Diagnostic quantification of CASS (coronary artery surgery study) clinical and exercise test results in determining presence and extent of coronary artery disease. A multivariate approach

Comparison of systemic immune-inflammation index levels in patients with isolated coronary artery ectasia versus patients with obstructive coronary artery disease and normal coronary angiogram

Coronary artery ectasia (CAE) is associated with increased risk of mortality, equivalent to that of patients with obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD). Considering the role of inflammation in the pathogenesis of CAE, we aimed to investigate whether there is an association between systemic immune-inflammation index (SII) and isolated CAE. The study population included 510 patients of which 170 patients with isolated CAE, 170 patients with obstructive CAD and 170 patients with normal coronary angiograms (NCA). The severity of CAE was determined according to the Markis classification. Patients with isolated CAE had significantly higher SII values compared to those with obstructive CAD and NCA [median 550 IQR (404-821), median 526 IQR (383-661), and median 433 IQR (330-555), respectively, p < .001]. In multivariate analysis, SII (OR 1.032, 95% CI 1.020-1.044, p = .003), male gender (OR 2.083, p = .008), eGFR (OR 0.979, p = .016), and CRP (OR 1.105, p = .005) were independent factors of isolated CAE. Moreover, in the Spearman correlation analysis, there was a moderate but significant positive correlation between SII and CRP (r = 0.379, p < .001). In conclusion, higher SII levels were independently associated with the presence of isolated CAE. This result suggests that a more severe inflammatory process may play a role in the development of this variant of CAD.

Morphology and phenotype characteristics of atherosclerotic plaque in patients with acute coronary syndrome: contemporary optical coherence tomography findings

BACKGROUND

Contemporary optical coherence tomography (OCT) findings in patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACS) are still subject of controversy. We sought to use OCT to evaluate plaque morphology and phenotype classification in patients with ACS.

METHODS

Using optical coherence tomography, culprit lesions were morphologically classified as plaque rupture, plaque erosion, calcified nodule, thin-cap fibroatheroma, thick-cap fibroatheroma (TCFA) or fibrotic, fibrocalcific or fibrolipidic plaque. Quantitative and qualitative analyses also included cholesterol crystals, neovascularization, spotty calcification and thrombus.

RESULTS

Of the 110 lesions imaged from June 2012 to April 2016, 54 (49%) were in patients with unstable angina (UA), 31 (28%) were in non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients and 25 (23%) were in STEMI patients. Compared with STEMI patients, patients with UA/non-STEMI were older and had more hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, known coronary artery disease, prior myocardial infarction and higher use of antiplatelet therapy. More patients with STEMI had lipidic arc >90% (36.6 versus 70.8%, P = 0.003), red and mixed thrombus (12.9 versus 28.0% and 7.1 versus 44.0%, respectively, all P < 0.001), plaque rupture (29.4 versus 76.0%, P < 0.001) and TCFA (57.1 versus 84.0%; P = 0.01). Predictors of plaque rupture were STEMI at presentation (odds ratio: 9.35, 95% confidence interval: 1.66-52.61, P = 0.01) and diabetes mellitus (odds ratio: 6.16, 95% confidence interval: 1.33-28.58, P = 0.02).

CONCLUSIONS

In this single-center study, the culprit lesion of patients with STEMI had more lipid, red and mixed thrombus, plaque rupture and TCFA versus patients with UA/non-STEMI. Clinical presentation may be driven by distinct pathophysiologic mechanisms in patients with ACS.

Management of multivessel coronary artery disease in patients with non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction: a complex path to precision medicine

Recent analyses suggest the incidence of acute coronary syndrome is declining in high- and middle-income countries. Despite this, overall rates of non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) continue to rise. Furthermore, NSTEMI is a greater contributor to mortality after hospital discharge than ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). Patients with NSTEMI are often older, comorbid and have a high likelihood of multivessel coronary artery disease (MVD), which is associated with worse clinical outcomes. Currently, optimal treatment strategies for MVD in NSTEMI are less well established than for STEMI or stable coronary artery disease. Specifically, in relation to percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) there is a paucity of randomized, prospective data comparing multivessel and culprit lesion-only PCI. Given the heterogeneous pathological basis for NSTEMI with MVD, an approach of complete revascularization may not be appropriate or necessary in all patients. Recognizing this, this review summarizes the limited evidence base for the interventional management of non-culprit disease in NSTEMI by comparing culprit-only and multivessel PCI strategies. We then explore how a personalized, precise approach to investigation, therapy and follow up may be achieved based on patient-, disease- and lesion-specific factors.

Is it Time to Update How Suspected Angina Is Evaluated prior to the Use of Specialized Tests Implications Based on a Systematic Review

OBJECTIVES

Appropriate use of specialized tests to assess chest pain is based classically on minimal information such as age, gender and the patient's description of pain. This approach has not been reevaluated in decades. We examined the relationship between history, examination and routine laboratory tests to identify factors warranting prospective validation as predictors of underlying coronary artery disease (CAD).

METHODS

Studies linking obstructive CAD (≥50% diameter stenosis of at least one vessel by invasive angiography or cardiac computed tomographic angiography) and elements of history, examination and laboratory tests were identified.

RESULTS

Forty-one prospectively identified papers were analyzed. Advanced age, gender and chest pain descriptors were extremely important, although the last was less so in women, in whom the presence of risk factors may be more important. Physical examination and chest X-ray were largely noncontributory. Laboratory tests were of variable utility other than to identify risk factors not already known from the history. However, biomarkers such as troponin, brain natriuretic factor and inflammatory markers were promising. The electrocardiogram was mainly important for the identification of ST-T abnormalities.

CONCLUSIONS

This review identifies the most promising factors warranting prospective validation for improving the pretest probability estimation of CAD, so appropriate use criteria for the utilization of specialized diagnostic tests can be updated and improved.

Increased plasma BMP-2 levels are associated with atherosclerosis burden and coronary calcification in type 2 diabetic patients

BACKGROUND

Although Bone morphogenetic protein-2 (BMP-2) is a known mediator of bone regeneration and vascular calcification, to date no study has investigated the relationship between BMP-2 and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and its possible role in coronary artery disease (CAD). The purpose of this study is to evaluate the relationship of BMP-2 with atherosclerosis and calcification in patients with T2DM.

METHODS

124 subjects were enrolled in this study: 29 patients with T2DM and CAD; 26 patients with T2DM and without CAD; 36 patients with CAD and without T2DMand 34 without T2DM or CAD (control group). Severity of coronary lesions was assessed using coronary angiography and intravascular ultrasound (IVUS). Plasma BMP-2 levels were quantified using a commercially available ELISA kit.

