Advances in breeding phenology outpace latitudinal and elevational shifts for North American birds tracking temperature

Terrestrial species can respond to a warming climate in multiple ways, including shifting in space (via latitude or elevation) and time (via phenology). Evidence for such shifts is often assessed independent of other temperature-tracking mechanisms; critically, no study has compared shifts across all three spatiotemporal dimensions. Here we used two continental-scale monitoring databases to estimate trends in the breeding latitude (311 species), elevation (251 species) and phenology (111 species) of North American landbirds over 27 years, with a shared pool of 102 species. We measured the magnitude of shifts and compared them relative to average regional warming (that is, shift ratios). Species shifted poleward (1.1 km per year, mean shift ratio 11%) and to higher elevations (1.2 m per year, mean shift ratio 17%), while also shifting their breeding phenology earlier (0.08 days per year, mean shift ratio 28%). These general trends belied substantial variation among species, with some species shifting faster than climate, whereas others shifted more slowly or in the opposite direction. Across the three dimensions (n = 102), birds cumulatively tracked temperature at 33% of current warming rates, 64% of which was driven by advances in breeding phenology as opposed to geographical shifts. A narrow focus on spatial dimensions of climate tracking may underestimate the responses of birds to climate change; phenological shifts may offer an alternative for birds-and probably other organisms-to conserve their thermal niche in a warming world.

A test for microbiome-mediated rescue via host phenotypic plasticity in Daphnia

Phenotypic plasticity is a primary mechanism by which organismal phenotypes shift in response to the environment. Host-associated microbiomes often exhibit considerable shifts in response to environmental variation and these shifts could facilitate host phenotypic plasticity, adaptation, or rescue populations from extinction. However, it is unclear how much shifts in microbiome composition contribute to host phenotypic plasticity, limiting our knowledge of the underlying mechanisms of plasticity and, ultimately, the fate of populations inhabiting changing environments. In this study, we examined phenotypic responses and microbiome composition in 20 genetically distinct Daphnia magna clones exposed to non-toxic and toxic diets containing Microcystis , a cosmopolitan cyanobacteria and common stressor for Daphnia. Daphnia exhibited significant plasticity in survival, reproduction, and population growth rates in response to Microcystis exposure. However, the effects of Microcystis exposure on the Daphnia microbiome were limited, with the primary effect being differences in abundance observed across five bacterial families. Moreover, there was no significant correlation between the magnitude of microbiome shifts and host phenotypic plasticity. Our results suggest that microbiome composition played a negligible role in driving host phenotypic plasticity or microbiome-mediated rescue.

One sentence summary

Daphnia exhibits considerable plasticity in individual and population-level responses to a cosmopolitan stressor, yet shifts in microbiome composition are not correlated with the magnitude of this plasticity.

Phylogenetic climatic niche evolution and diversification of the Neurergus species (Salamandridae) in the Irano-Anatolian biodiversity hotspot

This study explores how climate variables influenced the evolution and diversification of Neurergus newts within the Irano-Anatolian biodiversity hotspot. We use a dated phylogenetic tree and climatic niche models to analyze their evolutionary history and ecological preferences. Using genetic data from nuclear (KIAA) and mitochondrial (16s and 12s) genes, we estimate divergence times and identify four major Neurergus clades. The initial speciation event occurred approximately 11.3 million years ago, coinciding with the uplift of the Zagros and Anatolian mountains. This geological transformation isolated newt populations, likely triggering the first speciation event. By integrating potential geographic distribution with climate variables, we reconstruct ancestral niche occupancy profiles. This highlights the critical roles of temperature and precipitation in shaping Neurergus habitat preferences and distribution. We observe both phylogenetic niche conservatism and divergence, with niche divergence playing a dominant role in diversification. This research emphasizes the complex interplay of geography, climate, and ecology in speciation and the vulnerability of isolated mountain newt populations to environmental changes.

The coevolutionary consequences of biodiversity change

Coevolutionary selection is a powerful process shaping species interactions and biodiversity. Anthropogenic global environmental change is reshaping planetary biodiversity, including by altering the structure and intensity of interspecific interactions. However, remarkably little is understood of how coevolutionary selection is changing in the process. Here, we outline three interrelated pathways - change in evolutionary potential, change in community composition, and shifts in interaction trait distributions - that are expected to redirect coevolutionary selection under biodiversity change. Assessing how both ecological and evolutionary rules governing species interactions are disrupted under anthropogenic global change is of paramount importance to understand the past, present, and future of Earth's biodiversity.

Variation in near-surface soil temperature drives plant assemblage differentiation across aspect

Quantifying assemblage variation across environmental gradients provides insight into the ecological and evolutionary mechanisms that differentiate assemblages locally within a larger climate regime. We assessed how vascular plant functional composition and diversity varied across microenvironment to identify ecological differences in assemblages in a mountainous fieldsite in northeastern Utah, USA. Then, we looked at how life-history strategies and information about phylogenetic differences affect the relationship between functional metrics and environment. We found less functionally dispersed assemblages that were shorter and more resource-conservative on south-facing slopes where intra-annual soil temperature was hotter and more variable. In contrast, we found more functionally dispersed assemblages, that were taller and more resource-acquisitive on north-facing slopes where intra-annual temperature was cooler and less variable. Herbaceous and woody perennials drove these trends. Additionally, including information about phylogenetic differences in a dispersion metric indicated that phylogeny accounts for traits we did not measure. At this fieldsite, soil temperature acts as an environmental filter across aspect. If soil temperature increases and becomes more variable, intra-annually, the function of north- versus south-facing assemblages may be at risk for contrasting reasons. On south-facing slopes, assemblages may not have the variance in functional diversity needed to respond to more intense, stressful conditions. Conversely, assemblages on north-facing slopes may not have the resource-conservative strategies needed to persist if temperatures become hotter and more variable intra-annually. Given these results, we advocate for the inclusion of aspect differentiation in studies seeking to understand species and assemblage shifts in response to changing climate conditions.

Phylogenetic conservatism and coordination in traits of Chinese woody endemic flora

Range-limited endemic species, often labeled as endangered due to their low adaptability to climate change, exhibit unclear evolutionary mechanisms influencing their distribution. This study explores the relationship between leaf length, maximum height, and seed diameter and their linkage to phylogeny and climate in the macroecology of 1,370 woody endemics. Using Bayesian analytical method that allows partitioning phylogenetic and environmental variances and covariance, we revealed moderate to high phylogenetic signals in these traits, indicating evolutionary constraints potentially impacting climate change adaptability. The study uncovered a phylogenetically conserved coordination between height and leaf length which showed to be independent of macroecological patterns of temperature and precipitation. These findings emphasize the role of phylogenetic ancestry in shaping the distribution of woody endemics, highlighting the need for prioritized in-situ conservation and providing insights for ex situ conservation strategies.

