An ecologic study of geographical variation in multiple sclerosis risk in central Sardinia, Italy

Multiple Sclerosis Heritability Estimation on Sardinian Ascertained Extended Families Using Bayesian Liability Threshold Model

Heritability studies represent an important tool to investigate the main sources of variability for complex diseases, whose etiology involves both genetics and environmental factors. In this paper, we aimed to estimate multiple sclerosis (MS) narrow-sense heritability (h2), on a liability scale, using extended families ascertained from affected probands sampled in the Sardinian province of Nuoro, Italy. We also investigated the sources of MS liability variability among shared environment effects, sex, and categorized year of birth (<1946, ≥1946). The latter can be considered a proxy for different early environmental exposures. To this aim, we implemented a Bayesian liability threshold model to obtain posterior distributions for the parameters of interest adjusting for ascertainment bias. Our analysis highlighted categorized year of birth as the main explanatory factor, explaining ~70% of MS liability variability (median value = 0.69, 95% CI: 0.64, 0.73), while h2 resulted near to 0% (median value = 0.03, 95% CI: 0.00, 0.09). By performing a year of birth-stratified analysis, we found a high h2 only in individuals born on/after 1946 (median value = 0.82, 95% CI: 0.68, 0.93), meaning that the genetic variability acquired a high explanatory role only when focusing on this subpopulation. Overall, the results obtained highlighted early environmental exposures, in the Sardinian population, as a meaningful factor involved in MS to be further investigated.

Multiple sclerosis epidemiological trends in Italy highlight the environmental risk factors

Italy is definitely a high-risk country for multiple sclerosis (MS). Over the last 50 years, several epidemiological studies, including longitudinal surveys, have disclosed that MS incidence and prevalence in Italy mainland and Islands (Sardinia and Sicily) have progressively increased, picturing a semi-parabolic curve. Based on the comprehensive scrutiny of 58 papers, we conclude that the latitude risk gradient does not fit to the Italian map of MS. The genetic heterogeneity of the Italian ethnicities, that likely forms the basis of MS predisposition, does not account for the dramatic increase of MS incidence and prevalence observed in Italy over the last half century that, rather, seems better explained by the effect of environmental factors.

[Registry-based comparison of multiple sclerosis epidemiology trend data in 1999 and 2019: the case of Yaroslavl]

OBJECTIVE

To compare the epidemiological indicators of multiple sclerosis (MS) in Yaroslavl when comparing the 1999 and 2019 registers to study the pathomorphism of the disease in this territory.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

During the work, the data of the 1999 and 2019 registers were used, including the age of the debut, the date of diagnosis, the form of the disease, clinical characteristics, the treatment received and its duration. In 1999, 257 patients living in the city of Yaroslavl (155 women and 102 men) were included in the MS registry with a reliable diagnosis of MS according to Poser's criteria with confirmation according to neuroimaging data. In 2019, 479 people living in the territory of Yaroslavl (342 women and 137 men) were included in the register with a diagnosis of MS based on the criteria of MacDonald 2005, 2010, 2017. As of 01.01.19, 970 patients (530 women and 440 men) were included in the patient register of the Yaroslavl region.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSION

Clinical and epidemiological review of Yaroslavl MS Registry data in 1999 and 2019 showed significant changes in disease pattern. The prevalence rate increased from 42.6 to 78.5 cases per 100,000 people. The morbidity rate rose from 1.58 to 3.28 cases per 100,000 people. The reasons for the increase are improvement in the diagnostic quality, new diagnostic criteria and the true growth of prevalence and morbidity. The use of disease modifying drugs (DMDs) has extended «the time to EDSS 3,0» by 4 years, «the time to EDSS 6,0» by 5-8 years.

