Derivation and validation of a simple multidimensional index incorporating exercise capacity parameters for survival prediction in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis

A composite score based on cardiovascular parameters can predict the mortality risk of patients with newly diagnosed interstitial lung disease: A prospective observational study

BACKGROUND

It is crucial to identify factors that can predict the risk of mortality in patients newly diagnosed with interstitial lung disease (ILD). This study sought to develop and assess a composite scoring system for mortality prediction among ILD patients based on cardiovascular parameters, which were previously reported as predictors of survival.

METHODS

We prospectively enrolled patients with newly diagnosed ILD and monitored their survival status for 24 months. Surviving and deceased patients were compared regarding their baseline characteristics including clinical, pulmonary, and cardiovascular parameters. A system of composite scores was established based on significant cardiovascular parameters and the Gender-Age-Physiology (GAP) score. Receiver operating characteristic curves were generated to identify their optimal cut-off values. Univariate as well as multiple multivariate regression models were built to investigate the mortality prediction of different individual and combined parameters.

RESULTS

Ninety-six patients newly diagnosed with ILD underwent cardiovascular evaluation. In univariate analysis, three cardiovascular parameters were identified as significant predictors of mortality risk in ILD patients, either individually or as a combination of composite scores: tricuspid regurgitation velocity > 3.1 m/s; N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide level > 300 pg/ml and computed tomography pulmonary artery/ascending aorta diameter ratio > 0.9. In multivariate analysis, a composite score of those parameters [hazard ratio (HR) = 2.37 (confidence interval [CI]:1.06-5.33); p = 0.037; Score 1] and GAP score [HR = 1.62 (CI: 1.11-2.36); p = 0.012] were the most significant predictors for mortality among ILD patients. Combination of Score 1 and GAP score (Score 2) can increase the accuracy of survival predictions (area under the curve 0.83; p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

A composite score based on cardiovascular parameters and the GAP score can be used to predict the risk of mortality of patients with ILD. Such a score achieved better diagnostic accuracy than the GAP score alone. Nevertheless, further larger-scale randomized controlled trials are required for evaluation of the newly proposed score and confirmation of our results.

A multidimensional classifier to support lung transplant referral in patients with pulmonary fibrosis

BACKGROUND

Lung transplantation remains the sole curative option for patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), but donor organs remain scarce, and many eligible patients die before transplant. Tools to optimize the timing of transplant referrals are urgently needed.

METHODS

Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator was applied to clinical and proteomic data generated as part of a prospective cohort study of interstitial lung disease (ILD) to derive clinical, proteomic, and multidimensional logit models of near-term death or lung transplant within 18 months of blood draw. Model-fitted values were dichotomized at the point of maximal sensitivity and specificity, and decision curve analysis was used to select the best-performing classifier. We then applied this classifier to independent IPF and non-IPF ILD cohorts to determine test performance characteristics. Cohorts were restricted to patients aged ≤72 years with body mass index 18 to 32 to increase the likelihood of transplant eligibility.

RESULTS

IPF derivation, IPF validation, and non-IPF ILD validation cohorts consisted of 314, 105, and 295 patients, respectively. A multidimensional model comprising 2 clinical variables and 20 proteins outperformed stand-alone clinical and proteomic models. Following dichotomization, the multidimensional classifier predicted near-term outcome with 70% sensitivity and 92% specificity in the IPF validation cohort and 70% sensitivity and 80% specificity in the non-IPF ILD validation cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

A multidimensional classifier of near-term outcomes accurately discriminated this end-point with good test performance across independent IPF and non-IPF ILD cohorts. These findings support refinement and prospective validation of this classifier in transplant-eligible individuals.

Modified blood cell GAP model as a prognostic biomarker in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis

Background

The Gender, Age and Physiology (GAP) model is a simple mortality prediction tool in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis that uses demographic and physiological variables available at initial evaluation. White blood cell variables may have associations with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis outcomes. We evaluated whether incorporating blood cell counts in modified GAP (cGAP) models would improve outcome prediction in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

Patients and methods

This retrospective analysis included pooled data from phase 3 randomised trials of pirfenidone in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (ASCEND, CAPACITY 004, CAPACITY 006). Study outcomes (disease progression, all-cause mortality, all-cause hospitalisation, respiratory-related hospitalisation) were evaluated during the initial 1-year period. Shared frailty models were used to evaluate associations between continuous and categorical baseline white and red blood cell parameters and study outcomes in a bivariate context, and to evaluate the impact of adding continuous monocyte count (cGAP1) or white and red blood cell parameters (cGAP2) to traditional GAP variables in a multivariable context based on C-statistics changes.

