Prognostic Values of Clockwise and Counterclockwise Rotation for Cardiovascular Mortality in Japanese Subjects: A 24-Year Follow-Up of the National Integrated Project for Prospective Observation of Noncommunicable Disease and Its Trends in the Aged, 1980–2004 (NIPPON DATA80)

High blood pressure and colorectal cancer mortality in a 29-year follow-up of the Japanese general population: NIPPON DATA80

Onco-hypertension has been proposed, although associations of high blood pressure (BP) with cancer risk remain inconsistent. We examined associations of high BP with risk of mortality from stomach, lung, colorectal, liver, and pancreatic cancers independent of possible confounders in an analysis that excluded deaths within the first 5 years of follow-up to consider the reverse causality. In a prospective cohort representative of the general Japanese population (1980-2009), we studied 8088 participants (mean age, 48.2 years; 56.0% women) without clinical cardiovascular disease or antihypertensive medication at baseline. Fine-Gray competing risks regression was used to estimate hazard ratios for 10 mmHg higher BP adjusted for confounders including smoking, alcohol-drinking, obesity, and diabetes mellitus. During 29-year follow-up, 159 (2.0%), 159 (2.0%), 89 (1.1%), 86 (1.1%), and 68 (0.8%) participants died from stomach, lung, colorectal, liver, and pancreatic cancers, respectively. We observed a positive association of high BP with risk of colorectal cancer mortality but not with mortality risks from any other cancers. The association with colorectal cancer mortality for systolic and diastolic BP was evident in those aged 30-49 years (hazard ratios 1.43 [95% confidence interval, 1.22-1.67] and 1.86 [1.32-2.62], respectively) but not in those aged 50-59 years and ≥60 years (P for age interaction <0.01 for systolic and diastolic BP). The associations with colorectal cancer mortality were similar in the analyses stratified by smoking, alcohol-drinking, obesity, and diabetic status. In conclusion, high BP among young to middle-aged adults was independently associated with risk of colorectal cancer mortality later in life.

Association between electrocardiographic QRS transition zone and mortality from all causes and cardiovascular diseases: A systematic review and meta-analysis

AIMS

To investigate whether clockwise rotation (CWR) and counterclockwise rotation (CCWR) of electrocardiographic QRS transition zone is associated with mortality from all causes and cardiovascular diseases (CVD).

METHODS

Studies were identified from searching of PubMed, EMBASE and the reference lists of relevant papers. Summary multivariate-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and 95% prediction intervals (PIs) were computed through meta-analysis.

RESULTS

A total of five observational cohort studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria, which included 47,252 participants from the general population (8.8% CWR; 44.1% CCWR). Pooling data revealed that CWR was significantly associated with the increased risk of all-cause mortality (HR, 1.18; 95% CI: 1.12-1.24; 95% PI: 1.03-1.37) and CVD mortality (HR, 1.18; 95% CI: 1.08-1.29; 95% PI: 0.98-1.42) compared to NR pattern, with low heterogeneity among studies (P = 0.29, I² = 20%; P = 0.37; I² = 7%; respectively). However, CCWR was inversely associated with the risk of all-cause mortality (HR, 0.92; 95% CI: 0.89-0.95; 95% PI: 0.80-1.05) with low heterogeneity (P = 0.14; I² = 43%), while no significant association existed between CCWR and CVD mortality (HR, 0.89; 95% CI: 0.77-1.02; 95% PI: 0.53-1.48) with high heterogeneity (P < 0.01; I² = 78%).

CONCLUSION

Our meta-analysis demonstrated CWR was positively associated with higher risk of mortality from all-cause and CVD, while CCWR was negatively associated with the risk of all-cause mortality and no significant association with CVD mortality. These findings suggested that QRS transition zone carries important prognostic value, more attention should be paid in clinical practice.

