Lessons Learned from Deescalation Trials in Favorable Risk HPV-Associated Squamous Cell Head and Neck Cancer–A Perspective on Future Trial Designs

Role of Mesenchymal Stem/Stromal Cells in Head and Neck Cancer-Regulatory Mechanisms of Tumorigenic and Immune Activity, Chemotherapy Resistance, and Therapeutic Benefits of Stromal Cell-Based Pharmacological Strategies

Head and neck cancer (HNC) entails a heterogenous neoplastic disease that arises from the mucosal epithelium of the upper respiratory system and the gastrointestinal tract. It is characterized by high morbidity and mortality, being the eighth most common cancer worldwide. It is believed that the mesenchymal/stem stromal cells (MSCs) present in the tumour milieu play a key role in the modulation of tumour initiation, development and patient outcomes; they also influence the resistance to cisplatin-based chemotherapy, the gold standard for advanced HNC. MSCs are multipotent, heterogeneous and mobile cells. Although no MSC-specific markers exist, they can be recognized based on several others, such as CD73, CD90 and CD105, while lacking the presence of CD45, CD34, CD14 or CD11b, CD79α, or CD19 and HLA-DR antigens; they share phenotypic similarity with stromal cells and their capacity to differentiate into other cell types. In the tumour niche, MSC populations are characterized by cell quiescence, self-renewal capacity, low reactive oxygen species production and the acquisition of epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition properties. They may play a key role in the process of acquiring drug resistance and thus in treatment failure. The present narrative review examines the links between MSCs and HNC, as well as the different mechanisms involved in the development of resistance to current chemo-radiotherapies in HNC. It also examines the possibilities of pharmacological targeting of stemness-related chemoresistance in HNSCC. It describes promising new strategies to optimize chemoradiotherapy, with the potential to personalize patient treatment approaches, and highlights future therapeutic perspectives in HNC.

Role of Vitamin D in Head and Neck Cancer-Immune Function, Anti-Tumour Effect, and Its Impact on Patient Prognosis

Head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) describes a heterogeneous group of human neoplasms of the head and neck with high rates of morbidity and mortality, constituting about 3% of all cancers and ~1.5% of all cancer deaths. HNSCC constituted the seventh most prevalent human malignancy and the most common human cancer in the world in 2020, according to multi-population observations conducted by the GLOBOCAN group. Since approximately 60-70% of patients present with stage III/IV neoplastic disease, HNSCC is still one of the leading causes of death in cancer patients worldwide, with an overall survival rate that is too low, not exceeding 40-60% of these patients. Despite the application of newer surgical techniques and the implementation of modern combined oncological treatment, the disease often follows a fatal course due to frequent nodal metastases and local neoplastic recurrences. The role of micronutrients in the initiation, development, and progression of HNSCC has been the subject of considerable research. Of particular interest has been vitamin D, the pleiotropic biologically active fat-soluble family of secosteroids (vitamin-D-like steroids), which constitutes a key regulator of bone, calcium, and phosphate homeostasis, as well as carcinogenesis and the further development of various neoplasms. Considerable evidence suggests that vitamin D plays a key role in cellular proliferation, angiogenesis, immunity, and cellular metabolism. A number of basic science, clinical, and epidemiological studies indicate that vitamin D has multidirectional biological effects and influences anti-cancer intracellular mechanisms and cancer risk, and that vitamin D dietary supplements have various prophylactic benefits. In the 20th century, it was reported that vitamin D may play various roles in the protection and regulation of normal cellular phenotypes and in cancer prevention and adjunctive therapy in various human neoplasms, including HNSCC, by regulating a number of intracellular mechanisms, including control of tumour cell expansion and differentiation, apoptosis, intercellular interactions, angio- and lymphogenesis, immune function, and tumour invasion. These regulatory properties mainly occur indirectly via epigenetic and transcriptional changes regulating the function of transcription factors, chromatin modifiers, non-coding RNA (ncRNAs), and microRNAs (miRs) through protein-protein interactions and signalling pathways. In this way, calcitriol enhances intercellular communication in cancer biology, restores the connection with the extracellular matrix, and promotes the epithelial phenotype; it thus counteracts the tumour-associated detachment from the extracellular matrix and inhibits the formation of metastases. Furthermore, the confirmation that the vitamin D receptor (VDR) is present in many human tissues confirmed the physiopathological significance of vitamin D in various human tumours. Recent studies indicate quantitative associations between exposure to vitamin D and the incidence of HNC, i.e., cancer risk assessment included circulating calcidiol plasma/serum concentrations, vitamin D intake, the presence of the VDR gene polymorphism, and genes involved in the vitamin D metabolism pathway. Moreover, the chemopreventive efficacy of vitamin D in precancerous lesions of the head and neck and their role as predictors of mortality, survival, and recurrence of head and neck cancer are also widely discussed. As such, it may be considered a promising potential anti-cancer agent for developing innovative methods of targeted therapy. The proposed review discusses in detail the mechanisms regulating the relationship between vitamin D and HNSCC. It also provides an overview of the current literature, including key opinion-forming systematic reviews as well as epidemiological, prospective, longitudinal, cross-sectional, and interventional studies based on in vitro and animal models of HNSCC, all of which are accessible via the PubMed/Medline/EMBASE/Cochrane Library databases. This article presents the data in line with increasing clinical credibility.

