Home treatment of COPD exacerbation selected by DECAF score: a non-inferiority, randomised controlled trial and economic evaluation

Remote Vital Sign Monitoring in Admission Avoidance Hospital at Home: A Systematic Review

OBJECTIVES

To examine randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of "hospital at home" (HAH) for admission avoidance in adults presenting with acute physical illness to identify the use of vital sign monitoring approaches and evidence for their effectiveness.

DESIGN

Systematic review.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

This review compared strategies for vital sign monitoring in admission avoidance HAH for adults presenting with acute physical illness. Vital sign monitoring can support HAH acute multidisciplinary care by contributing to safety, determining requirement of further assessment, and guiding clinical decisions. There are a wide range of systems currently available, including reliable and automated continuous remote monitoring using wearable devices.

METHODS

Eligible studies were identified through updated database and trial registries searches (March 2, 2016, to February 15, 2023), and existing systematic reviews. Risk of bias was assessed using the Cochrane risk of bias 2 tool. Random effects meta-analyses were performed, and narrative summaries provided stratified by vital sign monitoring approach.

RESULTS

Twenty-one eligible RCTs (3459 participants) were identified. Two approaches to vital sign monitoring were characterized: manual and automated. Reporting was insufficient in the majority of studies for classification. For HAH compared to hospital care, 6-monthly mortality risk ratio (RR) was 0.94 (95% CI 0.78-1.12), 3-monthly readmission to hospital RR 1.02 (0.77-1.35), and length of stay mean difference 1.91 days (0.71-3.12). Readmission to hospital was reduced in the automated monitoring subgroup (RR 0.30 95% CI 0.11-0.86).

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

This review highlights gaps in the reporting and evidence base informing remote vital sign monitoring in alternatives to admission for acute illness, despite expanding implementation in clinical practice. Although continuous vital sign monitoring using wearable devices may offer added benefit, its use in existing RCTs is limited. Recommendations for the implementation and evaluation of remote monitoring in future clinical trials are proposed.

Comparison of BAP65, DECAF, PEARL, and MEWS Scores in Predicting Respiratory Support Need in Hospitalized Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease Patients

OBJECTIVE

Prognostic models aid clinical practice with decision-making on treatment and hospitalization in exacerbation of chronic obstructive lung disease (ECOPD). Although there are many studies with prognostic models, diagnostic accuracy is variable within and between models.

SUBJECTS AND METHODS

We compared the prognostic performance of the BAP65 score, DECAF score, PEARL score, and modified early warning score (MEWS) in hospitalized patients with ECOPD, to estimate ventilatory support need.

RESULTS

This cross-sectional study consisted of 139 patients. Patients in need of noninvasive or invasive mechanical ventilation support are grouped as ventilatory support groups (n = 54). Comparison between receiver operating characteristic curves revealed that the DECAF score is significantly superior to the PEARL score (p = 0.04) in discriminating patients in need of ventilatory support. DECAF score with a cutoff value of 1 presented the highest sensitivity and BAP65 score with a cutoff value of 2 presented the highest specificity in predicting ventilatory support need. Multivariable analysis revealed that gender played a significant role in COPD exacerbation outcome, and arterial pCO2 and RDW measurements were also predictors of ventilatory support need. Within severity indexes, only the DECAF score was independently associated with the outcome. One-point increase in DECAF score created a 1.43 times higher risk of ventilatory support need. All severity indexes showed a correlation with age, comorbidity index, and dyspnea. BAP65 and DECAF scores also showed a correlation with length of stay.

CONCLUSION

Objective and practical classifications are needed by clinicians to assess prognosis and initiate treatment accordingly. DECAF score is a strong candidate among severity indexes.

The value of admission avoidance: cost-consequence analysis of one-year activity in a consolidated service

BACKGROUND

Many advantages of hospital at home (HaH), as a modality of acute care, have been highlighted, but controversies exist regarding the cost-benefit trade-offs. The objective is to assess health outcomes and analytical costs of hospital avoidance (HaH-HA) in a consolidated service with over ten years of delivery of HaH in Barcelona (Spain).

METHODS

A retrospective cost-consequence analysis of all first episodes of HaH-HA, directly admitted from the emergency room (ER) in 2017-2018, was carried out with a health system perspective. HaH-HA was compared with a propensity-score-matched group of contemporary patients admitted to conventional hospitalization (Controls). Mortality, re-admissions, ER visits, and direct healthcare costs were evaluated.

RESULTS

HaH-HA and Controls (n = 441 each) were comparable in terms of age (73 [SD16] vs. 74 [SD16]), gender (male, 57% vs. 59%), multimorbidity, healthcare expenditure during the previous year, case mix index of the acute episode, and main diagnosis at discharge. HaH-HA presented lower mortality during the episode (0 vs. 19 (4.3%); p < 0.001). At 30 days post-discharge, HaH-HA and Controls showed similar re-admission rates; however, ER visits were lower in HaH-HA than in Controls (28 (6.3%) vs. 34 (8.1%); p = 0.044). Average costs per patient during the episode were lower in the HaH-HA group (€ 1,078) than in Controls (€ 2,171). Likewise, healthcare costs within the 30 days post-discharge were also lower in HaH-Ha than in Controls (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The study showed higher performance and cost reductions of HaH-HA in a real-world setting. The identification of sources of savings facilitates scaling of hospital avoidance.

REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov (26/04/2017; NCT03130283).

Inpatient-level care at home delivered by virtual wards and hospital at home: a systematic review and meta-analysis of complex interventions and their components

BACKGROUND

Technology-enabled inpatient-level care at home services, such as virtual wards and hospital at home, are being rapidly implemented. This is the first systematic review to link the components of these service delivery innovations to evidence of effectiveness to explore implications for practice and research.

METHODS

For this review (registered here https://osf.io/je39y ), we searched Cochrane-recommended multiple databases up to 30 November 2022 and additional resources for randomised and non-randomised studies that compared technology-enabled inpatient-level care at home with hospital-based inpatient care. We classified interventions into care model groups using three key components: clinical activities, workforce, and technology. We synthesised evidence by these groups quantitatively or narratively for mortality, hospital readmissions, cost-effectiveness and length of stay.

RESULTS

We include 69 studies: 38 randomised studies (6413 participants; largely judged as low or unclear risk of bias) and 31 non-randomised studies (31,950 participants; largely judged at serious or critical risk of bias). The 69 studies described 63 interventions which formed eight model groups. Most models, regardless of using low- or high-intensity technology, may have similar or reduced hospital readmission risk compared with hospital-based inpatient care (low-certainty evidence from randomised trials). For mortality, most models had uncertain or unavailable evidence. Two exceptions were low technology-enabled models that involve hospital- and community-based professionals, they may have similar mortality risk compared with hospital-based inpatient care (low- or moderate-certainty evidence from randomised trials). Cost-effectiveness evidence is unavailable for high technology-enabled models, but sparse evidence suggests the low technology-enabled multidisciplinary care delivered by hospital-based teams appears more cost-effective than hospital-based care for those with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations.

CONCLUSIONS

Low-certainty evidence suggests that none of technology-enabled care at home models we explored put people at higher risk of readmission compared with hospital-based care. Where limited evidence on mortality is available, there appears to be no additional risk of mortality due to use of technology-enabled at home models. It is unclear whether inpatient-level care at home using higher levels of technology confers additional benefits. Further research should focus on clearly defined interventions in high-priority populations and include comparative cost-effectiveness evaluation.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

https://osf.io/je39y .

