Dynamic TIMI risk score for STEMI

Relationship Between Infarct Artery, Myocardial Injury, and Outcomes After Primary Percutaneous Coronary Intervention in ST-Segment-Elevation Myocardial Infarction

BACKGROUND

The extent to which infarct artery impacts the extent of myocardial injury and outcomes in patients with ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention is uncertain.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We performed a pooled analysis using individual patient data from 7 randomized STEMI trials in which myocardial injury within 30 days after primary percutaneous coronary intervention was assessed in 1774 patients by cardiac magnetic resonance (n=1318) or technetium-99m sestamibi single-photon emission computed tomography (n=456). Clinical follow-up was performed at a median duration of 351 days (interquartile range, 184-368 days). Infarct size and outcomes were assessed in anterior (infarct vessel=left anterior descending) versus nonanterior (non-left anterior descending) STEMI. Median infarct size (percentage left ventricular myocardial mass) was larger in patients with anterior compared with nonanterior STEMI (19.7% [interquartile range, 9.4%-31.7%] versus 12.6% [interquartile range, 5.1%-20.5%]; P<0.001). Patients with anterior compared with nonanterior STEMI were at higher risk for 1-year all-cause mortality (6.2% versus 3.6%; adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.66 [95% CI, 1.02-2.69]; P=0.04) and heart failure hospitalization (4.4% versus 2.6%; adjusted HR, 1.96 [95% CI, 1.15-3.36]; P=0.01). Infarct size was a predictor of subsequent all-cause mortality or heart failure hospitalization in anterior STEMI (adjusted HR per 1% increase, 1.05 [95% CI, 1.03-1.07]; P<0.001), but not in nonanterior STEMI (adjusted HR, 1.02 [95% CI, 0.99-1.05]; P=0.19). The P value for this interaction was 0.04.

CONCLUSIONS

Anterior STEMI was associated with substantially greater myonecrosis after primary percutaneous coronary intervention compared with nonanterior STEMI, contributing in large part to the worse prognosis in patients with anterior infarction.

Age-associated declined function of endothelial progenitor cells and its correlation with plasma IL-18 or IL-23 concentrations in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction

Background

ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) persists to be prevalent in the elderly with a dismal prognosis. The capacity of endothelial progenitor cells (EPCs) is reduced with aging. Nevertheless, the influence of aging on the functionality of EPCs in STEMI is not fully understood.

Method

This study enrolled 20 younger STEMI patients and 21 older STEMI patients. We assessed the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) and Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events Risk (GRACE) scores in two groups. Then, we detected EPC migration, proliferation, adhesion, and plasma interleukin (IL)-18 and IL-23 concentrations in two groups. In addition, we analyzed the interconnection between age, EPC function, plasma IL-18 and IL-23 concentrations, and GRACE or TIMI scores in STEMI patients.

Result

GRACE and TIMI scores in older STEMI patients were higher than in younger STEMI patients, whereas EPC function declined. GRACE and TIMI scores were found to have an inverse relationship with the EPC function. In older STEMI patients, plasma concentrations of IL-18 and IL-23 increased. Plasma IL-18 and IL-23 concentrations were adversely connected to EPC capacity and positively related to GRACE and TIMI scores. Moreover, age was positively correlated with plasma IL-18 or IL-23 concentrations, as well as GRACE or TIMI scores. However, age was adversely correlated with EPC function.

Conclusion

In patients with STEMI, aging results in declined EPC function, which may be associated with inflammatory cytokines. The current investigation may offer new perception about mechanism and therapeutic targets of aging STEMI.

Anterior-wall and non-anterior-wall STEMIs do not differ in long-term mortality: results from the augsburg myocardial infarction registry

Background

Different ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) localizations go along with dissimilarities in the size of the affected myocardium, the causing coronary vessel occlusion, and the right ventricular participation. Therefore, this study aims to clarify if there is any difference in long-term survival between anterior- and non-anterior-wall STEMI.

Methods

This study included 2,195 incident STEMI cases that occurred between 2009 and 2017, recorded by the population-based Augsburg Myocardial Infarction Registry, Germany. The study population comprised 1.570 men and 625 women aged 25-84 years at acute myocardial infarction. The patients were observed from the day of their first acute event with an average follow-up period of 4.3 years, (standard deviation: 3.0). Survival analyses and multivariable Cox regression analyses were performed to examine the association between infarction localizations and long-term all-cause mortality.

Results

Of the 2,195 patients, 1,118 had an anterior (AWS)- and 1,077 a non-anterior-wall-STEMI (NAWS). No significant associations of the STEMI localization with long-term mortality were found. When comparing AWS with NAWS, a hazard ratio of 0.91 [95% confidence interval: 0.75-1.10] could be calculated after multivariable adjustment. In contrast to NAWS, AWS was associated with a greater <28 day mortality, less current or former smoking and higher creatine kinase-myocardial band levels (CK-MB) and went along with a higher frequency of impaired left ventricular ejection fraction (<30%).

Conclusions

Despite pathophysiological differences between AWS and NAWS, and identified differences in multiple clinical characteristics, no significant differences in long-term mortality between both groups were observed.

Application and risk prediction of thrombolytic therapy in cardio-cerebrovascular diseases: a review

Cardiocerebrovascular diseases (CVDs) are the leading cause of death worldwide, consuming huge healthcare budget. For CVD patients, the prompt assessment and appropriate administration is the crux to save life and improve prognosis. Thrombolytic therapy, as a non-invasive approach to achieve recanalization, is the basic component of CVD treatment. Still, there are risks that limits its application. The objective of this review is to give an introduction on the utilization of thrombolytic therapy in cardiocerebrovascular blockage diseases, including coronary heart disease and ischemic stroke, and to review the development in risk assessment of thrombolytic therapy, comparing the performance of traditional scales and novel artificial intelligence-based risk assessment models.

Circulating IGF-1 and IGFBP-2 may be biomarkers for risk stratification in patients with acute coronary syndrome: A prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The involvement of insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1) and insulin-like growth factor binding protein-2 (IGFBP-2) following acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is rarely studied in clinical practice. Therefore, we sought to evaluate the relationship between IGF-1 and IGFBP-2 concentrations at admission and risk stratification based on the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk score in patients with ACS.

