Estimating the optimal control of zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis by the use of a mathematical model

Strategic use of 4 % deltamethrin impregnated-collar in seropositive dogs reduces the incidence of seroreactivity to visceral leishmaniasis in dogs from endemic areas

The effectiveness of a visceral leishmaniasis (VL) control strategy based on the application of 4 % deltamethrin impregnated collars (DIC) exclusively in seropositive dogs was assessed between 2018 and 2019, through a prospective study. The effectiveness of DIC-collaring was evaluated by comparing the incidence rate of anti-leishmanial antibodies among dogs from two endemic districts in Brazil. In one of the areas, the conventional control measure which is based on the non-compulsory euthanasia of LV seropositive dogs, was practiced by the official healthy service as a regular procedure, whereas strategic collaring, conceived in this study, was carried out in the other. Results of serological tests applied to serum samples collected from all domiciled dogs were evaluated in three consecutive times, spaced by around 200 days. Incidence rates of VL seroreactivity were compared between districts in the same period of time as well as within the same district, in consecutive periods. Based on the results, the risk of infection in the population under conventional control measure was up to four times higher than the risk of infection where DIC-collaring was used. The strategic use of collar proposed here emerged as a promising measure for VL control in dogs from endemic areas. Strategic collaring does not rely on the euthanasia of infected animals, an extremely controversial procedure, and instead of being used in all dogs, as collaring is normally recommended; only seropositive dogs are intervened. Strategic use of DIC has the potential to drastically reduce costs, if compared to mass collaring canine population.

Global Distribution of Canine Visceral Leishmaniasis and the Role of the Dog in the Epidemiology of the Disease

Visceral leishmaniasis is a disease caused by protozoa of the species Leishmania (Leishmania) infantum (syn = Leishmania chagasi) and Leishmania (Leishmania) donovani, which are transmitted by hematophagous insects of the genera Lutzomyia and Phlebotomus. The domestic dog (Canis familiaris) is considered the main urban reservoir of the parasite due to the high parasite load on its skin, serving as a source of infection for sandfly vectors and, consequently, perpetuating the disease in the urban environment. Some factors are considered important in the perpetuation and spread of canine visceral leishmaniasis (CVL) in urban areas, such as stray dogs, with their errant behavior, and houses that have backyards with trees, shade, and organic materials, creating an attractive environment for sandfly vectors. CVL is found in approximately 50 countries, with the number of infected dogs reaching millions. However, due to the difficulty of controlling and diagnosing the disease, the number of infected animals could be even greater. In the four continents endemic for CVL, there are reports of disease expansion in endemic countries such as Brazil, Italy, Morocco, and Tunisia, as well as in areas where CVL is not endemic, for example, Uruguay. Socio-environmental factors, such as migration, drought, deforestation, and global warming, have been pointed out as reasons for the expansion into areas where it had been absent. Thus, the objective of this review is to address (i) the distribution of CVL in endemic areas, (ii) the role of the dog in the visceral leishmaniasis epidemiology and the factors that influence dog infection and the spread of the disease, and (iii) the challenges faced in the control of CVL.

Sex-structured disease transmission model and control mechanisms for visceral leishmaniasis (VL)

BACKGROUND

Leishmaniasis are a group of diseases caused by more than 20 species of the protozoan that are transmitted through the bite of female sand fly. The disease is endemic to 98 countries of the world. It affects most commonly the poorest of the poor and mainly males. Several research has been conducted to propose disease control strategies. Effective medical care, vector control, environmental hygiene, and personal protection are the mainstays of the current preventative and control methods. The mathematical models for the transmission dynamics of the disease studied so far did not consider the sex-biased burden of the disease into consideration.

METHODOLOGY

Unlike the previous VL works, this study introduces a new deterministic sex-structured model for understanding the transmission dynamics of visceral leishmaniasis. Basic properties of the model including basic reproduction number ([Formula: see text]), and conditions for the existence of backward bifurcation of the model are explored. Baseline parameter values were estimated after the model was fitted to Ethiopia's VL data. Sensitivity analysis of the model was performed to identify the parameters that significantly impact the disease threshold. Numerical simulations were performed using baseline parameter values, and scenario analysis is performed by changing some of these parameters as appropriate.

