A prognostic model to predict clinical outcomes with first-line gemcitabine-based chemotherapy in advanced pancreatic cancer

Multimodal survival prediction in advanced pancreatic cancer using machine learning

Background

Existing risk scores appear insufficient to assess the individual survival risk of patients with advanced pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) and do not take advantage of the variety of parameters that are collected during clinical care.

Methods

In this retrospective study, we built a random survival forest model from clinical data of 203 patients with advanced PDAC. The parameters were assessed before initiation of systemic treatment and included age, CA19-9, C-reactive protein, metastatic status, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and total serum protein level. Separate models including imaging and molecular parameters were built for subgroups.

Results

Over the entire cohort, a model based on clinical parameters achieved a c-index of 0.71. Our approach outperformed the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system and the modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (mGPS) in the identification of high- and low-risk subgroups. Inclusion of the KRAS p.G12D mutational status could further improve the prediction, whereas radiomics data of the primary tumor only showed little benefit. In an external validation cohort of PDAC patients with liver metastases, our model achieved a c-index of 0.67 (mGPS: 0.59).

Conclusions

The combination of multimodal data and machine-learning algorithms holds potential for personalized prognostication in advanced PDAC already at diagnosis.

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We developed a machine-learning-based prediction model that outperforms the AJCC staging system and mGPS.

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Applying our model to an external validation cohort demonstrates generalizability.

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Explainable machine learning enables to understand the decision making of our model and identifies relevant parameters.

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Combining clinical, imaging and genetic data holds potential for personalized prognostication in advanced PDAC.

Prognostic models to predict survival in patients with pancreatic cancer: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) has poor survival. Current treatments offer little likelihood of cure or long-term survival. This systematic review evaluates prognostic models predicting overall survival in patients diagnosed with PDAC.

METHODS

We conducted a comprehensive search of eight electronic databases from their date of inception through to December 2019. Studies that published models predicting survival in patients with PDAC were identified.

RESULTS

3297 studies were identified; 187 full-text articles were retrieved and 54 studies of 49 unique prognostic models were included. Of these, 28 (57.1%) were conducted in patients with advanced disease, 17 (34.7%) with resectable disease, and four (8.2%) in all patients. 34 (69.4%) models were validated, and 35 (71.4%) reported model discrimination, with only five models reporting values >0.70 in both derivation and validation cohorts. Many (n = 27) had a moderate to high risk of bias and most (n = 33) were developed using retrospective data. No variables were unanimously found to be predictive of survival when included in more than one study.

CONCLUSION

Most prognostic models were developed using retrospective data and performed poorly. Future research should validate instruments performing well locally in international cohorts and investigate other potential predictors of survival.

Quantitative Imaging Biomarkers of the Whole Liver Tumor Burden Improve Survival Prediction in Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer

Simple Summary

Finding prognostic biomarkers and associated models with high accuracy in patients with pancreatic cancer remains a challenge. The aim of this study was to analyze whether the combination of quantitative imaging biomarkers based on geometric and radiomics analysis of whole liver tumor burden and established clinical parameters improves the prediction of survival in patients with metastatic pancreatic cancer. In this retrospective study a total of 75 patients with pancreatic cancer and liver metastases were analyzed. Segmentations of whole liver tumor burden from baseline contrast-enhanced CT images were used to derive different quantitative imaging biomarkers. For comparison, we chose two clinical prognostic models from the literature. We found that a combined clinical and imaging-based model has a significantly higher predictive performance to discriminate survival than the underlying clinical models alone (p < 0.003).

Abstract

Finding prognostic biomarkers with high accuracy in patients with pancreatic cancer (PC) remains a challenging problem. To improve the prediction of survival and to investigate the relevance of quantitative imaging biomarkers (QIB) we combined QIB with established clinical parameters. In this retrospective study a total of 75 patients with metastatic PC and liver metastases were analyzed. Segmentations of whole liver tumor burden (WLTB) from baseline contrast-enhanced CT images were used to derive QIBs. The benefits of QIBs in multivariable Cox models were analyzed in comparison with two clinical prognostic models from the literature. To discriminate survival, the two clinical models had concordance indices of 0.61 and 0.62 in a statistical setting. Combined clinical and imaging-based models achieved concordance indices of 0.74 and 0.70 with WLTB volume, tumor burden score (TBS), and bilobar disease being the three WLTB parameters that were kept by backward elimination. These combined clinical and imaging-based models have significantly higher predictive performance in discriminating survival than the underlying clinical models alone (p < 0.003). Radiomics and geometric WLTB analysis of patients with metastatic PC with liver metastases enhances the modeling of survival compared with models based on clinical parameters alone.