Warming effects on lizard gut microbiome depend on habitat connectivity

Climate warming and landscape fragmentation are both factors well known to threaten biodiversity and to generate species responses and adaptation. However, the impact of warming and fragmentation interplay on organismal responses remains largely under-explored, especially when it comes to gut symbionts, which may play a key role in essential host functions and traits by extending its functional and genetic repertoire. Here, we experimentally examined the combined effects of climate warming and habitat connectivity on the gut bacterial communities of the common lizard (Zootoca vivipara) over three years. While the strength of effects varied over the years, we found that a 2°C warmer climate decreases lizard gut microbiome diversity in isolated habitats. However, enabling connectivity among habitats with warmer and cooler climates offset or even reversed warming effects. The warming effects and the association between host dispersal behaviour and microbiome diversity appear to be a potential driver of this interplay. This study suggests that preserving habitat connectivity will play a key role in mitigating climate change impacts, including the diversity of the gut microbiome, and calls for more studies combining multiple anthropogenic stressors when predicting the persistence of species and communities through global changes.

Transgenerational epigenetic inheritance increases trait variation but is not adaptive

Understanding processes that can produce adaptive phenotypic shifts in response to rapid environmental change is critical to reducing biodiversity loss. The ubiquity of environmentally induced epigenetic marks has led to speculation that epigenetic inheritance could potentially enhance population persistence in response to environmental change. Yet, the magnitude and fitness consequences of epigenetic marks carried beyond maternal inheritance are largely unknown. Here, we tested how transgenerational epigenetic inheritance (TEI) shapes the phenotypic response of Daphnia clones to the environmental stressor Microcystis. We split individuals from each of eight genotypes into exposure and control treatments (F0 generation) and tracked the fitness of their descendants to the F3 generation. We found transgenerational epigenetic exposure to Microcystis led to reduced rates of survival and individual growth and no consistent effect on offspring production. Increase in trait variance in the F3 relative to F0 generations suggests potential for heritable bet hedging driven by TEI, which could impact population dynamics. Our findings are counter to the working hypothesis that TEI is a generally adaptive mechanism likely to prevent extinction for populations inhabiting rapidly changing environments.

Extinction drives recent thermophilization but does not trigger homogenization in forest understorey

The ongoing climate change is triggering plant community thermophilization. This selection process ought to shift community composition towards species adapted to warmer climates but may also lead to biotic homogenization. The link between thermophilization and homogenization and the community dynamics that drive them (colonization and extinction) remain unknown but is critical for understanding community responses under rapid environmental change. We used 14,167 pairs of plots to study shifts in plant community during 10 years of rising temperature in 80 forest ecoregions of France. We computed community mean thermal optimum (thermophilization) and Δβ-diversity (homogenization) for each ecoregion and partitioned these changes into extinction and colonization dynamics of cold- and warm-adapted species. Forest understorey communities thermophilized on average by 0.12 °C per decade and up to 0.20 °C per decade in warm ecoregions. This rate was entirely driven by extinction dynamics. Extinction of cold-adapted species was a driver of homogenization but it was compensated for by the colonization of rare species and the extinction of common species, resulting in the absence of an apparent homogenization trend. Here we show a dieback of present cold-adapted species rather than an adaptation of communities via the arrival of warm-adapted species, with a mutually cancelling effect on β-diversity. These results suggest that a future loss of biodiversity and delayed biotic homogenization should be considered.

Climate change increases threat to plant diversity in tropical forests of Central America and southern Mexico

Global biodiversity is negatively affected by anthropogenic climate change. As species distributions shift due to increasing temperatures and precipitation fluctuations, many species face the risk of extinction. In this study, we explore the expected trend for plant species distributions in Central America and southern Mexico under two alternative Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) portraying moderate (RCP4.5) and severe (RCP8.5) increases in greenhouse gas emissions, combined with two species dispersal assumptions (limited and unlimited), for the 2061-2080 climate forecast. Using an ensemble approach employing three techniques to generate species distribution models, we classified 1924 plant species from the region's (sub)tropical forests according to IUCN Red List categories. To infer the spatial and taxonomic distribution of species' vulnerability under each scenario, we calculated the proportion of species in a threat category (Vulnerable, Endangered, Critically Endangered) at a pixel resolution of 30 arc seconds and by family. Our results show a high proportion (58-67%) of threatened species among the four experimental scenarios, with the highest proportion under RCP8.5 and limited dispersal. Threatened species were concentrated in montane areas and avoided lowland areas where conditions are likely to be increasingly inhospitable. Annual precipitation and diurnal temperature range were the main drivers of species' relative vulnerability. Our approach identifies strategic montane areas and taxa of conservation concern that merit urgent inclusion in management plans to improve climatic resilience in the Mesoamerican biodiversity hotspot. Such information is necessary to develop policies that prioritize vulnerable elements and mitigate threats to biodiversity under climate change.

Habitat potential modelling and the effect of climate change on the current and future distribution of three Thymus species in Iran using MaxEnt

Over the course of a few decades, climate change has caused a rapid and alarming reshaping of species habitats, resulting in mass extinction, particularly among sensitive species. In order to investigate the effects of climate change on species distribution and assess habitat suitability, researchers have developed species distribution models (SDMs) that estimate present and future species distribution. In West Asia, thyme species such as T. fedtschenkoi, T. pubescens, and T. transcaucasicus are rich in thymol and carvacrol, and are commonly used as herbal tea, spice, flavoring agents, and medicinal plants. This study aims to model the distribution of these Thymus species in Iran using the MaxEnt model under two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) for the years 2050 and 2070. The objective is to identify the crucial bioclimatic (n = 5), edaphic (n = 1), and topographic (n = 3) variables that influence their distribution and predict how their distribution might change under various climate scenarios. The findings reveal that the most significant variable affecting T. fedtschenkoi and T. pubescens is altitude, while soil organic carbon content is the primary factor influencing the distribution of T. transcaucasicus. The MaxEnt modeling demonstrates excellent performance, as indicated by all the area under the curve (AUC) values exceeding 0.9. Based on the projections, it is expected that these three thyme species will experience negative area changes in the coming years. These results can serve as a valuable tool for developing adaptive management strategies aimed at enhancing protection and sustainable utilization in the context of global climate change. Special attention should be given to conserving T. fedtschenkoi, T. pubescens, and T. transcaucasicus due to their significant habitat loss in the future.

Micro-evolutionary response of spring migration timing in a wild seabird

In the context of rapid climate change, phenological advance is a key adaptation for which evidence is accumulating across taxa. Among vertebrates, phenotypic plasticity is known to underlie most of this phenological change, while evidence for micro-evolution is very limited and challenging to obtain. In this study, we quantified phenotypic and genetic trends in timing of spring migration using 8,032 dates of arrival at the breeding grounds obtained from observations on 1,715 individual common terns (Sterna hirundo) monitored across 27 years, and tested whether these trends were consistent with predictions of a micro-evolutionary response to selection. We observed a strong phenotypic advance of 9.3 days in arrival date, of which c. 5% was accounted for by an advance in breeding values. The Breeder's equation and Robertson's Secondary Theorem of Selection predicted qualitatively similar evolutionary responses to selection, and these theoretical predictions were largely consistent with our estimated genetic pattern. Overall, our study provides rare evidence for micro-evolution underlying (part of) an adaptive response to climate change in the wild, and illustrates how a combination of adaptive micro-evolution and phenotypic plasticity facilitated a shift towards earlier spring migration in this free-living population of common terns.

