Where to deploy pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in sub-Saharan Africa?

Costs of HIV testing services in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic literature review

OBJECTIVE

To review HIV testing services (HTS) costs in sub-Saharan Africa.

DESIGN

A systematic literature review of studies published from January 2006 to October 2020.

METHODS

We searched ten electronic databases for studies that reported estimates for cost per person tested ($pptested) and cost per HIV-positive person identified ($ppositive) in sub-Saharan Africa. We explored variations in incremental cost estimates by testing modality (health facility-based, home-based, mobile-service, self-testing, campaign-style, and stand-alone), by primary or secondary/index HTS, and by population (general population, people living with HIV, antenatal care male partner, antenatal care/postnatal women and key populations). All costs are presented in 2019US$.

RESULTS

Sixty-five studies reported 167 cost estimates. Most reported only $pptested (90%), while (10%) reported the $ppositive. Costs were highly skewed. The lowest mean $pptested was self-testing at $12.75 (median = $11.50); primary testing at $16.63 (median = $10.68); in the general population, $14.06 (median = $10.13). The highest costs were in campaign-style at $27.64 (median = $26.70), secondary/index testing at $27.52 (median = $15.85), and antenatal male partner at $47.94 (median = $55.19). Incremental $ppositive was lowest for home-based at $297.09 (median = $246.75); primary testing $352.31 (median = $157.03); in the general population, $262.89 (median: $140.13).

CONCLUSION

While many studies reported the incremental costs of different HIV testing modalities, few presented full costs. Although the $pptested estimates varied widely, the costs for stand-alone, health facility, home-based, and mobile services were comparable, while substantially higher for campaign-style HTS and the lowest for HIV self-testing. Our review informs policymakers of the affordability of various HTS to ensure universal access to HIV testing.

HIV incidence among non-migrating persons following a household migration event in Uganda

BACKGROUND

The impact of migration on HIV risk among non-migrating household members is poorly understood. We measured HIV incidence among non-migrants living in households with and without migrants in Uganda.

METHODS

We used four survey rounds of data collected from July 2011 to May 2018 from non-migrant participants aged 15-49 years in the Rakai Community Cohort Study. Non-migrants were individuals with no-migration between surveys or at the prior survey. Household migration was defined as ≥1 household member migrating into or out of the house from another community between surveys (∼18 months). Incident HIV was defined as testing HIV seropositive following a negative result. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were estimated using Poisson regression with generalized estimating equations. Analyses were stratified by gender, migration into or out of the household and the relationship between non-migrants and migrants (e.g. spouse, child).

RESULTS

About 11 318 non-migrants (5674 women) were followed for 37 320 person-years. Twenty-eight percent (6059/21 370) of non-migrant person-visits had recent migration into or out of the household, and 240 HIV incident cases were identified. Overall, non-migrants in migrant households were not at greater risk of acquiring HIV than non-migrants in households without any migration. However, men were significantly more likely to acquire HIV if their spouse had recently migrated in [adjusted IRR: 2.12; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.05-4.27] or out (adjusted IRR: 4.01; 95% CI, 2.16-7.44) compared with men with no spousal migration.

CONCLUSIONS

HIV incidence is higher among non-migrant men with migrant spouses. Targeted HIV testing and prevention interventions like pre-exposure prophylaxis could be considered for men with migrant spouses.

Cost of implementing HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis at community-based clinics in Indonesia

INTRODUCTION

Currently, Indonesia still has one of the highest rates of new HIV/AIDS infections among countries in Asia and the Pacific region. The WHO has recommended pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) as an additional HIV epidemic prevention step, which has been applied globally and related to the reduction in the number of HIV cases. However, information on the cost of implementing PrEP is rarely available in developing countries, especially in Southeast Asia. Designing a cost-effective approach to scale up PrEP and to estimate the potential budget impact requires information on the cost of implementing PrEP. This study aims to estimate the cost of implementing PrEP at community-based clinics in Indonesia.

METHODS

We collected healthcare and non-healthcare/client costs from nine community-based clinics in various cities/districts in Indonesia. The healthcare costs included data on resource utilisation and costs to deliver PrEP, divided into recurrent and capital costs using a discount rate of 3%. Non-healthcare costs included out-of-pocket costs (e.g., transportation, meals) and productivity loss by clients and accompanying person(s) in accessing PrEP. On average, we interviewed 27 clients/clinic.

RESULTS

The annual cost of providing PrEP per client is US $365.03, 39% lower than the yearly cost of antiretroviral treatment (ART) per person (approximately US $600). Drugs and non-healthcare costs contribute approximately 67% of the cost. The cost of PrEP amounts to US $292,756.45/year, covering 802 clients. The non-healthcare cost per visit at all sites never reaches more than 10% of the average monthly household expenditure.

CONCLUSIONS

The cost of providing PrEP per person is approximately US $365 and is 39% lower than the annual cost of ART per person. Lowering the cost of PrEP ARV drugs would reduce the cost. Scaling up PrEP should recognise this cost structure and strive to reach economies of scale as the intervention gains more clients while simultaneously controlling new HIV infections.

HIV incidence among non-migrating persons following a household migration event: a population-based, longitudinal study in Uganda

Background

The impact of migration on HIV risk among non-migrating household members is poorly understood. We measured HIV incidence among non-migrants living in households with and without migrants in Uganda.

Methods

We used four survey rounds of data collected from July 2011-May 2018 from non-migrant participants aged 15-49 years in the Rakai Community Cohort Study, an open, population-based cohort. Non-migrants were individuals with no evidence of migration between surveys or at the prior survey. The primary exposure, household migration, was assessed using census data and defined as ≥1 household member migrating in or out of the house from another community between surveys (∼18 months). Incident HIV cases tested positive following a negative result at the preceding visit. Incidence rate ratios (IRR) with 95% confidence intervals were estimated using Poisson regression with generalized estimating equations and robust standard errors. Analyses were stratified by gender, migration into or out of the household, and the relationship between non-migrants and migrants (i.e., any household migration, spouse, child).

