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Lachi A, Viscardi C, Cereda G, Carreras G, Baccini M. A compartmental model for smoking dynamics in Italy: a pipeline for inference, validation, and forecasting under hypothetical scenarios. BMC Med Res Methodol 2024; 24:148. [PMID: 39003462 PMCID: PMC11245805 DOI: 10.1186/s12874-024-02271-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/28/2023] [Accepted: 06/27/2024] [Indexed: 07/15/2024] Open
Abstract
We propose a compartmental model for investigating smoking dynamics in an Italian region (Tuscany). Calibrating the model on local data from 1993 to 2019, we estimate the probabilities of starting and quitting smoking and the probability of smoking relapse. Then, we forecast the evolution of smoking prevalence until 2043 and assess the impact on mortality in terms of attributable deaths. We introduce elements of novelty with respect to previous studies in this field, including a formal definition of the equations governing the model dynamics and a flexible modelling of smoking probabilities based on cubic regression splines. We estimate model parameters by defining a two-step procedure and quantify the sampling variability via a parametric bootstrap. We propose the implementation of cross-validation on a rolling basis and variance-based Global Sensitivity Analysis to check the robustness of the results and support our findings. Our results suggest a decrease in smoking prevalence among males and stability among females, over the next two decades. We estimate that, in 2023, 18% of deaths among males and 8% among females are due to smoking. We test the use of the model in assessing the impact on smoking prevalence and mortality of different tobacco control policies, including the tobacco-free generation ban recently introduced in New Zealand.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alessio Lachi
- Department of Statistics, Computer Science, Applications "Giuseppe Parenti" (DiSIA), University of Florence, Viale Giovanni Battista Morgagni 59/65, Florence, 50134, Italy.
- Epidemiology and Health Research Lab, Institute of Clinical Physiology of the Italian National Research Council (IFC-CNR), Via Giuseppe Moruzzi 1, Pisa, 56124, Italy.
| | - Cecilia Viscardi
- Department of Statistics, Computer Science, Applications "Giuseppe Parenti" (DiSIA), University of Florence, Viale Giovanni Battista Morgagni 59/65, Florence, 50134, Italy
- Florence Center for Data Science, University of Florence, Viale Giovanni Battista Morgagni 59, Florence, 50134, Italy
| | - Giulia Cereda
- Department of Statistics, Computer Science, Applications "Giuseppe Parenti" (DiSIA), University of Florence, Viale Giovanni Battista Morgagni 59/65, Florence, 50134, Italy
- Florence Center for Data Science, University of Florence, Viale Giovanni Battista Morgagni 59, Florence, 50134, Italy
| | - Giulia Carreras
- Oncologic Network, Prevention and Research Institute (ISPRO), Servizio Sanitario della Toscana, Via Cosimo il Vecchio 2, Florence, 50139, Italy
| | - Michela Baccini
- Department of Statistics, Computer Science, Applications "Giuseppe Parenti" (DiSIA), University of Florence, Viale Giovanni Battista Morgagni 59/65, Florence, 50134, Italy.
- Florence Center for Data Science, University of Florence, Viale Giovanni Battista Morgagni 59, Florence, 50134, Italy.
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2
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Couraud S, Ferretti G, Milleron B, Cortot A, Girard N, Gounant V, Laurent F, Leleu O, Quoix E, Revel MP, Wislez M, Westeel V, Zalcman G, Scherpereel A, Khalil A. [Recommendations of French specialists on screening for lung cancer]. Rev Mal Respir 2021; 38:310-325. [PMID: 33637394 DOI: 10.1016/j.rmr.2021.02.003] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/30/2020] [Accepted: 01/25/2021] [Indexed: 12/17/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- S Couraud
- Service de pneumologie aiguë spécialisée et cancérologie thoracique, hospices civils de Lyon, hôpital Lyon Sud, Pierre-Bénite, France; Intergroupe francophone de cancérologie thoracique, Paris, France.