Results

Data were pooled from 1247 patients (pirfenidone, n=623; placebo, n=624). Significant associations (bivariate analyses) were idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis progression with neutrophil and eosinophil counts; all-cause mortality with monocyte and neutrophil counts; all-cause hospitalisation with monocyte count, neutrophil count and haemoglobin level; and respiratory-related hospitalisation with monocyte count, neutrophil count and haemoglobin level. In multivariate analyses, C-statistics were highest for the cGAP2 model for each of the outcomes.

Conclusion

Modified GAP models incorporating monocyte counts alone or plus other white and red blood cell variables may be useful to improve prediction of outcomes in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

Predictive biomarkers of disease progression in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a chronic interstitial disease that cannot be cured, and treatment options for IPF are very limited. Early diagnosis, close monitoring of disease progression, and timely treatment are therefore the best options for patients due to the irreversibility of IPF. Effective markers help doctors judge the development and prognosis of disease. Recent research on traditional biomarkers (KL-6, SP-D, MMP-7, TIMPs, CCL18) has provided novel ideas for predicting disease progression and prognosis. Some emerging biomarkers (HE4, GDF15, PRDX4, inflammatory cells, G-CSF) also provide more possibilities for disease prediction. In addition to markers in serum and bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF), some improvements related to the GAP model and chest HRCT also show good predictive ability for disease prognosis.

Ectopic and visceral fat deposition in aging, obesity, and idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis: an interconnected role

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is considered an age-related disease. Age-related changes, along with other factors such as obesity, hormonal imbalances, and various metabolic disorders, lead to ectopic fat deposition (EFD). This accumulation of fat outside of its normal storage sites is associated with detrimental effects such as lipotoxicity, oxidative stress, inflammation, and insulin resistance. This narrative review provides an overview of the connection between ectopic and visceral fat deposition in aging, obesity, and IPF. It also elucidates the mechanism by which ectopic fat deposition in the airways and lungs, pericardium, skeletal muscles, and pancreas contributes to lung injury and fibrosis in patients with IPF, directly or indirectly. Moreover, the review discusses the impact of EFD on the severity of the disease, quality of life, presence of comorbidities, and overall prognosis in IPF patients. The review provides detailed information on recent research regarding representative lipid-lowering drugs, hypoglycemic drugs, and lipid-targeting drugs in animal experiments and clinical studies. This may offer new therapeutic directions for patients with IPF.

Establishment and application of the BRP prognosis model for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis

BACKGROUND

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is the most common idiopathic interstitial lung disease. Clinical models to accurately evaluate the prognosis of IPF are currently lacking. This study aimed to construct an easy-to-use and robust prediction model for transplant-free survival (TFS) of IPF based on clinical and radiological information.

METHODS

A multicenter prognostic study was conducted involving 166 IPF patients who were followed up for 3 years. The end point of follow-up was death or lung transplantation. Clinical information, lung function tests, and chest computed tomography (CT) scans were collected. Body composition quantification on CT was performed using 3D Slicer software. Risk factors in blood routine examination-radiology-pulmonary function (BRP) were identified by Cox regression and utilized to construct the "BRP Prognosis Model". The performance of the BRP model and the gender-age-physiology variables (GAP) model was compared using time-ROC curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Furthermore, histopathology fibrosis scores in clinical specimens were compared between the different risk stratifications identified by the BRP model. The correlations among body composition, lung function, serum inflammatory factors, and profibrotic factors were analyzed.

RESULTS

Neutrophil percentage > 68.3%, pericardial adipose tissue (PAT) > 94.91 cm3, pectoralis muscle radiodensity (PMD) ≤ 36.24 HU, diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide/alveolar ventilation (DLCO/VA) ≤ 56.03%, and maximum vital capacity (VCmax) < 90.5% were identified as independent risk factors for poor TFS among patients with IPF. We constructed a BRP model, which showed superior accuracy, discrimination, and clinical practicability to the GAP model. Median TFS differed significantly among patients at different risk levels identified by the BRP model (low risk: TFS > 3 years; intermediate risk: TFS = 2-3 years; high risk: TFS ≈ 1 year). Patients with a high-risk stratification according to the BRP model had a higher fibrosis score on histopathology. Additionally, serum proinflammatory markers were positively correlated with visceral fat volume and infiltration.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, the BRP prognostic model of IPF was successfully constructed and validated. Compared with the commonly used GAP model, the BRP model had better performance and generalization with easily obtainable indicators. The BRP model is suitable for clinical promotion.

