Ambulatory blood pressure and long-term risk for atrial fibrillation

Global burden of atrial fibrillation/atrial flutter and its attributable risk factors from 1990 to 2021

AIMS

To devise effective preventive measures, a profound understanding of the evolving patterns and trends in atrial fibrillation (AF) and atrial flutter (AFL) burdens is pivotal. Our study was designed to quantify the burden and delineate the risk factors associated with AF and AFL across 204 countries and territories spanning 1990-2021.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Data pertaining to AF and AFL were sourced from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. The burden of AF/AFL was evaluated using metrics such as incidence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), deaths, and their corresponding age-standardized rates (ASRs), stratified by age, sex, socio-demographic index (SDI), and human development index (HDI). The estimated annual percentage change was employed to quantify changes in ASRs. Population attributable fractions were calculated to determine the proportional contributions of major risk factors to age-standardized AF/AFL deaths. This analysis encompassed the period from 1990 to 2021. Globally, in 2021, there were 4.48 million incident cases [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 3.61-5.70], 8.36 million DALYs (95% UI: 6.97-10.13) and 0.34 million deaths (95% UI: 0.29-0.37) attributed to AF/AFL. The AF/AFL burden in 2021, as well as its trends from 1990 to 2021, displayed substantial variations based on gender, SDI quintiles, and geographical regions. High systolic blood pressure emerged as the leading contributor to age-standardized AF/AFL incidence, prevalence, death, and DALY rate globally among all potential risk factors, followed closely by high body mass index.

CONCLUSION

Our study underscores the enduring significance of AF/AFL as a prominent public health concern worldwide, marked by profound regional and national variations. Despite the substantial potential for prevention and management of AF/AFL, there is a pressing imperative to adopt more cost-effective strategies and interventions to target modifiable risk factors, particularly in areas where the burden of AF/AFL is high or escalating.

The relationship between ambulatory arterial stiffness index and incident atrial fibrillation

BACKGROUND

The ambulatory arterial stiffness index (AASI) is an indirect measure of blood pressure variability and arterial stiffness which are atrial fibrillation (AF) risk factors. The relationship between AASI and AF development has not been previously investigated and was the primary aim of this study.

METHODS

This was an observational cohort study of adults (aged 18-85 years) in sinus rhythm, who underwent 24-h ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM) for the diagnosis of hypertension or its control.

RESULTS

Eight hundred and twenty-one patients (49% men) aged 58.7 ± 15.3 years were followed up for a median of 4.0 years (3317 patient-years). In total, 75 patients (9.1%) developed ≥1 AF episode during follow-up. The mean AASI was 0.46 ± 0.17 (median 0.46). AASI values (0.52 ± 0.16 vs. 0.45 ± 0.17; p < .001) and the proportion of AASI values above the median (65.3% vs. 48.4%; p = .005) were greater among the patients who developed AF versus those that did not respectively. AASI significantly correlated with age (r = .49; 95% confidence interval: 0.44-0.54: p < .001). On Kaplan-Meier analysis, higher baseline AASI by median, tertiles, and quartiles were all significantly associated with AF development (X2: 10.13; p < .001). On Cox regression analyses, both a 1-standard deviation increase and AASI > median were independent predictors of AF, but this relationship was no longer significant when age was included in the model.

CONCLUSIONS

AASI is an independent predictor of AF development. However, this relationship becomes insignificant after adjustment for age which is higher correlated with AASI.

The Role of Blood Pressure Load in Ambulatory Blood Pressure Monitoring in Adults: A Literature Review of Current Evidence

BACKGROUND

The blood pressure load (BPL) is commonly defined as the percentage of readings in a 24-h ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM) study above a certain threshold, usually the upper normal limit. While it has been studied since the 1990s, the benefits of using this index have not been clearly demonstrated in adults. We present the first review on the associations of BPL with target organ damage (TOD) and clinical outcomes in adults, the major determinants for its role and utility in blood pressure measurement. We emphasize studies which evaluated whether BPL has added benefit to the average blood pressure indices on ABPM in predicting adverse outcomes.