Variation of floristic diversity, community composition, endemism, and conservation status of tree species in tropical rainforests of Sri Lanka across a wide altitudinal gradient

Tropical rainforests in Sri Lanka are biodiversity hotspots, which are sensitive to anthropogenic disturbance and long-term climate change. We assessed the diversity, endemism and conservation status of these rainforests across a wide altitudinal range (100-2200 m above sea level) via a complete census of all trees having ≥ 10 cm diameter at breast height in ten one-hectare permanent sampling plots. The numbers of tree families, genera and species and community-scale tree diversity decreased with increasing altitude. Tree diversity, species richness and total basal area per ha across the altitudinal range were positively associated with long-term means of maximum temperature, annual rainfall and solar irradiance. Percentage of endangered species increased with increasing altitude and was positively associated with cumulative maximum soil water deficit, day-night temperature difference and high anthropogenic disturbance. Percentage of endemic species was greater in the lowland rainforests than in high-altitude montane forests. Nearly 85% of the species were recorded in three or less plots, which indicated substantial altitudinal differentiation in their distributions. Less than 10 individuals were recorded in 41% of the endemic species and 45% of the native species, which underlined the need for urgent conservation efforts across the whole altitudinal range.

A species' response to spatial climatic variation does not predict its response to climate change

The dominant paradigm for assessing ecological responses to climate change assumes that future states of individuals and populations can be predicted by current, species-wide performance variation across spatial climatic gradients. However, if the fates of ecological systems are better predicted by past responses to in situ climatic variation through time, this current analytical paradigm may be severely misleading. Empirically testing whether spatial or temporal climate responses better predict how species respond to climate change has been elusive, largely due to restrictive data requirements. Here, we leverage a newly collected network of ponderosa pine tree-ring time series to test whether statistically inferred responses to spatial versus temporal climatic variation better predict how trees have responded to recent climate change. When compared to observed tree growth responses to climate change since 1980, predictions derived from spatial climatic variation were wrong in both magnitude and direction. This was not the case for predictions derived from climatic variation through time, which were able to replicate observed responses well. Future climate scenarios through the end of the 21st century exacerbated these disparities. These results suggest that the currently dominant paradigm of forecasting the ecological impacts of climate change based on spatial climatic variation may be severely misleading over decadal to centennial timescales.

Prolonged ecological changes can affect morphometrics and gene expression profile? Focusing on Hsp-70 and NLHS-induced Hsp-70 of Artemia urmiana

BACKGROUND

In recent years, many aquatic ecosystems, including Urmia Lake, have undergone severe ecological tensions. This lake, the largest natural habitat of the brine shrimp Artemia urmiana, has progressively desiccated and its salinity has dramatically increased over the last three decades. In the face of the long period environmental stresses, understanding the adaptation and ecological plasticity mechanisms is the most interesting challenges in genetic and applied ecology. These mechanisms may probably be driven by inducing expression of some genes involved in adaptation such as Hsp-70 and also adjusting morphological parameters. But they are yet to be understood. Hence, the present work aimed to study the mechanisms, along with testing the hypothesis that non-lethal heat shocked nauplii originating from drought period can evoke Hsp-70 expression more than those from rainy period.

METHODS

This study measured and analyzed morphometrical characters of adult male and female Artemia urmiana over three decades. Then, the influence of three-decade ecological crisis on Hsp-70 and non-lethal heat shock (NLHS)-induced Hsp-70 expression levels of nauplii of Artemia urmiana habiting Urmia Lake using Real-time PCR technique, based on cyst collections in 1994 (rainy period) to 2020 (drought period), was evaluated.

RESULTS

The morphometrics results showed that the morphological characters were significantly shrunk in 2020 compared to 1994 (CI 95%, p < 0.05). Furthermore, our results depicted that, Hsp-70 expression level was significantly upregulated in response to the prolonged ecological crisis, (CI 95%, P < 0.0001), and also interestingly, the nauplii exposed to longe-term ecological crisis (belong to 2020) were able to increase Hsp-70 expression more than other ones in response to environmental stressors including heat.

CONCLUSIONS

The present results showed the involvement of Hsp-70 in the adaptation of Artemia urmiana to long term ecological alteration at the cost of shrinking morphometric parameters.

What Can Evolutionary History Tell Us about the Functioning of Ecological Communities? The ASN Presidential Debate

AbstractIn January 2018, Sharon Strauss, then president of the American Society of Naturalists, organized a debate on the following topic: does evolutionary history inform the current functioning of ecological communities? The debaters-Ives, Lau, Mayfield, and Tobias-presented pro and con arguments, caricatured in standard debating format. Numerous examples show that both recent microevolutionary and longer-term macroevolutionary history are important to the ecological functioning of communities. On the other hand, many other examples illustrate that the evolutionary history of communities or community members does not influence ecological function, or at least not very much. This article aims to provide a provocative discussion of the consistent and conflicting patterns that emerge in the study of contemporary and historical evolutionary influences on community function, as well as to identify questions for further study. It is intended as a thought-provoking exercise to explore this complex field, specifically addressing (1) key assumptions and how they can lead us astray and (2) issues that need additional study. The debaters all agree that evolutionary history can inform us about at least some aspects of community function. The underlying question at the root of the debate, however, is how the fields of ecology and evolution can most profitably collaborate to provide a deeper and broader understanding of ecological communities.

Reconciling the variability in the biological response of marine invertebrates to climate change

As climate change increases the rate of environmental change and the frequency and intensity of disturbance events, selective forces intensify. However, given the complicated interplay between plasticity and selection for ecological - and thus evolutionary - outcomes, understanding the proximate signals, molecular mechanisms and the role of environmental history becomes increasingly critical for eco-evolutionary forecasting. To enhance the accuracy of our forecasting, we must characterize environmental signals at a level of resolution that is relevant to the organism, such as the microhabitat it inhabits and its intracellular conditions, while also quantifying the biological responses to these signals in the appropriate cells and tissues. In this Commentary, we provide historical context to some of the long-standing challenges in global change biology that constrain our capacity for eco-evolutionary forecasting using reef-building corals as a focal model. We then describe examples of mismatches between the scales of external signals relative to the sensors and signal transduction cascades that initiate and maintain cellular responses. Studying cellular responses at this scale is crucial because these responses are the basis of acclimation to changing environmental conditions and the potential for environmental 'memory' of prior or historical conditions through molecular mechanisms. To challenge the field, we outline some unresolved questions and suggest approaches to align experimental work with an organism's perception of the environment; these aspects are discussed with respect to human interventions.

Post-glacial range formation of temperate forest understorey herbs - Insights from a spatio-temporally explicit modelling approach

Aim

Our knowledge of Pleistocene refugia and post-glacial recolonization routes of forest understorey plants is still very limited. The geographical ranges of these species are often rather narrow and show highly idiosyncratic, often fragmented patterns indicating either narrow and species-specific ecological tolerances or strong dispersal limitations. However, the relative roles of these factors are inherently difficult to disentangle.

Location

Central and south-eastern Europe.

Time period

17,100 BP - present.

Major taxa studied

Five understorey herbs of European beech forests: Aposeris foetida, Cardamine trifolia, Euphorbia carniolica, Hacquetia epipactis and Helleborus niger.