External validation and longitudinal application of the DO-GAP index to individualise survival prediction in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis

Background

The Distance-Oxygen-Gender-Age-Physiology (DO-GAP) index has been shown to improve prognostication in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) compared to the Gender-Age-Physiology (GAP) score. We sought to externally validate the DO-GAP index compared to the GAP index for baseline risk assessment in patients with IPF. Additionally, we evaluated the utility of serial change in the DO-GAP index in predicting survival.

Methods

We performed an analysis of patients with IPF from the Pulmonary Fibrosis Foundation-Patient Registry (PFF-PR). Discrimination and calibration of the two models were assessed to predict transplant-free survival and IPF-related mortality. Joint longitudinal time-to-event modelling was utilised to individualise survival prediction based on DO-GAP index trajectory.

Results

There were 516 patients with IPF from the PFF-PR with available demographics, pulmonary function tests, 6-min walk test data and outcomes included in this analysis. The DO-GAP index (C-statistic: 0.73) demonstrated improved discrimination in discerning transplant-free survival compared to the GAP index (C-statistic: 0.67). DO-GAP index calibration was adequate, and the model retained predictive accuracy to identify IPF-related mortality (C-statistic: 0.74). The DO-GAP index was similarly accurate in the subset of patients taking antifibrotic medications. Serial change in the DO-GAP index improved model discrimination (cross-validated area under the curve: 0.83) enabling the personalised prediction of disease trajectory in individual patients.

Conclusion

The DO-GAP index is a simple, validated, multidimensional score that accurately predicts transplant-free survival in patients with IPF and can be adapted longitudinally in individual patients. The DO-GAP may also find use in studies of IPF to risk stratify patients and possibly as a clinical trial end-point.

Machine Learning and BMI Improve the Prognostic Value of GAP Index in Treated IPF Patients

Patients affected by idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) have a high mortality rate in the first 2-5 years from diagnosis. It is therefore necessary to identify a prognostic indicator that can guide the care process. The Gender-Age-Physiology (GAP) index and staging system is an easy-to-calculate prediction tool, widely validated, and largely used in clinical practice to estimate the risk of mortality of IPF patients at 1-3 years. In our study, we analyzed the GAP index through machine learning to assess any improvement in its predictive power in a large cohort of IPF patients treated either with pirfenidone or nintedanib. In addition, we evaluated this event through the integration of additional parameters. As previously reported by Y. Suzuki et al., our data show that inclusion of body mass index (BMI) is the best strategy to reinforce the GAP performance in IPF patients under treatment with currently available anti-fibrotic drugs.

Trajectories and Prognostic Significance of 6-Minute Walk Test Parameters in Fibrotic Interstitial Lung Disease: A Multicenter Study

BACKGROUND

Functional capacity, as measured by the 6-min walk test (6MWT), is often reduced in fibrotic interstitial lung disease (ILD). This study evaluated longitudinal changes and the prognostic significance of 6MWT parameters, and explored change in oxygenation status as a physiological criterion to define disease progression in patients with fibrotic ILD.

RESEARCH QUESTIONS

What are the trajectories and prognostic value of 6MWT parameters in patients with fibrotic ILD?

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

Using prospective registries in Australia and Canada, patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) and non-IPF fibrotic ILD were stratified by the presence of criteria for progressive pulmonary fibrosis (PPF). The cumulative incidence of exertional and resting hypoxemia and changes in 6-min walk distance (6MWD) and composite indices (distance-saturation product and distance-saturation-oxygen product) were determined, with prognostic significance evaluated at the time of meeting criteria for PPF. New-onset exertional or resting hypoxemia was evaluated as another potential criterion for PPF.