An International Validation of the "DECAF Score" to Predict Disease Severity and Hospital Mortality in Acute Exacerbation of COPD in the UAE

The DECAF score (the Dyspnea, Eosinopenia, Consolidation, Academia, and Atrial fibrillation score) has been adopted in some hospitals to predict the severity of Acute Exacerbation of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (AECOPD). However, DECAF score has not been widely evaluated or used in Middle Eastern countries. The present study aimed to validate the DECAF score for predicting in-hospital mortality in patients with AECOPD in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). This was a retrospective, observational study conducted in 19 hospitals in the UAE. Data were retrieved from the electronic records of patients admitted for AECOPD in 17 hospitals across the country. Patients aged more than 35 years who were diagnosed with AECOPD were included in the study. The validation of the DECAF Score for inpatient death, 30-days death, and 90-day readmission was conducted using the Area Under the Receiver Operator curve (AUROC). The AUROCDECAF curves for inpatient death, 30-days death, and 90-day readmission were 0.8 (95% CI: 0.8-0.9), 0.8 (95% CI: 0.7-0.8), and 0.8 (95% CI: 0.8-0.8), respectively. The model was a satisfactory fit to the data (Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic = 0.195, Nagelkerke R2 = 31.7%). There were significant differences in means of length of stay across patients with different DECAF score (P = .008). Patients with a DECAF score of 6 had the highest mean length of stay, which was 29.8 ± 31.4 days. Patients with a DECAF score of 0 had the lowest mean length of stay, which was 3.6 ± 2.0 days. The DECAF score is a strong predictive tool for inpatient death, 30 days mortality and 90-day readmission in UAE hospital settings. The DECAF score is an effective tool for predicating mortality and other disease outcomes in patients with AECOPD in the UAE; hence, clinicians would be more empowered to make appropriate clinical decisions by using the DECAF score.

Admission avoidance hospital at home

BACKGROUND

Admission avoidance hospital at home provides active treatment by healthcare professionals in the patient's home for a condition that would otherwise require acute hospital inpatient care, and always for a limited time period. This is the fourth update of this review.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the effectiveness and cost of managing patients with admission avoidance hospital at home compared with inpatient hospital care.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, Embase, and CINAHL on 24 February 2022, and checked the reference lists of eligible articles. We sought ongoing and unpublished studies by searching ClinicalTrials.gov and WHO ICTRP, and by contacting providers and researchers involved in the field.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Randomised controlled trials recruiting participants aged 18 years and over. Studies comparing admission avoidance hospital at home with acute hospital inpatient care.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

We followed the standard methodological procedures expected by Cochrane and the Effective Practice and Organisation of Care (EPOC) Group. We performed meta-analysis for trials that compared similar interventions, reported comparable outcomes with sufficient data, and used individual patient data when available. We used the GRADE approach to assess the certainty of the body of evidence for the most important outcomes.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 20 randomised controlled trials with a total of 3100 participants; four trials recruited participants with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; two trials recruited participants recovering from a stroke; seven trials recruited participants with an acute medical condition who were mainly older; and the remaining trials recruited participants with a mix of conditions. We assessed the majority of the included studies as at low risk of selection, detection, and attrition bias, and unclear for selective reporting and performance bias. For an older population, admission avoidance hospital at home probably makes little or no difference on mortality at six months' follow-up (risk ratio (RR) 0.88, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.68 to 1.13; P = 0.30; I2 = 0%; 5 trials, 1502 participants; moderate-certainty evidence); little or no difference on the likelihood of being readmitted to hospital after discharge from hospital at home or inpatient care within 3 to 12 months' follow-up (RR 1.14, 95% CI 0.97 to 1.34; P = 0.11; I2 = 41%; 8 trials, 1757 participants; moderate-certainty evidence); and probably reduces the likelihood of living in residential care at six months' follow-up (RR 0.53, 95% CI 0.41 to 0.69; P < 0.001; I2 = 67%; 4 trials, 1271 participants; moderate-certainty evidence). Hospital at home probably results in little to no difference in patient's self-reported health status (2006 patients; moderate-certainty evidence). Satisfaction with health care received may be improved with admission avoidance hospital at home (1812 participants; low-certainty evidence); few studies reported the effect on caregivers. Hospital at home reduced the initial average hospital length of stay (2036 participants; low-certainty evidence), which ranged from 4.1 to 18.5 days in the hospital group and 1.2 to 5.1 days in the hospital at home group. Hospital at home length of stay ranged from an average of 3 to 20.7 days (hospital at home group only). Admission avoidance hospital at home probably reduces costs to the health service compared with hospital admission (2148 participants; moderate-certainty evidence), though by a range of different amounts and using different methods to cost resource use, and there is some evidence that it decreases overall societal costs to six months' follow-up.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Admission avoidance hospital at home, with the option of transfer to hospital, may provide an effective alternative to inpatient care for a select group of older people who have been referred for hospital admission. The intervention probably makes little or no difference to patient health outcomes; may improve satisfaction; probably reduces the likelihood of relocating to residential care; and probably decreases costs.

Factors influencing the implementation of early discharge hospital at home and admission avoidance hospital at home: a qualitative evidence synthesis

BACKGROUND

Worldwide there is an increasing demand for Hospital at Home as an alternative to hospital admission. Although there is a growing evidence base on the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of Hospital at Home, health service managers, health professionals and policy makers require evidence on how to implement and sustain these services on a wider scale.

OBJECTIVES

(1) To identify, appraise and synthesise qualitative research evidence on the factors that influence the implementation of Admission Avoidance Hospital at Home and Early Discharge Hospital at Home, from the perspective of multiple stakeholders, including policy makers, health service managers, health professionals, patients and patients' caregivers. (2) To explore how our synthesis findings relate to, and help to explain, the findings of the Cochrane intervention reviews of Admission Avoidance Hospital at Home and Early Discharge Hospital at Home services.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched MEDLINE, CINAHL, Global Index Medicus and Scopus until 17 November 2022. We also applied reference checking and citation searching to identify additional studies. We searched for studies in any language.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included qualitative studies and mixed-methods studies with qualitative data collection and analysis methods examining the implementation of new or existing Hospital at Home services from the perspective of different stakeholders.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Two authors independently selected the studies, extracted study characteristics and intervention components, assessed the methodological limitations using the Critical Appraisal Skills Checklist (CASP) and assessed the confidence in the findings using GRADE-CERQual (Confidence in the Evidence from Reviews of Qualitative research). We applied thematic synthesis to synthesise the data across studies and identify factors that may influence the implementation of Hospital at Home.

MAIN RESULTS

From 7535 records identified from database searches and one identified from citation tracking, we included 52 qualitative studies exploring the implementation of Hospital at Home services (31 Early Discharge, 16 Admission Avoidance, 5 combined services), across 13 countries and from the perspectives of 662 service-level staff (clinicians, managers), eight systems-level staff (commissioners, insurers), 900 patients and 417 caregivers. Overall, we judged 40 studies as having minor methodological concerns and we judged 12 studies as having major concerns. Main concerns included data collection methods (e.g. not reporting a topic guide), data analysis methods (e.g. insufficient data to support findings) and not reporting ethical approval. Following synthesis, we identified 12 findings graded as high (n = 10) and moderate (n = 2) confidence and classified them into four themes: (1) development of stakeholder relationships and systems prior to implementation, (2) processes, resources and skills required for safe and effective implementation, (3) acceptability and caregiver impacts, and (4) sustainability of services.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

Implementing Admission Avoidance and Early Discharge Hospital at Home services requires early development of policies, stakeholder engagement, efficient admission processes, effective communication and a skilled workforce to safely and effectively implement person-centred Hospital at Home, achieve acceptance by staff who refer patients to these services and ensure sustainability. Future research should focus on lower-income country and rural settings, and the perspectives of systems-level stakeholders, and explore the potential negative impact on caregivers, especially for Admission Avoidance Hospital at Home, as this service may become increasingly utilised to manage rising visits to emergency departments.

