Evaluation of the economic impact of California's Tobacco Control Program: a dynamic model approach

Illuminating a Path Forward for Tobacco Nation: Projected Impacts of Recommended Policies on Geographic Disparities

Introduction

This study quantifies the impacts of strengthening 2 tobacco control policies in "Tobacco Nation," a region of the United States (U.S.) with persistently higher smoking rates and weaker tobacco control policies than the rest of the US, despite high levels of support for tobacco control policies.

Methods

We used a microsimulation model, ModelHealthTM:Tobacco, to project smoking-attributable (SA) outcomes in Tobacco Nation states and the U.S. from 2022 to 2041 under 2 scenarios: (1) no policy change and (2) a simultaneous increase in cigarette taxes by $1.50 and in tobacco control expenditures to the CDC-recommended level for each state. The simulation uses state-specific data to simulate changes in cigarette smoking as individuals age and the health and economic consequences of current or former smoking. We simulated 500 000 individuals for each Tobacco Nation state and the U.S. overall, representative of each population.

Results

Over the next 20 years, without policy changes, disparities in cigarette smoking will persist between Tobacco Nation and other U.S. states. However, compared to a scenario with no policy change, the simulated policies would lead to a 3.5% greater reduction in adult smoking prevalence, 2361 fewer SA deaths per million persons, and $334M saved in healthcare expenditures per million persons in Tobacco Nation. State-level findings demonstrate similar impacts.

Conclusions

The simulations indicate that the simulated policies could substantially reduce cigarette smoking disparities between Tobacco Nation and other U.S. states. These findings can inform tobacco control advocacy and policy efforts to advance policies that align with evidence and Tobacco Nation residents' wishes.

Return on investment of Canadian tobacco control policies implemented between 2001 and 2016

OBJECTIVES

To determine the return on investment (ROI) associated with tobacco control policies implemented between 2001 and 2016 in Canada.

METHODS

Canadian expenditures on tobacco policies were collected from government sources. The economic benefits considered in our analyses (decrease in healthcare costs, productivity costs and monetised life years lost, as well as tax revenues) were based on the changes in smoking prevalence and attributable deaths derived from the SimSmoke simulation model for the period 2001-2016. The net economic benefit (monetised benefits minus expenditures) and ROI associated with these policies were determined from the government and societal perspectives. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to check the robustness of the result. Costs were expressed in 2019 Canadian dollars.

RESULTS

The total of provincial and federal expenditures associated with the implementation of tobacco control policies in Canada from 2001 through 2016 was estimated at $2.4 billion. Total economic benefits from these policies during that time were calculated at $49.2 billion from the government perspective and at $54.2 billion from the societal perspective. The corresponding ROIs were $19.8 and $21.9 for every dollar invested. Sensitivity analyses yielded ROI values ranging from $16.3 to $28.3 for every dollar invested depending on the analyses and perspective.

CONCLUSIONS

This analysis has found that the costs to implement the Canadian tobacco policies between 2001 and 2016 were far outweighed by the monetised value associated with the benefits of these policies, making a powerful case for the investment in tobacco control policies.

Simulated impacts and potential cost effectiveness of Communities Putting Prevention to Work: Tobacco control interventions in 21 U.S. communities, 2010-2020

In 2010, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) funded communities to implement policy, systems, and environmental (PSE) changes under the Communities Putting Prevention to Work (CPPW) program to make it easier for people to make healthier choices to prevent chronic disease. Twenty-one of 50 funded communities implemented interventions intended to reduce tobacco use. To examine the potential cost-effectiveness of tobacco control changes implemented under CPPW from a healthcare system perspective, we compared program cost estimates with estimates of potential impacts. We used an existing simulation model, the Prevention Impacts Simulation Model (PRISM), to estimate the potential cumulative impact of CPPW tobacco interventions on deaths and medical costs averted through 2020. We collected data on the costs to implement CPPW tobacco interventions from 2010 to 2013. We adjusted all costs to 2010 dollars. CPPW tobacco interventions cost $130.5 million across all communities, with an average community cost of $6.2 million. We found $735 million in potentially averted medical costs cumulatively from 2010 through 2020 because of the CPPW-supported interventions. If the CPPW tobacco control PSE changes are sustained through 2020 without additional funding after 2013, we find that medical costs averted will likely exceed program costs by $604 million. Our results suggest that the medical costs averted through 2020 may more than offset the initial investment in CPPW tobacco control interventions, implying that such interventions may be cost saving, especially over the long term.