Anorexia, pain and peripheral neuropathy are associated with a decrease in quality of life in patients with advanced pancreatic cancer receiving outpatient chemotherapy - a retrospective observational study

BACKGROUND

Cancer chemotherapy usually improves clinical outcomes in patients with advanced pancreatic cancer (APC), but can also cause moderate-to-severe adverse events (AEs). We investigated the relationship between moderate-to-severe AEs and quality of life (QOL) in patients with APC who received outpatient chemotherapy.

METHODS

We recruited APC patients who received outpatient chemotherapy in Gifu University Hospital between September 2017 and December 2018. Adverse events related to chemotherapy were assessed by a pharmacist collaborating with a physician using common terminology criteria for AEs (CTCAE) ver 4.0, and QOL of patients was self-assessed by patients using the five-level EuroQol five-dimensional questionnaire (EQ-5D-5L Japanese edition 2). Associations between the EQ-5D-5L utility value and serious AEs were assessed using proportional odds logistic regression.

RESULTS

A total of 59 patients who received 475 chemotherapy cycles were included. The proportional odds logistic regression indicated that grade ≥ 2 anorexia, pain and peripheral neuropathy were significantly correlated with a decreased EQ-5D-5L utility value. Pharmaceutical intervention for these AEs significantly improved the patients' EQ-5D-5L utility value.

CONCLUSIONS

Anorexia, pain and peripheral neuropathy were significantly associated with a decrease in QOL. It is assumed that appropriate pharmaceutical intervention with particular emphasis on these AEs can improve the QOL of pancreatic cancer patients receiving outpatient chemotherapy.

Validation and application of a prognostic model for patients with advanced pancreatic cancer receiving palliative chemotherapy

Background

We previously developed a robust prognostic model (GS model) to predict the survival outcome of patients with advanced pancreatic cancer (APC) receiving palliative chemotherapy with gemcitabine plus S‐1 (GS). This study aimed to validate the application of the GS model in APC patients receiving chemotherapy other than the GS regimen.

Patients and methods

We retrospectively analyzed 727 APC patients who received first‐line palliative chemotherapy other than the GS regimen between 2010 and 2016 at four institutions in Taiwan. The patients were categorized into three prognostic groups based on the GS model for comparisons of survival outcome, best tumor response, and in‐group survival differences with monotherapy or combination therapy.

Results

The median survival times for the good, intermediate, and poor prognostic groups were 13.4, 8.4, and 4.6 months, respectively. The hazard ratios for the comparisons of intermediate and poor to good prognostic groups were 1.51 (95% confidence interval [CI]), 1.22‐1.88, P < .001) and 2.84 (95% CI, 2.34‐3.45, P < .001). The best tumor responses with either partial response or stable disease were 57.5%, 40.4%, and 17.2% of patients in the good, intermediate, and poor prognostic groups (P < .001), respectively. For patients in the good prognostic group, first‐line chemotherapy with monotherapy and combination therapy had similar median survival times (13.8 vs 12.9 months, P = .26), while combination therapy showed a better median survival time than monotherapy in patients in the intermediate and poor prognostic groups (8.5 vs 8.0 months, P = .038 and 5.7 vs 3.7 months, P = .001, respectively).

Conclusion

The results of our study supported the application of the GS model as a general prognostic tool for patients with pancreatic cancer receiving first‐line palliative chemotherapy with gemcitabine‐based regimens.

Consensus statement on mandatory measurements in pancreatic cancer trials (COMM-PACT) for systemic treatment of unresectable disease

Variations in the reporting of potentially confounding variables in studies investigating systemic treatments for unresectable pancreatic cancer pose challenges in drawing accurate comparisons between findings. In this Review, we establish the first international consensus on mandatory baseline and prognostic characteristics in future trials for the treatment of unresectable pancreatic cancer. We did a systematic literature search to find phase 3 trials investigating first-line systemic treatment for locally advanced or metastatic pancreatic cancer to identify baseline characteristics and prognostic variables. We created a structured overview showing the reporting frequencies of baseline characteristics and the prognostic relevance of identified variables. We used a modified Delphi panel of two rounds involving an international panel of 23 leading medical oncologists in the field of pancreatic cancer to develop a consensus on the various variables identified. In total, 39 randomised controlled trials that had data on 15 863 patients were included, of which 32 baseline characteristics and 26 prognostic characteristics were identified. After two consensus rounds, 23 baseline characteristics and 12 prognostic characteristics were designated as mandatory for future pancreatic cancer trials. The COnsensus statement on Mandatory Measurements in unresectable PAncreatic Cancer Trials (COMM-PACT) identifies a mandatory set of baseline and prognostic characteristics to allow adequate comparison of outcomes between pancreatic cancer studies.