The outcomes of treatment for homebound adults with complex medical conditions in a hospital-at-home unit in the southern district of Israel

BACKGROUND

A model of hospital-at-home services called the Home Care Unit ("the unit") has been implemented in the southern region of the Clalit Healthcare Services in Israel. The aim of the present study was to characterize this service model.

METHODS

A retrospective cross-over study. included homebound patients 65 years of age and above who were treated for at least one month in the framework of the unit, between 2013 and 2020. We compared the hospitalization rate, the number of hospital days, the number of emergency room visits, and the cost of hospitalization for the six-month period prior to admission to the unit, the period of treatment in the unit, and the six-month period following discharge from the unit.

RESULTS

The study included 623 patients with a mean age of 83.7 ± 9.2 years with a mean Mini-mental State Examination (MMSE) score of 12.0 ± 10.2, a mean Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) of 3.7 ± 2.2 and a Barthel Index score of 23.9 ± 25.1. The main indications for admission to the unit were various geriatric syndromes (56.7%), acute functional decline (21.2%), and heart failure (12%). 22.8% died during the treatment period and 63.4% were discharged to ongoing treatment by their family doctor after their condition stabilized. Compared to the six months prior to admission to the unit there was a significant decrease (per patient per month) in the treatment period in the number of days of hospitalization (2.84 ± 4.35 vs. 1.7 ± 3.8 days, p < 0.001) and in the cost of hospitalization (1606 ± 2170 vs. 1066 ± 2082 USD, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Treatment of homebound adults with a high disease burden in the setting of a hospital-at-home unit can significantly reduce the number of hospital days and the cost of hospitalization. This model of service for homebound patients with multiple medical problems maintained a high level of care while reducing costs. The results support the widespread adoption of this service in the community to enable the healthcare system to respond to the growing population of elderly patients with medical complexity.

An integrated understanding of the impact of hospital at home: a mixed-methods study to articulate and test a programme theory

BACKGROUND

Hospital at Home (HaH) provides intensive, hospital-level care in patients' homes for acute conditions that would normally require hospitalisation, using multidisciplinary teams. As a programme of complex medical-social interventions, a HaH programme theory has not been fully articulated although implicit in the structures, functions, and activities of the existing HaH services. We aimed to unearth the tacit theory from international evidence and test the soundness of it by studying UK HaH services.

METHODS

We conducted a literature review (29 articles) adopting a 'realist review' approach (theory articulation) and examined 11 UK-based services by interviewing up to 3 staff members from each service (theory testing). The review and interview data were analysed using Framework Analysis and Purposive Text Analysis.

RESULTS

The programme theory has three components- the organisational, utilisation and impact theories. The impact theory consists of key assumptions about the change processes brought about by HaH's activities and functions, as detailed in the organisational and utilisation theories. HaH teams should encompass multiple disciplines to deliver comprehensive assessments and have skill sets for physically delivering hospital-level processes of care in the home. They should aim to treat a broad range of conditions in patients who are clinically complex and felt to be vulnerable to hospital acquired harms. Services should cover 7 days a week, have plans for 24/7 response and deliver relational continuity of care through consistent staffing. As a result, patients' and carers' knowledge, skills, and confidence in disease management and self-care should be strengthened with a sense of safety during HaH treatment, and carers better supported to fulfil their role with minimal added care burden.

CONCLUSIONS

There are organisational factors for HaH services and healthcare processes that contribute to better experience of care and outcomes for patients. HaH services should deliver care using hospital level processes through teams that have a focus on holistic and individually tailored care with continuity of therapeutic relationships between professionals and patients and carers resulting in less complexity and fragmentation of care. This analysis informs how HaH services can organise resources and design processes of care to optimise patient satisfaction and outcomes.

Acute care models for older people living with frailty: a systematic review and taxonomy

BACKGROUND

The need to improve the acute care pathway to meet the care needs of older people living with frailty is a strategic priority for many healthcare systems. The optimal care model for this patient group is unclear.

METHODS

A systematic review was conducted to derive a taxonomy of acute care models for older people with acute medical illness and describe the outcomes used to assess their effectiveness. Care models providing time-limited episodes of care (up to 14 days) within 48 h of presentation to patients over the age of 65 with acute medical illness were included. Care models based in hospital and community settings were eligible. Searches were undertaken in Medline, Embase, CINAHL and Cochrane databases. Interventions were described and classified in detail using a modified version of the TIDIeR checklist for complex interventions. Outcomes were described and classified using the Core Outcome Measures in Effectiveness Trials (COMET) taxonomy. Risk of bias was assessed using RoB2 and ROBINS-I.

RESULTS

The inclusion criteria were met by 103 articles. Four classes of acute care model were identified, acute-bed based care, hospital at home, emergency department in-reach and care home models. The field is dominated by small single centre randomised and non-randomised studies. Most studies were judged to be at risk of bias. A range of outcome measures were reported with little consistency between studies. Evidence of effectiveness was limited.

CONCLUSION

Acute care models for older people living with frailty are heterogenous. The clinical effectiveness of these models cannot be conclusively established from the available evidence.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

PROSPERO registration (CRD42021279131).

Admission blood eosinophil count, inpatient death and death at 1 year in exacerbating patients with COPD

BACKGROUND

Blood eosinophil counts have been studied in patients with stable chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and are a useful biomarker to guide inhaled corticosteroid use. Less is known about eosinophil counts during severe exacerbation.

METHODS

In this retrospective study, 2645 patients admitted consecutively with COPD exacerbation across six UK hospitals were included in the study, and the clinical diagnosis was confirmed by a respiratory specialist. The relationship between admission eosinophil count, inpatient death and 1-year death was assessed. In a backward elimination, Poisson regression analysis using the log-link function with robust estimates, patients' markers of acute illness and stable-state characteristics were assessed in terms of their association with eosinopenia.

RESULTS

1369 of 2645 (52%) patients had eosinopenia at admission. Those with eosinopenia had a 2.5-fold increased risk of inpatient death compared with those without eosinopenia (12.1% vs 4.9%, RR=2.50, 95% CI 1.88 to 3.31, p<0.001). The same mortality risk with eosinopenia was seen among the subgroup with pneumonic exacerbation (n=788, 21.3% vs 8.5%, RR=2.5, 95% CI 1.67 to 2.24, p<0.001). In a regression analysis, eosinopenia was significantly associated with: older age and male sex; a higher pulse rate, temperature, neutrophil count, urea and C reactive protein level; a higher proportion of patients with chest X-ray consolidation and a reduced Glasgow Coma Score; and lower systolic and diastolic blood pressure measurements and lower oxygen saturation, albumin, platelet and previous admission counts.

DISCUSSION

During severe COPD exacerbation, eosinopenia is common and associated with inpatient death and several markers of acute illness. Clinicians should be cautious about using eosinophil results obtained during severe exacerbation to guide treatment decisions regarding inhaled corticosteroid use.

Proportion of medical admissions that may be hospitalised at home and their service utilisation patterns: a single-centre, descriptive retrospective cohort study in Singapore

OBJECTIVES

For eligible patient groups, hospital-at-home (HaH) programmes have been shown to deliver equivalent patient outcomes with cost reduction compared with standard care. This study aims to establish a benchmark of inpatient admissions that could potentially be substituted by HaH services.

DESIGN

Descriptive retrospective cohort study.

SETTING

Academic tertiary hospital in Singapore.

PARTICIPANTS

124 253 medical admissions over 20 months (January 2016 to August 2017).

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary measure was the proportion of hospitalised patients who may be eligible for HaH, based on eligibility criteria adapted for the Singapore context. The secondary measures were the utilisation patterns and outcomes of these patients.

