Heart failure prognostic models: why bother?

Prognostic Models for Mortality and Morbidity in Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction

Importance

Accurate risk prediction of morbidity and mortality in patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) may help clinicians risk stratify and inform care decisions.

Objective

To develop and validate a novel prediction model for clinical outcomes in patients with HFpEF using routinely collected variables and to compare it with a biomarker-driven approach.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Data were used from the Dapagliflozin Evaluation to Improve the Lives of Patients With Preserved Ejection Fraction Heart Failure (DELIVER) trial to derive the prediction model, and data from the Angiotensin Receptor Neprilysin Inhibition in Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction (PARAGON-HF) and the Irbesartan in Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction Study (I-PRESERVE) trials were used to validate it. The outcomes were the composite of HF hospitalization (HFH) or cardiovascular death, cardiovascular death, and all-cause death. A total of 30 baseline candidate variables were selected in a stepwise fashion using multivariable analyses to create the models. Data were analyzed from January 2023 to June 2023.

Exposures

Models to estimate the 1-year and 2-year risk of cardiovascular death or hospitalization for heart failure, cardiovascular death, and all-cause death.

Results

Data from 6263 individuals in the DELIVER trial were used to derive the prediction model and data from 4796 individuals in the PARAGON-HF trial and 4128 individuals in the I-PRESERVE trial were used to validate it. The final prediction model for the composite outcome included 11 variables: N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) level, HFH within the past 6 months, creatinine level, diabetes, geographic region, HF duration, treatment with a sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, transient ischemic attack/stroke, any previous HFH, and heart rate. This model showed good discrimination (C statistic at 1 year, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.71-0.75) in both validation cohorts (C statistic at 1 year, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.69-0.74 in PARAGON-HF and 0.75; 95% CI, 0.73-0.78 in I-PRESERVE) and calibration. The model showed similar discrimination to a biomarker-driven model including high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T and significantly better discrimination than the Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic (MAGGIC) risk score (C statistic at 1 year, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.58-0.63; delta C statistic, 0.13; 95% CI, 0.10-0.15; P < .001) and NT-proBNP level alone (C statistic at 1 year, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.64-0.68; delta C statistic, 0.07; 95% CI, 0.05-0.08; P < .001). Models derived for the prediction of all-cause and cardiovascular death also performed well. An online calculator was created to allow calculation of an individual's risk.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this prognostic study, a robust prediction model for clinical outcomes in HFpEF was developed and validated using routinely collected variables. The model performed better than NT-proBNP level alone. The model may help clinicians to identify high-risk patients and guide treatment decisions in HFpEF.

Usefulness of Age, Creatinine and Ejection Fraction - Modification of Diet in Renal Disease Score for Predicting Survival in Patients with Heart Failure

BACKGROUND

Central Illustration: Usefulness of Age, Creatinine and Ejection Fraction - Modification of Diet in Renal Disease Score for Predicting Survival in Patients with Heart Failure Summary of the study design and key findings. ACEF: Age, creatinine and ejection fraction, MDRD: Modified Diet in Renal Disease. While many risk models have been developed to predict prognosis in heart failure (HF), these models are rarely useful for the clinical practitioner as they include multiple variables that might be time-consuming to obtain, they are usually difficult to calculate, and they may suffer from statistical overfitting.

OBJECTIVES

To investigate whether a simpler model, namely the ACEF-MDRD score, could be used for predicting one-year mortality in HF patients.

METHODS

748 cases within the SELFIE-HF registry had complete data to calculate the ACEF-MDRD score. Patients were grouped into tertiles for analyses. For all tests, a p-value <0.05 was accepted as significant.

RESULTS

Significantly more patients within the ACEF-MDRD high tertile (30.0%) died within one year, as compared to other tertiles (10.8% and 16.1%, respectively, for ACEF-MDRD low and ACEF-MDRD med , p<0.001 for both comparisons). There was a stepwise decrease in one-year survival as the ACEF-MDRD score increased (log-rank p<0.001). ACEF-MDRD was an independent predictor of survival after adjusting for other variables (OR: 1.14, 95%CI:1.04 - 1.24, p=0.006). ACEF-MDRD score offered similar accuracy to the GWTG-HF score for predicting one-year mortality (p=0.14).

CONCLUSIONS

ACEF-MDRD is a predictor of mortality in patients with HF, and its usefulness is comparable to similar yet more complicated models.

Specialist Palliative Care Referral Practices Among Oncologists, Cardiologists, Respirologists: A Comparison of National Survey Studies

CONTEXT

Although patients with nonmalignant diseases have palliative care needs similar to those of cancer patients, they are less likely to receive specialist palliative care (SPC). Referral practices of oncologists, cardiologists, and respirologists could provide insight into reasons for this difference.