QRS transitional zone rotations and the risk of atrial fibrillation: the Suita Study

ECG screening can detect people at risk of developing atrial fibrillation (AF). Recent literature indicated that QRS transitional zone rotations could predict several cardiovascular events. Herein, we investigated the association between QRS transitional zone rotations and the future risk of AF. This prospective cohort study included 6794 participants (3178 men and 3616 women), aged 30-84 years, from the urban Japanese city of Suita. QRS transitional zone rotations were diagnosed by ECG during baseline, while AF was diagnosed by ECG, hospital records, and checkups during follow-up. The Cox regression was used to compute the sex-specified hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of incident AF for participants with counterclockwise and clockwise QRS transitional zone rotations compared to those with normal rotation. Within a median follow-up period of 14.6 years, 311 participants (206 men and 105 women) developed AF. Counterclockwise rotation was associated with the reduced risk of AF among men, but not women, in the age-adjusted model: HR (95% CI) = 0.66 (0.44, 0.98) and the multivariable-adjusted model: HR (95% CI) = 0.65 (0.43, 0.97). Clockwise rotation was not associated with AF risk in either sex. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to indicate that counterclockwise rotation could be associated with the reduced risk of AF in men. More studies are needed to confirm our findings and elucidate possible mechanisms.

Electrocardiographic QRS axis shift, rotation and COVİD-19

Background

In patients with coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19), severe dyspnea is the most dramatic complication. Severe respiratory difficulties may include electrocardiographic frontal QRS axis rightward shift (Rws) and clockwise rotation (Cwr).

Aim

This study investigated the predictability of advanced lung tomography findings with QRS axis shift and rotation.

Patients and Methods

This was a retrospective analysis of 160 patients. Patients were divided into the following two groups: normal (n = 80) and low (n = 80) oxygen saturation. These groups were further divided into four groups according to the rightward and leftward axis shift (Lws) on the electrocardiographic follow-up findings. These groups were compared in terms of electrocardiographic rotation (Cwr, counterclockwise rotation, or normal transition), tomographic stage (CO-RADS5(advanced)/CO-RADS1-4), electrocardiographic intervals, and laboratory findings.

Results

In patients with low oxygen saturation, the amount of QRS axis shift, Cwr, and tomographic stage were significantly higher in the Rws group than in the Lws group. There were no differences in the above parameters between the Rws and Lws groups in patients with normal oxygen saturation. Logistic regression analysis revealed that the presence of Cwr and Rws independently increased the risk of CO-RADS5 by 18.9 and 4.6 fold, respectively, in patients with low oxygen saturation.

Conclusion

In COVID-19 patients who have dyspnea with low oxygen saturation, electrocardiographically clockwise rotation with a rightward axis shift demonstrated good sensitivity (80% [0.657-0.943]) and specificity (80% [0.552->1]) for predicting advanced lung tomographic findings.

ClinicalTrialsgov Identifier

NCT04698083.

Isolated systolic hypertension and 29-year cardiovascular mortality risk in Japanese adults aged 30--49 years

OBJECTIVE

The prognostic implication of isolated systolic hypertension (ISH), defined as SBP at least 140 mmHg and DBP less than 90 mmHg, among young-to-middle-aged adults remains controversial. We examined the association of ISH with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in adults aged 30-49 years.

METHODS

In a prospective cohort of representative Japanese general populations from the NIPPON DATA80 (1980-2009), we studied 4776 participants (mean age, 39.4 years; 55.4% women) without clinical CVD or antihypertensive medication. Participants were classified as follows: normal blood pressure (BP) (SBP/DBP, <120/<80 mmHg), high-normal BP (120-129/<80 mmHg), elevated BP (130-139/80-89 mmHg), ISH, isolated diastolic hypertension (IDH) (<140/≥90 mmHg), and systolic--diastolic hypertension (SDH) (≥140/≥90 mmHg).

RESULTS

ISH was observed in 389 (8.1%) participants. During the 29-year follow-up, 115 participants died of CVD, 28 of coronary heart disease, and 49 of stroke. Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for demographics and CVD risk factors showed that participants with ISH had higher risk of CVD mortality than those with normal BP [hazard ratio (confidence interval), 4.10 (1.87-9.03)]. The magnitude of CVD mortality risk related to ISH was comparable with that related to IDH [3.38 (1.31-8.72)] and not as great as that related to SDH [5.41 (2.63-11.14)]. We found significant associations of ISH with coronary and stroke mortality. The association of ISH with CVD mortality was consistent across men and women and those aged 30-39 and 40-49 years.