Methods

We used spatio-temporally explicit modelling to reconstruct the post-glacial range dynamics of the five forest understorey herbs. We varied niche requirements, demographic rates and dispersal abilities across plausible ranges and simulated the spread of species from potential Pleistocene refugia identified by phylogeographical analyses. Then we identified the parameter settings allowing for the most accurate reconstruction of their current geographical ranges.

Results

We found a largely homogenous pattern of optimal parameter settings among species. Broad ecological niches had to be combined with very low but non-zero rates of long-distance dispersal via chance events and low rates of seed dispersal over moderate distances by standard dispersal vectors. However, long-distance dispersal events, although rare, led to high variation among replicated simulation runs.

Main conclusions

Small and fragmented ranges of many forest understorey species are best explained by a combination of broad ecological niches and rare medium- and long-distance dispersal events. Stochasticity is thus an important determinant of current species ranges, explaining the idiosyncratic distribution patterns of the study species despite strong similarities in refugia, ecological tolerances and dispersal abilities.

Overwintering and breeding patterns of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) in coastal plain habitats of the southeastern USA

Understanding variability in species' traits can inform our understanding of their ecology and aid in the development of management and conservation strategies. Monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) are native to the western hemisphere and are well-known for their long-distance migrations but have experienced significant population declines in recent decades. Here we use a 5-year capture-mark-recapture dataset to compare monarch distributions, mating activity, and larval host plant use between two coastal plain habitats in South Carolina, USA. We observed seasonally specific habitat use, with maritime habitats serving as overwintering areas while nearby inland swamps support significant breeding in spring, summer, and fall seasons due to an abundance of aquatic milkweed (Asclepias perennis). We also observed mating activity by fall migrating monarchs and their use of swallow-wort (Pattalias palustre) in the spring as an important larval host plant in maritime habitats. This phenology and habitat use of monarchs diverges from established paradigms and suggest that a distinct population segment of monarchs may exist, with significance for understanding the conservation status of monarch butterflies and associated habitats in eastern North America. Further research should explore how monarchs along the Atlantic coast of North America relate to other eastern monarch populations.

Ecological response of an umbrella species to changing climate and land use: Habitat conservation for Asiatic black bear in the Sichuan-Chongqing Region, Southwestern China

Climate and land use changes are increasingly recognized as major threats to global biodiversity, with significant impacts on wildlife populations and ecosystems worldwide. The study of how climate and land use changes impact wildlife is of paramount importance for advancing our understanding of ecological processes in the face of global environmental change, informing conservation planning and management, and identifying the mechanisms and thresholds that underlie species' responses to shifting climatic conditions. The Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus) is a prominent umbrella species in a biodiversity hotspot in Southwestern China, and its conservation is vital for safeguarding sympatric species. However, the extent to which this species' habitat may respond to global climate and land use changes is poorly understood, underscoring the need for further investigation. Our goal was to anticipate the potential impacts of upcoming climate and land use changes on the distribution and dispersal patterns of the Asiatic black bear in the Sichuan-Chongqing Region. We used MaxEnt modeling to evaluate habitat vulnerability using three General Circulation Models (GCMs) and three scenarios of climate and land use changes. Subsequently, we used Circuit Theory to identify prospective dispersal paths. Our results revealed that the current area of suitable habitat for the Asiatic black bear was 225,609.59 km2 (comprising 39.69% of the total study area), but was expected to decrease by -53.1%, -49.48%, and -28.55% under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 projection scenarios, respectively. Across all three GCMs, the distribution areas and dispersal paths of the Asiatic black bear were projected to shift to higher altitudes and constrict by the 2070s. Furthermore, the results indicated that the density of dispersal paths would decrease, while the resistance to dispersal would increase across the study area. In order to protect the Asiatic black bear, it is essential to prioritize the protection of climate refugia and dispersal paths. Our findings provide a sound scientific foundation for the allocation of such protected areas in the Sichuan-Chongqing Region that are both effective and adaptive in the face of ongoing global climate and land use changes.

Population-Based Evidence of Climate Change Adaptation in an Endangered Plant Endemic to a Biodiversity Hotspot

Climate change is expected to impact both the population structure and geographic distribution of plants. Species distribution models are widely used to assess range shifts and the vulnerability of plants to climate change. Despite the abundance of modeling studies, little is known about how existing populations respond to climate change. We investigated the demographic structure and vulnerability to climate change in Anemone moorei, a sub-shrub with a highly restricted distribution in a biodiversity hotspot. We improved the distribution knowledge through intensive field work. We conducted a census of stem length as a proxy for age for all known populations. We used ensemble forecasting to project distributions considering 10 future climate scenarios and developed a novel climate change vulnerability index for the species' distribution. We found that the mean stem length decreases and the proportion of young plants increases, while the size of fruiting plants decreases as A. moorei faces greater climate change vulnerability. We interpret these results as evidence for the onset of recent adaptation to climate change, consisting of reduced adult longevity and an earlier onset of reproduction. As a result of these changes, the proportion of juveniles in the population increases.

Integrating traditional ecological knowledge into US public land management: Knowledge gaps and research priorities

Traditional Ecological Knowledge (TEK) is an understanding of natural systems acquired through long-term human interactions with particular landscapes. Traditional knowledge systems complement western scientific disciplines by providing a holistic assessment of ecosystem dynamics and extending the time horizon of ecological observations. Integration of TEK into land management is a key priority of numerous groups, including the United Nations and US public land management agencies; however, TEK principles have rarely been enshrined in national-level US policy or planning. We review over 20 years of TEK literature to describe key applications of TEK to ecological understanding, conservation, restoration and land management generally. By identifying knowledge gaps, we highlight research avenues to support the integration of TEK into US public land management, in order to enhance conservation approaches and participation of historically underrepresented groups, particularly American Indian Tribes, in the stewardship of ancestral lands critical to the practice of living cultural traditions.

Evolutionary rescue and geographic range shifts under climate change for global amphibians

By the end of this century, human-induced climate change and habitat loss may drastically reduce biodiversity, with expected effects on many amphibian lineages. One of these effects is the shift in the geographic distributions of species when tracking suitable climates. Here, we employ a macroecological approach to dynamically model geographic range shifts by coupling ecological niche models and eco-evolutionary mechanisms, aiming to assess the probability of evolutionary rescue (i.e., rapid adaptation) and dispersal under climate change. Evolutionary models estimated the probability of population persistence by adapting to changes in the temperature influenced by precipitation in the following decades, while compensating the fitness reduction and maintaining viable populations in the new climates. In addition, we evaluated emerging patterns of species richness and turnover at the assemblage level. Our approach was able to identify which amphibian populations among 7,193 species at the global scale could adapt to temperature changes or disperse into suitable regions in the future. Without evolutionary adaptation and dispersal, 47.7% of the species could go extinct until the year 2,100, whereas adding both processes will slightly decrease this extinction rate to 36.5%. Although adaptation to climate is possible for populations in about 25.7% of species, evolutionary rescue is the only possibility to avoid extinction in 4.2% of them. Dispersal will allow geographic range shifts for 49.7% of species, but only 6.5% may avoid extinction by reaching climatically suitable environments. This reconfiguration of species distributions and their persistence creates new assemblage-level patterns at the local scale. Temporal beta-diversity across the globe showed relatively low levels of species turnover, mainly due to the loss of species. Despite limitations with obtaining data, our approach provides more realistic assessments of species responses to ongoing climate changes. It shows that, although dispersal and evolutionary rescue may attenuate species losses, they are not enough to avoid a significant reduction of species’ geographic ranges in the future. Actions that guarantee a higher potential of adaptation (e.g., genetic diversity through larger population sizes) and increased connectivity for species dispersion to track suitable climates become essential, increasing the resilience of biodiversity to climate change.

