Combining species distribution models and big datasets may provide finer assessments of snakebite impacts

BACKGROUND

Snakebite is a major poverty-related neglected tropical disease. An integrated scientific approach is needed to understand the dynamics of this important health issue. Our objective was to estimate snakebite occurrence in a tropical area by using a blend of ecological modelling and robust statistical analysis.

METHODS

The present study used climatic, environmental, and human population density data to determine the area with snakebite occurrence-probability for the first time in Bangladesh. We also analysed a large, 16-year dataset of hospitalized snakebite cases to reveal the epidemiology of snakebite in the south-eastern zone of the country.

FINDINGS

Our results show that cobra bite is the most commonly occurring venomous snakebite in humans (around ~12% of the total yearly snakebite records), and men are more frequently bitten than women (2/3 of human victims are men). Most bites occur during the rainy season for cobra and green pit viper, while krait bites are not restricted to any particular season. As snakebite incidents are closely related to climate conditions, we can model snakebite risk using temperature and precipitation variables. Whereas there is a lack of snakebite reports from several parts of the study area in official records, our models predict that the entire study area is favourable for snakebite incidents. Based on the combined evidence we estimate that about 200,000 snakebite events occur every year in the south-eastern part of Bangladesh alone. Considering future global climate change, our model projections show that snakebite incidence in Bangladesh might not significantly decrease in the future (- 2070-); however, the distribution of probabilities might change, with a predicted increase of snakebite incidence in the hilly areas of the country.

CONCLUSIONS

Using climatic data to predict snakebite incidence in Bangladesh allowed us to provide estimations of the total annual number of snakebite cases in the study area. As in most countries, the scarcity of accurate epidemiological data in official records might have masked the real magnitude of this problem. Our analysis suggests that the problem of snakebite envenoming in Bangladesh might be worse than currently perceived. A long-term sustainable snakebite program plan should be designed and institutionalized, considering climatic, geographical and human demographic variables, to obtain better data and facilitate the implementation of accurate snakebite management programs for this country.

Knowledge in identifying venomous snakes and first aid methods of snakebites among nursing students: A cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Snakebites are a dangerous and significant medical emergency that occurs worldwide. The World Health Organization has recommended that teaching and training in the prevention and management of snakebites be included in the curriculum of nursing schools and other educational activities. Identification of venomous snakes and first aid would be more critical in the prevention of occupational danger worldwide. This study aims to assess the knowledge in identifying venomous snakes, snakebites, and first aid methods of snakebites among nursing students in the Southern Province of Sri Lanka.

METHODS

A descriptive, cross-sectional study was performed among 425 nursing students who were studying in different educational settings: undergraduates at the University of Ruhuna, and nursing students in the three schools of nursing in Galle, Matara, and Hambantota. Data were gathered by incorporating a pre-tested self-administered questionnaire after obtaining institutional permission. The total score of whole knowledge ranged from 0 to 34 for the identification of venomous snakes. Data collection was performed after obtaining ethical clearance from the Ethics Review Committee, Faculty of Allied Health Sciences, University of Ruhuna, Sri Lanka.

RESULTS

Most of the students (82.6%) were in the 24-26 age category and the majority were females. Most of the sample (64.7%) had low knowledge of identifying venomous snakes. A higher percentage of students (57.4%) had a sufficient level of knowledge about first aid methods associated with snakebites and 169 participants (39.8%) had a high level of knowledge regarding first aid methods. Further, a significant impact on students' knowledge and knowledge of first aid methods was reported.

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION

The overall knowledge of identifying venomous snakes among the nursing students was inadequate. However, the knowledge about the first aid methods was at a moderate level. Strategies are needed to improve knowledge in identifying venomous snakes and first aid methods of snakebites amongst nursing students in both educational settings.

Climate change-related distributional range shifts of venomous snakes: a predictive modelling study of effects on public health and biodiversity

BACKGROUND

Climate change is expected to have profound effects on the distribution of venomous snake species, including reductions in biodiversity and changes in patterns of envenomation of humans and domestic animals. We estimated the effect of future climate change on the distribution of venomous snake species and potential knock-on effects on biodiversity and public health.