RESULTS

Applying generalised eligibility criteria to the retrospective dataset showed that 53.0% of 124 253 medical admissions fitted the eligibility criteria for HaH based on administrative data. 46.8% of such patients had a length of stay <48 hours ('short-stay') and 53.1% had a length of stay ≥48 hours ('medium-stay'). The mortality rate and the 30-day readmission rate were lower in the 'short-stay' cohort (0.6%, 12.8%) compared with the 'medium-stay' cohort (0.7%, 20.3%). The key services used by both groups were: parenteral drug administration, blood investigations, imaging procedures and consultations with allied health professionals.

CONCLUSIONS

Up to 53.0% of medical admissions receive care elements that HaH programmes could provide. Applying estimates of functional limitations and patient preferences, we propose a target of ~18% of inpatient medical admissions to be substituted by HaH services. The methodology adopted in this paper is a reproducible approach to characterise potential patients and service utilisation requirements when developing such programmes.

Decoding the Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) Puzzle: Investigating the Significance of Exacerbation Scores in Triage Decision-Making

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a complex disease pathology of the lungs that has a significant impact on global health. It has been a major contributor to global mortality and morbidity, with COPD exacerbations posing a substantial economic burden on the healthcare systems. Appropriate triaging of patients with COPD exacerbation is crucial to reduce the burden of hospitalization, especially in the intensive care unit (ICU). Understanding the significance of exacerbation scores in triage decision-making is essential for improving outcomes and optimizing patient care. To aid this triage decision-making, several scoring systems have been developed. This review article aims to discuss the different scores, including assessment of Confusion, Urea, Respiratory rate, Blood pressure, and Age (≥65 years) (CURB-65); Dyspnoea, Eosinopenia, Consolidation, Acidaemia and atrial Fibrillation (DECAF), Neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR); Platelet-lymphocyte ratio (PLR); Pneumonia severity index/Pneumonia Patient Outcomes Research Team (PSI/PORT); and elevated BUN, Altered mental status, Pulse, Age (>65 years) (BAP-65), and their role in triaging COPD exacerbations. Proper triaging allows for the appropriate allocation of resources and timely interventions based on severity. Further research and validation are needed to establish the optimal use and integration of these scores in clinical practice, particularly in ICU settings.

Hospital at home: A change in the course of care

ABSTRACT

Acute care services in the United States are largely delivered in the hospital setting. Since the recent pandemic, acute care services in the hospital have become overwhelmed. An elderly population with comorbidities and lack of hospital capacity is leading to a "hospital without walls" approach to acute care. Hospital at Home (HaH) is a paradigm shift in the standard way to administer acute care. Model development coupled with innovations in telehealth and remote patient monitoring has led to HaH being considered a viable alternative to admitting patients to the hospital. Robust evidence suggests that HaH interventions are a new option for providers to assess, treat, and monitor patients. Outcomes equivalent to in-patient stays with no mortality difference makes this model a viable option for patient care outside of the hospital. An overall reduction in cost compared with an in-patient stay may be an economically viable option for overwhelmed hospital systems looking to care for their surrounding population. In this brief, we review some of the existing evidence and the growth of the HaH concept, and what it means for members of the interdisciplinary care team.

Hospital-Level Care at Home for Patients With Acute Respiratory Disease: A Descriptive Analysis

BACKGROUND

Home hospital (HH) care is hospital-level substitutive care delivered at home for acutely ill patients who traditionally would be cared for in the hospital. Despite HH care programs operating successfully for years and scientific evidence of similar or better outcomes compared with bricks-and-mortar care, HH care outcomes in the United States for respiratory disease have not been evaluated.

RESEARCH QUESTION

Do outcomes differ between patients admitted to HH care with acute respiratory illness vs those with other acute general medical conditions?

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

This was a retrospective evaluation of prospectively collected data of patients admitted to HH care (2017-2021). We compared patients requiring admission with respiratory disease (asthma exacerbation [26%], acute exacerbation of COPD [33%], and non-COVID-19 pneumonia [41%]) to all other patients admitted to HH care. During HH care, patients received two nurse and one physician visit daily, IV medications, advanced respiratory therapies, and continuous heart and respiratory rate monitoring. Main outcomes were acute and postacute health care use and safety.

RESULTS

We analyzed 1,031 patients; 24% were admitted for respiratory disease. Patients with and without respiratory disease were similar: mean age, 68 ± 17 years, 62% women, and 48% White. Patients with respiratory disease more often were active smokers (21% vs 9%; P < .001). Eighty percent of patients showed an FEV₁ to FVC ratio of ≤ 70; 28% showed a severe or very severe obstructive pattern (n = 118). During HH care, patients with respiratory disease showed less health care use: length of stay (mean, 3.4 vs 4.6 days), laboratory orders (median, 0 vs 2), IV medication (43% vs 73%), and specialist consultation (2% vs 7%; P < .001 for all). Ninety-six percent of patients completed the full admission at home with no mortality in the respiratory group. Within 30 days of discharge, both groups showed similar readmission, ED presentation, and mortality rates.

INTERPRETATION

HH care is as safe and effective for patients with acute respiratory disease as for those with other acute general medical conditions. If scaled, it can generate significant high-value capacity for health systems and communities, with opportunities to advance the complexity of care delivered.

Treating acutely ill patients at home: Data from Singapore

INTRODUCTION

Hospital-at-home programmes are well described in the literature but not in Asia. We describe a home-based inpatient substitutive care programme in Singapore, with clinical and patient-reported outcomes.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of patients admitted to a hospital-at-home programme from September 2020 to September 2021. Suitable patients, who otherwise required hospitalisation, were admitted to the programme. They were from inpatient wards, emergency department and community nursing teams in the western part of Singapore, where a multidisciplinary team provided hospital-level care at home. Electronic health record data were extracted from all patients admitted to the programme. Patient satisfaction surveys were conducted post-discharge.

RESULTS

A total of 108 patients enrolled. Mean age was 67.9 (standard deviation 16.7) years, and 46% were male. The main diagnoses were skin and soft tissue infections (35%), urinary tract infections (29%) and fluid overload (18%). Median length of stay was 4 (interquartile range 3-7) days. Seven patients were escalated back to the hospital, of whom 2 died after escalation. One patient died at home. There was 1 case of adverse drug reaction and 1 fall at home, and no cases of hospital-acquired infections. Patient satisfaction rates were high and 94% of contactable patients would choose to participate again.

CONCLUSION

Hospital-at-home programmes appear to be safe and feasible alternatives to inpatient care in Singapore. Further studies are warranted to compare clinical outcomes and cost to conventional inpatient care.

How do we identify acute medical admissions that are suitable for same day emergency care?

Medical emergencies causing unplanned hospital admission place considerable demands on acute healthcare services. Some patients can be assessed and treated through ambulatory pathways without inpatient admission, via same day emergency care (SDEC), potentially benefiting patients and reducing demands on inpatient services. There is currently considerable variation within acute medicine in aspects of SDEC delivery ranging from overall service design to patient selection methods. Scoring systems identifying patients likely to be successfully managed through SDEC services have been suggested, but evidence of utility in diverse populations is lacking. Specific scoring systems exist for some common medical problems, including cardiac chest pain and pulmonary embolism, but further research is needed to demonstrate how these are most effectively incorporated into SDEC services. This review defines SDEC and describes the variation in services nationally. It reviews the evidence for their clinical impact, tools to screen patients for SDEC and current gaps in our knowledge regarding service deployment.

Dynamic contrast-enhanced CT compared with positron emission tomography CT to characterise solitary pulmonary nodules: the SPUtNIk diagnostic accuracy study and economic modelling

BACKGROUND

Current pathways recommend positron emission tomography-computerised tomography for the characterisation of solitary pulmonary nodules. Dynamic contrast-enhanced computerised tomography may be a more cost-effective approach.

