Coronary Disease Risk Prediction, Risk Reduction, and Postoperative Myocardial Injury

For patients considering surgery, the preoperative evaluation allows physicians to identify and treat acute cardiac conditions before less-urgent surgery, predict the benefits and harms of a proposed surgery, and make temporary management changes to reduce operative risk. Multiple risk prediction tools are reasonable for use in estimating perioperative cardiac risk, but management changes to reduce risk have proven elusive. For all but the most urgent surgical procedures, patients with active coronary syndromes or decompensated heart failure should have surgery postponed.

Diagnostic and prognostic value of cardiac stress testing before major noncardiac surgery-A cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To assess the incremental contribution of preoperative stress test results toward a diagnosis of obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD), prediction of mortality, or prediction of perioperative myocardial infarction in patients considering noncardiac, nonophthalmologic surgery.

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS

A retrospective cohort study of visits to a preoperative risk assessment and optimization clinic in a large health system between 2008 and 2018.

MEASUREMENTS

To assess diagnostic information of preoperative stress testing, we used the Begg and Greenes method to calculate test characteristics adjusted for referral bias, with a gold standard of angiography. To assess prognostic information, we first created multiply-imputed logistic regression models to predict 90-day mortality and perioperative myocardial infarction (MI), starting with two tools commonly used to assess perioperative cardiac risk, Revised Cardiac Risk Index (RCRI) and Myocardial Infarction or Cardiac Arrest (MICA). We then added stress test results and compared the discrimination for models with and without stress test results.

MAIN RESULTS

Among 136,935 visits by patients without an existing diagnosis of CAD, the decision to obtain preoperative stress testing identified around 4.0% of likely new diagnoses. Stress testing increased the likelihood of CAD (likelihood ratio: 1.31), but for over 99% of patients, stress testing should not change a decision on whether to proceed to angiography. In 117,445 visits with subsequent noncardiac surgery, stress test results failed to improve predictions of either perioperative MI or 90-day mortality. Reweighting the models and adding hemoglobin improved the prediction of both outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Cardiac stress testing before noncardiac, nonophthalmologic surgery does not improve predictions of either perioperative mortality or myocardial infarction. Very few patients considering noncardiac, nonophthalmologic surgery have a pretest probability of CAD in a range where stress testing could usefully select patients for angiography. Better use of existing patient data could improve predictions of perioperative adverse events without additional patient testing.

Non-invasive imaging software to assess the functional significance of coronary stenoses: a systematic review and economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

QAngio^® XA 3D/QFR^® (three-dimensional/quantitative flow ratio) imaging software (Medis Medical Imaging Systems BV, Leiden, the Netherlands) and CAAS^® vFFR^® (vessel fractional flow reserve) imaging software (Pie Medical Imaging BV, Maastricht, the Netherlands) are non-invasive technologies to assess the functional significance of coronary stenoses, which can be alternatives to invasive fractional flow reserve assessment.

OBJECTIVES

The objectives were to determine the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of QAngio XA 3D/QFR and CAAS vFFR.

METHODS

We performed a systematic review of all evidence on QAngio XA 3D/QFR and CAAS vFFR, including diagnostic accuracy, clinical effectiveness, implementation and economic analyses. We searched MEDLINE and other databases to January 2020 for studies where either technology was used and compared with fractional flow reserve in patients with intermediate stenosis. The risk of bias was assessed with quality assessment of diagnostic accuracy studies. Meta-analyses of diagnostic accuracy were performed. Clinical and implementation outcomes were synthesised narratively. A simulation study investigated the clinical impact of using QAngio XA 3D/QFR. We developed a de novo decision-analytic model to estimate the cost-effectiveness of QAngio XA 3D/QFR and CAAS vFFR relative to invasive fractional flow reserve or invasive coronary angiography alone. Scenario analyses were undertaken to explore the robustness of the results to variation in the sources of data used to populate the model and alternative assumptions.

RESULTS

Thirty-nine studies (5440 patients) of QAngio XA 3D/QFR and three studies (500 patients) of CAAS vFFR were included. QAngio XA 3D/QFR had good diagnostic accuracy to predict functionally significant fractional flow reserve (≤ 0.80 cut-off point); contrast-flow quantitative flow ratio had a sensitivity of 85% (95% confidence interval 78% to 90%) and a specificity of 91% (95% confidence interval 85% to 95%). A total of 95% of quantitative flow ratio measurements were within 0.14 of the fractional flow reserve. Data on the diagnostic accuracy of CAAS vFFR were limited and a full meta-analysis was not feasible. There were very few data on clinical and implementation outcomes. The simulation found that quantitative flow ratio slightly increased the revascularisation rate when compared with fractional flow reserve, from 40.2% to 42.0%. Quantitative flow ratio and fractional flow reserve resulted in similar numbers of subsequent coronary events. The base-case cost-effectiveness results showed that the test strategy with the highest net benefit was invasive coronary angiography with confirmatory fractional flow reserve. The next best strategies were QAngio XA 3D/QFR and CAAS vFFR (without fractional flow reserve). However, the difference in net benefit between this best strategy and the next best was small, ranging from 0.007 to 0.012 quality-adjusted life-years (or equivalently £140-240) per patient diagnosed at a cost-effectiveness threshold of £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year.

LIMITATIONS

Diagnostic accuracy evidence on CAAS vFFR, and evidence on the clinical impact of QAngio XA 3D/QFR, were limited.

CONCLUSIONS

Quantitative flow ratio as measured by QAngio XA 3D/QFR has good agreement and diagnostic accuracy compared with fractional flow reserve and is preferable to standard invasive coronary angiography alone. It appears to have very similar cost-effectiveness to fractional flow reserve and, therefore, pending further evidence on general clinical benefits and specific subgroups, could be a reasonable alternative. The clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of CAAS vFFR are uncertain. Randomised controlled trial evidence evaluating the effect of quantitative flow ratio on clinical and patient-centred outcomes is needed.