[An analysis of the prevalence and risk factors of multiple sclerosis in the Republic of Ingushetia]

AIM

To determine epidemiological characteristics and factors related to the development of multiple sclerosis (MS) in the population of the Republic of Ingushetia in 2013-2016.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

A study was carried out in several clinical settings of the Republic of Ingushetia. A special medical form developed for the study was completed by patients. Medical examination of patients was performed as well. Statistical methods were used for data analysis.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSION

A significant variation of MS prevalence was seen. The mean prevalence rate was low - 13.2 cases of MS per 100 000 of population. It was different in ethnic groups: 13.7 per 100 000 of population in Ingush, 15.2 in Chechen and 45 in the Slavonic population. The incidence of MS was 1.76 per 100 000 population in 2015. Different risk factors of MS, including adverse ecological factors and environmental risk predictors (contact with poisons), and their greater role compared to genetic factors were identified.

Prevalence of multiple sclerosis in Sardinia: A systematic cross-sectional multi-source survey

Background:

Partial surveys in sub-regions of Sardinia have suggested a high prevalence of multiple sclerosis (MS) on the island, relative to other Mediterranean populations. We assessed the island-wide prevalence of MS and its detailed distribution in Sardinia.

Methods:

The study population consisted of 5677 MS patients, 1735 men and 3942 women, living in Sardinia. Neurologists retrospectively examined electronic and paper-based records of patients with a diagnosis of MS. The data were then linked to the administrative health information systems. Crude, age-, and sex-specific prevalence estimates of disease were calculated.

Results:

The overall age-adjusted MS prevalence was 330 per 100,000 (95% confidence interval (CI) 321–338) in individuals older than 15 years, 447 in women (95% CI 433–461), and 205 in men (95% CI 195–214). The prevalence was highest in the Ogliastra and Nuoro districts, respectively, 425 (95% CI 372–478) and 419 (95% CI 387–451), and lowest in the Olbia-Tempio district, 217 (95% CI 195–239). Most cases had relapsing–remitting MS (79.3%), 16.3% had secondary-progressive MS, and 4.4% had primary-progressive MS.

Conclusion:

These prevalence are among the highest reported so far worldwide. They provide estimates for comparative analyses in other populations and are essential for public health interventions.

Epidemiology of Multiple Sclerosis

The epidemiology of multiple sclerosis (MS) includes a consideration of genetic and environmental factors. Comparative studies of different populations have revealed prevalence and incidence rates that vary with geography and ethnicity. With a prevalence ranging from 2 per 100,000 in Japan to greater than 100 per 100,000 in Northern Europe and North America, the burden of MS is similarly unevenly influenced by longevity and comorbid disorders. Well-powered genome-wide association studies have investigated the genetic substrate of MS, providing insight into autoimmune mechanisms involved in the etiopathogenesis of MS and elucidating possible avenues of biological treatment.

Virus-Induced Demyelination: The Case for Virus(es) in Multiple Sclerosis

Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is the most common demyelinating disease of man with over 400,000 cases in the United States and over 2.5 million cases worldwide. There are over 64,000 citations in Pubmed dating back as far as 1887. Much has been learned over the past 129 years with a recent burst in therapeutic options (mostly anti-inflammatory) with newer medications in development that are neuroprotective and/or neuroreparative. However, with all these advancements the cause of MS remains elusive. There is a clear interplay of genetic, immunologic, and environmental factors that influences both the development and progression of this disorder. This chapter will give a brief overview of the history and pathogenesis of MS with attention to how host immune responses in genetically susceptible individuals contribute to the MS disease process. In addition, we will explore the role of infectious agents in MS as potential “triggers” of disease. Models of virus-induced demyelination will be discussed, with an emphasis on the recent interest in human herpesviruses and the role they may play in MS disease pathogenesis. Although we remain circumspect as to the role of any microbial pathogen in MS, we suggest that only through well-controlled serological, cellular immune, molecular, and animal studies we will be able to identify candidate agents. Ultimately, clinical interventional trials that either target a specific pathogen or class of pathogens will be required to make definitive links between the suspected agent and MS.