OBJECTIVES

To determine the diagnostic performances of dynamic contrast-enhanced computerised tomography and positron emission tomography-computerised tomography in the NHS for solitary pulmonary nodules. Systematic reviews and a health economic evaluation contributed to the decision-analytic modelling to assess the likely costs and health outcomes resulting from incorporation of dynamic contrast-enhanced computerised tomography into management strategies.

DESIGN

Multicentre comparative accuracy trial.

SETTING

Secondary or tertiary outpatient settings at 16 hospitals in the UK.

PARTICIPANTS

Participants with solitary pulmonary nodules of ≥ 8 mm and of ≤ 30 mm in size with no malignancy in the previous 2 years were included.

INTERVENTIONS

Baseline positron emission tomography-computerised tomography and dynamic contrast-enhanced computer tomography with 2 years' follow-up.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Primary outcome measures were sensitivity, specificity and diagnostic accuracy for positron emission tomography-computerised tomography and dynamic contrast-enhanced computerised tomography. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios compared management strategies that used dynamic contrast-enhanced computerised tomography with management strategies that did not use dynamic contrast-enhanced computerised tomography.

RESULTS

A total of 380 patients were recruited (median age 69 years). Of 312 patients with matched dynamic contrast-enhanced computer tomography and positron emission tomography-computerised tomography examinations, 191 (61%) were cancer patients. The sensitivity, specificity and diagnostic accuracy for positron emission tomography-computerised tomography and dynamic contrast-enhanced computer tomography were 72.8% (95% confidence interval 66.1% to 78.6%), 81.8% (95% confidence interval 74.0% to 87.7%), 76.3% (95% confidence interval 71.3% to 80.7%) and 95.3% (95% confidence interval 91.3% to 97.5%), 29.8% (95% confidence interval 22.3% to 38.4%) and 69.9% (95% confidence interval 64.6% to 74.7%), respectively. Exploratory modelling showed that maximum standardised uptake values had the best diagnostic accuracy, with an area under the curve of 0.87, which increased to 0.90 if combined with dynamic contrast-enhanced computerised tomography peak enhancement. The economic analysis showed that, over 24 months, dynamic contrast-enhanced computerised tomography was less costly (£3305, 95% confidence interval £2952 to £3746) than positron emission tomography-computerised tomography (£4013, 95% confidence interval £3673 to £4498) or a strategy combining the two tests (£4058, 95% confidence interval £3702 to £4547). Positron emission tomography-computerised tomography led to more patients with malignant nodules being correctly managed, 0.44 on average (95% confidence interval 0.39 to 0.49), compared with 0.40 (95% confidence interval 0.35 to 0.45); using both tests further increased this (0.47, 95% confidence interval 0.42 to 0.51).

LIMITATIONS

The high prevalence of malignancy in nodules observed in this trial, compared with that observed in nodules identified within screening programmes, limits the generalisation of the current results to nodules identified by screening.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings from this research indicate that positron emission tomography-computerised tomography is more accurate than dynamic contrast-enhanced computerised tomography for the characterisation of solitary pulmonary nodules. A combination of maximum standardised uptake value and peak enhancement had the highest accuracy with a small increase in costs. Findings from this research also indicate that a combined positron emission tomography-dynamic contrast-enhanced computerised tomography approach with a slightly higher willingness to pay to avoid missing small cancers or to avoid a 'watch and wait' policy may be an approach to consider.

FUTURE WORK

Integration of the dynamic contrast-enhanced component into the positron emission tomography-computerised tomography examination and the feasibility of dynamic contrast-enhanced computerised tomography at lung screening for the characterisation of solitary pulmonary nodules should be explored, together with a lower radiation dose protocol.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42018112215 and CRD42019124299, and the trial is registered as ISRCTN30784948 and ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02013063.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 26, No. 17. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Comparison of peak expiratory Flow(PEF) and COPD assessment test (CAT) to assess COPD exacerbation requiring hospitalization: A prospective observational study

Background: Acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) resulting in hospitalization is significantly associated with the increased morbidity and mortality, but there is a lack of an effective method to assess it. This study aimed to compare the ability of peak expiratory flow (PEF) and COPD assessment test (CAT) to assess COPD exacerbations requiring hospitalization. Methods : A cohort of 110 patients with moderate to severe COPD was studied over a period of 12 months, and their daily morning PEFs and CAT scores were recorded throughout the study. Results : After 12 months of follow-up, 72 patients experienced 156 COPD exacerbations, 74 (47%) that resulted in hospitalization and 82 (53%) that did not result in hospitalization. Change in CAT score from baseline to exacerbation was significantly related to change in PEF and Spearman’s rho =0.375 (95% CI, 0.227 to 0.506; p < .001). Change in PEF and CAT score from baseline to hospitalized exacerbation was significantly larger than that from baseline to non-hospitalized exacerbation (p < .05). Multivariable analysis indicated that ΔPEF (OR 1.11, 95% CI 1.06–1.16, p < .001) and ΔCAT (OR 1.64 95% CI 1.18–2.27, p = .003) were independently associated with risk of hospitalized exacerbation. ROC analysis indicated that the optimal cutoff value of ΔPEF for identifying hospitalized exacerbation was 49 L/min (27% from baseline), with a sensitivity and specificity of 82.7% and 76.7% (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.872 (95% CI 0.80–0.944, p < .05). The optimal cutoff value of ΔCAT score for identifying hospitalized exacerbation was 10.5 (63% from baseline), with a sensitivity and specificity of 67.3% and 77.4% [AUC]=0.763 (95% CI 0.67–0.857, p < .05). The AUC of ΔPEF and ΔCAT combined for the identification of hospitalized exacerbation was 0.900 (95% CI 0.841–0.959, p < .05), which was larger than that of ΔCAT or ΔPEF. Conclusions: ΔPEF and ΔCAT were independently associated with risk of hospitalized exacerbation. Compared with CAT, PEF was superior to identify hospitalized exacerbation. Identification via PEF and CAT combined is more effective than using PEF or CAT alone. These results help to assess the severity of COPD exacerbation and provide valuable information for clinical decision-making.

Revealing the Nature of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Using Self-tracking and Analysis of Contact Patterns: Longitudinal Study

Background

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is the fourth leading cause of death and is characterized by a progressive loss of pulmonary function over time with intermittent episodes of exacerbations. Rapid and proactive interventions may reduce the burden of the condition for the patients. Telehealth solutions involving self-tracking of vital parameters such as pulmonary function, oxygen saturation, heart rate, and temperature with synchronous communication of health data may become a powerful solution as they enable health care professionals to react with a proactive and adequate response. We have taken this idea to the next level in the Epital Care Model and organized a person-centered technology-assisted ecosystem to provide health services to COPD patients.

Objective

The objective is to reveal the nature of COPD by combining technology with a person-centered design aimed to benefit from interactions based on patient-reported outcome data and to assess the needed kind of contacts to best treat exacerbations. We wanted to know the following: (1) What are the incidences of mild, moderate, and severe exacerbations in a mixed population of COPD patients? (2) What are the courses of mild, moderate, and severe exacerbations? And (3) How is the activity and pattern of contacts with health professionals related to the participant conditions?

Methods

Participants were recruited by convenience sampling from November 2013 to December 2015. The participants’ sex, age, forced expiratory volume during the first second, pulse rate, and oxygen saturation were registered at entry. During the study, we registered number of days, number of exacerbations, and number of contact notes coded into care and treatment notes. Each participant was classified according to GOLD I-IV and risk factor group A-D. Participants reported their clinical status using a tablet by answering 4 questions and sending 3 semiautomated measurements.