Findings

Overall, 11,318 non-migrants (5,674 women) were followed for 37,320 person-years. 28% (6,059/21,370) of non-migrant person-visits had recent migration into or out of the household, and 240 HIV incident cases were identified in non-migrating household members. Overall, non-migrants in migrant households were not at greater risk of acquiring HIV. However, HIV incidence among men was significantly higher when the spouse had recently migrated in (adjIRR:2·12;95%CI:1·05-4·27) or out (adjIRR:4·01;95%CI:2·16-7·44) compared to men with no spousal migration. Women with in- and out-migrant spouses also had higher HIV incidence, but results were not statistically significant.

Interpretation

HIV incidence is higher among non-migrating persons with migrant spouses, especially men. Targeted HIV testing and prevention interventions such as pre-exposure prophylaxis could be considered for those with migrant spouses.

Funding

National Institutes of Health, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Research in context

We searched PubMed for studies focused on HIV acquisition, prevalence or sexual behaviors among non-migrants who lived with migrants in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) using search terms such as "HIV", "Emigration and Immigration", "family", "spouses", "household", "parents", and "children". Despite high levels of migration and an established association with HIV risk in SSA, there is limited data on the broader societal impacts of migration on HIV acquisition risk among non-migrant populations directly impacted by it.There has been only one published study that has previously evaluated impact of migration on HIV incidence among non-migrating persons in sub-Saharan Africa. This study, which exclusively assessed spousal migration, was conducted in Tanzania more than two decades earlier prior to HIV treatment availability and found that non-migrant men with long-term mobile partners were more than four times as likely to acquire HIV compared to men who had partners that were residents. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to examine the effect of non-spousal migration, including any household migration and child migration, on HIV incidence among non-migrants.

Added value of this study

In this study, we used data from the Rakai Community Cohort Study (RCCS), a population-based HIV surveillance cohort to measure the impact of migration on HIV incidence for non-migrant household members. The RCCS captures HIV incident events through regular, repeat HIV testing of participants and migration events through household censuses. Our study adds to the current literature by examining the general effect of migration in the household on HIV incidence in addition to child, and spousal migration. Using data from over 11,000 non-migrant individuals, we found that spousal, but not other types of household migration, substantially increased HIV risk among non-migrants, especially among men. Taken together, our results suggest that spousal migration may be associated with an increased risk of HIV acquisition in the period surrounding and immediately after spousal migration.

Implications of all the available evidence

Our findings suggest that spousal migration in or out of the household is associated with greater HIV incidence. Targeted HIV testing and prevention interventions such as pre-exposure prophylaxis could be considered for men with migrant spouses.

Implementation and resource needs for long-acting PrEP in low- and middle-income countries: a scoping review

INTRODUCTION

Several low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are preparing to introduce long-acting pre-exposure prophylaxis (LAP). Amid multiple pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) options and constrained funding, decision-makers could benefit from systematic implementation planning and aligned costs. We reviewed national costed implementation plans (CIPs) to describe relevant implementation inputs and activities (domains) for informing the costed rollout of LAP. We assessed how primary costing evidence aligned with those domains.

METHODS

We conducted a rapid review of CIPs for oral PrEP and family planning (FP) to develop a consensus of implementation domains, and a scoping review across nine electronic databases for publications on PrEP costing in LMICs between January 2010 and June 2022. We extracted cost data and assessed alignment with the implementation domains and the Global Health Costing Consortium principles.

RESULTS

We identified 15 implementation domains from four national PrEP plans and FP-CIP template; only six were in all sources. We included 66 full-text manuscripts, 10 reported LAP, 13 (20%) were primary cost studies-representing seven countries, and none of the 13 included LAP. The 13 primary cost studies included PrEP commodities (n = 12), human resources (n = 11), indirect costs (n = 11), other commodities (n = 10), demand creation (n = 9) and counselling (n = 9). Few studies costed integration into non-HIV services (n = 5), above site costs (n = 3), supply chains and logistics (n = 3) or policy and planning (n = 2), and none included the costs of target setting, health information system adaptations or implementation research. Cost units and outcomes were variable (e.g. average per person-year).

DISCUSSION

LAP planning will require updating HIV prevention policies, technical assistance for logistical and clinical support, expanding beyond HIV platforms, setting PrEP achievement targets overall and disaggregated by method, extensive supply chain and logistics planning and support, as well as updating health information systems to monitor multiple PrEP methods with different visit schedules. The 15 implementation domains were variable in reviewed studies. PrEP primary cost and budget data are necessary for new product introduction and should match implementation plans with financing.

CONCLUSIONS

As PrEP services expand to include LAP, decision-makers need a framework, tools and a process to support countries in planning the systematic rollout and costing for LAP.

Costs and Cost-Effectiveness of Biomedical, Non-Surgical HIV Prevention Interventions: A Systematic Literature Review

BACKGROUND

Considerable evidence on the costs and cost-effectiveness of biomedical, non-surgical interventions to prevent human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission has been generated over the last decade. This study aims to synthesize findings and identify remaining knowledge gaps to suggest future research priorities.

METHODS

A systematic literature review was carried out in August 2020 using the MEDLINE, Embase, Global Health and EconLit databases to retrieve economic evaluations and costing studies of oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), injectable long-acting PrEP, vaginal microbicide rings and gels, HIV vaccines and broadly neutralizing antibodies. Studies reporting costs from the provider or societal perspective were included in the analysis. Those reporting on behavioural methods of prevention, condoms and surgical approaches (voluntary medical male circumcision) were excluded. The quality of reporting of the included studies was assessed using published checklists.

RESULTS

We identified 3007 citations, of which 87 studies were retained. Most were set in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs; n = 53) and focused on the costs and/or cost-effectiveness of oral PrEP regimens (n = 70). Model-based economic evaluations were the most frequent study design; only two trial-based cost-effectiveness analyses and nine costing studies were found. Less than half of the studies provided practical details on how the intervention would be delivered by the health system, and only three of these, all in LMICs, explicitly focused on service integration and its implication for delivery costs. 'Real-world' programme delivery mechanisms and costs of intervention delivery were rarely considered. PrEP technologies were generally found to be cost-effective only when targeting high-risk subpopulations. Single-dose HIV vaccines are expected to be cost-effective for all groups despite substantial uncertainty around pricing.