GA-OH enhances the cytotoxicity of photon and proton radiation in HPV+ HNSCC cells

Introduction

Treatment-related toxicity following either chemo- or radiotherapy can create significant clinical challenges for HNSCC cancer patients, particularly those with HPV-associated oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma. Identifying and characterizing targeted therapy agents that enhance the efficacy of radiation is a reasonable approach for developing de-escalated radiation regimens that result in less radiation-induced sequelae. We evaluated the ability of our recently discovered, novel HPV E6 inhibitor (GA-OH) to radio-sensitize HPV+ and HPV- HNSCC cell lines to photon and proton radiation.

Methods

Radiosensitivity to either photon or proton beams was assessed using various assays such as colony formation assay, DNA damage markers, cell cycle and apoptosis, western blotting, and primary cells. Calculations for radiosensitivity indices and relative biological effectiveness (RBE) were based on the linear quadratic model.

Results

Our results showed that radiation derived from both X-ray photons and protons is effective in inhibiting colony formation in HNSCC cells, and that GA-OH potentiated radiosensitivity of the cells. This effect was stronger in HPV+ cells as compared to their HPV- counterparts. We also found that GA-OH was more effective than cetuximab but less effective than cisplatin (CDDP) in enhancing radiosensitivity of HSNCC cells. Further tests indicated that the effects of GA-OH on the response to radiation may be mediated through cell cycle arrest, particularly in HPV+ cell lines. Importantly, the results also showed that GA-OH increases the apoptotic induction of radiation as measured by several apoptotic markers, even though radiation alone had little effect on apoptosis.

Conclusion

The enhanced combinatorial cytotoxicity found in this study indicates the strong potential of E6 inhibition as a strategy to sensitize cells to radiation. Future research is warranted to further characterize the interaction of GA-OH derivatives and other E6-specific inhibitors with radiation, as well as its potential to improve the safety and effectiveness of radiation treatment for patients with oropharyngeal cancer.

Validation of Predictive Analyses for Interim Decisions in Clinical Trials

PURPOSE

Adaptive clinical trials use algorithms to predict, during the study, patient outcomes and final study results. These predictions trigger interim decisions, such as early discontinuation of the trial, and can change the course of the study. Poor selection of the Prediction Analyses and Interim Decisions (PAID) plan in an adaptive clinical trial can have negative consequences, including the risk of exposing patients to ineffective or toxic treatments.

METHODS

We present an approach that leverages data sets from completed trials to evaluate and compare candidate PAIDs using interpretable validation metrics. The goal is to determine whether and how to incorporate predictions into major interim decisions in a clinical trial. Candidate PAIDs can differ in several aspects, such as the prediction models used, timing of interim analyses, and potential use of external data sets. To illustrate our approach, we considered a randomized clinical trial in glioblastoma. The study design includes interim futility analyses on the basis of the predictive probability that the final analysis, at the completion of the study, will provide significant evidence of treatment effects. We examined various PAIDs with different levels of complexity to investigate if the use of biomarkers, external data, or novel algorithms improved interim decisions in the glioblastoma clinical trial.