CONCLUSION

The analysis of the model shows that there is a possibility for a backward bifurcation for [Formula: see text], which means bringing [Formula: see text] to less than unity may not be enough to eradicate the disease. Our numerical result shows that the implementation of disease-preventive strategies, as well as effectively treating the affected ones can significantly reduce the disease prevalence if applied for more proportion of the male population. Furthermore, the implementation of vector management strategies also can considerably reduce the total prevalence of the disease. However, it is demonstrated that putting more effort in treating affected reservoir animals may not have any significant effect on the overall prevalence of the disease as compared to other possible mechanisms. The numerical simulation infers that a maximum of 60% of extra preventative measures targeted to only male population considerably reduces the total prevalence of VL by 80%. It is also possible to decrease the total prevalence of VL by 69.51% when up to 50% additional infected males receive treatment with full efficacy. Moreover, applying a maximum of 15% additional effort to reduce the number of vectors, decreases the total VL prevalence by 57.71%. Therefore, in order to reduce the disease burden of visceral leishmaniasis, public health officials and concerned stakeholders need to give more emphasis to the proportion of male humans in their intervention strategies.

Demographics and tenure of the Chilean urban dog population. A mathematical model

BACKGROUND

Irresponsible dog ownership in urban areas is a public health concern with significant implications for human, animal, and environmental welfare. Factors such as abandonment, variations in adoption, insufficient supervision, emerging identification initiatives, and collective feeding impact the growth of stray dog populations and the transmission of diseases. Developing a modeling tool to understand the dynamics of canine population growth and the effect of human behavior on this phenomenon is essential.

METHODS

An ordinary differential equation model was developed to depict the growth dynamics and movements of urban dog populations, distinguishing between those with owners (restricted and semi-restricted) and those without (stray and community dogs). Two equilibrium states of the system were analyzed: with and without the presence of individually owned dogs. An increase rate for the population of individually owned dogs was calculated, and a local sensitivity analysis was conducted to assess the impact of parameters on the reduction of this population. Additionally, two global sensitivity analysis methods were used to evaluate the simultaneous influence of the parameters.

RESULTS

Findings indicate that system equilibrium depends on various dog categories. Although total eradication of stray and community dogs is unlikely, equilibrium levels are directly related to subpopulation growth rates, responsible ownership practices, and adoption and abandonment rates. The growth rates of the population of dogs without individual owners have a direct and proportional influence on their regulation, while adoption rates have an inverse and proportional effect. The study, through global sensitivity analysis, identifies key parameters for each dog subpopulation. For restricted dogs, environmental carrying capacity is the most variable factor; for semi-restricted dogs, awareness of responsible ownership is crucial. The abandonment of restricted dogs significantly impacts stray dog dynamics, while the transition from stray to community status is an important variable factor for community dogs.

CONCLUSION

Addressing the situation of unowned dogs requires a collective effort to reduce risks associated with the spread of zoonotic diseases, environmental pollution, and biodiversity loss, thus contributing to public health and environmental conservation.

Phase I and II Clinical Trial Comparing the LBSap, Leishmune®, and Leish-Tec® Vaccines against Canine Visceral Leishmaniasis

In this study, we performed a phase I and II clinical trial in dogs to evaluate the toxicity and immunogenicity of LBSap-vaccine prototype, in comparison to Leishmune® and Leish-Tec® vaccines. Twenty-eight dogs were classified in four groups: (i) control group received 1 mL of sterile 0.9% saline solution; (ii) LBSap group received 600 μg of Leishmania braziliensis promastigotes protein and 1 mg of saponin adjuvant; (iii) Leishmune®; and (iv) Leish-Tec®. The safety and toxicity of the vaccines were measured before and after three immunizations by clinical, biochemical, and hematological parameters. The clinical examinations revealed that some dogs of LBSap and Leishmune® groups presented changes at the site of vaccination inoculum, such as nodules, mild edema, and local pain, which were transient and disappeared seventy-two hours after vaccination, but these results indicate that adverse changes caused by the immunizations are tolerable. The immunogenicity results demonstrate an increase of B lymphocytes CD21+ regarding the Leishmune® group and monocytes CD14+ concerning LBSap and Leishmune® groups. In the in vitro analyses, an increase in lymphoproliferative activity in LBSap and Leishmune® groups was observed, with an increase of antigen-specific CD4+ and CD8+ T lymphocytes in the LBSap group. A second approach of in vitro assays aimed at evaluating the percentage of antigen-specific CD4+ and CD8+ T lymphocytes producers of IFN-γ and IL-4, where an increase in both IFN-γ producing subpopulations in the LBSap group was observed, also showed an increase in IFN-γ producers in CD8+ lymphocytes in the Leish-Tec® group. Our data regarding immunogenicity indicate that the vaccination process, especially with the LBSap vaccine, generated a protective immune response compatible with L. infantum parasite control. Based on the foregoing, the LBSap vaccine would be suitable for further studies of phase III clinical trial in endemic areas with high prevalence and incidence of canine visceral leishmaniasis (VL) cases.

