An intelligent system approach for asthma prediction in symptomatic preschool children

Predictive Models for Health Deterioration: Understanding Disease Pathways for Personalized Medicine

Artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) methods are currently widely employed in medicine and healthcare. A PubMed search returns more than 100,000 articles on these topics published between 2018 and 2022 alone. Notwithstanding several recent reviews in various subfields of AI and ML in medicine, we have yet to see a comprehensive review around the methods' use in longitudinal analysis and prediction of an individual patient's health status within a personalized disease pathway. This review seeks to fill that gap. After an overview of the AI and ML methods employed in this field and of specific medical applications of models of this type, the review discusses the strengths and limitations of current studies and looks ahead to future strands of research in this field. We aim to enable interested readers to gain a detailed impression of the research currently available and accordingly plan future work around predictive models for deterioration in health status.

Machine learning model for classification of predominantly allergic and non-allergic asthma among preschool children with asthma hospitalization

OBJECTIVE

Asthma is the most frequent chronic airway illness in preschool children and is difficult to diagnose due to the disease's heterogeneity. This study aimed to investigate different machine learning models and suggested the most effective one to classify two forms of asthma in preschool children (predominantly allergic asthma and non-allergic asthma) using a minimum number of features.

METHODS

After pre-processing, 127 patients (70 with non-allergic asthma and 57 with predominantly allergic asthma) were chosen for final analysis from the Frankfurt dataset, which had asthma-related information on 205 patients. The Random Forest algorithm and Chi-square were used to select the key features from a total of 63 features. Six machine learning models: random forest, extreme gradient boosting, support vector machines, adaptive boosting, extra tree classifier, and logistic regression were then trained and tested using 10-fold stratified cross-validation.

RESULTS

Among all features, age, weight, C-reactive protein, eosinophilic granulocytes, oxygen saturation, pre-medication inhaled corticosteroid + long-acting beta2-agonist (PM-ICS + LABA), PM-other (other pre-medication), H-Pulmicort/celestamine (Pulmicort/celestamine during hospitalization), and H-azithromycin (azithromycin during hospitalization) were found to be highly important. The support vector machine approach with a linear kernel was able to diffrentiate between predominantly allergic asthma and non-allergic asthma with higher accuracy (77.8%), precision (0.81), with a true positive rate of 0.73 and a true negative rate of 0.81, a F1 score of 0.81, and a ROC-AUC score of 0.79. Logistic regression was found to be the second-best classifier with an overall accuracy of 76.2%.

CONCLUSION

Predominantly allergic and non-allergic asthma can be classified using machine learning approaches based on nine features.

Supplemental data for this article is available online at at www.tandfonline.com/ijas .

A scoping review of asthma and machine learning

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to determine the extent of machine learning (ML) application in asthma research and to identify research gaps while mapping the existing literature.

DATA SOURCES

We conducted a scoping review. PubMed, ProQuest, and Embase Scopus databases were searched with an end date of September 18, 2020.

STUDY SELECTION

DistillerSR was used for data management. Inclusion criteria were an asthma focus, human participants, ML techniques, and written in English. Exclusion criteria were abstract only, simulation-based, not human based, or were reviews or commentaries. Descriptive statistics were presented.

RESULTS

A total of 6,317 potential articles were found. After removing duplicates, and reviewing the titles and abstracts, 102 articles were included for the full text analysis. Asthma episode prediction (24.5%), asthma phenotype classification (16.7%), and genetic profiling of asthma (12.7%) were the top three study topics. Cohort (52.9%), cross-sectional (20.6%), and case-control studies (11.8%) were the study designs most frequently used. Regarding the ML techniques, 34.3% of the studies used more than one technique. Neural networks, clustering, and random forests were the most common ML techniques used where they were used in 20.6%, 18.6%, and 17.6% of studies, respectively. Very few studies considered location of residence (i.e. urban or rural status).

CONCLUSIONS

The use of ML in asthma studies has been increasing with most of this focused on the three major topics (>50%). Future research using ML could focus on gaps such as a broader range of study topics and focus on its use in additional populations (e.g. location of residence).