Prognostic Factors for Advanced Pancreatic Cancer Treated with Gemcitabine Plus S-1: Retrospective Analysis and Development of a Prognostic Model

Gemcitabine plus S-1 (GS) is commonly used to treat advanced pancreatic cancer (APC) in Asia. Few clinical experiments have demonstrated the clinical efficacy of GS in routine clinical practice. We aimed to identify the prognostic factors and develop a prognostic model for survival prediction in patients with APC, treated with GS. Records of 111 patients with newly diagnosed APC who received first-line palliative GS chemotherapy during 2010⁻2016 in Taiwan were analyzed retrospectively. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed for the identification of prognostic factors. A prognostic model using prognosticators from the multivariate analysis was developed for survival prediction. The median overall survival (OS) for the cohort was 9.3 months (95% confidence interval [CI], 8.0⁻10.6). The prognostic model was constructed based on four independent prognosticators: performance status, tumor stage, pre-treatment albumin level, and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio. Patients were categorized by tertiles into good, intermediate, and poor prognostic groups. The median OS values for each of these groups were 21.1 (95% CI, 8.2⁻33.9), 9.2 (95% CI, 8.3⁻10.1), and 5.8 months (95% CI, 4.4⁻7.1; log-rank p < 0.001), respectively. The bootstrapped corrected C-index of this model was 0.80 (95% CI, 0.71⁻0.89). The developed model was robust and could accurately predict survival in this population, and can assist clinicians and patients in survival discrimination and the determination of appropriate medical care goals. Additional research is needed to externally validate the model's performance.

Severe Neutropenia is Associated with Better Clinical Outcomes in Patients with Advanced Pancreatic Cancer Who Receive Modified FOLFIRINOX Therapy

While modified FOLFIRINOX therapy is effective for treating advanced pancreatic cancer, it frequently causes severe neutropenia. The present study investigated the effect of severe neutropenia on clinical outcomes in advanced pancreatic cancer patients who received modified FOLFIRINOX. The study subjects were 51 patients (30 males and 21 females) with advanced pancreatic cancer who received modified FOLFIRINOX (2h bolus injection of oxaliplatin at 85 mg/m², 2 h bolus injection of L-leucovorin at 200 mg/m², 90min bolus injection of irinotecan at 150 mg/m², followed by continuous infusion of 5-fluorouracil for 46 h at 2400 mg/m² without bolus 5-fluorouracil) during the period from January 2014 to May 2018. No patients had prior history of chemotherapy. Adverse events, including neutropenia, were graded according to the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events, version 4.0. Median overall survival (OS) was the primary endpoint, while median time to treatment failure (TTF), overall response rate (ORR), and the incidence of other adverse events were secondary endpoints. Severe neutropenia (grade ≥3) occurred in 39 patients (76.4%), and Cox proportional hazard analysis identified high total bilirubin level as a significant risk factor. Median duration of OS was significantly longer in patients with severe neutropenia than in those without it (21.3 months versus 8.9 months, p = 0.020). Moreover, there was a significant correlation between OS and the grade of neutropenia (r = 0.306, p = 0.029). ORR tended to be higher, though not significantly, in patients with severe neutropenia. In contrast, the incidence rates of other adverse events were not different between the two groups. Severe neutropenia is an independent predictor of prognosis in advanced pancreatic cancer patients received modified FOLFIRINOX therapy.

Prediction of overall survival for metastatic pancreatic cancer: Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram with data from open clinical trial and real-world study