METHODS AND RESULTS

In all, 304 patients diagnosed with ACS were included in this study. Plasma IGF-1 and IGFBP-2 were measured using commercially available ELISA kits. The TIMI risk score was calculated and the study population was stratified into high (n = 65), medium (n = 138), and low (n = 101) risk groups. Levels of IGF-1 and IGFBP-2 were analyzed for their predictive ability of risk stratification based on the TIMI risk scores. Correlation analysis showed that IGF-1 levels were negatively correlated with TIMI risk levels (r = -0.144, p = 0.012), while IGFBP-2 levels were significantly and positively correlated with TIMI risk levels (r = 0.309, p < 0.001). In multivariate logistic regression analysis, IGF-1 (odds ratio [OR]: 0.995; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.990-1.000; p = 0.043) and IGFBP-2 (OR: 1.002; 95%CI: 1.001-1.003; p < 0.001) were independent predictors of high TIMI risk levels. In receiver operating characteristic curves, the area under the curve values for IGF-1 and IGFBP-2 in the prediction of high TIMI risk levels were 0.605 and 0.723, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

IGF-1 and IGFBP-2 levels are excellent biomarkers for risk stratification in patients with ACS, which provides further guidance for clinicians to identify patients at high risk and to lower their risk.

Safety and efficacy of perioperative continuous renal replacement therapy for percutaneous coronary intervention in severe acute myocardial infarction patients

This retrospective study aimed to evaluate the safety and efficacy of continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT) during percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in patients with severe acute myocardial infarction (AMI). The study analyzed data from 945 AMI patients hospitalized between January 2016 and December 2017, out of which 21 patients underwent perioperative CRRT for PCI. We assessed the baseline characteristics of severe AMI patients before and after CRRT and examined the effect of CRRT on cardiac, renal, and liver function, as well as other indicators. The heart rate of patients undergoing CRRT was significantly lower at 24 h and 48 h after CRRT than before CRRT (p=0.038). There was a moderate but not significant decrease in the mean systolic blood pressure or diastolic blood pressure (p>0.05). Importantly, we found that significantly more patients showed Killip class I-II and significantly improved cardiac function after CRRT (23.8% vs. 57.1%, p=0.001). The levels of urea nitrogen, creatinine, aspartate aminotransferase, glutamic pyruvic transaminase, and total bilirubin were significantly lowered after CRRT treatment (p<0.05). Perioperative management of CRRT was safe and effective for severe AMI patients.

Development and validation of dynamic models to predict postdischarge mortality risk in patients with acute myocardial infarction: results from China Acute Myocardial Infarction Registry

OBJECTIVES

The risk of adverse events and prognostic factors are changing in different time phases after acute myocardial infarction (AMI). The incidence of adverse events is considerable in the early period after AMI hospitalisation. Therefore, dynamic risk prediction is needed to guide postdischarge management of AMI. This study aimed to develop a dynamic risk prediction instrument for patients following AMI.

DESIGN

A retrospective analysis of a prospective cohort.

SETTING

108 hospitals in China.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 23 887 patients after AMI in the China Acute Myocardial Infarction Registry were included in this analysis.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES

All-cause mortality.

RESULTS

In multivariable analyses, age, prior stroke, heart rate, Killip class, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), in-hospital percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), recurrent myocardial ischaemia, recurrent myocardial infarction, heart failure (HF) during hospitalisation, antiplatelet therapy and statins at discharge were independently associated with 30-day mortality. Variables related to mortality between 30 days and 2 years included age, prior renal dysfunction, history of HF, AMI classification, heart rate, Killip class, haemoglobin, LVEF, in-hospital PCI, HF during hospitalisation, HF worsening within 30 days after discharge, antiplatelet therapy, β blocker and statin use within 30 days after discharge. The inclusion of adverse events and medications significantly improved the predictive performance of models without these indexes (likelihood ratio test p<0.0001). These two sets of predictors were used to establish dynamic prognostic nomograms for predicting mortality in patients with AMI. The C indexes of 30-day and 2-year prognostic nomograms were 0.85 (95% CI 0.83-0.88) and 0.83 (95% CI 0.81-0.84) in derivation cohort, and 0.79 (95% CI 0.71-0.86) and 0.81 (95% CI 0.79-0.84) in validation cohort, with satisfactory calibration.

CONCLUSIONS

We established dynamic risk prediction models incorporating adverse event and medications. The nomograms may be useful instruments to help prospective risk assessment and management of AMI.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT01874691.

Machine learning-based prediction of infarct size in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction: A multi-center study

BACKGROUND

Cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (CMR) is the gold standard for measuring infarct size (IS). However, this method is expensive and requires a specially trained technologist to administer. We therefore sought to quantify the IS using machine learning (ML) based analysis on clinical features, which is a convenient and cost-effective alternative to CMR.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We included 315 STEMI patients with CMR examined one week after morbidity in final analysis. After feature selection by XGBoost on fifty-six clinical features, we used five ML algorithms (random forest (RF), light gradient boosting decision machine, deep forest, deep neural network, and stacking) to predict IS with 26 (selected by XGBoost with information gain greater than average level of 56 features) and the top 10 features, during which 5-fold cross-validation were used to train and optimize models. We then evaluated the value of actual and ML-IS for the prediction of adverse remodeling. Our finding indicates that MLs outperform the linear regression in predicting IS. Specifically, the RF with five predictors identified by the exhaustive method performed better than linear regression (LR) with 10 indicators (R² of RF: 0.8; LR: 0). The finding also shows that both actual and ML-IS were independently associated with adverse remodeling. ML-IS ≥ 21% was associated with a twofold increase in the risk of LV remodeling (P < 0.01) compared with patients with reference IS (1st tertile).

CONCLUSION

ML-based methods can predict IS with widely available clinical features, which provide a proof-of-concept tool to quantitatively assess acute phase IS.

A Machine Learning-Based Applied Prediction Model for Identification of Acute Coronary Syndrome (ACS) Outcomes and Mortality in Patients during the Hospital Stay

Nowadays, machine learning (ML) is a revolutionary and cutting-edge technology widely used in the medical domain and health informatics in the diagnosis and prognosis of cardiovascular diseases especially. Therefore, we propose a ML-based soft-voting ensemble classifier (SVEC) for the predictive modeling of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) outcomes such as STEMI and NSTEMI, discharge reasons for the patients admitted in the hospitals, and death types for the affected patients during the hospital stay. We used the Korea Acute Myocardial Infarction Registry (KAMIR-NIH) dataset, which has 13,104 patients' data containing 551 features. After data extraction and preprocessing, we used the 125 useful features and applied the SMOTETomek hybrid sampling technique to oversample the data imbalance of minority classes. Our proposed SVEC applied three ML algorithms, such as random forest, extra tree, and the gradient-boosting machine for predictive modeling of our target variables, and compared with the performances of all base classifiers. The experiments showed that the SVEC outperformed other ML-based predictive models in accuracy (99.0733%), precision (99.0742%), recall (99.0734%), F1-score (99.9719%), and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) (99.9702%). Overall, the performance of the SVEC was better than other applied models, but the AUC was slightly lower than the extra tree classifier for the predictive modeling of ACS outcomes. The proposed predictive model outperformed other ML-based models; hence it can be used practically in hospitals for the diagnosis and prediction of heart problems so that timely detection of proper treatments can be chosen, and the occurrence of disease predicted more accurately.