Supplemental data for this article is available online at http://dx.doi.org/ .

Does machine learning have a role in the prediction of asthma in children?

Asthma is the most common chronic lung disease in childhood. There has been a significant worldwide effort to develop tools/methods to identify children's risk for asthma as early as possible for preventative and early management strategies. Unfortunately, most childhood asthma prediction tools using conventional statistical models have modest accuracy, sensitivity, and positive predictive value. Machine learning is an approach that may improve on conventional models by finding patterns and trends from large and complex datasets. Thus far, few studies have utilized machine learning to predict asthma in children. This review aims to critically assess these studies, describe their limitations, and discuss future directions to move from proof-of-concept to clinical application.

Development of childhood asthma prediction models using machine learning approaches

BACKGROUND

Respiratory symptoms are common in early life and often transient. It is difficult to identify in which children these will persist and result in asthma. Machine learning (ML) approaches have the potential for better predictive performance and generalisability over existing childhood asthma prediction models. This study applied ML approaches to predict school-age asthma (age 10) in early life (Childhood Asthma Prediction in Early life, CAPE model) and at preschool age (Childhood Asthma Prediction at Preschool age, CAPP model).

METHODS

Clinical and environmental exposure data was collected from children enrolled in the Isle of Wight Birth Cohort (N = 1368, ∼15% asthma prevalence). Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE) identified an optimal subset of features predictive of school-age asthma for each model. Seven state-of-the-art ML classification algorithms were used to develop prognostic models. Training was performed by applying fivefold cross-validation, imputation, and resampling. Predictive performance was evaluated on the test set. Models were further externally validated in the Manchester Asthma and Allergy Study (MAAS) cohort.

RESULTS

RFE identified eight and twelve predictors for the CAPE and CAPP models, respectively. Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithms provided the best performance for both the CAPE (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, AUC = 0.71) and CAPP (AUC = 0.82) models. Both models demonstrated good generalisability in MAAS (CAPE 8-year = 0.71, 11-year = 0.71, CAPP 8-year = 0.83, 11-year = 0.79) and excellent sensitivity to predict a subgroup of persistent wheezers.

CONCLUSION

Using ML approaches improved upon the predictive performance of existing regression-based models, with good generalisability and ability to rule in asthma and predict persistent wheeze.

Childhood asthma- pathogenesis and phenotypes

In the pathogenesis of asthma in children there is a pivotal role for a type 2 inflammatory response to early life exposures or events. Interactions between infections, atopy, genetic susceptibility, and environmental exposures (such as farmyard environment, air pollution, tobacco smoke exposure) influence the development of wheezing illness and the risk for progression to asthma. The immune system, lung function and the microbiome in gut and airways develop in parallel and dysbiosis of the microbiome may be a critical factor in asthma development. Increased infant weight gain and preterm birth are other risk factors for development of asthma and reduced lung function. The complex interplay between these factors explains the heterogeneity of asthma in children. Subgroups of patients can be identified as phenotypes based on clinical parameters, or endotypes, based on a specific pathophysiological mechanism. Paediatric asthma phenotypes and endotypes may ultimately help to improve diagnosis of asthma, prediction of asthma development and treatment of individual children, based on clinical, temporal, developmental or inflammatory characteristics. Unbiased, data-driven clustering, using a multidimensional or systems biology approach may be needed to better define phenotypes. The present knowledge on inflammatory phenotypes of childhood asthma has now been successfully applied in the treatment with biologicals of children with severe therapy resistant asthma, and it is to be expected that more personalized treatment options may become available.