METHODS

We built species distribution models based on the geographical distribution of 209 medically relevant venomous snake species (WHO categories 1 and 2) and present climatic variables, and used these models to project the potential distribution of species in 2070. We incorporated different future climatic scenarios into the model, which we used to estimate the loss and gain of areas potentially suitable for each species. We also assessed which countries were likely to gain new species in the future as a result of species crossing national borders. We integrated the species distribution models with different socioeconomic scenarios to estimate which countries would become more vulnerable to snakebites in 2070.

FINDINGS

Our results suggest that substantial losses of potentially suitable areas for the survival of most venomous snake species will occur by 2070. However, some species of high risk to public health could gain climatically suitable areas for habitation. Countries such as Niger, Namibia, China, Nepal, and Myanmar could potentially gain several venomous snake species from neighbouring countries. Furthermore, the combination of an increase in climatically suitable areas and socioeconomic factors (including low-income and high rural populations) means that southeast Asia and Africa (and countries including Uganda, Kenya, Bangladesh, India, and Thailand in particular) could have increased vulnerability to snakebites in the future, with potential effects on public human and veterinary health.

INTERPRETATION

Loss of venomous snake biodiversity in low-income countries will affect ecosystem functioning and result in the loss of valuable genetic resources. Additionally, climate change will create new challenges to public health in several low-income countries, particularly in southeast Asia and Africa. The international community needs to increase its efforts to counter the effects of climate change in the coming decades.

FUNDING

German Research Foundation, Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico, Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior, German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research, Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación de España, European Regional Development Fund.

Broadening the research landscape in the field of snakebite envenoming: Towards a holistic perspective

Snakebite envenoming (SBE) is a neglected tropical disease that kills and maims hundreds of thousands of people yearly, particularly in impoverished rural settings of the Global South. Understanding the complexity of SBE and tackling this disease demands a transdisciplinary, One Health approach. There is a long-standing research tradition on SBE in toxinology and human medicine. In contrast, other disciplines, such as veterinary medicine or social sciences, still need to be better developed in this field, especially in countries with a high incidence of SBE. Broadening the disciplinary landscape, connecting various research approaches, methods, and data across disciplines and sectors, and engaging with communities affected by SBE in implementing evidence-based solutions are needed. This review summarizes areas that require strengthening to better understand the complexity of SBE and to generate a robust body of knowledge to be translated into effective public health interventions.

Climate change maladaptation for health: Agricultural practice against shifting seasonal rainfall affects snakebite risk for farmers in the tropics

Snakebite affects more than 1.8 million people annually. Factors explaining snakebite variability include farmers' behaviors, snake ecology and climate. One unstudied issue is how farmers' adaptation to novel climates affect their health. Here we examined potential impacts of adaptation on snakebite using individual-based simulations, focusing on strategies meant to counteract major crop yield decline because of changing rainfall in Sri Lanka. For rubber cropping, adaptation led to a 33% increase in snakebite incidence per farmer work hour because of work during risky months, but a 17% decrease in total annual snakebites because of decreased labor in plantations overall. Rice farming adaptation decreased snakebites by 16%, because of shifting labor towards safer months, whereas tea adaptation led to a general increase. These results indicate that adaptation could have both a positive and negative effect, potentially intensified by ENSO. Our research highlights the need for assessing adaptation strategies for potential health maladaptations.

Current situation of snakebites envenomation in the Neotropics: Biotechnology, a versatile tool in the production of antivenoms

Snakebite envenomation is a neglected tropical disease that affects millions of people around the world with a great impact on health and the economy. Unfortunately, public health programs do not include this kind of disease as a priority in their social programs. Cases of snakebite envenomations in the Neotropics are inaccurate due to inadequate disease management from medical records to the choice of treatments. Victims of snakebite envenomation are primarily found in impoverished agricultural areas where remote conditions limit the availability of antivenom. Antivenom serum is the only Food and Drug Administration-approved treatment used up to date. However, it has several disadvantages in terms of safety and effectiveness. This review provides a comprehensive insight dealing with the current epidemiological status of snakebites in the Neotropics and technologies employed in antivenom production. Also, modern biotechnological tools such as transcriptomic, proteomic, immunogenic, high-density peptide microarray and epitope mapping are highlighted for producing new-generation antivenom sera. These results allow us to propose strategic solutions in the Public Health Sector for managing this disease. Keywords: antivenom, biotechnology, neglected tropical disease, omics, recombinant antibody.