RESULTS

Patients with IPF/PPF (n = 126) and non-IPF/PPF (n = 227) had a similar cumulative incidence of exertional hypoxemia and annualized decline in 6MWD and composite indices, which varied across each PPF criterion. Patients with IPF/non-PPF (n = 231) and non-IPF/non-PPF (n = 531) had a significantly lower incidence of hypoxemia than those with IPF/PPF, with an annualized increase in 6MWD and composite indices in the non-IPF/non-PPF group. Exertional or resting hypoxemia at the time of meeting criteria for PPF was independently associated with reduced transplant-free survival in IPF and non-IPF, adjusting for patient demographics and lung function. Adding new-onset exertional or resting hypoxemia as a physiological criterion reduced the median time to development of PPF from 11.2 to 6.7 months in IPF and from 11.7 to 5.6 months in non-IPF in patients who eventually met both definitions (P < .001 for both).

INTERPRETATION

Patients with IPF/PPF and non-IPF/PPF have comparable deterioration in functional capacity. Oxygenation status provides prognostic information in PPF and may assist in defining disease progression in fibrotic ILD.

New prognostic scoring system for mortality in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis by modifying the gender, age, and physiology model with desaturation during the six-minute walk test

Background

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a progressive fibrosing interstitial lung disease (ILD) with variable and heterogeneous clinical course. The GAP (gender, age, and physiology) model had been used to predict mortality in patients with IPF, but does not contain exercise capacity. Therefore, our aim in this study was to develop new prognostic scoring system in the Korea IPF Cohort (KICO) registry.

Materials and methods

This is a retrospective study of Korean patients with IPF in KICO registry from June 2016 to August 2021. We developed new scoring system (the GAP6) based on the GAP model adding nadir saturation of percutaneous oxygen (SpO₂) during six-minute walk test (6MWT) in the KICO registry and compared the efficacy of the GAP and the GAP6 model.

Results

Among 2,412 patients in KICO registry, 966 patients were enrolled. The GAP6 model showed significant prognostic value for mortality between each stage [HR Stage II vs. Stage I = 2.89 (95% CI = 2.38-3.51), HR Stage III vs. Stage II = 2.68 (95% CI = 1.60-4.51)]. In comparison the model performance with area under curve (AUC) using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, the GAP6 model showed a significant improvement for predicting mortality than the GAP model (AUC the GAP vs. the GAP6, 0.646 vs. 0.671, p < 0.0019). Also, the C-index values slightly improved from 0.674 to 0.691 for mortality.

Conclusion

The GAP6 model adding nadir SpO₂ during 6WMT for an indicator of functional capacity improves prediction ability with C-index and AUC. Additional multinational study is needed to confirm these finding and validate the applicability and accuracy of this risk assessment system.

Colchicine Is a Weapon for Managing the Heart Disease Among Interstitial Lung Disease With Viral Infection: Have We Found the Holy Grail?

Background

This study investigated the effect of colchicine use on the risks of heart disease (HD), pericarditis, endocarditis, myocarditis, cardiomyopathy, cardiac arrhythmia, and cardiac failure in patients having interstitial lung disease (ILD) with virus infection (ILD cohort).

Methods

We retrospectively enrolled ILD cohort between 2000 and 2013 from the Longitudinal Health Insurance Database and divided them into colchicine users (n = 12,253) and colchicine non-users (n = 12,253) through propensity score matching. The event of interest was the diagnosis of HD. The incidence of HD was analyzed using multivariate Cox proportional hazards models between colchicine users and the comparison cohort after adjustment for age, sex, medication, comorbidities, and index date based on the time-dependent analysis.

Results

Colchicine users had a significantly lower risk of HD (aHR = 0.87, 95% confidence interval (CI]) = 0.82–0.92) than did the colchicine non-user. For colchicine non-users as the reference, the aHR (95% CI) of the patients who received colchicine of 2–7, 8–30, 31–150, and &gt; 150 days were 0.89 (0.81–0.98), 0.84 (0.76–0.94), 090 (0.80–0.99), and 0.83 (0.74–0.93), respectively; regardless of duration use, the lower risk of HD persisted in colchicine users. The cumulative incidence of HD in colchicine users was significantly lower than that in the colchicine non-users (log-rank p &lt; 0.001).

Conclusion

The addition of short-term or long-term colchicine to standard medical therapy may have benefits to prevent the HD among the ILD patients concurrent with a virus infection or comorbidities even in elderly patients.