Medication use and risk of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: using machine learning for an exposome-wide screen of a large clinical database

BACKGROUND

Accumulating evidence suggests that non-genetic factors have important etiologic roles in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), yet identification of specific culprit factors has been challenging. Many medications target biological pathways implicated in ALS pathogenesis, and screening large pharmacologic datasets for signals could greatly accelerate the identification of risk-modulating pharmacologic factors for ALS.

METHOD

We conducted a high-dimensional screening of patients' history of medication use and ALS risk using an advanced machine learning approach based on gradient-boosted decision trees coupled with Bayesian model optimization and repeated data sampling. Clinical and medication dispensing data were obtained from a large Israeli health fund for 501 ALS cases and 4,998 matched controls using a lag period of 3 or 5 years prior to ALS diagnosis for ascertaining medication exposure.

RESULTS

Of over 1,000 different medication classes, we identified 8 classes that were consistently associated with increased ALS risk across independently trained models, where most are indicated for control of symptoms implicated in ALS. Some suggestive protective effects were also observed, notably for vitamin E.

DISCUSSION

Our results indicate that use of certain medications well before the typically recognized prodromal period was associated with ALS risk. This could result because these medications increase ALS risk or could indicate that ALS symptoms can manifest well before suggested prodromal periods. The results also provide further evidence that vitamin E may be a protective factor for ALS. Targeted studies should be performed to elucidate the possible pathophysiological mechanisms while providing insights for therapeutics design.

Global Prevalence and Incidence of Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a rare neurodegenerative disorder affecting upper and lower motor neurons. Due to its rarity and rapidly progressive nature, studying the epidemiology of ALS is challenging, and a comprehensive picture of the global burden of this disease is lacking. The objective of this systematic review was to describe the global incidence and prevalence of ALS.

METHODS

We searched MEDLINE, Embase, Global Health, PsycInfo, Cochrane Library, and CINAHL to identify articles published between January 1, 2010, and May 6, 2021. Studies that were population based and reported estimates of prevalence, incidence, and/or mortality of ALS were eligible for inclusion. This study focuses on the incidence and prevalence. Quality assessment was performed using a tool developed to evaluate methodology relevant to prevalence and incidence studies. This review was registered with PROSPERO, CRD42021250559.

RESULTS

This search generated 6,238 articles, of which 140 were selected for data extraction and quality assessment. Of these, 85 articles reported on the incidence and 61 on the prevalence of ALS. Incidence ranged from 0.26 per 100,000 person-years in Ecuador to 23.46 per 100,000 person-years in Japan. Point prevalence ranged from 1.57 per 100,000 in Iran to 11.80 per 100,000 in the United States. Many articles identified cases with ALS from multiple data sources.

DISCUSSION

There is variation in reported incidence and prevalence estimates of ALS across the world. While registries are an important and powerful tool to quantify disease burden, such resources are not available everywhere. This results in gaps in reporting of the global epidemiology of ALS, as highlighted by the degree of variation (and quality) in estimates of incidence and prevalence reported in this review.

Age of Onset and Length of Survival of Queensland Patients with Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis: Details of Subjects with Early Onset and Subjects with Long Survival

INTRODUCTION

The aims of the study were to document the characteristics of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) patients in Queensland, to examine factors influencing age of onset, and survival, and to study those with early-onset (<45 years) disease and those with long (>5 years) survival.

METHODS

We studied subjects seen at the ALS Clinic at the Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital. We recorded sex, age of onset, region of onset, length of survival, presence of family history, type of disease, and evidence of cognitive involvement. We analysed the influence of these features on age of onset and survival. We analysed the features of patients with early onset of disease and patients with long survival.

RESULTS

There were 855 ALS patients (505 males) in the cohort. The age of onset was lower in males than females, in patients with a family history of ALS compared to those without, and in patients with spinal onset compared to bulbar onset. Early-onset disease was seen in 10% of patients, and had a greater proportion of males, spinal onset, and classical ALS phenotype compared to late-onset disease. Survival was shorter in females, in patients with bulbar onset, and in patients with classical ALS. Long survival was seen in 18% of patients. Patients with long survival had younger age of onset, greater proportion of males, spinal onset, and fewer patients with classical ALS.