Infections and multiple sclerosis

Multiple sclerosis is a chronic inflammatory condition of unknown cause. Increasing evidence suggests that the disease develops as a result of interactions between the environment and the immune system in genetically susceptible individuals. It has long been recognized that infections may serve as environmental triggers for the disease, and a large number of pathogens have been proposed to be associated with multiple sclerosis. Here, we detail the historical basis linking infections to multiple sclerosis and review the epidemiology of the disease, which suggests a possible relationship with infectious agents. We also describe pathophysiologic studies in animals and other human demyelinating diseases that have demonstrated a variety of mechanisms by which infectious agents may induce chronic, relapsing central nervous system disease with myelin damage and relative preservation of axons, similar to multiple sclerosis. In addition, we discuss recent studies in individuals with multiple sclerosis indicating enhanced immune responses to infectious antigens, though not consistently demonstrating evidence for ongoing infection. Taken together, these studies suggest a role for infectious agents in the development of multiple sclerosis. Conclusive evidence, however, remains lacking.

Epidemiology and clinical record of multiple sclerosis in selected countries: a systematic review

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic inflammatory autoimmune disease of the central nervous system mainly affecting young adults. The aim of this paper is to review the literature concentrating the main national MS registries in selected countries of the world. We performed a systematic review to determine the MS epidemiology reported on prevalence, incidence, environmental factors, treatment, social consequences of MS and neurological disability or progression among MS-affected people. We got the information on the high-MS prevalence in Sardinia, Sweden or Sicily and on the effects of MS treatment in United States of America, Italy or Germany. We emphasized environmental factors taking into account as MS risk factors. We concluded that there were many descriptions of MS status in particular countries, but they were often insufficiently detailed and not uniform enough to compare it. The paper indicated an importance of the MS epidemiology in the light of the healthcare or quality of life of the MS patients, but further research is needed to optimize this issue.

Incidence and prevalence of multiple sclerosis in Europe: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is the most common cause of neurological disability in young adults worldwide and approximately half of those affected are in Europe. The assessment of differential incidence and prevalence across populations can reveal spatial, temporal and demographic patterns which are important for identifying genetic and environmental factors contributing to MS. However, study methodologies vary and the quality of the methods can influence the estimates. This study aimed to systematically review European studies of incidence and prevalence of MS and to provide a quantitative assessment of their methodological quality.

METHODS

A comprehensive literature search was performed to obtain all original population-based studies of MS incidence and prevalence in European populations conducted and published between January 1985 and January 2011. Only peer-reviewed full-text articles published in English or French were included. All abstracts were screened for eligibility and two trained reviewers abstracted the data and graded the quality of each study using a tool specifically designed for this study.

RESULTS

There were 123 studies that met the inclusion criteria. The study estimates were highly heterogeneous, even within regions or countries. Quality was generally higher in the more recent studies, which also tended to use current diagnostic criteria. Prevalence and incidence estimates tended to be higher in the more recent studies and were higher in the Nordic countries and in northern regions of the British Isles. With rare exceptions, prevalence and incidence estimates were higher in women with ratios as high as 3:1. Few studies examined ethnicity. Epidemiological data at the national level was uncommon and there were marked geographical disparities in available data, with large areas of Europe unrepresented and other regions well-represented in the literature. Only 37% of the studies provided standardized estimates.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the breadth of the literature on the epidemiology of MS in Europe, inter-study comparisons are hampered by the lack of standardization. Further research should focus on regions not yet studied and the evaluation of ethnic differences in MS prevalence and incidence. National-level studies using current diagnostic criteria, validated case definitions and similar age- and sex-standardization would allow better geographical comparisons.

Neighborhood determinants of 2009 pandemic A/H1N1 influenza vaccination in Montreal, Quebec, Canada