CONCLUSIONS

A lack of primary, detailed and updated cost data, including above-service level costs, from a variety of settings makes it difficult to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of specific delivery modes at scale, or to evaluate strategies for services integration. Closing this evidence gap around real-world implementation is vital, not least because the strategies targeting high-risk groups that are recommended by PrEP models may incur substantially higher costs and be of limited practical feasibility in some settings.

Does health economics research align with the disease burden in the Middle East and North Africa region? A systematic review of economic evaluation studies on public health interventions

INTRODUCTION

Economic evaluation studies demonstrate the value of money in health interventions and enhance the efficiency of the healthcare system. Therefore, this study reviews published economic evaluation studies of public health interventions from 26 Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries and examines whether they addressed the region's major health problems.

METHODS

PubMed and Scopus were utilized to search for relevant articles published up to June 26, 2021. The reviewers independently selected studies, extracted data, and assessed the quality of studies using the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) checklist.

RESULTS

The search identified 61 studies. Approximately half (28 studies; 46%) were conducted in Israel and Iran. The main areas of interest for economic evaluation studies were infectious diseases (21 studies; 34%), cancers (13 studies; 21%), and genetic disorders (nine studies; 15%). Five (8%), 39 (64%), 16 (26%), and one (2%) studies were classified as excellent, high, average, and poor quality, respectively. The mean of CHEERS checklist items reported was 80.8% (SD 14%). Reporting the structure and justification of the selected model was missed in 21 studies (37%), while price and conversion rates and the analytical methods were missed in 21 studies (34%).

CONCLUSIONS

The quantity of economic evaluation studies on public health interventions in the MENA region remains low; however, the overall quality is high to excellent. There were obvious geographic gaps across countries regarding the number and quality of studies and gaps within countries concerning disease prioritization. The observed research output, however, did not reflect current and upcoming disease burden and risk factors trends in the MENA region.

Derivation of an HIV Risk Score for African Women Who Engage in Sex Work

No tool exists to stratify HIV risk in contemporary African female sex worker (FSW) populations. Data from a cohort of HIV-negative FSWs in Mombasa, Kenya from 2010 to 2017 were used to conduct a survival analysis assessing predictors of HIV infection. Stepwise regression was used to construct a multivariable model that formed the basis for the score. Seventeen HIV infections occurred over 1247 person-years of follow-up contributed by 670 women. Using depot medroxyprogesterone acetate (DMPA), having a curable sexually transmitted infection (STI), and being married contributed points to the score. HIV incidence was 0.85/100 person-years in a lower-risk group and 3.10/100 person-years in a higher-risk group. In a cohort with overall HIV incidence < 1.50/100 person-years, this risk score identified a subgroup of FSWs with HIV incidence > 3.00/100 person-years, which is the threshold used by the World Health Organization for initiating pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). If validated in an external population, this tool could be useful for targeted PrEP promotion among higher-risk FSWs.

Health economics modeling of antiretroviral interventions amongst HIV serodiscordant couples

Antiretroviral treatment (ART) and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV-serodiscordant couples, effectively reduce mortality, transmission events and influence quality of life at the expense of increased costs. We aimed to evaluate health economics of antiretroviral-based strategies for HIV-serodiscordant couples in the China context. A deterministic model of HIV evolution and transmission within a cohort of serodiscordant couples was parameterized using the real-world database of Zhoukou city and published literature. We evaluated the mid-ART (a historical strategy, initiating ART with CD4 < 500 cells/mm³), early-ART (the current strategy, offering ART regardless of CD4 cell counts) and a hypothetical strategy (early-ART combined short-term daily PrEP) versus the late-ART (the baseline strategy, initiating ART with CD4 < 350 cells/mm³) offered by 2008 national guidelines. We estimated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) and incremental cost-utility ratios (ICUR) from a societal perspective, derived by clinical benefits and HIV-caused life quality respectively, and portrayed their changes over a 0-30 year's timeframe. The model projections indicated that the antiretroviral-based interventions were more likely to obtain clinical benefits but difficult to improve quality of life, and cumulative ICER and ICUR were generally decreasing without achieving cost-saving. Scale-up access to ART for the HIV-positive among serodiscordant couples was easily fallen within the range of paying for incremental life-years and quality adjusted life years by the societal willingness. The hypothetical strategy had the potential to prevent most seroconversion events within marriages but required enormous upfront costs, thus it took a long time to reach established thresholds. The current strategy of early-ART is the most cost-effective. Clarifying the obstacles of high cost of PrEP and improving life quality for HIV-serodiscordant couples have emerged as an urgent requisition.

Potential Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of Condomless-Sex-Concentrated PrEP in KwaZulu-Natal Accounting for Drug Resistance

INTRODUCTION

Oral preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) in the form of tenofovir-disoproxil-fumarate/emtricitabine is being implemented in selected sites in South Africa. Addressing outstanding questions on PrEP cost-effectiveness can inform further implementation.

METHODS

We calibrated an individual-based model to KwaZulu-Natal to predict the impact and cost-effectiveness of PrEP, with use concentrated in periods of condomless sex, accounting for effects on drug resistance. We consider (1) PrEP availability for adolescent girls and young women aged 15-24 years and female sex workers, and (2) availability for everyone aged 15-64 years. Our primary analysis represents a level of PrEP use hypothesized to be attainable by future PrEP programs.

RESULTS

In the context of PrEP use in adults aged 15-64 years, there was a predicted 33% reduction in incidence and 36% reduction in women aged 15-24 years. PrEP was cost-effective, including in a range of sensitivity analyses, although with substantially reduced (cost) effectiveness under a policy of ART initiation with efavirenz- rather than dolutegravir-based regimens due to PrEP undermining ART effectiveness by increasing HIV drug resistance.

CONCLUSIONS

PrEP use concentrated during time periods of condomless sex has the potential to substantively impact HIV incidence and be cost-effective.

Modelling impact and cost-effectiveness of oral pre-exposure prophylaxis in 13 low-resource countries

INTRODUCTION

Oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) provision is a priority intervention for high HIV prevalence settings and populations at substantial risk of HIV acquisition. This mathematical modelling analysis estimated the impact, cost and cost-effectiveness of scaling up oral PrEP in 13 countries.