CONCLUSION

Our study confirms that ALS is more prevalent in males and that spinal onset is more common than bulbar onset. Males have earlier onset but longer survival. We found that overall, patients with classical ALS have worse survival than ALS variants, but some patients who were considered to have classical ALS had long survival. This study confirms the similarity of ALS in our region to ALS in other geographical regions.

Medication use and risk of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis-a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Studying whether medications act as potential risk factors for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) can contribute to the understanding of disease etiology as well as the identification of novel therapeutic targets. Therefore, we conducted a systematic review to summarize the existing evidence on the association between medication use and the subsequent ALS risk.

METHODS

A systematic review was conducted in Medline, Embase, and Web of Science from the date of database establishment to December 10, 2021. References of identified articles were further searched for additional relevant articles. Studies were included if (1) published in English, (2) explored medication use as exposure and development of ALS as outcome, and (3) the design was a human observational study. Clinical trials, reviews, comments, editorials, and case reports were excluded. Quality assessment was performed using a pre-validated tool for non-randomized studies, the Newcastle-Ottawa Assessment Scale (NOS).

RESULTS

Of the 4760 studies identified, 25 articles, including 13 case-control studies, five nested case-control studies, six cohort studies, and one retrospective chart review, were included in the review. Among these studies, there were 22 distinct study populations that included 171,407 patients with ALS, seven classes of medication examined, and 23 studies with a NOS ≥ 5. There was a general lack of agreement between studies on the associations of cholesterol-lowering drugs, anti-inflammatory drugs, immunosuppressants, antibiotics, oral contraceptives (OCs) or hormone replacement therapy (HRT), antihypertensive drugs, antidiabetics, and drugs for psychiatric and neurological disorders with the subsequent risk of ALS. However, it appeared that statins, aspirin, OCs/HRT, antihypertensives, and antidiabetics were unlikely related to a higher risk of ALS. The positive associations noted for antibiotics, antidepressants, and skeletal muscle relaxants might be attributable to prodromal symptoms of ALS.

CONCLUSIONS

There is currently no strong evidence to link any medication use with ALS risk.

Evidence-based position paper on Physical and Rehabilitation Medicine practice for people with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a progressive motor neuron disease that affects both upper and lower motor neurons and is fatal in its course. This evidence-based position paper represents the official position of the UEMS PRM Section. The aim of the paper is to define the role of the physical and rehabilitation medicine (PRM) physician and PRM professional practice for people with ALS. A systematic review of the literature and a consensus procedure by means of a Delphi process have been performed involving the delegates of all European countries represented in the UEMS PRM Section. The systematic literature review is reported together with thirty-two recommendations resulting from the Delphi procedure. The responsibility of the PRM physician is functional assessment of persons with ALS and delivering the optimal and most effective PRM program of care. The rehabilitation program of patients with ALS should be delivered and monitored by the multiprofessional team, with the PRM physician as principal coordinator.

Current and Future Projections of Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis in the United States Using Administrative Claims Data

BACKGROUND

Various methodologies have been reported to assess the real-world epidemiology of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) in the United States. The aim of this study was to estimate the prevalence, incidence, and geographical distribution of ALS using administrative claims data and to model future trends in ALS epidemiology.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective analysis of deidentified administrative claims data for >100 million patients, using 2 separate databases (IBM MarketScan Research Databases and Symphony Health Integrated DataVerse [IDV]), to identify patients with ALS. We evaluated disease prevalence, annual incidence, age- and population-controlled geographical distribution, and expected future trends.