Economic Impact of Financial Incentives and Mailing Nicotine Patches to Help Medicaid Smokers Quit Smoking: A Cost-Benefit Analysis

An RCT designed to increase Medicaid smokers' quitting success was conducted in California during 2012-2013. In the trial, alternative cessation treatment strategies were embedded in the state's ongoing quitline services. It found that modest financial incentives of up to $60 per participant and sending nicotine patches induced significantly higher cessation rates compared with usual care alone and usual care plus nicotine patches. Building upon that study, this study assessed potential population-level costs and benefits of integrating financial incentives and nicotine patches in a quitline setting for Medicaid smokers. A cost-benefit analysis was undertaken from the Medicaid program's perspective. The Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model was used to simulate future healthcare expenditures over a 10-year horizon for each treatment strategy for a study cohort of California Medicaid enrollees who were aged 35-64 years in 2014 (n=2,452,000). To simulate potential population-level benefits under each treatment strategy, each treatment was applied to all active smokers in the study cohort (n=478,300). Sensitivity analyses were conducted by varying key parameters, such as cessation costs, discount rate, relapse rates, and time horizon. Adding both financial incentives and nicotine patches to usual quitline care would result in $15 million net savings over 10 years, with a benefit-cost ratio of 1.30 compared with the usual care plus nicotine patches strategy. It would yield $44 million net savings, with a benefit-cost ratio of 1.90 compared with usual care alone. The strategy of providing financial incentives and mailing nicotine patches directly to Medicaid smokers who call the quitline is cost saving. SUPPLEMENT INFORMATION: This article is part of a supplement entitled Advancing Smoking Cessation in California's Medicaid Population, which is sponsored by the California Department of Public Health.

Country-specific costs of implementing the WHO FCTC tobacco control policies and potential financing sources

Background

One of the major obstacles to the full implementation of the World Health Organization (WHO) Framework Convention of Tobacco Control (FCTC) tobacco control measures is the lack of sustainable financing resources.

Goal

To update and simulate country-specific indicators that are highly relevant to the costs and financial resources of the treaty policy implementation. We also developed an Excel tool for simulation and assessed the aggregated-level indicators by the 2016 World Bank income groups.

Approaches

Using mostly 2016 data or 2014–15 data if 2016 one are not available, we updated five indicators relevant to the treaty implementation, which are the gap between current and desirable policy implementation, cigarette affordability, the costs of implementing best- buy tobacco control policies, the number of smoking-attributable deaths, and the simulated tax revenue resulting from a $1 tax increase. We also aggregated indicators and simulation results by the World Bank income groups, encompassing the five indicators and the reduction in smoking and in attributable deaths due to a hypothetical 1I$ tax increase. Finally, the policy implementation cost was compared with tax revenue and revenue increases.

Findings

As of 2016, smoking remains one of the leading causes of premature deaths worldwide while the implementation of best-buy tobacco control policies was below the recommended levels. Meanwhile, there was room to further increase cigarette taxes and prices, as cigarettes remained affordable in many countries. The total costs of implementing best-buy policies in the next 15 years merely account for 8.3% of the 2016 excise tax revenue, indicating that a small proportion of annual tax revenue could fund the implementation of tobacco control policies recommended by the WHO FCTC.

Conclusions

Increasing taxes could have a multiplier impact on curbing tobacco use through aiding the implementation of the WHO FCTC.

Population Modeling of Modified Risk Tobacco Products Accounting for Smoking Reduction and Gradual Transitions of Relative Risk

Introduction

As suggested by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) Modified Risk Tobacco Product (MRTP) Applications Draft Guidance, we developed a statistical model based on public data to explore the effect on population mortality of an MRTP resulting in reduced conventional cigarette smoking. Many cigarette smokers who try an MRTP persist as dual users while smoking fewer conventional cigarettes per day (CPD). Lower-CPD smokers have lower mortality risk based on large cohort studies. However, with little data on the effect of smoking reduction on mortality, predictive modeling is needed.

Methods

We generalize prior assumptions of gradual, exponential decay of Excess Risk (ER) of death, relative to never-smokers, after quitting or reducing CPD. The same age-dependent slopes are applied to all transitions, including initiation to conventional cigarettes and to a second product (MRTP). A Monte Carlo simulation model generates random individual product use histories, including CPD, to project cumulative deaths through 2060 in a population with versus without the MRTP. Transitions are modeled to and from dual use, which affects CPD and cigarette quit rates, and to MRTP use only.

Results

Results in a hypothetical scenario showed high sensitivity of long-run mortality to CPD reduction levels and moderate sensitivity to ER transition rates.

Conclusions

Models to project population effects of an MRTP should account for possible mortality effects of reduced smoking among dual users. In addition, studies should follow dual-user CPD histories and quit rates over long time periods to clarify long-term usage patterns and thereby improve health impact projections.

Implications

We simulated mortality effects of a hypothetical MRTP accounting for cigarette smoking reduction by smokers who add MRTP use. Data on relative mortality risk versus CPD suggest that this reduction may have a substantial effect on mortality rates, unaccounted for in other models. This effect is weighed with additional hypothetical effects in an example.