METHODS

We projected the impact and cost-effectiveness of oral PrEP between 2018 and 2030 using a combination of the Incidence Patterns Model and the Goals model. We created four PrEP rollout scenarios involving three priority populations-female sex workers (FSWs), serodiscordant couples (SDCs) and adolescent girls and young women (AGYW)-both with and without geographic prioritization. We applied the model to 13 countries (Eswatini, Ethiopia, Haiti, Kenya, Lesotho, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, Tanzania, Uganda, Zambia and Zimbabwe). The base case assumed achievement of the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS 90-90-90 antiretroviral therapy targets, 90% male circumcision coverage by 2020 and 90% efficacy and adherence levels for oral PrEP.

RESULTS

In the scenarios we examined, oral PrEP averted 3% to 8% of HIV infections across the 13 countries between 2018 and 2030. For all but three countries, more than 50% of the HIV infections averted by oral PrEP in the scenarios we examined could be obtained by rollout to FSWs and SDCs alone. For several countries, expanding oral PrEP to include medium-risk AGYW in all regions greatly increased the impact. The efficiency and impact benefits of geographic prioritization of rollout to AGYW varied across countries. Variations in cost-effectiveness across countries reflected differences in HIV incidence and expected variations in unit cost. For most countries, rolling out oral PrEP to FSWs, SDCs and geographically prioritized AGYW was not projected to have a substantial impact on the supply chain for antiretroviral drugs.

CONCLUSIONS

These modelling results can inform prioritization, target-setting and other decisions related to oral PrEP scale-up within combination prevention programmes. We caution against extensive use given limitations in cost data and implementation approaches. This analysis highlights some of the immediate challenges facing countries-for example, trade-offs between overall impact and cost-effectiveness-and emphasizes the need to improve data availability and risk assessment tools to help countries make informed decisions.

Integrating Economic Evaluation and Implementation Science to Advance the Global HIV Response

BACKGROUND

Numerous cost-effectiveness analyses have indicated good value for money from a wide array of interventions for treatment and prevention of HIV/AIDS. There is limited evidence, however, regarding how cost-effectiveness information contributes to better decision-making around investment and action in the global HIV response.

METHODS

We review challenges for economic evaluation relevant to the global HIV response and consider how the practice of cost-effectiveness analysis could integrate approaches and insights from implementation science to enhance the impact and efficiency of HIV investments.

RESULTS

In light of signals that cost-effectiveness analyses may be vulnerable to systematic bias toward overly optimistic conclusions, we emphasize two priorities for advancing the field of economic evaluation in HIV/AIDS and more broadly in global health: (1) systematic reevaluation of the cost-effectiveness literature with reference to ex-post empirical evidence on costs and effects in real-world programs and (2) development and adoption of good-practice guidelines for incorporating implementation and delivery aspects into economic evaluations. Toward the latter aim, we propose an integrative approach that focuses on comparative evaluation of strategies, which specify both technologies/interventions as well as the delivery platforms, complementary interventions, and actions needed to increase coverage, quality, and uptake of those technologies/interventions. Specific recommendations draw on several existing implementation science models that provide systematic frameworks for understanding implementation barriers and enablers, designing and choosing specific implementation and policy actions, and evaluating outcomes.

DISCUSSION

These preliminary steps aimed at bridging the divide between economic evaluation and implementation science can help to advance the practice of economic evaluation toward a science of comparative strategy evaluation.

The impact of self-selection based on HIV risk on the cost-effectiveness of preexposure prophylaxis in South Africa

OBJECTIVES

We explored the impact and cost-effectiveness of preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) provision to different populations in South Africa, with and without effective self-selection by individuals at highest risk of contracting HIV (through concurrent partnerships and/or commercial sex).

DESIGN AND METHODS

We used a previously developed HIV transmission model to analyse the epidemiological impact of PrEP provision to adolescents, young adults, pregnant women, female sex workers (FSWs) and (MSM), and data from South African PrEP programmes to estimate the cost and cost-effectiveness of PrEP (cost in 2019 USD per HIV infection averted over 20 years, 2019, 38). PrEP uptake followed data from early implementation sites, scaled-up linearly over 3 years, with target coverage set to 18% for adolescents, young adults and pregnant women, 30% for FSW and 54% for MSM.

RESULTS

The annual cost of PrEP provision ranges between $75 and $134 per person. PrEP provision adolescents and young adults, regardless of risk behaviour, will each avert 3.2--4.8% of HIV infections over 20 years; provision to high-risk individuals only has similar impact at lower total cost. The incremental cost per HIV infection averted is lower in high-risk vs. all-risk sub-populations within female adolescents ($507 vs. $4537), male adolescents ($2108 vs. $5637), young women ($1592 vs. $10 323) and young men ($2605 vs. $7715), becoming cost saving within 20 years for high-risk adolescents, young women, MSM and FSWs.

CONCLUSION

PrEP is an expensive prevention intervention but uptake by those at the highest risk of HIV infection will make it more cost-effective, and cost-saving after 14-18 years.

The impact, cost and cost-effectiveness of oral pre-exposure prophylaxis in sub-Saharan Africa: a scoping review of modelling contributions and way forward

INTRODUCTION

Oral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is a new form of HIV prevention being considered for inclusion in national prevention portfolios. Many mathematical modelling studies have been undertaken that speak to the impact, cost and cost-effectiveness of PrEP programmes. We assess the available evidence from mathematical modelling studies to inform programme planning and policy decision making for PrEP and further research directions.

METHODS

We conducted a scoping review of the published modelling literature. Articles published in English which modelled oral PrEP in sub-Saharan Africa, or non-specific settings with relevance to generalized HIV epidemic settings, were included. Data were extracted for the strategies of PrEP use modelled, and the impact, cost and cost-effectiveness of PrEP for each strategy. We define an algorithm to assess the quality and relevance of studies included, summarize the available evidence and identify the current gaps in modelling. Recommendations are generated for future modelling applications and data collection.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

We reviewed 1924 abstracts and included 44 studies spanning 2007 to 2017. Modelling has reported that PrEP can be a cost-effective addition to HIV prevention portfolios for some use cases, but also that it would not be cost-effective to fund PrEP before other prevention interventions are expanded. However, our assessment of the quality of the modelling indicates cost-effectiveness analyses failed to comply with standards of reporting for economic evaluations and the assessment of relevance highlighted that both key parameters and scenarios are now outdated. Current evidence gaps include modelling to inform service development using updated programmatic information and ex post modelling to evaluate and inform efficient deployment of resources in support of PrEP, especially among key populations, using direct evidence of cost, adherence and uptake patterns.