Prenatal exposure to air pollutants and childhood atopic dermatitis and allergic rhinitis adopting machine learning approaches: 14-year follow-up birth cohort study

The incidence of childhood atopic dermatitis (AD) and allergic rhinitis (AR) is increasing. This warrants development of measures to predict and prevent these conditions. We aimed to investigate the predictive ability of a spectrum of data mining methods to predict childhood AD and AR using longitudinal birth cohort data. We conducted a 14-year follow-up of infants born to pregnant women who had undergone maternal examinations at nine selected maternity hospitals across Taiwan during 2000-2005. The subjects were interviewed using structured questionnaires to record data on basic demographics, socioeconomic status, lifestyle, medical history, and 24-h dietary recall. Hourly concentrations of air pollutants within 1 year before childbirth were obtained from 76 national air quality monitoring stations in Taiwan. We utilized weighted K-nearest neighbour method (k = 3) to infer the personalized air pollution exposure. Machine learning methods were performed on the heterogeneous attributes set to predict allergic diseases in children. A total of 1439 mother-infant pairs were recruited in machine learning analysis. The prevalence of AD and AR in children up to 14 years of age were 6.8% and 15.9%, respectively. Overall, tree-based models achieved higher sensitivity and specificity than other methods, with areas under receiver operating characteristic curve of 83% for AD and 84% for AR, respectively. Our findings confirmed that prenatal air quality is an important factor affecting the predictive ability. Moreover, different air quality indices were better predicted, in combination than separately. Combining heterogeneous attributes including environmental exposures, demographic information, and allergens is the key to a better prediction of children allergies in the general population. Prenatal exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and its concatenation changes with time were significant predictors for AD and AR till adolescent.

Prediction models for childhood asthma: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

The inability to objectively diagnose childhood asthma before age five often results in both under-treatment and over-treatment of asthma in preschool children. Prediction tools for estimating a child's risk of developing asthma by school-age could assist physicians in early asthma care for preschool children. This review aimed to systematically identify and critically appraise studies which either developed novel or updated existing prediction models for predicting school-age asthma.

METHODS

Three databases (MEDLINE, Embase and Web of Science Core Collection) were searched up to July 2019 to identify studies utilizing information from children ≤5 years of age to predict asthma in school-age children (6-13 years). Validation studies were evaluated as a secondary objective.

RESULTS

Twenty-four studies describing the development of 26 predictive models published between 2000 and 2019 were identified. Models were either regression-based (n = 21) or utilized machine learning approaches (n = 5). Nine studies conducted validations of six regression-based models. Fifteen (out of 21) models required additional clinical tests. Overall model performance, assessed by area under the receiver operating curve (AUC), ranged between 0.66 and 0.87. Models demonstrated moderate ability to either rule in or rule out asthma development, but not both. Where external validation was performed, models demonstrated modest generalizability (AUC range: 0.62-0.83).

CONCLUSION

Existing prediction models demonstrated moderate predictive performance, often with modest generalizability when independently validated. Limitations of traditional methods have shown to impair predictive accuracy and resolution. Exploration of novel methods such as machine learning approaches may address these limitations for future school-age asthma prediction.

Special Considerations in Preschool Age

The diagnosis of asthma can be particularly difficult in young children, in whom wheezing is not always synonym with asthma. It is also difficult to predict which preschool children with wheeze will go on to be true asthmatics. In this chapter, we will characterize preschool wheezing and asthma and discuss early risk factors for the development of severe asthma. We will also review risk factors for severe acute wheezing in young children. Finally, we will describe the natural history and prognosis of wheezing and some of the attempts at early identification of children who will develop severe asthma.

A comparative study of machine learning classifiers for risk prediction of asthma disease

Asthma is a chronic disease characterized by wheezing, chest tightening and difficulty in breathing due to inflammation of lung airways. Early risk prediction of asthma is crucial for proper and effective management. This study presents the use of machine learning approach for risk prediction of asthma by evaluating Raman spectral variations between asthmatic as well as healthy sera samples. Specifically, Raman spectra from 150 asthma and 52 healthy control blood sera samples were acquired. Spectral analyses illustrated significant spectral variations (p < 0.0001) in the asthmatic samples when compared with healthy sera. The existing spectral differences were further exploited by using artificial neural network (ANN) along with support vector machine (SVM) and random forest (RF) algorithms towards machine-assisted classification of the two groups. Quantitative comparison of the evaluation metrics of the classification algorithms showed superior performance of SVM model. Our results indicate that Raman spectroscopy in tandem with SVM can be used in the diagnosis and machine-assisted classification of asthma patients with promising accuracy.