OBJECTIVES

We compared referral practices to SPC among cardiologists, respirologists, and oncologists, discerned from surveys (the Canadian Palliative Cardiology/Respirology/Oncology Surveys).

METHODS

Descriptive comparison of survey studies; multivariable linear regression analysis of association between specialty and referral frequency. Surveys for each specialty were disseminated to physicians across Canada in 2010 (oncologists) and 2018 (cardiologists, respirologists).

RESULTS

The combined response rate of the surveys was 60.9% (1568/2574): 603 oncologists, 534 cardiologists, and 431 respirologists. Perceived availability of SPC services was higher for cancer than for noncancer patients. Oncologists were more likely to make a referral to SPC for a symptomatic patient with a prognosis of

CONCLUSION

For cardiologists and respirologists in 2018, perceived availability of SPC services was poorer, timing of referral later, and frequency of referral lower than among oncologists in 2010. Further research is needed to identify reasons for differences in referral practices and to develop interventions to overcome them.

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Key Words

• Palliative care
• cancer
• chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
• health care disparity
• heart failure
• referral

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MESH Headings

• Humans
• Palliative Care
• Cardiologists
• Attitude of Health Personnel
• Practice Patterns, Physicians'
• Canada
• Neoplasms/therapy
• Referral and Consultation
• Oncologists

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Affiliation(s)

Michael Bonares Division of Palliative Medicine (M.B.), Sunnybrook Health Sciences Centre, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; Division of Palliative Medicine (M.B., C.Z.), Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
Lisa W Le Department of Biostatistics (L.W.L.), Princess Margaret Cancer Centre, University Health Network, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Camilla Zimmermann Division of Palliative Medicine (M.B., C.Z.), Department of Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; Department of Supportive Care (C.Z., K.W.), University Health Network, Toronto, Ontario, Canada
Kristen Wentlandt Department of Supportive Care (C.Z., K.W.), University Health Network, Toronto, Ontario, Canada; Division of Palliative Care (K.W.), Department of Community and Family Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada

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The cardiosplenic axis: the prognostic role of the spleen in heart failure

Despite the number of available methods to predict prognosis in patients with heart failure, prognosis remains poor, likely because of marked patient heterogeneity and varied heart failure etiologies. Thus, identification of novel prognostic indicators to stratify risk in patients with heart failure is of paramount importance. The spleen is emerging as a potential novel prognostic indicator for heart failure. In this article, we provide an overview of the current prognostic tools used for heart failure. We then introduce the spleen as a potential novel prognostic indicator, before outlining the structure and function of the spleen and introducing the concept of the cardiosplenic axis. This is followed by a focused discussion on the function of the spleen in the immune response and in hemodynamics, as well as a review of what is known about the usefulness of the spleen as an indicator of heart failure. Expert insight into the most effective spleen-related measurement indices for the prognostication of patients with heart failure is provided, and suggestions on how these could be measured in clinical practice are considered. In future, studies in humans will be required to draw definitive links between specific splenic measurements and different heart failure manifestations, as well as to determine whether splenic prognostic measurements differ between heart failure classes and etiologies. These contributions will provide a step forward in our understanding of the usefulness of the spleen as a prognostic predictor in heart failure.

Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction Risk Index Predicts 1-Year Mortality in Patients with Heart Failure: An Analysis of the SELFIE-TR Study

OBJECTIVE

Predicting outcomes is an essential part of evaluation of patients with heart failure (HF). While there are multiple individual laboratory and imaging variables as well as risk scores available for this purpose, they are seldom useful during the initial evaluation. In this analysis, we aimed to elucidate the predictive usefulness of Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction Risk Index (TIMI-RI), a simple index calculated at the bedside with three commonly available variables, using data from a multicenter HF registry.

SUBJECTS AND METHODS

A total of 728 patients from 23 centers were included in this analysis. Data on hospitalizations and mortality were collected by direct interviews, phone calls, and electronic databases. TIMI-RI was calculated as heart rate × (age/10)2/systolic pressure. Patients were divided into three equal tertiles to perform analyses.

RESULTS

Rehospitalization for HF was significantly higher in patients within the 3rd tertile, and 33.5% of patients within the 3rd tertile had died within 1-year follow-up as compared to 14.5% of patients within the 1st tertile and 15.6% of patients within the 2nd tertile (p < 0.001, log-rank p < 0.001 for pairwise comparisons). The association between TIMI-RI and mortality remained significant (OR: 1.74, 95% CI: 1.05-2.86, p = 0.036) after adjustment for other variables. A TIMI-RI higher than 33 had a negative predictive value of 84.8% and a positive predictive value of 33.8% for prediction of 1-year mortality.

CONCLUSION

TIMI-RI is a simple index that predicts 1-year mortality in patients with HF; it could be useful for rapid evaluation and triage of HF patients at the time of initial contact.

