockdown rules, which translated into increased deaths from psychiatric illnesses and addictions; political considerations and media messages that interfered with vaccination acceptance and adherence; and the additional impact of other natural disasters (hurricanes, floods, drought) were identified as the most important reasons for excess deaths occurrence. The correct identification of country-specific factors and the correct response and countermeasures taken appear crucial in terms of limiting the negative impact of the current pandemic, but also of future threats of a similar nature, in order to reduce excess deaths.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - Maria Rorat
- Department of Forensic Medicine, Wroclaw Medical University, Poland
| | - Tomasz Jurek
- Department of Forensic Medicine, Wroclaw Medical University, Poland
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Yao X, Zhu L, Yin J, Wen J. Impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on preterm birth: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Public Health 2022; 213:127-134. [PMID: 36410118 PMCID: PMC9579188 DOI: 10.1016/j.puhe.2022.10.015] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/06/2022] [Revised: 10/11/2022] [Accepted: 10/13/2022] [Indexed: 12/14/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly affected healthcare systems and daily well-being. However, the reports of the indirect impacts of the pandemic on preterm birth remain conflicting. We performed a meta-analysis to examine whether the pandemic altered the risk of preterm birth. STUDY DESIGN This was a systematic review and meta-analysis of the previous literature. METHODS We searched MEDLINE and Embase databases until March 2022 using appropriate keywords and extracted 63 eligible studies that compared preterm between the COVID-19 pandemic period and the prepandemic period. A random effects model was used to obtain the pooled odds of each outcome. The study protocol was registered with PROSPERO (No. CRD42022326717). RESULTS The search identified 3827 studies, of which 63 reports were included. A total of 3,220,370 pregnancies during the COVID-19 pandemic period and 6,122,615 pregnancies during the prepandemic period were studied. Compared with the prepandemic period, we identified a significant decreased odds of preterm birth (PTB; <37 weeks' gestation; pooled odds ratio [OR; 95% confidence interval (CI)] = 0.96 [0.94, 0.98]; I2 = 78.7%; 62 studies) and extremely PTB (<28 weeks' gestation; pooled OR [95% CI] = 0.92 [0.87, 0.97]; I2 = 26.4%; 25 studies) during the pandemic, whereas there was only a borderline significant reduction in the odds of very PTB (<32 weeks' gestation; pooled OR [95% CI] = 0.93 [0.86, 1.01]; I2 = 90.1%; 33 studies) between the two periods. There was significant publication bias for PTB. CONCLUSION Pooled results suggested the COVID-19 pandemic was associated with preterm birth, although there was only a borderline significant reduction for very PTB during the pandemic compared with the prepandemic period. Large studies showed conflicting results, and further research on whether the change is related to pandemic mitigation measures was warranted.
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Affiliation(s)
- X.D. Yao
- Nanjing Maternity and Child Health Care Institute, Women's Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing Maternity and Child Health Care Hospital, Nanjing, China
| | - L.J. Zhu
- Nanjing Maternity and Child Health Care Institute, Women's Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing Maternity and Child Health Care Hospital, Nanjing, China
| | - J. Yin
- Department of Neonatology, Women's Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing Maternity and Child Health Care Hospital, Nanjing, China,Corresponding author
| | - J. Wen
- Nanjing Maternity and Child Health Care Institute, Women's Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing Maternity and Child Health Care Hospital, Nanjing, China,Corresponding author
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Estimating excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic analysis of COVID-19-related mortality, 2020-21. Lancet 2022; 399:1513-1536. [PMID: 35279232 PMCID: PMC8912932 DOI: 10.1016/s0140-6736(21)02796-3] [Citation(s) in RCA: 731] [Impact Index Per Article: 365.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/01/2021] [Revised: 12/05/2021] [Accepted: 12/09/2021] [Indexed: 02/06/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Mortality statistics are fundamental to public health decision making. Mortality varies by time and location, and its measurement is affected by well known biases that have been exacerbated during the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper aims to estimate excess mortality from the COVID-19 pandemic in 191 countries and territories, and 252 subnational units for selected countries, from Jan 1, 2020, to Dec 31, 2021. METHODS All-cause mortality reports were collected for 74 countries and territories and 266 subnational locations (including 31 locations in low-income and middle-income countries) that had reported either weekly or monthly deaths from all causes during the pandemic in 2020 and 2021, and for up to 11 year previously. In addition, we obtained excess mortality data for 12 states in India. Excess mortality over time was calculated as observed mortality, after excluding data from periods affected by late registration and anomalies such as heat waves, minus expected mortality. Six models were used to estimate expected mortality; final estimates of expected mortality were based on an ensemble of these models. Ensemble weights were based on root mean squared errors derived from an out-of-sample predictive validity test. As mortality records are incomplete worldwide, we built a statistical model that predicted the excess mortality rate for locations and periods where all-cause mortality data were not available. We used least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression as a variable selection mechanism and selected 15 covariates, including both covariates pertaining to the COVID-19 pandemic, such as seroprevalence, and to background population health metrics, such as the Healthcare Access and Quality Index, with direction of effects on excess mortality concordant with a meta-analysis by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. With the selected best model, we ran a prediction process using 100 draws for each covariate and 100 draws of estimated coefficients and residuals, estimated from