FUTURE WORK

Studies are required to assess the diagnostic accuracy and clinical feasibility of CAAS vFFR. Large ongoing randomised trials will hopefully inform the clinical value of QAngio XA 3D/QFR.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42019154575.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Evidence Synthesis programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 56. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Coronary Computed Tomography Angiography for Assesment of Stable Coronary Artery Disease – a Cost-effectiveness Perspective

Patients with chest pain presenting to the emergency room are currently investigated using either invasive coronary angiography (ICA) or noninvasive coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA). ICA remains an expensive diagnostic tool and exposes patients to a high risk of periprocedural complication. Besides the currently available expansive economic evidence, there is still an important lingering issue: to establish, from the healthcare provider’s point of view, which is the most cost-effective investigation tool for the detection of significant coronary artery disease. The aim of this article is to present the latest developments in the field of imaging tools for the detection of coronary atherosclerosis in patients with chest pain, from the perspective of a cost-effectiveness analysis.

Probabilistic Graphical Modeling for Estimating Risk of Coronary Artery Disease: Applications of a Flexible Machine-Learning Method

Objectives. Coronary artery disease (CAD) is the leading cause of death and disease burden worldwide, causing 1 in 7 deaths in the United States alone. Risk prediction models that can learn the complex causal relationships that give rise to CAD from data, instead of merely predicting the risk of disease, have the potential to improve transparency and efficacy of personalized CAD diagnosis and therapy selection for physicians, patients, and other decision makers. Methods. We use Bayesian networks (BNs) to model the risk of CAD using the Z-Alizadehsani data set-a published real-world observational data set of 303 Iranian patients at risk for CAD. We also describe how BNs can be used for incorporation of background knowledge, individual risk prediction, handling missing observations, and adaptive decision making under uncertainty. Results. BNs performed on par with machine-learning classifiers at predicting CAD and showed better probability calibration. They achieved a mean 10-fold area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.93 ± 0.04, which was comparable with the performance of logistic regression with L1 or L2 regularization (AUC: 0.92 ± 0.06), support vector machine (AUC: 0.92 ± 0.06), and artificial neural network (AUC: 0.91 ± 0.05). We describe the use of BNs to predict with missing data and to adaptively calculate prognostic values of individual variables under uncertainty. Conclusion. BNs are powerful and versatile tools for risk prediction and health outcomes research that can complement traditional statistical techniques and are particularly useful in domains in which information is uncertain or incomplete and in which interpretability is important, such as medicine.

Targeted hepatitis E vaccination for women of childbearing age is cost-effective in China

BACKGROUND

Hepatitis E virus (HEV) infection is hyper-endemic in China, it is characterized with a high morbidity of fulminant hepatitis and mortality in pregnant women. The first hepatitis E vaccine, HEV 239, was licensed in China in 2011 which provides an effective preventive measure.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of vaccination with HEV 239 in women of childbearing age in China and whether HEV antibody screening should be considered before vaccination.

METHODS

A decision tree-Markov model was constructed to simulate HEV infection in a closed female cohort with an average first-marriage age of 25 years and evaluate health and economic outcomes of two potential vaccination strategies, direct vaccination and combined screening and vaccination, from a societal perspective. An incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER, additional costs per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted) was calculated for each vaccination strategy versus no vaccination and between two vaccination strategies. Univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the robustness of the model findings.

RESULTS

ICERs of direct vaccination and combined screening and vaccination versus no vaccination were $4040 and $3114 per DALY averted, respectively, much lower than 1-time Chinese per-capita GDP ($8127). Direct vaccination would need additional $45,455 for each DALY averted compared with combined screening and vaccination, far more than the 3-time per-capita GDP. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses confirmed our findings that two vaccination strategies would be cost-effective if the willingness-to-pay reached the 1-time per-capita GDP, and that combined screening and vaccination would be more cost-effective than direct vaccination strategy.

CONCLUSION

Vaccinating women of childbearing age with HEV 239 would cost less than the 1-time per-capita GDP for each DALY averted in China, and the vaccination with a prior screening would be the optimal option.

Accuracy and clinical outcomes of coronary CT angiography for patients with suspected coronary artery disease: a single-centre study in Singapore

INTRODUCTION

This study aimed to assess the accuracy and outcomes of coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) performed in a regional hospital in Singapore.

METHODS

The Changi General Hospital CCTA database was retrospectively analysed over a 24-month period. Electronic hospital records, catheter coronary angiography (CCA) and CCTA electronic databases were used to gather data on major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and CCA results. CCTA findings were deemed positive if coronary artery stenosis ≥ 50% was reported or if the stenosis was classified as moderate or severe. CCA findings were considered positive if coronary artery stenosis ≥ 50% was reported.

RESULTS

The database query returned 679 patients who had undergone CCTA for the evaluation of suspected coronary artery disease. Of the 101 patients in the per-patient accuracy analysis group, there were six true negatives, one false negative, 81 true positives and 13 false positives, resulting in a negative predictive value of 85.7% and positive predictive value of 86.2%. The mean age of the study sample was 53 ± 13 years and 255 (37.6%) patients were female. Mean duration of patient follow-up was 360 days. Of the 513 negative CCTA patients, none developed MACE during the follow-up period, and of the 164 positive CCTA patients, 19 (11.6%) developed MACE (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Analysis of CCTA studies suggested accuracy and outcomes that were consistent with published clinical data. There was a one-year MACE-free warranty period following negative CCTA findings.

Coronary calcium score improves the estimation for pretest probability of obstructive coronary artery disease and avoids unnecessary testing in individuals at low extreme of traditional risk factor burden: validation and comparison of CONFIRM score and genders extended model

BACKGROUND

Reliability of models for estimating pretest probability (PTP) of obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) has not been investigated in individuals at low extreme of traditional risk factor (RF) burden. Thus, we sought to validate and compare CONFIRM score and Genders extended model (GEM) among these individuals.

METHODS

We identified symptomatic individuals with 0 or 1 RF who underwent coronary calcium scan and coronary computed tomographic angiography (CCTA). Follow-up clinical data were also recorded. PTP of obstructive CAD for every individual was estimated according to CONFIRM score and GEM, respectively. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), net reclassification improvement (NRI) and Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) test were used to assess the performance of models.