CONCLUSIONS

Updated modelling which more appropriately captures PrEP programme delivery, uses current intervention scenarios, and is parameterized with data from demonstration and implementation projects is needed in support of more conclusive findings and actionable recommendations for programmes and policy. Future analyses should address these issues, aligning with countries to support the needs of programme planners and decision makers for models to more directly inform programme planning and policy.

Global implementation of PrEP for HIV prevention: setting expectations for impact

INTRODUCTION

Questions remain whether HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) can be translated into a successful public health intervention, leading to a decrease in population-level HIV incidence. We use examples from HIV treatment and contraceptives to discuss expectations for PrEP uptake, adherence, and persistence and their combined impact on the epidemic.

DISCUSSION

Targets for PrEP uptake must be based on the local HIV epidemic and will depend on appropriate estimates of the key populations at risk for HIV. However, there is evidence that targets, once established, can successfully be met and that uptake may increase with awareness. Messaging around adherence should include that daily adherence is the goal (except for those MSM for whom event-driven dosing is a good fit), but perfect adherence should not be a barrier. Ideally, clients persist on PrEP for as long as they are at risk for HIV. While PrEP will be most effective when coverage is focused on high-risk populations, normalizing rather than stigmatizing PrEP will be highly beneficial.

CONCLUSIONS

While many challenges to PrEP implementation exist, we focused on the three key steps of uptake, adherence and persistence as measurable processes that can lead to improved coverage and decreased HIV incidence.

Cost-effectiveness of HIV Prevention Interventions in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Sub-Saharan Africa carries the highest HIV burden globally. It is important to understand how interventions cost-effectively fit within guidelines and implementation plans, especially in low- and middle-income settings. We reviewed the evidence from economic evaluations of HIV prevention interventions in sub-Saharan Africa to help inform the allocation of limited resources.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, Web of Science, Econ-Lit, Embase, and African Index Medicus. We included studies published between January 2009 and December 2018 reporting cost-effectiveness estimates of HIV prevention interventions. We extracted health outcomes and cost-effectiveness ratios (CERs) and evaluated study quality using the CHEERS checklist.

FINDINGS

60 studies met the full inclusion criteria. Prevention of mother-to-child transmission interventions had the lowest median CERs ($1144/HIV infection averted and $191/DALY averted), while pre-exposure prophylaxis interventions had the highest ($13,267/HIA and $799/DALY averted). Structural interventions (partner notification, cash transfer programs) have similar CERs ($3576/HIA and $392/DALY averted) to male circumcision ($2965/HIA) and were more favourable to treatment-as-prevention interventions ($7903/HIA and $890/DALY averted). Most interventions showed increased cost-effectiveness when prioritizing specific target groups based on age and risk.

INTERPRETATION

The presented cost-effectiveness information can aid policy makers and other stakeholders as they develop guidelines and programming for HIV prevention plans in resource-constrained settings.

HIV/AIDS prevention practices among military personnel in Northwest Ethiopia

The spread of HIV/AIDS is a major public health problem in military personnel in Africa. However, the epidemiological evidence regarding HIV/AIDS prevention practices among military personnel in Ethiopia remains unclear. The aim of this study was to investigate HIV/AIDS prevention practices among military personnel in Northwest Ethiopia. A cross-sectional study among military personnel (n = 410) was conducted in Northwest Ethiopia in 2015. Data were collected using a pre-tested questionnaire. Multivariable logistic regression model was fitted to ascertain factors influencing participation in HIV/AIDS prevention programs. About one-fourth (24.6%) of the military personnel had multiple sexual partners, of whom 24.7% failed to use condoms regularly when having sex with non-regular sexual partners. Majority of the sample (n = 355, 86.6%) participated in HIV/AIDS prevention programs. Military personnel who had multiple sexual partners were 6.3 times more likely to report history of non-participation in HIV/AIDS prevention programs (AOR = 6.3, CI₉₅ = 3.5-11.54). A considerable proportion of military personnel had multiple sexual partners with lower levels of condom utilization with non-regular sexual partners. The study further demonstrated misconceptions about HIV/AIDS in Ethiopian military personnel, which reduce their likelihood of participation in HIV/AIDS prevention programs. Health authorities need to strengthen and accelerate HIV/AIDS prevention programs focusing towards military personnel.

A Risk Assessment Tool for Identifying Pregnant and Postpartum Women Who May Benefit From Preexposure Prophylaxis

Background

A human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) risk assessment tool for pregnant women could identify women who would most benefit from preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) while minimizing unnecessary PrEP exposure.

Methods

Data from a prospective study of incident HIV among pregnant/postpartum women in Kenya were randomly divided into derivation (n = 654) and validation (n = 650) cohorts. A risk score was derived using multivariate Cox proportional hazards models and standard clinical prediction rules. Ability of the tool to predict maternal HIV acquisition was assessed using the area under the curve (AUC) and Brier score.

Results

The final risk score included the following predictors: having a male partner with unknown HIV status, number of lifetime sexual partners, syphilis, bacterial vaginosis (BV), and vaginal candidiasis. In the derivation cohort, AUC was 0.84 (95% confidence interval [CI], .72-.95) and each point increment in score was associated with a 52% (hazard ratio [HR], 1.52 [95% CI, 1.32-1.76]; P < .001) increase in HIV risk; the Brier score was 0.11. In the validation cohort, the score had similar AUC, Brier score, and estimated HRs. A simplified score that excluded BV and candidiasis yielded an AUC of 0.76 (95% CI, .67-.85); HIV incidence was higher among women with risk scores >6 than with scores ≤6 (7.3 vs 1.1 per 100 person-years, respectively; P < .001). Women with simplified scores >6 accounted for 16% of the population but 56% of HIV acquisitions.

Conclusions

A combination of indicators routinely assessed in antenatal clinics was predictive of HIV risk and could be used to prioritize pregnant women for PrEP.