Results

Of the 87 participants, 11 were in risk factor group A, 24 in B, 13 in C, and 39 in D. The number of observed days was 31,801 days with 12,470 measurements, 1397 care notes, and 1704 treatment notes. A total of 254 exacerbations were treated and only 18 caused hospitalization. Those in risk factor group D had the highest number of hospitalizations (16), exacerbations (151), and contacts (1910). The initial contacts during the first month declined within 3 months to one-third for care contacts and one-half for treatment contacts and reached a plateau after 4 months.

Conclusions

The majority of COPD patients in risk factor group D can be managed virtually, and only 13% of those with severe exacerbations required hospitalization. Contact to the health care professionals decreases markedly within the first months after enrollment. These results provide a new and detailed insight into the course of COPD. We propose a resilience index for virtual clinical management making it easier to compare results across settings.

Uptake of Clinical Prognostic Tools in COPD Exacerbations Requiring Hospitalisation

Clinical prognostic tools are used to objectively predict outcomes in many fields of medicine. Whilst over 400 have been developed for use in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), only a minority have undergone full external validation and just one, the DECAF score, has undergone an implementation study supporting use in clinical practice. Little is known about how such tools are used in the UK. We distributed surveys at two time points, in 2017 and 2019, to hospitals included in the Royal College of Physicians of London national COPD secondary care audit program. The survey assessed the use of prognostic tools in routine care of hospitalized COPD patients. Hospital response rates were 71/196 in 2017 and 72/196 in 2019. The use of the DECAF and PEARL scores more than doubled in decisions about unsupported discharge (7%-15.3%), admission avoidance (8.1%-17%) and readmission avoidance (4.8%-13.1%); it more than tripled (8.8%-27.8%) in decisions around hospital-at-home or early supported discharge schemes. In other areas, routine use of clinical prognostic tools was uncommon. In palliative care decisions, the use of the Gold Standards Framework Prognostic Indicator Guidance fell (5.6%-1.4%). In 2017, 43.7% of hospitals used at least one clinical prognostic tool in routine COPD care, increasing to 52.1% in 2019. Such tools can help challenge prognostic pessimism and improve care. To integrate these further into routine clinical care, future research should explore current barriers to their use and focus on implementation studies.Supplemental data for this article is available online at https://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15412555.2021.1959540.

Models of care across the continuum of exacerbations for patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease

Exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are associated with significant morbidity and mortality, and treatments require a multidisciplinary approach to address patient needs. This review considers different models of care across the continuum of exacerbations (1) chronic care and self-management interventions with the action plan, (2) domiciliary care for severe exacerbation and the impact on readmission prevention and (3) the discharge care bundle for management beyond the acute exacerbation episode. Self-management strategies include written action plans and coaching with patient and family support. Self-management interventions facilitate the delivery of good care, can reduce exacerbations associated with admission, be cost-effective and improve quality of life. Hospitalization as a complication of exacerbation is not always unavoidable. Domiciliary care has been proposed as a solution to replace part, and perhaps even all, of the patient’s in-hospital stay, and to reduce hospital bed days, readmission rates and costs; low-risk patients can be identified using risk stratification tools. A COPD discharge bundle is another potentially important approach that can be considered to improve the management of COPD exacerbations complicated by hospital admission; it comprised treatments that have demonstrated efficacy, such as smoking cessation, personalized pharmacotherapy and non-pharmacotherapy such as pulmonary rehabilitation. COPD bundles may also improve the transition of care from the hospital to the community following exacerbation and may reduce readmission rates. Future models of care should be personalized – providing patient education aiming at behaviour changes, identifying and treating co-morbidities, and including outcomes that measure quality of care rather than focusing only on readmission quantity within 30 days.

Hospital-at-home for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease exacerbation: Will it be an effective readmission avoidance model?

OBJECTIVES

Hospital-at-home (HAH), a pioneering health care model, is an accepted alternative to hospital treatment for patients with a chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations. The aim of the present study was to analyze the effectiveness of HAH for patients with COPD exacerbations.

METHODS

Two hundred six patients with COPD exacerbations who were admitted to our emergency room (ER) received the HAH model between January 2008 and March 2010. The number of patient's hospitalization, admission to emergency room, unscheduled outpatient attendance, and the length of stay in hospital (day) were recorded before and after a one-year period of HAH.

RESULTS

After a one-year follow-up period of the HAH program, the number of patient who had hospitalization, admission to ER, unscheduled outpatient attendance rates was decreased 41.3%, 54.4%, 49.5% respectively. The decreases for all parameters were found to be statistically significant (P < 0.001). Additionally the total number of length of stay in hospital (day) after a one-year period after HAH was decreased (46.5%).

CONCLUSION

Integrated care services, including home care units where HAH models are performed, are necessary to improve the health of patients with COPD, as well as to better manage their condition in terms of disease burden. Physicians should consider this form of management, especially because there is increasing pressure on inpatient bed requirement in Turkey.

Hospital-at-Home Interventions vs In-Hospital Stay for Patients With Chronic Disease Who Present to the Emergency Department: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Importance

Hospitalizations are costly and may lead to adverse events; hospital-at-home interventions could be a substitute for in-hospital stays, particularly for patients with chronic diseases who use health services more than other patients. Despite showing promising results, heterogeneity in past systematic reviews remains high.

Objective

To systematically review and assess the association between patient outcomes and hospital-at-home interventions as a substitute for in-hospital stay for community-dwelling patients with a chronic disease who present to the emergency department and are offered at least 1 home visit from a nurse and/or physician.

Data Sources

Databases were searched from date of inception to March 4, 2019. The databases were Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid Embase, Ovid PsycINFO, CINAHL, Health Technology Assessment, the Cochrane Library, OVID Allied and Complementary Medicine Database, the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, and ClinicalTrials.gov.

Study Selection

Randomized clinical trials in which the experimental group received hospital-at-home interventions and the control group received the usual in-hospital care. Patients were 18 years or older with a chronic disease who presented to the emergency department and received home visits from a nurse or physician.

Data Extraction and Synthesis

Risk of bias was assessed, and a meta-analysis was conducted for outcomes that were reported by at least 2 studies using comparable measures. Risk ratios (RRs) were reported for binary outcomes and mean differences for continuous outcomes. Narrative synthesis was performed for other outcomes.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Outcomes of interest were patient outcomes, which included mortality, long-term care admission, readmission, length of treatment, out-of-pocket costs, depression and anxiety, quality of life, patient satisfaction, caregiver stress, cognitive status, nutrition, morbidity due to hospitalization, functional status, and neurological deficits.

Results

Nine studies were included, providing data on 959 participants (median age, 71.0 years [interquartile range, 70.0-79.9 years]; 613 men [63.9%]; 346 women [36.1%]). Mortality did not differ between the hospital-at-home and the in-hospital care groups (RR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.61-1.15; I2 = 0%). Risk of readmission was lower (RR, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.57-0.95; I2 = 31%) and length of treatment was longer in the hospital-at-home group than in the in-hospital group (mean difference, 5.45 days; 95% CI, 1.91-8.97 days; I2 = 87%). In addition, the hospital-at-home group had a lower risk of long-term care admission than the in-hospital care group (RR, 0.16; 95% CI, 0.03-0.74; I2 = 0%). Patients who received hospital-at-home interventions had lower depression and anxiety than those who remained in-hospital, but there was no difference in functional status. Other patient outcomes showed mixed results.

Conclusions and Relevance

The results of this systematic review and meta-analysis suggest that hospital-at-home interventions represent a viable substitute to an in-hospital stay for patients with chronic diseases who present to the emergency department and who have at least 1 visit from a nurse or physician. Although the heterogeneity of the findings remained high for some outcomes, particularly for length of treatment, the heterogeneity of this study was comparable to that of past reviews and further explored.