Relation of Gender to the Occurrence of AKI in STEMI Patients

Patients undergoing percutaneous coronary interventions (PCIs) are prone to a wide range of complications; one complication that is constantly correlated with a worse prognosis is acute kidney injury (AKI). Gender as an independent risk factor for said complications has raised some interest; however, studies have shown conflicting results so far. We aimed to investigate the possible relation of gender to the occurrence of AKI in STEMI patients undergoing PCI. This retrospective observational study cohort included 2967 consecutive patients admitted with STEMI between the years 2008 and 2019. Their renal outcomes were assessed according to KDIGO criteria (AKI serum creatinine ≥ 0.3 mg/dL from baseline within 48 h from admission), and in-hospital complications and mortality were reviewed. Our main results show that female patients were older (69 vs. 60, p < 0.001) and had higher rates of diabetes (29.2% vs. 23%, p < 0.001), hypertension (62.9% vs. 41.3%, p < 0.001), and chronic kidney disease (26.7% vs. 19.3%, p < 0.001). Females also had a higher rate of AKI (12.7% vs. 7.8%, p < 0.001), and among patients with AKI, severe AKI was also more prevalent in females (26.1% vs. 14.5%, p = 0.03). However, in multivariate analyses, after adjusting for the baseline characteristics above, the female gender was a non-significant predictor for AKI (adjusted OR 1.01, 95% CI 0.73−1.4, p = 0.94) or severe AKI (adjusted OR 1.65, 95% CI 0.80−1.65, p = 0.18). In conclusion, while females had higher rates of AKI and severe AKI, gender was not independently associated with AKI after adjusting for other confounding variables. Other comorbidities that are more prevalent in females can account for the difference in AKI between genders.

Predictors of Hospital Mortality Based on Primary Angioplasty Treatment: A Multicenter Case-Control Study

BACKGROUND

Identification of high-risk patients undergoing primary angioplasty (PCI) is essential.

OBJECTIVE

Identify factors related to the causes of death in PCI patients.

METHODS

This work consisted of a multicenter case-control study using a Brazilian registry of cardiovascular interventions as the data source. The association between each variable and death was assessed using a binary logistic regression model, p <0.05 was considered significant.

RESULTS

A total of 26,990 records were analyzed, of which 18,834 (69.8%) were male patients, with a median age of 61 (±17) years. In the multivariate analysis, the main variables related to the causes of death with their respective odds ratios and 95%confidence intervals (CI) were advanced age, 70-79 years (2.46; 1.64-3.79) and ≥ 80 years (3.69; 2.38-5.81), p<0.001; the classification of Killip II (2.71; 1.92-3.83), Killip III (8.14; 5.67-11.64), and Killip IV (19.83; 14.85-26.69), p<0.001; accentuated global dysfunction (3.63; 2,39-5.68), p<0.001; and the occurrence of infarction after intervention (5.01; 2.57-9.46), p<0.001. The main protective factor was the post-intervention thrombolysis in myocardial infarction (TIMI) III flow (0.18; 0.13-0.24), p<0.001, followed by TIMI II (0.59; 0.41 -0.86), p=0.005, and male (0.79; 0.64-0.98), p = 0.032; dyslipidemia (0.69; 0.59-0.85), p<0.001; and number of lesions treated (0.86; 0.9-0.94), p<0.001.

CONCLUSION

The predictors of mortality in patients undergoing PCI were Killip's classification, reinfarction, advanced age, severe left ventricular dysfunction, female gender, and post-intervention TIMI 0 / I flow.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of prognostic models in Southeast Asian populations with acute myocardial infarction

Background

The cultural and genetic diversity of the Southeast Asian population has contributed to distinct cardiovascular disease risks, incidence, and prognosis compared to the Western population, thereby raising concerns about the accuracy of predicted risks of existing prognostic models.

Objectives

We aimed to evaluate the predictive performances of validated, recalibrated, and developed prognostic risk prediction tools used in the Southeast Asian population with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) events for secondary events

Methods

We searched MEDLINE and Cochrane Central databases until March 2022. We included prospective and retrospective cohort studies that exclusively evaluated populations in the Southeast Asian region with a confirmed diagnosis of an AMI event and evaluated for risk of secondary events such as mortality, recurrent AMI, and heart failure admission. The CHARMS and PRISMA checklists and PROBAST for risk of bias assessment were used in this review.

Results

We included 7 studies with 11 external validations, 3 recalibrations, and 3 new models from 4 countries. Both short- and long-term outcomes were assessed. Overall, we observed that the external validation studies provided a good predictive accuracy of the models in the respective populations. The pooled estimate of the C-statistic in the Southeast Asian population for GRACE risk score is 0.83 (95%CI 0.72–0.90, n = 6 validations) and for the TIMI risk score is 0.80 (95%CI: 0.772–0.83, n = 5 validations). Recalibrated and new models demonstrated marginal improvements in discriminative values. However, the method of predictive accuracy measurement in most studies was insufficient thereby contributing to the mixed accuracy effect. The evidence synthesis was limited due to the relatively low quality and heterogeneity of the available studies.

Conclusion

Both TIMI and GRACE risk scores demonstrated good predictive accuracies in the population. However, with the limited strength of evidence, these results should be interpreted with caution. Future higher-quality studies spanning various parts of the Asian region will help to understand the prognostic utility of these models better.

Systematic review registration

https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?%20RecordID=228486.

Generalizability of Cardiovascular Disease Clinical Prediction Models: 158 Independent External Validations of 104 Unique Models

Background:

While clinical prediction models (CPMs) are used increasingly commonly to guide patient care, the performance and clinical utility of these CPMs in new patient cohorts is poorly understood.

Methods:

We performed 158 external validations of 104 unique CPMs across 3 domains of cardiovascular disease (primary prevention, acute coronary syndrome, and heart failure). Validations were performed in publicly available clinical trial cohorts and model performance was assessed using measures of discrimination, calibration, and net benefit. To explore potential reasons for poor model performance, CPM-clinical trial cohort pairs were stratified based on relatedness, a domain-specific set of characteristics to qualitatively grade the similarity of derivation and validation patient populations. We also examined the model-based C-statistic to assess whether changes in discrimination were because of differences in case-mix between the derivation and validation samples. The impact of model updating on model performance was also assessed.