Development of allergic sensitization and its relevance to paediatric asthma

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The purpose of this review is to summarize the recent evidence on the distinct atopic phenotypes and their relationship with childhood asthma. We start by considering definitions and phenotypic classification of atopy and then review evidence on its association with asthma in children.

RECENT FINDINGS

It is now well recognized that both asthma and atopy are complex entities encompassing various different sub-groups that also differ in the way they interconnect. The lack of gold standards for diagnostic markers of atopy and asthma further adds to the existing complexity over diagnostic accuracy and definitions. Although recent statistical phenotyping studies contributed significantly to our understanding of these heterogeneous disorders, translating these findings into meaningful information and effective therapies requires further work on understanding underpinning biological mechanisms.

SUMMARY

The disaggregation of allergic sensitization may help predict how the allergic disease is likely to progress. One of the important questions is how best to incorporate tests for the assessment of allergic sensitization into diagnostic algorithms for asthma, both in terms of confirming asthma diagnosis, and the assessment of future risk.

Validation of childhood asthma predictive tools: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

There is uncertainty about the clinical usefulness of currently available asthma predictive tools. Validation of predictive tools in different populations and clinical settings is an essential requirement for the assessment of their predictive performance, reproducibility and generalizability. We aimed to critically appraise asthma predictive tools which have been validated in external studies.

METHODS

We searched MEDLINE and EMBASE (1946-2017) for all available childhood asthma prediction models and focused on externally validated predictive tools alongside the studies in which they were originally developed. We excluded non-English and non-original studies. PROSPERO registration number is CRD42016035727.

RESULTS

From 946 screened papers, eight were included in the review. Statistical approaches for creation of prediction tools included chi-square tests, logistic regression models and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator. Predictive models were developed and validated in general and high-risk populations. Only three prediction tools were externally validated: the Asthma Predictive Index, the PIAMA and the Leicester asthma prediction tool. A variety of predictors has been tested, but no studies examined the same combination. There was heterogeneity in definition of the primary outcome among development and validation studies, and no objective measurements were used for asthma diagnosis. The performance of tools varied at different ages of outcome assessment. We observed a discrepancy between the development and validation studies in the tools' predictive performance in terms of sensitivity and positive predictive values.

CONCLUSIONS

Validated asthma predictive tools, reviewed in this paper, provided poor predictive accuracy with performance variation in sensitivity and positive predictive value.

The soft computing-based approach to investigate allergic diseases: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Early recognition of inflammatory markers and their relation to asthma, adverse drug reactions, allergic rhinitis, atopic dermatitis and other allergic diseases is an important goal in allergy. The vast majority of studies in the literature are based on classic statistical methods; however, developments in computational techniques such as soft computing-based approaches hold new promise in this field.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this manuscript is to systematically review the main soft computing-based techniques such as artificial neural networks, support vector machines, bayesian networks and fuzzy logic to investigate their performances in the field of allergic diseases.

METHODS

The review was conducted following PRISMA guidelines and the protocol was registered within PROSPERO database (CRD42016038894). The research was performed on PubMed and ScienceDirect, covering the period starting from September 1, 1990 through April 19, 2016.

RESULTS

The review included 27 studies related to allergic diseases and soft computing performances. We observed promising results with an overall accuracy of 86.5%, mainly focused on asthmatic disease. The review reveals that soft computing-based approaches are suitable for big data analysis and can be very powerful, especially when dealing with uncertainty and poorly characterized parameters. Furthermore, they can provide valuable support in case of lack of data and entangled cause-effect relationships, which make it difficult to assess the evolution of disease.

CONCLUSIONS

Although most works deal with asthma, we believe the soft computing approach could be a real breakthrough and foster new insights into other allergic diseases as well.

A systematic review of predictive models for asthma development in children

BACKGROUND

Asthma is the most common pediatric chronic disease affecting 9.6 % of American children. Delay in asthma diagnosis is prevalent, resulting in suboptimal asthma management. To help avoid delay in asthma diagnosis and advance asthma prevention research, researchers have proposed various models to predict asthma development in children. This paper reviews these models.