Neighborhood-level analyses of influenza vaccination can identify the characteristics of vulnerable neighborhoods, which can inform public health strategy for future pandemics. In this study, the authors analyzed rates of 2009 pandemic A/H1N1 influenza vaccination in Montreal, Quebec, Canada, using individual-level vaccination records from a vaccination registry with census, survey, and administrative data to estimate the population at risk. The neighborhood socioeconomic and demographic determinants of vaccination were identified using Bayesian ecologic logistic regression, with random effects to account for spatial autocorrelation. A total of 918,773 (49.9%) Montreal residents were vaccinated against pandemic A/H1N1 influenza from October 22, 2009, through April 8, 2010. Coverage was greatest among females, children under age 5 years, and health-care workers. Neighborhood vaccine coverage ranged from 33.6% to 71.0%. Neighborhoods with high percentages of immigrants (per 5% increase, odds ratio = 0.90, 95% credible interval: 0.86, 0.95) and material deprivation (per 1-unit increase in deprivation score, odds ratio = 0.93, 95% credible interval: 0.88, 0.98) had lower vaccine coverage. Half of the Montreal population was vaccinated; however, considerable heterogeneity in coverage was observed between neighborhoods and subgroups. In future vaccination campaigns, neighborhoods that are materially deprived or have high percentages of immigrants may benefit from focused interventions.

Epidemiology and geographical variation of myasthenia gravis in the province of Pavia, Italy

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Previous studies have reported a prevalence estimate of myasthenia gravis (MG) from 7.7 to 11.1 per 100,000 inhabitants in Europe. Moreover, the study of the geographical distribution of MG should be useful to generate specific hypotheses. The aims are to estimate MG prevalence and to investigate its geographical variation in a delimited area in Northern Italy.

METHODS

The primary source of data was the MG database of the Neurological Institute of Pavia and all other sources of case collection in and outside the province. We adopted a Bayesian approach to analyze MG geographical variation within the finest geographical grid.

RESULTS

We identified 119 live MG prevalent cases resident in the province of Pavia on December 31, 2008. The overall crude prevalence was 24 per 100,000 inhabitants. The Bayesian analysis identified a small cluster of higher MG prevalence in the northern area of the province.

CONCLUSIONS

The estimated MG prevalence sets the province of Pavia among the high-risk areas. The identification of high/low MG risk areas deserves further investigation of genetic and environmental factors possibly related to a major risk of the disease in that area.

Epidemiology of multiple sclerosis in south-western Sardinia

BACKGROUND

Sardinia is a known high-risk area for multiple sclerosis (MS), but no data for south-western Sardinia (SWS) are available. SWS has a genetically homogeneous population, apart from St Peter Island, and represents a peculiar environment related to the industrial, mineralogical and military economy.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate prevalence and incidence and to evaluate temporal trends and geographical distribution of MS in SWS.

METHODS

MS prevalence was evaluated on 31 December 2007 and crude mean annual incidence rate was defined between 2003 and 2007. Temporal trend in MS incidence was assessed using the Armitage test. To identify MS clusters, Standard Morbidity Ratio (SMR) was calculated for each village and geographical distribution prevalence by means of a Bayesian hierarchical model.

RESULTS

Total crude prevalence rate was 210.4 (95% CI 186.3-234.5): 280.3 (95% CI 241.4-319.3) for females, 138 (95% CI 110.1-165.8) for males. The crude mean annual incidence rate was 9.7/100,000 (95% CI 3.4-13.2): 4.7/100,000 (95% CI 2.4-17.0) and 14.6/100,000 (95% CI 11.8-34.8) for males and females respectively. MS incidence has increased over the last 50 years. Cluster analysis showed an SMR of 0.2 (95% CI 0.05-0.68, p = 0.002) on the island of San Pietro, and 2.0 (95% CI 1.35-2.95, p = 0.001) in Domusnovas. Spatial distribution of MS was confirmed by Bayesian geographical analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data confirm Sardinia as a high-risk area for MS and support the relevance of genetic factors in MS, as evidenced in St Peter Island. However, we found an unexpectedly high MS prevalence in one village, in particular in males, suggesting an environmental influence on MS occurrence.

Region with persistent high frequency of multiple sclerosis in Croatia and Slovenia

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to evaluate the prevalence of multiple sclerosis (MS), and to determine the clinical characteristics and the occurrence of familial MS in the Gorski kotar-Kocevje region, which was previously considered to be a region of high prevalence of MS.