Results:

Discrimination decreased significantly between model derivation (0.76 [interquartile range 0.73–0.78]) and validation (0.64 [interquartile range 0.60–0.67], P<0.001), but approximately half of this decrease was because of narrower case-mix in the validation samples. CPMs had better discrimination when tested in related compared with distantly related trial cohorts. Calibration slope was also significantly higher in related trial cohorts (0.77 [interquartile range, 0.59–0.90]) than distantly related cohorts (0.59 [interquartile range 0.43–0.73], P=0.001). When considering the full range of possible decision thresholds between half and twice the outcome incidence, 91% of models had a risk of harm (net benefit below default strategy) at some threshold; this risk could be reduced substantially via updating model intercept, calibration slope, or complete re-estimation.

Conclusions:

There are significant decreases in model performance when applying cardiovascular disease CPMs to new patient populations, resulting in substantial risk of harm. Model updating can mitigate these risks. Care should be taken when using CPMs to guide clinical decision-making.

Development of a Clinical Risk Score for Prediction of Life-Threatening Arrhythmia Events in Patients with ST Elevated Acute Coronary Syndrome after Primary Percutaneous Coronary Intervention

ST-elevated acute coronary syndrome (STEACS) is a serious condition requiring timely treatment. Reperfusion with primary percutaneous coronary intervention (pPCI) is recommended and preferred over fibrinolysis. Despite its efficacy, lethal complications, such as life-threatening arrhythmia (LTA), are common in post-PCI patients. Although various risk assessment tools were developed, only a few focus on LTA prediction. This study aimed to develop a risk score to predict LTA events after pPCI. A risk score was developed using a retrospective cohort of consecutive patients with STEACS who underwent pPCI at Chiangrai Prachanukroh Hospital from January 2012 to December 2016. LTA is defined as the occurrence of malignant arrhythmia that requires advanced cardiovascular life support (ACLS) within 72 h after pPCI. Logistic regression was used for model derivation. Among 273 patients, 43 (15.8%) developed LTA events. Seven independent predictors were identified: female sex, hemoglobin < 12 gm/dL, pre- and intra-procedural events (i.e., respiratory failure and pulseless arrest), IABP insertion, intervention duration > 60 min, and desaturation after pPCI. The LTA score showed an AuROC of 0.93 (95%CI 0.90, 0.97). The score was categorized into three risk categories: low (<2.5), moderate (2.5–4), and high risk (>4) for LTA events. The LTA score demonstrated high predictive performance and potential clinical utility for predicting LTA events after pPCI.

High levels of interleukin-6 are associated with final infarct size and adverse clinical events in patients with STEMI

Objective

Inflammation has emerged as a new treatment target in patients with coronary artery disease and inflammation seems to play an important role in ischaemia/reperfusion injury that follows ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). We aimed to explore the role of acute and sustained interleukin 6 (IL-6) signalling, including soluble IL-6 receptor (IL-6R), with regard to infarct size, adverse remodelling and future cardiovascular events in patients with STEMI.

Methods

We included 269 patients with first-time STEMI, symptom duration <6 hours and treated with percutaneous coronary intervention. Blood sampling and cardiac MRI were performed in the acute phase and after 4 months. Clinical events and all-cause mortality were registered during 12-month and 70-month follow-up, respectively.

Results

IL-6 levels above median at all sampling points were significantly associated with increased infarct size and reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). IL-6 levels in the highest quartile were at all sampling points associated with an increased risk of having an adverse clinical event during the first 12 months and with long-term all-cause mortality. IL-6R was not associated with infarct size, LVEF, myocardial salvage or long-term all-cause mortality.

Conclusion

Acute and sustained elevation of IL-6 measured 4 months after STEMI were associated with larger infarct size, reduced LVEF and adverse clinical events including all-cause mortality. The results add important information to the sustained role of inflammation in patients with STEMI and IL-6 as a potential target for long-term intervention.

Trial registration number

NCT00922675.

The relationship between symptom onset-to-needle time and ischemic outcomes in patients with acute myocardial infarction treated with primary PCI: Observations from Prague-18 Study

OBJECTIVES

Based on previous studies with clopidogrel, the time between acute myocardial infarction (AMI) symptoms onset and primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) was proven as important prognostic factor. Our aim was to assess the relationship between symptoms onset to needle time (SNT) and procedural results and the occurrence of ischemic endpoints in primary angioplasty patients treated with potent P2Y12 inhibitors.

METHODS

A total of 1,131 out of 1,230 patients randomized to the Prague-18 study (prasugrel vs. ticagrelor in primary PCI) were divided into a high and a low-risk group. The effect of defined SNT on patients' ischemic endpoints and prognosis by their risk status at admission was tested.

RESULTS

The median SNT was 3.2 hours. Longer SNTs resulted in a more frequent incidence of TIMI flow <3 post PCI (p=0.015). There were significant differences in the occurrence of the combined ischemic endpoint among the compared SNT groups at 30 days (p=0.032), and 1 year (p=0.011), with the highest incidence in the ≤1 h SNT group of patients. "Latecomers" (SNT>4 hs) in the high-risk group experienced more reinfarction within 1 year [OR (95% CI) 3.23 (1.09-9.62) p=0.035]; no difference was found in the low-risk group.

CONCLUSIONS

In the era of intense antithrombotic medication, stratification of MI patients undergoing primary angioplasty, based on initial ischemic risk assessment affected prognosis more than symptom onset to needle time. Longer time delay was significantly related to increased incidence of ischemic events and all-cause mortality only in patients with high ischemic risk.

Evaluation and Comparison of the STIMUL Extended and Simplified Risk Scores for Predicting Two-Year Death in Patients Following ST-Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction

Background and Objectives: The management of ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) requires a patient’s long-term risk to be estimated. The objective of this study was to develop extended and simplified models of two-year death risk estimation following STEMI that include and exclude cardiac troponins as prognostic factors and to compare their performance with each other. Materials and Methods: Extended and simplified multivariable logistic regression models were elaborated using 1103 patients with STEMI enrolled and followed up in the STIMUL (ST-segment elevation Myocardial Infarctions in Ukraine and their Lethality) registry. Results: The extended STIMUL risk score includes seven independent risk factors: age; Killip class ≥ II at admission; resuscitated cardiac arrest; non-reperfused infarct-related artery; troponin I ≥ 150.0 ng/L; diabetes mellitus; and history of congestive heart failure. The exclusion of cardiac troponin in the simplified model did not influence the predictive value of each factor. Both models divide patients into low, moderate, and high risk groups with a C-statistic of 0.89 (95% CI 0.84–0.93; p < 0.001) for the extended STIMUL model and a C-statistic of 0.86 (95% CI 0.83–0.99; p < 0.001) for the simplified model. However, the addition of the level of troponin I to the model increased its prognostic value by 10.7%. Conclusions: The STIMUL extended and simplified risk estimation models perform well in the prediction of two-year death risk following STEMI. The simplified version may be useful when clinicians do not know the value of cardiac troponins among the population of STEMI patients.