Blood eosinophils as predictor of outcomes in patients hospitalized for COPD exacerbations: a prospective observational study

PURPOSE

In the present prospective multicentre observational study, we evaluated the potential role of blood eosinophils on the outcomes of patients hospitalized for COPD exacerbations.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Consecutive patients >40 years with a previous COPD diagnosis were recruited. Blood eosinophils were measured on admission prior to the initiation of treatment and were evaluated in three groups (<50, 50-149 and ≥150 cells/μL). Patients received standard care and were followed up for a year.

RESULTS

A total of 388 patients were included (83.5% male, mean age 72 years). Patients with higher blood eosinophils had less dyspnoea (Borg scale), lower C-reactive protein (CRP) and higher PaO₂/FiO₂ (partial pressure for oxygen/fraction of inhaled oxygen), and were discharged earlier (median 11 vs. 9 vs. 5 days for patients with <50, 50-149 and ≥150 cells/μL, respectively). Patients with <50 cells/μL presented higher 30-day and 1-year mortality, whereas there were no differences in moderate/severe COPD exacerbations between the three groups. In a post hoc analysis, treatment with inhaled corticosteroids as per physicians' decision was associated with better exacerbation prevention during follow-up in patients with ≥150 cells/μL.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher blood eosinophils were associated with better outcomes in hospitalized COPD patients, further supporting their use as a prognostic biomarker.

Use of DECAF scoring system to facilitate early discharge in acute exacerbation of COPD patients: a quality improvement project at a district general hospital

Introduction

DECAF is a scoring tool that can predict severity in patients with an acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD). Previous research has shown AECOPD patients with DECAF scores of 0-1 are candidates for early discharge.

Methods

Plan, do, study, act (PDSA) methodology was used. Patients with AECOPD and a DECAF score of 0-1 were included. Notes were retrospectively reviewed for patients for DECAF score, length of stay, 30-day re-admission and 30-day mortality (PDSA cycle 1). A framework to facilitate early discharge for patients was subsequently established. Awareness was increased through teaching sessions, posters and targeted emails. To evaluate our improvements, the same parameters were collected prospectively (PDSA cycle 2).

Results

DECAF score was assessed for no patients in PDSA cycle 1 (n=20) but was assessed for all patients in PDSA cycle 2 (n=14). Hospital stay was significantly decreased in PDSA cycle 2 (mean 0.29±0.45 days) compared with PDSA cycle 1 (mean 3.71±2.69 days; difference p<0.00001). Thirty-day re-admission and 30-day mortality was not significantly different between two groups.

Conclusion

DECAF protocol is safe and feasible in the district general hospital setting and can facilitate early discharge for patients with low severity AECOPD without any worrisome effects.

COPD Comorbidity Profiles and 2-Year Trajectory of Acute and Postacute Care Use

BACKGROUND

Multiple morbidity is the norm in advanced COPD and contributes to high symptom burden and worse outcomes.

RESEARCH QUESTION

Can distinct comorbidity profiles be identified and validated in a community-based sample of patients with COPD from a large integrated health care system using a standard, commonly used diagnostic code-based comorbidity index and downstream 2-year health care use data?

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

In this retrospective cohort study, we used latent class analysis (LCA) to identify comorbidity profiles in a population-based sample of 91,453 patients with a COPD diagnosis between 2011 and 2015. We included specific comorbid conditions from the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and accounted for variation in underlying prevalence of different comorbidities across the three study sites. Sociodemographic, clinical, and health-care use data were obtained from electronic health records (EHRs). Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to compare rates of acute and postacute care use by class.

RESULTS

The mean age was 71 ± 11 years, 55% of patients were women, 23% of patients were people of color, and 80% of patients were former or current smokers. LCA identified four distinct comorbidity profiles with progressively higher CCI scores: low morbidity (61%; 1.9 ± 1.4), metabolic renal (21%; 4.7 ± 1.8), cardiovascular (12%; 4.6 ± 1.9), and multimorbidity (7%; 7.5 ± 1.7). In multivariate models, during 2 years of follow-up, a significant, nonoverlapping increase was found in the odds of having any all-cause acute (hospitalizations, observation stays, and ED visits) and postacute care use across the comorbidity profiles.

INTERPRETATION

Distinct comorbidity profiles can be identified in patients with COPD using standard EHR-based diagnostic codes, and these profiles are associated with subsequent acute and postacute care use. Population-based risk stratification schemes for end-to-end, comprehensive COPD management should consider integrating comorbidity profiles such as those found in this study.

DECAF score as a mortality predictor for acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

This study was conducted to assess the association between the Dyspnea, Eosinopenia, Consolidation, Acidemia and Atrial Fibrillation (DECAF) scores and the prognosis of patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD), to evaluate the specific predictive and prognostic value of DECAF scores and to explore the effectiveness of different cut-off values in risk stratification of patients with AECOPD.

DESIGN

Systematic review and meta-analysis.

PARTICIPANTS

Adult patients diagnosed with AECOPD (over 18 years of age).

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Electronic databases, including the Cochrane Library, PubMed, the Embase and the WOS, and the reference lists in related articles were searched for studies published up to September 2019. The identified studies reported the prognostic value of DECAF scores in patients with AECOPD.

RESULTS

Seventeen studies involving 8329 participants were included in the study. Quantitative analysis demonstrated that elevated DECAF scores were associated with high mortality risk (weighted mean difference=1.87; 95% CI 1.19 to 2.56). In the accuracy analysis, DECAF scores showed good prognostic accuracy for both in-hospital and 30-day mortality (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve: 0.83 (0.79-0.86) and 0.79 (0.76-0.83), respectively). When the prognostic value was compared with that of other scoring systems, DECAF scores showed better prognostic accuracy and stable clinical values than the modified DECAF; COPD and Asthma Physiology Score; BUN, Altered mental status, Pulse and age >65; Confusion, Urea, Respiratory Rate, Blood pressure and age >65; or Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II scores.

CONCLUSION

The DECAF score is an effective and feasible predictor for short-term mortality. As a specific and easily scored predictor for patients with AECOPD, DECAF score is superior to other prognostic scores. The DECAF score can correctly identify most patients with AECOPD as low risk, and with the increase of cut-off value, the risk stratification of DECAF score in high-risk population increases significantly.

The risk of overestimating cost savings from hospital-at-home schemes: A literature review

BACKGROUND

The concept of hospital-at-home means that home treatment is provided to patients who would otherwise have been treated in the hospital. This may lead to lower costs, but estimates of savings may be overstated if inpatient hospital costs are priced incorrectly.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to evaluate the quality of cost analyses of hospital-at-home studies for acute conditions published from 1996 through 2019 and to present an overview of evidence.

DESIGN

Literature review DATA SOURCES: The PubMed and NHS EED databases were searched.

REVIEW METHODS

The overall quality of studies was evaluated based on Quality of Health Economic Studies (QHES) score, design, sample size, alignment of cost calculation with study perspective, time horizon, use of tariffs or real resource use and clarity of calculations. Furthermore, we systematically assessed whether cost savings were likely to be overestimated, based on criteria about the costing of inpatient hospital days, informal care costs and bias.

RESULTS

We identified 48 studies. The average QHES score was 60 out of a maximum of 100 points. Almost all studies violated one or more criteria for the risk of overestimation of cost savings. The most frequent problems were the use of average unit prices per inpatient day (not taking into account the decreasing intensity of care) and biased designs. Most studies found cost differences in favour of hospital-at-home; the range varied from savings of €8773 to a cost increase of €2316 per patient.

CONCLUSION

Overall quality of studies was not good, with some exceptions. Many cost savings were probably overestimated.

