A comparison of the original and simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index

Perfusion index: could it be a new tool for early identification of pulmonary embolism severity?

Perfusion index (PI) is a promising indicator for monitoring peripheral perfusion. The present study aimed to compare the efficiency of PI and PESI score in estimating the 30-day mortality and treatment needs of patients diagnosed with pulmonary embolism in the emergency department. This study was prospective and observational. The demographic features of the patients, comorbidities, vital signs, PESI score, PI, treatment applied to the patient and airway management, right ventricular diameter/left ventricular diameter ratio, length of hospital stay, outcome, and 30-day mortality were recorded. A total of 94 patients were included. All patients' vital signs and PI values were recorded on admission. The mean pulse rate (p = 0.001) and shock index (p = 0.017) values of deceased patients were statistically significantly higher, while the mean PI (p = 0.034) was statistically significantly lower. PESI score and PI were statistically significant to predict the need for mechanical ventilation (PI, p = 0.004; PESI score, p < 0.001), inotropic treatment (PI, p = 0.047; PESI score p = 0.005), and thrombolytic therapy (PI, p = 0.035; PESI score p = 0.003). According to the ROC curve, the mortality prediction power of both PESI (AUC: 0.787, 95% CI 0.688-0.886, cutoff: 109.5, p < 0.001) and PI index (AUC: 0.668, 95% CI 0.543-0.793, cutoff: 1, p = 0.011) were determined as statistically significant. PI might be helpful in clinical practice as a tool that can be applied to predict mortality and treatment needs in PE.

Development and external validation of a nomogram for predicting short-term prognosis in patients with acute pulmonary embolism

BACKGROUND

Accurate assessment and timely intervention play a crucial role in ameliorating poor short-term prognosis of acute pulmonary embolism (APE) patients. The currently employed scoring models exhibit a degree of complexity, and some models may not comprehensively incorporate relevant indicators, thereby imposing limitations on the evaluative efficacy. Our study aimed to construct and externally validate a nomogram that predicts 30-day all-cause mortality risk in APE patients.

METHODS

Clinical data from APE patients in Intensive Care-IV database was included as a training cohort. Additionally, we utilized our hospital's APE database as an external validation cohort. The nomogram was developed, and its predictive ability was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration plots and decision curve analysis.

RESULTS

A collective of 1332 patients and 336 patients were respectively enrolled as the training cohort and the validation cohort in this study. Five variables including age, malignancy, oxygen saturation, blood glucose, and the use of vasopressor, were identified based on the results of the multivariate Cox regression model. The ROC value for the nomogram in the training cohort yielded 0.765, whereas in the validation group, it reached 0.907. Notably, these values surpassed the corresponding ROC values for the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index, which were 0.713 in the training cohort and 0.754 in the validation cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

The nomogram including five indicators had a good performance in predicting short-term prognosis in patients with APE, which was easier to apply and provided better recommendations for clinical decision-making.

The association between lactate dehydrogenase to serum albumin ratio and in-hospital mortality in patients with pulmonary embolism: a retrospective analysis of the MIMIC-IV database

Background

Lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) and albumin (ALB) were found to be significantly correlated with mortality in pulmonary embolism (PE) patients. However, data regarding the LDH/ALB ratio (LAR) in patients with acute PE are scanty. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the association between LAR and the risk of mortality in patients with acute PE.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study was conducted on patients with acute PE represented in the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV). A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and calibration curve were used to assess the accuracy of the LAR for predicting mortality in patients with acute PE. We utilized Cox regression analysis to determine adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). Survival curves were used to evaluate a connection between the LAR and prognosis in patients with acute PE.

Results

The study comprised 581 patients, and the 30-day all-cause mortality rate was 7.7%. We observed a higher LAR in the non-survival group compared to the surviving group (21.24 ± 21.22 vs. 8.99 ± 7.86, p < 0.0001). The Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that patients with an elevated LAR had a significantly lower likelihood of surviving the 30-day mortality compared to those with a low LAR. Cox regression analysis showed that LAR (HR = 1.04, 95% CI: 1.03-1.05) might have associations with 30-day mortality in patients with acute PE. This result was supported by sensitivity analyses. According to the results of the ROC curve analysis, the LAR's prediction of 30-day mortality in patients with acute PE yielded an area under the ROC curve of 0.73. A calibration curve showed LAR is well calibrated.

Conclusion

Our research suggests LAR monitoring may be promising as a prognostic marker among patients with acute PE.

PrOgnosis in Pulmonary Embolism (PoPE): 30-Day mortality risk score based on five admission parameters

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVE

Several scoring systems have been developed for risk stratification in patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE). The Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI) and its simplified version (sPESI) are among the most used, however the high number of variables hinder its application. Our aim was to derive an easy-to-perform score based on simple parameters obtained at admission to predict 30-day mortality in acute PE patients.

METHODS

Retrospective study in 1115 patients with acute PE from two institutions (derivation cohort n=835, validation cohort n=280). The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality at 30 days. Statistically and clinically relevant variables were selected for multivariable Cox regression analysis. We derived and validated a multivariable risk score model and compared to other established scores.