Favourable climatic niche in low elevations outside the flood zone characterises the distribution pattern of venomous snakes in Bangladesh

Snakes are sensitive to both environmental and climate gradients. To design conservation plans, a scientific understanding of snake habitats in light of environmental and climatic variables is an essential prerequisite. For venomous snakes, denoting favourable habitats should also be relevant for snakebite management. We have considered 18 spatial variables to portray the range of terrestrial venomous snake distribution in Bangladesh. Our results indicate that the distribution of 29 studied venomous snakes in this country is primarily driven by climatic and environmental variables. We found that especially low elevation and flood risk constrain the distribution of those terrestrial snakes, i.e. regular floods in central Bangladesh push venomous snakes towards the edges of the country. Moreover, none of these species occupies the whole of its anticipated climatically favourable area. Projections into the future indicated that 11 studied species, Amphiesma platyceps, Boiga siamensis, Chrysopelea ornata, Pseudoxenodon macrops, Rhabdophis himalayanus, Rhabdophis subminiatus, Bungarus lividus, Ophiophagus hannah, Daboia russelii, Ovophis monticola and Trimeresurus popeiorum will lose their entire climatically suitable area within the country. Therefore, we suggest establishing more protected areas in the hilly ecosystems in the eastern part and in the mangrove forests in the south-western corner of Bangladesh to mitigate future extinction risks, such as climate change, sea-level rise and increase in flood severity. Conserving village forests and croplands, which are subject to rapid change, will also need to be addressed equally, as these are inhabited by almost one-third of the studied species. The occurrence of the cobras and kraits in village forests and cropland dominant habitats demands more attention to minimise snakebite related mortality and morbidity.

Flood vulnerability of a few areas in the foothills of the Western Ghats: a comparison of AHP and F-AHP models

Flooding is one of the most destructive natural catastrophes that can strike anywhere in the world. With the recent, but frequent catastrophic flood events that occurred in the narrow stretch of land in southern India, sandwiched between the Western Ghats and the Arabian Sea, this study was initiated. The goal of this research is to identify flood-vulnerable zones in this area by making the local self governing bodies as the mapping unit. This study also assessed the predictive accuracy of analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy-analytical hierarchy process (F-AHP) models. A total of 20 indicators (nine physical-environmental variables and 11 socio-economic variables) have been considered for the vulnerability modelling. Flood-vulnerability maps, created using remotely sensed satellite data and geographic information systems, was divided into five zones. AHP and F-AHP flood vulnerability models identified 12.29% and 11.81% of the area as very high-vulnerable zones, respectively. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is used to validate these flood vulnerability maps. The flood vulnerable maps, created using the AHP and F-AHP methods, were found to be outstanding based on the area under the ROC curve (AUC) values. This demonstrates the effectiveness of these two models. The results of AUC for the AHP and F-AHP models were 0.946 and 0.943, respectively, articulating that the AHP model is more efficient than its chosen counterpart in demarcating the flood vulnerable zones. Decision-makers and land-use planners will find the generated vulnerable zone maps useful, particularly in implementing flood mitigation plans.