Systematic review of academic bullying in medical settings: dynamics and consequences

PURPOSE

To characterise the dynamics and consequences of bullying in academic medical settings, report factors that promote academic bullying and describe potential interventions.

DESIGN

Systematic review.

DATA SOURCES

We searched EMBASE and PsycINFO for articles published between 1 January 1999 and 7 February 2021.

STUDY SELECTION

We included studies conducted in academic medical settings in which victims were consultants or trainees. Studies had to describe bullying behaviours; the perpetrators or victims; barriers or facilitators; impact or interventions. Data were assessed independently by two reviewers.

RESULTS

We included 68 studies representing 82 349 respondents. Studies described academic bullying as the abuse of authority that impeded the education or career of the victim through punishing behaviours that included overwork, destabilisation and isolation in academic settings. Among 35 779 individuals who responded about bullying patterns in 28 studies, the most commonly described (38.2% respondents) was overwork. Among 24 894 individuals in 33 studies who reported the impact, the most common was psychological distress (39.1% respondents). Consultants were the most common bullies identified (53.6% of 15 868 respondents in 31 studies). Among demographic groups, men were identified as the most common perpetrators (67.2% of 4722 respondents in 5 studies) and women the most common victims (56.2% of 15 246 respondents in 27 studies). Only a minority of victims (28.9% of 9410 victims in 25 studies) reported the bullying, and most (57.5%) did not perceive a positive outcome. Facilitators of bullying included lack of enforcement of institutional policies (reported in 13 studies), hierarchical power structures (7 studies) and normalisation of bullying (10 studies). Studies testing the effectiveness of anti-bullying interventions had a high risk of bias.

CONCLUSIONS

Academic bullying commonly involved overwork, had a negative impact on well-being and was not typically reported. Perpetrators were most commonly consultants and men across career stages, and victims were commonly women. Methodologically robust trials of anti-bullying interventions are needed.

LIMITATIONS

Most studies (40 of 68) had at least a moderate risk of bias. All interventions were tested in uncontrolled before-after studies.

Performance of a cardiac lipid panel compared to four prognostic scores in chronic heart failure

The cardiac lipid panel (CLP) is a novel panel of metabolomic biomarkers that has previously shown to improve the diagnostic and prognostic value for CHF patients. Several prognostic scores have been developed for cardiovascular disease risk, but their use is limited to specific populations and precision is still inadequate. We compared a risk score using the CLP plus NT-proBNP to four commonly used risk scores: The Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM), Framingham risk score (FRS), Barcelona bio-HF (BCN Bio-HF) and Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure (MAGGIC) score. We included 280 elderly CHF patients from the Cardiac Insufficiency Bisoprolol Study in Elderly trial. Cox Regression and hierarchical cluster analysis was performed. Integrated area under the curves (IAUC) was used as criterium for comparison. The mean (SD) follow-up period was 81 (33) months, and 95 (34%) subjects met the primary endpoint. The IAUC for FRS was 0.53, SHFM 0.61, BCN Bio-HF 0.72, MAGGIC 0.68, and CLP 0.78. Subjects were partitioned into three risk clusters: low, moderate, high with the CLP score showing the best ability to group patients into their respective risk cluster. A risk score composed of a novel panel of metabolite biomarkers plus NT-proBNP outperformed other common prognostic scores in predicting 10-year cardiovascular death in elderly ambulatory CHF patients. This approach could improve the clinical risk assessment of CHF patients.

2021 ACC/AHA Key Data Elements and Definitions for Heart Failure: A Report of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Task Force on Clinical Data Standards (Writing Committee to Develop Clinical Data Standards for Heart Failure)

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text.

Conception and bicentric validation of the proSCANNED score, a simplified bedside prognostic score for Heart Failure patients

A simple and accurate prognostic tool for Heart Failure (HF) patients is critical to improve follow-up. Different risk scores are accurate but with limited clinical applicability. The current study aims to derive and validate a simple predictive tool for HF prognosis. French outpatients with stable HF of two university hospitals were included in the derivation (N = 134) or in the validation (N = 274) sample and followed up for a median of 23 months. Potential predictors were variables with known association with mortality and easily available. The proSCANNED risk score was derived using a parametric survival model on complete case data; it includes 8 binary variables and its values are 0–8. In the validation sample, the ability of the score to discriminate the 1-year vital status was moderate (AUC = 0.71, IC95% = [0.64–0.71]). However, the stratification of the score in three groups showed a good calibration for patients in the low- and medium-risk risk group. The proSCANNED score is an easy-to-use tool in clinical practice with a good discrimination, stability, and calibration sufficient to improve the medical care of patients. Other follow up studies are necessary to assess score applicability in larger populations, and its impact.