RESULTS

Validation analyses on the basis of completed trials and electronic health records support the selection of algorithms, predictive models, and other aspects of PAIDs for use in adaptive clinical trials. By contrast, PAID evaluations on the basis of arbitrarily defined ad hoc simulation scenarios, which are not tailored to previous clinical data and experience, tend to overvalue complex prediction procedures and produce poor estimates of trial operating characteristics such as power and the number of enrolled patients.

CONCLUSION

Validation analyses on the basis of completed trials and real world data support the selection of predictive models, interim analysis rules, and other aspects of PAIDs in future clinical trials.

Concurrent Cetuximab-based bioradiotherapy versus Cisplatin-based Chemoradiotherapy in the Definitive Management of Favourable Biology Human Papillomavirus-associated Oropharyngeal Squamous Cell Carcinoma: Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Replacing cisplatin with cetuximab concurrently during radiotherapy has been one of the strategies of treatment de-escalation in human papillomavirus (HPV)-associated oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC). However, until recently, there were limited data on the efficacy and safety of such an approach. A systematic search of the literature was carried out to identify prospective randomised controlled trials comparing definitive cisplatin-based chemoradiotherapy (CT-RT) versus cetuximab-based bioradiotherapy (BRT) in HPV-positive OPSCC. Overall survival and locoregional control were primary outcomes of interest; rates of acute and late toxicities (≥grade 3) were secondary end points. Outcome data were aggregated using a random-effects model as per Cochrane methodology including risk of bias assessment and expressed as hazard ratio or risk ratio as appropriate with respective 95% confidence intervals. Data from five randomised controlled trials involving 1560 patients with HPV-positive OPSCC were aggregated in the meta-analysis. Cetuximab-based BRT was associated with a significantly increased risk of death (hazard ratio = 2.83, 95% confidence interval 1.22-6.57; P = 0.02) and locoregional relapse (hazard ratio = 2.78, 95% confidence interval 1.77-4.39; P < 0.0001) compared with cisplatin-based CT-RT. Cisplatin was associated with higher rates of acute ≥grade 3 toxicity in terms of acute kidney injury, dry mouth, febrile neutropenia, hearing impairment, nausea and vomiting, whereas dermatitis and acneiform rash were more common with cetuximab. There were no significant differences in overall rates of late ≥grade 3 toxicity (risk ratio = 0.63, 95% confidence interval = 0.36-1.10; P = 0.10). In conclusion, there is moderate-certainty evidence that cetuximab-based BRT leads to inferior efficacy outcomes compared with cisplatin-based CT-RT in the definitive curative-intent management of HPV-associated OPSCC.

The design and evaluation of hybrid controlled trials that leverage external data and randomization

Patient-level data from completed clinical studies or electronic health records can be used in the design and analysis of clinical trials. However, these external data can bias the evaluation of the experimental treatment when the statistical design does not appropriately account for potential confounders. In this work, we introduce a hybrid clinical trial design that combines the use of external control datasets and randomization to experimental and control arms, with the aim of producing efficient inference on the experimental treatment effects. Our analysis of the hybrid trial design includes scenarios where the distributions of measured and unmeasured prognostic patient characteristics differ across studies. Using simulations and datasets from clinical studies in extensive-stage small cell lung cancer and glioblastoma, we illustrate the potential advantages of hybrid trial designs compared to externally controlled trials and randomized trial designs.

Patient-level external control data from prior clinical studies or electronic health records can be used in the design and analysis of clinical trials. Here the authors report a hybrid trial design combining the use of external control data and randomization to test experimental treatments, using small cell lung cancer and glioblastoma datasets as examples.

Integration of p16/HPV DNA Status with a 24-miRNA-Defined Molecular Phenotype Improves Clinically Relevant Stratification of Head and Neck Cancer Patients

Simple Summary

Human papillomavirus (HPV)-driven head and neck squamous cell carcinomas (HNSCC), regarded as a distinct clinical entity, are characterized by a considerably favourable prognosis after radio(chemo)therapy and a not yet fully understood distinct molecular pathogenesis. We aimed to develop a miRNA-signature that identifies HPV-associated HNSCC according to their specific molecular pathogenesis, and to characterise the transcriptome compared to HPV-negative HNSCC. We performed miRNA expression profiling of n = 229 HPV characterized HNSCC specimens of patients treated by adjuvant radio(chemo) therapy. Using lasso-regression, a 24-miRNA signature predicting HPV-status was built in a multicentre cohort and validated in a single-centre cohort. Its combination with p16/HPV DNA status improved clinically relevant risk stratification, allowed the identification of an HPV-associated patient subgroup with impaired overall survival, and might be considered for future clinical decision-making. miRNA-transcriptome integration identified HPV-specific signaling pathways.