RESULTS

From 2013 to 2017, we identified 7,316 and 35,208 ALS patients from the MarketScan databases and IDV, respectively. Average annual incidence estimates were 1.48 and 1.37 per 100,000 and point prevalence estimates were 6.85 and 5.16 per 100,000 and in the United States for the MarketScan databases and IDV, respectively. Predictive modeling estimates are reported out to the year 2060 and demonstrate an increasing trend in both incident and prevalent cases.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides incidence and prevalence estimates as well as geographical distribution for what the authors believe to be the largest ALS population studied to date. By using 2 separate administrative claims data sets, confidence in our estimates is increased. Future projections based on either database demonstrate an increase in ALS cases, which has also been seen in other large-scale ALS studies. These results can be used to help improve the allocation of healthcare resources in the future.

Diabetes mellitus is associated with a lower risk of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND/AIMS

Previous studies have suggested that diabetes mellitus (DM) could be a protective factor against amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) although the results are inconsistent. This study aimed to comprehensively investigate this relationship by identifying all available studies and summarizing their results.

METHODS

A systematic review was conducted in MEDLINE and EMBASE database from inception to January 1st, 2020 to identify cohort studies and case-control studies that investigated the risk of development of ALS among patients with DM versus individuals without DM. Point estimates and standard errors from eligible studies were pooled together using the generic inverse variance method, as described by DerSimonian and Laird. Visualization of the funnel plot was used to assess for the presence of publication bias.

RESULTS

A total of 1683 articles were identified by the search strategy. After two rounds of review, three cohort studies and eight case-control studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria and were included in the meta-analysis. The risk of developing ALS was significantly lower among patients with DM than individuals without DM with the pooled relative risk of 0.68 (95 % CI, 0.55 - 0.84; I² 81 %). The funnel plot was relatively symmetric and was not suggestive of the presence of publication bias.

CONCLUSION

A significantly decreased risk of ALS among patients with DM was observed in this meta-analysis.

What do we know about the variability in survival of patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis?

INTRODUCTION

ALS is a fatal neurodegenerative disease. However, patients show variability in the length of survival after symptom onset. Understanding the mechanisms of long survival could lead to possible avenues for therapy.

AREAS COVERED

This review surveys the reported length of survival in ALS, the clinical features that predict survival in individual patients, and possible factors, particularly genetic factors, that could cause short or long survival. The authors also speculate on possible mechanisms.

EXPERT OPINION

a small number of known factors can explain some variability in ALS survival. However, other disease-modifying factors likely exist. Factors that alter motor neurone vulnerability and immune, metabolic, and muscle function could affect survival by modulating the disease process. Knowing these factors could lead to interventions to change the course of the disease. The authors suggest a broad approach is needed to quantify the proportion of variation survival attributable to genetic and non-genetic factors and to identify and estimate the effect size of specific factors. Studies of this nature could not only identify novel avenues for therapeutic research but also play an important role in clinical trial design and personalized medicine.

Global variation in prevalence and incidence of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a global disease, which adversely affects the life quality of patients and significantly increases the burden of families and society. We aimed to assess the changing incidence, prevalence of ALS around the world.

METHODS

We searched Medline, Embase, Web of Science, and Cochrane library to identify articles published until September 9, 2018. Each included study was independently reviewed for methodological quality by two reviewers. We used a random-effects model to summarize individual studies and assessed heterogeneity (I²) with the χ² test on Cochrane's Q statistic.

RESULTS

We identified 124 studies that were eligible for final inclusion, including 110 studies of incidence and 58 studies of prevalence. The overall crude worldwide ALS prevalence and incidence were 4.42 (95% CI 3.92-4.96) per 1,00,000 population and 1.59 (95% CI 1.39-1.81) per 1,00,000 person-years, respectively. ALS prevalence and incidence increased by age until the age of 70-79. Since 1957, incidence has been significantly rising year by year, and this upward trend was weakened after standardization. The longest survival time were in Asia (ranging from 3.74 years in South Asia to 9.23 years in West Asia).

CONCLUSIONS

With the aggravation of population aging and the rapid growth of economy, developing regions following the development pattern of the developed regions may suffer rising ALS prevalence and incidence which may increase their disease burden as well. These data highlight the need for research into underlying mechanism and innovations in health-care systems.