METHODS

PubMed search for all English language papers mentioning ABPM and BPL.

RESULTS

While multiple studies assessed this question, the cumulative sample size is small. Whereas the associations of BPL with various TODs are evident, the available literature fails to demonstrate a clear and consistent added value for the BPL over the average blood pressure indices.

CONCLUSIONS

There is a need for prospective studies evaluating the role of BPL in blood pressure measurement. The current literature does not provide sound support for the use of BPL in clinical decisions.

Blood pressure, hypertension and the risk of atrial fibrillation: a systematic review and meta-analysis of cohort studies

Elevated blood pressure and hypertension have been associated with increased risk of atrial fibrillation in a number of epidemiological studies, however, the strength of the association has differed between studies. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of the association between blood pressure and hypertension and atrial fibrillation. PubMed and Embase databases were searched for studies of hypertension and blood pressure and atrial fibrillation up to June 6th 2022. Cohort studies reporting adjusted relative risk (RR) estimates and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of atrial fibrillation associated with hypertension or blood pressure were included. A random effects model was used to estimate summary RRs. Sixty eight cohort studies were included in the meta-analysis. The summary RR was 1.50 (95% CI: 1.42-1.58, I2 = 98.1%, n = 56 studies) for people with hypertension compared to those without hypertension (1,080,611 cases, 30,539,230 participants), 1.18 (95% CI: 1.16-1.21, I2 = 65.9%, n = 37 studies) per 20 mmHg increase in systolic blood pressure (346,471 cases, 14,569,396 participants), and 1.07 (95% CI: 1.03-1.11, I2 = 91.5%, n = 22 studies) per 10 mmHg increase in diastolic blood pressure (332,867 cases, 14,354,980 participants). There was evidence of a nonlinear association between diastolic blood pressure and atrial fibrillation with a steeper increase in risk at lower levels of diastolic blood pressure, but for systolic blood pressure the association appeared to be linear. For both systolic and diastolic blood pressure, the risk increased even within the normal range of blood pressure and persons at the high end of systolic and diastolic blood pressure around 180/110 mmHg had a 1.8-2.3 fold higher risk of atrial fibrillation compared to those with a blood pressure of 90/60 mmHg. These results suggest that elevated blood pressure and hypertension increases the risk of atrial fibrillation and there is some increase in risk even within the normal range of systolic and diastolic blood pressure.

Epidemiology and modifiable risk factors for atrial fibrillation

The global prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) has increased substantially over the past three decades and is currently approximately 60 million cases. Incident AF and its clinical consequences are largely the result of risk factors that can be modified by lifestyle changes. In this Review, we provide evidence that the lifetime risk of AF is modified not only by sex and race but also through the clinical risk factor and comorbidity burden of individual patients. We begin by summarizing the epidemiology of AF, focusing on non-modifiable and modifiable risk factors, as well as targets and strategies for the primary prevention of AF. Furthermore, we evaluate the role of modifiable risk factors in the secondary prevention of AF as well as the potential effects of risk factor interventions on the frequency and severity of subsequent AF episodes. We end the Review by proposing strategies that require evaluation as well as global policy changes that are needed for the prevention of incident AF and the management of recurrent episodes in patients already affected by AF.

The relationship between morning blood pressure surge and asymptomatic episodes of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation in patients with systemic arterial hypertension

BACKGROUND

Hypertension is a known risk factor for developing atrial fibrillation. However, there is limited data to investigate the association between morning blood pressure surge (MBPS) and paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (PAF). We conducted the present study to determine whether there is a relationship between asymptomatic PAF and MBPS and whether MBPS may be a predictor of asymptomatic PAF episodes.