CONCLUSION

ISH among young-to-middle-aged Japanese adults was independently associated with higher risk of CVD mortality later in life.

Prognostic value of Goldberger's electrocardiographic criteria for left ventricular dysfunction

BACKGROUND

The ability of the Goldberger electrocardiographic (ECG) triad criteria to detect left ventricular dysfunction (LVD) is well-established. However, the prognostic significance of this triad as a predictor of poor outcomes is not known.

OBJECTIVE

We explored the association between the Goldberger ECG-LVD triad with all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality in the general population.

METHODS

This analysis included 8426 participants (60.5 ± 13.6 years, 51.5% women, 50% non-Hispanic white) from the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. The Goldberger ECG-LVD triad was defined as follows: high precordial QRS voltage (SV1 or SV2 + RV5 or RV6 ≥ 3500 μV); low limb lead QRS voltage (mean QRS amplitude in each of the limb leads ≤800 μV); and poor R wave progression (RV4/SV4 < 1). Mortality was ascertained using the National Death Index.

RESULTS

At baseline, 1384 (47.3%) of the participants had at least one of the criteria of Goldberger triad (1193 had only one and 191 participants had 2 or more). During a median follow up of 13.8 years, 3184 deaths occurred, of which 1405 were cardiovascular. In multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models, presence of at least one of the Goldberger triad criteria (vs. none) was associated with increased risk of all-cause (HR 1.17, 95% CI 1.08-1.26, p ≤0.0001) and cardiovascular mortality (1.19, 1.06-1.33, p = 0.003).

CONCLUSION

The Goldberger ECG-LVD triad for left ventricular dysfunction may offer prognostic value in addition to its reported diagnostic utility.

Improvement in the electrocardiograms associated with right ventricular hypertrophy after balloon pulmonary angioplasty in chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension

Background

Balloon pulmonary angioplasty (BPA) is a treatment option for patients with chronic thromboembolic pulmonary hypertension (CTEPH).

Methods and results

In 60 patients with CTEPH, we examined the hemodynamic data before and after BPA. In addition, the sequential ECG findings for right ventricular hypertrophy (RVH) were assessed. The mean pulmonary arterial pressure (mPAP) decreased from 38 ± 11 to 20 ± 4 mm Hg (p < 0.05). The ROC analysis showed that the S waves in V5, R waves in V1 + S waves in V5, S waves in I, and QRS axis were significant predictors of an mPAP ≧ 30 mm Hg (AUC > 0.75, p < 0.01). The predictive values for the mPAP before the BPA were the S and R waves in lead V6, and P waves in lead II (33.417 + 0.078 × P in II − 0.10 × R in V6 + 0.012 × S in V6). The change in the mPAP (ΔmPAP) correlated with the change in the amplitudes of the ECGs: ΔS wave in lead I (R = 0.544, p < 0.001), ΔR in V1 + S in V5 (R = 0.476, p < 0.001), and ΔP wave in II (R = 0.511, p < 0.001). At 6 months of follow-up, the improvement in an R in V1 + S in V5 of ≧10 mm implied a better functional status.

Conclusion

BPA therapy reduced the pulmonary arterial pressure in patients with CTEPH and was associated with an improvement in the ECG findings related to RVH.

Distribution and determinants of QRS rotation of black and white persons in the general population

BACKGROUND

The prevalence and determinants of QRS transition zones are not well established.

METHODS

We examined the distributions of Normal, clockwise (CW) and counterclockwise (CCW)) QRS transition zones and their relations to disease, body size and demographics in 4624 black and white men and women free of cardiovascular disease and major ECG abnormalities enrolled in the NHANES-III survey.