Impact of dogs with deltamethrin-impregnated collars on prevalence of visceral leishmaniasis

Leishmaniasis is a vector borne zoonosis which is classified as a neglected tropical disease. Among the three most common forms of the disease, Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) is the most threatening to human health, causing 20,000 to 30,000 deaths worldwide each year. Areas where VL is mostly endemic have unprotected dogs in community and houses. The "presence of dogs usually increases VL risk for humans since dogs are the principal reservoir host for the parasite of the disease. Based on this fact, most earlier studies consider culling dogs as a control measure for the spread of VL. A more recent control measure has been the use of deltamethrin-impregnated dog collars ( D I D C s) to protect both humans and dogs by putting D I D C s on dogs neck. The presence of dogs helps to grow the sandfly population faster by offering a more suitable blood-meal source. On the other hand, the presence of D I D C s on dogs helps to reduce sandfly population by the lethality of deltamethrin insecticide. This study brings an ecological perspective to this public health concern, aiming to understand the impact of an additional host (here, protected dogs) on disease risk to a primary host (here, humans). To answer this question, we compare two different settings: a community without dogs, and a community with dogs protected with D I D C . Our analysis shows the presence of protected dogs can reduce VL infection risk in humans. However, this disease risk reduction depends on dogs' tolerance for sandfly bites.

Estimating the efficacy of community-wide use of systemic insecticides in dogs to control zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis: A modelling study in a Brazilian scenario

Systemic insecticides in dogs have been suggested as a public health intervention to prevent human cases of Zoonotic Visceral Leishmaniasis (ZVL). But, currently there are no systemic insecticides for dogs registered against zoo-anthropophilic pool blood feeding phlebotomine flies. We predict the impact of community-wide use of systemic insecticide in dog populations as a public health measure to control transmission of Leishmania infantum to humans using a mathematical model. We developed a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected (SEI) compartmental model to describe L. infantum transmission dynamics in dogs, with a vectorial capacity term to represent transmission between L. infantum-hosting dogs via phlebotomine flies. For Infected (I) dogs two levels of infectiousness were modelled, high infectiousness and low infectiousness. Human incidence was estimated through its relationship to infection in the dog population. We evaluated outcomes from a wide range of scenarios comprising different combinations of initial insecticide efficacy, duration of insecticide efficacy over time, and proportion of the dog population treated (60%, 70% & 80%). The same reduction in human infection incidence can be achieved via different combinations of insecticide efficacy, duration and dog coverage. For example, a systemic insecticide with an initial efficacy of 80% and 6 months above 65% efficacy would require treating at least 70% of the dogs to reduce the human infection incidence by 50%. Sensitivity analysis showed that the model outcome was most sensitive to baseline values of phlebotomine fly daily survival rate and insecticide coverage. Community-wide use of systemic insecticides applied to the “L. infantum canine reservoir” can significantly reduce human incidence of L. infantum infection. The results of this mathematical model can help defining the insecticide target product profile and how the insecticide should be applied to maximise effectiveness.

Zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis (ZVL) is a potentially deadly disease in humans caused by Leishmania infantum. This leishmania species can be delivered by pool blood feeding zoo-anthropophilic phlebotomine flies to several mammals, the dog population being recognized as the main reservoir. Transmission from infected dogs to humans is through the bite of female phlebotomine sand flies. The disease is endemic in several countries and Brazil has a high prevalence of cases with over 3000 ZVL cases reported per year. The main, inefficient and highly controversial, control measure in Brazil has been culling sero-positive dogs. The community-wide use of systemic insecticides in dogs could be an alternative to control L. infantum transmission from phlebotomine flies to humans. The rationale is that phlebotomine flies which sampled their blood meals from dogs treated with systemic insecticides would die reducing the risk of L. infantum transmission. To reduce the number of ZVL cases, a large proportion of dogs in the community should be treated and the systemic insecticide used should be effective in killing phlebotomine flies acting as vectors of L. infantum parasites for a significant amount of time. We used a mathematical model mimicking L. infantum transmission to show that this novel vector control strategy could be effective. We identified the combination of different key parameters (e.g. insecticide efficacy, duration and proportion of dogs treated) that could lead to a significant reduction of the risk of L. infantum infection in humans.

Current Visceral Leishmaniasis Research: A Research Review to Inspire Future Study

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL), one of the deadliest parasitic diseases in the world, causes more than 50,000 human deaths each year and afflicts millions of people throughout South America, East Africa, South Asia, and Mediterranean Region. In 2015 the World Health Organization classified VL as a neglected tropical disease (NTD), prompting concentrated study of the VL epidemic using mathematical and simulation models. This paper reviews literature related to prevalence and prevention control strategies. More than thirty current research works were reviewed and classified based on VL epidemic study methods, including modeling approaches, control strategies, and simulation techniques since 2013. A summarization of these technical methods, major findings, and contributions from existing works revealed that VL epidemic research efforts must improve in the areas of validating and verifying VL mathematical models with real-world epidemic data. In addition, more dynamic disease control strategies must be explored and advanced simulation techniques must be used to predict VL pandemics.

Spatial and temporal relationships between human and canine visceral leishmaniases in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, 2006-2013

BACKGROUND

Visceral leishmaniasis is a serious public health problem in Brazil, and control of this disease constitutes a major challenge. The purpose of this study was to assess the existing spatial and temporal relationships between cases of canine visceral leishmaniasis (CanL) and human visceral leishmaniasis (HVL) recorded in Belo Horizonte, State of Minas Gerais, from 2006 to 2013.

METHODS

Data provided by the Belo Horizonte Health Services regarding the disease control routine were analyzed in order to perform a retrospective observational and ecological study. Information regarding the incidence rate of HVL and canine seroprevalence was examined in relation to control actions performed atthe 148 coverage areas of healthcare centers for the period between 2006 and 2013. A time series analysis was performed using the Gretl 1.9.12 software followed by the assessment of the existing increasing or declining trend and seasonality in the occurrence of CanL and HVL. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were adjusted, intervention analysis was performed, vector autoregressive models were developed, and Granger causality was used for testing temporal relationships between variables. The hot spot analysis tool was used for cluster identification through Getis-OrdGi statistics. The ArcGis for desktop 10.2.1 software was used for spatial analysis.

RESULTS

We identified 866 HVL cases in Belo Horizonte between 2006 and 2013. The mean proportion of canine seroprevalence (PCP) was 7.31% and the mean proportion of monitored hosts (PMH) was 6.73%.HVL and PCP showed a decreasing trend, while PMH increased over time (P<0.05). Vector Autoregressive (VAR) and Granger analysis showed a temporal relation between CanL and HVL cases. Maps illustrating the spatial distribution of cases and obituaries of HVL and CanL cases also showed an apparent association between the occurrence of leishmaniasis in humans, and data about canine cases recorded in the previous years.

CONCLUSIONS

Cases of HVL were preceded by PMH and PCP cases. Similar results were observed for intraspecific cases (i.e. between PCP and other canine cases and between HVL and other HVL cases), which indicated the existence of favorable environmental conditions for the transmission and spread of L. infantum in Belo Horizonte.

The mass use of deltamethrin collars to control and prevent canine visceral leishmaniasis: A field effectiveness study in a highly endemic area

Background

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a zoonosis of great importance. Limitations in current VL control measures compromise efficacy, indicating the need to implement new strategies. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of the mass use of deltamethrin-impregnated collars in dogs as a public health measure to control and prevent canine visceral leishmaniasis (CVL).