METHODS

This prospective study comprised 264 adult patients who were newly diagnosed with essential hypertension or were previously diagnosed but not receiving regular antihypertensive therapy. We evaluated the patients in 2 groups according to their 24-h electrocardiography monitoring results: group 1 included patients who exhibited PAF (n = 32, 23 females/9 males; mean age 60.2 ± 7.4 years) and group 2 included patients with no signs of PAF as a control group (n = 232, 134 females/98 males; mean age 56.9 ± 9.4 years). We calculated the MBPS as the difference between mean systolic blood pressure (SBP) in the 2 h after getting up and the minimum nocturnal SBP.

RESULTS

: MBPS values were significantly higher in group 1 than in group 2 (35.3 ± 7.0 vs. 22.0 ± 6.7, p < 0.001). MBPS was positively associated with left atrial diameter (LAD) (r = 0.441, p < 0.001), left ventricle mass index (LVMI) (r = 0.235, p < 0.001), the ratio of early (E) peak of mitral inflow velocity to early (Em) diastolic mitral annular velocity (E / Em) (r = 0.239, p < 0.001), 24-h mean (r = 0.270, p < 0.001) and daytime SBP (r = 0.291, p < 0.001). We determined a cut-off value for MBPS as 28.6 for predicting PAF episodes development and identified LAD and MBPS as independent risk factors for PAF.

DISCUSSION

Patients who had larger MBPS were observed to have higher PAF incidence. MBPS values may be sensitive in predicting asymptomatic episodes of paroxysmal atrial fibrillation.

Global, regional, and national burden of disease study of atrial fibrillation/flutter, 1990-2019: results from a global burden of disease study, 2019

Background

Data from the Global Burden of Disease, Injury, and Risk Factor Study 2019 (GBD 2019) was used to assess the burden and change in prevalence, incidence, deaths, disability-adjusted life years, and risk factors for atrial fibrillation/flutter in 204 countries and territories between 1990 and 2019.

Methods

Incidence, prevalence, deaths, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and their age-standardized rates of AF/AFL were analyzed by age, sex, socio-demographic index (SDI), and human development index (HDI) using the Global Burden of Disease study 2019 (GBD2019) results，and risk factors for AF/AFL (mainly high systolic blood pressure, high body-mass index, alcohol use, smoking and diet high in sodium) were differentially analyzed.

Results

There are 59.70 million (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 45.73–75.29 million) AF/AFL patients worldwide in 2019, with 4.72 million (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 3.64–5.96 million) new cases and 0.315 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 0.268–0.361 million) and 8.39 million disability-adjusted years (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 6.69–10.54 million). The highest risk factor for deaths, DALYs attributable to AF/AFL in 2019 was high systolic blood pressure, high body-mass index, alcohol use, smoking, and diet high in sodium. It is estimated that between 2030 and 2034, the total incidence of male AF/ AFL will be 16.08 million, and the total number of deaths will be 1.01 million. For females, the total number of incidence is 16.85 million, and the total number of deaths is 1.49 million.

Conclusions

AF/AFL remains a major global public health problem, although the ASR of prevalence, incidence, and DALY at the worldwide level showed a decreasing trend from 1990 to 2019(the ASR of deaths increased slightly). However, the unfavorable trend observed in this study in countries with lower SDI suggests that current prevention and treatment strategies should be reoriented. Some countries should develop more targeted and specific strategies to prevent the increase of AF/AFL.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-022-14403-2.

Prediction of atrial fibrillation in patients with hypertension: A comprehensive comparison of office and ambulatory blood pressure measurements