Apelin Improves Prognostic Value of HFSS (Heart Failure Survival Score) and MAGGIC (Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure) Scales in Ambulatory Patients with End-Stage Heart Failure

This prospective study aimed to determine the effect of adding apelin to the MAGGIC (Meta-Analysis Global Group In Chronic Heart Failure) and HFSS (Heart Failure Survival Score) scales for predicting one-year mortality in 240 ambulatory patients accepted for heart transplantation (HT) between 2015-2017. The study also investigated whether the combination of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) with MAGGIC or HFSS improves the ability of these scales to effectively separate one-year survivors from non-survivors on the HT waiting list. The median age of the patients was 58.0 (51.50.0-64.0) years and 212 (88.3%) of them were male. Within a one year follow-up, 75 (31.2%) patients died. The area under the curves (AUC) for baseline parameters was as follows-0.7350 for HFSS, 0.7230 for MAGGIC, 0.7992 for apelin and 0.7028 for NT-proBNP. The HFSS-apelin score generated excellent power to predict the one-year survival, with the AUC of 0.8633 and a high sensitivity and specificity (80% and 78%, respectively). The predictive accuracy of MAGGIC-apelin score was also excellent (AUC: 0.8523, sensitivity of 75%, specificity of 79%). The addition of NT-proBNP to the HFSS model slightly improved the predictive power of this scale (AUC_{HFFSS-NT-proBNP}: 0.7665, sensitivity 83%, specificity 60%), while it did not affect the prognostic strength of MAGGIC (AUC_{MAGGIC-NT-proBNP}: 0.738, sensitivity 71%, specificity 69%). In conclusion, the addition of apelin to the HFSS and MAGGIC models significantly improved their ability to predict the one-year survival in patients with advanced HF. The MAGGIC-apelin and HFSS-apelin scores provide simple and powerful methods for risk stratification in end-stage HF patients. NT-proBNP slightly improved the prognostic power of HFSS, while it did not affect the predictive power of MAGGIC.

External Validation of the Model of Thromboembolic Risk in Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy Patients

BACKGROUND

Recently, a new risk model was developed, namely hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) risk for cerebrovascular accident, for estimating the risk of thromboembolism (TE) in patients with HCM. There is no study about the external validation of this model.

METHODS

We evaluated the performance of the model for predicting TE in 417 patients with HCM recruited between 2008 and 2016, from a tertiary referral centre. The primary end point was 5-year TE, and the risk was calculated using the model formula.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 3.5 years, 25 (6.0%) patients reached the TE end point, and 22 (5.3%) patients within the first 5 years. Within a 5-year time frame, the model showed a possibly helpful discrimination for TE (C-index for the whole cohort: 0.67, C-index for the subgroup without atrial fibrillation: 0.67) relative to its original C-index of 0.75. However, the calibration was not perfect, which suggested that there was an underestimation of 5-year TE risk in the whole cohort and different risk groups.

CONCLUSIONS

HCM risk for cerebrovascular accident demonstrated a possibly helpful discrimination for TE when applied in a new set of patients with HCM. However, the accurate estimation of absolute risk should be explored in future studies.

PROGNOSTIC VALUE OF COGNITIVE TESTS AND THEIR COMBINATION IN PATIENTS WITH CHRONIC HEART FAILURE AND REDUCED LEFT VENTRICULAR EJECTION FRACTION

Impaired cognitive function (CF) is common among patients with CHF and is an additional factor impairing the quality of life, adherence to treatment, and hence the clinical prognosis in this category of patients. The aim of this work was to study the prognostic significance of individual cognitive tests, as well as their combination in patients with CHF with a reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LV EF). Materials and methods. The study was conducted in the Department of Heart Failure of National Scientific Center "M.D. Strazhesko Institute of Cardiology" National Academy of Medical Sciences of Ukraine, in the period from 01/01/2016 to 04/27/2018. A total of 124 patients with CHF between the ages of 18 and 75 years, II-IV functional classes by NYHA were examined. The cognitive function was assessed using the Schulte test, Mini-Mental State Examination scale (MMSE); HADS scale. Cognitive dysfunction (CD) was considered as MMSE ≤26 points. To construct the survival curves and the onset of the combined critical event (death or hospitalization), the Kaplan – Meier method was used, the significance of the differences between the curves was determined using the log-rank criterion. Differences were considered statistically significant at p <0.05. Results. The MMSE scale was highly informative regarding the prediction of survival and the onset of a combined critical event (death or hospitalization) in patients with CHF and reduced LVEF even after correction of the compared groups by age and functional class according to NYHA (p=0.025 and p=0.049, respectively). Using the same sample, Schulte showed low prognostic significance regarding survival and reliable informativeness regarding the onset of the combined critical event, which, however, was leveled after correcting the compared samples by age and functional class NYHA (p=0.798 and p=0.240, respectively). The inclusion in the prognostic algorithm of estimating the sum of points on the HADS depression scale allowed increasing the degree of reliability of differences between the compared groups of patients with CD and without CD in terms of both long-term survival and the onset of a combined critical event (death or hospitalization) (p=0.006 and p=0.001 respectively). Conclusions. The MMSE scale is informative regarding the prediction of survival and the onset of a combined critical event in patients with CHF and reduced LVEF. Schulte's test does not have the prognostic information indicated above, however, the inclusion in the algorithm of the sum of points on the HADS depression scale allows to increase the degree of statistical confidence in the compared groups.