Application of Modern Clinical Risk Scores in the Global Assessment of Risks Related to the Diagnosis and Treatment of Acute Coronary Syndromes in Everyday Medical Practice

This article presents an overview of contemporary risk assessment systems used in patients with myocardial infarction. The full range of risk scales, both recommended by the European Society of Cardiology and others published in recent years, is presented. Scales for assessing the risk of ischemia/death as well as for assessing the risk of bleeding are presented. A separate section is devoted to systems assessing the integrated risk associated with both ischemia and bleeding. In the first part of the work, each of the risk scales is described in detail, including the clinical trials/registers on the basis of which they were created, the statistical methods used to develop them, as well as the specification of their individual parameters. The next chapter presents the practical application of a given scale in the patient risk assessment process, the timing of its application on the timeline of myocardial infarction, as well as a critical assessment of its potential advantages and limitations. The last part of the work is devoted to the presentation of potential directions for the development of risk assessment systems in the future.

Predicting mortality in cardiac care unit patients: external validation of the Mayo cardiac intensive care unit admission risk score

AIMS

The Mayo Cardiac Intensive Care Unit Admission Risk Score (M-CARS) had excellent performance in predicting in-hospital mortality in the US population. We sought to validate the M-CARS for in-hospital and post-discharge mortality in Asian patients admitted to the cardiac care unit (CCU).

METHODS AND RESULTS

Patients admitted to the CCU of a tertiary care centre between July 2015 and December 2019 were included into the study. Patients with intra-hospital transfer to the CCU due to intensive care unit overflow, postoperative cardiac surgery, or for monitoring after elective procedures were excluded. Cardiac arrest, cardiogenic shock, respiratory failure, Braden skin score, blood urea nitrogen, anion gap, and red cell distribution width, were used to calculate the M-CARS. Patients were stratified into three groups, according to the M-CARS (<2, 2-6, >6). Of 1988 patients in the study, 30.1% were female with a median age of 65 years. Prevalence of cardiogenic shock and respiratory failure at admission were 2.8% and 4.5%, respectively. One hundred and seventeen patients died during the admission (mortality rate of 5.9%). The in-hospital mortality rate in patients with M-CARS of <2, 2-6, and >6 was 1.1%, 9.8%, and 35.5%, respectively. C-statistic of M-CARS for in-hospital mortality was 0.840 (95% CI 0.805-0.873); whereas, it was 0.727 (95% CI 0.690-0.761) for 1-year post-discharge mortality. Calibration plot showed good agreement between predicted and observed in-hospital mortality in the majority of patients.

CONCLUSIONS

The M-CARS was useful in our study, in terms of discrimination and calibration. M-CARS identified high-risk patients in CCU, who had unacceptably high mortality rate during hospital stay and thereafter.

The ratio of circulating endothelin-1 to endothelin-3 associated with TIMI risk and dynamic TIMI risk score in ST elevation acute myocardial infarction

In ST segment elevation acute myocardial infarction (STEMI), the endothelin (ET) system imbalance, reflected by the circulating ET-1:ET-3 ratio has not been investigated. This study's primary objective was to measure the circulating ET-1:ET-3 ratio and correlate it with the risk stratification for 1 year mortality of STEMI based on TIMI score. On admission, the TIMI risk score and at discharge, the dynamic TIMI risk score were calculated in 68 consecutive subjects with STEMI. Subjects with high TIMI risk score were associated with higher mean ET-1 level and ET-1:ET-3 ratio. The ET-1:ET-3 ratio more accurately predicted the high on admission TIMI risk score than the ET-1 level. Subjects with high dynamic TIMI risk score were associated with higher mean ET-1 level and ET-1:ET-3 ratio. The ET-1:ET-3 ratio more accurately predicted the high at discharge dynamic TIMI risk score than ET-1 level. From multivariable analysis, the ET-1:ET-3 ratio was not independently associated with high on admission TIMI risk score but independently predicted high at discharge dynamic TIMI risk score (odds ratio = 9.186, p = 0.018). In conclusion, combining the ET-1 and ET-3 levels into the ET-1:ET-3 ratio provided a prognostic value by independently predicting the increased risk to 1 year mortality as indicated by at discharge dynamic TIMI risk score in patients with STEMI.

Mortality prediction algorithms for patients undergoing primary percutaneous coronary intervention

Mortality risk of ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients shows high variability. In order to assess individual risk, a number of scoring systems have been developed and validated. Yet, as treatment approaches evolve over time with improving outcomes, there is a need to build new risk prediction algorithms to maintain/increase prognostic accuracy. One of the most relevant improvements of therapy is primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). We overview the characteristics and discriminative performance of the most studied and some recently constructed mortality risk models that were validated in patients with STEMI who underwent primary PCI.

Comparison of the TIMI, GRACE, PAMI and CADILLAC risk scores for prediction of long-term cardiovascular outcomes in Taiwanese diabetic patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction: From the registry of the Taiwan Society of Cardiology

Acute coronary syndrome (ACS) patients with diabetes have significantly worse cardiovascular outcomes than those without diabetes. This study aimed to compare the performance of The Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction (TIMI), Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE), Primary Angioplasty in Myocardial Infarction (PAMI), and Controlled Abciximab and Device Investigation to Lower Late Angioplasty Complications (CADILLAC) risk scores in predicting long-term cardiovascular outcomes in diabetic patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). From the Acute Coronary Syndrome-Diabetes Mellitus Registry of the Taiwan Society of Cardiology, patients with STEMI were included. The TIMI, GRACE, PAMI, and CADILLAC risk scores were calculated. The discriminative potential of risk scores was analyzed using the area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve (AUC). In the 455 patients included, all four risk score systems demonstrated predictive accuracy for 6-, 12- and 24-month mortality with AUC values of 0.67-0.82. The CADILLAC score had the best discriminative accuracy, with an AUC of 0.8207 (p<0.0001), 0.8210 (p<0.0001), and 0.8192 (p<0.0001) for 6-, 12-, and 24-month mortality, respectively. It also had the best predictive value for bleeding and acute renal failure, with an AUC of 0.7919 (p<0.05) and 0.9764 (p<0.0001), respectively. Patients with CADILLAC risk scores >8 had poorer 2-year survival than those with lower scores (log-rank p<0.0001). In conclusion, the CADILLAC risk score is more effective than other risk scores in predicting 6-month, 1-year, and 2-year all-cause mortality in diabetic patients with STEMI. It also had the best predictive value for in-hospital bleeding and acute renal failure.