A retrospective study of the clinical phenotype and predictors of survival in non-Caucasian Hispanic patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

BACKGROUND

Little is known about the clinical phenotype of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) in non-Caucasian populations. Here, we aimed to describe the clinical characteristics, prognostic factors and survival of Mexican patients with ALS.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective study by reviewing the medical records of patients with ALS that attended and were regularly followed at a third level hospital in Mexico City from 2000 to 2015. We calculated absolute and relative frequencies of the clinical characteristics from all the participants. We also estimated correlation coefficients between clinical features and overall survival. Additionally, survival rates were compared for all participants grouped according to different clinical features using the Kaplan-Meier method and the log-rank test.

RESULTS

We enrolled 45 ALS patients, 53.33% had spinal-onset ALS and 46.66% presented bulbar ALS. The male/female ratio was 0.8. The mean age at onset of symptoms was 58.11 years. Mean survival time from onset was 64.73 ± 34.83 months. Cumulative survival rate after 5 years of disease onset was 44.44%. Age at onset and age at diagnosis inversely correlated with overall survival time. Also, we found that bulbar-onset, short diagnostic delay, percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy, mechanical ventilation, and lower total cholesterol serum levels were associated with short survival.

CONCLUSIONS

The clinical characteristics of Mexican ALS patients differ from the disease phenotype observed in Caucasians. Nonetheless, the predictive value of certain well-recognized prognostic factors remains consistent in our population. The current study provides relevant information for a better understanding of prognostic factors in ALS patients from Mexico and other Latin American countries.

Using the Capture-Recapture Method to Estimate the Incidence of Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis in Beijing, China

BACKGROUND

To assess the total, gender-related and ageing process-related incidence rates of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) in Beijing, China. Determine whether the decreased male to female ratio among postmenopausal age groups.

METHODS

We used the 2-source capture-recapture method to estimate the incidence of ALS in Beijing. The primary and secondary data sources were from diagnostic hospitals and assisted care institutions in the same area from 2010 to 2015.

RESULTS

A total of 562 cases and 283 cases were extracted from 2 data sources, and a total of 962 patients diagnosed with ALS within the 6-year period were estimated (95% CI 883-1041). The average yearly incidence was 0.77/100,000 persons (95% CI 0.71-0.83). The female to male ratio was 1.63. The incidence was associated with age and peaked in the 55-64 year age group. There was no obvious decline in the male:female ratio among postmenopausal age groups.

CONCLUSIONS

The total incidence of ALS in Beijing is similar to international reports. The onset of ALS is not merely the result of ageing.

Assessing amyotrophic lateral sclerosis prevalence in Norway from 2009 to 2015 from compulsory nationwide health registers

OBJECTIVE

In Norway, diagnoses from specialist health care visits, drug prescriptions, and causes of deaths are registered in compulsory health registers. We aimed to determine amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) prevalence from 2009 to 2015 by combining these registers.

METHODS

We validated the Norwegian Patient Registry (NPR) through hospital files, and linked it with the Norwegian Cause of Death Registry and the Norwegian Prescription Database. Poisson regression models were fitted for estimating gender ratios, time trends and possible interactions. Similar models were used for mortality data subtracted from the dataset.

RESULTS

Eleven percent of patients with at least one ALS-related entry in NPR did not have ALS. ALS prevalence could nevertheless be reliably estimated through ascertaining cases identified in two separate registers, or with at least two entries in NPR with first entry within four years prior to prevalence date. ALS prevalence remained stable, and was 7.6/100,000 (95% CI 6.9-8.4) at 31st December 2015. Mean male:female ratio was higher for prevalence (1.8; 95% CI 1.6-2.0) than for mortality (1.5; 95% CI 1.2-1.8) (p = 0.04). There were also significant regional differences in prevalence (p < 0.01) but not in mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Norwegian compulsory health registers provide reliable tools for ALS surveillance, and suggest gender and regional differences in survival after diagnosis.