It is necessary to develop prognostic tools of metastatic pancreatic cancer (MPC) for optimizing therapeutic strategies. Thus, we tried to develop and validate a prognostic nomogram of MPC. Data from 3 clinical trials (NCT00844649, NCT01124786, and NCT00574275) and 133 Chinese MPC patients were used for analysis. The former 2 trials were taken as the training cohort while NCT00574275 was used as the validation cohort. In addition, 133 MPC patients treated in China were taken as the testing cohort. Cox regression model was used to investigate prognostic factors in the training cohort. With these factors, we established a nomogram and verified it by Harrell's concordance index (C‐index) and calibration plots. Furthermore, the nomogram was externally validated in the validation cohort and testing cohort. In the training cohort (n = 445), performance status, liver metastasis, Carbohydrate antigen 19‐9 (CA19‐9) log‐value, absolute neutrophil count (ANC), and albumin were independent prognostic factors for overall survival (OS). A nomogram was established with these factors to predict OS and survival probabilities. The nomogram showed an acceptable discrimination ability (C‐index: .683) and good calibration, and was further externally validated in the validation cohort (n = 273, C‐index: .699) and testing cohort (n = 133, C‐index: .653).The nomogram total points (NTP) had the potential to stratify patients into 3‐risk groups with median OS of 11.7, 7.0 and 3.7 months (P < .001), respectively. In conclusion, the prognostic nomogram with NTP can predict OS for patients with MPC with considerable accuracy.

Performance status and neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio are important prognostic factors in elderly patients with unresectable pancreatic cancer

BACKGROUND

The usefulness of various prognostic factors for pancreatic cancer (PC) has been reported, but the number of elderly patients in these studies is disproportionately fewer compared with those in everyday practice. The purpose of this study was to investigate the prognostic factors for unresectable PC in elderly patients.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed 67 elderly (age ≥75 years) patients with unresectable PC who underwent chemotherapy between January 2006 and December 2014 at our hospital. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression models were applied to investigate independent prognostic factors.

RESULTS

Multivariate analysis revealed that an increased neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) [hazard ratio (HR) 1.91, P=0.03] and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status (PS) 2 (HR 2.74, P=0.01) were independent negative prognostic factors.

CONCLUSIONS

The two prognostic factors identified herein are useful in the identification of patients with a poor prognosis and subsequent administration of supportive care alone, which may help avoid the unnecessary adverse effects and complications of systemic chemotherapy.

Prognostic Scoring Index for Patients with Metastatic Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma

PURPOSE

This study focused on implementation of a prognostic scoring index based on clinico-laboratory parameters measured routinely on admission in metastatic pancreatic cancer patients.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Records from 403 patients of metastatic disease were analyzed retrospectively. Continuous variables were dichotomized according to the normal range or the best cut-off values statistically determined by Contal and O'Quigley method, and then analyzed in association with prognosis-overall survival (OS), using Cox's proportional hazard model. Scores were calculated by summing the rounded chi-square scores for the factors that emerged in the multivariate analysis.

RESULTS

Performance status, hemoglobin, leucocyte count, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio, and carcinoembryonic antigen were independent factors for OS. When patients were divided into three risk groups according to these factors, median survival was 11.7, 6.2, and 1.3 months for the low, intermediate, and high-risk groups, respectively (p < 0.001). Palliative chemotherapy has a significant survival benefit for low and intermediate-risk patients (median OS; 12.5 months vs. 5.9 months, p < 0.001 and 8.0 months vs. 2.0 months, p < 0.001, respectively).

CONCLUSION

We advocate the use of a multivariable approach with continuous variables for prognostic modeling. Our index is helpful in accurate patient risk stratification and may aid in treatment selection.

Prognostic and predictive markers in pancreatic adenocarcinoma

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma is characterized by a poor prognosis and a low median survival, despite improvements observed for many other solid tumours. Intensive research efforts have been undertaken during the last decades to discover new prognostic and treatment predictive biomarkers for pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma. The mainstay of medical treatment for the disease has been the well-tolerated nucleoside analogue, gemcitabine. The only targeted agent currently used in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma patients is the epithelial growth factor receptor inhibitor erlotinib in combination with gemcitabine. Recently, treatment regimens such as a combination of fluorouracil-leucovorin-irinotecan-oxaliplatin (FOLFIRINOX) and the combination of nab-paclitaxel with gemcitabine have been introduced for metastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma. Although these treatment regimens significantly improve survival of patients, there are no good predictive biomarkers available that can be used to identify who would benefit most from them. Therefore, the search for predictive biomarkers that would facilitate personalization of chemotherapy is highly relevant.

Association Between Decreased Serum Albumin With Risk of Venous Thromboembolism and Mortality in Cancer Patients

BACKGROUND

In cancer patients, reduced serum albumin has been described as a marker for global declining health and poor prognosis. Our aim was to investigate the association of albumin concentrations with the occurrence of venous thromboembolism (VTE) and mortality in patients with cancer.