METHODS

A systematic review was conducted through searching in PubMed, EMBASE, CINAHL, Scopus, the Cochrane Library, the ACM Digital Library, IEEE Xplore, and OpenGrey up to June 3, 2015. The literature on predictive models for asthma development in children was retrieved, with search results limited to human subjects and children (birth to 18 years). Two independent reviewers screened the literature, performed data extraction, and assessed article quality.

RESULTS

The literature search returned 13,101 references in total. After manual review, 32 of these references were determined to be relevant and are discussed in the paper. We identify several limitations of existing predictive models for asthma development in children, and provide preliminary thoughts on how to address these limitations.

CONCLUSIONS

Existing predictive models for asthma development in children have inadequate accuracy. Efforts to improve these models' performance are needed, but are limited by a lack of a gold standard for asthma development in children.

Predicting phenotypes of asthma and eczema with machine learning

Background

There is increasing recognition that asthma and eczema are heterogeneous diseases. We investigated the predictive ability of a spectrum of machine learning methods to disambiguate clinical sub-groups of asthma, wheeze and eczema, using a large heterogeneous set of attributes in an unselected population. The aim was to identify to what extent such heterogeneous information can be combined to reveal specific clinical manifestations.

Methods

The study population comprised a cross-sectional sample of adults, and included representatives of the general population enriched by subjects with asthma. Linear and non-linear machine learning methods, from logistic regression to random forests, were fit on a large attribute set including demographic, clinical and laboratory features, genetic profiles and environmental exposures. Outcome of interest were asthma, wheeze and eczema encoded by different operational definitions. Model validation was performed via bootstrapping.

Results

The study population included 554 adults, 42% male, 38% previous or current smokers. Proportion of asthma, wheeze, and eczema diagnoses was 16.7%, 12.3%, and 21.7%, respectively. Models were fit on 223 non-genetic variables plus 215 single nucleotide polymorphisms. In general, non-linear models achieved higher sensitivity and specificity than other methods, especially for asthma and wheeze, less for eczema, with areas under receiver operating characteristic curve of 84%, 76% and 64%, respectively. Our findings confirm that allergen sensitisation and lung function characterise asthma better in combination than separately. The predictive ability of genetic markers alone is limited. For eczema, new predictors such as bio-impedance were discovered.

Conclusions

More usefully-complex modelling is the key to a better understanding of disease mechanisms and personalised healthcare: further advances are likely with the incorporation of more factors/attributes and longitudinal measures.

Phytochemical profiles and biological activity evaluation of Zanthoxylum bungeanum Maxim seed against asthma in murine models

ETHNOPHARMACOLOGICAL RELEVANCE

Zanthoxylum bungeanum Maxim seed (ZBMS) has been used in Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) as an ingredient of polyherbal formulations for the treatment of inflammation and asthma. The aim of this study was to analyze the major composition and to evaluate the anti-asthma activity of ZBMS.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Some murine models including acetylcholine/histamine-induced asthma, ovalbumin-induced airway inflammation, ear edema and toe swelling measurement, citric acid-induced cough, and anti-stress abilities were investigated to fully study the anti-asthma activity of ZBMS.GC chromatography was also performed to analyze the major fatty acid composition of ZBMS.

RESULTS

The results demonstrated that the major fatty acid composition of ZBMS includes oleic acid (20.15%), linoleic acid (26.54%), and α-linolenic acid (30.57%), which was the leading component of ZBMS, and that the total fatty acid content of ZBMS was 77.27%. The murine models demonstrated that ZBMS displays a protective effect on guinea pig sensitization, a dose-dependent inhibition of the increases in RL and decreases in Cdyn, which resulted in the relief of auricle edema and toe swelling in mice and anti-stress activity.

CONCLUSION

Our results validate the traditional use of ZBMS for the treatment of asthma and other inflammatory joint disorders, and suggest that ZBMS has potential as a new therapeutic agent for asthma management.