| | - G Ferretti
- Intergroupe francophone de cancérologie thoracique, Paris, France; Service de radiologie diagnostique et interventionnel, CHU de Grenoble-Alpes, Grenoble, France
| | - B Milleron
- Intergroupe francophone de cancérologie thoracique, Paris, France
| | - A Cortot
- Intergroupe francophone de cancérologie thoracique, Paris, France; Service de pneumologie et oncologie thoracique, CHU de Lille, Lille, France
| | - N Girard
- Intergroupe francophone de cancérologie thoracique, Paris, France; Unité d'oncologie thoracique, institut Curie, Paris, France
| | - V Gounant
- Intergroupe francophone de cancérologie thoracique, Paris, France; Service d'oncologie thoracique, groupe hospitalier Bichat-Claude-Bernard, AP-HP, Paris, France
| | - F Laurent
- Service de radiologie, CHU de Bordeaux, Pessac, France
| | - O Leleu
- Intergroupe francophone de cancérologie thoracique, Paris, France; Service de pneumologie, centre hospitalier Abbeville, Abbeville, France
| | - E Quoix
- Intergroupe francophone de cancérologie thoracique, Paris, France; Service de pneumologie, CHRU Strasbourg, Strasbourg, France
| | - M-P Revel
- Service de radiologie, hôpital Cochin, Paris, France
| | - M Wislez
- Intergroupe francophone de cancérologie thoracique, Paris, France; Service d'oncologie thoracique, hôpital Cochin, Paris, France
| | - V Westeel
- Intergroupe francophone de cancérologie thoracique, Paris, France; Service de pneumologie et cancérologie thoracique, CHU de Besançon, Besançon, France
| | - G Zalcman
- Intergroupe francophone de cancérologie thoracique, Paris, France; Service d'oncologie thoracique, groupe hospitalier Bichat-Claude-Bernard, AP-HP, Paris, France
| | - A Scherpereel
- Intergroupe francophone de cancérologie thoracique, Paris, France; Service de pneumologie et oncologie thoracique, CHU de Lille, Lille, France
| | - A Khalil
- Intergroupe francophone de cancérologie thoracique, Paris, France; Service de radiologie, groupe hospitalier Bichat-Claude-Bernard, AP-HP, Paris, France
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Intergroupe francophone de cancérologie thoracique, Société de pneumologie de langue française, and Société d'imagerie thoracique statement paper on lung cancer screening. Diagn Interv Imaging 2021; 102:199-211. [PMID: 33648872 DOI: 10.1016/j.diii.2021.01.012] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/22/2020] [Revised: 01/21/2021] [Accepted: 01/29/2021] [Indexed: 12/17/2022]
Abstract
Following the American National Lung Screening Trial results in 2011 a consortium of French experts met to edit a statement. Recent results of other randomized trials gave the opportunity for our group to meet again in order to edit updated guidelines. After literature review, we provide here a new update on lung cancer screening in France. Notably, in accordance with all international guidelines, the experts renew their recommendation in favor of individual screening for lung cancer in France as per the conditions laid out in this document. In addition, the experts recommend the very rapid organization and funding of prospective studies, which, if conclusive, will enable the deployment of lung cancer screening organized at the national level.
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Pistelli F, Aquilini F, Falaschi F, Puliti D, Ocello C, Lopes Pegna A, Carozzi FM, Picozzi G, Zappa M, Mascalchi M, Paci E, Carrozzi L, Gorini G, Manneschi G, Visioli C, Cordopatri G, Giusti F, Esposito I, Bianchi R, Ronchi C, Cini S, De Santis M, Baliva F, Chella A, Tavanti L, Grazzini M, Innocenti F, Natali I, Bartolucci M, Crisci E, De Francisci A, Falchini M, Gabbrielli S, Roselli G, Masi A, Battolla L, De Liperi A, Spinelli C, Vannucchi L, Petruzzelli A, Gadda D, Neri AT, Niccolai F, Vaggelli L, Vella A, Maddau C, Bisanzi S, Janni A, Mussi A, Lucchi M, Comin C, Fontanini G, Tognetti AR, Iacuzio L, Caldarella A, Barchielli A, Goldoni CA. Smoking Cessation in the ITALUNG Lung Cancer Screening: What Does “Teachable Moment” Mean? Nicotine Tob Res 2019; 22:1484-1491. [DOI: 10.1093/ntr/ntz148] [Citation(s) in RCA: 25] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/24/2019] [Accepted: 08/15/2019] [Indexed: 12/17/2022]
Abstract
Abstract
Background
Changes in smoking habits and predictors of smoking cessation were examined in the randomized ITALUNG lung cancer screening trial.
Methods
In three centers, eligible smokers or ex-smokers (55–69 years, ≥20 pack-years in the last 10 years) were randomized to receive annual invitation for low-dose computed tomography for 4 years or usual care. At invitation, subjects received written information for a free smoking cessation program. Quitting outcome was assessed at year 4.
Results
Among participants who completed baseline assessments and year 4 screening, higher quitting (20.8% vs. 16.7%, p = .029) and lower relapse (6.41% vs. 7.56%, p = .50) rates were observed in the active screening group as compared to the usual-care control group. Corresponding figures in the intention-to-treat analysis were as follows: 16.04% versus 14.64% (p = .059) and 4.88% versus 6.43% (p = .26). Quitting smoking was significantly associated to male gender, lower pack-years, and having pulmonary nodules at baseline. Center-specific analyses showed a threefold statistically significant higher probability to quit associated with participating in the smoking cessation program. A subsample of smokers of the scan group from one center showed higher quitting rates over 12-month follow-up as compared to matched controls from the general population who underwent the same smoking cessation program.