Computational Models Used to Assess US Tobacco Control Policies

INTRODUCTION

Simulation models can be used to evaluate existing and potential tobacco control interventions, including policies. The purpose of this systematic review was to synthesize evidence from computational models used to project population-level effects of tobacco control interventions. We provide recommendations to strengthen simulation models that evaluate tobacco control interventions.

METHODS

Studies were eligible for review if they employed a computational model to predict the expected effects of a non-clinical US-based tobacco control intervention. We searched five electronic databases on July 1, 2013 with no date restrictions and synthesized studies qualitatively.

RESULTS

Six primary non-clinical intervention types were examined across the 40 studies: taxation, youth prevention, smoke-free policies, mass media campaigns, marketing/advertising restrictions, and product regulation. Simulation models demonstrated the independent and combined effects of these interventions on decreasing projected future smoking prevalence. Taxation effects were the most robust, as studies examining other interventions exhibited substantial heterogeneity with regard to the outcomes and specific policies examined across models.

CONCLUSIONS

Models should project the impact of interventions on overall tobacco use, including nicotine delivery product use, to estimate preventable health and cost-saving outcomes. Model validation, transparency, more sophisticated models, and modeling policy interactions are also needed to inform policymakers to make decisions that will minimize harm and maximize health.

IMPLICATIONS

In this systematic review, evidence from multiple studies demonstrated the independent effect of taxation on decreasing future smoking prevalence, and models for other tobacco control interventions showed that these strategies are expected to decrease smoking, benefit population health, and are reasonable to implement from a cost perspective. Our recommendations aim to help policymakers and researchers minimize harm and maximize overall population-level health benefits by considering the real-world context in which tobacco control interventions are implemented.

Intervention Costs From Communities Putting Prevention to Work

Introduction

In 2010, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention funded 50 communities to participate in the Communities Putting Prevention to Work (CPPW) program. CPPW supported community-based approaches to prevent or delay chronic disease and promote wellness by reducing tobacco use and obesity. We collected the direct costs of CPPW for the 44 communities funded through the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) and analyzed costs per person reached for all CPPW interventions and by intervention category.

Methods

From 2011 through 2013, we collected quarterly data on costs from the 44 CPPW ARRA-funded communities. We estimated CPPW program costs as spending on labor; consultants; materials, travel, and services; overhead activities; and partners plus the value of in-kind donations. We estimated communities’ costs per person reached for each intervention implemented and compared cost allocations across communities that focused on reducing tobacco use, or obesity, or both. Analyses were conducted in 2014; costs are reported in 2012 dollars.

Results

The largest share of CPPW total costs of $363 million supported interventions in communities that focused on obesity ($228 million). Average costs per person reached were less than $5 for 84% of tobacco-related interventions, 88% of nutrition interventions, and 89% of physical activity interventions. Costs per person reached were highest for social support and services interventions, almost $3 for tobacco‑use interventions and $1 for obesity prevention interventions.

Conclusions

CPPW cost estimates are useful for comparing intervention cost per person reached with health outcomes and for addressing how community health intervention costs vary by type of intervention and by community size.

Retrospective analysis of changing characteristics of treatment-seeking smokers: implications for further reducing smoking prevalence

OBJECTIVE

The goal of the current study was to empirically compare successive cohorts of treatment-seeking smokers who enrolled in randomised clinical trials in a region of the USA characterised by strong tobacco control policies and low smoking prevalence, over the past three decades.

DESIGN

Retrospective treatment cohort comparison.

SETTING

Data were collected from 9 randomised clinical trials conducted at Stanford University and the University of California, San Francisco, between 1990 and 2013.

PARTICIPANTS

Data from a total of 2083 participants were included (Stanford, n=1356; University of California San Francisco, n=727).

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOMES

One-way analysis of variance and covariance, χ(2) and logistic regression analyses were used to examine relations between nicotine dependence, cigarettes per day, depressive symptoms and demographic characteristics among study cohorts.

RESULTS

Similar trends were observed at both settings. When compared to earlier trials, participants in more recent trials smoked fewer cigarettes, were less nicotine-dependent, reported more depressive symptoms, were more likely to be male and more likely to be from a minority ethnic/racial group, than those enrolled in initial trials (all p's<0.05). Analysis of covariances revealed that cigarettes per day, nicotine dependence and current depressive symptom scores were each significantly related to trial (all p's<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest that more recent smoking cessation treatment-seeking cohorts in a low prevalence region were characterised by less smoking severity, more severe symptoms of depression and were more likely to be male and from a minority racial/ethnic group.

Mathematical Modeling in Tobacco Control Research: Initial Results From a Systematic Review

OBJECTIVES

The US Food and Drug Administration has expressed interest in using mathematical models to evaluate potential tobacco policies. The goal of this systematic review was to synthesize data from tobacco control studies that employ mathematical models.