RESULTS

The primary endpoint occurred in 207 patients (18.6%). Our model included five variables weighted as follows: modified shock index ≥1.1 (hazard ratio [HR] 2.57, 1.68-3.92, p<0.001), active cancer (HR 2.27, 1.45-3.56, p<0.001), altered mental state (HR 3.82, 2.50-5.83, p<0.001), serum lactate concentration ≥2.50 mmol/L (HR 5.01, 3.25-7.72, p<0.001), and age ≥80 years (HR 1.95, 1.26-3.03, p=0.003). The prognostic ability was superior to other scores (area under curve [AUC] 0.83 [0.79-0.87] vs 0.72 [0.67-0.79] in PESI and 0.70 [0.62-0.75] in sPESI, p<0.001) and its performance in the validation cohort was deemed good (73 events in 280 patients, 26.1%, AUC=0.76, 0.71-0.82, p<0.0001) and superior to other scores (p<0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

The PoPE score (https://tinyurl.com/ybsnka8s) is an easy tool with superior performance to predict early mortality in patients admitted for PE with non-high-risk PE.

Predicting acute and long-term mortality in a cohort of pulmonary embolism patients using machine learning

BACKGROUND

Pulmonary embolism (PE) is a severe condition that causes significant mortality and morbidity. Due to its acute nature, scores have been developed to stratify patients at high risk of 30-day mortality. Here we develop a machine-learning based score to predict 30-day, 90-day, and 365-day mortality in PE patients.

METHODS

The Birmingham and Black Country Venous Thromboembolism registry (BBC-VTE) of 2183 venous thromboembolism patients is used. Random forests were trained on a 70% training cohort and tested against 30% held-out set. The outcomes of interest were 30-day, 90-day, and 365-day mortality. These were compared to the pulmonary embolism severity index (PESI) and simplified pulmonary embolism severity index (sPESI). Shapley values were used to determine important predictors. Oral anticoagulation at discharge was also investigated as a predictor of mortality.

RESULTS

The machine learning risk score predicted 30-day mortality with AUC 0.71 [95% CI: 0.63 - 0.78] compared to the sPESI AUC of 0.65 [95% CI: 0.57 - 0.73] and PESI AUC of 0.64 [95% CI: 0.56 - 0.72]. 90-day mortality and 365-day mortality were predicted with an AUC of 0.74 and 0.73 respectively. High counts of neutrophils, white blood cell counts, and c-reactive protein and low counts of haemoglobin were important for 30-day mortality prediction but progressively lost importance with time. Older age was an important predictor of high risk throughout.

CONCLUSION

Machine learning algorithms have improved on standard clinical risk stratification for PE patients. External cohort validation is required before incorporation into clinical workflows.

Validation of the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index Risk Classification and the 2019 European Society of Cardiology Risk Stratification in the Southeast Asian Population with Acute Pulmonary Embolism

AIM

To date, no studies representing the Southeast Asian population have validated the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI) and 2019 European Society of Cardiology (ESC) risk stratification. Therefore, this study aimed to validate the PESI score, simplified PESI (sPESI), PESI risk classification, and 2019 ESC risk stratification in Southeast Asian patients with acute pulmonary embolism (APE).

METHODS

The present study is a 10-year cross-sectional study. Here, risk regressions were conducted to identify the PESI risk classification, sPESI, and 2019 ESC risk stratification as predictors for 30-day all-cause and PE-related mortalities. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were constructed to determine the diagnostic ability of the PESI score, sPESI score, PESI risk classification, and 2019 ESC risk stratification to predict 30-day mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 696 patients (male, 286; female, 410; mean age, 57.7±15.7 years) were included in this study from 2011 to 2020. The risk of 30-day all-cause mortality progressively increased with the 2019 ESC risk stratification, being approximately 6-fold higher in the high-risk than in the low-risk class [risk ratio: 6.24 (95% confidence interval (CI), 3.12, 12.47), P＜0.001]. The risk of 30-day all-cause mortality with the PESI risk classification also increased with the risk classes, being approximately 6-fold higher in class V than in class I [adjusted risk ratio: 5.91 (95% CI, 2.25, 15.51), P＜0.001]. The highest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AuROC) of the predictive model was the PESI score [AuROC=0.733 (95% CI, 0.685, 0.782)].

CONCLUSION

Our study represents a good validation of the PESI and 2019 ESC risk stratification to predict 30-day mortality after APE diagnosis in the Southeast Asian population.

Does the clot burden as assessed by the Mean Bilateral Proximal Extension of the Clot score reflect mortality and adverse outcome after pulmonary embolism?

Background

Rapid diagnosis and risk stratification are important to reduce the risk of adverse clinical events and mortality in acute pulmonary embolism (PE). Although clot burden has not been consistently shown to correlate with disease outcomes, proximally located PE is generally perceived as more severe.

Purpose

To explore the ability of the Mean Bilateral Proximal Extension of the Clot (MBPEC) score to predict mortality and adverse outcome.

Methods

This was a single center retrospective cohort study. 1743 patients with computed tomography pulmonary arteriography (CTPA) verified PE diagnosed between 2005 and 2020 were included. Patients with active malignancy were excluded. The PE clot burden was assessed with MBPEC score: The most proximal extension of PE was scored in each lung from 1 = sub-segmental to 4 = central. The MBPEC score is the score from each lung divided by two and rounded up to nearest integer.

Results

We found inconsistent associations between higher and lower MBPEC scores versus mortality. The all-cause 30-day mortality of 3.9% (95% CI: 3.0-4.9). The PE-related mortality was 2.4% (95% CI: 1.7-3.3). Patients with MBPEC score 1 had higher all-cause mortality compared to patients with MBPEC score 4: Crude Hazard Ratio (cHR) was 2.02 (95% CI: 1.09-3.72). PE-related mortality was lower in patients with MBPEC score 3 compared to score 4: cHR 0.22 (95% CI: 0.05-0.93). Patients with MBPEC score 4 did more often receive systemic thrombolysis compared to patients with MBPEC score 1-3: 3.2% vs. 0.6% (p < .001). Patients with MBPEC score 4 where more often admitted to the intensive care unit: 13% vs. 4.7% (p < .001).