RESULTS

There were 1201 individuals with 0 RF and 2415 with 1 RF. The AUC for GEM was significantly larger than that for CONFIRM score, no matter in individuals with 0 (0.843 v.s. 0.762, p < 0.0001) or 1 (0.823 v.s. 0.752, p < 0.0001) RF. Compared to CONFIRM score, GEM demonstrated positive IDI (5% in individuals with 0 RF and 8% in individuals with 1 RF), positive NRI (41.50% in individuals with 0 RF and 40.19% in individuals with 1 RF), better prediction of clinical events and less discrepancy between observed and predicted probabilities, resulting in a significant decrease of unnecessary testing, especially in negative individuals.

CONCLUSION

In individuals at low extreme of traditional RF burden of CAD, the addition of coronary calcium score provided a more accurate estimation for PTP and application of GEM instead of CONFIRM score could avoid unnecessary testing.

The Cost-Effectiveness of Syphilis Screening Among Men Who Have Sex With Men: An Exploratory Modeling Analysis

We adapted a published model to estimate the costs and benefits of screening men who have sex with men for syphilis, including the benefits of preventing syphilis-attributable human immunodeficiency virus. The cost per quality-adjusted life year gained by screening was <US $0 (cost-saving) and US $16,100 in the dynamic and static versions of the model, respectively.

Methods for Handling Unobserved Covariates in a Bayesian Update of a Cost-effectiveness Model

Health economic decision models often involve a wide-ranging and complicated synthesis of evidence from a number of sources, making design and implementation of such models resource-heavy. When new data become available and reassessment of treatment recommendations is warranted, it may be more efficient to perform a Bayesian update of an existing model than to construct a new model. If the existing model depends on many, possibly correlated, covariates, then an update may produce biased estimates of model parameters if some of these covariates are completely absent from the new data. Motivated by the need to update a cost-effectiveness analysis comparing diagnostic strategies for coronary heart disease, this study develops methods to overcome this obstacle by either introducing additional data or using results from previous studies. We outline a framework to handle unobserved covariates, and use our motivating example to illustrate both the flexibility of the proposed methods and some potential difficulties in applying them.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of new generation coronary CT scanners for difficult-to-image patients

AIMS

New generation dual-source coronary CT (NGCCT) scanners with more than 64 slices were evaluated for patients with (known) or suspected of coronary artery disease (CAD) who are difficult to image: obese, coronary calcium score > 400, arrhythmias, previous revascularization, heart rate > 65 beats per minute, and intolerance of betablocker. A cost-effectiveness analysis of NGCCT compared with invasive coronary angiography (ICA) was performed for these difficult-to-image patients for England and Wales.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Five models (diagnostic decision model, four Markov models for CAD progression, stroke, radiation and general population) were integrated to estimate the cost-effectiveness of NGCCT for both suspected and known CAD populations. The lifetime costs and effects from the National Health Service perspective were estimated for three strategies: (1) patients diagnosed using ICA, (2) using NGCCT, and (3) patients diagnosed using a combination of NGCCT and, if positive, followed by ICA. In the suspected population, the strategy where patients only undergo a NGCCT is a cost-effective option at accepted cost-effectiveness thresholds. The strategy of using NGCCT in combination with ICA is the most favourable strategy for patients with known CAD. The most influential factors behind these results are the percentage of patients being misclassified (a function of both diagnostic accuracy and the prior likelihood), the complication rates of the procedures, and the cost price of a NGCCT scan.

CONCLUSION

The use of NGCCT might be considered cost-effective in both populations since it is cost-saving compared to ICA and generates similar effects.

Impact of Clinical Guideline Recommendations on the Application of Coronary Computed Tomographic Angiography in Patients with Suspected Stable Coronary Artery Disease

Background:

Coronary computed tomographic angiography (CCTA) has been widely used in patients who are at intermediate risk for having stable coronary artery disease (SCAD), and 2013 European Society of Cardiology Guidelines on the Management of SCAD (2013G) recommended the appropriate application of CCTA. However, 2013G has not been subjected to systematic analyses for subsequent impact on clinical practice.

Methods:

A total of 5320 patients suspected with SCAD were enrolled and scheduled for CCTA from March 2013 to September 2014. For each patient, pretest probability of SCAD was calculated according to updated Diamond-Forrester model (UDFM). Appropriate CCTA or appropriate stress test was determined as described in the 2013G. A generalized estimating equation model was used to determine the trends in the half-monthly rate of appropriate CCTA.

Results:

Overall, only 61.37% of patients received appropriate CCTA, and there was insignificant change over time (P = 0.8701). The application of CCTA in patients who should have had a stress test accounted for most of the inappropriate CCTA before (22.29%) or after (19.98%) the publication of the 2013G. In all patients or any subgroup, no significant change in the adjusted half-monthly rate of appropriate CCTA was found after the publication of the 2013G (odds ratio, 1.002; 95% confidence interval, 0.982–1.021; P = 0.8678).

Conclusions:

These findings suggest that the 2013G have not, to date, been fully incorporated into clinical practice, and the clinical utilization of CCTA remains unreasonable to some extent.

Evaluation of computed tomography in patients with atypical angina or chest pain clinically referred for invasive coronary angiography: randomised controlled trial

OBJECTIVE

 To evaluate whether invasive coronary angiography or computed tomography (CT) should be performed in patients clinically referred for coronary angiography with an intermediate probability of coronary artery disease.

DESIGN

 Prospective randomised single centre trial.

SETTING

 University hospital in Germany.

PARTICIPANTS

 340 patients with suspected coronary artery disease and a clinical indication for coronary angiography on the basis of atypical angina or chest pain.

INTERVENTIONS

 168 patients were randomised to CT and 172 to coronary angiography. After randomisation one patient declined CT and 10 patients declined coronary angiography, leaving 167 patients (88 women) and 162 patients (78 women) for analysis. Allocation could not be blinded, but blinded independent investigators assessed outcomes.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

 The primary outcome measure was major procedural complications within 48 hours of the last procedure related to CT or angiography.