The effect of precipitation timing on phylogenetic and functional community structure in a semi-arid steppe

Changes in the amount and timing of precipitation may affect plant species coexistence. However, little is known about how these changes in precipitation structure plant communities. Here, we conducted a 6-year field precipitation manipulation experiment in the semi-arid steppe of Inner Mongolia, China, to assess the importance of species extinction and colonization in community assembly by incorporating information on phylogenetic and functional relatedness. Our results demonstrated that the decline in plant species richness under decreasing precipitation in the late and entire growing season could be attributed to a decrease in species colonization and an increase in species loss, respectively. The increase in species richness under increasing precipitation in the late growing season was mainly caused by increases in colonizing species. The loss of species that were more closely related to other residents under decreasing precipitation in the late growing season did not alter patterns of phylogenetic overdispersion, and the colonization of species that were more distantly related to residents under increasing precipitation in the late growing season shifted functional relatedness from clustering to randomness. Increasing precipitation may weaken the strength of environmental filtering induced by water stress in this semi-arid steppe and thus increase the probability of successful colonization of functionally dissimilar species relative to residents. Our study suggests that incorporating information on the functional and phylogenetic relatedness of locally lost resident species and the colonization of new species into analyses of community assembly processes can provide new insights into the general responses of plant communities to global change.

Exploring the response of a key Mediterranean gorgonian to heat stress across biological and spatial scales

Understanding the factors and processes that shape intra-specific sensitivity to heat stress is fundamental to better predicting the vulnerability of benthic species to climate change. Here, we investigate the response of a habitat-forming Mediterranean octocoral, the red gorgonian Paramuricea clavata (Risso, 1826) to thermal stress at multiple biological and geographical scales. Samples from eleven P. clavata populations inhabiting four localities separated by hundreds to more than 1500 km of coast and with contrasting thermal histories were exposed to a critical temperature threshold (25 °C) in a common garden experiment in aquaria. Ten of the 11 populations lacked thermotolerance to the experimental conditions provided (25 days at 25 °C), with 100% or almost 100% colony mortality by the end of the experiment. Furthermore, we found no significant association between local average thermal regimes nor recent thermal history (i.e., local water temperatures in the 3 months prior to the experiment) and population thermotolerance. Overall, our results suggest that local adaptation and/or acclimation to warmer conditions have a limited role in the response of P. clavata to thermal stress. The study also confirms the sensitivity of this species to warm temperatures across its distributional range and questions its adaptive capacity under ocean warming conditions. However, important inter-individual variation in thermotolerance was found within populations, particularly those exposed to the most severe prior marine heatwaves. These observations suggest that P. clavata could harbor adaptive potential to future warming acting on standing genetic variation (i.e., divergent selection) and/or environmentally-induced phenotypic variation (i.e., intra- and/or intergenerational plasticity).

SynMADE: synthetic microbiota across diverse ecosystems

The past two decades have witnessed rapid advances in engineering individual microbial strains to produce biochemicals and biomaterials. However, engineering microbial consortia has been relatively slow. Using systems and synthetic biology approaches, researchers have been developing tools for engineering complex microbiota. In this opinion article, I discuss future directions and visions regarding developing microbiota as a biomanufacturing host. Specifically, I propose that we can develop the soil microbial community itself as a huge bioreactor. Ultimately, researchers will provide a generalizable system that enables us to understand a microbial consortium's interaction and metabolism on diverse temporal and spatial scales to address global problems, including the climate crisis, food inequality, the issue of waste, and sustainable bioproduction.

How do ectotherms perform in cold environments? Physiological and life-history traits in an Andean viviparous lizard

Both the mean and the variation in environmental temperature are increasing globally. Indeed, the predicted increases in temperature range from 2 to 4°C in the next 50 years. Ectotherms control body temperature by means of behavior selecting microsites with different temperatures, which makes them more susceptible to changes in climate. Nevertheless, lizards living in high mountain environments have developed several mechanisms to inhabit and colonize variable environments with extreme temperatures. These mechanisms include a high metabolism to be active at lower temperatures and viviparity to improve embryonic development. Despite behavioral thermoregulation acting as a buffer to changes in environmental temperature, other traits such as life-history traits may be less flexible. Consequently, in an attempt to understand how lizards cope with harsh habitats, we evaluated some physiological traits and responses of females of Liolaemus bellii from two contrasting slope sites with differences in environmental temperature and humidity, but at the same altitude in the southern Andes range. We collected pregnant females from opposite slopes and maintained them until parturition in a common-garden experiment. Females from the south-facing slope (S-slope) had higher preferred body temperature (Tpref) values before and after parturition and exhibited higher daily energy expenditure before parturition. Nevertheless, no difference in Tpref was shown by their offspring, suggesting a developmental plastic response or adaptation to lower environmental temperature. For instance, the higher metabolism during pregnancy could be associated with a shorter activity period on the snowy S-slope. Additionally, females from the S-slope had larger kidneys and gave birth later than N-slope females, likely due to developmental plasticity or genetic differentiation. How fixed these traits are, in individuals from the contrasting slopes, will determine the response capacity of the L. bellii population to climate change.

Quo Vadis, Orthotrichum pulchellum? A Journey of Epiphytic Moss across the European Continent

Orthotrichum pulchellum is a species of epiphytic moss in which a significant expansion from the oceanic part of Europe to the east of the continent has been observed in the recent two decades. The improvement in air quality in Central and Eastern Europe, but also climate change, probably plays a role in this. This study shows what direction of its spreading we can expect in the future. Ecological niche modeling (ENM) is a widespread method to find out species niches in environmental and geographical space, which allows us to highlight areas that have a higher probability of occurrences of the studied species, based on identifying similar environmental conditions to those already known. We also made predictions for different future scenarios (CMIP5 climatology datasets for the years 2041-2060). Because we were not able to distinguish between historical and newly settled areas, and so, had to use some of the traditional approaches when modeling invasive species, we proposed to use niche clusters based on environmental layers to split the data of all known occurrences and make models separately for each cluster. This approach seems reasonable from the ecological species point of view because using all the morphologically same samples could be misleading. Altogether, 2712 samples were used from three separate niche clusters. For building the models, the Maxent algorithm was used as a well-tested, well-accepted, and commonly used method.