Left Ventricular Ejection Fraction along with Zwolle Risk Score for Risk Stratification to Enhance Safe and Early Discharge in STEMI Patients Undergoing Primary Percutaneous Coronary Intervention: A Retrospective Observational Study

Introduction

Zwolle risk score (ZRS) is a validated scoring system to determine the time of discharge in ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients. Left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) also provides prognostic information after ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). We studied that the addition of LVEF to ZRS variable can improve decision making in safe and early discharge in STEMI patients post-primary coronary intervention.

Methods

Overall, 249 STEMI patients were studied retrospectively. LVEF was considered as an independent variable. The patients having LVEF <50% were under Group A and LVEF ≥50% were under Group B. Groups were analyzed by model comparison for overall hospital length of stay (LOS) and Intensive care unit (ICU) LOS post-primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI).

Results

There were 123 patients in Group A and 126 patients in Group B. Comparison for primary outcomes showed significant difference with hospital length of stay (LOS) being 3.1 ± 2.3 days in Group A versus 2.1 ± 0.8 days in Group B (p < 0.001). Similarly, ICU stay was also significantly higher in Group A with 36.5 ± 31.4 hours versus 24.0 ± 11.8 hours for Group B, which led to prolonged hospitalization for patients with LVEF <50%. Model 1 that considers ZRS individually is nested within Model 2 where ZRS and LVEF are considered together. The profile log-likelihood ratio test favors model 2 over model 1 (p < 0.0001). Similarly for ICU LOS, R² = 0.12 (Model 1) < R² = 0.20 (Model 2). The F test favors model 2 over model 1 (p < 0.0001).

Conclusion

We concluded that adding LVEF to Zwolle risk score gives a better model for risk stratification in STEMI patients to decide early and safe discharge post-primary PCI.

Untapped potential of multicenter studies: a review of cardiovascular risk prediction models revealed inappropriate analyses and wide variation in reporting

BACKGROUND

Clinical prediction models are often constructed using multicenter databases. Such a data structure poses additional challenges for statistical analysis (clustered data) but offers opportunities for model generalizability to a broad range of centers. The purpose of this study was to describe properties, analysis, and reporting of multicenter studies in the Tufts PACE Clinical Prediction Model Registry and to illustrate consequences of common design and analyses choices.

METHODS

Fifty randomly selected studies that are included in the Tufts registry as multicenter and published after 2000 underwent full-text screening. Simulated examples illustrate some key concepts relevant to multicenter prediction research.

RESULTS

Multicenter studies differed widely in the number of participating centers (range 2 to 5473). Thirty-nine of 50 studies ignored the multicenter nature of data in the statistical analysis. In the others, clustering was resolved by developing the model on only one center, using mixed effects or stratified regression, or by using center-level characteristics as predictors. Twenty-three of 50 studies did not describe the clinical settings or type of centers from which data was obtained. Four of 50 studies discussed neither generalizability nor external validity of the developed model.

CONCLUSIONS

Regression methods and validation strategies tailored to multicenter studies are underutilized. Reporting on generalizability and potential external validity of the model lacks transparency. Hence, multicenter prediction research has untapped potential.

REGISTRATION

This review was not registered.

Physiological Consequences of Coronary Arteriolar Dysfunction and Its Influence on Cardiovascular Disease

To date, the major focus of diagnostic modalities and interventions to treat coronary artery disease has been the large epicardial vessels. Despite substantial data showing that microcirculatory dysfunction is a strong predictor of future adverse cardiovascular events, very little research has gone into developing techniques for in vivo diagnosis and therapeutic interventions to improve microcirculatory function. In this review, we will discuss the pathophysiology of coronary arteriolar dysfunction, define its prognostic implications, evaluate the diagnostic modalities available, and provide speculation on current and potential therapeutic opportunities.

Risk Stratification in Patients with Coronary Artery Disease: A Practical Walkthrough in the Landscape of Prognostic Risk Models

Although a combination of multiple strategies to prevent and treat coronary artery disease (CAD) has led to a relative reduction in cardiovascular mortality over recent decades, CAD remains the greatest cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide. A variety of individual factors and circumstances other than clinical presentation and treatment type contribute to determining the outcome of CAD. It is increasingly understood that personalised medicine, by taking these factors into account, achieves better results than "one-size-fitsall" approaches. In recent years, the multiplication of risk scoring systems for CAD has generated some degree of uncertainty regarding whether, when and how predictive models should be adopted when making clinical decisions. Against this background, this article reviews the most accepted risk models for patients with evidence of CAD to provide practical guidance within the current landscape of tools developed for prognostic risk stratification.

High-sensitivity cardiac troponin T and prognosis in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction

BACKGROUND

Evidence on the use of high-sensitivity cardiac troponins (hs-cTn) to risk-stratify patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) is limited.

METHODS

We assessed the prognostic value of preprocedural (admission) and peak postprocedural hs-cTnT in 818 patients with STEMI treated with primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI). Preprocedural and peak postprocedural hs-cTnT was measured. The primary outcome was 3-year all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

The median values of preprocedural and peak postprocedural hs-cTnT were 153ng/L and 1980ng/L. Overall, 134 patients died during the follow-up. There were 85 deaths in patients with preprocedural hs-cTnT >median value and 49 deaths in patients with preprocedural hs-cTnT ≤median value [Kaplan-Meier estimates of mortality, 22.2% and 13.5%; unadjusted hazard ratio (HR)=1.88, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.32-2.67, p<0.001]. According to peak postprocedural hs-cTnT, there were 84 deaths in patients with postprocedural hs-cTnT >median value and 50 deaths in patients with postprocedural hs-cTnT ≤median value [Kaplan-Meier estimates of mortality, 22.3% and 13.4%; unadjusted HR=1.82 (1.28-2.59), p<0.001]. After adjustment, preprocedural [adjusted HR=1.08 (1.03-1.12), p<0.001] and peak postprocedural hs-cTnT value [adjusted HR=1.06 (1.04-1.08), p<0.001] were independently associated with 3-year mortality (with risk estimates calculated per 70×99th upper reference limit of hs-cTnT). The C statistic of multivariable model increased from 0.868 (0.841-0.895) to 0.872 (0.845-0.898) after incorporation of preprocedural hs-cTnT (p=0.050) and to 0.874 (0.846-0.899) after incorporation of the postprocedural hs-cTnT into the model (p=0.035).

