Own-price and cross-price elasticities of demand for cigarettes and waterpipe tobacco in three Eastern Mediterranean countries: a volumetric choice experiment

Impact of waterpipe tobacco taxation on consumption, government revenue and premature deaths averted in Jordan, Lebanon and Palestine: a simulation study

INTRODUCTION

Despite the high prevalence of waterpipe tobacco smoking in the Eastern Mediterranean region, evidence supporting its fiscal measures is limited. We modelled the impact of waterpipe tobacco-specific excise taxes on consumption, government revenue and premature deaths averted in Jordan, Lebanon and Palestine.

METHODS

We developed a simulation model using country-specific and market share-specific price, consumption and price elasticity data from WHO, UN Comtrade and nationally representative surveys. We modelled increases to specific excise taxes to meet a 35.9% tax burden on 20 g of waterpipe tobacco in Lebanon and Jordan, in line with the global average, and to double government revenues from excise duties in Palestine, which has surpassed this average.

RESULTS

Specific excise tax was raised by $1.14 ($0.18-$1.32) in Jordan, $2.41 ($0.03-$2.44) in Lebanon (alongside removal of ad valorem taxes) and $2.39 ($1.72-$4.11) in Palestine per 20 g of waterpipe tobacco. Government revenue increased by $126.3 million in Jordan, $53.8 million in Lebanon and $162.4 million in Palestine while waterpipes smoked decreased by 32.4% in Jordan, 71.0% in Lebanon and 16.3% in Palestine. The corresponding numbers of premature deaths averted annually were approximately 162 000; 1 000 000; and 52 000.

DISCUSSION

Increases in waterpipe tobacco-specific excise taxes substantially reduce smoking and increase government revenue and averted premature deaths in Jordan, Lebanon and Palestine. This has positive implications for both public health and financing and should be considered a policy priority.

Participatory Value Evaluation (PVE): A New Preference-Elicitation Method for Decision Making in Healthcare

Participatory value evaluation (PVE) has recently been introduced in the field of health as a new method to elicit stated preferences for public policies. PVE is a method in which respondents in a choice experiment are presented with various policy options and their attributes, and are asked to compose their portfolio of preference given a public-resource constraint. This paper aims to illustrate PVE's potential for informing healthcare decision making and to position it relative to established preference-elicitation methods. We first describe PVE and its theoretical background. Next, by means of a narrative review of the eight existing PVE applications within and outside the health domain, we illustrate the different implementations of the main features of the method. We then compare PVE to several established preference-elicitation methods in terms of the structure and nature of the choice tasks presented to respondents. The portfolio-based choice task in a PVE requires respondents to consider a set of policy alternatives in relation to each other and to make trade-offs subject to one or more constraints, which more closely resembles decision making by policymakers. When using a flexible budget constraint, respondents can trade-off their private income with public expenditures. Relative to other methods, a PVE may be cognitively more demanding and is less efficient; however, it seems a promising complementary method for the preference-based assessment of health policies. Further research into the feasibility and validity of the method is required before researchers and policymakers can fully appreciate the advantages and disadvantages of the PVE as a preference-elicitation method.

Economic research in waterpipe tobacco smoking: reflections on data, demand, taxes, equity and health modelling

Economic evaluation of tobacco control policies is common in high-income settings and mainly focuses on cigarette smoking. Evidence suggests that increasing the excise tax of tobacco products is a consistently effective tool for reducing tobacco use and is an efficient mechanism for increasing government revenues. However, less research has been conducted in low/middle-income countries where other tobacco forms are common. This paper presents insights from our work on the economics of waterpipe tobacco smoking conducted in the Eastern Mediterranean Region where waterpipe smoking originated and is highly prevalent. The specific areas related to economics of waterpipe smoking considered herein are: price elasticity, taxation, government revenue, expenditure and healthcare costs. This paper aims to provide practical guidance for researchers investigating the economics of waterpipe tobacco with potential implications for other novel tobacco products. We present lessons learnt across five thematic areas: data, demand, taxes, equity and health modelling. We also highlight knowledge gaps to be addressed in future research. Research implications include designing comprehensive assessment tools that investigate heterogeneity in waterpipe smoking patterns; accounting for cross-price elasticity of demand with other tobacco products; exploring the change in waterpipe tobacco smoking in response to a tax increase and analysing the equity impact of waterpipe tobacco control interventions.

Health and economic impacts of introducing specific excise tax to waterpipe tobacco in Egypt: a simulation model of simple and mixed tax policy approaches

INTRODUCTION

Waterpipe tobacco is taxed at half the rate of cigarettes in Egypt and, unlike cigarettes, does not have a specific excise component. We aimed to simulate the introduction of a specific excise tax on waterpipe tobacco consumption, premature deaths and government waterpipe tobacco revenue in Egypt.

METHODS

We took model inputs from the latest available data on consumption, market shares and market share prices, price elasticities of demand, tax structure and from discussions with government officials. We modelled increases to specific excise to produce a 45%, 55%, 65% and 75% tax burden and compared a simple (specific only) structure with a mixed (specific and ad valorem) structure.