RESULTS

Compared to the control group, the mean plasma BMP-2 level was significantly higher in T2DM patients with or without CAD (20.1 ± 1.7 or 19.3 ± 1.5 pg/ml, vs 17.2 ± 3.3 pg/ml, P < 0.001). In a multivariable linear regression analysis, both T2DM and CAD were significantly and positively associated with BMP-2 (Estimate, 0.249; standard error (SE), 0.063; p <0.0001; Estimate, 0.400; SE, 0.06; p < 0.0001). Plasma BMP-2 was also strongly correlated with glycosylated hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) (Spearman ρ = -0.31; p = 0.0005). SYNTAX score was also significantly associated with BMP-2 (Spearman ρ = 0.46; p = 0.0002). Using the results from IVUS, plasma BMP-2 levels were shown to positively correlate with plaque burden (Spearman ρ = 0.38, P = 0.002) and plaque calcification (Spearman ρ =0.44, P = 0.0003) and to negatively correlate with lumen volume (Spearman ρ =0.31, P = 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study demonstrates that patients with T2DM had higher circulating levels of BMP-2 than normal controls. Plasma BMP-2 levels correlated positively with plaque burden and calcification in patients with T2DM.

Plasma Levels of microRNA-145 Are Associated with Severity of Coronary Artery Disease

Background and Objective

MicroRNAs (miRNAs) have been shown to be associated with various physiological and pathological conditions, including inflammation and cardiovascular disease, but little is known about their relationship with the presence of coronary artery disease (CAD) and disease severity.

Methods

A total of 195 consecutive subjects who underwent coronary angiography for chest pain evaluation were enrolled in this study. In CAD patients severity of coronary lesions was assessed by the number of diseased vessels and the Synergy between PCI with Taxus and Cardiac surgery score (SYNTAX score). Plasma levels of miRNA-145 were quantified by real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction test, and logarithmic transformation of miRNA-145 levels (Ln_miRNA-145) was used for analyses due to its skewed distribution.

Results

Of the 195 total subjects 167 patients were diagnosed as having CAD. Ln_miRNA-145 was significantly lower in CAD patients compared with the non-CAD group (-6.11±0.92 vs. -5.06±1.25; p <0.001). In multivariable linear regression analyses CAD was significantly associated with lower Ln_miRNA-145 (Estimate, -0.50; standard error (SE), 0.11; p <0.0001). Furthermore, among CAD patients, three-vessel disease, higher SYNTAX scores and STEMI were significantly associated with lower Ln_miRNA-145 ([Estimate, -0.40; SE, 0.07; p <0.0001]; [Estimate, -0.02, SE, 0.10; p = 0.005] and [Estimate, -0.35, SE, 0.10; p <0.001] respectively).

Conclusions

Lower plasma levels of miRNA-145 were significantly associated with the presence as well as severity of CAD. As a potential biomarker for CAD, plasma miRNA-145 may be useful in predicting CAD and its severity in patients presenting with chest pain.

Localization of culprit lesions in coronary arteries of patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarctions: relation to bifurcations and curvatures

BACKGROUND

Although culprit lesions in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) cluster in the proximal coronary arteries, their relationship to bifurcations and curvatures, where blood flow is disturbed, is unknown. We hypothesized that (a) culprit lesions localize to disturbed flow distal to bifurcations and curvatures and (b) the distribution of culprit lesions in the left (LCA) and right coronary arteries (RCA) and resulting infarct size are related to the location of bifurcations and curvatures.

METHODS

Emory University's contribution to the National Cardiovascular Data Registry was queried for STEMIs. Using quantitative coronary angiography, the distances from the vessel ostium, major bifurcations, and major curvatures to the culprit lesion were measured in 385 patients.

RESULTS

Culprit lesions were located within 20 mm of a bifurcation in 79% of patients and closer to the bifurcation in the LCA compared with the RCA (7.4 ± 7.3 vs 17.7 ± 14.8 mm, P < .0001). Of RCA culprit lesions, 45% were located within 20 mm of a major curvature. Compared with those in the RCA, culprit lesions in the LCA were located more proximally (24.4 ± 16.5 vs 44.7 ± 28.8 mm, P = .0003) and were associated with larger myocardial infarctions as assessed by peak creatine kinase-MB (208 ± 222 vs 140 ± 153 ng/dL, P = .001) and troponin I (59 ± 62 vs 40 ± 35 ng/dL, P = .0006) and with higher in-hospital mortality (5.2% vs 1.1%, P = .04).

CONCLUSIONS

In patients with STEMI, culprit lesions are frequently located immediately distal to bifurcations and in proximity to major curvatures where disturbed flow is known to occur. This supports the role of wall shear stress in the pathogenesis of STEMI.

[Cardiovascular disease in diabetic women without cardiac symptoms]

Cardiovascular disease is the main cause of cardiac death among diabetic patients. The myocardial ischemia is frequently asymptomatic, leading to late diagnosis and making prognosis worse. This is particularly true for women, for whom this diagnostic is possibility often disregarded. Appropriate screening can modify the coronary artery disease risk. The early diagnosis is highly beneficial, particularly regarding females. The decision of which non-invasive diagnostic method should be used in the initial evaluation is difficult. There are several diagnostic methods to make the preliminary investigation of coronary artery disease in diabetic women even without cardiac symptoms, but there is still no consensus about who should be investigated and when should the first cardiac evaluation start. The prevalence of the disease, as well as the cardiac risk, must be known in order to justify a broad survey, mainly in the female population.

A simple clinical score accurately predicts outcome in a community-based population undergoing stress testing

PURPOSE

Scoring systems based on clinical variables are available but not widely applied for evaluating patients with chronic coronary artery disease. The purpose of this study was to validate the prognostic value of a simple clinical scoring system, originally developed in patients referred for a nuclear stress test at a tertiary-care medical center, in a less-selected, community-based population undergoing stress testing for known or suspected coronary artery disease.

SUBJECTS AND METHODS

Over a 4-year period, 3546 residents of Olmsted County, Minn, underwent stress testing. A previously developed clinical score was calculated for every patient by assigning 1 point each for: male sex, history of myocardial infarction, typical angina, diabetes, insulin use, and each decade of age beginning at age 40. The associations between the assigned score and clinical endpoints were tested using logistic regression. A previously established cutoff point of 5 was used to establish risk groups.

RESULTS

During follow-up (7.6 +/- 2.7 years) there were 363 total deaths, 109 cardiac deaths, and 132 nonfatal myocardial infarctions. The clinical score was strongly associated with overall mortality, cardiac death, and cardiac death/myocardial infarction (P <0.001 for all 3 endpoints). Annual mortality was .6% for the 3076 patients (86%) with a score < or =4, 2.4% for 275 patients (8%) with a score = 5 and 6.2% for the 215 patients (6%) with a score > or =6.

CONCLUSIONS

This study enhances the generalizability of this simple clinical score, which was highly effective for risk-stratifying this community-based population undergoing evaluation of chronic coronary artery disease.

Utility of myocardial perfusion imaging in patients with low-risk treadmill scores

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this study was to determine whether a previously validated clinical score (CS) could identify patients with a low-risk Duke treadmill score who had a higher risk of adverse events and, therefore, in whom myocardial perfusion imaging would be valuable for risk stratification.

BACKGROUND

Current American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guidelines recommend using a standard exercise test without imaging as the initial test in patients who have an interpretable electrocardiogram and are able to exercise.

METHOD

We studied 1,461 symptomatic patients with low-risk Duke treadmill scores (> or =5) who underwent myocardial perfusion imaging. The CS was derived by assigning one point to each of the following variables: typical angina, history of myocardial infarction, diabetes, insulin use, male gender, and each decade of age over 40 years. A CS cutoff > or =5 or <5 was used to categorize patients as high risk (n = 303 [21%]) or low risk (n = 1,158 [79%]). Perfusion scans were categorized as low, intermediate, or high risk on the basis of the global stress score (GSS).