Access to antivenoms in the developing world: A multidisciplinary analysis

Access to safe, effective, quality-assured antivenom products that are tailored to endemic venomous snake species is a crucial component of recent coordinated efforts to reduce the global burden of snakebite envenoming. Multiple access barriers may affect the journey of antivenoms from manufacturers to the bedsides of patients. Our review describes the antivenom ecosystem at different levels and identifies solutions to overcome these challenges. At the global level, there is insufficient manufacturing output to meet clinical needs, notably for antivenoms intended for use in regions with a scarcity of producers. At national level, variable funding and deficient regulation of certain antivenom markets can lead to the procurement of substandard antivenom. This is particularly true when producers fail to seek registration of their products in the countries where they should be used, or where weak assessment frameworks allow registration without local clinical evaluation. Out-of-pocket expenses by snakebite victims are often the main source of financing antivenoms, which results in the underuse or under-dosing of antivenoms, and a preference for low-cost products regardless of efficacy. In resource-constrained rural areas, where the majority of victims are bitten, supply of antivenom in peripheral health facilities is often unreliable. Misconceptions about treatment of snakebite envenoming are common, further reducing demand for antivenom and exacerbating delays in reaching facilities equipped for antivenom use. Multifaceted interventions are needed to improve antivenom access in resource-limited settings. Particular attention should be paid to the comprehensive list of actions proposed within the WHO Strategy for Prevention and Control of Snakebite Envenoming.

Addressing the global snakebite crisis with geo-spatial analyses - Recent advances and future direction

Venomous snakebite is a neglected tropical disease that annually leads to hundreds of thousands of deaths or long-term physical and mental ailments across the developing world. Insufficient data on spatial variation in snakebite risk, incidence, human vulnerability, and accessibility of medical treatment contribute substantially to ineffective on-ground management. There is an urgent need to collect data, fill knowledge gaps and address on-ground management problems. The use of novel, and transdisciplinary approaches that take advantage of recent advances in spatio-temporal models, 'big data', high performance computing, and fine-scale spatial information can add value to snakebite management by strategically improving our understanding and mitigation capacity of snakebite. We review the background and recent advances on the topic of snakebite related geospatial analyses and suggest avenues for priority research that will have practical on-ground applications for snakebite management and mitigation. These include streamlined, targeted data collection on snake distributions, snakebites, envenomings, venom composition, health infrastructure, and antivenom accessibility along with fine-scale models of spatio-temporal variation in snakebite risk and incidence, intraspecific venom variation, and environmental change modifying human exposure. These measures could improve and 'future-proof' antivenom production methods, antivenom distribution and stockpiling systems, and human-wildlife conflict management practices, while simultaneously feeding into research on venom evolution, snake taxonomy, ecology, biogeography, and conservation.

What is the impact of snakebite envenoming on domestic animals? A nation-wide community-based study in Nepal and Cameroon

Snakebite envenoming is a life-threatening disease in humans and animals and a major public health issue in rural communities of South-East Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Yet the impact of snakebite on domestic animals has been poorly studied. This study aimed to describe the context, clinical features, treatment, and outcomes of snakebite envenoming in domestic animals in Nepal and Cameroon. Primary data on snakebite in animals were recorded from a community-based nation-wide survey on human and animal snakebite in Nepal and Cameroon (Snake-byte project). Mobile teams collected data on snakebite in humans and animals in 13,879 and 10,798 households in Nepal and Cameroon respectively from December 2018 to June 2019. This study included 405 snakebite cases (73 in Nepal and 332 in Cameroon) in multiple types of animals. An interview with a structured questionnaire collected specific information about the animal victims. Snake bites in animals took place predominantly inside and around the house or farm in Nepal (92%) and Cameroon (71%). Other frequent locations in Cameroon were field or pasture (12%). A large diversity of clinical features was reported in all types of envenomed animals. They showed either a few clinical signs (e.g., local swelling, bleeding) or a combination of multiple clinical signs. Only 9% of animal victims, mainly cattle and buffaloes and less frequently goats, sheep, and dogs, received treatment, predominantly with traditional medicine. The overall mortality of snakebite was 85% in Nepal and 87% in Cameroon. Results from this nationwide study show an important impact of snakebite on animal health in Nepal and Cameroon. There is a need for cost-effective prevention control strategies and affordable snakebite therapies in the veterinary field to save animal lives and farmer livelihood in the poorest countries of the world. The WHO global strategy to prevent and control snakebite envenoming supports a One Health approach, which may help develop integrated solutions to the snakebite problem taking into account human and animal health.