Performance of Prognostic Risk Scores in Chronic Heart Failure Patients Enrolled in the European Society of Cardiology Heart Failure Long-Term Registry

OBJECTIVES

This study compared the performance of major heart failure (HF) risk models in predicting mortality and examined their utilization using data from a contemporary multinational registry.

BACKGROUND

Several prognostic risk scores have been developed for ambulatory HF patients, but their precision is still inadequate and their use limited.

METHODS

This registry enrolled patients with HF seen in participating European centers between May 2011 and April 2013. The following scores designed to estimate 1- to 2-year all-cause mortality were calculated in each participant: CHARM (Candesartan in Heart Failure-Assessment of Reduction in Mortality), GISSI-HF (Gruppo Italiano per lo Studio della Streptochinasi nell'Infarto Miocardico-Heart Failure), MAGGIC (Meta-analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure), and SHFM (Seattle Heart Failure Model). Patients with hospitalized HF (n = 6,920) and ambulatory HF patients missing any variable needed to estimate each score (n = 3,267) were excluded, leaving a final sample of 6,161 patients.

RESULTS

At 1-year follow-up, 5,653 of 6,161 patients (91.8%) were alive. The observed-to-predicted survival ratios (CHARM: 1.10, GISSI-HF: 1.08, MAGGIC: 1.03, and SHFM: 0.98) suggested some overestimation of mortality by all scores except the SHFM. Overprediction occurred steadily across levels of risk using both the CHARM and the GISSI-HF, whereas the SHFM underpredicted mortality in all risk groups except the highest. The MAGGIC showed the best overall accuracy (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.743), similar to the GISSI-HF (AUC = 0.739; p = 0.419) but better than the CHARM (AUC = 0.729; p = 0.068) and particularly better than the SHFM (AUC = 0.714; p = 0.018). Less than 1% of patients received a prognostic estimate from their enrolling physician.

CONCLUSIONS

Performance of prognostic risk scores is still limited and physicians are reluctant to use them in daily practice. The need for contemporary, more precise prognostic tools should be considered.

Risk Prediction Models for Incident Heart Failure: A Systematic Review of Methodology and Model Performance

BACKGROUND

Numerous models predicting the risk of incident heart failure (HF) have been developed; however, evidence of their methodological rigor and reporting remains unclear. This study critically appraises the methods underpinning incident HF risk prediction models.

METHODS AND RESULTS

EMBASE and PubMed were searched for articles published between 1990 and June 2016 that reported at least 1 multivariable model for prediction of HF. Model development information, including study design, variable coding, missing data, and predictor selection, was extracted. Nineteen studies reporting 40 risk prediction models were included. Existing models have acceptable discriminative ability (C-statistics > 0.70), although only 6 models were externally validated. Candidate variable selection was based on statistical significance from a univariate screening in 11 models, whereas it was unclear in 12 models. Continuous predictors were retained in 16 models, whereas it was unclear how continuous variables were handled in 16 models. Missing values were excluded in 19 of 23 models that reported missing data, and the number of events per variable was < 10 in 13 models. Only 2 models presented recommended regression equations. There was significant heterogeneity in discriminative ability of models with respect to age (P < .001) and sample size (P = .007).

CONCLUSIONS

There is an abundance of HF risk prediction models that had sufficient discriminative ability, although few are externally validated. Methods not recommended for the conduct and reporting of risk prediction modeling were frequently used, and resulting algorithms should be applied with caution.

Cardiac Imaging in Heart Failure with Comorbidities

Imaging modalities stand at the frontiers for progress in congestive heart failure (CHF) screening, risk stratification and monitoring. Advancements in echocardiography (ECHO) and Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) have allowed for improved tissue characterizations, cardiac motion analysis, and cardiac performance analysis under stress. Common cardiac comorbidities such as hypertension, metabolic syndromes and chronic renal failure contribute to cardiac remodeling, sharing similar pathophysiological mechanisms starting with interstitial changes, structural changes and finally clinical CHF. These imaging techniques can potentially detect changes earlier. Such information could have clinical benefits for screening, planning preventive therapies and risk stratifying patients. Imaging reports have often focused on traditional measures without factoring these novel parameters. This review is aimed at providing a synopsis on how we can use this information to assess and monitor improvements for CHF with comorbidities.