Hypertension is associated with the development of atrial fibrillation (AF). Evidence has shown that reverse dipping pattern, an abnormal increase of night-time blood pressure (BP) comparing to daytime BP, is associated with cardiovascular events. However, the relationship between diurnal changes in BP and AF has not been sufficiently explored. This paper aims to cross-sectionally explore the relationship between AF and ambulatory BP parameters, especially reverse dippers to the others, and further longitudinally analyze how BP patterns are associated to the risk of developing new-onset AF. Between February 2012 and March 2021, five out of 412 patients were identified of AF at baseline; four were reverse dippers (3.7%) and one was from the others (.3%). Cross-sectionally, the multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that reverse dippers were significantly more likely to have AF (odds ratio: 12.39, p = .030). After excluding patients with baseline AF, during the mean follow-up of 4.6 ± 3.0 years, seven patients developed AF. Longitudinally, the multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that 24-h systolic BP (hazard ratio per 10 mmHg: 2.12, p = .015), night-time systolic BP (hazard ratio per 10 mmHg: 2.27, p = .002), and presentation of reverse dipping (hazard ratio: 5.25, p = .042) were independently associated with new-onset AF. None of the office BP measurements were associated with new-onset AF. While ambulatory BP measurements were better predictors for the incidence of AF, careful management is necessary for reverse dippers as they are at high risk of developing AF.

Subclinical left atrial dysfunction profiles for prediction of cardiac outcome in the general population

OBJECTIVE

Echocardiographic definitions of subclinical left atrial dysfunction based on epidemiological data remain scarce. In this population study, we derived outcome-driven thresholds for echocardiographic left atrial function parameters discriminating between normal and abnormal values.

METHODS

In 1306 individuals (mean age, 50.7 years; 51.6% women), we echocardiographically assessed left atrial function and LV global longitudinal strain. We derived cut-off values for left atrial emptying fraction (LAEF), left atrial function index (LAFI) and left atrial reservoir strain (LARS) to define left atrial dysfunction using receiver-operating curve threshold analysis. Main outcome was the incidence of cardiac events and atrial fibrillation (AFib) on average 8.5 years later.

RESULTS

For prediction of new-onset AFib, left atrial cut-offs yielding the best balance between sensitivity and specificity (highest Youden index) were: LAEF less than 55%, LAFI less than 40.5 and LARS less than 23%. Applying these cut-offs, abnormal LAEF, LAFI and LARS were, respectively, present in 27, 37.1 and 18.1% of the cohort. Abnormal LARS (<23%) was independently associated with higher risk for cardiac events and new-onset AFib (P ≤ 0.012). Participants with both abnormal LAEF and LARS presented a significantly higher risk to develop cardiac events (hazard ratio: 2.10; P = 0.014) and AFib (hazard ratio: 6.45; P = 0.0036) than normal counterparts. The concomitant presence of an impaired LARS and LV global longitudinal strain improved prognostic accuracy beyond a clinical risk model for cardiac events and the CHARGE-AF Risk Score for AFib.

CONCLUSION

Left atrial dysfunction based on outcome-driven thresholds predicted cardiac events and AFib independent of conventional risk factors. Screening for subclinical left atrial and LV systolic dysfunction may enhance cardiac disease prediction in the community.

Risk of Atrial Fibrillation in Masked and White Coat Uncontrolled Hypertension

BACKGROUND

Risk of atrial fibrillation (AF) in masked and white coat uncontrolled hypertension (MUCH and WUCH, respectively) has not yet been investigated. We assessed the risk of new-onset AF in MUCH and WUCH detected by ambulatory blood pressure (BP) monitoring.

METHODS

The occurrence of AF was evaluated in 2,135 treated hypertensive patients aged >40 years, with baseline sinus rhythm, by electrocardiogram. Controlled hypertension (CH) was defined as clinic BP <140/90 mm Hg and daytime BP, regardless of nighttime BP, <135/85 mm Hg, MUCH as clinic BP <140/90 mm Hg and daytime BP ≥135 and/or ≥85 mm Hg, WUCH as clinic BP ≥140 and/or ≥90 mm Hg and daytime BP <135/85 mm Hg, and sustained uncontrolled hypertension (SUCH) as clinic BP ≥140 and/or ≥90 mm Hg and daytime BP ≥135 and/or ≥85 mm Hg.