RESULTS

High-risk scans were more common in patients with a high-risk CS (26.4% vs. 9.5%, p < 0.0001). The CS and GSS were significant independent predictors of cardiac death. However, in patients with a low CS, seven-year cardiac survival was excellent, regardless of the GSS (99% for normal scans, 99% for mildly abnormal scans, and 99% for severely abnormal scans). In contrast, patients with a high CS had a lower seven-year survival rate (92%), which varied with GSS (94% for normal scans, 94% for mildly abnormal scans, and 84% for severely abnormal scans; p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

In symptomatic patients with low-risk Duke treadmill scores and low clinical risk, myocardial perfusion imaging is of limited prognostic value. In patients with low-risk Duke treadmill scores and high clinical risk, annual cardiac mortality (>1%) is not low, and myocardial perfusion imaging has independent prognostic value.

Better decisions through science: exercise testing scores

Statistical tools can be used to create scores for assisting in the diagnosis of coronary artery disease and assessing prognosis. General practitioners and internists frequently function as gatekeepers, deciding which patients must be referred to the cardiologist. Therefore, they need to use the basic tools they have available (ie, history, physical examination and the exercise test) in an optimal fashion. Scores derived from multivariable statistical techniques considering clinical and exercise data have demonstrated superior discriminating power compared with diagnosis only using the ST segment response. In addition, by stratifying patients as to probability of disease and prognosis, they provide a more practical management strategy than a response of normal or abnormal. Although computers, as part of information management systems, can calculate complicated equations and derive these scores, physicians are reluctant to trust them. However, when represented as nomograms or simple additive discrete pieces of information, scores are more readily accepted. The scores have been compared with physician judgment and have been found to estimate the presence of coronary disease and prognosis as well as expert cardiologists and often better than nonspecialists. However, the discriminating power of specific variables from the medical history and exercise test remains unclear because of inadequate study design and differences in study populations. Should expired gases be substituted for estimated METs? Should ST/heart rate index be used instead of putting ST depression and heart rate separately into the models? Should right-sided chest leads and heart rate in recovery be considered? There is a need for further evaluation of these easily obtained variables to improve the accuracy of prediction algorithms, especially in women. The portability and reliability of scores must be ensured because access to specialized care must be safeguarded. Assessment of the clinical and exercise test data and application of the newer scores can empower the clinician to assure the cardiac patient access to appropriate and cost-effective cardiologic care.

Assessing patients with possible heart disease using scores

Multivariable analysis of clinical and exercise test data has the potential to become a useful tool for assisting in the diagnosis of coronary artery disease, assessing prognosis, and reducing the cost of evaluating patients with suspected coronary disease. Since general practitioners are functioning as gatekeepers and decide which patients must be referred to the cardiologist, they need to use the basic tools they have available (i.e. history, physical examination and the exercise test), in an optimal fashion. Scores derived from multivariable statistical techniques considering clinical and exercise data have demonstrated superior discriminating power compared with simple classification of the ST response. In addition, by stratifying patients as to probability of disease and prognosis, they provide a management strategy. While computers, as part of information management systems, can run complicated equations and derive these scores, physicians are reluctant to trust them. Thus, these scores have been represented as nomograms or simple additive tables so physicians are comfortable with their application. Their results have also been compared with physician judgment and found to estimate the presence of coronary disease and prognosis as well as expert cardiologists and often better than nonspecialists. However, the discriminating power of specific variables from the medical history and exercise test remains unclear because of inadequate study design and differences in study populations. Should expired gases be substituted for estimated metabolic equivalents (METs)? Should ST/heart rate (HR) index be used instead of putting these measurements separately into the models? Should right-sided chest leads and HR in recovery be considered? There is a need for further evaluation of these routinely obtained variables to improve the accuracy of prediction algorithms especially in women. The portability and reliability of these equations must be demonstrated since access to specialised care must be safe-guarded. Hopefully, sequential assessment of the clinical and exercise test data and application of the newer generation of multivariable equations can empower the clinician to assure the cardiac patient access to appropriate and cost-effective cardiological care.

Simple treadmill score to diagnose coronary disease

OBJECTIVE

Our aim was to derive and validate a simplified treadmill score for predicting the probability of angiographically confirmed coronary artery disease (CAD).

BACKGROUND

The American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guidelines for exercise testing recommend the use of multivariable equations to enhance the diagnostic characteristics of the standard treadmill test. Most of these equations use complicated statistical techniques to provide diagnostic estimates of CAD. Simplified scores derived from such equations that require physicians only to add points have been developed for pretest estimates of disease and for prognosis. However, no simplified score has been developed specifically for the diagnosis of CAD using exercise test results.

METHODS

Consecutive patients referred for evaluation of chest pain who underwent standard treadmill testing followed by coronary angiography were studied. A logistic regression model was used to predict clinically significant (> or = 50% stenosis) CAD and then the variables and coefficients were used to derive a simplified score. The simplified score was calculated as follows: (6 x maximal heart rate code) + (5 x ST-segment depression code) + (4 x age code) + angina pectoris code + hypercholesterolemia code + diabetes code + treadmill angina index code. The simplified score had a range from 6 to 95, with < 40 designated as low probability, between 40 and 60 was intermediate probability, and > 60 was high probability for CAD.

RESULTS

A total of 1,282 male patients without a prior myocardial infarction underwent exercise treadmill testing and coronary angiography in the derivation group, and there were 476 male patients in the validation group from another institution. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (+/- SE) for the ST-segment response alone was 0.67 as compared to 0.79 +/- 0.01 for the diagnostic score (p > 0.001). The prevalence of significant disease for the men was 27% in the low-probability group, 62% in the intermediate-probability group, and 92% in the high-probability group, which was similar to the prevalence in the validation group, with 22%, 58%, and 92% in low-, intermediate-, and high-probability groups, respectively. The low-probability group had < 4% prevalence of severe disease. In both populations, 7 more patients out of 100 were correctly classified than with the use of ST-segment criteria. When used as a clinical management strategy, the score has a sensitivity of 88% and a specificity of 96%.

CONCLUSION

This simplified exercise score that estimates the probability of CAD can be easily applied without a calculator and is a useful and valid tool that can help physicians manage patients presenting with chest pain.

Do logistic regression and signal detection identify different subgroups at risk? Implications for the design of tailored interventions

Identifying subgroups of high-risk individuals can lead to the development of tailored interventions for those subgroups. This study compared two multivariate statistical methods (logistic regression and signal detection) and evaluated their ability to identify subgroups at risk. The methods identified similar risk predictors and had similar predictive accuracy in exploratory and validation samples. However, the 2 methods did not classify individuals into the same subgroups. Within subgroups, logistic regression identified individuals that were homogeneous in outcome but heterogeneous in risk predictors. In contrast, signal detection identified individuals that were homogeneous in both outcome and risk predictors. Because of the ability to identify homogeneous subgroups, signal detection may be more useful than logistic regression for designing distinct tailored interventions for subgroups of high-risk individuals.