Conclusion

We found no consistent association between the MBPEC score and mortality. Our results therefore indicate that peripheral PE does not necessarily entail a lower morality risk than proximal PE.

Impact of obstructive sleep apnea on outcomes of pulmonary embolism: A systematic review and meta‑analysis

The current review aimed to assess the effect of obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) on the severity and outcomes of pulmonary embolism (PE). PubMed, Embase, ScienceDirect, CENTRAL and Google Scholar were searched for studies assessing the impact of OSA on severity and outcomes of PE. A total of 12 studies were included. Meta-analysis revealed that simplified PE severity index of >1 and pulmonary artery obstruction index score was significantly higher in patients with OSA as compared with controls, but there was no difference in right ventricle to left ventricle short-axis diameter. The need for non-invasive ventilation was significantly higher in patients with OSA but there was no difference in the need for mechanical ventilation. Patients with OSA had a significantly higher incidence of recurrence of PE. Meta-analysis also showed a statistically significantly lower risk of in-hospital mortality in patients with OSA as compared with controls, but without any difference in the risk of late mortality. Adjusted data on mortality indicated a significantly lower risk of mortality in PE patients with comorbid OSA. Limited data shows that comorbid OSA increases the severity of PE but has no effect on right ventricular function. OSA may increase the risk of recurrent PE. Paradoxically, the presence of OSA may also reduce the risk of in-hospital mortality. Results must be interpreted with caution owing to high inter-study heterogeneity and lack of matching of baseline characteristics. Current evidence needs to be confirmed by high-quality prospective studies.

The safety and efficacy of systemic versus catheter-based therapies: application of a prognostic model by a pulmonary embolism response team

The decision by pulmonary embolism response teams (PERTs) to utilize anticoagulation (AC) with or without systemic thrombolysis (ST) or catheter-directed therapies (CDT) for pulmonary embolism (PE) is a balance between the desire for a positive outcome and safety. Our primary aim was to develop a predictive model of in-hospital mortality for patients with high- or intermediate-risk PE managed by PERT while externally validating this model. Our secondary aim was to compare the relative safety and efficacy of ST and CDT in this cohort. Consecutive patients hospitalized between June 2014 and January 2020 at the Cleveland Clinic Foundation and The University of Rochester with acute high- or intermediate-risk PE managed by PERT were retrospectively evaluated. Groups were stratified by treatment strategy. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality, and secondary outcome was major bleeding. A logistic regression model to predict the primary outcome was built using the derivation cohort, with 100-fold bootstrapping for internal validation. External validation was performed and the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) was calculated. Of 549 included patients, 421 received AC alone, 71 received ST, and 64 received CDT. Predictors of major bleeding include ESC risk category, PESI score, hypoxia, hemodynamic instability, and serum lactate. CDT trended towards lower mortality but with an increased risk of bleeding relative to ST (OR = 0.42; 95% CI [0.15, 1.17] and OR = 2.14; 95% CI [0.9, 5.06] respectively). In the multivariable logistic regression model in the derivation institution cohort, predictors of in-hospital mortality were age, cancer, hemodynamic instability requiring vasopressors, and elevated NT-proBNP (AUC = 0.86). This model was validated using the validation institution cohort (AUC = 0.88). We report an externally-validated model for predicting in-hospital mortality in patients with PE managed by PERT. The decision by PERT to initiate CDT or ST for these patients had no impact on mortality or major bleeding, yet the long-term efficacy of these interventions needs to be elucidated.

Contemporary management of acute pulmonary embolism

This review examines the recent progress in the initial management of pulmonary embolism (PE). Diagnostic strategies allowing the safe decrease of imaging testing have been proposed. New modalities of catheter-based interventions have emerged for hemodynamically unstable PE patients. For normotensive PE patients, direct oral anticoagulant treatment has become the new norm and a large proportion of patients are eligible for home treatment.

Pearls and Myths in the Evaluation of Patients with Suspected Acute Pulmonary Embolism

Significant improvement has been achieved in diagnostic accuracy, validation of probability scores, and standardized treatment algorithms for patients with suspected acute pulmonary embolism. These developments have provided the tools for a safe and cost-effective management for most of these patients. In our experience, however, the presence of medical myths and ongoing controversies seem to hinder the implementation of these tools in everyday clinical practice. This review provides a selection of such dilemmas and controversies and discusses the published evidence beyond them. By doing so, we try to overcome these dilemmas and suggest pragmatic approaches guided by the available evidence and current guidelines.

Validation of the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index for risk stratification after acute pulmonary embolism in a cohort of patients in Brazil

OBJECTIVE

To validate the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI), which was developed for risk stratification after acute pulmonary embolism (PE), for use in Brazil.

METHODS

This was a single-center retrospective study involving patients admitted to the emergency department with acute PE. The original and simplified versions of the PESI were calculated using hospital admission data from medical records. The outcome measure was the overall 30-day mortality rate.