Abstract

Human papillomavirus (HPV)-driven head and neck squamous cell carcinomas (HNSCC) generally have a more favourable prognosis. We hypothesized that HPV-associated HNSCC may be identified by an miRNA-signature according to their specific molecular pathogenesis, and be characterized by a unique transcriptome compared to HPV-negative HNSCC. We performed miRNA expression profiling of two p16/HPV DNA characterized HNSCC cohorts of patients treated by adjuvant radio(chemo)therapy (multicentre DKTK-ROG n = 128, single-centre LMU-KKG n = 101). A linear model predicting HPV status built in DKTK-ROG using lasso-regression was tested in LMU-KKG. LMU-KKG tumours (n = 30) were transcriptome profiled for differential gene expression and miRNA-integration. A 24-miRNA signature predicted HPV-status with 94.53% accuracy (AUC: 0.99) in DKTK-ROG, and 86.14% (AUC: 0.86) in LMU-KKG. The prognostic values of 24-miRNA- and p16/HPV DNA status were comparable. Combining p16/HPV DNA and 24-miRNA status allowed patient sub-stratification and identification of an HPV-associated patient subgroup with impaired overall survival. HPV-positive tumours showed downregulated MAPK, Estrogen, EGFR, TGFbeta, WNT signaling activity. miRNA-mRNA integration revealed HPV-specific signaling pathway regulation, including PD−L1 expression/PD−1 checkpoint pathway in cancer in HPV-associated HNSCC. Integration of clinically established p16/HPV DNA with 24-miRNA signature status improved clinically relevant risk stratification, which might be considered for future clinical decision-making with respect to treatment de-escalation in HPV-associated HNSCC.

p63 Directs Subtype-Specific Gene Expression in HPV+ Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma

The complex heterogeneity of head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) reflects a diverse underlying etiology. This heterogeneity is also apparent within Human Papillomavirus-positive (HPV+) HNSCC subtypes, which have distinct gene expression profiles and patient outcomes. One aggressive HPV+ HNSCC subtype is characterized by elevated expression of genes involved in keratinization, a process regulated by the oncogenic transcription factor ΔNp63. Furthermore, the human TP63 gene locus is a frequent HPV integration site and HPV oncoproteins drive ΔNp63 expression, suggesting an unexplored functional link between ΔNp63 and HPV+ HNSCC. Here we show that HPV+ HNSCCs can be molecularly stratified according to ΔNp63 expression levels and derive a ΔNp63-associated gene signature profile for such tumors. We leveraged RNA-seq data from p63 knockdown cells and ChIP-seq data for p63 and histone marks from two ΔNp63^high HPV+ HNSCC cell lines to identify an epigenetically refined ΔNp63 cistrome. Our integrated analyses reveal crucial ΔNp63-bound super-enhancers likely to mediate HPV+ HNSCC subtype-specific gene expression that is anchored, in part, by the PI3K-mTOR pathway. These findings implicate ΔNp63 as a key regulator of essential oncogenic pathways in a subtype of HPV+ HNSCC that can be exploited as a biomarker for patient stratification and treatment choices.

Pharmacologic inhibition of ataxia telangiectasia and Rad3-related (ATR) in the treatment of head and neck squamous cell carcinoma

Head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) poses significant treatment challenges, with high recurrence rates for locally advanced disease despite aggressive therapy typically involving a combination of surgery, radiation therapy, and/or chemotherapy. HNSCCs commonly exhibit reduced or absent TP53 function due to genomic alterations or human papillomavirus (HPV) infection, leading to dependence on the S- and G2/M checkpoints for cell cycle regulation. Both of these checkpoints are activated by Ataxia Telangiectasia and Rad3-related (ATR), which tends to be overexpressed in HNSCC relative to adjacent normal tissues and represents a potentially promising therapeutic target, particularly in combination with other treatments. ATR is a DNA damage signaling kinase that is activated in response to replication stress and single-stranded DNA breaks, such as those induced by radiation therapy and certain chemotherapies. ATR kinase inhibitors are currently being investigated in several clinical trials as part of the management of locally advanced, recurrent, or metastatic HNSCC, along with other malignancies. In this review article, we summarize the rationale and preclinical data supporting incorporation of ATR inhibition into therapeutic regimens for HNSCC.