METHODS

All clinically and laboratory supported definite cases of MS according to Poser's criteria, living residents of the chosen area on June 1, 1999 were included in the study. The patients were ascertained through national case registers for MS at the University Medical Centers (Rijeka and Ljubljana), registries of the national associations of MS patients, as well as from the medical records of regional outpatient clinics.

RESULTS

The crude annual prevalence per 100,000 population was 151.9 (95% CI 123.2-187.4). 28.7% of patients had a history of MS among first-, second-, or third-degree relatives. The frequency of primary progressive course of disease was 23.5%. The sex ratio (F/M) was 1.41.

CONCLUSION

A stable high prevalence of MS as well as a high number of familial MS cases was identified in the neighbouring regions of Slovenia and Croatia.

Bayesian mapping of multiple sclerosis prevalence in the province of Pavia, northern Italy

The geographical analysis of a disease risk is particularly difficult when the disease is non-frequent and the area units are small. The practical use of the Bayesian modelling, instead of the classical frequentist one, is applied to study the geographical variation of multiple sclerosis (MS) across the province of Pavia, Northern Italy. 464 MS-affected individuals resident in the province of Pavia were identified on December 31st 2000. The overall prevalence was 94 per 100,000 inhabitants. This estimate indicates an increasing MS prevalence in the province, in accordance with the vast majority of the Italian areas where prevalence studies have been repeated. We mapped the geographical variation of MS prevalence across the 190 communes of the province both with a classical approach and a Bayesian approach. The frequentist approach produced an extremely dishomogeneous map, while the Bayesian map was much smoother and more interpretable. Our study underlines the usefulness of Bayesian methods to obtain reliable maps of disease prevalence and to identify possible clusters of disease where to carry out further epidemiological investigations.

Multiple sclerosis and vitamin D: an update

MS is a chronic, immune-mediated inflammatory and neurodegenerative disease of the central nervous system (CNS), with an etiology that is not yet fully understood. The prevalence of MS is highest where environmental supplies of vitamin D are lowest. It is well recognized that the active hormonal form of vitamin D, 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D (1,25-(OH)(2)D), is a natural immunoregulator with anti-inflammatory action. The mechanism by which vitamin D nutrition is thought to influence MS involves paracrine or autocrine metabolism of 25OHD by cells expressing the enzyme 1 alpha-OHase in peripheral tissues involved in immune and neural function. Administration of the active metabolite 1,25-(OH)(2)D in mice and rats with experimental allergic encephalomyelitis (EAE, an animal model of MS) not only prevented, but also reduced disease activity. 1,25-(OH)(2)D alters dendritic cell and T-cell function and regulates macrophages in EAE. Interestingly, 1,25-(OH)(2)D is thought to be operating on CNS constituent cells as well. Vitamin D deficiency is caused by insufficient sunlight exposure or low dietary vitamin D(3) intake. Subtle defects in vitamin D metabolism, including genetic polymorphisms related to vitamin D, might possibly be involved as well. Optimal 25OHD serum concentrations, throughout the year, may be beneficial for patients with MS, both to obtain immune-mediated suppression of disease activity, and also to decrease disease-related complications, including increased bone resorption, fractures, and muscle weakness.

Risk for relatives of patients with multiple sclerosis in central Sardinia, Italy

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic, inflammatory, disabling disease of the central nervous system, known for its complex interplay between genetic and environmental factors. We used life table techniques to calculate age-adjusted recurrence risks for different categories of relatives of MS patients from Central Sardinia (Italy), a genetically homogeneous, stable population with a high degree of consanguinity. We included 313 probands and a total of 12,717 relatives in the analysis. The overall age-adjusted recurrence risk for relatives of MS probands is 1.90% [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.57-2.30]. The age-adjusted recurrence risk in parents was 1.26% (95% CI 0.60-2.63), in children 2.33% (95% CI 0.09-5.56), in sibs 4.76% (95% CI 3.57-6.32), in second-degree relatives 0.72% (95% CI 0.42-1.22), and in third-degree relatives 1.79% (95% CI 1.27-2.51). The sex of the probands (male) and of the relatives (female), and the number of affected relatives in the family significantly increase the risk of MS in relatives.