RESULTS

 Cardiac CT reduced the need for coronary angiography from 100% to 14% (95% confidence interval 9% to 20%, P<0.001) and was associated with a significantly greater diagnostic yield from coronary angiography: 75% (53% to 90%) v 15% (10% to 22%), P<0.001. Major procedural complications were uncommon (0.3%) and similar across groups. Minor procedural complications were less common in the CT group than in the coronary angiography group: 3.6% (1% to 8%) v 10.5% (6% to 16%), P=0.014. CT shortened the median length of stay in the angiography group from 52.9 hours (interquartile range 49.5-76.4 hours) to 30.0 hours (3.5-77.3 hours, P<0.001). Overall median exposure to radiation was similar between the CT and angiography groups: 5.0 mSv (interquartile range 4.2-8.7 mSv) v 6.4 mSv (3.4-10.7 mSv), P=0.45. After a median follow-up of 3.3 years, major adverse cardiovascular events had occurred in seven of 167 patients in the CT group (4.2%) and six of 162 (3.7%) in the coronary angiography group (adjusted hazard ratio 0.90, 95% confidence interval 0.30 to 2.69, P=0.86). 79% of patients stated that they would prefer CT for subsequent testing. The study was conducted at a University hospital in Germany and thus the performance of CT may be different in routine clinical practice. The prevalence was lower than expected, resulting in an underpowered study for the predefined primary outcome.

CONCLUSIONS

 CT increased the diagnostic yield and was a safe gatekeeper for coronary angiography with no increase in long term events. The length of stay was shortened by 22.9 hours with CT, and patients preferred non-invasive testing.Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00844220.

Clinical and Cost Impact Analysis of a Novel Prognostic Test for Early Detection of Preterm Birth

Objective The objective of this study was to evaluate the potential impact to the U.S. health care system by adopting a novel test that identifies women at risk for spontaneous preterm birth. Methods A decision-analytic model was developed to assess clinical and cost outcomes over a 1-year period. The use of a prognostic test to predict spontaneous preterm birth in a hypothetical population of women reflective of the U.S. population (predictive arm) was compared with the current baseline rate of spontaneous preterm birth and associated infant morbidity and mortality (baseline care arm). Results In a population of 3,528,593 births, our model predicts a 23.5% reduction in infant mortality (8,300 vs. 6,343 deaths) with use of the novel test. The rate of acute conditions at birth decreased from 11.2 to 8.1%; similarly, the rate of developmental disabilities decreased from 13.2 to 11.5%. The rate of spontaneous preterm birth decreased from 9.8 to 9.1%, a reduction of 23,430 preterm births. Direct medical costs savings was $511.7M (- 2.1%) in the first year of life. Discussion The use of a prognostic test for reducing spontaneous preterm birth is a dominant strategy that could reduce costs and improve outcomes. More research is needed once such a test is available to determine if these results are borne out upon real-world use.

Designing Radiology Outcomes Studies-Essential Principles

Health outcomes research is essential to align radiology with current standards of high-value patient care, through the assessment of end results of diagnostic tests, interventions, or policy on patient health. To bridge studies of diagnostic test accuracy and health outcomes research, key considerations include: (1) how to determine when a diagnostic test merits evaluation of impact on outcomes, (2) when study of intermediate/surrogate outcomes can be useful, (3) how to consider the possible harms as well as potential benefits of a test, and (4) how to integrate evidence of an imaging test's efficacy/effectiveness with clinical data to assess outcomes. Due to challenges in conducting studies of long-term outcomes consequent to imaging use, intermediate health outcomes may capture a test's impact on successful diagnosis and therapy, and can provide readily measurable, incremental insights into the role of imaging in health-care delivery and efficiency. In an era marked by recognition of quality and value of care, outcomes research will provide essential evidence to inform radiologists' guidance of imaging use toward improved patient care, creation of clinical guidelines, and policy decisions.

Cost-Effectiveness of High-Risk Human Papillomavirus Testing With Messenger RNA Versus DNA Under United States Guidelines for Cervical Cancer Screening

OBJECTIVES

To compare the cost-effectiveness of high-risk human papillomavirus (hrHPV) testing using a hrHPV DNA and a hrHPV messenger RNA (mRNA) assay under current US cervical cancer screening guidelines.

METHODS

We constructed a Markov model for stochastic cost-effectiveness analysis using published data. We compared screening efficiency using DNA and mRNA testing for the following: (1) cotesting with cytology in women 30 to 65 years, and (2) triage of women with mild cervical cytological abnormalities (atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance [ASC-US]) in the United States. Screening end point is histologically confirmed high-grade lesions (cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2, 3, or invasive cancer). Sensitivity and specificity estimates of DNA and mRNA testing to detect cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2, 3, or invasive cancer were obtained from 2 published trials: the US Clinical Evaluation of APTIMA mRNA (CLEAR) study for ASC-US triage and the French APTIMA Screening Evaluation (FASE) study for cotesting. Costs of DNA and mRNA testing were assumed identical. Costs of screening, diagnosis, and treatment of cervical neoplasia and cancer were from previously published estimates, adjusted to 2012 US dollars. Inputs were modeled as distributions for Monte Carlo probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Model outcomes were costs per life-year saved for each strategy, discounted at 3% annually.

RESULTS

For both cotesting and ASC-US triage, mRNA testing cost less than DNA testing, whereas life expectancies were widely overlapping. There was a 100% probability that DNA testing was not cost-effective at $100,000/life-year saved threshold for ASC-US triage and a 55% probability that DNA testing was not cost-effective at the same threshold for cotesting.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on the available evidence, mRNA testing for cotesting or ASC-US triage is likely to be more efficient than DNA testing under current US cervical cancer screening guidelines.

Cost-effectiveness of computed tomography coronary angiography versus conventional invasive coronary angiography

OBJECTIVES

To determine the costs and cost-effectiveness of a diagnostic strategy including computed tomography coronary angiography (CTCA) in comparison with invasive conventional coronary angiography (CA) for the detection of significant coronary artery disease from the point of view of the healthcare provider.

METHODS

The average cost per CTCA was determined via a micro-costing method in four French hospitals, and the cost of CA was taken from the 2011 French National Cost Study that collects data at the patient level from a sample of 51 public or not-for-profit hospitals.