Targeted Therapy as a Potential De-Escalation Strategy in Locally Advanced HPV-Associated Oropharyngeal Cancer: A Literature Review

The treatment landscape of locally advanced HPV-oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) is undergoing transformation. This is because the high cures rates observed in OPSCC are paired with severe treatment-related, long-term toxicities. These significant adverse effects have led some to conclude that the current standard of care is over-treating patients, and that de-intensifying the regimens may achieve comparable survival outcomes with lower toxicities. Consequently, several de-escalation approaches involving locally advanced OPSCC are underway. These include the reduction of dosage and volume of intensive cytotoxic regimens, as well as elimination of invasive surgical procedures. Such de-intensifying treatments have the potential to achieve efficacy and concurrently alleviate morbidity. Targeted therapies, given their overall safer toxicity profiles, also make excellent candidates for de-escalation, either alone or alongside standard treatments. However, their role in these endeavors is currently limited, because few targeted therapies are currently in clinical use for head and neck cancers. Unfortunately, cetuximab, the only FDA-approved targeted therapy, has shown inferior outcomes when paired with radiation as compared to cisplatin, the standard radio-sensitizer, in recent de-escalation trials. These findings indicate the need for a better understanding of OPSCC biology in the design of rational therapeutic strategies and the development of novel, OPSCC-targeted therapies that are safe and can improve the therapeutic index of standard therapies. In this review, we summarize ongoing research on mechanism-based inhibitors in OPSCC, beginning with the salient molecular features that modulate tumorigenic processes and response, then exploring pharmacological inhibition and pre-clinical validation studies of candidate targeted agents, and finally, summarizing the progression of those candidates in the clinic.

KMDATA: a curated database of reconstructed individual patient-level data from 153 oncology clinical trials

We created a database of reconstructed patient-level data from published clinical trials that includes multiple time-to-event outcomes such as overall survival and progression-free survival. Outcomes were extracted from Kaplan–Meier (KM) curves reported in 153 oncology Phase III clinical trial publications identified through a PubMed search of clinical trials in breast, lung, prostate and colorectal cancer, published between 2014 and 2016. For each trial that met our search criteria, we curated study-level information and digitized all reported KM curves with the software Digitizelt. We then used the digitized KM survival curves to estimate (possibly censored) patient-level time-to-event outcomes. Collections of time-to-event datasets from completed trials can be used to support the choice of appropriate trial designs for future clinical studies. Patient-level data allow investigators to tailor clinical trial designs to diseases and classes of treatments. Patient-level data also allow investigators to estimate the operating characteristics (e.g. power and type I error rate) of candidate statistical designs and methods.

Database URL: https://10.6084/m9.figshare.14642247.v1

Current Status of Human Papillomavirus-Related Head and Neck Cancer: From Viral Genome to Patient Care

Human papillomavirus (HPV) infection identified as a definitive human carcinogen is increasingly being recognized for its role in carcinogenesis of human cancers. Up to 38%–80% of head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) in oropharyngeal location (OPSCC) and nearly all cervical cancers contain the HPV genome which is implicated in causing cancer through its oncoproteins E6 and E7. Given by the biologically distinct HPV-related OPSCC and a more favorable prognosis compared to HPV-negative tumors, clinical trials on de-escalation treatment strategies for these patients have been studied. It is therefore raised the questions for the patient stratification if treatment de-escalation is feasible. Moreover, understanding the crosstalk of HPV-mediated malignancy and immunity with clinical insights from the proportional response rate to immune checkpoint blockade treatments in patients with HNSCC is of importance to substantially improve the treatment efficacy. This review discusses the biology of HPV-related HNSCC as well as successful clinically findings with promising candidates in the pipeline for future directions. With the advent of various sequencing technologies, further biomolecules associated with HPV-related HNSCC progression are currently being identified to be used as potential biomarkers or targets for clinical decisions throughout the continuum of cancer care.