RESULTS

CW transition zones were least observed (6.2%) and CCW were most prevalent (60.1%) with Normal in an intermediate position (33.7%). In multivariable logistic regression analysis, the adjusted, significant predictors for CCW compared to Normal were a greater proportion of blacks and women, fewer thin people (BMI<20, thin), a greater ratio of chest depth to chest width, and an LVMass index <80g. By contrast, CW persons were older, had larger QRS/T angles, smaller ratio of chest depth to chest width, had a greater proportion of subjects with low voltage QRS, more pulmonary disease, a greater proportion with high heart rates, shorter QRS duration and were more obese (BMI≥30).

CONCLUSIONS

Normal rather than being the most prevalent transition zone was intermediate in frequency between the most frequently encountered CCW and the least frequently encountered transition zone CW. Differences in the predictors of CW and CCW exist. This requires further investigation to examine how far these differences explain the differences in the published prognostic differences between CW and CCW.

Counterclockwise and Clockwise Rotation of QRS Transitional Zone: Prospective Correlates of Change and Time-Varying Associations With Cardiovascular Outcomes

BACKGROUND

A few studies have recently reported clockwise and counterclockwise rotations of QRS transition zone as predictors of mortality. However, their prospective correlates and associations with individual cardiovascular disease (CVD) outcomes are yet to be investigated.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Among 13 567 ARIC (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities) study participants aged 45 to 64 years, we studied key correlates of changes in the status of clockwise and counterclockwise rotation over time as well as the association of rotation status with incidence of coronary heart disease (2408 events), heart failure (2196 events), stroke (991 events), composite CVD (4124 events), 898 CVD deaths, and 3469 non-CVD deaths over 23 years of follow-up. At baseline, counterclockwise rotation was most prevalent (52.9%), followed by no (40.5%) and clockwise (6.6%) rotation. Of patients with no rotation, 57.9% experienced counterclockwise or clockwise rotation during follow-up, with diabetes mellitus and black race significantly predicting clockwise and counterclockwise conversion, respectively. Clockwise rotation was significantly associated with higher risk of heart failure (hazard ratio, 1.20; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02-1.41) and non-CVD death (hazard ratio, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.12-1.46) after adjusting for potential confounders including other ECG parameters. On the contrary, counterclockwise rotation was significantly related to lower risk of composite CVD (hazard ratio, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.87-0.99]), CVD mortality (hazard ratio, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.65-0.88), and non-CVD deaths (hazard ratio, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.85-0.99 [borderline significance with heart failure]).

CONCLUSIONS

Counterclockwise rotation, the most prevalent QRS transition zone pattern, demonstrated the lowest risk of CVD and mortality, whereas clockwise rotation was associated with the highest risk of heart failure and non-CVD mortality. These results have implications on how to interpret QRS transition zone rotation when ECG was recorded.

Cardiac structural and functional profile of patients with delayed QRS transition zone and sudden cardiac death

AIMS

Delayed QRS transition zone in the precordial leads of the 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) has been recently associated with increased risk of sudden cardiac death (SCD), but the underlying mechanisms are unknown. We correlated echocardiographic findings with ECG and clinical characteristics to investigate how alterations in cardiac structure and function contribute to this risk marker.

METHODS AND RESULTS

From the ongoing population-based Oregon Sudden Unexpected Death Study (catchment population ∼1 million), SCD cases with prior ECG available (n = 627) were compared with controls (n = 801). Subjects with delayed transition at V5 or later were identified, and clinical and echocardiographic patterns associated with delayed transition were analysed. Delayed transition was present in 31% of the SCD cases and 17% of the controls. These subjects were older and more likely to have cardiovascular risk factors and history of myocardial infarction. Delayed transition was associated with increased left ventricular (LV) mass (122.7 ± 40.2 vs. 102.9 ± 33.7 g/m2; P < 0.001), larger LV diameter (53.3 ± 10.4 vs. 49.2 ± 8.0 mm; P < 0.001), and lower LV ejection fraction (LVEF) (46.4 ± 15.7 vs. 55.6 ± 12.5%; P < 0.001). In multivariate analysis, delayed transition was independently associated with myocardial infarction, reduced LVEF, and LV hypertrophy. The association between delayed transition and SCD was independent of the LVEF (OR 1.57; 95% CI 1.04-2.38; P = 0.032).

