Outcomes and Care Quality Metrics for Women of Reproductive Age Living With Rheumatic Heart Disease in Uganda

Outcomes and care quality metrics for people living with rheumatic heart disease and atrial fibrillation in Uganda

Background

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common complication of rheumatic heart disease (RHD) and is challenging to treat in lower-resourced settings in which RHD remains endemic.

Objective

We characterized demographics, treatment outcomes, and factors leading to care retention for participants with RHD and AF in Uganda.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective analysis of the Uganda national RHD registry between June 2009 and May 2018. Participants with AF or atrial flutter were included. Demographics, survival, and care metrics were compared with participants without AF. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with retention in care among participants with AF.

Results

A total of 1530 participants with RHD were analyzed and 293 (19%) had AF. The median age was 24 (interquartile range 14-38) years. Mortality was similar in both groups (adjusted hazard ratio 1.183, P = .77) over a median follow-up of 203 (interquartile range 98-275) days. A total of 79% of AF participants were prescribed anticoagulation, and 43% were aware of their target international normalized ratio. Retention in care was higher in participants with AF (18% vs 12%, P < .01). Factors associated with decreased retention in care include New York Heart Association functional class III/IV (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 0.48, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.30-0.76) and distance to nearest health center (adjusted OR 0.94, 95% CI 0.90-0.99). Anticoagulation prescription was associated with enhanced care retention (adjusted OR 1.86, 95% CI 1.24-2.79).

Conclusion

Participants with RHD and AF in Uganda do not experience higher mortality than those without AF. Anticoagulation prescription rates are high. Although retention in care is poor among RHD participants, those with concurrent AF are more likely to be retained.

Predicting ICU Mortality in Rheumatic Heart Disease: Comparison of XGBoost and Logistic Regression

Background

Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) accounts for a large proportion of Intensive Care Unit (ICU) deaths. Early prediction of RHD can help with timely and appropriate treatment to improve survival outcomes, and the XGBoost machine learning technology can be used to identify predictive factors; however, its use has been limited in the past. We compared the performance of logistic regression and XGBoost in predicting hospital mortality among patients with RHD from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC-IV) database.

Methods

The patients with RHD in the MIMIC-IV database were divided into two groups retrospectively according to the availability of data and its clinical significance based on whether they survived or died. Backward stepwise regression was used to analyze the independent factors influencing patients with RHD, and to compare the differences between the two groups. The XGBoost algorithm and logistic regression were used to establish two prediction models, and the areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUCs) and decision-curve analysis (DCA) were used to test and compare the models. Finally, DCA and the clinical impact curve (CIC) were used to validate the model.

Results

Data on 1,634 patients with RHD were analyzed, comprising 207 who died during hospitalization and 1,427 survived. According to estimated results for the two models using AUCs [0.838 (95% confidence interval = 0.786–0.891) and 0.815 (95% confidence interval = 0.765–0.865)] and DCA, the logistic regression model performed better. DCA and CIC verified that the logistic regression model had convincing predictive value.

Conclusions

We used logistic regression analysis to establish a more meaningful prediction model for the final outcome of patients with RHD. This model might be clinically useful for patients with RHD and help clinicians to provide detailed treatments and precise management.

Health system and patient-level factors serving as facilitators and barriers to rheumatic heart disease care in Sudan

BACKGROUND

Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) remains a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa despite widely available preventive therapies such as prophylactic benzathine penicillin G (BPG). In this study, we sought to characterize facilitators and barriers to optimal RHD treatment with BPG in Sudan.

METHODS

We conducted a mixed-methods study, collecting survey data from 397 patients who were enrolled in a national RHD registry between July and November 2017. The cross-sectional surveys included information on demographics, healthcare access, and patient perspectives on treatment barriers and facilitators. Factors associated with increased likelihood of RHD treatment adherence to prophylactic BPG were assessed by using adjusted logistic regression. These data were enhanced by focus group discussions with 20 participants, to further explore health system factors impacting RHD care.

RESULTS

Our quantitative analysis revealed that only 32% of the study cohort reported optimal prophylaxis adherence. Younger age, reduced primary RHD healthcare facility wait time, perception of adequate health facility staffing, increased treatment costs, and high patient knowledge about RHD were significantly associated with increased odds of treatment adherence. Qualitative data revealed significant barriers to RHD treatment arising from health services factors at the health system level, including lack of access due to inadequate healthcare staffing, lack of faith in local healthcare systems, poor ancillary services, and patient lack of understanding of disease. Facilitators of RHD treatment included strong interpersonal support.

CONCLUSIONS

Multiple patient and system-level barriers to RHD prophylaxis adherence were identified in Khartoum, Sudan. These included patient self-efficacy and participant perception of healthcare facility quality. Strengthening local health system infrastructure, while enhancing RHD patient education, may help to improve treatment adherence in this vulnerable population.

Improving anticoagulation in sub-Saharan Africa: What are the challenges and how can we overcome them?

Patients in sub-Saharan Africa generally have poor anticoagulation control. We review the potential reasons for this poor control, as well as the potential solutions. Challenges include the affordability and centralisation of anticoagulation care, problems with access to medicines and international normalised ratio monitoring, the lack of locally validated standardized dosing protocols, and low levels of anticoagulation knowledge among healthcare workers and patients. Increasing numbers of patients will need anticoagulation in the future because of the increasing burden of noncommunicable disease in the region. We propose that locally developed "warfarin care bundles" which address multiple anticoagulation challenges in combination may be the most appropriate solution in this setting currently.

Outcomes and Care Quality Metrics for Women of Reproductive Age Living With Rheumatic Heart Disease in Uganda

Background Rheumatic heart disease disproportionately affects women of reproductive age, as it increases the risk of cardiovascular complications and death during pregnancy and childbirth. In sub-Saharan Africa, clinical outcomes and adherence to guideline-based therapies are not well characterized for this population. Methods and Results In a retrospective cohort study of the Uganda rheumatic heart disease registry between June 2009 and May 2018, we used multivariable regression and Cox proportional hazards models to compare comorbidities, mortality, anticoagulation use, and treatment cascade metrics among women versus men aged 15 to 44 with clinical rheumatic heart disease. We included 575 women and 252 men with a median age of 27 years. Twenty percent had New York Heart Association Class III-IV heart failure. Among patients who had an indication for anticoagulation, women were less likely than men to receive a prescription of warfarin (66% versus 81%; adjusted odds ratio, 0.37; 95% CI, 0.14-0.96). Retention in care (defined as a clinic visit within the preceding year) was poor among both sexes in this age group (27% for men, 24% for women), but penicillin adherence rates were high among those retained (89% for men, 92% for women). Mortality was higher in men than women (26% versus 19% over a median follow-up of 2.7 years; adjusted hazard ratio, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.18-2.33). Conclusions Compared with men, women of reproductive age with rheumatic heart disease in Uganda have lower rates of appropriate anticoagulant prescription but also lower mortality rates. Retention in care is poor among both men and women in this age range, representing a key target for improvement.