Perioperative Risk Stratification in Patients Undergoing Noncardiac Surgery

Adverse cardiac events during noncardiac surgery are a major cause of morbidity and mortality. As the population ages, greater numbers of patients (including the elderly) are undergoing noncardiac surgical procedures; additional emphasis must therefore be placed on effective preoperative risk assessment. On a national level, the estimated annual expenditure for this process is already $3.7 billion. There is a need for both the specialist and primary care provider to execute a safe, methodical, and cost efficient screening plan. This process should identify both the patients at highest risk and also those at lowest risk. Subsequently, the emphasis should attempt to minimize the overall risk of perioperative complications. The cornerstone of risk assessment requires meticulous history taking, a thorough physical examination, and usually a chest radiograph and an ECG. Five subsequent (basic) steps for the evaluation of patients for noncardiac surgery are outlined here in assessment of clinical markers and the pa- tient's functional capacity, risk of the surgical procedure, the need for noninvasive testing, and when appropriate, the indications for invasive testing. The AHA/ACC Practice Guidelines Committee has outlined a clinical algorithm which provides a stepwise approach to guide the clinician during the decision making process. The purpose of preoperative evaluation is not to "give medical clearance" per se, but rather to evaluate the patient's current medical status, detect stress-induced ischemia in a cost effective manner, and to make recommendations about patient management throughout the entire perioperative period.

Perioperative cardiac evaluation for noncardiac surgery noninvasive cardiac testing

Prognostic risk stratification to identify perioperative and long-term cardiac risk in selected patients undergoing noncardiac surgery is part of good clinical practice. Exercise variables associated with significant increased risk include poor functional capacity (eg, <4 metabolic equivalents), marked exercise-induced ST segment shift or angina at low workloads, and inability to increase or actually decrease systolic blood pressure with progressive exercise. Approximately 40% of patients tested before peripheral vascular surgery will have an abnormal exercise electrocardiogram (ECG). The predictive value for a perioperative event, ie, death or myocardial infarction, ranges from 5% to 25% for a positive test and 90% to 95% for a negative test. Whereas exercise cardiac imaging is the modality of choice in patients with a noninterpretable exercise ECG, pharmacological stress imaging should be used in the 30% to 50% of patients who require perioperative noninvasive risk stratification and are unable to perform an adequate level of exercise to test cardiac reserve. Myocardial perfusion variables predictive of increased cardiac events include severity of the perfusion defect, number of reversible defects, extent of fixed and reversible defects, increased lung uptake of thallium-201, and marked ST segment changes associated with angina during the test. The reported sensitivity and specificity of dobutamine-induced echocardiographic wall motion abnormalities in patients with peripheral vascular disease is similar to myocardial perfusion scintigraphy, but the confidence limits are wider due to the smaller sample size in these more recent studies. In conclusion, noninvasive cardiac testing should be used selectively in patients undergoing noncardiac surgery; the results provide useful estimates of short- and long-term risk of cardiac events, and the magnitude of abnormal response on noninvasive testing should be used to formulate decisions regarding the need for coronary angiography and subsequent revascularization.

An agreement approach to predict severe angiographic coronary artery disease with clinical and exercise test data

OBJECTIVE

To demonstrate that an agreement approach to applying equations on the basis of clinical and exercise test variables is an accurate, self-calibrating, and cost-efficient method for predicting severe coronary artery disease in clinical populations.

DESIGN

Retrospective analysis of consecutive patients with complete data from exercise testing and coronary angiography referred for evaluation of possible coronary artery disease. After developing an equation in a training set, this equation and two other equations developed by other investigators were validated in a test set. The study was performed at two university-affiliated Veteran's Affairs medical centers.

PATIENTS

1080 consecutive men studied between 1985 and 1995 who had coronary angiography within 3 months of the treadmill test. The population was randomly divided into a training set of 701 patients and a test set of 379 patients. Patients with previous coronary artery bypass surgery, valvular heart disease, marked degrees of resting ST depression, and left bundle branch block were excluded.

MEASUREMENTS

Recording of clinical and exercise test data along with visual interpretation of the electrocardiogram recordings on standardized forms and abstraction of visually interpreted angiographic data from clinical catheterization reports.

RESULTS

Simple clinical and exercise test variables improved the standard application of exercise-induced ST criteria for predicting severe coronary artery disease. By setting probability thresholds for severe disease of <20% and >40% for the three prediction equations, the agreement approach divided the test set into three groups: low risk (patients with all three equations predicting <21% probability of severe coronary disease), no agreement, and high risk (all three equations with >39% probability) for severe coronary artery disease. Because the patients in the no agreement group would be sent for further testing and would eventually be correctly classified, the sensitivity of the agreement approach was 89% and the specificity was 96%. The agreement approach appeared to be unaffected by disease prevalence, missing data, variable definitions, or even angiographic criteria.

CONCLUSIONS

Requiring diagnosis of severe coronary disease to be dependent on agreement between these three equations has made them likely to function in all clinical populations. The agreement approach should be an efficient method for the evaluation of populations with varying prevalence of coronary artery disease, limiting the use of more expensive noninvasive and invasive testing to patients with a higher probability of left main or triple-vessel coronary artery disease. This approach provides a strategy that can be applied by inputting the results of basic clinical assessment into a programmable calculator or a computer to assist the practitioner in deciding when further evaluation is appropriate, thus assuring patients access to subspecialty care.

A consensus approach to diagnosing coronary artery disease based on clinical and exercise test data

OBJECTIVE

To demonstrate that a consensus approach for combining prediction equations based on clinical and exercise test variables derived from different populations can stratify patients referred for possible coronary artery disease (CAD) into low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups.

DESIGN

Retrospective analysis of consecutive patients with complete data from exercise testing and coronary angiography referred for evaluation of possible CAD. After derivation of a logistic equation in our own training set of patients, this equation, along with two other equations developed independently by other investigators, was validated in a test set. The validation strategy for the consensus approach included the following: (1) calculation of probability scores for each patient using each logistic equation independently; (2) determination of probability thresholds in the training set to divide the patients into three groups-low risk (prevalence CAD <5%), intermediate risk (5 to 70%), and high risk (>70% prevalence of CAD); (3) using agreement among at least two of three of the prediction equations to generate "consensus" for each patient; and (4) application of the consensus approach thresholds to the test set of patients.

SETTINGS

Two university-affiliated Veteran's Affairs medical centers.

PATIENTS

We studied 718 consecutive men between 1985 and 1995 who had coronary angiography within 3 months of an exercise treadmill test for suspected CAD. The population was randomly divided into a training set of 429 patients and a test set of 289 patients. Patients with previous myocardial infarction or coronary artery bypass surgery, valvular heart disease, left bundle branch block, or any Q waves present on their resting ECG were excluded from the study.

MEASUREMENTS

Recording of clinical and exercise test data along with visual interpretation of the ECG recordings on standardized forms and abstraction of visually interpreted angiographic data from clinical catheterization reports.