CONCLUSION

The underpinnings of delayed QRS transition zone extend beyond previous myocardial infarction and reduced LVEF. Since the association with sudden death is independent of these factors, this novel marker of myocardial electrical remodelling should be explored as a potential risk predictor of SCD.

Independent Prognostic Value of Single and Multiple Non-Specific 12-Lead Electrocardiographic Findings for Long-Term Cardiovascular Outcomes: A Prospective Cohort Study

Aims

The long-term prognostic effect of non-specific 12-lead electrocardiogram findings is unknown. We aimed to evaluate the cumulative prognostic impact of axial, structural, and repolarization categorical abnormalities on cardiovascular death, independent from traditional risk scoring systems such as the Framingham risk score and the NIPPON DATA80 risk chart.

Methods and Results

A total of 16,816 healthy men and women from two prospective, longitudinal cohort studies were evaluated. 3,794 (22.6%) individuals died during a median follow-up of 15 years (range, 2.0–24 years). Hazard ratios for cardiovascular death, all-cause death, coronary death and stroke death were calculated for the cumulative and independent axial, structural, and repolarization categorical abnormalities adjusted for the Framingham risk score and the NIPPON DATA80 risk chart. Individuals with two or more abnormal categories had a higher risk of cardiovascular death after adjustment for Framingham risk score (men: HR 4.27, 95%CI 3.35–5.45; women: HR 4.83, 95%CI 3.76–6.22) and NIPPON DATA80 risk chart (men: HR 2.39, 95%CI 1.87–3.07; women: HR 2.04, 95%CI 1.58–2.64).

Conclusion

Cumulative findings of axial, structural, and repolarization abnormalities are significant predictors of long-term cardiovascular death in asymptomatic, healthy individuals independent of traditional risk stratification systems.

Low-carbohydrate diets and cardiovascular and total mortality in Japanese: a 29-year follow-up of NIPPON DATA80

Long-term safety of consuming low-carbohydrate diets (LCD) in Asian populations, whose carbohydrate intake is relatively high, is not known. In the present study, the association of LCD with CVD and total mortality was assessed using data obtained in the NIPPON DATA80 (National Integrated Project for Prospective Observation of Non-communicable Disease and Its Trends in the Aged 1980) during 29 years of follow-up. At baseline in 1980, data were collected from study participants aged ≥ 30 years from randomly selected areas in Japan. LCD scores were calculated based on the percentage of energy as carbohydrate, fat and protein, estimated by 3 d weighed food records. A total of 9200 participants (56% women, mean age 51 years) were followed up. During the follow-up, 1171 CVD deaths (52% in women) and 3443 total deaths (48% in women) occurred. The multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for CVD mortality using the Cox model comparing the highest v. lowest deciles of LCD score was 0·60 (95% CI 0·38, 0·94; P(trend) = 0·021) for women and 0·78 (95% CI 0·58, 1·05; P(trend) = 0·079) for women and men combined; the HR for total mortality was 0·74 (95% CI 0·57, 0·95; P(trend) = 0·029) for women and 0·87 (95% CI 0·74, 1·02; P(trend) = 0·090) for women and men combined. None of the associations was statistically significant in men. No differential effects of animal-based and plant-fish-based LCD were observed. In conclusions, moderate diets lower in carbohydrate and higher in protein and fat are significantly inversely associated with CVD and total mortality in women.

Abnormal electrocardiographic QRS transition zone and risk of mortality in individuals free of cardiovascular disease

AIMS

We examined the prognostic significance of abnormal electrocardiographic QRS transition zone (clockwise and counterclockwise horizontal rotations) in individuals free of cardiovascular disease (CVD).