RESULTS

We included 123 patients. The mean age was 57 ± 17 years, and there was a predominance of females, who accounted for 60% of the cohort. There were 28 deaths, translating to an overall 30-day mortality rate of 23%. In the cluster analysis by risk class, overall 30-day mortality was 2.40% for classes I-II, compared with 20.00% for classes III-IV-V (relative risk [RR] = 5.9; 95% CI: 1.88-18.51; p = 0.0002). When we calculated overall 30-day mortality using the simplified version (0 points vs. ≥ 1 point), we found it to be 3.25% for 0 points and 19.51% for ≥ 1 point (RR = 2.38; 95% CI: 0.89-6.38; p = 0.06). Using the original version, a survival analysis showed that risk classes I and II presented similar Kaplan-Meier curves (p = 0.59), as did risk classes III, IV, and V (p = 0.25). However, the curve of the clusters based on the original version, showed significantly higher mortality in the III-IV-V classes than in the I-II classes (RR = 7.63; 95% CI: 2.29-25.21; p = 0.0001). The cluster analysis based on the original version showed a greater area under the ROC curve than did the analysis based on the simplified version (0.70; 95% CI: 0.62-0.77 vs. 0.60; 95% CI: 0.51-0.67; p = 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

The PESI adequately predicted the prognosis after acute PE in this sample of the population of Brazil. The cluster analysis based on the original version is the most appropriate analysis in this setting.

Assessment of coexisting deep vein thrombosis for risk stratification of acute pulmonary embolism

BACKGROUND

In patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE), studies have shown an association between coexisting deep vein thrombosis (DVT) and short-term prognosis. It is not known whether complete compression ultrasound testing (CCUS) improves the risk stratification of their disease beyond the recommended prognostic models.

METHODS

We included patients with normotensive acute symptomatic PE and prognosticated them with the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) risk model for PE. Subsequently, we determined the prognostic significance of coexisting DVT in patients with various ESC risk categories. The primary endpoint was a complicated course after the diagnosis of PE, defined as death from any cause, haemodynamic collapse, or adjudicated recurrent PE.

RESULTS

According to the ESC model, 37% of patients were low-risk, 56% were intermediate-low risk, and 6.7% were intermediate-high risk. CCUS demonstrated coexisting DVT in 375 (44%) patients. Among the 313 patients with low-risk PE, coexisting DVT (46%) did not show a significant increased risk of complicated course (2.8%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.8%-7.0%), compared with those without DVT (0.6%; 95% CI, 0%-3.2%), (P = 0.18). Of the 478 patients with intermediate-low risk PE, a complicated course was 14% and 6.8% for those with and without DVT, respectively (P = 0.01). Of the 57 patients that had intermediate-high risk PE, a complicated course occurred in 17% and 18% for those with and without DVT, respectively (P = 1.0).

CONCLUSIONS

In normotensive patients with PE, testing for coexisting DVT might improve risk stratification of patients at intermediate-low risk for short-term complications.

Update on the risk stratification of acute symptomatic pulmonary thromboembolism

Early mortality in patients with pulmonary thromboembolism (PTE) varies from 2% in normotensive patients to 30% in patients with cardiogenic shock. The current risk stratification for symptomatic PTE includes 4 patient groups, and the recommended therapeutic strategies are based on this stratification. Patients who have haemodynamic instability are considered at high risk. Fibrinolytic treatment is recommended for these patients. In normotensive patients, risk stratification helps differentiate between those of low risk, intermediate-low risk and intermediate-high risk. There is currently insufficient evidence on the benefit of intensive monitoring and fibrinolytic treatment in patients with intermediate-high risk. For low-risk patients, standard anticoagulation is indicated. Early discharge with outpatient management may be considered, although its benefit has still not been firmly established.

Systemic Thrombolysis for Pulmonary Embolism: Who and How

Anticoagulation has been shown to improve mortality in acute pulmonary embolism (PE). Initiation of anticoagulation should be considered when PE is strongly suspected and the bleeding risk is perceived to be low, even if acute PE has not yet been proven. Low-risk patients with acute PE are simply continued on anticoagulation. Severely ill patients with high-risk (massive) PE require aggressive therapy, and if the bleeding risk is acceptable, systemic thrombolysis should be considered. However, despite clear evidence that parenteral thrombolytic therapy leads to more rapid clot resolution than anticoagulation alone, the risk of major bleeding including intracranial bleeding is significantly higher when systemic thrombolytic therapy is administered. It has been demonstrated that right ventricular dysfunction, as well as abnormal biomarkers (troponin and brain natriuretic peptide) are associated with increased mortality in acute PE. In spite of this, intermediate-risk (submassive) PE comprises a fairly broad clinical spectrum. For several decades, clinicians and clinical trialists have worked toward a more aggressive, yet safe solution for patients with intermediate-risk PE. Standard-dose thrombolysis, low-dose systemic thrombolysis, and catheter-based therapy which includes a number of devices and techniques, with or without low-dose thrombolytic therapy, have offered potential solutions and this area has continued to evolve. On the basis of heterogeneity within the category of intermediate-risk as well as within the high-risk group of patients, we will focus on the use of systemic thrombolysis in carefully selected high- and intermediate-risk patients. In certain circumstances when the need for aggressive therapy is urgent and the bleeding risk is acceptable, this is an appropriate approach, and often the best one.

Relation between lymphocyte to monocyte ratio and short-term mortality in patients with acute pulmonary embolism

INTRODUCTION

The relationship between inflammation and mortality after acute pulmonary embolism (APE) has previously been investigated with different variables (platelet/lymphocyte ratio, etc).

OBJECTIVES

We investigated the predictive value of lymphocyte to monocyte ratio (LMR) for mortality in first 30 days after APE.

METHODS

The study population included 264 APE patients of which 230 patients were survivors, 34 patients were non-survivors.

RESULTS

LMR was significantly lower in non-survivors after APE (P < .001). Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) was higher in non-survivors after APE (P < .001). Platelet-to-lymphocyte (PLR) had no significance between both groups (P: .241). Simplified pulmonary embolism severity index and LMR were independent predictors of mortality in patients with APE (P: .008 and P: .001, respectively).

CONCLUSION

LMR as a novel marker of inflammation seemed to be an independent predictor of short-term mortality in patients with APE.