Conclusions
Consistently with previous reports, in the ITALUNG trial, screened subjects showed significantly higher quit rates than controls, and higher quit rates were associated with both the presence of pulmonary nodules and participating in a smoking cessation program. Maximal effect on quitting outcome was observed with the participation in the smoking cessation program.
Implications
Participating in lung cancer screening promotes smoking cessation. An effective “teachable moment” may be achieved when the smoking cessation intervention is structured as integral part of the screening clinical visits and conducted by a dedicated team of health care professionals. Standardized guidelines for smoking cessation interventions in lung cancer screening are needed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Francesco Pistelli
- Pulmonary Unit, Cardiothoracic and Vascular Department, University Hospital of Pisa, Pisa, Italy
| | - Ferruccio Aquilini
- Pulmonary Unit, Cardiothoracic and Vascular Department, University Hospital of Pisa, Pisa, Italy
| | - Fabio Falaschi
- 2nd Radiodiagnostic Unit, Department of Diagnostic Imaging, University Hospital of Pisa, Pisa, Italy
| | - Donella Puliti
- Clinical Epidemiology Unit, Oncological Network, Prevention and Research Institute (ISPRO), Florence, Italy
| | - Cristina Ocello
- Clinical Epidemiology Unit, Oncological Network, Prevention and Research Institute (ISPRO), Florence, Italy
| | - Andrea Lopes Pegna
- Formerly Pneumonology Department, University Hospital Careggi, Florence, Italy
| | - Francesca Maria Carozzi
- Cancer Prevention Regional Laboratory, Oncological Network, Prevention and Research Institute (ISPRO), Florence, Italy
| | - Giulia Picozzi
- Clinical Breast Unit, Oncological Network, Prevention and Research Institute (ISPRO), Florence, Italy, Florence, Italy
| | - Marco Zappa
- Clinical Epidemiology Unit, Oncological Network, Prevention and Research Institute (ISPRO), Florence, Italy
| | - Mario Mascalchi
- Formerly Clinical Epidemiology Unit, Oncological Network, Prevention and Research Institute (ISPRO), Florence, Italy
| | - Eugenio Paci
- Clinical Epidemiology Unit, Oncological Network, Prevention and Research Institute (ISPRO), Florence, Italy
| | - Laura Carrozzi
- Pulmonary Unit, Cardiothoracic and Vascular Department, University Hospital of Pisa, Pisa, Italy
- Department of Surgical, Medical, and Molecular Pathology and Critical Care Medicine, University of Pisa
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Heijnsdijk EAM, Csanádi M, Gini A, Ten Haaf K, Bendes R, Anttila A, Senore C, de Koning HJ. All-cause mortality versus cancer-specific mortality as outcome in cancer screening trials: A review and modeling study. Cancer Med 2019; 8:6127-6138. [PMID: 31422585 PMCID: PMC6792501 DOI: 10.1002/cam4.2476] [Citation(s) in RCA: 21] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/21/2019] [Revised: 07/04/2019] [Accepted: 07/25/2019] [Indexed: 12/13/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND All-cause mortality has been suggested as an end-point in cancer screening trials in order to avoid biases in attributing the cause of death. The aim of this study was to investigate which sample size and follow-up is needed to find a significant reduction in all-cause mortality. METHODS A literature review was conducted to identify previous studies that modeled the effect of screening on all-cause mortality. Microsimulation modeling was used to simulate breast cancer, lung cancer, and colorectal cancer screening trials. Model outputs were: cancer-specific deaths, all-cause deaths, and life-years gained per year of follow-up. RESULTS There were large differences between the evaluated cancers. For lung cancer, when 40 000 high-risk people are randomized to each arm, a significant reduction in all-cause mortality could be expected between 11 and 13 years of follow-up. For breast cancer, a significant reduction could be found between 16 and 26 years of follow-up for a sample size of over 300 000 women in each arm. For colorectal cancer, 600 000 persons in each arm were required to be followed for 15-20 years. Our systematic literature review identified seven papers, which showed highly similar results to our estimates. CONCLUSION Cancer screening trials are able to demonstrate a significant reduction in all-cause mortality due to screening, but require very large sample sizes. Depending on the cancer, 40 000-600 000 participants per arm are needed to demonstrate a significant reduction. The reduction in all-cause mortality can only be detected between specific years of follow-up, more limited than the timeframe to detect a reduction in cancer-specific mortality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Eveline A M Heijnsdijk
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | | | - Andrea Gini
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Kevin Ten Haaf
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
| | - Rita Bendes
- Syreon Research Institute, Budapest, Hungary
| | | | - Carlo Senore
- SC Epidemiology, Screening, Cancer Registry, Città della Salute e della Scienza University Hospital, CPO, Turin, Italy
| | - Harry J de Koning
- Department of Public Health, Erasmus MC, University Medical Center Rotterdam, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
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6
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Carreras G, Gorini G. Challenges of quitting smoking and lung cancer screening. ANNALS OF TRANSLATIONAL MEDICINE 2017; 5:488. [PMID: 29299450 DOI: 10.21037/atm.2017.09.40] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/23/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Giulia Carreras