METHODS AND RESULTS

A total of 5541 adults (age 53 ± 10.4 years, 54% women, 24% non-Hispanic black, 25% Hispanic) without CVD or any major electrocardiogram (ECG) abnormalities from the US Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey were included in this analysis. Clockwise and counterclockwise horizontal rotations were defined from standard 12-lead ECG using Minnesota ECG Classification. Mortality and cause of death were assessed through 2006. At baseline, 282 participants had clockwise rotation and 3500 had counterclockwise rotation. During a median follow of 14.6 years, 1229 deaths occurred of which 415 were due to CVD. In multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazard analysis and compared with normal rotation, clockwise rotation was significantly associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality {hazard ratio (HR) [95% confidence interval (CI)]: 1.43 (1.15-1.78); P = 0.002} and CVD mortality [HR (95% CI): 1.61 (1.09, 2.37) P = 0.016]. In contrast, counterclockwise rotation was associated with significantly lower risk of all-cause mortality [HR (95% CI): 0.86 (0.76, 0.97); P = 0.017] and non-significant association with CVD mortality [HR (95% CI): 1.07 (0.86, 1.33); P = 0.549]. These results were consistent in subgroup analysis stratified by age, sex, and race.

CONCLUSION

In a diverse community-based population free of CVD and compared with normal rotation, clockwise rotation was associated with increased risk of all-cause and CVD mortality while counterclockwise rotation was associated with lower risk of all-cause mortality and non-significant association with CVD mortality. These findings call for attention to these often neglected ECG markers, and probably call for revising the current definition of normal rotation.

High long-chain n-3 fatty acid intake attenuates the effect of high resting heart rate on cardiovascular mortality risk: a 24-year follow-up of Japanese general population

BACKGROUND

Increased resting heart rate (RHR) independently predicts cardiovascular mortality. Meanwhile, long-chain n-3 fatty acids (LCn3FAs) have a cardioprotective effect. Our aim was to evaluate whether higher LCn3FAs intake attenuates the elevated risk of cardiovascular mortality associated with increased RHR.

METHODS

We conducted a population-based 24-year prospective cohort study of Japanese, whose LCn3FAs intake is relatively high. Study participants included 8807 individuals aged 30-95 years from randomly selected areas across Japan without cardiovascular diseases and anti-hypertensive drugs at baseline. The primary endpoint was cardiovascular mortality, and the secondary endpoints were cardiac and stroke mortality during 24 years of follow-up. Individual dietary LCn3FAs intake was estimated from household-based 3-day weighed food records. RHR was obtained from 3 consecutive R-wave intervals on 12-lead electrocardiography. Cox models were used to estimate the multivariable hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) adjusting for possible confounders.

RESULTS

During the follow-up period, 617 cardiovascular deaths were observed. The median daily intake of LCn3FAs was 0.37% kcal (0.86g/day). The interaction between dietary LCn3FAs intake and RHR in the risk of cardiovascular mortality was statistically significant (p=0.033). The risk of cardiovascular mortality was significantly higher in the low-intake group (<0.37%kcal) with an RHR >85beats/min (bpm) [hazard ratio (HR), 1.67; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.15-2.43], but not in the high-intake group (≥0.37%kcal) with an RHR >85bpm (HR, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.61-1.38), compared with those in the high-intake group with an RHR <70bpm. Similar results were observed with stroke mortality, but not with cardiac mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

The risk of cardiovascular mortality associated with increased RHR is elevated in participants with low dietary LCn3FAs intake, but not in participants with high dietary LCn3FAs intake in a representative Japanese general population. These results suggest that high dietary LCn3FAs intake may prevent cardiovascular mortality associated with increased RHR.

Impact of metabolic syndrome on the risk of cardiovascular disease mortality in the United States and in Japan

The United States has a higher prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MS) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality than Japan, but it is unknown how much of the difference in MS accounts for the mortality difference. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of MS on the excess CVD mortality in the United States compared with that in Japan. Data from the United States Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III; n = 12,561) and the Japanese National Integrated Project for Prospective Observation of Noncommunicable Disease and Its Trends in Aged (NIPPON DATA; n = 7,453) were analyzed. MS was defined as ≥3 of 5 risk factors (obesity, high blood pressure, decreased high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, elevated glycosylated hemoglobin, and elevated triglycerides). The results show that after a median of 13.8 years of follow-up in the United States, 1,683 patients died from CVD (11.75 per 1,000 person-years), and after a median of 15 years of follow-up in Japan, 369 patients died from CVD (3.56 per 1,000 person-years). The age-adjusted prevalence of MS was 26.7% in the United States and 19.3% in Japan. Of 5 MS factors, obesity, high blood pressure, elevated triglycerides, and glycosylated hemoglobin in the United States, and high blood pressure and elevated glycosylated hemoglobin in Japan were significant risk factors for CVD mortality. Estimates of 13.3% and 44% of the excess CVD mortality for the United States could be explained by the higher prevalence of MS and MS plus baseline CVD history than in Japan. In conclusion, the present study is the first to quantitatively demonstrate that MS and MS plus baseline CVD history may significantly contribute to the explanation of excess CVD mortality in the United States compared with Japan.