How Does Cardiovascular Disease First Present in Women and Men? Incidence of 12 Cardiovascular Diseases in a Contemporary Cohort of 1,937,360 People

BACKGROUND

Given the recent declines in heart attack and stroke incidence, it is unclear how women and men differ in first lifetime presentations of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). We compared the incidence of 12 cardiac, cerebrovascular, and peripheral vascular diseases in women and men at different ages.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We studied 1 937 360 people, aged ≥ 30 years and free from diagnosed CVD at baseline (51% women), using linked electronic health records covering primary care, hospital admissions, acute coronary syndrome registry, and mortality (Cardiovascular Research Using LInked Bespoke Studies and Electronic Records [CALIBER] research platform). During 6 years median follow-up between 1997 and 2010, 114 859 people experienced an incident cardiovascular diagnosis, the majority (66%) of which were neither myocardial infarction nor ischemic stroke. Associations of male sex with initial diagnoses of CVD, however, varied from strong (age-adjusted hazard ratios, 3.6-5.0) for abdominal aortic aneurysm, myocardial infarction, and unheralded coronary death (particularly >60 years), through modest (hazard ratio, 1.5-2.0) for stable angina, ischemic stroke, peripheral arterial disease, heart failure, and cardiac arrest, to weak (hazard ratio <1.5) for transient ischemic attack, intracerebral hemorrhage, and unstable angina, and inverse (0.69) for subarachnoid hemorrhage (all P<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

The majority of initial presentations of CVD are neither myocardial infarction nor ischemic stroke, yet most primary prevention studies focus on these presentations. Sex has differing associations with different CVDs, with implications for risk prediction and management strategies.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01164371.

Incremental and independent value of cardiopulmonary exercise test measures and the Seattle Heart Failure Model for prediction of risk in patients with heart failure

BACKGROUND

Multivariable risk scores and exercise measures are well-validated risk prediction methods. Combining information from a functional evaluation and a risk model may improve accuracy of risk predictions. We analyzed whether adding exercise measures to the Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM) improves risk prediction accuracy in systolic heart failure.

METHODS

We used a sample of patients from the Heart Failure and A Controlled Trial Investigating Outcomes of Exercise TraiNing (HF-ACTION) study (http://www.clinicaltrials.gov; unique identifier: NCT00047437) to examine the addition of peak oxygen consumption, expired volume per unit time/volume of carbon dioxide slope, 6-minute walk distance, or cardiopulmonary exercise duration to the SHFM. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to test the association between the combined end point (death, left ventricular assist device, or cardiac transplantation) and the addition of exercise variables to the SHFM.

RESULTS

The sample included 2,152 patients. The SHFM and all exercise measures were associated with events (all p < 0.0001) in proportional hazards models. There was statistically significant improvement in risk estimation when exercise measures were added to the SHFM. However, the improvement in the C index for the addition of peak volume of oxygen consumption (+0.01), expired volume per unit time/volume of carbon dioxide slope (+0.02), 6-minute walk distance (-0.001), and cardiopulmonary exercise duration (+0.001) to the SHFM was small or slightly worse than the SHFM alone. Changes in risk assignment with the addition of exercise variables were minimal for patients above or below a 15% 1-year mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Exercise performance measures and the SHFM are independently useful for predicting risk in systolic heart failure. Adding cardiopulmonary exercise testing measures and 6MWD to the SHFM offers only minimal improvement in risk reassignment at clinically meaningful cut points.

Utility of the Seattle Heart Failure Model in patients with cardiac resynchronization therapy and implantable cardioverter defibrillator referred for heart transplantation

BACKGROUND

The Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM) predicts survival in heart failure but may underestimate risk in severe heart failure, and the performance has not been evaluated explicitly in patients with cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) and/or implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD) referred for heart transplantation. We aimed to assess the utility of the SHFM by validation in patients with CRT and/or ICD referred for heart transplantation.

METHODS

We assessed the SHFM performance in 382 patients with CRT and/or ICD referred for heart transplantation. Outcome was survival free from urgent transplantation or left ventricular assist device. Model discrimination and calibration were assessed graphically and by formal tests.

RESULTS

During a mean follow-up of 2.3 years, 195 events occurred. One-, 2-, and 3-year observed event-free survival was 77%, 62%, and 52%, and the observed to predicted event-free survival ratio was 0.89, 0.80, and 0.76. Calibration plots demonstrated results deviating from the ideal calibration line at 1, 2, and 3 years. The SHFM score adequately assigned patients in discrete risk strata, according to Kaplan-Meier estimated survival. Time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve analyses demonstrated good discrimination overall, which was slightly better for 1-year (area under the curve [AUC] 0.774) compared with 2-year (AUC 0.742) and 3-year (AUC 0.728) event-free survival.