RESULTS

The average cost of CTCA was estimated to be 180<euro> (95 % CI 162-206<euro>) based on the use of a 64-slice CT scanner active for 10 h per day. The average cost of CA was estimated to be 1,378<euro> (95 % CI 1,126-1,670<euro>). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of CA for all patients over a strategy including CTCA triage in the intermediate risk group, no imaging test in the low risk group, and CA in the high risk group, was estimated to be 6,380<euro> (95 % CI 4,714-8,965<euro>) for each additional correctly classified patient. This strategy correctly classifies 95.3 % (95 % CI 94.4-96.2) of all patients in the population studied.

CONCLUSIONS

A strategy of CTCA triage in the intermediate-risk group, no imaging test in the low-risk group, and CA in the high-risk group, has good diagnostic accuracy and could significantly cut costs. Medium-term and long-term outcomes need to be evaluated in patients with coronary stenosis potentially misclassified by CTCA due to false negative examinations.

Different Imaging Strategies in Patients With Possible Basilar Artery Occlusion: Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of different noninvasive imaging strategies in patients with possible basilar artery occlusion.

METHODS

A Markov decision analytic model was used to evaluate long-term outcomes resulting from strategies using computed tomographic angiography (CTA), magnetic resonance imaging, nonenhanced CT, or duplex ultrasound with intravenous (IV) thrombolysis being administered after positive findings. The analysis was performed from the societal perspective based on US recommendations. Input parameters were derived from the literature. Costs were obtained from United States costing sources and published literature. Outcomes were lifetime costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), incremental cost-effectiveness ratios, and net monetary benefits, with a willingness-to-pay threshold of $80,000 per QALY. The strategy with the highest net monetary benefit was considered the most cost-effective. Extensive deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to explore the effect of varying parameter values.

RESULTS

In the reference case analysis, CTA dominated all other imaging strategies. CTA yielded 0.02 QALYs more than magnetic resonance imaging and 0.04 QALYs more than duplex ultrasound followed by CTA. At a willingness-to-pay threshold of $80,000 per QALY, CTA yielded the highest net monetary benefits. The probability that CTA is cost-effective was 96% at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $80,000/QALY. Sensitivity analyses showed that duplex ultrasound was cost-effective only for a prior probability of ≤0.02 and that these results were only minimally influenced by duplex ultrasound sensitivity and specificity. Nonenhanced CT and magnetic resonance imaging never became the most cost-effective strategy.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that CTA in patients with possible basilar artery occlusion is cost-effective.

Cost-effectiveness of quantitative pretest probability intended to reduce unnecessary medical radiation exposure in emergency department patients with chest pain and dyspnea

OBJECTIVES

Quantitative pretest probability (qPTP) incorporated into a decision support tool with advice can reduce unnecessary diagnostic testing among patients with symptoms suggestive of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and pulmonary embolism (PE), reducing 30-day costs without an increase in 90-day adverse outcomes. This study estimates long-term (beyond 90-day) costs and outcomes associated with qPTP. The authors hypothesized that qPTP reduces lifetime costs and improves outcomes in low-risk patients with symptoms suggestive of ACS and PE.

METHODS

This was a cost-effectiveness analysis of a multicenter, randomized controlled trial of adult emergency patients with dyspnea and chest pain, in which a clinician encountering a low-risk patient with symptoms suggestive of ACS or PE conducted either the intervention (qPTP for ACS and PE with advice) or the sham (no qPTP and no advice). Effect of the intervention over a patient's lifetime was assessed using a Markov microsimulation model. Short-term costs and outcomes were from the trial; long-term outcomes and costs were from the literature. Outcomes included lifetime transition to PE, ACS, and intracranial hemorrhage (ICH); mortality from cancer, ICH, PE, ACS, renal failure, and ischemic stroke; quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs); and total medical costs compared between simulated intervention and sham groups.

RESULTS

Markov microsimulation for a 40-year-old patient receiving qPTP found lifetime cost savings of $497 for women and $528 for men, associated with small gains in QALYs (2 and 6 days, respectively) and lower rates of cancer mortality in both sexes, but a reduction in ICH only in males. Sensitivity analysis for patients aged 60 years predicted that qPTP would continue to save costs and also reduce mortality from both ICH and cancer. Use of qPTP significantly reduced the lifetime probability of PE diagnosis, with lower probability of death from PE in both sexes aged 40 to 60 years. However, use of qPTP reduced the rate of ACS diagnosis and death from ACS at age 40, but increased the death rate from ACS at age 60 for both sexes.

CONCLUSIONS

Widespread use of a combined qPTP for both ACS and PE has the potential to decrease costs by reducing diagnostic testing, while improving most long-term outcomes in emergency patients with chest pain and dyspnea.

Cost-effectiveness of noninvasive central blood pressure monitoring in the diagnosis of hypertension

BACKGROUND

Central blood pressure (CBP) betters conventional clinical BP (cuff BP) in predicting cardiovascular outcomes. Noninvasive CBP monitoring has emerged as a new technology for management of hypertension. This study aimed to analyze the cost-effectiveness of noninvasive CBP compared to cuff BP monitoring for confirming a diagnosis of hypertension.

METHODS

Lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were estimated for CBP and cuff BP monitoring using a cohort Markov model. We applied model calibration and probabilistic sensitivity analysis on populations representative of the general population, in 10-year age brackets, from age 35 years to over 75 years of age.

RESULTS

The CBP strategy was more cost-effective than cuff BP for men and women across all age subgroups, with mean incremental cost-effectiveness ratios ranging from £226 to £2,750 per QALY gained. The cost-effectiveness was mainly driven by improved patient outcomes, represented by the QALY gains (0.09-0.88), at an acceptable incremental cost (£116-£371). Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses demonstrated the consistency and robustness of the cost-effectiveness of the CBP strategy.