METHODS

This investigation was performed in the framework of the Vienna Cancer and Thrombosis Study (CATS), a prospective observational cohort study. We included 1,070 patients with active cancer and assayed serum albumin from venous blood taken at study inclusion. Risk for occurrence of VTE was calculated in a proportional subdistribution hazard regression model with respect to competing risk of death and adjusted for cancer site, leukocyte count, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and cholinesterase.

RESULTS

Patients (630 males [58.9%] and 440 females [41.1%]) were observed for a median of 723 days. During follow-up, 90 VTE events (8.4%) and 396 deaths (37.0%) occurred. The median albumin was 41.3 g/L (25th-75th percentile, 37.6-44.2). Patients with albumin levels below the 75th percentile had a 2.2-fold increased risk of VTE (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.09-4.32), as well as a 2.3-fold increased risk of death (95% CI 1.68-3.20) compared with patients with albumin above the 75th percentile.

CONCLUSION

Decreased serum albumin levels in cancer patients were significantly associated with increased risk of VTE and mortality. Serum albumin, a marker of a cancer patient's overall prognosis, could be considered for risk assessment of important clinical outcomes such as VTE and mortality.

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE

Cancer patients are at increased risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE). In this prospective cohort study of 1,070 cancer patients, decreased serum albumin was a marker for risk of VTE and mortality, independent of kidney or liver function and inflammation markers. The study identified a group of patients with high risk of cancer-associated VTE and a reduced prognosis who may benefit from supportive therapy such as primary VTE prophylaxis.

The Association Between Chemoradiation-related Lymphopenia and Clinical Outcomes in Patients With Locally Advanced Pancreatic Adenocarcinoma

OBJECTIVES

Lymphopenia is a common consequence of chemoradiation therapy yet is seldom addressed clinically. This study was conducted to determine if patients with locally advanced pancreatic cancer (LAPC) treated with definitive chemoradiation develop significant lymphopenia and if this affects clinical outcomes.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis of patients with LAPC treated with chemoradiation at a single institution from 1997 to 2011 was performed. Total lymphocyte counts (TLCs) were recorded at baseline and then monthly during and after chemoradiation. The correlation between treatment-induced lymphopenia, established prognostic factors, and overall survival was analyzed using univariate Cox regression analysis. Important factors identified by univariate analysis were selected as covariates to construct a multivariate proportional hazards model for survival.

RESULTS

A total of 101 patients met eligibility criteria. TLCs were normal in 86% before chemoradiation. The mean reduction in TLC per patient was 50.6% (SD, 40.6%) 2 months after starting chemoradiation (P<0.00001), and 46% had TLC<500 cells/mm. Patients with TLC<500 cells/mm 2 months after starting chemoradiation had inferior median survival (8.7 vs. 13.3 mo, P=0.03) and PFS (4.9 vs. 9.0 mo, P=0.15). Multivariate analysis revealed TLC<500 cells/mm to be an independent predictor of inferior survival (HR=2.879, P=0.001) along with baseline serum albumin (HR=3.584, P=0.0002), BUN (HR=1.060, P=0.02), platelet count (HR=1.004, P=0.005), and radiation planning target volume (HR=1.003, P=0.0006).

CONCLUSIONS

Severe treatment-related lymphopenia occurs frequently after chemoradiation for LAPC and is an independent predictor of inferior survival.

Initial Metastatic Site as a Prognostic Factor in Patients With Stage IV Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma

Few studies have evaluated the presence of hepatic or peritoneal metastasis as a prognostic factor in patients with metastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). This study aimed to elucidate the prognostic value of the initial metastatic, extrahepatic, or hepatic site in patients with metastatic PDAC. Between January 2007 and December 2013, the medical records of 343 patients with metastatic PDAC treated at Seoul National University Bundang Hospital were retrospectively reviewed. Patients were classified as having extrahepatic metastasis alone (EH), hepatic metastasis alone (LV), and both hepatic and extrahepatic metastasis (BOTH). The median age was 67 years; 207 patients were men. Patients were classified as having EH (111 patients), LV (106), and BOTH (126). Totally, 212 patients underwent chemotherapy with a FOLFIRINOX (23 patients) or gemcitabine-based regimen (189). On multivariate analysis, an ECOG score ≥2 (hazard ratio [HR]: 3.2, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.2-4.5), albumin < 35  g/L (HR: 1.6, 95% CI: 1.1-2.3), C-reactive protein > 10  mg/L (HR: 2.3, 95% CI: 1.6-3.2), neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio > 5 (HR: 1.4, 95% CI: 1.0-2.0), no chemotherapy (HR: 2.0, 95% CI: 1.0-4.1), and metastatic site (LV, HR: 2.1, 95% CI: 1.4-3.1; BOTH, HR: 2.2, 95% CI: 1.6-3.2) were significantly associated with shorter overall survival (OS). Considering the initial metastatic site, the median OS of patients with EH, LV, and BOTH were 7.5 (95% CI: 6.3-8.8), 4.8 (95% CI: 4.1-5.5), and 2.4 (95% CI: 1.9-2.9) months, respectively. The initial metastatic site is significantly and independently associated with OS in patients with metastatic PDAC, serving as an effective prognostic factor.