- Cancer Prevention and Research Institute (ISPO), Florence, Italy
| | - Giuseppe Gorini
- Cancer Prevention and Research Institute (ISPO), Florence, Italy
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7
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Modélisation de l’impact économique d’un dépistage organisé du cancer du poumon en France. Rev Mal Respir 2017; 34:717-728. [DOI: 10.1016/j.rmr.2015.10.004] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/09/2015] [Accepted: 10/05/2015] [Indexed: 12/27/2022]
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Feirman SP, Donaldson E, Glasser AM, Pearson JL, Niaura R, Rose SW, Abrams DB, Villanti AC. Mathematical Modeling in Tobacco Control Research: Initial Results From a Systematic Review. Nicotine Tob Res 2015; 18:229-42. [PMID: 25977409 DOI: 10.1093/ntr/ntv104] [Citation(s) in RCA: 22] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/02/2015] [Accepted: 05/05/2015] [Indexed: 12/16/2022]
Abstract
OBJECTIVES The US Food and Drug Administration has expressed interest in using mathematical models to evaluate potential tobacco policies. The goal of this systematic review was to synthesize data from tobacco control studies that employ mathematical models. METHODS We searched five electronic databases on July 1, 2013 to identify published studies that used a mathematical model to project a tobacco-related outcome and developed a data extraction form based on the ISPOR-SMDM Modeling Good Research Practices. We developed an organizational framework to categorize these studies and identify models employed across multiple papers. We synthesized results qualitatively, providing a descriptive synthesis of included studies. RESULTS The 263 studies in this review were heterogeneous with regard to their methodologies and aims. We used the organizational framework to categorize each study according to its objective and map the objective to a model outcome. We identified two types of study objectives (trend and policy/intervention) and three types of model outcomes (change in tobacco use behavior, change in tobacco-related morbidity or mortality, and economic impact). Eighteen models were used across 118 studies. CONCLUSIONS This paper extends conventional systematic review methods to characterize a body of literature on mathematical modeling in tobacco control. The findings of this synthesis can inform the development of new models and the improvement of existing models, strengthening the ability of researchers to accurately project future tobacco-related trends and evaluate potential tobacco control policies and interventions. These findings can also help decision-makers to identify and become oriented with models relevant to their work.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shari P Feirman
- The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC; Department of Health, Behavior and Society, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD
| | - Elisabeth Donaldson
- The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC; Department of Health, Behavior and Society, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD
| | - Allison M Glasser
- The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC
| | - Jennifer L Pearson
- The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC; Department of Health, Behavior and Society, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD
| | - Ray Niaura
- The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC; Department of Health, Behavior and Society, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD; Lombardi Comprehensive Cancer Center, Georgetown University Medical Center, Washington, DC
| | - Shyanika W Rose
- The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC
| | - David B Abrams
- The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC; Department of Health, Behavior and Society, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD; Lombardi Comprehensive Cancer Center, Georgetown University Medical Center, Washington, DC
| | - Andrea C Villanti
- The Schroeder Institute for Tobacco Research and Policy Studies, Legacy, Washington, DC; Department of Health, Behavior and Society, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD;
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9
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Carreras G, Gorini G, Paci E. Is 20% of a loaf enough? Cancer 2013; 119:3420. [DOI: 10.1002/cncr.28167] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 04/16/2013] [Indexed: 11/08/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Giulia Carreras
- ISPO Cancer Prevention and Research Institute; Florence Italy
| | - Giuseppe Gorini
- ISPO Cancer Prevention and Research Institute; Florence Italy
| | - Eugenio Paci
- ISPO Cancer Prevention and Research Institute; Florence Italy
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10
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Ma J, Jemal A, Smith R. Reply to lung cancer deaths averted by screening should be considered in the context of tobacco control policies. Cancer 2013; 119:3420-1. [PMID: 23775522 DOI: 10.1002/cncr.28192] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/24/2013] [Accepted: 04/25/2013] [Indexed: 11/06/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Jiemin Ma
- Surveillance Research Program, American Cancer Society, Atlanta, Georgia
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