Methodology

An interventional study was implemented in two endemic areas in the district of Monte Gordo (Bahia-Brazil): an intervention area, in which VL seronegative dogs were collared, and a control area in which only conventional CVL control measures were applied. At baseline, seropositive dogs were removed and seronegative dogs were included. Dogs were then reevaluated every 7–8 months for almost two years. At each time point, dogs in the intervention area that remained seronegative received new collars and newly identified seronegative dogs were included and collared. The local zoonosis control authorities were notified of any dogs that tested seropositive in both areas, which were subsequently marked for euthanasia as mandated by the Brazilian Ministry of Health.

Principal findings

In the first serological survey, seroprevalence was similar in both areas. At the second evaluation, significant reductions in seroprevalence were seen in both areas, while seroprevalence in the intervention area reduced to 6.0% during the final evaluation versus an increase of 11.0% in the control area. This significant increase and the estimated relative risk (RR = 0.55) indicated protection against CVL in the intervention area. Although CVL incidence did not differ significantly between the areas, an increased tendency was observed in the control area, which could be due to low seroconversion rates throughout the study or a high loss to follow-up.

Conclusions/Significance

Although our evaluation of the effectiveness of deltamethrin-impregnated collars as a community-wide public health control measure was inconclusive, this measure likely provides protection over time. In endemic areas of Brazil, this strategy represents an operational challenge for local zoonosis control authorities, indicating the need for adjustments, including improved collar design.

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a serious public health problem. Cases of canine VL (CVL) tend to precede cases of human VL and current control measures are ineffective in significantly reducing the number of disease cases. Therefore, in light of the need for new strategies, we evaluated the mass use of dog collars impregnated with deltamethrin as a public health measure to control and prevent CVL in a highly endemic region in Brazil. Although our results were inconclusive, they do point to the possible effectiveness of this measure if it were comprehensively implemented over an extended period of time. We identified the need to adjust the currently employed implementation strategy and call attention to the operational challenges faced by local zoonosis prevention authorities.

Mathematical analysis of a model for zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis

Zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis (ZVL), caused by the protozoan parasite Leishmania infantum and transmitted to humans and reservoir hosts by female sandflies, is endemic in many parts of the world (notably in Africa, Asia and the Mediterranean). This study presents a new mathematical model for assessing the transmission dynamics of ZVL in human and non-human animal reservoir populations. The model undergoes the usual phenomenon of backward bifurcation exhibited by similar vector-borne disease transmission models. In the absence of such phenomenon (which is shown to arise due to the disease-induced mortality in the host populations), the nontrivial disease-free equilibrium of the model is shown to be globally-asymptotically stable when the associated reproduction number of the model is less than unity. Using case and demographic data relevant to ZVL dynamics in Arac̣atuba municipality of Brazil, it is shown, for the default case when systemic insecticide-based drugs are not used to treat infected reservoir hosts, that the associated reproduction number of the model ( ℛ 0 ) ranges from 0.3 to 1.4, with a mean of ℛ 0 = 0.85 . Furthermore, when the effect of such drug treatment is explicitly incorporated in the model (i.e., accounting for the additional larval and sandfly mortality, following feeding on the treated reservoirs), the range of ℛ 0 decreases to ℛ 0 ∈ [ 0.1 , 0.6 ] , with a mean of ℛ 0 = 0.35 (this significantly increases the prospect of the effective control or elimination of the disease). Thus, ZVL transmission models (in communities where such treatment strategy is implemented) that do not explicitly incorporate the effect of such treatment may be over-estimating the disease burden (as measured in terms of ℛ 0 ) in the community. It is shown that ℛ 0 is more sensitive to increases in sandfly lifespan than that of the animal reservoir (so, a strategy that focuses on reducing sandflies, rather than the animal reservoir (e.g., via culling), may be more effective in reducing ZVL burden in the community). Further sensitivity analysis of the model ranks the sandfly removal rate (by natural death or by feeding from insecticide-treated reservoir hosts), the biting rate of sandflies on the reservoir hosts and the progression rate of exposed reservoirs to active ZVL as the three parameters with the most effect on the disease dynamics or burden (as measured in terms of the reproduction number ℛ 0 ). Hence, this study identifies the key parameters that play a key role on the disease dynamics, and thereby contributing in the design of effective control strategies (that target the identified parameters).