CONCLUSIONS

Early evidence on the diagnostic accuracy of noninvasive CBP monitoring suggests significant improvements in the confirmation of suspected hypertension, compared to cuff BP. This paper suggests that the long-term benefits of improved diagnostic performance justify the supplementary purchase costs of new, noninvasive CBP monitors. The results highlight the potential value of CBP, and hence the value of further research to confirm the diagnostic and prognostic role of CBP for the management of hypertension.

The optimal imaging strategy for patients with stable chest pain: a cost-effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND

The optimal imaging strategy for patients with stable chest pain is uncertain.

OBJECTIVE

To determine the cost-effectiveness of different imaging strategies for patients with stable chest pain.

DESIGN

Microsimulation state-transition model.

DATA SOURCES

Published literature.

TARGET POPULATION

60-year-old patients with a low to intermediate probability of coronary artery disease (CAD).

TIME HORIZON

Lifetime.

PERSPECTIVE

The United States, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands.

INTERVENTION

Coronary computed tomography (CT) angiography, cardiac stress magnetic resonance imaging, stress single-photon emission CT, and stress echocardiography.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Lifetime costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios.

RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS

The strategy that maximized QALYs and was cost-effective in the United States and the Netherlands began with coronary CT angiography, continued with cardiac stress imaging if angiography found at least 50% stenosis in at least 1 coronary artery, and ended with catheter-based coronary angiography if stress imaging induced ischemia of any severity. For U.K. men, the preferred strategy was optimal medical therapy without catheter-based coronary angiography if coronary CT angiography found only moderate CAD or stress imaging induced only mild ischemia. In these strategies, stress echocardiography was consistently more effective and less expensive than other stress imaging tests. For U.K. women, the optimal strategy was stress echocardiography followed by catheter-based coronary angiography if echocardiography induced mild or moderate ischemia.

RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Results were sensitive to changes in the probability of CAD and assumptions about false-positive results.

LIMITATIONS

All cardiac stress imaging tests were assumed to be available. Exercise electrocardiography was included only in a sensitivity analysis. Differences in QALYs among strategies were small.

CONCLUSION

Coronary CT angiography is a cost-effective triage test for 60-year-old patients who have nonacute chest pain and a low to intermediate probability of CAD.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

Erasmus University Medical Center.

Stable angina pectoris

The stable coronary artery disease (SCAD) population is a heterogeneous group of patients both for clinical presentations and for different underlying mechanisms. The recent European Society of Cardiology guidelines extensively review SCAD from its definition to patients' diagnostic and therapeutic management. In this review, we deal with five topics that, in our opinion, represent the most intriguing, novel and/or clinically relevant aspects of this complex coronary condition. Firstly, we deal with a peculiar SCAD population: patients with angina and 'normal' coronary arteries. Secondly, we reinforce the clinical importance of a diagnostic approach based on the pretest probability of disease. Thirdly, we review and critically discuss the novel pharmacological therapies for SCAD patients. Finally, we analyse the results of the most recent clinical trials comparing revascularization versus optimal medical therapy in SCAD patients and review the currently recommended use of intracoronary functional evaluation of stenosis.

Costs, effectiveness, and workload impact of management strategies for women with an adnexal mass

BACKGROUND

We compared the estimated clinical outcomes, costs, and physician workload resulting from available strategies for deciding which women with an adnexal mass should be referred to a gynecologic oncologist.

METHODS

We used a microsimulation model to compare five referral strategies: 1) American Congress of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (ACOG) guidelines, 2) Multivariate Index Assay (MIA) algorithm, 3) Risk of Malignancy Algorithm (ROMA), 4) CA125 alone with lowered cutoff values to prioritize test sensitivity over specificity, 5) referral of all women (Refer All). Test characteristics and relative survival were obtained from the literature and data from a biomarker validation study. Medical costs were estimated using Medicare reimbursements. Travel costs were estimated using discharge data from Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results-Medicare and State Inpatient Databases. Analyses were performed separately for pre- and postmenopausal women (60 000 "subjects" in each), repeated 10 000 times.

RESULTS

Refer All was cost-effective compared with less expensive strategies in both postmenopausal (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio [ICER] $9423/year of life saved (LYS) compared with CA125) and premenopausal women (ICER $10 644/YLS compared with CA125), but would result in an additional 73 cases/year/subspecialist. MIA was more expensive and less effective than Refer All in pre- and postmenopausal women. If Refer All is not a viable option, CA125 is an optimal strategy in postmenopausal women.

CONCLUSIONS

Referral of all women to a subspecialist is an efficient strategy for managing women with adnexal masses requiring surgery, assuming sufficient capacity for additional surgical volume. If a test-based triage strategy is needed, CA125 with lowered cutoff values is a cost-effective strategy.

Cost-effectiveness of CT angiography and perfusion imaging for delayed cerebral ischemia and vasospasm in aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Delayed cerebral ischemia and vasospasm are significant complications following SAH leading to cerebral infarction, functional disability, and death. In recent years, CTA and CTP have been used to increase the detection of delayed cerebral ischemia and vasospasm. Our aim was to perform comparative-effectiveness and cost-effectiveness analyses evaluating CTA and CTP for delayed cerebral ischemia and vasospasm in aneurysmal SAH from a health care payer perspective.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We developed a decision model comparing CTA and CTP with transcranial Doppler sonography for detection of vasospasm and delayed cerebral ischemia in SAH. The clinical pathways were based on the "Guidelines for the Management of Aneurysmal Subarachnoid Hemorrhage: A Guideline for Healthcare Professionals from the American Heart Association/American Stroke Association" (2012). Outcome health states represented mortality and morbidity according to functional outcomes. Input probabilities of symptoms and serial test results from CTA and CTP, transcranial Doppler ultrasound, and digital subtraction angiography were directly derived from an SAH cohort by using a multinomial logistic regression model. Expected benefits, measured as quality-adjusted life years, and costs, measured in 2012 US dollars, were calculated for each imaging strategy. Univariable, multivariable, and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to determine the independent and combined effect of input parameter uncertainty.