CONCLUSIONS

The SHFM has good discrimination but underestimates risk of adverse outcomes in patients with CRT and/or ICD referred for heart transplantation. The SHFM may be used to assess relative risk and changes over time, but when assessing absolute percentage of event-free survival, the overestimation of event-free survival should be accounted for.

Atrial fibrillation in decompensated heart failure: associated factors and in-hospital outcome

Background

Studies on atrial fibrillation (AF) in decompensated heart failure (DHF) are scarce in Brazil.

Objectives

To determine AF prevalence, its types and associated factors in patients hospitalized due to DHF; to assess their thromboembolic risk profile and anticoagulation rate; and to assess the impact of AF on in-hospital mortality and hospital length of stay.

Methods

Retrospective, observational, cross-sectional study of incident cases including 659 consecutive hospitalizations due to DHF, from 01/01/2006 to 12/31/2011. The thromboembolic risk was assessed by using CHADSVASc score. On univariate analysis, the chi-square, Student t and Mann Whitney tests were used. On multivariate analysis, logistic regression was used.

Results

The prevalence of AF was 40%, and the permanent type predominated (73.5%). On multivariate model, AF associated with advanced age (p < 0.0001), non-ischemic etiology (p = 0.02), right ventricular dysfunction (p = 0.03), lower systolic blood pressure (SBP) (p = 0.02), higher ejection fraction (EF) (p < 0.0001) and enlarged left atrium (LA) (p < 0.0001). The median CHADSVASc score was 4, and 90% of the cases had it ≥ 2. The anticoagulation rate was 52.8% on admission and 66.8% on discharge, being lower for higher scores. The group with AF had higher in-hospital mortality (11.0% versus 8.1%, p = 0.21) and longer hospital length of stay (20.5 ± 16 versus 16.3 ± 12, p = 0.001).

Conclusions

Atrial fibrillation is frequent in DHF, the most prevalent type being permanent AF. Atrial fibrillation is associated with more advanced age, non-ischemic etiology, right ventricular dysfunction, lower SBP, higher EF and enlarged LA. Despite the high thromboembolic risk profile, anticoagulation is underutilized. The presence of AF is associated with longer hospital length of stay and high mortality.

Serum albumin changes and multivariate dynamic risk modelling in chronic heart failure

BACKGROUND

We examined the prognostic utility of rate of change in serum albumin over time in chronic heart failure (CHF), as well as the utility of multivariate dynamic risk modelling.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The survival implication of ∆albumin was analysed in 232 systolic CHF patients and validated in 212 patients. A multivariate dynamic risk score predicated on the rate of change in 6 simple indices including albumin was calculated and related to mortality. In derivation patients, 50 (22%) deaths occurred over 13 months. Greater rates of decline in albumin related to higher mortality (HR 0.55, 95% CI 0.41-0.73, P<0.0001) independently, incrementally and more accurately than other covariates including baseline albumin. A rate of attenuation >0.4 g/dL/month optimally forecasted death and was associated with a 5-fold escalated risk of mortality (HR 5.13, 95% CI 2.92-9.00, P<0.0001). Similar results were seen in the validation cohort. On multivariate dynamic risk modelling, survival at 1-year worsened with higher scores-a score ≥ 3 was associated with a 12-fold greater risk of death than a score of 0, a 6-fold higher risk of death than a score of 1, and a 4-fold enhanced risk of mortality than a score of 2.

CONCLUSION

Attenuations in serum albumin over time relate to increased mortality in CHF, and a risk model predicated on the rate of change in 6 simple indices can identify patients at a 12-fold enhanced risk of death over the coming year.

Current indications for heart transplantation and left ventricular assist device: a practical point of view

Heart transplantation (HTx) is considered the "gold standard" therapy of refractory heart failure (HF), but it is accessible only to few patients because of the paucity of suitable heart donors. On the other hand, left ventricular assist devices (LVADs) have proven to be effective in improving survival and quality of life in patients with refractory HF. The challenge encountered by multidisciplinary teams in dealing with advanced HF lies in identifying patients who could benefit more from HTx as compared to LVAD implantation and the appropriate timing. The decision-making is based on clinical parameters, imaging-based data and risk scores. Current outcome of HF patients supported by LVAD (2-year survival around 70%) is rapidly improving and leads the way to a new therapeutic strategy. Patients who have a low likelihood to gain access to the heart graft pool could benefit more from LVAD implantation (defined as bridge to transplantation indication) than from remaining on HTx waiting list with the likely risk of clinical deterioration or removal from the list because patients are no longer suitable for transplantation. LVAD has also demonstrated to be effective in patients who are not considered eligible candidates for HTx with a destination therapy indication. HTx should be reserved to those patients for whom the maximum clinical benefit can be expected, such as young patients with no comorbidities. Here we discuss the current listing criteria for HTx and indications to implant of LVAD for patients with refractory acute and chronic HF based on the guidelines and the practical experience of our center.