The Preventive Control of Zoonotic Visceral Leishmaniasis: Efficacy and Economic Evaluation

Zoonotic Visceral Leishmaniasis (ZVL) is one of the world's deadliest and neglected infectious diseases, according to World Health Organization. This disease is one of major human and veterinary medical significance. The sandfly and the reservoir in urban areas remain among the major challenges for the control activities. In this paper, we evaluated five control strategies (positive dog elimination, insecticide impregnated dog collar, dog vaccination, dog treatment, and sandfly population control), considering disease control results and cost-effectiveness. We elaborated a mathematical model based on a set of differential equations in which three populations were represented (human, dog, and sandfly). Humans and dogs were divided into susceptible, latent, clinically ill, and recovery categories. Sandflies were divided into noninfected, infected, and infective. As the main conclusions, the insecticide impregnated dog collar was the strategy that presented the best combination between disease control and cost-effectiveness. But, depending on the population target, the control results and cost-effectiveness of each strategy may differ. More and detailed studies are needed, specially one which optimizes the control considering more than one strategy in activity.

Mathematical modelling for Zoonotic Visceral Leishmaniasis dynamics: A new analysis considering updated parameters and notified human Brazilian data

Brazil is one of the highest endemic countries for Zoonotic Visceral Leishmaniasis: according to the Brazilian Ministry of Health, the annual number of new human cases and deaths due to this disease has been increasing for the last 20 years. In addition, regarding the Americas, the specific relationship between canine and human for Visceral Leishmaniasis dynamics is still not well understood. In this work we propose a new model for Zoonotic Visceral Leishmaniasis, based on the models previously published by Burattini et al. (1998) and Ribas et al. (2013). Herein, we modeled the disease dynamics using a modified set of differential equations from those two authors, considering the same assumptions (inclusion of human, dog and sandfly populations, all constants over time). From this set of equations we were able to calculate the basic reproduction number R 0 and to analyze the stability and sensitivity of the system to the parameters variability. As main result, when the stability of the system is reached, the normalized reporting human cases rate is estimated in 9.12E-08/day. This estimation is very close to the 2015 report from Araçatuba city, 5.69E-08/day. We also observed from stability and sensitivity analysis that the activity of sandfly population is critical to introduction and maintenance of Zoonotic Visceral Leishmaniasis in the population. In addition, the importance of dog as source of infection concentrates on latent dog, since it does not show clinical symptoms and signs and, therefore, has a great contribution to disease dissemination. As conclusion, considering the presently ethical issues regarding to elimination of positive dog in Brazil and the highly sensitivity of disease dynamics on sandfly population, we recommend that the sandfly population control should be prioritized.

Progress in the Mathematical Modelling of Visceral Leishmaniasis

The leishmaniases comprise a complex of diseases characterized by clinical outcomes that range from self-limiting to chronic, and disfiguring and stigmatizing to life threatening. Diagnostic methods, treatments, and vector and reservoir control options exist, but deciding the most effective interventions requires a quantitative understanding of the population level infection and disease dynamics. The effectiveness of any set of interventions has to be determined within the context of operational conditions, including economic and political commitment. Mathematical models are the best available tools for studying quantitative systems crossing disciplinary spheres (biology, medicine, economics) within environmental and societal constraints. In 2005, the World Health Assembly and government health ministers of India, Nepal, and Bangladesh signed a Memorandum of Understanding to eliminate the life threatening form of leishmaniasis, visceral leishmaniasis (VL), on the Indian subcontinent by 2015 through a combination of early case detection, improved treatments, and vector control. The elimination target is <1 case/10,000 population at the district or subdistrict level compared to the current 20/10,000 in the regions of highest transmission. Towards this goal, this chapter focuses on mathematical models of VL, and the biology driving those models, to enable realistic predictions of the best combination of interventions. Several key issues will be discussed which have affected previous modelling of VL and the direction future modelling may take. Current understanding of the natural history of disease, immunity (and loss of immunity), and stages of infection and their durations are considered particularly for humans, and also for dogs. Asymptomatic and clinical infection are discussed in the context of their relative roles in Leishmania transmission, as well as key components of the parasite-sandfly-vector interaction and intervention strategies including diagnosis, treatment and vector control. Gaps in current biological knowledge and potential avenues to improve model structures and mathematical predictions are identified. Underpinning the marriage between biology and mathematical modelling, the content of this chapter represents the first step towards developing the next generation of models for VL.