RESULTS

Under the simple approach, introducing a US$2.1 specific tax would result in a 75% tax burden with 67% fewer waterpipe tobacco units smoked, 1 004 604 averted premature deaths and a 236% increase in government revenue relative to the current tax structure. At the 75% tax burden, the simple approach resulted in 1.5% fewer waterpipe tobacco units consumed, 9000 more averted premature deaths and 12.7% more government revenue compared with the mixed approach. Results for other tax burdens are presented and remained robust to sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

Introducing a specific excise tax on waterpipe tobacco in Egypt can yield considerable government revenue and public health gains. We recommend the simple approach, in line with the WHO recommendations, which produces greater economic and public health gains than the mixed approach and is easier to administer for the Egyptian government.

Monitoring and Combating Waterpipe Tobacco Smoking Through Surveillance and Taxation

Waterpipe tobacco smoking (WTS) is a traditional tobacco use method that originated in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) and has resurged in recent decades. WTS rates in the EMR are the highest worldwide, especially among youth, exceeding cigarette-smoking rates in select jurisdictions. Despite its documented harm, the growing prevalence of WTS has been met with a poor regulatory response globally. At the epicenter of the WTS epidemic, countries in the EMR are in urgent need of effective tobacco control strategies that consider the particularities of WTS. A roundtable session, titled "Monitoring and Combating WTS Through Taxation and the Global Tobacco Surveillance System (GTSS)," was held as part of the 7th Eastern Mediterranean Public Health Network's regional conference. The session provided an overview of evidence to date about WTS policy control, the taxation of WTS, volumetric choice experiments for tobacco control research, and monitoring WTS patterns and control policies among adults and youth through the GTSS. The session highlighted the need to update the regulation of WTS in the current global tobacco control policy frameworks and the need for developing tailored, evidence-based, and WTS-specific regulations to complement current tobacco control policy frameworks. Raising taxes to increase the price of tobacco products is the single most effective tobacco control measure, and these taxes can fund expanded government health programs. The effectiveness of taxation can be measured via volumetric choice experiments, which allow for the estimation of a complete set of own-price and cross-price elasticities that are instrumental for fiscal policy simulations. Finally, the surveillance of WTS (for example, through the GTSS) is critical to informing policy and decision makers. The Global Youth Tobacco Survey (GYTS) and Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS) are 2 GTSS products that provide nationally representative data among students aged 13-15 years and persons ≥15 years, respectively.

Gender differences in the price elasticity of demand for waterpipe and cigarette smoking in Lebanon, Jordan and Palestine: a volumetric choice experiment

OBJECTIVES

This study assessed the extent to which the elasticity of cigarette and waterpipe tobacco products differs between men and women. We also explored the levels of substitution and complementarity in tobacco products among men and women.

SETTING

The study examines tobacco elasticities in three Arab countries: Lebanon, Jordan and the West Bank of Palestine.

PARTICIPANTS

We used data from nationally representative surveys of adults aged ≥18 years in Lebanon (n=1680), Jordan (n=1925) and Palestine (n=1679). The proportion of women was 50.0% of the sample in Lebanon and Palestine, and 44.6% in Jordan.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

A zero-inflated Poisson regression model estimated own-price and cross-price elasticities for two variations of cigarettes and five variations of waterpipe tobacco products. Elasticities were measured based on eight scenarios of prices.

RESULTS

Demand for waterpipe tobacco products was elastic for both men and women. The cross-price elasticities in the three countries indicate the existence of substitution between cigarettes and waterpipe products and by different varieties within each of the two tobacco products. Gender differences varied across the three countries whereby higher cross-price elasticities were observed for women in Jordan and Palestine. For example, the price elasticity for discount waterpipe was -1.4 and -0.6 for women and men in Jordan, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Results on the elasticity of demand for tobacco products and the existence of substitution between tobacco products reveal the higher responsiveness of men and women to changes in tobacco prices. This should be taken into consideration in tobacco control strategies particularly when reducing tobacco consumption via taxation policies.

Novel Insights into Young Adults' Perceived Effectiveness of Waterpipe Tobacco-Specific Pictorial Health Warning Labels in Lebanon: Implications for Tobacco Control Policy

This study aims to explore the perceived effectiveness of waterpipe (WP) tobacco specific health warning labels (HWLs) among young adult WP smokers and nonsmokers in Lebanon. Before participating in focus group discussions, participants (n = 66; WP smokers n = 30; nonsmokers n = 36; age 18-33) completed a brief survey to rate the effectiveness of 12 HWLs' and rank them according to four risk themes (WP health effects, WP harm to others, WP-specific harm, and WP harm compared to cigarettes). Differences in HWLs ratings by WP smoking status were examined and the top-ranked HWL in each theme were identified. HWLs depicting mouth cancer and harm to babies were rated as the most effective by both WP smokers and non-smokers. WP smokers rated HWLs which depicted harm to children and infants as more effective than non-smokers. The top-ranked HWLs for perceived overall effectiveness were those depicting "oral cancer", "harm to babies", "orally transmitted diseases" and "mouth cancer". HWLs depicting oral lesions and harm to babies were rated as most effective, while HWLs showing the harmful effects of WP secondhand smoke on infants and children were rated as less effective by nonsmokers compared to smokers. Our study provides evidence on the potential effectiveness of HWLs for further evaluation in Lebanon and the Eastern Mediterranean region. The results will inform and guide the development and implementation of tobacco control policy.