CONCLUSIONS

In conclusion, admission or peak postprocedural hs-cTnT is independently associated with the risk for 3-year mortality in patients with STEMI undergoing PPCI.

Left ventricular global longitudinal strain following revascularization in acute ST elevation myocardial infarction - A comparison of primary angioplasty and Streptokinase-based pharmacoinvasive strategy

Objective

Tenecteplase-based pharmacoinvasive percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) has been shown to yield outcomes comparable to primary PCI in the setting of acute ST elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). This study was designed to compare the efficacy of pharmacoinvasive PCI following successful thrombolysis with Streptokinase versus primary PCI in patients with STEMI.

Methodology

We conducted a prospective single center observational study in 120 patients with STEMI who underwent primary PCI (n = 60) and Streptokinase-based pharmacoinvasive PCI (n = 60). Patients with Killips class 3 or 4 at presentation, and those with evidence of failed fibrinolysis were excluded. The primary outcome was LV systolic function after angioplasty, as assessed by 2D global longitudinal strain (GLS) using speckle tracking echocardiography (STE), as well as 2D LVEF using Simpson's biplane method.

Results

LV systolic function after PCI was significantly lower in the pharmacoinvasive arm as compared to the primary PCI arm, both by 2D STE (GLS: −9% vs −11%; p = 0.03) and 2D Simpson's biplane method (LVEF: 40.7% vs 45.1%; p = 0.02). TIMI flow in the culprit vessel prior to angioplasty was better in the pharmacoinvasive arm indicating successful thrombolysis, whereas post angioplasty flow was not different. There was no in-hospital mortality in either group. There was a trend toward increased incidence of acute kidney injury in the pharmacoinvasive arm.

Conclusion

LV systolic function is significantly better after primary angioplasty as compared to pharmacoinvasive PCI following successful thrombolysis with Streptokinase.

N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide improves the C-ACS risk score prediction of clinical outcomes in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction

Background

It remained unclear whether the combination of the Canada Acute Coronary Syndrome Risk Score (CACS-RS) and N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-pro-BNP) could have a better performance in predicting clinical outcomes in acute ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients with primary percutaneous coronary intervention.

Methods

A total of 589 consecutive STEMI patients were enrolled. The potential additional predictive value of NT-pro-BNP with the CACS-RS was estimated. Primary endpoint was in-hospital mortality and long-term poor outcomes.

Results

The incidence of in-hospital death was 3.1%. Patients with higher NT-pro-BNP and CACS-RS had a greater incidence of in hospital death. After adjustment for the CACS-RS, elevated NT-pro-BNP (defined as the best cutoff point based on the Youden’s index) was significantly associated with in hospital death (odd ratio = 4.55, 95%CI = 1.52–13.65, p = 0.007). Elevated NT-pro-BNP added to CACS-RS significantly improved the C-statistics for in-hospital death, as compared with the original score (0.762 vs. 0.683, p = 0.032). Furthermore, the addition of NT-pro-BNP to CACS-RS enhanced net reclassification improvement (0.901, p < 0.001) and integrated discrimination improvement (0.021, p = 0.033), suggesting effective discrimination and reclassification. In addition, the similar result was also demonstrated for in-hospital major adverse clinical events (C-statistics: 0.736 vs. 0.695, p = 0.017) or 3-year mortality (0.699 vs. 0.604, p = 0.004).

Conclusions

Both NT-pro-BNP and CACS-RS are risk predictors for in hospital poor outcomes in patients with STEMI. A combination of them could derive a more accurate prediction for clinical outcome s in these patients.

Prognostic Value of the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction Risk Score in ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction Patients With Left Ventricular Dysfunction (from the EPHESUS Trial)

The Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk score remains a robust prediction tool for short-term and midterm outcome in the patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). However, the validity of this risk score in patients with STEMI with reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) remains unclear. A total of 2,854 patients with STEMI with early coronary revascularization participating in the randomized EPHESUS (Epleronone Post-Acute Myocardial Infarction Heart Failure Efficacy and Survival Study) trial were analyzed. TIMI risk score was calculated at baseline, and its predictive value was evaluated using C-indexes from Cox models. The increase in reclassification of other variables in addition to TIMI score was assessed using the net reclassification index. TIMI risk score had a poor predictive accuracy for all-cause mortality (C-index values at 30 days and 1 year ≤0.67) and recurrent myocardial infarction (MI; C-index values ≤0.60). Among TIMI score items, diabetes/hypertension/angina, heart rate >100 beats/min, and systolic blood pressure <100 mm Hg were inconsistently associated with survival, whereas none of the TIMI score items, aside from age, were significantly associated with MI recurrence. Using a constructed predictive model, lower LVEF, lower estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and previous MI were significantly associated with all-cause mortality. The predictive accuracy of this model, which included LVEF and eGFR, was fair for both 30-day and 1-year all-cause mortality (C-index values ranging from 0.71 to 0.75). In conclusion, TIMI risk score demonstrates poor discrimination in predicting mortality or recurrent MI in patients with STEMI with reduced LVEF. LVEF and eGFR are major factors that should not be ignored by predictive risk scores in this population.

Risk stratification after ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction

INTRODUCTION

Risk stratification according to the timing of assessment, treatment modality and outcome of interest is highly advisable in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) to identify optimal treatment strategies, proper length of hospital stay and correct timing of follow-up. Areas covered: This review is an overview summarizing the characteristics and performance of available risk-scoring systems for STEMI. In particular, we sought to highlight the characteristics of STEMI cohorts used for derivation and validation of the available algorithms and appraise their discrimination ability, calibration and global accuracy. Expert commentary: Applying the appropriate score, customized on patients' profile and clinical characteristics at presentation or during the hospitalization, might prove useful to improve the overall quality of care provided to STEMI patients.

Risk Scores After Acute Coronary Syndrome

Acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is associated with both short- and long-term unfavorable prognosis. Therefore, medical societies developed risk scores for predicting mortality and assessing decision-making regarding early aggressive treatment in patients presenting an ACS. The Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction and the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events risk scores are the most extensively investigated scores for ACS. Clinical judgment is also important. Significant differences in aggressive treatment of ACS still exist with respect to gender, age, and ethnicity. The reasons for these discrepancies need to be further elucidated in future studies. Therefore, generalizability of stratifications and risk scores in certain populations should be performed with caution.