METHODS

We searched five electronic databases on July 1, 2013 to identify published studies that used a mathematical model to project a tobacco-related outcome and developed a data extraction form based on the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Good Research Practices. We developed an organizational framework to categorize these studies and identify models employed across multiple papers. We synthesized results qualitatively, providing a descriptive synthesis of included studies.

RESULTS

The 263 studies in this review were heterogeneous with regard to their methodologies and aims. We used the organizational framework to categorize each study according to its objective and map the objective to a model outcome. We identified two types of study objectives (trend and policy/intervention) and three types of model outcomes (change in tobacco use behavior, change in tobacco-related morbidity or mortality, and economic impact). Eighteen models were used across 118 studies.

CONCLUSIONS

This paper extends conventional systematic review methods to characterize a body of literature on mathematical modeling in tobacco control. The findings of this synthesis can inform the development of new models and the improvement of existing models, strengthening the ability of researchers to accurately project future tobacco-related trends and evaluate potential tobacco control policies and interventions. These findings can also help decision-makers to identify and become oriented with models relevant to their work.

Estimating the benefits of public health policies that reduce harmful consumption

For products such as tobacco and junk food, where policy interventions are often designed to decrease consumption, affected consumers gain utility from improvements in lifetime health and longevity but also lose utility associated with the activity of consuming the product. In the case of anti-smoking policies, even though published estimates of gross health and longevity benefits are up to 900 times higher than the net consumer benefits suggested by a more direct willingness-to-pay estimation approach, there is little recognition in the cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness literature that gross estimates will overstate intrapersonal welfare improvements when utility losses are not netted out. This paper presents a general framework for analyzing policies that are designed to reduce inefficiently high consumption and provides a rule of thumb for the relationship between net and gross consumer welfare effects: where there exists a plausible estimate of the tax that would allow consumers to fully internalize health costs, the ratio of the tax to the per-unit long-term cost can provide an upper bound on the ratio of net to gross benefits.

Youth indoor tanning and skin cancer prevention: lessons from tobacco control

Youth use of ultraviolet-emitting indoor tanning beds represents a present and emerging public health crisis. Nearly 30% of white female high school students report tanning indoors, and a quarter of high school tanners have used a tanning bed more than 20 times in the past year. Despite the significant health risks of tanning beds, including potentially deadly melanoma and eye problems, limited actions have been taken in the U.S. to protect youth. Tobacco control policies and campaigns, which have sharply reduced youth smoking, may provide a useful framework to control indoor tanning among young people. This article describes several evidence-based tobacco control strategies with potential applicability to indoor tanning within the context of the U.S. Further, current tobacco control policies and current indoor tanning policies in the U.S. are compared, and recommendations on how to curtail youth indoor tanning are discussed.

Impact of Broadened Coverage of Smoking Cessation Treatments on Cardiovascular Disease

One third of all premature tobacco-attributable deaths are due to CVD and tobacco is the cause of approximately 15% of all CVD attributable. Primary and secondary prevention strategies that combine evidenced based tobacco dependence treatment programs along with cigarette taxes and media campaigns can result in hundreds of thousand of fewer excess deaths from smoking attributable CVD. Expanded insurance from both commercial and public insurers will be greatly expanded by the recently enacted federal health care reform but barriers to reducing the avoidable morbidity and mortality that is due to tobacco use is impacted by the potential for remaining financial barriers to full insurance coverage from Americans in regions of the country with the highest smoking prevalence rates.

The net effect of smoking on healthcare and welfare costs. A cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To study the net economic effect of smoking on society.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING

Eastern Finland.

PATIENTS

We studied mortality, paid income and tobacco taxes, and the cumulative costs due to pensions and medical care among tobacco smoking and non-smoking individuals in a 27-year prospective cohort study of 1976 men from Eastern Finland. These individuals were 54-60 years old at the beginning of the follow-up.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

The net contribution of smoking versus non-smoking individuals to public finance balance (euros).

RESULTS

Smoking was associated with a greater mean annual healthcare cost of €1600 per living individual during follow-up. However, due to a shorter lifespan of 8.6 years, smokers' mean total healthcare costs during the entire study period were actually €4700 lower than for non-smokers. For the same reason, each smoker missed 7.3 years (€126 850) of pension. Overall, smokers' average net contribution to the public finance balance was €133 800 greater per individual compared with non-smokers. However, if each lost quality adjusted life year is considered to be worth €22 200, the net effect is reversed to be €70 200 (€71.600 when adjusted with propensity score) per individual in favour of non-smoking.

CONCLUSIONS

Smoking was associated with a moderate decrease in healthcare costs, and a marked decrease in pension costs due to increased mortality. However, when a monetary value for life years lost was taken into account, the beneficial net effect of non-smoking to society was about €70 000 per individual.