RESULTS

The transcranial Doppler ultrasound strategy yielded 13.62 quality-adjusted life years at a cost of $154,719. The CTA and CTP strategy generated 13.89 quality-adjusted life years at a cost of $147,097, resulting in a gain of 0.27 quality-adjusted life years and cost savings of $7622 over the transcranial Doppler ultrasound strategy. Univariable and multivariable sensitivity analyses indicated that results were robust to plausible input parameter uncertainty. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis results yielded 96.8% of iterations in the right lower quadrant, representing higher benefits and lower costs.

CONCLUSIONS

Our model results suggest that CTA and CTP are the preferred imaging strategy in SAH, compared with transcranial Doppler ultrasound, leading to improved clinical outcomes and lower health care costs.

Diagnostic Capabilities of 64 Slice CT Coronography Compared to Classic in Coronary Disease Detection

INTRODUCTION

Cardiovascular disease, among which the most common is coronary disease of the hearth are the main cause of death at middle aged persons in the majority of European countries. Percent of cardiovascular disease in overall mortality among our population is even more than 50%. Up to 55 years of live myocardial infarction is by 5-6 times more common among men, and up to age of 75 years that difference decreases to 2.5 times.

GOAL

The goal of this study is to determine the diagnostic value of 64 slices computerized tomography in detection of coronary disease compared to classic, invasive coronography.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Study included 50 patients, of both genders, at average age of 60 years. Patients underwent CT coronography as well as classic coronography.

RESULTS

Our research prove that the sensitivity of MSCT coronography 92% with positive predictive value of 86%. Mayor difference was in the analysis of CX artery in the evaluation of significant and non-significant stenosis in application of these two methods. During the analysis of LAD and RCA artery there was no statistically significant difference in findings of these two methods.

CONCLUSION

CT coronography is non-invasive, comfortable and reliable method in coronary disease diagnostics. Thanks to its high sensitivity and PPV it enables reliable exclusion of coronary disease and takes significant place in a cardiovascular diseases diagnostic algorithm.

Cost-effectiveness of a novel blood-pool contrast agent in the setting of chest pain evaluation in an emergency department

OBJECTIVE

We evaluated three diagnostic strategies with the objective of comparing the current standard of care for individuals presenting acute chest pain and no history of coronary artery disease (CAD) with a novel diagnostic strategy using an emerging technology (blood-pool contrast agent [BPCA]) to identify the potential benefits and cost reductions.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A decision analytic model of diagnostic strategies and outcomes using a BPCA and a conventional agent for CT angiography (CTA) in patients with acute chest pain was built. The model was used to evaluate three diagnostic strategies: CTA using a BPCA followed by invasive coronary angiography (ICA), CTA using a conventional agent followed by ICA, and ICA alone.

RESULTS

The use of the two CTA-based triage tests before ICA in a population with a CAD prevalence of less than 47% was predicted to be more cost-effective than ICA alone. Using the base-case values and a cost premium for BPCA over the conventional CT agent (cost of BPCA ≈ 5× that of a conventional agent) showed that CTA with a BPCA before ICA resulted in the most cost-effective strategy; the other strategies were ruled out by simple dominance. The model strongly depends on the rates of complications from the diagnostic tests included in the model. In a population with an elevated risk of contrast-induced nephropathy (CIN), a significant premium cost per BPCA dose still resulted in the alternative whereby CTA using BPCA was more cost-effective than CTA using a conventional agent. A similar effect was observed for potential complications resulting from the BPCA injection. Conversely, in the presence of a similar complication rate from BPCA, the diagnostic strategy of CTA using a conventional agent would be the optimal alternative.

CONCLUSION

BPCAs could have a significant impact in the diagnosis of acute chest pain, in particular for populations with high incidences of CIN. In addition, a BPCA strategy could garner further savings if currently excluded phenomena including renal disease and incidental findings were included in the decision model.

Cost-effectiveness of cardiovascular magnetic resonance in the diagnosis of coronary heart disease: an economic evaluation using data from the CE-MARC study

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of diagnostic strategies for coronary heart disease (CHD) derived from the CE-MARC study.

DESIGN

Cost-effectiveness analysis using a decision analytic model to compare eight strategies for the diagnosis of CHD.

SETTING

Secondary care out-patients (Cardiology Department).

PATIENTS

Patients referred to cardiologists for the further evaluation of symptoms thought to be angina pectoris.

INTERVENTIONS

Eight different strategies were considered, including different combinations of exercise treadmill testing (ETT), single-photon emission CT (SPECT), cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) and coronary angiography (CA).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Costs expressed as UK sterling in 2010-2011 prices and health outcomes in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). The time horizon was 50 years.

RESULTS

Based on the characteristics of patients in the CE-MARC study, only two strategies appear potentially cost-effective for diagnosis of CHD, both including CMR. The choice is between two strategies: one in which CMR follows a positive or inconclusive ETT, followed by CA if CMR is positive or inconclusive (Strategy 3 in the model); and the other where CMR is followed by CA if CMR is positive or inconclusive (Strategy 5 in the model). The more cost-effective of these two rests on the threshold cost per QALY gained below which health systems define an intervention as cost-effective. Strategy 3 appears cost-effective at the lower end of the threshold range used in the UK (£20 000 per QALY gained), while Strategy 5 appears cost-effective at the higher end of the threshold range (£30 000 per QALY). The results are robust to various sources of uncertainty although prior likelihood of CHD requiring revascularisation and the rate at which false negative patients are eventually appropriately identified do impact upon the results.

CONCLUSIONS

The CE-MARC study showed that CMR had superior diagnostic accuracy to SPECT and concluded that CMR should be more widely used in the investigation of patients with CHD. The economic evaluation results show that using CMR is also a cost-effective strategy and supports the wider adoption of this modality.

CT fractional flow reserve: the next level in non-invasive cardiac imaging

The haemodynamic effect of a coronary artery stenosis is a better predictor of prognosis than anatomical lumen obstruction. Until recently, no individual non-invasive test could provide both accurate coronary anatomy and lesion-specific myocardial ischaemia. However, computer tomography (CT) fractional flow reserve, which can be calculated from a standard CT coronary angiogram, was recently demonstrated to accurately detect and rule out the haemodynamic significance of individual coronary artery stenoses.