Implications of global environmental change for the burden of snakebite

Snakebite envenoming is a set of intoxication diseases that disproportionately affect people of poor socioeconomic backgrounds in tropical countries. As it is highly dependent on the environment its burden is expected to shift spatially with global anthropogenic environmental (climate, land use) and demographic change. The mechanisms underlying the changes to snakebite epidemiology are related to factors of snakes and humans. The distribution and abundance of snakes are expected to change with global warming via their thermal tolerance, while rainfall may affect the timing of key activities like feeding and reproduction. Human population growth is the primary cause of land-use change, which may impact snakes at smaller spatial scales than climate via habitat and biodiversity loss (e.g. prey availability). Human populations, on the other hand, could experience novel patterns and morbidity of snakebite envenoming, both as a result of snake responses to environmental change and due to the development of agricultural adaptations to climate change, socioeconomic and cultural changes, development and availability of better antivenoms, personal protective equipment, and mechanization of agriculture that mediate risk of encounters with snakes and their outcomes. The likely global effects of environmental and demographic change are thus context-dependent and could encompass both increasing and or snakebite burden (incidence, number of cases or morbidity), exposing new populations to snakes in temperate areas due to “tropicalization”, or by land use change-induced snake biodiversity loss, respectively. Tackling global change requires drastic measures to ensure large-scale ecosystem functionality. However, as ecosystems represent the main source of venomous snakes their conservation should be accompanied by comprehensive public health campaigns. The challenges associated with the joint efforts of biodiversity conservation and public health professionals should be considered in the global sustainability agenda in a wider context that applies to neglected tropical and zoonotic and emerging diseases.

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Distribution and abundance of snakes are expected to be affected by climate change.

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Land-use change may also impact snakes but at smaller spatial scales than climate.

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Human populations could experience novel patterns and morbidity of snakebite.

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Reducing snakebite should be accompanied by actions that protect snake diversity.

Novel transdisciplinary methodology for cross-sectional analysis of snakebite epidemiology at national scale

BACKGROUND

Worldwide, it is estimated that snakes bite 4.5-5.4 million people annually, 2.7 million of which are envenomed, and 81,000-138,000 die. The World Health Organization reported these estimates and recognized the scarcity of large-scale, community-based, epidemiological data. In this context, we developed the "Snake-Byte" project that aims at (i) quantifying and mapping the impact of snakebite on human and animal health, and on livelihoods, (ii) developing predictive models for medical, ecological and economic indicators, and (iii) analyzing geographic accessibility to healthcare. This paper exclusively describes the methodology we developed to collect large-scale primary data on snakebite in humans and animals in two hyper-endemic countries, Cameroon and Nepal.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

We compared available methods on snakebite epidemiology and on multi-cluster survey development. Then, in line with those findings, we developed an original study methodology based on a multi-cluster random survey, enhanced by geospatial, One Health, and health economics components. Using a minimum hypothesized snakebite national incidence of 100/100,000/year and optimizing design effect, confidence level, and non-response margin, we calculated a sample of 61,000 people per country. This represented 11,700 households in Cameroon and 13,800 in Nepal. The random selection with probability proportional to size generated 250 clusters from all Cameroonian regions and all Nepalese Terai districts. Our household selection methodology combined spatial randomization and selection via high-resolution satellite images. After ethical approval in Switerland (CCER), Nepal (BPKIHS), and Cameroon (CNERSH), and informed written consent, our e-questionnaires included geolocated baseline demographic and socio-economic characteristics, snakebite clinical features and outcomes, healthcare expenditure, animal ownership, animal outcomes, snake identification, and service accessibility.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

This novel transdisciplinary survey methodology was subsequently used to collect countrywide snakebite envenoming data in Nepal and Cameroon. District-level incidence data should help health authorities to channel antivenom and healthcare allocation. This methodology, or parts thereof, could be easily adapted to other countries and to other Neglected Tropical Diseases.