Risk stratifying emergency department patients with acute pulmonary embolism: Does the simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index perform as well as the original?

INTRODUCTION

The Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI) is a validated prognostic score to estimate the 30-day mortality of emergency department (ED) patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE). A simplified version (sPESI) was derived but has not been as well studied in the U.S. We sought to validate both indices in a community hospital setting in the U.S. and compare their performance in predicting 30-day all-cause mortality and classification of cases into low-risk and higher-risk categories.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This retrospective cohort study included adults with acute objectively confirmed PE from 1/2013 to 4/2015 across 21 community EDs. We evaluated the misclassification rate of the sPESI compared with the PESI. We assessed accuracy of both indices with regard to 30-day mortality.

RESULTS

Among 3006 cases of acute PE, the 30-day all-cause mortality rate was 4.4%. The sPESI performed as well as the PESI in identifying low-risk patients: both had similar sensitivities, negative predictive values, and negative likelihood ratios. The sPESI, however, classified a smaller proportion of patients as low risk than the PESI (27.5% vs. 41.0%), but with similar low-risk mortality rates (<1%). Compared with the PESI, the sPESI overclassified 443 low-risk patients (14.7%) as higher risk, yet their 30-day mortality was 0.7%. The sPESI underclassified 100 higher-risk patients (3.3%) as low risk who also had a low mortality rate (1.0%).

CONCLUSIONS

Both indices identified patients with PE who were at low risk for 30-day mortality. The sPESI, however, misclassified a significant number of low-mortality patients as higher risk, which could lead to unnecessary hospitalizations.

Prognostic models in acute pulmonary embolism: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

To review the evidence for existing prognostic models in acute pulmonary embolism (PE) and determine how valid and useful they are for predicting patient outcomes.

DESIGN

Systematic review and meta-analysis.

DATA SOURCES

OVID MEDLINE and EMBASE, and The Cochrane Library from inception to July 2014, and sources of grey literature.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

Studies aiming at constructing, validating, updating or studying the impact of prognostic models to predict all-cause death, PE-related death or venous thromboembolic events up to a 3-month follow-up in patients with an acute symptomatic PE.

DATA EXTRACTION

Study characteristics and study quality using prognostic criteria. Studies were selected and data extracted by 2 reviewers.

DATA ANALYSIS

Summary estimates (95% CI) for proportion of risk groups and event rates within risk groups, and accuracy.

RESULTS

We included 71 studies (44,298 patients). Among them, 17 were model construction studies specific to PE prognosis. The most validated models were the PE Severity Index (PESI) and its simplified version (sPESI). The overall 30-day mortality rate was 2.3% (1.7% to 2.9%) in the low-risk group and 11.4% (9.9% to 13.1%) in the high-risk group for PESI (9 studies), and 1.5% (0.9% to 2.5%) in the low-risk group and 10.7% (8.8% to12.9%) in the high-risk group for sPESI (11 studies). PESI has proved clinically useful in an impact study. Shifting the cut-off or using novel and updated models specifically developed for normotensive PE improves the ability for identifying patients at lower risk for early death or adverse outcome (0.5-1%) and those at higher risk (up to 20-29% of event rate).

CONCLUSIONS

We provide evidence-based information about the validity and utility of the existing prognostic models in acute PE that may be helpful for identifying patients at low risk. Novel models seem attractive for the high-risk normotensive PE but need to be externally validated then be assessed in impact studies.

Home treatment of patients with low-risk pulmonary embolism with the oral factor Xa inhibitor rivaroxaban. Rationale and design of the HoT-PE Trial

Pulmonary embolism (PE) is a potentially life-threatening acute cardiovascular syndrome. However, more than 95 % of patients are haemodynamically stable at presentation, and among them are patients at truly low risk who may qualify for immediate or early discharge. The Home Treatment of Pulmonary Embolism (HoT-PE) study is a prospective international multicentre single-arm phase 4 management (cohort) trial aiming to determine whether home treatment of acute low-risk PE with the oral factor Xa inhibitor rivaroxaban is feasible, effective, and safe. Patients with confirmed PE, who have no right ventricular dysfunction or free floating thrombi in the right atrium or ventricle, are eligible if they meet none of the exclusion criteria indicating haemodynamic instability, serious comorbidity or any condition mandating hospitalisation, or a familial/social environment unable to support home treatment. The first dose of rivaroxaban is given in hospital, and patients are discharged within 48 hours of presentation. Rivaroxaban is taken for at least three months. The primary outcome is symptomatic recurrent venous thromboembolism or PE-related death within three months of enrolment. Secondary outcomes include quality of life and patient satisfaction, and health care resource utilisation compared to existing data on standard-duration hospital treatment. HoT-PE is planned to analyse 1,050 enrolled patients, providing 80 % power to reject the null hypothesis that the recurrence rate of venous thromboembolism is >3 % with α≤0.05. If the hypothesis of HoT-PE is confirmed, early discharge and out-of-hospital treatment may become an attractive, potentially cost-saving option for a significant proportion of patients with acute PE.