Changing Dynamics of HIV Transmission in Côte d'Ivoire: Modeling Who Acquired and Transmitted Infections and Estimating the Impact of Past HIV Interventions (1976-2015)

INTRODUCTION

Understanding the impact of past interventions and how it affected transmission dynamics is key to guiding prevention efforts. We estimated the population-level impact of condom, antiretroviral therapy (ART), and prevention of mother-to-child transmission activities on HIV transmission and the contribution of key risk factors on HIV acquisition and transmission.

METHODS

An age-stratified dynamical model of sexual and vertical HIV transmission among the general population, female sex workers (FSW), and men who have sex with men was calibrated to detailed prevalence and intervention data. We estimated the fraction of HIV infections averted by the interventions, and the fraction of incident infections acquired and transmitted by different populations over successive 10-year periods (1976-2015).

RESULTS

Overall, condom use averted 61% (95% credible intervals: 56%-66%) of all adult infections during 1987-2015 mainly because of increased use by FSW (46% of infections averted). In comparison, ART prevented 15% (10%-19%) of adult infections during 2010-2015. As a result, FSW initially (1976-1985) contributed 95% (91%-97%) of all new infections, declining to 19% (11%-27%) during 2005-2015. Older men and clients mixing with non-FSW are currently the highest contributors to transmission. Men who have sex with men contributed ≤4% transmissions throughout. Young women (15-24 years; excluding FSW) do not transmit more infections than they acquired.

CONCLUSIONS

Early increases in condom use, mainly by FSW, have substantially reduced HIV transmission. Clients of FSWs and older men have become the main source of transmission, whereas young women remain at increased risk. Strengthening prevention and scaling-up of ART, particularly to FSW and clients of female sex workers, is important.

An Empiric HIV Risk Scoring Tool to Predict HIV-1 Acquisition in African Women

Supplemental Digital Content is Available in the Text.

Objective:

To develop and validate an HIV risk assessment tool to predict HIV acquisition among African women.

Design:

Data were analyzed from 3 randomized trials of biomedical HIV prevention interventions among African women (VOICE, HPTN 035, and FEM-PrEP).

Methods:

We implemented standard methods for the development of clinical prediction rules to generate a risk-scoring tool to predict HIV acquisition over the course of 1 year. Performance of the score was assessed through internal and external validations.

Results:

The final risk score resulting from multivariable modeling included age, married/living with a partner, partner provides financial or material support, partner has other partners, alcohol use, detection of a curable sexually transmitted infection, and herpes simplex virus 2 serostatus. Point values for each factor ranged from 0 to 2, with a maximum possible total score of 11. Scores ≥5 were associated with HIV incidence >5 per 100 person-years and identified 91% of incident HIV infections from among only 64% of women. The area under the curve (AUC) for predictive ability of the score was 0.71 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.68 to 0.74), indicating good predictive ability. Risk score performance was generally similar with internal cross-validation (AUC = 0.69; 95% CI: 0.66 to 0.73) and external validation in HPTN 035 (AUC = 0.70; 95% CI: 0.65 to 0.75) and FEM-PrEP (AUC = 0.58; 95% CI: 0.51 to 0.65).

Conclusions:

A discrete set of characteristics that can be easily assessed in clinical and research settings was predictive of HIV acquisition over 1 year. The use of a validated risk score could improve efficiency of recruitment into HIV prevention research and inform scale-up of HIV prevention strategies in women at highest risk.

PrEP as a feature in the optimal landscape of combination HIV prevention in sub-Saharan Africa

Introduction

The new WHO guidelines recommend offering pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) to people who are at substantial risk of HIV infection. However, where PrEP should be prioritised, and for which population groups, remains an open question. The HIV landscape in sub-Saharan Africa features limited prevention resources, multiple options for achieving cost saving, and epidemic heterogeneity. This paper examines what role PrEP should play in optimal prevention in this complex and dynamic landscape.

Methods

We use a model that was previously developed to capture subnational HIV transmission in sub-Saharan Africa. With this model, we can consider how prevention funds could be distributed across and within countries throughout sub-Saharan Africa to enable optimal HIV prevention (that is, avert the greatest number of infections for the lowest cost). Here, we focus on PrEP to elucidate where, and to whom, it would optimally be offered in portfolios of interventions (alongside voluntary medical male circumcision, treatment as prevention, and behaviour change communication). Over a range of continental expenditure levels, we use our model to explore prevention patterns that incorporate PrEP, exclude PrEP, or implement PrEP according to a fixed incidence threshold.

Results

At low-to-moderate levels of total prevention expenditure, we find that the optimal intervention portfolios would include PrEP in only a few regions and primarily for female sex workers (FSW). Prioritisation of PrEP would expand with increasing total expenditure, such that the optimal prevention portfolios would offer PrEP in more subnational regions and increasingly for men who have sex with men (MSM) and the lower incidence general population. The marginal benefit of including PrEP among the available interventions increases with overall expenditure by up to 14% (relative to excluding PrEP). The minimum baseline incidence for the optimal offer of PrEP declines for all population groups as expenditure increases. We find that using a fixed incidence benchmark to guide PrEP decisions would incur considerable losses in impact (up to 7%) compared with an approach that uses PrEP more flexibly in light of prevailing budget conditions.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that, for an optimal distribution of prevention resources, choices of whether to implement PrEP in subnational regions should depend on the scope for impact of other possible interventions, local incidence in population groups, and total resources available. If prevention funding were to become restricted in the future, it may be suboptimal to use PrEP according to a fixed incidence benchmark, and other prevention modalities may be more cost-effective. In contrast, expansions in funding could permit PrEP to be used to its full potential in epidemiologically driven prevention portfolios and thereby enable a more cost-effective HIV response across Africa.

Optimum resource allocation to reduce HIV incidence across sub-Saharan Africa: a mathematical modelling study

BACKGROUND

Advances in HIV prevention methods offer promise to accelerate declines in incidence, but how these methods can be deployed to have the best effect on the heterogeneous landscape and drivers of the pandemic remains unclear. We postulated that use of epidemic heterogeneity to inform the allocation of resources for combination HIV prevention could enhance the impact of HIV funding across sub-Saharan Africa.