Prognostic models for outcome prediction in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: systematic review and critical appraisal

OBJECTIVE

To map and assess prognostic models for outcome prediction in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).

DESIGN

Systematic review.

DATA SOURCES

PubMed until November 2018 and hand searched references from eligible articles.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR STUDY SELECTION

Studies developing, validating, or updating a prediction model in COPD patients and focusing on any potential clinical outcome.

RESULTS

The systematic search yielded 228 eligible articles, describing the development of 408 prognostic models, the external validation of 38 models, and the validation of 20 prognostic models derived for diseases other than COPD. The 408 prognostic models were developed in three clinical settings: outpatients (n=239; 59%), patients admitted to hospital (n=155; 38%), and patients attending the emergency department (n=14; 3%). Among the 408 prognostic models, the most prevalent endpoints were mortality (n=209; 51%), risk for acute exacerbation of COPD (n=42; 10%), and risk for readmission after the index hospital admission (n=36; 9%). Overall, the most commonly used predictors were age (n=166; 41%), forced expiratory volume in one second (n=85; 21%), sex (n=74; 18%), body mass index (n=66; 16%), and smoking (n=65; 16%). Of the 408 prognostic models, 100 (25%) were internally validated and 91 (23%) examined the calibration of the developed model. For 286 (70%) models a model presentation was not available, and only 56 (14%) models were presented through the full equation. Model discrimination using the C statistic was available for 311 (76%) models. 38 models were externally validated, but in only 12 of these was the validation performed by a fully independent team. Only seven prognostic models with an overall low risk of bias according to PROBAST were identified. These models were ADO, B-AE-D, B-AE-D-C, extended ADO, updated ADO, updated BODE, and a model developed by Bertens et al. A meta-analysis of C statistics was performed for 12 prognostic models, and the summary estimates ranged from 0.611 to 0.769.

CONCLUSIONS

This study constitutes a detailed mapping and assessment of the prognostic models for outcome prediction in COPD patients. The findings indicate several methodological pitfalls in their development and a low rate of external validation. Future research should focus on the improvement of existing models through update and external validation, as well as the assessment of the safety, clinical effectiveness, and cost effectiveness of the application of these prognostic models in clinical practice through impact studies.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION

PROSPERO CRD42017069247.

Comparison of early warning scores in patients with COPD exacerbation: DECAF and NEWS score

Background

The National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS2) includes two oxygen saturation scales; the second adjusts target saturations to 88%–92% for those with hypercapnic respiratory failure. Using this second scale in all patients with COPD exacerbation (‘NEWS2_{All COPD}’) would simplify practice, but the impact on alert frequency and prognostic performance is unknown. Admission NEWS2 score has not been compared with DECAF (dyspnoea, eosinopenia, consolidation, acidaemia, atrial fibrillation) for inpatient mortality prediction.

Methods

NEWS, NEWS2 and NEWS2_{All COPD} and DECAF were calculated at admission in 2645 patients with COPD exacerbation attending consecutively to one of six UK hospitals, all of whom met spirometry criteria for COPD. Alert frequency and appropriateness were assessed for all NEWS iterations. Prognostic performance was compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve. Missing data were imputed using multiple imputation.

Findings

Compared with NEWS, NEWS2 reclassified 3.1% patients as not requiring review by a senior clinician (score≥5). NEWS2_{All COPD} reduced alerts by 12.6%, or 16.1% if scoring for injudicious use of oxygen was exempted. Mortality was low in reclassified patients, with no patients dying the same day as being identified as low risk. NEWS2_{All COPD} was a better prognostic score than NEWS (AUROC 0.72 vs 0.65, p<0.001), with similar performance to NEWS2 (AUROC 0.72 vs 0.70, p=0.090). DECAF was superior to all scores (validation cohort AUROC 0.82) and offered a more clinically useful range of risk stratification (DECAF=1.2%–25.5%; NEWS2=3.5%–15.4%).

Conclusion

NEWS2_{All COPD} safely reduces the alert frequency compared with NEWS2. DECAF offers superior prognostic performance to guide clinical decision-making on admission, but does not replace repeated measures of NEWS2 during hospitalisation to detect the deteriorating patient.

What are the positive drivers and potential barriers to implementation of hospital at home selected by low-risk DECAF score in the UK: a qualitative study embedded within a randomised controlled trial

OBJECTIVE

Hospital at home (HAH) for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease exacerbation selected by low-risk Dyspnoea, Eosinopenia, Consolidation, Acidaemia and atrial Fibrillation (DECAF) score is clinical and cost-effective; DECAF is a prognostic score indicating risk of mortality. Up to 50% of admitted patients are suitable, a much larger proportion than earlier services. Introduction of new models of care is challenging, but may be facilitated by informed engagement with stakeholders. This qualitative study sought to identify facilitators and barriers to implementation of HAH.

DESIGN

Semistructured interviews, data were analysed using thematic-construct analysis.

SETTING

Interviews were conducted within patients' homes and hospitals in North East England.

PARTICIPANTS

89 participants were interviewees; 44 patients, 15 carers, 15 physicians, 11 specialist nurses and 4 managers.

RESULTS

Facilitators include the following: (1) availability of home comforts and maintaining independence (with positive influences on perceived rate of recovery, sleep quality and convenience for friends, family and carers) and (2) confidence in the continuity of HAH care. Barriers include the following: (1) fear of being alone at home; (2) privacy issues and not wanting visitors and (3) resistance to change. Clinician concerns occasionally delayed return home, principally during the early phase of the trial. Nurses cited higher workload and greater responsibility, but with additional resource and training; overall, they viewed HAH positively. Operational concerns included keeping medical records in a patient's home and inability to capture activity within current payment systems.

CONCLUSION

HAH selected by DECAF was preferred to inpatient care by most patients and their families. Implementation in other hospitals will require education, training and service planning, tailored to overcome the identified barriers.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN29082260.

Specialist emergency care and COPD outcomes

INTRODUCTION

In exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (ECOPD) requiring hospitalisation greater access to respiratory specialists improves outcome, but is not consistently delivered. The UK National Confidential Enquiry into Patient Outcome and Death 2015 enquiry showed over 25% of patients receiving acute non-invasive ventilation (NIV) for ECOPD died in hospital. On 16 June 2015 the Northumbria Specialist Emergency Care Hospital (NSECH) opened, introducing 24/7 specialty consultant on-call, direct admission from the emergency department to specialty wards and 7-day consultant review. A Respiratory Support Unit opened for patients requiring NIV. Before NSECH the NIV service included mandated training and competency assessment, 24/7 single point of access, initiation of ventilation in the emergency department, a door-to-mask time target, early titration of ventilation pressures and structured weaning. Pneumonia or hypercapnic coma complicating ECOPD have never been considered contraindications to NIV. After NSECH staff-patient ratios increased, the NIV pathway was streamlined and structured daily multidisciplinary review introduced. We compared our outcomes with historical and national data.

METHODS

Patients hospitalised with ECOPD between 1 January 2013 and 31 December 2016 were identified from coding, with ventilation status and radiological consolidation confirmed from records. Age, gender, admission from nursing home, consolidation, revised Charlson Index, key comorbidities, length of stay, and inpatient and 30-day mortality were captured. Outcomes pre-NSECH and post-NSECH opening were compared and independent predictors of survival identified via logistic regression.

RESULTS

There were 6291 cases. 24/7 specialist emergency care was a strong independent predictor of lower mortality. Length of stay reduced by 1  day, but 90-day readmission rose in both ventilated and non-ventilated patients.

CONCLUSION

Provision of 24/7 respiratory specialist emergency care improved ECOPD survival and shortened length of stay for both non-ventilated and ventilated patients. The potential implications in respect to service design and provision nationally are substantial and challenging.