the regressions run at the draw level using draw-level input data on both excess mortality and covariates. Mean values and 95% uncertainty intervals were then generated at national, regional, and global levels. Out-of-sample predictive validity testing was done on the basis of our final model specification. FINDINGS Although reported COVID-19 deaths between Jan 1, 2020, and Dec 31, 2021, totalled 5·94 million worldwide, we estimate that 18·2 million (95% uncertainty interval 17·1-19·6) people died worldwide because of the COVID-19 pandemic (as measured by excess mortality) over that period. The global all-age rate of excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic was 120·3 deaths (113·1-129·3) per 100 000 of the population, and excess mortality rate exceeded 300 deaths per 100 000 of the population in 21 countries. The number of excess deaths due to COVID-19 was largest in the regions of south Asia, north Africa and the Middle East, and eastern Europe. At the country level, the highest numbers of cumulative excess deaths due to COVID-19 were estimated in India (4·07 million [3·71-4·36]), the USA (1·13 million [1·08-1·18]), Russia (1·07 million [1·06-1·08]), Mexico (798 000 [741 000-867 000]), Brazil (792 000 [730 000-847 000]), Indonesia (736 000 [594 000-955 000]), and Pakistan (664 000 [498 000-847 000]). Among these countries, the excess mortality rate was highest in Russia (374·6 deaths [369·7-378·4] per 100 000) and Mexico (325·1 [301·6-353·3] per 100 000), and was similar in Brazil (186·9 [172·2-199·8] per 100 000) and the USA (179·3 [170·7-187·5] per 100 000). INTERPRETATION The full impact of the pandemic has been much greater than what is indicated by reported deaths due to COVID-19 alone. Strengthening death registration systems around the world, long understood to be crucial to global public health strategy, is necessary for improved monitoring of this pandemic and future pandemics. In addition, further research is warranted to help distinguish the proportion of excess mortality that was directly caused by SARS-CoV-2 infection and the changes in causes of death as an indirect consequence of the pandemic. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, J Stanton, T Gillespie, and J and E Nordstrom.
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Raru TB, Ayana GM, Yuya M, Merga BT, Kure MA, Negash B, Birhanu A, Alemu A, Dessie Y, Dheresa M. Magnitude, Trends, and Determinants of Institutional Delivery Among Reproductive Age Women in Kersa Health and Demographic Surveillance System Site, Eastern Ethiopia: A Multilevel Analysis. Front Glob Womens Health 2022; 3:821858. [PMID: 35295677 PMCID: PMC8918653 DOI: 10.3389/fgwh.2022.821858] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/25/2021] [Accepted: 01/07/2022] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Institutional delivery service utilization is a critical and proven intervention for reducing maternal and neonatal mortality. Institutional delivery service utilization can improve maternal health and wellbeing by ensuring safe delivery and reducing problems occurring during childbirth. In Ethiopia, almost all previous researches were cross-sectional studies and most of them were based on small sample sizes and there are no sufficient reports for the trends. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the magnitude, trends, and determinants of institutional delivery using surveillance data from the Kersa Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS), in Eastern Ethiopia from 2015 to 2020. Methods The study was conducted among reproductive-aged women selected from the Kersa HDSS site, Eastern Ethiopia for the duration of 2015 to 2020. Data were extracted from the Kersa HDSS database system. After coding and recoding, the data was exported to R software for further analysis. A chi-squared test was used for trends to examine the significance of the change. A multilevel logistic regression model was fitted to identify determinants of institutional delivery. An adjusted odds ratio with a 95% confidence interval (CI) was used to measure the strength of the associations. Statistical significance was declared at a p-value < 0.05. Results A total of 20,033 reproductive age women were employed for analysis. The overall magnitude of institutional delivery was 45.03% with 95% CI (44.33–45.72). The institutional delivery has shown a decreasing trend over the 6 years' and there is statistical significance for the declining. Semi-urban resident [AOR = 2.33, 95% CI: 1.37–4.48], urban resident [AOR = 7.18, 95% CI: 5.24, 8.71], read and write [AOR = 1.54, 95% CI: 1.18, 2.01], literate [AOR = 1.46, 95% CI: 1.34–1.59], and antenatal care [AOR = 1.73, 95% CI: 1.58–1.88] were significantly associated with institutional delivery. Conclusion The magnitude of institutional delivery was relatively low and has shown a decreasing trend. Community-based interventions should be strengthened to reverse the decreasing trend of institutional delivery. Targeted information dissemination and communication should be provided to those mothers who have no formal education and attention should be given to rural residents.
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Affiliation(s)
- Temam Beshir Raru
- School of Public Health, College of Health and Medical Sciences, Haramaya University, Harar, Ethiopia
| | - Galana Mamo Ayana
- School of Public Health, College of Health and Medical Sciences, Haramaya University, Harar, Ethiopia
| | - Mohammed Yuya
- School of Public Health, College of Health and Medical Sciences, Haramaya University, Harar, Ethiopia
| | - Bedasa Taye Merga
- School of Public Health, College of Health and Medical Sciences, Haramaya University, Harar, Ethiopia
| | - Mohammed Abdurke Kure
- School of Nursing and Midwifery, College of Health and Medical Sciences, Haramaya University, Harar, Ethiopia
- *Correspondence: Mohammed Abdurke Kure
| | - Belay Negash
- School of Public Health, College of Health and Medical Sciences, Haramaya University, Harar, Ethiopia
| | - Abdi Birhanu
- School of Medicine, College of Health and Medical Sciences, Haramaya University, Harar, Ethiopia
| | - Addisu Alemu
- School of Public Health, College of Health and Medical Sciences, Haramaya University, Harar, Ethiopia
| | - Yadeta Dessie
- School of Public Health, College of Health and Medical Sciences, Haramaya University, Harar, Ethiopia
| | - Merga Dheresa
- School of Nursing and Midwifery, College of Health and Medical Sciences, Haramaya University, Harar, Ethiopia
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