Role of nuclear cardiology for guiding device therapy in patients with heart failure

Heart failure is a dynamic condition with high morbidity and mortality and its prognosis should be reassessed frequently, particularly in patients for whom critical treatment decisions may depend on the results of prognostication. In patients with heart failure, nuclear cardiology techniques are useful to establish the etiology and the severity of the disease, while fewer studies have explored the potential capability of nuclear cardiology to guide cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) and to select patients for implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICD). Left ventricular synchrony may be assessed by radionuclide angiography or gated single-photon emission computed tomography myocardial perfusion scintigraphy. These modalities have shown promise as predictors of CRT outcome using phase analysis. Combined assessment of myocardial viability and left ventricular dyssynchrony is feasible using positron emission tomography and could improve conventional response prediction criteria for CRT. Preliminary data also exists on integrated positron emission tomography/computed tomography approach for assessing myocardial viability, identifying the location of biventricular pacemaker leads, and obtaining left ventricular functional data, including contractile phase analysis. Finally, cardiac imaging with autonomic radiotracers may be useful in predicting CRT response and for identifying patients at risk for sudden cardiac death, therefore potentially offering a way to select patients for both CRT and ICD therapy. Prospective trials where imaging is combined with image-test driven therapy are needed to better define the role of nuclear cardiology for guiding device therapy in patients with heart failure.

Predicting survival in heart failure: validation of the MAGGIC heart failure risk score in 51,043 patients from the Swedish heart failure registry

AIMS

The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of a recently developed risk score for mortality in heart failure by external validation in a national heart failure registry.

METHODS AND RESULTS

From 13 routinely available patient characteristics, the Meta-analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure (MAGGIC) constructed a risk score for prediction of mortality in heart failure. We included 51 043 patients from the national Swedish Heart Failure Registry and calculated the MAGGIC risk score for each patient. The outcome measure was 3-year mortality. The predicted probability of death obtained from the calculated risk score was compared with the observed 3-year mortality, and model discrimination and calibration were assessed by formal tests and graphical means. The overall 3-year mortality in the study population was 39.4% and the MAGGIC project heart failure risk score predicted mortality was 36.4% (observed to expected ratio: 1.08). Discrimination was excellent overall (C index = 0.741). The difference between the model-predicted and the observed 3-year mortality in the six risk groups varied between 5% and -12%. Calibration plots demonstrated slight overprediction for the lowest risk patients, and underprediction in high risk patients.

CONCLUSION

The MAGGIC project heart failure risk score demonstrated an excellent ability to categorize patients in separate risk strata. Although the predicted 3-year mortality risk was higher in low risk groups and lower in high risk groups compared with the observed 3-year mortality in the Swedish Heart Failure Registry, the MAGGIC project heart failure risk score performed well in a large nationwide contemporary external validation cohort.

Four-variable risk model in men and women with heart failure

BACKGROUND

Risk stratification is an integral component of clinical decision making in heart failure (HF). Women with HF have unique characteristics compared with men, and it is unknown whether common prognostic factors are equally useful in both populations. We aimed to investigate whether sex-specific risk models are more accurate for risk prediction in patients with advanced HF.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Patients with advanced HF referred to University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA; n=2255), were stratified by sex into derivation (referred in 2000-2007) and validation (referred in 2008-2011) cohorts. Cox regression analysis was used to ascertain key variables predictive of the primary end point of death/urgent transplantation/ventricular assist device in the derivation cohorts and confirmed in the validation cohorts in men, women, and the total population. Women were younger, with higher ejection fraction and better event-free survival. Despite differences in baseline characteristics, the 4 strongest predictors of outcome in both women and men, as well as in the total cohort, were B-type natriuretic peptide, peak oxygen consumption by cardiopulmonary exercise testing (pkVO2), New York Heart Association (NYHA) classification, and use of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or angiotensin receptor blocker. In addition, the UCLA model performed better than the Seattle Heart Failure Model (SHFM) and the Heart Failure Survival Score (HFSS) in our cohort (c-indices of 0.791[UCLA] versus 0.758 [SHFM], 0.607 [noninvasive HFSS], and 0.625 [invasive HFSS]).

CONCLUSIONS

A simple risk model assessing 4 clinical variables-B-type natriuretic peptide, pkVO2, NYHA, and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor/angiotensin receptor blocker use-is well suited to provide prognostic information in both men and women with advanced HF.