Intra- and interannual dynamics of grassland community phylogenetic structure are influenced by meteorological conditions before the growing season

The impact of global climate change on ecosystem structure has attracted much attention from researchers. However, how climate change and meteorological conditions influence community phylogenetic structure remains poorly understood. In this research, we quantified the responses of grassland communities' phylogenetic structure to long- and short-term meteorological conditions in Inner Mongolia, China. The net relatedness index (NRI) was used to characterize phylogenetic structure, and the relationship between the NRI and climate data was analyzed to understand the dynamics of community phylogenetic structure and its relationship with extreme meteorological events. Furthermore, multiple linear regression and structural equation models (SEMs) were used to quantify the relative contributions of meteorological factors before and during the current growing season to short-term changes in community phylogenetic structure. In addition, we evaluated the effect of long-term meteorological factors on yearly NRI anomalies with classification and regression trees (CARTs). We found that 1) the degree of phylogenetic clustering of the community is relatively low in the peak growing season, when habitat filtering is relatively weak and competition is fiercer. 2) Extreme meteorological conditions (i.e., drought and cold) may change community phylogenetic structure and indirectly reduce the degree of phylogenetic clustering by reducing the proportion of dominant perennial grasses. 3) Meteorological conditions before the growing season rather than during the current growing season explain more variation in the NRI and interannual NRI anomalies. Our results may provide useful information for understanding grassland community species assembly and how climate change affects biodiversity.

Dispersal abilities favor commensalism in animal-plant interactions under climate change

Scientists still poorly understand how biotic interactions and dispersal limitation jointly interact and affect the ability of species to track suitable habitats under climate change. Here, we examine how animal-plant interactions and dispersal limitations might affect the responses of Brazil nut-dependent frogs facing projected climate change. Using ecological niche modelling and dispersal simulations, we forecast the future distributions of the Brazil nut tree and three commensalist frog species over time (2030, 2050, 2070, and 2090) in the regional rivalry (SSP370) scenario that includes great challenges to mitigation and adaptation. With the exception of one species, projections point to a decrease in suitable habitats of up to 40.6%. For frog species with potential reductions of co-occurrence areas, this is expected to reduce up to 23.8% of suitable areas for binomial animal-plant relationships. Even so, biotic interactions should not be lost over time. Species will depend on their own dispersal abilities to reach analogous climates in the future for maintaining ecological and evolutionary processes associated with commensal taxa. However, ecological and evolutionary processes associated with commensal taxa should be maintained in accordance with their own dispersal ability. When dispersal limitation is included in the models, the suitable range of all three frog species is reduced considerably by the end of the century. This highlights the importance of dispersal limitation inclusion for forecasting future distribution ranges when biotic interactions matter.

Multi-Stemmed Habit in Trees Contributes Climate Resilience in Tropical Dry Forest

Understanding how environmental adaptations mediate plant and ecosystem responses becomes increasingly important under accelerating global environmental change. Multi-stemmed trees, for example, differ in form and function from single-stemmed trees and may possess physiological advantages that allow for persistence during stressful climatic events such as extended drought. Following the worst drought in Hawaii in a century, we examined patterns of stem abundance and turnover in a Hawaiian lowland dry forest (LDF) and a montane wet forest (MWF) to investigate how multi-stemmed trees might influence site persistence, and how stem abundance and turnover relate to key functional traits. We found stem abundance and multi-stemmed trees to be an important component for climate resilience within the LDF. The LDF had higher relative abundance of multi-stemmed trees, stem abundance, and mean stem abundance compared to a reference MWF. Within the LDF, multi-stemmed trees had higher relative stem abundance (i.e., percent composition of stems to the total number of stems in the LDF) and higher estimated aboveground carbon than single-stemmed trees. Stem abundance varied among species and tree size classes. Stem turnover (i.e., change in stem abundance between five-year censuses) varied among species and tree size classes and species mean stem turnover was correlated with mean species stem abundance per tree. At the plot level, stem abundance per tree is also a predictor of survival, though mortality did not differ between multiple- and single-stemmed trees. Lastly, species with higher mean stem abundance per tree tended to have traits associated with a higher light-saturated photosynthetic rate, suggesting greater productivity in periods with higher water supply. Identifying the traits that allow species and forest communities to persist in dry environments or respond to disturbance is useful for forecasting ecological climate resilience or potential for restoration in tropical dry forests.

Climate warming can reduce biocontrol efficacy and promote plant invasion due to both genetic and transient metabolomic changes

Climate change may affect plant-herbivore interactions and their associated ecosystem functions. In an experimental evolution approach, we subjected replicated populations of the invasive Ambrosia artemisiifolia to a combination of simulated warming and herbivory by a potential biocontrol beetle. We tracked genomic and metabolomic changes across generations in field populations and assessed plant offspring phenotypes in a common environment. Using an integrated Bayesian model, we show that increased offspring biomass in response to warming arose through changes in the genetic composition of populations. In contrast, increased resistance to herbivory arose through a shift in plant metabolomic profiles without genetic changes, most likely by transgenerational induction of defences. Importantly, while increased resistance was costly at ambient temperatures, warming removed this constraint and favoured both vigorous and better defended plants under biocontrol. Climate warming may thus decrease biocontrol efficiency and promote Ambrosia invasion, with potentially serious economic and health consequences.

Contrasting patterns from two invasion fronts suggest a niche shift of an invasive predator of native bees

Background

The accuracy of predictions of invasive species ranges is dependent on niche similarity between invasive and native populations and on our ability to identify the niche characteristics. With this work we aimed to compare the niche dynamics of two genetically related invasive populations of Vespa velutina (an effective predator of honeybees and wild pollinators), in two distinct climatic regions, one in central Europe and another one in the north-western Iberian Peninsula, and hence to identify uninvaded regions susceptible to invasion.

Methods

Niche dynamics and shifts of V. velutina were assessed by comparing the environmental niches of the native and of the two invasive populations, using climatic, topographic and land use variables. We also ran reciprocal distribution models using different algorithms and records from both native and invasive ranges to compare model predictions and estimate which regions are at a greater risk of being invaded.

Results

An apparent niche shift was detected in the population of the NW of Iberian Peninsula, where the species is living under environmental conditions different from the native niche. In central Europe, large suitable areas remain unoccupied. The fact that both invasive populations are well established, despite occupying environmentally distinct regions indicates that V. velutina has a high ability to successfully invade different environmental envelopes from those existing in its native range. For example, in north-western Iberian Peninsula the species is now thriving out of its native niche limits. Moreover, the large extent of still unoccupied environmental space with similar conditions to those used by the species in its native range suggests that there is still a large area of central and eastern Europe that can be potentially invaded by the species.

A spatially-modelled snapshot of future marine macroalgal assemblages in southern Europe: Towards a broader Mediterranean region?

The effect of climate change on species distribution has been the focus of much recent research, but the community-level approach remains poorly studied. Our investigation applies a present assemblage-environment relationship model for the first time to the predict changes in subtidal macroalgal assemblages in the northern Iberian Peninsula under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate scenarios by 2100. Water temperature is the most relevant factor in shaping assemblage distribution, whilst nutrient availability plays a secondary role. The results partially support our hypothesis that there may well be a potential meridionalisation of northern Iberian assemblages in the future. Under the most pessimistic scenario, the model projects that the north-western assemblages will remain distinct from the rest, whereas the central and eastern assemblages of the north coast of the Iberian Peninsula will come to resemble those of the Mediterranean region more closely than those of the northwest coast. This research may help predict how the biodiversity of the coastal ecosystem will respond to new environmental conditions. This is essential information for developing proper management and conservation policies.