Long-term outcome of healthy participants with atrial premature complex: a 15-year follow-up of the NIPPON DATA 90 cohort

Background

Atrial premature complexes (APC) are among the most frequently encountered electrocardiographic abnormalities. However, their prognostic value among healthy individuals is unclear. This study aimed to clarify the role of APC in predicting cardiovascular events in a large Japanese community cohort using long-term follow-up data.

Methods

National Integrated Project for Prospective Observation of Non-communicable Disease And its Trends in the Aged, 1990-2005, (NIPPON DATA 90) was a large cohort study of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Japan. A total of 7692 otherwise healthy participants with no history of myocardial infarction, stroke, atrial fibrillation, or atrial flutter were enrolled (men, 41.5%; mean age, 52.5 ± 13.7 years).

Results

A total of 64 (0.8%) participants had at least one beat of APC on screening 12-lead electrocardiogram. During the follow-up of 14.0 ± 2.9 years (total, 107,474 patient-years), 338 deaths occurred due to CVD. The association between APC and CVD outcome was assessed using Cox proportional hazard models. Cox regression analysis revealed that the presence of APC was an independent predictor for CVD deaths (HR: 2.03, 95% CI: 1.12–3.66, P = 0.019). The association of APC on CVD death was more evident in participants with hypertension (P-value for interaction, 0.03).

Conclusions

APC recorded during the screening electrocardiogram are significantly associated with an increased risk of CVD deaths in a Japanese community-dwelling population and are a strong prognostic factor for hypertensive participants.

Cumulative impact of axial, structural, and repolarization ECG findings on long-term cardiovascular mortality among healthy individuals in Japan: National Integrated Project for Prospective Observation of Non-Communicable Disease and its Trends in the Aged, 1980 and 1990

AIMS

Various cohort studies have shown a close association between long-term cardiovascular disease (CVD) outcomes and individual electrocardiographic (ECG) abnormalities such as axial, structural, and repolarization changes. The combined effect of these ECG abnormalities, each assumed to be benign, has not been thoroughly investigated.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Community-dwelling Japanese residents from the National Integrated Project for Perspective Observation of Non-Communicable Disease and its Trends in the Aged, 1980-2004 and 1990-2005 (NIPPON DATA80 and 90), were included in this study. Baseline ECG findings were classified using the Minnesota Code and categorized into axial (left axis deviation, clockwise rotation), structural (left ventricular hypertrophy, atrial enlargement), and repolarization (minor and major ST-T changes) abnormalities. The hazard ratios of the cumulative impacts of ECG findings on long-term CVD death were estimated by stratified Cox proportional hazard models, including adjustments for cohort strata. In all, 16,816 participants were evaluated. The average age was 51.2 ± 13.5 years; 42.7% participants were male. The duration of follow up was 300,924 person-years (mean 17.9 ± 5.8 years); there were 1218 CVD deaths during that time. Overall, 4203 participants (25.0%) had one or more categorical ECG abnormalities: 3648 (21.7%) had a single abnormality, and 555 (3.3%) had two or more. The risk of CVD mortality increased as the number of abnormalities accumulated (single abnormality HR 1.29, 95% CI 1.13-1.48; ≥2 abnormalities HR 2.10, 95% CI 1.73-2.53).

CONCLUSIONS

Individual ECG abnormalities had an additive effect in predicting CVD outcome risk in our large-scale cohort study.