EARLY CLINICAL PROGNOSIS FOR HIGH-RISK CHEST PAIN PATIENTS USING SMART TEXTILES

According to statistics, up to 40% of emergency admissions are due to chest tightness or chest pain. However, merely based on the patient’s current symptoms such as chest pain, it is difficult for a physician to give an instant diagnosis as most cardiovascular diseases are chronic. To address this issue, it is necessary to provide a set of tools to indicate the patient’s status during hospitalization to help the physician in diagnosis. It is thus our primary objective to design and develop a wearable heart rate monitoring system and prediction tool that can measure the patient’s heart rate parameters, allow him/her to move around easily, and which also can effectively improve the medical personnel’s working efficiency. This research utilizes conductive filament to design textile to integrate electric circuit with clothing. Using a conductive vest and chest belt that can be worn comfortably, our system can continuously record patients’ physiological index parameters during their hospitalization. Physiological index parameters of multiple patients can then be transmitted wirelessly and recorded in a physician-end computer. At the end of their hospitalization, the patient’s original physiological indices together with the recorded heart rate variability (HRV) parameters can then be summarized to assess the risk score of their discharging from hospital. This paper adopts the concept of TIMI risk score, while adding every index of HRV measured when subjects are hospitalized. The risk score can hence be used to provide emergency physicians as a basis for an early prognosis and subsequently a better hospital-discharging assessment of patients with chest pain. The accuracy of the proposed prognosis has been verified with the 3-day and 30-day recall rate of the patients and the result has been shown to be promising for chest pain patients in emergency admission units.

Preoperative trepanation and drainage for acute subdural hematoma: Two case reports

Craniotomy is frequently used for the treatment of acute subdural hematoma; however, it the procedure exhibits a high mortality rate. Preoperative trepanation and drainage in an emergency ward may reduce intracranial pressure, shorten operation time and lower patient mortality, and is thus applicable to the treatment of acute subdural hematoma. The present study reports the cases of two elderly patients that benefitted from trepanation and drainage of an acute subdural hematoma. In each case, the family members of the patients refused to consent to a craniotomy; thus, burr-hole drainage was selected as an alternative option for relieving intracranial pressure. The risks require careful evaluation when considering whether trepanation with drainage is an option for a patient. Following treatment, the two cases were cured and discharged on days 48 and 18 after admission, respectively. The present case studies indicate that trepanation with drainage may be a promising approach for reducing craniotomy-associated mortality and closely monitoring condition variation in elderly patients. Following trepanation with drainage, certain patients do not undergo a craniotomy.

Neutrophil count improves the GRACE risk score prediction of clinical outcomes in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction

OBJECTIVE

Both the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) risk score and neutrophil count could predict clinical outcomes in patients with acute coronary syndromes. However, the ability of them to identify high risk patients leaves room for improvement. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate whether the combination of them could have a better performance in predicting clinical outcomes in patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI).

METHODS

A total of 1287 consecutive STEMI patients were recruited at two centers in China. Neutrophil count was measured and the GRACE risk score was calculated.

RESULTS

During a median period of 37 months (IQR, 29-47), 135 (10.9%) patients had major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), including 116 all-cause death. Neutrophil count and the GRACE risk score were higher in patients with MACE. Both neutrophil count and the GRACE score were significant and independent predictors for MACE [HR: 1.260 (1.203-1.319), P < 0.001; HR: 1.007 (1.002-1.011), P < 0.001; respectively). Combination of them increased the area under the ROC (0.698 vs. 0.796, P < 0.001). The addition of neutrophil count to GRACE model enhanced net reclassification improvement (0.637, P = 0.020) and integrated discrimination improvement (0.180, P < 0.001), suggesting effective discrimination and reclassification.

CONCLUSION

Both neutrophil count and the GRACE risk score are independent predictors for MACE in patients with STEMI. A combination of them could derive a more accurate prediction for clinical outcomes in these patients.

GRACE Score among Six Risk Scoring Systems (CADILLAC, PAMI, TIMI, Dynamic TIMI, Zwolle) Demonstrated the Best Predictive Value for Prediction of Long-Term Mortality in Patients with ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction

AIM

To compare the prognostic accuracy of six scoring models for up to three-year mortality and rates of hospitalisation due to acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) in STEMI patients.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A total of 593 patients treated with primary PCI were evaluated. Prospective follow-up of patients was ≥3 years. Thirty-day, one-year, two-year, and three-year mortality rates were 4.0%, 7.3%, 8.9%, and 10.6%, respectively. Six risk scores--the TIMI score and derived dynamic TIMI, CADILLAC, PAMI, Zwolle, and GRACE--showed a high predictive accuracy for six- and 12-month mortality with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values of 0.73-0.85. The best predictive values for long-term mortality were obtained by GRACE. The next best-performing scores were CADILLAC, Zwolle, and Dynamic TIMI. All risk scores had a lower prediction accuracy for repeat hospitalisation due to ADHF, except Zwolle with the discriminatory capacity for hospitalisation up to two years (AUC, 0.80-0.83).

CONCLUSIONS

All tested models showed a high predictive value for the estimation of one-year mortality, but GRACE appears to be the most suitable for the prediction for a longer follow-up period. The tested models exhibited an ability to predict the risk of ADHF, especially the Zwolle model.

Management of acute coronary syndrome in the hospital: a focus on ACCF/AHA guideline updates to oral antiplatelet therapy

The 3 main clinical manifestations of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) are unstable angina, non-ST-segment myocardial infarction, and ST-segment myocardial infarction. Together they comprise a major cause of emergency care and hospitalization in the United States. Consequently, all hospital-based physicians should be familiar with current recommendations regarding the diagnosis and management of ACS. Effective inhibition of platelet activation and aggregation is central to the treatment of ACS, and dual antiplatelet therapy with aspirin and a P2Y12 inhibitor is recommended in all patients with ACS. Recently, the American Heart Association and American College of Cardiology Foundation published focused updates to their guidelines for the management of ACS patients. These updates included changes in antiplatelet therapy arising from the introduction of prasugrel and ticagrelor as alternatives to clopidogrel for the P2Y12 inhibitor component of dual antiplatelet therapy. Among the P2Y12 inhibitors recommended for each indication, the guidelines do not advocate any one P2Y12 inhibitor over another, but instead recommend that therapy is individualized based on each patient's demographic and clinical characteristics. This article presents a clinical case study to illustrate the hospital management of ST-segment myocardial infarction and unstable angina/non-ST-segment myocardial infarction with particular reference to the latest changes in antiplatelet therapy guidelines. This article outlines key differences in the indications and recommendations for P2Y12 inhibitors and summarizes clinical data from the pivotal studies of prasugrel and ticagrelor.