The diversity of biotic interactions complements functional and phylogenetic facets of biodiversity

Taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic diversities are important facets of biodiversity. Studying them together has improved our understanding of community dynamics, ecosystem functioning, and conservation values.^1-3 In contrast to species, traits, and phylogenies, the diversity of biotic interactions has so far been largely ignored as a biodiversity facet in large-scale studies. This neglect represents a crucial shortfall because biotic interactions shape community dynamics, drive important aspects of ecosystem functioning,^4-7 provide services to humans, and have intrinsic conservation value.^8,9 Hence, the diversity of interactions can provide crucial and unique information with respect to other diversity facets. Here, we leveraged large datasets of trophic interactions, functional traits, phylogenies, and spatial distributions of >1,000 terrestrial vertebrate species across Europe at a 10-km resolution. We computed the diversity of interactions (interaction diversity [ID]) in addition to functional diversity (FD) and phylogenetic diversity (PD). After controlling for species richness, surplus and deficits of ID were neither correlated with FD nor with PD, thus representing unique and complementary information to the commonly studied facets of diversity. A three-dimensional mapping allowed for visualizing different combinations of ID-FD-PD simultaneously. Interestingly, the spatial distribution of these diversity combinations closely matched the boundaries between 10 European biogeographic regions and revealed new interaction-rich areas in the European Boreal region and interaction-poor areas in Central Europe. Our study demonstrates that the diversity of interactions adds new and ecologically relevant information to multifacetted, large-scale diversity studies with implications for understanding eco-evolutionary processes and informing conservation planning.

Patterns of thermal adaptation in a globally distributed plant pathogen: Local diversity and plasticity reveal two-tier dynamics

Plant pathogen populations inhabit patchy environments with contrasting, variable thermal conditions. We investigated the diversity of thermal responses in populations sampled over contrasting spatiotemporal scales, to improve our understanding of their dynamics of adaptation to local conditions. Samples of natural populations of the wheat pathogen Zymoseptoria tritici were collected from sites within the Euro-Mediterranean region subject to a broad range of climatic conditions. We tested for local adaptation, by accounting for the diversity of responses at the individual and population levels on the basis of key thermal performance curve parameters and "thermotype" (groups of individuals with similar thermal responses) composition. The characterization of phenotypic responses and genotypic structure revealed the following: (i) a high degree of individual plasticity and variation in sensitivity to temperature conditions across spatiotemporal scales and populations; and (ii) geographic variation in thermal response among populations, with major alterations due to seasonal patterns over the wheat-growing season. The seasonal shifts in functional composition suggest that populations are locally structured by selection, contributing to adaptation patterns. Further studies combining selection experiments and modeling are required to determine how functional group selection drives population dynamics and adaptive potential in response to thermal heterogeneity.

Evolutionary rescue can prevent rate-induced tipping

The transformation of ecosystems proceeds at unprecedented rates. Recent studies suggest that high rates of environmental change can cause rate-induced tipping. In ecological models, the associated rate-induced critical transition manifests during transient dynamics in which populations drop to dangerously low densities. In this work, we study how indirect evolutionary rescue—due to the rapid evolution of a predator’s trait—can save a prey population from the rate-induced collapse. Therefore, we explicitly include the time-dependent dynamics of environmental change and evolutionary adaptation in an eco-evolutionary system. We then examine how fast the evolutionary adaptation needs to be to counteract the response to environmental degradation and express this relationship by means of a critical rate. Based on this critical rate, we conclude that indirect evolutionary rescue is more probable if the predator population possesses a high genetic variation and, simultaneously, the environmental change is slow. Hence, our results strongly emphasize that the maintenance of biodiversity requires a deceleration of the anthropogenic degradation of natural habitats.

Uncertainty, Complexity and Constraints: How Do We Robustly Assess Biological Responses under a Rapidly Changing Climate?

How robust is our assessment of impacts to ecosystems and species from a rapidly changing climate during the 21st century? We examine the challenges of uncertainty, complexity and constraints associated with applying climate projections to understanding future biological responses. This includes an evaluation of how to incorporate the uncertainty associated with different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and climate models, and constraints of spatiotemporal scales and resolution of climate data into impact assessments. We describe the challenges of identifying relevant climate metrics for biological impact assessments and evaluate the usefulness and limitations of different methodologies of applying climate change to both quantitative and qualitative assessments. We discuss the importance of incorporating extreme climate events and their stochastic tendencies in assessing ecological impacts and transformation, and provide recommendations for better integration of complex climate–ecological interactions at relevant spatiotemporal scales. We further recognize the compounding nature of uncertainty when accounting for our limited understanding of the interactions between climate and biological processes. Given the inherent complexity in ecological processes and their interactions with climate, we recommend integrating quantitative modeling with expert elicitation from diverse disciplines and experiential understanding of recent climate-driven ecological processes to develop a more robust understanding of ecological responses under different scenarios of future climate change. Inherently complex interactions between climate and biological systems also provide an opportunity to develop wide-ranging strategies that resource managers can employ to prepare for the future.

Use of environmental DNA in assessment of fish functional and phylogenetic diversity

Assessing the impact of global changes and protection effectiveness is a key step in monitoring marine fishes. Most traditional census methods are demanding or destructive. Nondisturbing and nonlethal approaches based on video and environmental DNA are alternatives to underwater visual census or fishing. However, their ability to detect multiple biodiversity factors beyond traditional taxonomic diversity is still unknown. For bony fishes and elasmobranchs, we compared the performance of eDNA metabarcoding and long-term remote video to assess species' phylogenetic and functional diversity. We used 10 eDNA samples from 30 L of water each and 25 hr of underwater videos over 4 days on Malpelo Island (pacific coast of Colombia), a remote marine protected area. Metabarcoding of eDNA detected 66% more molecular operational taxonomic units (MOTUs) than species on video. We found 66 and 43 functional entities with a single eDNA marker and videos, respectively, and higher functional richness for eDNA than videos. Despite gaps in genetic reference databases, eDNA also detected a higher fish phylogenetic diversity than videos; accumulation curves showed how 1 eDNA transect detected as much phylogenetic diversity as 25 hr of video. Environmental DNA metabarcoding can be used to affordably, efficiently, and accurately census biodiversity factors in marine systems. Although taxonomic assignments are still limited by species coverage in genetic reference databases, use of MOTUs highlights the potential of eDNA metabarcoding once reference databases have expanded.

Return of the Lemnaceae: duckweed as a model plant system in the genomics and postgenomics era

The aquatic Lemnaceae family, commonly called duckweed, comprises some of the smallest and fastest growing angiosperms known on Earth. Their tiny size, rapid growth by clonal propagation, and facile uptake of labeled compounds from the media were attractive features that made them a well-known model for plant biology from 1950 to 1990. Interest in duckweed has steadily regained momentum over the past decade, driven in part by the growing need to identify alternative plants from traditional agricultural crops that can help tackle urgent societal challenges, such as climate change and rapid population expansion. Propelled by rapid advances in genomic technologies, recent studies with duckweed again highlight the potential of these small plants to enable discoveries in diverse fields from ecology to chronobiology. Building on established community resources, duckweed is reemerging as a platform to study plant processes at the systems level and to translate knowledge gained for field deployment to address some of society's pressing needs. This review details the anatomy, development, physiology, and molecular characteristics of the Lemnaceae to introduce them to the broader plant research community. We highlight recent research enabled by Lemnaceae to demonstrate how these plants can be used for quantitative studies of complex processes and for revealing potentially novel strategies in plant defense and genome maintenance.