RESULTS

MUCH was identified in 203 patients (9.5% of all the population, 29% of those with normal clinic BP) and WUCH in 503 patients (23.5% of all the population, 35% of those with high clinic BP). During the follow-up (mean 9.7 years), 116 cases of AF occurred. After adjustment for covariates, patients with MUCH (hazard ratio 2.02, 95% confidence interval, 1.06-3.85) and SUCH (hazard ratio 1.83, 95% confidence interval, 1.04-3.21) had higher risk of new-onset AF than those with CH, whereas those with WUCH (hazard ratio 1.12, 95% confidence interval, 0.59-2.13) did not.

CONCLUSIONS

When compared with patients with CH, those with MUCH and SUCH are at higher risk (approximately doubled) of new-onset AF, whereas those with WUCH are not.

Association of clinic and ambulatory blood pressure with new-onset atrial fibrillation: A meta-analysis of observational studies

The aim of this study was to perform a meta‐analysis of studies evaluating the association of clinic and daytime, nighttime, and 24‐h blood pressure with the occurrence of new‐onset atrial fibrillation. We conducted a literature search through PubMed, Web of science, and Cochrane Library for articles evaluating the occurrence of new‐onset atrial fibrillation in relation to the above‐mentioned blood pressure parameters and reporting adjusted hazard ratio and 95% confidence interval. We identified five studies. The pooled population consisted of 7224 patients who experienced 444 cases of atrial fibrillation. The overall adjusted hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) was 1.05 (0.98‐1.13), 1.19 (1.11‐1.27), 1.18 (1.11‐1.26), and 1.23 (1.14‐1.32), per 10‐mmHg increment in clinic, daytime, nighttime, and 24‐h systolic blood pressure, respectively. The degree of heterogeneity of the hazard ratio estimates across the studies (Q and I‐squared statistics) were minimal. The results of this meta‐analysis strongly suggest that ambulatory systolic blood pressure prospectively predicts incident atrial fibrillation better than does clinic systolic blood pressure and that daytime, nighttime, and 24‐h systolic blood pressure are similarly associated with future atrial fibrillation.

Ambulatory blood pressure and risk of new-onset atrial fibrillation in treated hypertensive patients

The aim of this study was to evaluate the influence of clinic and ambulatory blood pressure (BP) on the occurrence of new-onset atrial fibrillation (AF) in treated hypertensive patients. We studied 2135 sequential treated hypertensive patients aged >40 years. During the follow-up (mean 9.7 years, range 0.4-20 years), 116 events (new-onset AF) occurred. In univariate analysis, clinic, daytime, nighttime, and 24-h systolic BP were all significantly associated with increased risk of new-onset AF, that is, hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) per 10 mm Hg increment 1.22 (1.11-1.35), 1.36 (1.21-1.53), 1.42 (1.29-1.57), and 1.42 (1.26-1.60), respectively. After adjustment for various covariates in multivariate analysis, clinic systolic BP was no longer associated with increased risk of new-onset AF, whereas daytime, nighttime, and 24-h systolic BP remained significantly associated with outcome, that is, hazard ratio (95% confidence interval) per 10 mm Hg increment 1.09 (0.97-1.23), 1.23 (1.10-1.39), 1.16 (1.03-1.31), and 1.22 (1.06-1.40), respectively. Daytime, nighttime, and 24-h systolic BP are superior to clinic systolic BP in predicting new-onset AF in treated hypertensive patients. Future studies are needed to evaluate whether a better control of ambulatory BP might be helpful in reducing the occurrence of new-onset AF.

Combined treatment with valsartan and fluvastatin to delay disease progression in nonpermanent atrial fibrillation with hypertension: A clinical trial

Background

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a complex cardiac arrhythmia in clinical practice with increasing incidence. However, the effects of statins on patients with AF are not quite clear.

Hypothesis

To investigate the protective effect of calcium channel blocker (CCB) and valsartan combined fluvastatin on hypertension (HTN) patients with nonpermanent AF.

Methods

In three and a half years, 189 cases of patients diagnosed as HTN combining nonpermanent AF by eight medical centers, were recruited and randomly assigned to four groups with varied treatments: CCB group; CCB + statin group; valsartan group; and valsartan + statin group. The four groups were followed up for 24 months. The 7‐day Holter ultrasound echocardiography (UCG) and biochemical indexes were completed at preset time nodes respectively.