A prognostic index model to predict the clinical outcomes for advanced pancreatic cancer patients following palliative chemotherapy

Purpose

To establish a prognostic index model for advanced pancreatic cancer patients receiving palliative chemotherapy based on clinical variables.

Methods

The clinical data of 118 patients with advanced pancreatic cancer who received palliative chemotherapy between January 2006 and August 2013 in our center were retrospectively analyzed. Prognostic factors for overall survival were identified using Cox proportional hazards model. A prognostic index model was established by these pretreatment factors to predict prognosis. Kaplan–Meier estimation and log-rank test were performed to compare the overall survival difference between low-risk and high-risk group of patients.

Results

Median overall survival time for all patients was 8.8 months [95 % confidence interval (CI) 7.0–10.6 months]. Multivariate analysis identified ECOG score = 2 (hazard ratio 2.03; 95 % CI 1.07–3.85; P = 0.030), CA19-9 levels of ≥1000 U/mL (hazard ratio 2.07; 95 % CI 1.09–3.92; P = 0.026), and CRP levels of ≥5 mg/L (hazard ratio 2.05; 95 % CI 1.06–3.96; P = 0.033) as independent poor prognostic factors for overall survival. For the three factors, ECOG score = 2, CA19-9 levels of ≥1000 U/mL, and CRP levels of ≥5 mg/L were allocated 1 point each. There were 84 (71.2 %) patients allocated to low-risk group with total score 0–1 point, and 34 (28.8 %) patients were categorized as high-risk group with total scores 2–3 points. The median overall survival for low-risk group and high-risk group was 9.9 months (95 % CI 6.8–13.0) and 5.3 months (95 % CI 4.1–6.5), respectively (hazard ratio 0.27; 95 % CI 0.14–0.52; P < 0.001). The estimated 1-year survival rates for low-risk group and high-risk group were 40.5 and 5.9 %, respectively (P < 0.05).

Conclusions

A novel prognostic index model based on three clinical parameters was established to predict the prognosis of patients with advanced pancreatic cancer receiving palliative chemotherapy.

Choice of plastic or metal stent for patients with jaundice with pancreaticobiliary malignancy using simple clinical tools: a prospective evaluation

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Although plastic stents have been recommended for patients with pancreaticobiliary malignancy and an expected survival of less than 6 months, no study has developed criteria to assess survival which could then determine the choice of stent for biliary decompression. The aim of the study was to determine the utility of simple clinical tools in deciding whether to place a plastic or metal stent in patients with malignant obstructive jaundice.

METHODS

At presentation for endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography for suspected malignant distal bile duct obstruction, prospectively patients with Karnofsky score of <80 and/or metastatic disease to the liver underwent placement of 10-French plastic stents while patients with a Karnofsky score of ≥80 underwent placement of self-expandable metal stents (SEMS). Long-term stent patency and mortality was determined.

RESULTS

98 patients (mean age 66.5 years; 62.2% male) were enrolled with 67 (68.4%) receiving plastic stents and 31 (31.6%) uncovered SEMS. Overall, patients receiving plastic stents had a median survival of 2.8 months compared with 11.6 months for metallic stents (p<0.0001). Patients with a Karnofsky score <80 or liver metastases had very poor survival of 3.1 and 1.8 months, respectively. The overall reintervention rate was 42% for those receiving plastic stents and 19% for metallic stents.

CONCLUSIONS

The decision whether to place a plastic stent or SEMS for patients with distal malignant obstructive jaundice may be based on simple clinical tools resulting in low rates of reintervention.

[Prognostic factors in patients with advanced pancreatic cancer treated with gemcitabine chemotherapy: clinical characteristics of long-term survivors]

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Gemcitabine-based chemotherapy has been used as a standard treatment in patients with unresectable pancreatic cancer. However, the clinical outcomes of this regimen are still unsatisfactory in prolonging survival. We retrospectively analyzed clinical characteristics of patients with advanced pancreatic cancers who received gemcitabine-based chemotherapy and showed long-term survival.