Guidance for the practical management of the heparin anticoagulants in the treatment of venous thromboembolism

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a serious and often fatal medical condition with an increasing incidence. Despite the changing landscape of VTE treatment with the introduction of the new direct oral anticoagulants many uncertainties remain regarding the optimal use of traditional parenteral agents. This manuscript, initiated by the Anticoagulation Forum, provides clinical guidance based on existing guidelines and consensus expert opinion where guidelines are lacking. This specific chapter addresses the practical management of heparins including low molecular weight heparins and fondaparinux. For each anticoagulant a list of the most common practice related questions were created. Each question was addressed using a brief focused literature review followed by a multidisciplinary consensus guidance recommendation. Issues addressed included initial anticoagulant dosing recommendations, recommended baseline laboratory monitoring, managing dose adjustments, evidence to support a relationship between laboratory tests and meaningful clinical outcomes, special patient populations including extremes of weight and renal impairment, duration of necessary parenteral therapy during the transition to oral therapy, candidates for outpatient treatment where appropriate and management of over-anticoagulation and adverse effects including bleeding and heparin induced thrombocytopenia. This article concludes with a concise table of clinical management questions and guidance recommendations to provide a quick reference for the practical management of heparin, low molecular weight heparin and fondaparinux.

The relation between platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio and Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index in acute pulmonary embolism

PURPOSE

In this study, we aimed to investigate the value of the platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) for predicting disease severity based on simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (sPESI), as well as in-hospital mortality in patients with acute pulmonary embolism (APE).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Our hospital's electronic patient database was searched for the patients with ICD-9 code I26, and eligible 646 patients were included in the study.

RESULTS

Univariate logistic regression analysis showed that PLR, pulmonary artery systolic pressure, right ventricular dysfunction, D-dimer level, and white blood cell, lymphocyte, platelet and neutrophil counts were significantly correlated with a high sPESI score in patients with APE.

CONCLUSIONS

To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study in the literature showing that a high PLR is independently associated with a high risk of mortality in patients with APE.

Pulmonary embolism severity index and simplified pulmonary embolism severity index risk scores are useful to predict mortality in Japanese patients with pulmonary embolism

BACKGROUND

The Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI) and simplified PESI (sPESI) have not been fully evaluated in Japan, so the present study aimed to evaluate these risk stratification models in the prediction of mortality of affected patients in Japan.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We retrospectively analysed 302 PE patients (63.9±17.2 years of age; 42.4% male) from January 2011 to December 2012 using data from the Tokyo CCU Network. The areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curves were 0.92 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.88-0.97) for the PESI and 0.88 (95% CI: 0.77-0.98) for the sPESI.

CONCLUSIONS

Both scores can be used to predict PE mortality in Japan.

The use of oral anticoagulants for the treatment of venous thromboembolic events in an ED

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a disease spectrum that ranges from deep vein thrombosis (DVT) to pulmonary embolism (PE). Rapid diagnosis and treatment of VTE by emergency care providers are critical for decreasing patient mortality, morbidity, and the incidence of recurrent events. Recent American College of Chest Physicians guidelines recommend initial treatment with unfractionated heparin, low-molecular weight heparin, or fondaparinux overlapped with warfarin for a minimum of 5 days for the treatment of VTE in most cases. Warfarin monotherapy is thereafter continued for 3, 6, or 12 months. These guidelines were published before the approval of target-specific oral anticoagulants (TSOACs), and they have yet to be updated to reflect these new treatment options. For some patients, TSOACs, which act by directly inhibiting factor IIa or factor Xa, may provide safer, more convenient alternatives to warfarin. Their advantages include ease of use, reduced monitoring requirements, and lower bleeding risk than traditional therapy. Additionally, clinical trials have established noninferiority of TSOACs to warfarin for the prevention of recurrent VTE. These trials have demonstrated that TSOACs exhibit similar or lower bleeding rates, particularly intracranial bleeding rates compared with warfarin. Anticoagulation therapy with TSOACs may allow early discharge or outpatient management options for low-risk patients with DVT and PE. This review addresses the importance of early diagnosis and treatment of VTE, outcomes of VTE risk assessment, key efficacy and safety data from phase 3 clinical trials for the various TSOACs for the treatment of DVT and PE, and the corresponding considerations for clinical practice.

Evaluation factors of pulmonary embolism severity and prognosis

Management of pulmonary embolism (PE) is still unclear. We summarized 16 kinds of evaluation factors of PE severity and prognosis, and we analyzed the single and joint value for short-term and long-term prognosis. Among them, biomarkers such as brain natriuretic peptide or N-terminal probrain natriuretic peptide, troponin, and heart-type fatty acid-binding protein are the best indicators of PE severity and short-term prognosis. They might replace imaging detections in evaluating PE severity. But the positive predictive value of all the biomarkers is low, and we need to improve each value through joint detection. The PE severity index and simplified PE severity index are more suitable for evaluating the overall risk and long-term prognosis. They could be used as complements of indicators of the PE severity, especially in identifying low-risk group. Integrated risk stratification and strategies of management should be established based on the 2 aspects mentioned previously.

A review on state-of-the-art data regarding safe early discharge following admission for pulmonary embolism: what do we know?

BACKGROUND

Although most patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE) remain hospitalized during initial therapy, some may be suitable for partial or complete outpatient management, which may have a significant impact on healthcare costs.

HYPOTHESIS

This article reviews the state-of-the-art data regarding recognition of very-low-risk PE patients who are potentially eligible for outpatient treatment, along with the safety, management, and cost-effectiveness of this strategy. We propose an algorithm based on collected data that may be useful/practical for identifying patients truly eligible for early discharge.

METHODS

Comprehensive review of scientific data collected from the MEDLINE and Cochrane databases. Studies selected based on potential scientific interest. Qualitative information extracted regarding feasibility, safety, and cost-effectiveness of outpatient treatment, postdischarge management, and selection of truly low-risk patients.