Prediction model to estimate presence of coronary artery disease: retrospective pooled analysis of existing cohorts

OBJECTIVES

To develop prediction models that better estimate the pretest probability of coronary artery disease in low prevalence populations.

DESIGN

Retrospective pooled analysis of individual patient data.

SETTING

18 hospitals in Europe and the United States.

PARTICIPANTS

Patients with stable chest pain without evidence for previous coronary artery disease, if they were referred for computed tomography (CT) based coronary angiography or catheter based coronary angiography (indicated as low and high prevalence settings, respectively).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Obstructive coronary artery disease (≥ 50% diameter stenosis in at least one vessel found on catheter based coronary angiography). Multiple imputation accounted for missing predictors and outcomes, exploiting strong correlation between the two angiography procedures. Predictive models included a basic model (age, sex, symptoms, and setting), clinical model (basic model factors and diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidaemia, and smoking), and extended model (clinical model factors and use of the CT based coronary calcium score). We assessed discrimination (c statistic), calibration, and continuous net reclassification improvement by cross validation for the four largest low prevalence datasets separately and the smaller remaining low prevalence datasets combined.

RESULTS

We included 5677 patients (3283 men, 2394 women), of whom 1634 had obstructive coronary artery disease found on catheter based coronary angiography. All potential predictors were significantly associated with the presence of disease in univariable and multivariable analyses. The clinical model improved the prediction, compared with the basic model (cross validated c statistic improvement from 0.77 to 0.79, net reclassification improvement 35%); the coronary calcium score in the extended model was a major predictor (0.79 to 0.88, 102%). Calibration for low prevalence datasets was satisfactory.

CONCLUSIONS

Updated prediction models including age, sex, symptoms, and cardiovascular risk factors allow for accurate estimation of the pretest probability of coronary artery disease in low prevalence populations. Addition of coronary calcium scores to the prediction models improves the estimates.

Coronary computed tomography versus exercise testing in patients with stable chest pain: comparative effectiveness and costs

BACKGROUND

To determine the comparative effectiveness and costs of a CT-strategy and a stress-electrocardiography-based strategy (standard-of-care; SOC-strategy) for diagnosing coronary artery disease (CAD).

METHODS

A decision analysis was performed based on a well-documented prospective cohort of 471 outpatients with stable chest pain with follow-up combined with best-available evidence from the literature. Outcomes were correct classification of patients as CAD- (no obstructive CAD), CAD+ (obstructive CAD without revascularization) and indication for Revascularization (using a combination reference standard), diagnostic costs, lifetime health care costs, and quality-adjusted life years (QALY). Parameter uncertainty was analyzed using probabilistic sensitivity analysis.

RESULTS

For men (and women), diagnostic cost savings were €245 (€252) for the CT-strategy as compared to the SOC-strategy. The CT-strategy classified 82% (88%) of simulated men (women) in the appropriate disease category, whereas 83% (85%) were correctly classified by the SOC-strategy. The long-term cost-effectiveness analysis showed that the SOC-strategy was dominated by the CT-strategy, which was less expensive (-€229 in men, -€444 in women) and more effective (+0.002 QALY in men, +0.005 in women). The CT-strategy was cost-saving (-€231) but also less effective compared to SOC (-0.003 QALY) in men with a pre-test probability of ≥ 70%. The CT-strategy was cost-effective in 100% of simulations, except for men with a pre-test probability ≥ 70% in which case it was 59%.

CONCLUSIONS

The results suggest that a CT-based strategy is less expensive and equally effective compared to SOC in all women and in men with a pre-test probability <70%.

Influence of coronary artery disease prevalence on predictive values of coronary CT angiography: a meta-regression analysis

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the impact of coronary artery disease (CAD) prevalence on the predictive values of coronary CT angiography.

METHODS

We performed a meta-regression based on a generalised linear mixed model using the binomial distribution and a logit link to analyse the influence of the prevalence of CAD in published studies on the per-patient negative and positive predictive values of CT in comparison to conventional coronary angiography as the reference standard. A prevalence range in which the negative predictive value was higher than 90%, while at the same time the positive predictive value was higher than 70% was considered appropriate.

RESULTS

The summary negative and positive predictive values of coronary CT angiography were 93.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] 92.8-94.5%) and 87.5% (95% CI, 86.5-88.5%), respectively. With 95% confidence, negative and positive predictive values higher than 90% and 70% were available with CT for a CAD prevalence of 18-63%. CT systems with >16 detector rows met these requirements for the positive (P < 0.01) and negative (P < 0.05) predictive values in a significantly broader range than systems with ≤16 detector rows.

CONCLUSION

It is reasonable to perform coronary CT angiography as a rule-out test in patients with a low-to-intermediate likelihood of disease.

A clinical prediction rule for the diagnosis of coronary artery disease: validation, updating, and extension

AIMS

The aim was to validate, update, and extend the Diamond-Forrester model for estimating the probability of obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) in a contemporary cohort.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Prospectively collected data from 14 hospitals on patients with chest pain without a history of CAD and referred for conventional coronary angiography (CCA) were used. Primary outcome was obstructive CAD, defined as ≥ 50% stenosis in one or more vessels on CCA. The validity of the Diamond-Forrester model was assessed using calibration plots, calibration-in-the-large, and recalibration in logistic regression. The model was subsequently updated and extended by revising the predictive value of age, sex, and type of chest pain. Diagnostic performance was assessed by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (c-statistic) and reclassification was determined. We included 2260 patients, of whom 1319 had obstructive CAD on CCA. Validation demonstrated an overestimation of the CAD probability, especially in women. The updated and extended models demonstrated a c-statistic of 0.79 (95% CI 0.77-0.81) and 0.82 (95% CI 0.80-0.84), respectively. Sixteen per cent of men and 64% of women were correctly reclassified. The predicted probability of obstructive CAD ranged from 10% for 50-year-old females with non-specific chest pain to 91% for 80-year-old males with typical chest pain. Predictions varied across hospitals due to differences in disease prevalence.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that the Diamond-Forrester model overestimates the probability of CAD especially in women. We updated the predictive effects of age, sex, type of chest pain, and hospital setting which improved model performance and we extended it to include patients of 70 years and older.