METHODS

We enrolled 49 patients who underwent treatment with more than three cycles of gemcitabine-based chemotherapy. Long-term survivor was defined as patient who has survived more than 12 months after diagnosis. The clinical characteristics were analyzed to compare the differences between long-term and short-term survivors. Univariate or multivariate analyses were performed to identify prognostic factors associated with chemo-responses.

RESULTS

Twenty patients (41%) survived more than 12 months. Long-term survivors had smaller tumor size (OR 2.190, p=0.049, 95% CI 1.005-4.773) and higher serum BUN level (OR 0.833, p=0.039, 95% CI 0.701-0.990) compared to short-term survivors. Overall median and progression-free survivals were 11 and 4 months, respectively. Presence of distant metastasis (hazard ratio 1.441, p=0.035, 95% CI 1.002-2.908) was a significant independent predictor of progression-free survival. Tumor size (hazard ratio 1.534, p=0.004, 95% CI 1.150-2.045) was associated with overall survival.

CONCLUSIONS

Gemcitabine chemotherapy may be more effective and allow longer survivals in patients with clinical characters of smaller tumor size and normal serum BUN level at diagnosis. We suggest a well-designed large controlled study to evaluate the prognostic factors such as clinical characteristics and molecular biological features in patients with advanced pancreatic cancers who receive gemcitabine-based chemotherapy.

Clinical characteristics of long-term survivors of inoperable pancreatic cancer: an 8-year cohort analysis in Korea

OBJECTIVES

Inoperable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma is known to have an extremely poor prognosis. Although rare, there are some patients who have unexpected long-term survival, but the reason is not yet clear.

METHODS

A total of 482 inoperable pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma of 1602 patients diagnosed at Severance Hospital between 2002 and 2009 were evaluated, who were selected statistically with a retrospective cohort study. They were divided into locally advanced pancreatic cancer (LAPC) and metastatic pancreatic cancer (MPC). Short-term survivors (SS group) were defined as patients who survived less than 9 months with LAPC and 6 months with MPC. Patients who survived 3 times longer than the SS group were classified as long-term survivors (LS group). Predictive factors of long-survival were identified by comparing the 2 groups, and effects of these factors on survival were investigated statistically.

RESULTS

In multivariate analysis, better performance status and lower CA19-9 were related to overall survival in LAPC. In MPC, younger age, better performance status, peritoneal metastasis, higher serum albumin, lower CA19-9, and CA19-9 variation were related to overall survival.

CONCLUSIONS

These parameters related to long-term survivors of advanced pancreatic cancer can be useful for the expectation of survival. In the near future, conjunction of these clinical factors and novel molecular biologic characteristics of individual patients can be used for the personalized therapy.

Prognostic factors related to add-on dendritic cell vaccines on patients with inoperable pancreatic cancer receiving chemotherapy: a multicenter analysis

OBJECTIVE

Dendritic cell (DC)-based cancer vaccines may have a significant benefit to patients with advanced pancreatic cancer. However, variations among clinical studies make it difficult to compare clinical outcomes. Here, we identified factors that determined the clinical benefits by analyzing data obtained at seven Japanese institutions that employed the same DC preparation and treatment regimens.

METHODS

Of 354 patients who met the inclusion criteria, 255 patients who received standard chemotherapy combined with peptide-pulsed DC vaccines were analyzed.

RESULTS

The mean survival time from diagnosis was 16.5 months (95 % CI 14.4-18.5) and that from the first vaccination was 9.9 months (95 % CI 8.0-12.9). Known prognostic baseline factors related to advanced pancreatic cancer, namely ECOG-PS, peritoneal metastasis, liver metastasis, and the prognostic nutrition index, were also representative. Importantly, we found that erythema reaction after vaccination was an independent and treatment-related prognostic factor for better survival and that OK-432 might be a good adjuvant enhancing the antitumor immunity during DC vaccination.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first report of a multicenter clinical study suggesting the feasibility and possible clinical benefit of an add-on DC vaccine in patients with advanced pancreatic cancer who are undergoing chemotherapy. These findings need to be addressed in well-controlled prospective randomized trials.

A meta-analysis of randomized trials: immediate stent placement vs. surgical bypass in the palliative management of malignant biliary obstruction

CONTEXT

Many patients with unresectable pancreatic and peripancreatic cancer require treatment for malignant biliary obstruction.