METHODS

We developed a compartmental mathematical model of HIV transmission and disease progression by risk group to subnational resolution in 18 countries, capturing 80% of the adult HIV burden in sub-Saharan Africa. Adults aged 15-49 years were grouped by risk of HIV acquisition and transmission, and those older than 50 years were assumed to have negligible risk. For each top-level administrative division, we calibrated the model to historical data for HIV prevalence, sexual behaviours, treatment scale-up, and demographics. We then evaluated four strategies for allocation of prevention funding over a 15 year period from 2016 to 2030, which exploited epidemic differences between subnational regions to varying degrees.

FINDINGS

For a $US20 billion representative expenditure over the 15 year period, scale-up of prevention along present funding channels could avert 5·3 million infections relative to no scale-up. Prioritisation of key populations could avert 3·7 million more infections than present funding channels, and additional prioritisation by within-country geography could avert 400 000 more infections. Removal of national constraints could avert a further 600 000 infections. Risk prioritisation has greater marginal impact than geographical prioritisation across multiple expenditure levels. However, targeting by both risk and geography is best for total impact and could achieve gains of up to three times more than present channels. A shift from the present pattern to the optimum pattern would rebalance resources towards more cost-effective interventions and emerging epidemics.

INTERPRETATION

If domestic and international funders were to align strategically to build an aggregate funding pattern that is guided by the epidemiology of HIV, and particularly by the emerging understanding of local dynamics and epidemic drivers, more cost-effective and impactful HIV prevention investments could be achieved across sub-Saharan Africa.

FUNDING

The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Potential impact of multiple interventions on HIV incidence in a hyperendemic region in Western Kenya: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Multiple prevention interventions, including early antiretroviral therapy initiation, may reduce HIV incidence in hyperendemic settings. Our aim was to predict the short-term impact of various single and combined interventions on HIV spreading in the adult population of Ndhiwa subcounty (Nyanza Province, Kenya).

METHODS

A mathematical model was used with data on adults (15-59 years) from the Ndhiwa HIV Impact in Population Survey to compare the impacts on HIV prevalence, HIV incidence rate, and population viral load suppression of various interventions. These interventions included: improving the cascade of care (use of three guidelines), increasing voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC), and implementing pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) use among HIV-uninfected women.

RESULTS

After four years, improving separately the cascade of care under the WHO 2013 guidelines and under the treat-all strategy would reduce the overall HIV incidence rate by 46 and 58 %, respectively, vs. the baseline rate, and by 35 and 49 %, respectively, vs. the implementation of the current Kenyan guidelines. With conservative and optimistic scenarios, VMMC and PrEP would reduce the HIV incidence rate by 15-25 % and 22-28 % vs. the baseline, respectively. Combining the WHO 2013 guidelines with VMMC would reduce the HIV incidence rate by 35-56 % and combining the treat-all strategy with VMMC would reduce it by 49-65 %. Combining the WHO 2013 guidelines, VMMC, and PrEP would reduce the HIV incidence rate by 46-67 %.

CONCLUSIONS

The impacts of the WHO 2013 guidelines and the treat-all strategy were relatively close; their implementation is desirable to reduce HIV spread. Combining several strategies is promising in adult populations of hyperendemic areas but requires regular, reliable, and costly monitoring.

Parameterising User Uptake in Economic Evaluations: The role of discrete choice experiments

Model-based economic evaluations of new interventions have shown that user behaviour (uptake) is a critical driver of overall impact achieved. However, early economic evaluations, prior to introduction, often rely on assumed levels of uptake based on expert opinion or uptake of similar interventions. In addition to the likely uncertainty surrounding these uptake assumptions, they also do not allow for uptake to be a function of product, intervention, or user characteristics. This letter proposes using uptake projections from discrete choice experiments (DCE) to better parameterize uptake and substitution in cost-effectiveness models. A simple impact model is developed and illustrated using an example from the HIV prevention field in South Africa. Comparison between the conventional approach and the DCE-based approach shows that, in our example, DCE-based impact predictions varied by up to 50% from conventional estimates and provided far more nuanced projections. In the absence of observed uptake data and to model the effect of variations in intervention characteristics, DCE-based uptake predictions are likely to greatly improve models parameterizing uptake solely based on expert opinion. This is particularly important for global and national level decision making around introducing new and probably more expensive interventions, particularly where resources are most constrained.

Dynamic Transmission Economic Evaluation of Infectious Disease Interventions in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A Systematic Literature Review

Economic evaluation using dynamic transmission models is important for capturing the indirect effects of infectious disease interventions. We examine the use of these methods in low- and middle-income countries, where infectious diseases constitute a major burden. This review is comprised of two parts: (1) a summary of dynamic transmission economic evaluations across all disease areas published between 2011 and mid-2014 and (2) an in-depth review of mosquito-borne disease studies focusing on health economic methods and reporting. Studies were identified through a systematic search of the MEDLINE database and supplemented by reference list screening. Fifty-seven studies were eligible for inclusion in the all-disease review. The most common subject disease was HIV/AIDS, followed by malaria. A diverse range of modelling methods, outcome metrics and sensitivity analyses were used, indicating little standardisation. Seventeen studies were included in the mosquito-borne disease review. With notable exceptions, most studies did not employ economic evaluation methods beyond calculating a cost-effectiveness ratio or net benefit. Many did not adhere to health care economic evaluations reporting guidelines, particularly with respect to full model reporting and uncertainty analysis. We present a summary of the state-of-the-art and offer recommendations for improved implementation and reporting of health economic methods in this crossover discipline.

How Stigma Surrounding the Use of HIV Preexposure Prophylaxis Undermines Prevention and Pleasure: A Call to Destigmatize "Truvada Whores"

Antiretroviral preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP; emtricitabine and tenofovir disoproxil fumarate [Truvada]) prevents HIV without penalizing sexual pleasure, and may even enhance pleasure (e.g., by reducing HIV-related anxiety). However, concern about sexual risk behavior increasing with PrEP use (risk compensation) and corresponding stereotypes of promiscuity may undermine PrEP's preventive potential. In this commentary, we review literature on sexual behavior change accompanying PrEP use, discuss risk compensation concerns and the "Truvada whore" stereotype as PrEP barriers, question the appropriateness of restricting PrEP access because of risk compensation, and consider sexual pleasure as a benefit of PrEP, an acceptable motive for seeking PrEP, and a core element of health. It is essential for science to trump stereotypes and sex-negative messaging in guiding decision-making affecting PrEP access and uptake.