Visceral Leishmaniasis on the Indian Subcontinent: Modelling the Dynamic Relationship between Vector Control Schemes and Vector Life Cycles

Background

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a disease caused by two known vector-borne parasite species (Leishmania donovani, L. infantum), transmitted to man by phlebotomine sand flies (species: Phlebotomus and Lutzomyia), resulting in ≈50,000 human fatalities annually, ≈67% occurring on the Indian subcontinent. Indoor residual spraying is the current method of sand fly control in India, but alternative means of vector control, such as the treatment of livestock with systemic insecticide-based drugs, are being evaluated. We describe an individual-based, stochastic, life-stage-structured model that represents a sand fly vector population within a village in India and simulates the effects of vector control via fipronil-based drugs orally administered to cattle, which target both blood-feeding adults and larvae that feed on host feces.

Principle findings

Simulation results indicated efficacy of fipronil-based control schemes in reducing sand fly abundance depended on timing of drug applications relative to seasonality of the sand fly life cycle. Taking into account cost-effectiveness and logistical feasibility, two of the most efficacious treatment schemes reduced population peaks occurring from April through August by ≈90% (applications 3 times per year at 2-month intervals initiated in March) and >95% (applications 6 times per year at 2-month intervals initiated in January) relative to no control, with the cumulative number of sand fly days occurring April-August reduced by ≈83% and ≈97%, respectively, and more specifically during the summer months of peak human exposure (June-August) by ≈85% and ≈97%, respectively.

Conclusions

Our model should prove useful in a priori evaluation of the efficacy of fipronil-based drugs in controlling leishmaniasis on the Indian subcontinent and beyond.

Visceral leishmaniasis is a disease caused by a virulent vector-borne parasite transmitted to man by phlebotomine sand flies. Fipronil-based drugs, administered to cattle orally, provide a potential means of sand fly control by permeating in cattle blood and being excreted in cattle feces, targeting adult females feeding on cattle blood and larvae feeding on cattle feces, respectively. An agent-based, stochastic simulation model was developed to represent sand fly population dynamics in a village in Bihar, India, at all developmental stages, with the goal of predicting the impact of various vector control strategies, utilizing drug treated cattle, on vector population numbers. Results indicate that success of treatment is dependent on the number of treatments applied annually and the seasonality of the sand fly lifecycle. Results further suggest that treatment schemes are most effective in reducing vector populations when high drug efficacy is maintained in cattle feces during periods of high larval density. Our approach incorporates detailed representation of the vector population and provides an explicit representation of the effects of insecticide application on adult and larval sand flies. Hence, this model predicts treatment schemes that may have the greatest potential to reduce sand fly numbers.

Sensitivity Analysis and Optimal Control of Anthroponotic Cutaneous Leishmania

This paper is focused on the transmission dynamics and optimal control of Anthroponotic Cutaneous Leishmania. The threshold condition R0 for initial transmission of infection is obtained by next generation method. Biological sense of the threshold condition is investigated and discussed in detail. The sensitivity analysis of the reproduction number is presented and the most sensitive parameters are high lighted. On the basis of sensitivity analysis, some control strategies are introduced in the model. These strategies positively reduce the effect of the parameters with high sensitivity indices, on the initial transmission. Finally, an optimal control strategy is presented by taking into account the cost associated with control strategies. It is also shown that an optimal control exists for the proposed control problem. The goal of optimal control problem is to minimize, the cost associated with control strategies and the chances of infectious humans, exposed humans and vector population to become infected. Numerical simulations are carried out with the help of Runge-Kutta fourth order procedure.

Decentralized control of human visceral leishmaniasis in endemic urban areas of Brazil: a literature review

OBJECTIVES

Human migration and concomitant HIV infections are likely to bring about major changes in the epidemiology of some parasitic infections in Brazil. Human visceral leishmaniasis (HVL) control is particularly fraught with intricacies. It is against a backdrop of decentralized health care that the complex HVL control initiatives are brought to bear. This comprehensive review aims to explore the obstacles facing decentralized HVL control in urban endemic areas in Brazil.