RESULTS

Early discharge of low-risk patients seems feasible, safe, and particularly cost-effective. Several risk scores have been developed and/or tested as prediction tools for the recognition of low-risk individuals: the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI), simplified PESI, Hestia criteria, Geneva score, the Low-Risk Pulmonary Embolism Decision rule, and the Global Registry of Acute Cardiac Events, among others. PESI is the most well-validated model, offering the safest approach at the current time, especially when combined with additional parameters such as troponin I, N-terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide, and echocardiographic markers of right-ventricular dysfunction.

CONCLUSIONS

Recognition of truly low-risk patients entitled to early hospital discharge and outpatient treatment is possible with current risk-stratification schemes along with selected prognostic parameters, and it may have a colossal impact on healthcare costs.

Right atrial to left atrial area ratio on early echocardiography predicts long-term survival after acute pulmonary embolism

BACKGROUND

Current guidelines recommend that transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) should be performed for acute risk stratification following acute pulmonary embolism (PE), but it is unclear whether the initial TTE can predict long-term outcome beyond six months. We sought to assess the potential of the initial right atrial (RA) to left atrial (LA) area ratio (RA/LA ratio) on TTE to predict long-term mortality in survivors of submassive PE.

METHODS

A derivation cohort comprised a previously reported group of 35 consecutive patients with acute PE who were intensively studied by serial TTE at 1, 2, 5 days, 2, 6, 12 and 26 weeks and RA/LA ratio related to long-term outcome. The Day 1 RA/LA ratio findings were then further related to long-term outcome in 158 patients followed for 3.6 ± 2.3 years.

RESULTS

In the derivation cohort, total mortality was 28.6% (n = 10) following a mean (±standard deviation) follow-up of 4.3 ± 1.9 years. The RA/LA ratio was highly dynamic, being increased at day 1, but normalised rapidly within 2-5 days of presentation and this was most marked amongst long-term non-survivors. A RA/LA ratio > 1.0 on day 1 was independently associated with a three-fold increase in long-term mortality on Kaplan-Meier analysis. Pooled analysis of 158 patient indicated that age, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Score (PESI), troponin T, day 1 RA/LA Ratio and pulmonary arterial systolic pressure (PASP) were univariate predictors of long-term mortality. Multivariate analysis identified Day 1 RA/LA Ratio (HR 1.7 per 10% increase, p = 0.002), CCI (HR 2.2 per 1 unit increase, p = 0.004) and age (HR 1.1, p = 0.03) as the only independent predictors of long-term mortality.

CONCLUSION

A RA/LA Ratio >1.0 at presentation with acute PE was associated with a three-fold increased risk of long-term mortality. The RA/LA ratio on presentation with an acute PE is a simple, novel predictor of long-term survival.

Prognostic value of computed tomographic pulmonary angiography and the pulmonary embolism severity index in patients with acute pulmonary embolism

Pulmonary embolism is a serious and potentially fatal disorder. Pulmonary embolism risk stratification may allow early hospital discharge and outpatient treatment for low-risk patients. Also, it may prevent death by early medical intervention in high-risk groups. We evaluated objectively confirmed pulmonary embolism in 126 patients by multidetector computed tomographic pulmonary angiography at a single center from January 2008 to January 2010. The Pulmonary Severity Embolism Index (PESI), the right ventricle (RV) to left ventricle (LV) diameter (RV/LV) ratio and the vascular obstruction index (VOI) were derived from data extracted from electronic hospital records and image database. A total of six out of 96 patients (6.3%) died during follow-up. There was an association between PESI and mortality (P-value < 0.001 χ² test). PESI class I-II had a 100% negative predictive value for death in 90 days. No association was found between the RV/LV ratio, the VOI and mortality (P-value > 0.05 χ² test). Also, no association was found between the RV/LV ratio and the VOI and PESI (P-value > 0.05 χ² test). PESI is an accurate tool for pulmonary embolism prognostic stratification. It safely discriminates low-risk from high-risk patients regarding death outcome. We were unable to demonstrate an association between image scores and mortality.

Atrial fibrillation in acute pulmonary embolism: prognostic considerations

AIMS

Although it is accepted that atrial fibrillation (AF) may be both the contributing factor and the consequence of pulmonary embolism (PE), data on the prognostic role of AF in patients with acute venous thromboembolism are scarce. Our aim was to study whether AF had a prognostic role in patients with acute PE.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study involving 270 patients admitted for acute PE. Collected data: past medical history, analytic/gasometric parameters, admission ECG and echocardiogram, thoracic CT angiography. Patients followed for 6 months. An analysis was performed in order to clarify whether history of AF, irrespective of its timing, helps predict intrahospital, 1-month and 6-month all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

Patients with history of AF, irrespective of its timing (n=57, 21.4%), had higher intrahospital (22.8% vs 13.1%, p=0.052, OR 2.07, 95% CI 0.98 to 4.35), 1-month (35.1% vs 16.9%, p=0.001, OR 3.16, 95% CI 1.61 to 6.21) and 6-month (45.6% vs 17.4%, p<0.001, OR 4.67, 95% CI 2.37 to 9.21) death rates. The prognostic power of AF was independent of age, NT-proBNP values, renal function and admission blood pressure and heart rate and additive to mortality prediction ability of simplified PESI (AF: p=0.021, OR 2.31, CI 95% 1.13 to 4.69; simplified PESI: p=0.002, OR 1.47, CI 95% 1.15 to 1.89). The presence of AF at admission added prognostic value to previous history of AF in terms of 1-month and 6-month all-cause mortality prediction, although it did not increase risk for intrahospital mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

The presence of AF, irrespective of its timing, may independently predict mortality in patients with acute PE. These data should be tested and validated in prospective studies using larger cohorts.