OBJECTIVES

To conduct a meta-analysis of the English language literature (1985-2011) comparing immediate biliary stent placement and immediate surgical biliary bypass in patients with unresectable pancreatic and peripancreatic cancer and analyze associated hospital utilization patterns.

METHODS

After identifying five randomized controlled trials comparing immediate biliary stent placement and immediate surgical biliary bypass, we performed a meta-analysis for dichotomous outcomes, using a random effects model. We compared resource utilization in terms of the number of hospital days before death by reviewing high-quality literature.

RESULTS

Three hundred seventy-nine patients were identified. We found no statistically significant differences in success rates between the two treatments (risk ratio [RR] 0.99; 95% CI 0.93-1.05; P = 0.67). Major complications and mortality were not significantly higher after surgical bypass (RR 1.54; 95% CI 0.87-2.71; P = 0.14). Recurrent biliary obstruction was significantly less frequent after surgical bypass than after stent placement (RR 0.14; 95% CI 0.03-0.63; P < 0.01). Despite similar overall survival rates, longer survival was associated with more hospital days before death in stent patients than in surgical patients.

CONCLUSION

Nearly all patients with unresectable pancreatic cancer benefit from some procedure to manage biliary obstruction. Patients with low surgical risk benefit more from surgery because the risk of recurrence and subsequent hospital utilization are lower than after stent placement.

Effect of genetic polymorphisms on therapeutic response and clinical outcomes in pancreatic cancer patients treated with gemcitabine

AIM

Gemcitabine is the first chemotherapeutic agent to show clinical benefits in pancreatic cancer patients. While interindividual variability in chemoresponse is observed, genetic factors that affect drug metabolism have not been clearly defined. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the relationships between genetic polymorphisms and therapeutic efficacy in pancreatic cancer patients treated with gemcitabine.

PATIENTS & METHODS

The study population consisted of 102 pancreatic cancer patients who had been treated with a gemcitabine-based chemotherapeutic regimen. 102 genetic polymorphisms were selected from 23 genes involved in the metabolism and action sites of gemcitabine and screened for polymorphisms using the MassARRAY(®) system. The polymorphisms and haplotypes were analyzed in relation to overall survival (OS), time-to-progression (TTP) and disease progression.

RESULTS

CMPK1 360C>T was significantly associated with OS, TTP and disease progression (p = 0.042, 0.007 and 0.040, respectively, in a dominant genetic model). Additionally, CMPK1 240G>T was correlated with OS and TTP. The frequencies of the haplotypes for the CMPK1, SLC28A1, DCTD and TLE4 genes differed according to disease progression.

CONCLUSION

Genetic polymorphisms in genes related to metabolism and action sites of gemcitabine showed associations with the therapeutic efficacy, in terms of OS, TTP and disease progression in pancreatic cancer patients treated with gemcitabine-based chemotherapy. In particular, polymorphisms of the CMPK1 gene seem to provide important prognostic information.

Long term survivors with metastatic pancreatic cancer treated with gemcitabine alone or plus cisplatin: a retrospective analysis of an Anatolian Society of Medical Oncology multicenter study

BACKGROUND

The majority of patients with pancreatic cancer present with advanced disease. Systemic chemotherapy has limited impact on overall survival (OS) so that eligible patients should be selected carefully. The aim of this study was to analyze prognostic factors for survival in Turkish advanced pancreatic cancer patients who survived more than one year from the diagnosis of recurrent and/or metastatic disease and receiving gemcitabine (Gem) alone or gemcitabine plus cisplatin (GemCis).

METHODS

This retrospective evaluation was performed for patients who survived more than one year from the diagnosis of recurrent and/or metastatic disease and who received gemcitabine between December 2005 and August 2011. Twenty-seven potential prognostic variables were chosen for univariate and multivariate analyses to identify prognostic factors associated with survival.

RESULTS

Among the 27 variables in univariate analysis, three were identified to have prognostic significance: sex (p=0.04), peritoneal dissemination (p=0.02) and serum creatinine level (p=0.05). Multivariate analysis by Cox proportional hazard model showed only peritoneal dissemination to be an independent prognostic factor for survival.

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, peritoneal metastasis was identified as an important prognostic factor in metastatic pancreatic cancer patients who survived more than one year from the diagnosis of recurrent and/ or metastatic disease and receiving Gem or GemCis. The findings should facilitate pretreatment prediction of survival and can be used for selecting patients for treatment.