CD40 Agonist Targeted to Fibroblast Activation Protein α Synergizes with Radiotherapy in Murine HPV-Positive Head and Neck Tumors

PURPOSE

The incidence of human papillomavirus-associated head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HPV⁺-HNSCC) is rising worldwide and although current therapeutic modalities are efficient in the majority of patients, there is a high rate of treatment failures. Thus, novel combination approaches are urgently needed to achieve better disease control in patients with HPV⁺-HNSCC. We investigated the safety and therapeutic efficacy of a novel fibroblast activation protein (FAP)-targeted CD40 agonist (FAP-CD40) in combination with local hypofractionated radiation in a syngeneic HPV⁺-HNSCC model.

EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN

Using an established orthotopic model, we treated tumor-bearing mice with local hypofractionated radiotherapy (2 × 6 Gy) alone or in combination with a systemic administration of the FAP-CD40 antibody. Following up the mice, we evaluated the changes in the tumor microenvironment (TME) by immunofluorescence, FACS, and NanoString RNA analysis.

RESULTS

The suboptimal radiotherapy regimen chosen failed to control tumors in the treated mice. The FAP-CD40 administered in monotherapy transiently controlled tumor growth, whereas the combined therapy induced durable complete responses in more than 80% of the tumor-bearing mice. This notable efficacy relied on the radiotherapy-induced remodeling of the TME and activation of the CD8⁺ T-cell-cDC1 axis and was devoid of the systemic toxicity frequently associated with CD40-targeted therapy. Moreover, the robust immunologic memory developed effectively prevented tumor relapses, a common feature in patients with HNSCC.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study provides proof of concept, as well as mechanistic insights of the therapeutic efficacy of a bispecific FAP-CD40 combined with local radiotherapy in a FAP⁺-HNSCC model increasing overall survival and inducing long-term antitumor immunity.

Ubiquitin Carboxyl-Terminal Hydrolases and Human Malignancies: The Novel Prognostic and Therapeutic Implications for Head and Neck Cancer

Ubiquitin C-terminal hydrolases (UCHs), a subfamily of deubiquitinating enzymes (DUBs), have been found in a variety of tumor entities and play distinct roles in the pathogenesis and development of various cancers including head and neck cancer (HNC). HNC is a heterogeneous disease arising from the mucosal epithelia of the upper aerodigestive tract, including different anatomic sites, distinct histopathologic types, as well as human papillomavirus (HPV)-positive and negative subgroups. Despite advances in multi-disciplinary treatment for HNC, the long-term survival rate of patients with HNC remains low. Emerging evidence has revealed the members of UCHs are associated with the pathogenesis and clinical prognosis of HNC, which highlights the prognostic and therapeutic implications of UCHs for patients with HNC. In this review, we summarize the physiological and pathological functions of the UCHs family, which provides enlightenment of potential mechanisms of UCHs family in HNC pathogenesis and highlights the potential consideration of UCHs as attractive drug targets.

The Tumor Microenvironment and Immunotherapy of Oropharyngeal Squamous Cell Carcinoma

Oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) develops as a consequence of several mutations in the tumor suppressor pathways or after a progressive infection with high risk human papillomavirus (HPV). The dismal side effects of the current standard of care and the clear involvement of the immune system has led to a surge in clinical trials that aim to reinforce the tumor-specific immune response as a new treatment option. In this review, we have focused on the most recent literature to discuss the new findings and insights on the role of different immune cells in the context of OPSCC and its etiology. We then applied this knowledge to describe potential biomarkers and analyzed the rationale and outcomes of earlier and ongoing immunotherapy trials. Finally, we describe new developments that are still at the preclinical phase and provide an outlook on what the near future may bring, now that several new and exciting techniques to study the immune system at the single cell level are being exploited.

Deep Learning Predicts HPV Association in Oropharyngeal Squamous Cell Carcinomas and Identifies Patients with a Favorable Prognosis Using Regular H&E Stains

PURPOSE

Human papillomavirus (HPV) in oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC) is tumorigenic and has been associated with a favorable prognosis compared with OPSCC caused by tobacco, alcohol, and other carcinogens. Meanwhile, machine learning has evolved as a powerful tool to predict molecular and cellular alterations of medical images of various sources.

EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN

We generated a deep learning-based HPV prediction score (HPV-ps) on regular hematoxylin and eosin (H&E) stains and assessed its performance to predict HPV association using 273 patients from two different sites (OPSCC; Giessen, n = 163; Cologne, n = 110). Then, the prognostic relevance in a total of 594 patients (Giessen, Cologne, HNSCC TCGA) was evaluated. In addition, we investigated whether four board-certified pathologists could identify HPV association (n = 152) and compared the results to the classifier.

RESULTS

Although pathologists were able to diagnose HPV association from H&E-stained slides (AUC = 0.74, median of four observers), the interrater reliability was minimal (Light Kappa = 0.37; P = 0.129), as compared with AUC = 0.8 using the HPV-ps within two independent cohorts (n = 273). The HPV-ps identified individuals with a favorable prognosis in a total of 594 patients from three cohorts (Giessen, OPSCC, HR = 0.55, P < 0.0001; Cologne, OPSCC, HR = 0.44, P = 0.0027; TCGA, non-OPSCC head and neck, HR = 0.69, P = 0.0073). Interestingly, the HPV-ps further stratified patients when combined with p16 status (Giessen, HR = 0.06, P < 0.0001; Cologne, HR = 0.3, P = 0.046).

CONCLUSIONS

Detection of HPV association in OPSCC using deep learning with help of regular H&E stains may either be used as a single biomarker, or in combination with p16 status, to identify patients with OPSCC with a favorable prognosis, potentially outperforming combined HPV-DNA/p16 status as a biomarker for patient stratification.

[Prognostic and predictive methylation biomarkers in HNSCC : Epigenomic diagnostics for head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC)]

BACKGROUND

Prognostic and predictive biomarkers for personalized treatment management in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) are of great clinical interest.

OBJECTIVE

DNA methylation is an epigenetic process involved in gene regulation and could be a source of potential prognostic and predictive biomarkers.

METHODS

This study comprises literature research in PubMed and own studies.

RESULTS

Gene methylation, e.g. of PITX2, is a strong, human papillomavirus (HPV)-independent prognostic biomarker. SHOX2 and SEPT9 methylation in circulating cell-free DNA within blood plasma correlates with tumor stage and prognosis. Methylation of diverse immune checkpoints, e.g., PD‑1, PD-L1, and CTLA4, is also prognostic and correlates with gene expression.

CONCLUSION

DNA methylation is a source of efficient prognostic blood plasma- and tissue-based biomarkers. However, prior to clinical implementation, studies must prove that biomarker-guided treatment selection can lead to better outcomes or reduced toxicity. The applicability of DNA methylation as a predictive biomarker for targeted drug-based cancer therapy seems promising, although further validation is needed.

Estimation of historical control rate for a single arm de-escalation study - Application to the POSITIVE trial

BACKGROUND

Although randomized controlled clinical trials are optimal to evaluate the effect of an experimental therapy, single-arm trials are required whenever randomization is unethical or not feasible, such as de-escalation studies. We propose using prospectively identified historical controls to place results of single-arm, de-escalation trials into context.

METHODS

POSITIVE is a prospective, single-arm study in young women with hormone-receptor-positive early breast cancer to determine if temporarily interrupting adjuvant endocrine therapy in order to become pregnant increases the risk of a breast cancer event. After 272 women enrolled in POSITIVE, we identified a cohort of 1499 SOFT/TEXT patients potentially eligible to enroll in POSITIVE who did not interrupt endocrine therapy. Method I used the SOFT/TEXT cohort to calculate annualized hazard rates by a piecewise exponential model. Method II used the SOFT/TEXT cohort to group-match SOFT/TEXT patients to POSITIVE patients; sample sets of SOFT/TEXT patients were randomly drawn 5000 times to obtain sets having patient, disease, and treatment characteristics more balanced with POSITIVE participants.

RESULTS

Compared with SOFT/TEXT, POSITIVE participants were younger, less likely to be overweight/obese, had fewer positive nodes, and fewer received aromatase inhibitor or chemotherapy. The estimated 3-year breast cancer free interval event rates were 9.5% (95% CI: 7.9%,11.1%) for Method I and 9.4% (95% CI: 7.8%,10.9%) for Method II, compared with 5.8% initially assumed when POSITIVE was designed.

CONCLUSION

External control datasets should be identified before launching single-arm, de-escalation trials and methods applied during their conduct to provide context for interim monitoring and interpretation of the final analysis.