METHOD

A literature search was carried out in December 2015 by means of three databases: MEDLINE, Google Scholar, and Web of Science.

RESULTS

Although there have been many strides that have been made in elucidating the eco-epidemiology of Leishmania infantum, which forms the underpinnings of the national control program, transmission risk factors for HVL are still insufficiently elucidated in urban settings. Decentralized HVL epidemiological surveillance and control for animal reservoirs and vectors may compromise sustainability. In addition, it may hamper timely human HVL case management. With the burgeoning of the HIV-HVL co-infection, the potential human transmission may be underestimated.

CONCLUSION

HVL is a disease with focal transmission at a critical juncture, which warrants that the bottlenecks facing the control program within contexts of decentralized healthcare systems be taken into account. In addition, HIV-driven HVL epidemics may substantially increase the transmission potential of the human reservoir. Calculating the basic reproductive number to fine-tune interventions will have to take into consideration the specific socio-economic development context.

Zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis transmission: modeling, backward bifurcation, and optimal control

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL), a vector-borne disease caused by protozoan flagellates of the genus Leishmania, is transmitted by sand flies. After malaria, VL is the second-largest parasitic killer, responsible for an estimated 500,000 infections and 51,000 deaths annually worldwide. Mathematical models proposed for VL have included the impact of dogs versus wild canids in disease dissemination and models developed to assist in control approaches. However, quantitative conditions that are required to control or eradicate VL transmission are not provided and there are no mathematical methods proposed to quantitatively calculate optimal control strategies for VL transmission. The research objective of this work was to model VL disease transmission system (specifically Zoonotic VL), perform bifurcation analysis to discuss control conditions, and calculate optimal control strategies. Three time-dependent control strategies involving dog populations, sand fly population, and humans are mainly discussed. Another strategy sometimes used in attempts to control zoonotic VL transmission, dog culling, is also evaluated in this paper.

Sensitivity Analysis and Optimal Control of Anthroponotic Cutaneous Leishmania

This paper is focused on the transmission dynamics and optimal control of Anthroponotic Cutaneous Leishmania. The threshold condition R0 for initial transmission of infection is obtained by next generation method. Biological sense of the threshold condition is investigated and discussed in detail. The sensitivity analysis of the reproduction number is presented and the most sensitive parameters are high lighted. On the basis of sensitivity analysis, some control strategies are introduced in the model. These strategies positively reduce the effect of the parameters with high sensitivity indices, on the initial transmission. Finally, an optimal control strategy is presented by taking into account the cost associated with control strategies. It is also shown that an optimal control exists for the proposed control problem. The goal of optimal control problem is to minimize, the cost associated with control strategies and the chances of infectious humans, exposed humans and vector population to become infected. Numerical simulations are carried out with the help of Runge-Kutta fourth order procedure.

Visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil: rationale and concerns related to reservoir control

The control of zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis is a challenge, particularly in Brazil, where the disease has been gradually spreading across the country over the past 30 years. Strategies employed for decreasing the transmission risk are based on the control of vector populations and reservoirs; since humans are considered unnecessary for the maintenance of transmission. Among the adopted strategies in Brazil, the sacrifice of infected dogs is commonly performed and has been the most controversial measure. In the present study, we provide the rationale for the implementation of different control strategies targeted at reservoir populations and highlight the limitations and concerns associated with each of these strategies.

Uniting mathematics and biology for control of visceral leishmaniasis

The neglected tropical disease (NTD) visceral leishmaniasis (VL) has been targeted by the WHO for elimination as a public health problem on the Indian subcontinent by 2017 or earlier. To date there is a surprising scarcity of mathematical models capable of capturing VL disease dynamics, which are widely considered central to planning and assessing the efficacy of interventions. The few models that have been developed are examined, highlighting the necessity for better data to parameterise and fit these and future models. In particular, the characterisation and infectiousness of the different disease stages will be crucial to elimination. Modelling can then assist in establishing whether, when, and how the WHO VL elimination targets can be met.