RESULTS

We demonstrated that by using simple clinical and exercise test variables, we could improve on the standard use of ECG criteria during exercise testing for diagnosing CAD. Using the consensus approach divided the test set into populations with low, intermediate, and high risk for CAD. Since the patients in the intermediate group would be sent for further testing and would eventually be correctly classified, the sensitivity of the consensus approach is 94% and the specificity is 92%. The consensus approach controls for varying disease prevalence, missing data, inconsistency in variable definition, and varying angiographic criterion for stenosis severity. The percent of correct diagnoses increased from the 67% for standard exercise ECG analysis and from the 80% for multivariable predictive equations alone to >90% correct diagnoses for the consensus approach.

CONCLUSIONS

The consensus approach has made population-specific logistic regression equations portable to other populations. Excellent diagnostic characteristics can be obtained using simple data and measurements. The consensus approach is best applied utilizing a programmable calculator or a computer program to simplify the process of calculating the probability of CAD using the three equations.

Incremental value of exercise electrocardiography and thallium-201 testing in men and women for the presence and extent of coronary artery disease

Our goal was to assess the incremental value of exercise testing in men and women for the diagnosis and extent of coronary artery disease. With data from one center, incremental logistic algorithms were developed and evaluated in a separate set of 865 patients from four centers. Variables included were pretest (age, sex, symptoms, diabetes, smoking, and cholesterol concentration); exercise electrocardiogram (ECG) (ST-segment depression [millimeters], ST-segment slope, peak heart rate, and change in systolic blood pressure); and thallium-201 scintigram (defect presence, reversibility, and intensity of hypoperfusion). End points were coronary disease presence (50% diameter stenosis) and extent (multivessel disease). Accuracy and incremental value were assessed by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Incremental ROC curve areas for disease presence were pretest 0.75 +/- 0.02, post-exercise ECG 0.82 +/- 0.01, and post-thallium scintigram 0.85 +/- 0.01 and for disease extent were pretest 0.71 +/- 0.02, post-exercise ECG 0.76 +/- 0.02, and post-thallium scintigram 0.78 +/- 0.02 (p < 0.005 for all increments). Incremental increases in accuracy were similar for men and women. We conclude that when multivariable algorithms derived from one center were applied to a separate group, there was a significant incremental increase in accuracy associated with exercise testing for the presence and extent of coronary disease. This increase in accuracy was similar for men and women.

Incremental evaluation of exercise capacity as an independent predictor of coronary artery disease presence and extent

To determine the independent incremental value of exercise capacity (METS) concerning the presence and extent of coronary artery disease, we analyzed data from 800 patients with suspected coronary disease who underwent both exercise testing and coronary angiography. We performed logistic regression analysis of clinical and exercise test data with an incremental design to mimic the usual flow of data acquisition. Separate analyses were performed concerning coronary disease presence (> or = 1 vessel with a > or = 50% lesion) and extent (three-vessel/left main disease). Diagnostic accuracy was determined by calculating receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve areas. When considered alone, METS was a significant predictor of both presence and extent of disease. Multivariate analysis revealed that METS was an independent predictor of disease extent but not presence. However, comparison of ROC curve areas failed to show any loss of accuracy when METS was removed from the coronary disease extent analysis. Despite the strong univariate relationship between exercise capacity and coronary disease presence and extent and the independence of exercise capacity as a predictor of coronary disease extent, the lack of an additional incremental accuracy attributed to its consideration virtually cancels its value as a diagnostic variable for assessing both coronary disease presence and extent.

Improved exercise test accuracy using discriminant function analysis and "recovery ST slope"

The objective of the study was to optimize the accuracy of the exercise test for predicting the presence of significant angiographic coronary artery disease. A retrospective analysis of stored digital exercise electrocardiographic data on 147 men who had undergone exercise testing and cardiac catheterization was performed. With significant coronary artery disease defined as > or = 70% stenosis, 95 patients had one or more vessel(s) diseased. None were receiving digoxin, had a myocardial infarction or previous coronary artery bypass graft, or exhibited left bundle branch block, left ventricular hypertrophy, Q waves, or ST depression on their resting electrocardiogram. Analysis was performed using the authors' averaging and measurement software at rest and at each 30 seconds throughout the exercise and recovery in leads II, V2, and V5. Discriminant function analysis was used to analyze pretest variables, as well as hemodynamic and electrocardiographic changes and symptoms during exercise. A discriminant function score was developed and compared to other treadmill scores. The setting was a 1,000 bed Veterans Affairs Medical Center (Long Beach, CA). Discriminant function analysis chose age, smoking status, presenting chest pain characteristics, and lead V5 ST slope in recovery to have independent power for separating those with and without coronary artery disease. A discriminant function score using these four variables was used to form a receiver operating characteristics curve (and derive receiver operating characteristics curve areas) for comparison to other exercise test methods and scores: (discriminant function score = .81; slope 3.5 minutes into recovery in lead V5 = .73; traditional ST amplitude method = .72; ST60/HR index (amplitude of ST depression 60 ms after the J point/delta heart rate) = .66; traditional ST amplitude/HR index (traditional method/delta heart rate) = .75; Hollenberg score = .68; Hollenberg areas only = .66; and ST integral = .66. Receiver operating characteristics curve analysis revealed a trend for the discriminant function score to be superior to all other measurements and scores. Recovery ST slope in lead V5 performed as well as or better than all other electrocardiographic criteria or treadmill scores except for the authors' discriminant function score.

Development and validation of a logistic regression-derived algorithm for estimating the incremental probability of coronary artery disease before and after exercise testing

OBJECTIVES

Our goals were to develop and validate a multivariate algorithm for estimating the incremental probability of the presence of coronary artery disease.

BACKGROUND

Multivariate methods, including logistic regression analysis, have been extensively applied to diagnostic exercise testing. However, few previous studies have included both an incremental design and external validation.

METHODS

A retrospective collection of clinical, exercise test and catheterization data was performed involving four U.S. referral medical centers. All patients had no prior history of coronary disease and had undergone coronary angiography < or = 3 months after exercise stress testing. An algorithm was developed in one center (590 patients with a 41% prevalence of coronary artery disease) with the use of logistic regression analysis and was validated in the other three centers (1,234 patients, 70% prevalence). The algorithm incorporated pretest variables (age, gender, symptoms, diabetes, cholesterol), exercise electrocardiographic (ECG) variables (mm of ST segment depression, ST slope, peak heart rate, metabolic equivalents [METs], exercise angina) and one thallium variable. Discrimination was measured with receiver operating characteristic curve analysis. Calibration (that is, reliability) was assessed from a comparison of probability estimates and the actual prevalence of disease.

RESULTS

The overall incremental receiver operating characteristic curve areas for the validation group were pretest, -0.738 +/- 0.016; postexercise ECG, 0.78 (SE 0.017); and postthallium, 0.82 (SE 0.016); p < 0.01 for both increments. Within the three validation institutions, the institution with a disease prevalence closest to that of the derivation institution had the best incremental receiver operating characteristic curve areas. There was a stepwise incremental improvement in calibration especially from exercise ECG to thallium testing.

CONCLUSIONS

An incremental multivariate algorithm derived in one center reliably estimated disease probability in patients from three other centers. The incremental value of testing was best demonstrated when the derivation and validation groups had a similar disease prevalence. This algorithm may be useful in decision making that relates to the diagnosis of coronary disease.