Cost-effectiveness of pre-exposure prophylaxis targeted to high-risk serodiscordant couples as a bridge to sustained ART use in Kampala, Uganda

INTRODUCTION

Despite scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) for treating HIV-positive persons, HIV incidence remains elevated among those at high risk such as persons in serodiscordant partnerships. Antiretrovirals taken by HIV-negative persons as pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) has the potential to avert infections in individuals in serodiscordant partnerships. Evaluating the cost-effectiveness of implementing time-limited PrEP as a short-term bridge during the first six months of ART for the HIV-positive partner to prevent HIV transmission compared to increasing ART coverage is crucial to informing policy-makers considering PrEP implementation.

METHODS

To estimate the real world delivery costs of PrEP, we conducted micro-costing and time and motion analyses in an open-label prospective study of PrEP and ART delivery targeted to high-risk serodiscordant couples in Uganda (the Partners Demonstration Project). The cost (in USD, in 2012) of PrEP and ART for serodiscordant couples was assessed, with and without research components, in the study setting. Using Ministry of Health costs, the cost of PrEP and ART provision within a government programme was estimated, as was the cost of providing PrEP in addition to ART. We parameterized an HIV transmission model to estimate the health and economic impacts of 1) PrEP and ART targeted to high-risk serodiscordant couples in the context of current ART use and 2) increasing ART coverage to 55% of HIV-positive persons with CD4 ≤500 cells/µL without PrEP. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) per HIV infection and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted were calculated over 10 years.

RESULTS

The annual cost of PrEP and ART delivery for serodiscordant couples was $1058 per couple in the study setting and $453 in the government setting. The portion of the programme cost due to PrEP was $408 and $92 per couple per year in the study and government settings, respectively. Over 10 years, a programme of PrEP and ART for high-risk serodiscordant couples was projected to avert 43% of HIV infections compared to current practice with an ICER of $1340 per infection averted. This was comparable to ART expansion alone, which would avert 37% of infections with an ICER of $1452.

CONCLUSIONS

Using Uganda's gross domestic product per capita of $1681 as a threshold, PrEP and ART for high-risk persons have the potential for synergistic action and are cost-effective in preventing HIV infections in high prevalence settings. The annual cost of PrEP in this programme is less than $100 per serodiscordant couple if implemented in public clinics.

Pre-exposure prophylaxis in Southern Africa: feasible or not?

INTRODUCTION

Southern and Eastern Africa bear the brunt of the AIDS epidemic, and current prevention interventions remain inadequate. Antiretroviral-based pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is gaining momentum as an effective prevention intervention.

DISCUSSION

Discussions have been started on how this strategy could be employed in Africa such that the populations most in need can be reached urgently for the greatest impact. This requires the selection of specific risk groups and service environments in which PrEP can be distributed safely and cost effectively while being mindful of any ethical issues.

CONCLUSIONS

Given the need for an integrated public health approach to this, a number of potential populations and opportunities for PrEP distribution exist and are discussed in this commentary.

The promises and challenges of pre-exposure prophylaxis as part of the emerging paradigm of combination HIV prevention

INTRODUCTION

Towards the end of the twentieth century, significant success was achieved in reducing incidence in several global HIV epidemics through ongoing prevention strategies. However, further progress in risk reduction was uncertain. For one thing, it was clear that social vulnerability had to be addressed, through research on interventions addressing health systems and other structural barriers. As soon as antiretroviral treatment became available, researchers started to conceive that antiretrovirals might play a role in decreasing either susceptibility in uninfected people or infectiousness among people living with HIV. In this paper we focus on the origin, present status, and potential contribution of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) within the combination HIV prevention framework.

DISCUSSION

After a phase of controversy, PrEP efficacy trials took off. By 2015, daily oral PrEP, using tenofovir alone or in combination with emtricitabine, has been proven efficacious, though efficacy seems heavily contingent upon adherence to pill uptake. Initial demonstration projects after release of efficacy results have shown that PrEP can be implemented in real settings and adherence can be high, leading to high effectiveness. Despite its substantial potential, beliefs persist about unfeasibility in real-life settings due to stigma, cost, adherence, and potential risk compensation barriers.

CONCLUSIONS

The strategic synergy of behavioural change communication, biomedical strategies (including PrEP), and structural programmes is providing the basis for the combination HIV prevention framework. If PrEP is to ever become a key component of that framework, several negative beliefs must be confronted based on emerging evidence; moreover, research gaps regarding PrEP implementation must be filled, and appropriate prioritization strategies must be set up. Those challenges are significant, proportional to the impact that PrEP implementation may have in the global response to HIV.

How much demand for New HIV prevention technologies can we really expect? Results from a discrete choice experiment in South Africa

Background

For the first time in the history of HIV, new bio-medical interventions have been shown to be effective in preventing HIV transmission. For these new HIV prevention technologies (NPTs) to have an impact on the epidemic, they must be widely used. This study uses a discrete choice experiment (DCE) to: understand the relative strength of women’s preferences for product characteristics, understand the implications for substitution away from male condoms, and inform realistic modelling of their potential impact and cost-effectiveness.

Methods

A DCE was conducted among 1017 women in urban South Africa. Women were presented with choices between potential women’s NPTs (microbicides, diaphragm, female condom) and ‘what I did last time’ (use or not use a condom) with different HIV and pregnancy prevention effectiveness’ and prices. Choice probabilities are estimated using the nested logit model and used to predict uptake.

Results

In this high HIV prevalence setting, HIV prevention effectiveness is the main driver of uptake followed by pregnancy prevention effectiveness. For example a microbicide with poor effectiveness would have niche appeal at just 11% predicted uptake, while a highly effective microbicide (95% effective against HIV and pregnancy) would have far wider appeal (56% predicted uptake). Though women who reported not using condoms were more likely to choose the NPTs, at current very high rates of male condom use in South Africa (60%), about half of microbicide uptake is projected to be among those currently not using condoms.

Conclusions

Women are very interested in NPTs, especially if highly effective in preventing HIV and pregnancy. Women in greatest need were also most likely to switch to the new products. Where products are not yet available for distribution, proxy data, such as that generated by DCEs, can bring realism to overly optimistic uptake scenarios found in many current impact models.