The importance of pre- and postcopulatory sexual selection promoting adaptation to increasing temperatures

Global temperatures are increasing rapidly affecting species globally. Understanding if and how different species can adapt fast enough to keep up with increasing temperatures is of vital importance. One mechanism that can accelerate adaptation and promote evolutionary rescue is sexual selection. Two different mechanisms by which sexual selection can facilitate adaptation are pre- and postcopulatory sexual selection. However, the relative effects of these different forms of sexual selection in promoting adaptation are unknown. Here, we present the results from an experimental study in which we exposed fruit flies Drosophila melanogaster to either no mate choice or 1 of 2 different sexual selection regimes (pre- and postcopulatory sexual selection) for 6 generations, under different thermal regimes. Populations showed evidence of thermal adaptation under precopulatory sexual selection, but this effect was not detected in the postcopulatory sexual selection and the no choice mating regime. We further demonstrate that sexual dimorphism decreased when flies evolved under increasing temperatures, consistent with recent theory predicting more sexually concordant selection under environmental stress. Our results suggest an important role for precopulatory sexual selection in promoting thermal adaptation and evolutionary rescue.

Climate change effects on animal ecology: butterflies and moths as a case study

Butterflies and moths (Lepidoptera) are one of the most studied, diverse, and widespread animal groups, making them an ideal model for climate change research. They are a particularly informative model for studying the effects of climate change on species ecology because they are ectotherms that thermoregulate with a suite of physiological, behavioural, and phenotypic traits. While some species have been negatively impacted by climatic disturbances, others have prospered, largely in accordance with their diversity in life-history traits. Here we take advantage of a large repertoire of studies on butterflies and moths to provide a review of the many ways in which climate change is impacting insects, animals, and ecosystems. By studying these climate-based impacts on ecological processes of Lepidoptera, we propose appropriate strategies for species conservation and habitat management broadly across animals.

Addressing risks to biodiversity arising from a changing climate: The need for ecosystem restoration in the Tana River Basin, Kenya

Climate change is projected to have significant effects on the distribution of species globally, but research into the implications in parts of Africa has been limited. Using species distribution modelling, this study models climate change-related risks to the terrestrial biodiversity (birds, mammals, reptiles, amphibians and plants) of Kenya’s economically-important and ecologically diverse Tana River Basin. Large reductions in species richness are projected with just 2°C warming (relative to preindustrial levels) with birds and plants seeing the greatest impact. Potential climate refugia for biodiversity are identified within the basin, but often overlap with areas already converted to agriculture or set aside for agricultural expansion, and the majority are outside protected areas. Similarly, some protected areas contain no projected refugia at higher levels of global warming, showing they may be insufficient to protect the basin’s biodiversity as climate changes. However, risks to biodiversity are much smaller if the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to ‘well below 2°C’ warming, rather than 2°C only, is met. The potential for refugia for plants and animals decreases strongly with warming. For example, 82% of the basin remaining climatically suitable for at least 75% of the plants currently present at 1.5°C warming, as compared with 23% at 2°C and 3% at 4.5°C. This research provides the first assessment of the combined effects of development plans and climate change on biodiversity of the Tana River Basin, including identifying potential areas for restoration, and contributes to a greater understanding of biodiversity protection and adaptation options in Kenya.

Extensive standing genetic variation from a small number of founders enables rapid adaptation in Daphnia

We lack a thorough understanding of the origin and maintenance of standing genetic variation that enables rapid evolutionary responses of natural populations. Whole genome sequencing of a resurrected Daphnia population shows that standing genetic variation in over 500 genes follows an evolutionary trajectory that parallels the pronounced and rapid adaptive evolution of multiple traits in response to predator-driven natural selection and its subsequent relaxation. Genetic variation carried by only five founding individuals from the regional genotype pool is shown to suffice at enabling the observed evolution. Our results provide insight on how natural populations can acquire the genomic variation, through colonization by a few regional genotypes, that fuels rapid evolution in response to strong selection pressures. While these evolutionary responses in our study population involved hundreds of genes, we observed no evidence of genetic erosion.

Phenotypic plasticity can reverse the relative extent of intra- and interspecific variability across a thermal gradient

Intra- and interspecific variability can both ensure ecosystem functions. Generalizing the effects of individual and species assemblages requires understanding how much within and between species trait variation is genetically based or results from phenotypic plasticity. Phenotypic plasticity can indeed lead to rapid and important changes of trait distributions, and in turn community functionality, depending on environmental conditions, which raises a crucial question: could phenotypic plasticity modify the relative importance of intra- and interspecific variability along environmental gradients? We quantified the fundamental niche of five genotypes in monocultures for each of five ciliate species along a wide thermal gradient in standardized conditions to assess the importance of phenotypic plasticity for the level of intraspecific variability compared to differences between species. We showed that phenotypic plasticity strongly influences trait variability and reverses the relative extent of intra- and interspecific variability along the thermal gradient. Our results show that phenotypic plasticity may lead to either increase or decrease of functional trait variability along environmental gradients, making intra- and interspecific variability highly dynamic components of ecological systems.

Water Deficiency and Induced Defense Against a Generalist Insect Herbivore in Desert and Mediterranean Populations of Eruca sativa

In natural and agricultural ecosystems, plants are often simultaneously or sequentially exposed to combinations of stressors. Here we tested whether limited water availability (LWA) affects plant response to insect herbivory using two populations of Eruca sativa from desert and Mediterranean habitats that differ in their induced defenses. Considering that such differences evolved as responses to biotic and possibly abiotic stress factors, the two populations offered an opportunity to study ecological aspects in plant response to combined stresses. Analysis of chemical defense mechanisms showed that LWA significantly induced total glucosinolate concentrations in the Mediterranean plants, but their concentrations were reduced in the desert plants. However, LWA, with and without subsequent jasmonate elicitation, significantly induced the expression of proteinase inhibitor in the desert plants. Results of a no-choice feeding experiment showed that LWA significantly increased desert plant resistance to Spodoptera littoralis larvae, whereas it did not affect the relatively strong basal resistance of the Mediterranean plants. LWA and subsequent jasmonate elicitation increased resistance against the generalist insect in Mediterranean plants, possibly due to both increased proteinase inhibitor expression and glucosinolate accumulation. The effect of LWA on the expression of genes involved in phytohormone signaling, abscisic acid (ABA-1) and jasmonic acid (AOC1), and the jasmonate responsive PDF1.2, suggested the involvement of abscisic acid in the regulation of defense mechanisms in the two populations. Our results indicate that specific genotypic responses should be considered when estimating general patterns in plant response to herbivory under water deficiency conditions.