Exercise testing? Not at all

The traditional approach to the ambulatory patient with suspected or definite coronary disease is to evaluate the clinical features, to perform non-invasive tests for myocardial ischaemia, and to proceed, if necessary, to coronary angiography and coronary revascularisation. However, when the results of the exercise tests are discordant with the clinical classifications they are usually misleading as diagnostic tools. When the exercise test is used to assist prognostication, the information provided overlaps with that available to the clinician and only the presence of ST segment depression is an independent prognosticator. The amount of ST segment shift has been found to be an inferior prognosticator to the severity of disease seen on a coronary angiogram and the latter allows for appropriate decisions to be made regarding coronary angioplasty or bypass surgery. A more appropriate use of exercise testing is as a gate for coronary angiography if there is real doubt or the nature of the chest pain or as an aid in therapeutic decisions if the coronary angiography interpretation is difficult.

Prognostic value of exercise thallium scintigraphy in patients with good exercise tolerance and a normal or abnormal exercise electrocardiogram and suspected or confirmed coronary artery disease

Exercise thallium scintigraphy is widely used to assess prognosis in patients with suspected or proven coronary artery disease. The incremental prognostic value of this technique in patients who have good exercise tolerance has not been well studied. Two hundred ninety-nine patients with known or suspected coronary artery disease without prior myocardial infarction or revascularization procedure referred for exercise myocardial perfusion imaging and able to exercise to greater than or equal to stage III of the Bruce protocol were included. After a mean follow-up of 50 +/- 10 months, there were 15 cardiac events (5%). The incidence of cardiac events was 10 versus 3% (p less than 0.001) in patients with an abnormal versus normal thallium-201 scan, and 9 versus 3% (p = 0.03) for an abnormal versus normal exercise electrocardiogram. When the 185 patients with a normal exercise electrocardiogram were examined, the incidence of cardiac events was 3% (5 of 150) in patients with a normal scan versus 0% (0 of 35) in patients with an abnormal scan. In the 114 patients with an abnormal exercise electrocardiogram, an abnormal thallium-201 scan was predictive of cardiac events (18% [8 of 44] versus 3% [2 of 70]; p = 0.006). Stepwise logistic regression analysis selected an abnormal thallium-201 scan and abnormal exercise electrocardiogram, low peak exercise heart rate, and male gender as independent variables associated with a significant increased risk of cardiac events. Thus, in patients with known or suspected coronary artery disease and good exercise tolerance, the addition of thallium-201 imaging in patients with an abnormal exercise electrocardiogram provides useful prognostic information.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Logistic discriminant analysis improves diagnostic accuracy of exercise testing for coronary artery disease in women

BACKGROUND

Diagnostic accuracy of the exercise electrocardiogram in women has been shown to be limited for the detection of coronary artery disease. New diagnostic methods based on computer analysis of the exercise electrocardiogram and multivariate analysis have improved the diagnostic value of exercise testing in male subjects. The aim of the present study was to assess whether the diagnostic value of exercise testing can be enhanced in women by using multivariate analysis of exercise data.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Between 1978 and 1984, 135 infarct-free women underwent exercise testing and coronary angiography. Significant coronary artery disease was present in 41% of the patients. In this first group, maximal exercise variables were submitted to a stepwise logistic analysis. Work load, heart rate, and ST60X were selected to build a diagnostic model. The model was tested in a second group of 115 catheterized women (significant coronary artery disease in 47%) and of 76 volunteers. We compared the present model with conventional analysis of the exercise electrocardiogram, with ST changes adjusted for heart rate, and with a previously described analysis. In both groups, sensitivity was better with the present model (66% and 70%) than by conventional (68% and 59%) and by the previously described analysis (57% and 44%) without a loss of specificity (85% and 93%). Receiver-operator characteristic curves showed also a better diagnostic accuracy with the present model.

CONCLUSIONS

In women, logistic analysis of exercise variables improves the diagnostic value of exercise testing. It yields a significantly better sensitivity without a loss of specificity.

Technology assessment in the Coronary Artery Surgery Study

The majority of the 26 technology assessment articles from the Coronary Artery Surgery Study (CASS) follow the original purpose of the registry and evaluate the therapeutic capabilities of coronary artery bypass graft surgery. However, these registry data have also been used to identify risk factors for cardiovascular disease, to test diagnostic technologies, and to evaluate technological processes. Consideration of quality of life issues and the availability of cost data provide valuable additions to the continued use of the CASS for technology assessment.

Comparison of exercise performance in left main and three-vessel coronary artery disease

From a consecutive series of patients who underwent rest and exercise radionuclide angiography over several years, we retrospectively identified 34 patients with left main coronary artery disease and 103 patients with three-vessel coronary artery disease who did not have significant left main disease. The results of gated equilibrium radionuclide angiography were compared in these 2 groups. Multiple exercise hemodynamic, exercise electrocardiographic, and exercise radionuclide angiographic parameters were considered in an attempt to separate the 2 groups. The only parameter that was significantly different between the 2 groups was exercise heart rate. However, no value of the exercise heart rate could meaningfully separate the 2 groups. Despite their known difference in prognosis, patients with left main and three-vessel disease had very similar exercise performance and could not be distinguished from one another by exercise electrocardiography or exercise radionuclide angiography. The inability to distinguish these two groups is a clear limitation of noninvasive exercise modalities.

New coronary artery disease index based on exercise-induced QRS changes

Exercise-induced changes in Q, R, and S wave amplitudes have been reported to detect coronary artery disease but with low specificity, low sensitivity, or both; it was hypothesized that their incorporation into a composite index (Athens QRS score) might improve specificity and sensitivity. For this purpose 246 patients were analyzed retrospectively and 160 prospectively. All patients underwent maximal exercise testing with a standard Bruce protocol and coronary arteriography as part of the diagnostic evaluation for possible or definite coronary artery disease. The Athens QRS score was decreased as the number of obstructed coronary arteries increased (normal coronary arteries = 7.85 +/- 5.23 mm, one-vessel disease = 5.2 +/- 5.3 mm, two-vessel disease = -0.85 +/- 5.4 mm, three-vessel disease = -3.5 +/- 5.8 mm; p less than 0.0001); the score was unrelated to exercise-induced ST segment depression, and negative (less than 0) scores were always associated with coronary artery disease. An Athens QRS score of 5 mm predicted coronary artery disease with sensitivity ranging from 75% to 86% and a specificity ranging from 73% to 79%, values higher than those of the Q wave (75% and 50%, respectively), R wave (65% and 55%), and S wave (70% and 10%) and of the ST segment depression (62% and 70%). It is concluded that exercise-induced changes in the QRS complex provide a useful index not only for the diagnosis but also for the assessment of severity of coronary artery disease.