The prognostic value of pulmonary embolism severity index in acute pulmonary embolism: a meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Prognostic assessment is important for the management of patients with acute pulmonary embolism (APE). Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI) and simple PESI (sPESI) are new emerged prognostic assessment tools for APE. The aim of this meta-analysis is to assess the accuracy of the PESI and the sPESI to predict prognostic outcomes (all-cause and PE-related mortality, serious adverse events) in APE patients, and compare between these two PESIs.

METHODS

MEDLINE and EMBASE database were searched up to June 2012 using the terms "Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index" and "pulmonary embolism". Summary odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for prognostic outcomes in low risk PESI versus high risk PESI were calculated. Summary receiver operating characteristic curve (SROC) used to estimate overall predicting accuracies of prognostic outcomes.

RESULTS

Twenty-one studies were included in this meta-analysis. The results showed low-risk PESI was significantly associated with lower all-cause mortality (OR 0.13; 95% CI 0.12 to 0.15), PE-related mortality (OR 0.09; 95% CI 0.05 to 0.17) and serious adverse events (OR 0.34; 95% CI 0.29 to 0.41), with no homogeneity across studies. In sPESI subgroup, the OR of all-cause mortality, PE-related mortality, and serious adverse events was 0.10 (95% CI 0.08 to 0.14), 0.09 (95% CI 0.03 to 0.26) and 0.40 (95% CI 0.31 to 0.51), respectively; while in PESI subgroup, the OR was 0.14 (95% CI 0.13 to 0.16), 0.09 (95% CI 0.04 to 0.21), and 0.30 (95% CI 0.23 to 0.38), respectively. For accuracy analysis, the pooled sensitivity, the pooled specificity, and the overall weighted AUC for PESI predicting all-cause mortality was 0.909 (95% CI: 0.900 to 0.916), 0.411 (95% CI: 0.407 to 0.415), and 0.7853±0.0058, respectively; for PE-related mortality, it was 0.953 (95% CI: 0.913 to 0.978), 0.374 (95% CI: 0.360 to 0.388), and 0.8218±0.0349, respectively; for serious adverse events, it was 0.821 (95% CI: 0.795 to 0.845), 0.389 (95% CI: 0.384 to 0.394), and 0.6809±0.0208, respectively. In sPESI subgroup, the AUC for predicting all-cause mortality, PE-related mortality, and serious adverse events was 0.7920±0.0117, 0.8317±0.0547, and 0.6454±0.0197, respectively. In PESI subgroup, the AUC was 0.7856±0.0075, 0.8158±0.0451, and 0.6609±0.0252, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

PESI has discriminative power to predict the short-term death and adverse outcome events in patients with acute pulmonary embolism, the PESI and the sPESI have similar accuracy, while sPESI is easier to use. However, the calibration for predicting prognosis can't be calculated from this meta-analysis, some prospective studies for accessing PESI predicting calibration can be recommended.

Prognostic value of red cell distribution width in patients with pulmonary embolism

Elevated red blood cell distribution width (RDW) has been associated with adverse outcomes of heart failure and pulmonary hypertension. A total of 702 consecutive patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE) were evaluated. There was a graded increase in mortality rate with RDW quartiles of 5.8% in quartile I (≤13.6), 9.7% in quartile II (13.7%-14.5%), 13.1% in quartile III (14.6%-16.3%), and 20% in quartile IV (>16.3%; P < .001). Patients who died had higher baseline RDW values (16.1% [11.7-28.3] vs 14.5% [10.7-32.5]; P < .001). The optimal cutoff value of RDW for predicting in-hospital mortality was ≥15%. The area under the curve of mortality for RDW was 0.649 (confidence interval [CI]: 0.584-0.715); the negative predictive value was 93%. In multivariable regression analysis, RDW remained associated with an increased odds of death (odds ratio: 1.2, 95% CI: 1.1-1.4). High RDW level was an independent predictor of short-term mortality in PE. The RDW levels may provide a potential marker to predict outcome in patients with PE.

Prospective comparison of clinical prognostic scores in elder patients with a pulmonary embolism

BACKGROUND

The Geneva Prognostic Score (GPS), the Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (PESI) and its simplified version (sPESI) are well-known clinical prognostic scores for a pulmonary embolism (PE).

OBJECTIVES

To compare the prognostic performance of these scores in elderly patients with a PE.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

In a multicenter Swiss cohort of elderly patients with venous thromboembolism, we prospectively studied 449 patients aged ≥ 65 years with a symptomatic PE. The outcome was 30-day overall mortality. We dichotomized patients as low vs. higher risk in all three scores using the following thresholds: GPS scores ≤ 2 vs. > 2, PESI risk classes I-II vs. III-V and sPESI scores 0 vs. ≥ 1. We compared 30-day mortality in low- vs. higher-risk patients and the areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (ROC).

RESULTS

Overall, 3.8% of patients (17/449) died within 30 days. The GPS classified a greater proportion of patients as low risk (92% [413/449]) than the PESI (36.3% [163/449]) and the sPESI (39.6% [178/449]) (P < 0.001 for each comparison). Low-risk patients based on the sPESI had a mortality of 0% (95% confidence interval [CI] 0-2.1%) compared with 0.6% (95% CI 0-3.4%) for low-risk patients based on the PESI and 3.4% (95% CI 1.9-5.6%) for low-risk patients based on the GPS. The areas under the ROC curves were 0.77 (95% CI 0.72-0.81), 0.76 (95% CI 0.72-0.80) and 0.71 (95% CI 0.66-0.75), respectively (P = 0.47).

CONCLUSIONS

In this cohort of elderly patients with PE, the GPS identified a higher proportion of patients as low risk but the PESI and sPESI were more accurate in predicting mortality.