Results

After 24 months of follow‐up, 178 patients completed the study. Compared with CCB group, the blood lipid level, inflammatory index, ultrasonic index and electrocardiographic measurement results of CCB + statin group, valsartan group and valsartan + statin group were improved in different degrees and had statistical significance (P < .05 or P < .01). Furthermore, the improvement trend of CCB + statin group and valsartan + statin group was more obvious.

Conclusions

The results indicated that valsartan can reduce AF load and recurrence rate, and delay the progression of nonpermanent AF to permanent AF in multiple ways, and the effect of combination of valsartan and fluvastatin is more significant. These results provide a new direction for the integrated upstream control strategy of AF.

Office, central and ambulatory blood pressure for predicting incident atrial fibrillation in older adults

OBJECTIVES

Recently, more sophisticated blood pressure (BP) measurements, such as central and ambulatory BP (ABP), have proven to be stronger predictors of future cardiovascular disease than conventional office BP. Their predictive value for atrial fibrillation development is not established. We investigated the prognostic impact for incident atrial fibrillation of office, central and ambulatory BP measurements in a predominantly older population-based cohort.

METHODS

Of 1004 participants in the Cardiovascular Abnormalities and Brain Lesions (CABL) study, 769 in sinus rhythm with no history of atrial fibrillation or stroke (mean age 70.5 years) underwent ABP and arterial wave reflection analysis for central BP determination. Fine and Gray's proportional subdistribution hazards models were used to assess the association of BP parameters with incident atrial fibrillation.

RESULTS

During 9.5 years, atrial fibrillation occurred in 83 participants. No office BP variable showed a significant association with incident atrial fibrillation. Central SBP and central pulse pressure were marginally associated with incident atrial fibrillation in multivariate analysis. Among ABP variables, 24-h SBP [adjusted hazard ratio per 10 mmHg, 1.24; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.07--1.44; P = 0.004], daytime SBP (adjusted hazard ratio per 10 mmHg, 1.21; 95% CI 1.04--1.40; P = 0.011) and night-time SBP (adjusted hazard ratio per 10 mmHg, 1.22; 95% CI 1.07--1.39; P = 0.002) were significantly associated with incident atrial fibillation.

CONCLUSION

In a predominantly older, stroke-free community-based cohort, ABP was a better independent predictor of incident atrial fibrillation than central BP, whereas office BP was inadequate for this purpose.

Long-term blood pressure trajectories and incident atrial fibrillation in women and men: the Tromsø Study

AIMS

To explore sex-specific associations between long-term individual blood pressure (BP) patterns and risk of incident atrial fibrillation (AF) in the general population.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Blood pressure was measured in 8376 women and 7670 men who attended at least two of the three population-based Tromsø Study surveys conducted in 1986-87, 1994-95, and 2001. Participants were followed for incident AF throughout 2013. Latent mixed modelling was used to identify long-term trajectories of systolic BP and hypertension. Cox regression was used to estimate associations between the identified trajectories and incident AF. Elevated systolic BP throughout the exposure period (1986-2001) independently and differentially increased risk of AF in women and men. In women, having elevated systolic BP trajectories doubled AF risk compared to having persistently low levels, irrespective of whether systolic BP increased, decreased, or was persistently high over time, with hazard ratios of 1.88 (95% confidence interval 1.37-2.58), 2.32 (1.61-3.35), and 1.94 (1.28-2.94), respectively. In men, those with elevated systolic BP that continued to increase over time had a 50% increased AF risk: 1.51 (1.09-2.10). When compared to those persistently normotensive, women developing hypertension during the exposure period, and women and men with hypertension throughout the exposure period had 1.40 (1.06-1.86), 2.75 (1.99-3.80), and 1.36 (1.10-1.68) times increased risk of AF, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Long-term BP and hypertension trajectories were associated with increased incidence of AF in both women and men, but the associations were stronger in women.