The divergent recovery of ST-segment depression and radionuclide angiographic indicators of myocardial ischemia

This study evaluated the recovery after exercise of both ST-segment depression on the exercise electrocardiogram (electrical evidence of ischemia) and exercise-induced abnormalities in wall motion or ejection fraction as detected by radionuclide angiography. The study group of 31 patients was selected to undergo prolonged electrocardiographic and radionuclide imaging after exercise because they had persistent ST-segment depression greater than 3 minutes after exercise and radionuclide angiographic evidence of ischemia at peak exercise. In 27 (87%) of the 31 patients, radionuclide evidence of ischemia recovered more quickly than the electrocardiogram. Only 15 of the 31 patients had exercise-induced radionuclide abnormalities after exercise. Compared with the 16 patients without such findings of ischemia after exercise, these 15 patients had a worse wall motion score at peak exercise (5.3 vs 3.9; p less than 0.01) and a smaller increase in systolic blood pressure with exercise (p less than 0.05) and after exercise (p less than 0.01). Radionuclide angiographic evidence of ischemia recovers more quickly after exercise than ST-segment depression. When there is radionuclide evidence of ischemia after exercise, it is associated with more severe ischemia during exercise.

The value of exercise testing in patients with coronary artery spasm

To analyze the usefulness of a single exercise test to predict the presence of fixed obstructive coronary artery disease in patients with active coronary spasm, 91 consecutive patients with angiographically proven symptomatic coronary artery spasm who had performed a symptom-limited exercise test within the week before diagnostic coronary angiography were studied. Coronary angiography revealed significant coronary obstructions in 61 patients (67%). According to the type of angina, the prevalence of significant coronary stenosis was 53% for patients with angina at rest, 68% for those with effort angina, and 92% for those with mixed angina. Exercise-induced ST segment elevation was present in eight patients (9%), ST segment depression was seen in 37 patients (41%), and no ST abnormalities in 46 (50%). There was not a significant relationship between the ST segment response to exercise and the clinical variables assessed except for coronary anatomy. Abnormal exercise test results were significantly more frequent in patients with significant coronary obstructions than in those without significant coronary occlusions (62% versus 23%; p less than 0.01). ST elevation was not useful to predict the presence of fixed coronary lesions. However, ST depression strongly suggested the presence of underlying coronary lesions with a sensitivity of 54%, a specificity of 87%, and a positive predictive value of 89%. Using this criterion, 65% of the patients were correctly classified. The results indicate that despite the functional component of ischemia in patients with coronary spasm, ST segment depression with exercise is still a highly specific sign with a high positive predictive value for the presence of significant coronary artery disease.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

A comparison of methods of analysing exercise tests for diagnosis of coronary artery disease

The diagnostic accuracy of the following methods of analysing exercise tests were evaluated: (a) the cumulative area of ST segment depression during exercise normalised for workload and heart rate (exercise score); (b) discriminant analysis of electrocardiographic exercise variables, workload, and symptoms; and (c) ST segment amplitude changes during exercise adjusted for heart rate. Three hundred and forty five men without a history of myocardial infarction were studied. One hundred and twenty three were apparently healthy. Less than half (170) had coronary artery disease. All had a normal electrocardiogram at rest. A Frank lead electrocardiogram was computer processed during symptom limited bicycle ergometry. The accuracy of the exercise score (a) was low (sensitivity 67%, specificity 90%). Discriminant analysis (b) and ST segment amplitude changes adjusted for heart rate (c) had excellent diagnostic characteristics (sensitivity 80%, specificity 90%), which were little affected by concomitant use of beta blockers. Both methods seem well suited for diagnostic application in clinical practice.

Projects and priorities in cardiovascular modeling

Studies that either 1) model the likelihood of clinical outcomes as a function of patient characteristics, or 2) examine the factors underlying a specific medical decision are discussed. Although the currently available models represent important contributions, the working group that met during the 1987 Regenstrief Conference identified several important areas for further attention. Described are discussions on ways to improve standardization, accessibility, validation and dissemination of decision models.

CASS in retrospect: lessons from the randomized cohort and registry. Coronary Artery Surgery Study

The Coronary Artery Surgery Study (CASS) was a prospective, randomized evaluation of the value of coronary artery bypass grafting compared with medical therapy for stable, mildly symptomatic coronary artery disease. Also, the CASS registry collected clinic information and follow-up data from 24,959 nonconsecutive patients undergoing cardiac catheterization from 1974 to 1979. CASS has had a major impact on current management of the coronary disease patient and represents an important contribution to the cardiovascular knowledge base. Despite the large size and valuable contributions of CASS, its findings have been widely misinterpreted, especially regarding indications for coronary artery bypass surgery. This review examines CASS from the viewpoint of its methodology and some of its many published reports. A full understanding of CASS is requisite to avoid clinical misapplication of the findings of this study.

Quantitative grading of exercise stress test for patients with coronary artery disease using multivariate discriminant analysis

A group of 111 male patients who had undergone maximal or symptom-limited maximal exercise stress testing for evaluation of coronary artery disease (CAD) were subjected to coronary angiography. Group I comprised 33 patients with normal or single-vessel disease (SVD), while 78 patients with double-vessel disease (DVD) or triple-vessel disease (TVD) formed Group II. On univariate analysis of the exercise test, the following variables were found to be of significance in discriminating between the two groups: age, exercise duration, double product (heart rate X systolic blood pressure) at peak exercise, duration of ST-segment depression, number of leads showing ST depression, ST depression of 1 mm or more, configuration of the depressed ST segment, and diastolic blood pressure response to exercise. Multivariate analysis however revealed that only the following five variables had significant discriminant power: number of leads showing ST depression, exercise duration, double product, diastolic pressure response, and ST-segment configuration. On the basis of their relative importance, a regression equation was developed to give a quantitative score to individual patients. A score of less than zero detected multivessel disease (MVD) with high specificity (94%) and sensitivity (70%), while a score of 15 or more almost excluded MVD (sensitivity 87%). The scoring system as reported here improved the exercise stress test interpretation when compared with the conventional reporting system.

Noninvasive identification of severe coronary artery disease using exercise radionuclide angiography

The ability of exercise radionuclide angiography to predict the risk of having significant left main or three vessel coronary artery disease was examined in 681 patients who underwent both radionuclide and coronary angiography. There were significant differences in multiple variables between patients with or without such disease. Logistic regression analysis identified seven variables as independently predictive of the presence of left main or three vessel disease. Using these variables, low, intermediate and high probability groups could be identified. The four most important variables--the magnitude of exercise ST segment depression, peak exercise ejection fraction, peak exercise rate-pressure product and sex of the patient--can provide practical estimates of the risk of having left main or three vessel disease. Exercise radionuclide angiography can provide a clinically useful noninvasive estimate of the risk of having significant left main or three vessel disease.

Impaired coronary vasodilator responsiveness as a cause of lactate production during pacing-induced ischemia in patients with angina pectoris and normal coronary arteries

Subgroups of patients with angina pectoris and normal coronary arteries are known to have pacing-induced lactate production and, therefore, myocardial ischemia. To examine the mechanism of this pacing-induced ischemia, the effect of incremental atrial pacing on coronary blood flow and metabolism was studied in 27 patients with angina and normal coronary arteries. Seventeen patients continued to exhibit normal lactate extraction even at heart rates up to 160 beats/min (Group 1), whereas in 10 patients (Group 2) lactate extraction changed to production at the highest pacing rate. Coronary blood flow increased in Group 1 patients by 18, 41 and 75%, respectively, as heart rate was increased by 20 beat/min increments from 100 to 160 beats/min. In contrast, coronary blood flow increased by only 8, 7 and 14%, at the three respective pacing rates in Group 2. Between the heart rates of 100 and 160 beats/min, coronary vascular resistance decreased 32% in Group 1 patients but was unchanged in Group 2 patients. There was no significant change in the ratio of myocardial O2 consumption/rate-pressure product in Group 1 patients, but this ratio decreased from 0.91 +/- 0.26 ml O2 X min-1 X (mm Hg X beats/min)-1 to 0.53 +/- 0.11 (p less than 0.05) in Group 2 patients as heart rate increased from baseline to 160 beats/min. Thus, patients with angina and normal coronary arteries who develop ischemia with pacing have a decreased coronary vasodilator response that interferes with their ability to increase myocardial oxygen supply to match the higher demand.

Prediction of the extent of coronary artery disease with the evaluation of left ventricular wall motion abnormalities during atrial pacing. A cross-sectional echocardiographic study

In patients with coronary artery disease, left ventricular performance during stress is affected by the degree of coronary stenosis. In order to verify whether there exists a relationship between the extent of wall motion abnormalities detectable during atrial pacing and the degree of coronary obstruction, 76 patients, without previous myocardial infarction, were studied. Each patient underwent cross-sectional echocardiography during transesophageal atrial pacing and exercise electrocardiography before coronary angiography. Of the 76 patients, 46 had significant coronary artery disease (stenosis greater than or equal to 75% of at least one major coronary vessel), while 30 had normal coronaries or a stenosis of less than 75%. Eighteen patients had single-, 14 had two- and 14 had three-vessel disease. For each patient a coronary score was obtained: the score used took into consideration the site, number and severity of the stenosis. This score was then correlated with the wall motion score, obtained from the analysis of 9 segments of the left ventricle. A weak correlation was obtained between wall motion score at rest and coronary score (r = -0.42), while the correlation between coronary score and the difference between wall motion score at rest and during transesophageal atrial pacing was slightly better (r = 0.53); this correlation further improved if wall motion score during pacing was considered (r = -0.63). If the patients with discordant diagnostic tests (echocardiography during transesophageal atrial pacing and exercise electrocardiography) were excluded, the correlation coefficient between coronary score and wall motion score during pacing increased even more (r = -0.77).

IN CONCLUSION

(1) analysis of wall motion of the left ventricle during atrial pacing is useful for the non-invasive evaluation of the severity of coronary disease; (2) cross-sectional echocardiography during atrial pacing, apart from being a useful diagnostic tool, is also a help in judging the degree of severity of coronary artery disease.

The changing role of the exercise electrocardiogram as a diagnostic and prognostic test for chronic ischemic heart disease

The exercise electrocardiogram has been the subject of intense research over the last 50 years, as both a diagnostic and prognostic method to assess patients with chronic ischemic heart disease. In 1986, the strengths and limitations of the technique to predict coronary and multivessel disease in clinical patient subsets are understood. The diagnostic accuracy of the test is improved by consideration of Bayesian theory, multivariate models and new non-ST segment criteria. Post-test coronary disease risk estimates are best reported in terms of a conditional probability, rather than statements of "positive" or "negative." The value of exercise testing in prognostic risk stratification is considerably enhanced by recent reports of long-term follow-up data in asymptomatic and symptomatic patients. Powerful prognostic information can be obtained when the clinical, electrocardiographic and physiologic data from the exercise test are used to formulate the post-test risk of a cardiac event, even in patients whose coronary anatomy is known. The changing role of the exercise electrocardiogram as a diagnostic and prognostic test is reviewed, with emphasis on the strengths and limitations of the procedure.

Exercise radionuclide ventriculography in evaluation of coronary artery disease

The ability of radionuclide variables obtained at rest and at peak exercise to discriminate the number of stenosed (greater than or equal to 70% luminal diameter narrowing) major coronary arteries was evaluated in 296 patients undergoing supine exercise radionuclide ventriculography. Stepwise linear discriminant analysis of the data from the first 200 patients identified a significant (p less than 0.001) discriminatory combination. Application of this function to the remaining 96 patients provided correct classification of arteriographically determined zero, one, two, and three stenosed arteries in 59%, 18%, 14%, and 60% of cases, respectively. The discriminant function classified minimal stenoses (zero or one artery) and multivessel stenoses (two or three arteries) correctly by arteriography in two thirds of cases in each group. Arteriographic presence of three stenoses was unlikely in those classified as having no stenosis, and absence of stenosis was rare in those classified as having three stenoses. Exercise radionuclide ventriculography is most helpful in identifying minimal and multivessel coronary disease rather than number of stenosed major coronary arteries.

Prospective evaluation of a clinical and exercise-test model for the prediction of left main coronary artery disease

In a multivariate logistic regression analysis of data from 508 patients, only two clinical factors, age and typicality of pain, were independently significant predictors of left main coronary artery disease. The resulting multivariate equation was prospectively applied to another 370 patients to derive pre-exercise-test (ETT) probabilities of left main coronary artery disease, and these pre-ETT probabilities were combined with literature-derived likelihood ratios for various ETT findings to derive post-ETT probabilities. This model, which can be displayed in simple graphic form, accurately predicted the probability of left main coronary artery disease when prospectively evaluated in this independent validation set of patients. The likelihood of left main coronary artery disease was 16% when the ETT increased the probability, and 4% when it decreased the probability (p less than 0.001). While 48% of patients had mid-range (5-15%) probabilities of left main coronary artery disease before the ETT, only 24% fell into this range of probabilities after the ETT (p less than 0.0001), as ETT results moved patients into higher and lower probability ranges. Thus, probability of left main coronary artery disease can be calculated from clinical and ETT data with this model. These estimated pre- and post-ETT probabilities of left main coronary artery disease may aid in the selection of patients for noninvasive testing or for cardiac catheterization.

Bayesian analysis versus discriminant function analysis: their relative utility in the diagnosis of coronary disease

Both Bayesian analysis assuming independence and discriminant function analysis have been used to estimate probabilities of coronary disease. To compare their relative accuracy, we submitted 303 subjects referred for coronary angiography to stress electrocardiography, thallium scintigraphy, and cine fluoroscopy. Severe angiographic disease was defined as at least one greater than 50% occlusion of a major vessel. Four calculations were done: (1) Bayesian analysis using literature estimates of pretest probabilities, sensitivities, and specificities was applied to the clinical and test data of a randomly selected subgroup (group I, 151 patients) to calculate posttest probabilities. (2) Bayesian analysis using literature estimates of pretest probabilities (but with sensitivities and specificities derived from the remaining 152 subjects [group II]) was applied to group I data to estimate posttest probabilities. (3) A discriminant function with logistic regression coefficients derived from the clinical and test variables of group II was used to calculate posttest probabilities of group I. (4) A discriminant function derived with the use of test results from group II and pretest probabilities from the literature was used to calculate posttest probabilities of group I. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that all four calculations could equivalently rank the disease probabilities for our patients. A goodness-of-fit analysis suggested the following relationship between the accuracies of the four calculations: (1) less than (2) approximately equal to (4) less than (3). Our results suggest that data-based discriminant functions are more accurate than literature-based Bayesian analysis assuming independence in predicting severe coronary disease based on clinical and noninvasive test results.