Bidirectional Association Between Kidney Function and Atrial Fibrillation: A Population-Based Cohort Study

Difference Between Estimated GFR Based on Cystatin C Versus Creatinine and Incident Atrial Fibrillation: A Cohort Study of the UK Biobank

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE

The difference between cystatin C-based and creatinine-based estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFRdiff) has been suggested to reflect factors distinct from kidney function that are associated with cardiovascular risk. However, the association between eGFRdiff and atrial fibrillation (AF) risk has not been extensively evaluated.

STUDY DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING & PARTICIPANTS

Using data from the UK Biobank, this study included 363,494 participants with measured serum creatinine and cystatin C levels and without a prior diagnosis of AF or a history of related procedures.

EXPOSURE

Estimated GFRdiff, calculated as cystatin C-based eGFR minus creatinine-based eGFR. Estimated GFRdiff was also categorized as negative (<-15mL/min/1.73m2), midrange (-15 to 15mL/min/1.73m2), or positive (≥15mL/min/1.73m2).

OUTCOME

Incident AF.

ANALYTICAL APPROACH

Subdistribution hazard models were fit, treating death that occurred before development of AF as a competing event.

RESULTS

During the median follow-up period of 11.7 years, incident AF occurred in 18,994 (5.2%) participants. In the multivariable-adjusted model, participants with a negative eGFRdiff had a higher risk of incident AF (subdistribution HR [SHR], 1.25 [95% CI, 1.20-1.30]), whereas participants with a positive eGFRdiff had a lower risk of AF (SHR, 0.81 [95% CI, 0.77-0.87]) compared with those with a midrange eGFRdiff. When eGFRdiff was treated as a continuous variable in the adjusted model, every 10mL/min/1.73m2 higher eGFRdiff was associated with a 0.90-fold decrease in the risk of incident AF.

LIMITATIONS

A single measurement of baseline serum creatinine and cystatin C levels.

CONCLUSIONS

The difference between cystatin C- and creatinine-based eGFRs was associated with the risk of AF development. A higher eGFRdiff was associated with a lower risk of AF. These findings may have implications for the management of patients at risk of incident AF.

PLAIN-LANGUAGE SUMMARY

The difference between cystatin C-based estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and creatinine-based eGFR has recently gained attention as a potential indicator of cardiovascular outcomes influenced by factors other than kidney function. This study investigated the association between the differences in 2 eGFRs (cystatin C-based eGFR minus creatinine-based eGFR) and incident atrial fibrillation (AF) among>340,000 participants from the UK Biobank Study. Compared with those with a near zero eGFR difference, participants with a negative eGFR difference had a higher risk of AF, while those with a positive eGFR difference had a lower risk. These findings suggest that measuring eGFR differences may help identify individuals at a higher risk of developing AF.

The Rotterdam Study. Design update and major findings between 2020 and 2024

The Rotterdam Study is a population-based cohort study, started in 1990 in the district of Ommoord in the city of Rotterdam, the Netherlands, with the aim to describe the prevalence and incidence, unravel the etiology, and identify targets for prediction, prevention or intervention of multifactorial diseases in mid-life and elderly. The study currently includes 17,931 participants (overall response rate 65%), aged 40 years and over, who are examined in-person every 3 to 5 years in a dedicated research facility, and who are followed-up continuously through automated linkage with health care providers, both regionally and nationally. Research within the Rotterdam Study is carried out along two axes. First, research lines are oriented around diseases and clinical conditions, which are reflective of medical specializations. Second, cross-cutting research lines transverse these clinical demarcations allowing for inter- and multidisciplinary research. These research lines generally reflect subdomains within epidemiology. This paper describes recent methodological updates and main findings from each of these research lines. Also, future perspective for coming years highlighted.

Cardiovascular and renal outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation and stage 4-5 chronic kidney disease receiving direct oral anticoagulants: a multicenter retrospective cohort study

The role of direct oral anticoagulants (DOAC) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) and stage 4-5 chronic kidney disease (CKD) is controversial. Electronic medical records from 2012 to 2021 were retrieved for patients with AF and stage 4-5 CKD receiving oral anticoagulants. Patients were separated into those receiving DOACs (dabigatran, rivaroxaban, apixaban, or edoxaban) or vitamin K antagonists (VKA). Primary outcomes included ischemic stroke (IS), systemic thrombosis (SE), major bleeding, gastrointestinal bleeding, hemorrhagic stroke, acute myocardial infarction, cardiovascular death, and all-cause death. Renal outcomes included eGFR declines, creatinine doubling, progression to dialysis, and major adverse kidney events (MAKE). The primary analysis was until the end of follow up and the results at 1-year and 2-year of follow ups were also assessed. 2,382 patients (DOAC = 1,047, VKA = 1,335) between 2012 and 2021 with AF and stage 4-5 CKD were identified. The mean follow-up period was 2.3 ± 2.1 years in DOCAs and 2.6 ± 2.3 years in VKA respectively. At the end of follow up, the DOAC patients had significantly decreased SE (subdistribution hazard ratio [SHR] = 0.50, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.34-0.73), composite of IS/SE (SHR = 0.78, 95% CI = 0.62-0.98), major bleeding (HR = 0.77, 95% CI = 0.66-0.90), hemorrhagic stroke (HR = 0.52, 95% CI = 0.36-0.76), and composite of bleeding events (SHR = 0.80, 95% CI = 0.69-0.92) compared with VKA patients. The IS efficacy outcome revealed neutral between DOAC and VKA patients (HR = 1.05, 95% CI = 0.79-1.39). In addition, DOAC patients had significantly decreased rates of eGFR decline > 50% (SHR = 0.75, 95% CI = 0.64-0.87), creatinine doubling (SHR = 0.80, 95% CI = 0.67-0.95), and MAKE (SHR = 0.81, 95% CI = 0.71-0.93). In patients with AF and stage 4-5 CKD, use of DOAC was associated with decreased rates of a composite of ischemic stroke/systemic embolism, a composite of bleeding events, and renal events compared to VKA. Efficacy and safety benefits associated with apixaban at standard doses were consistent throughout follow-up.

Age, creatinine, and ejection fraction (ACEF) score as predictive values for late non-valvular atrial fibrillation recurrence after radiofrequency ablation

The clinical risk factors associated with late recurrence in patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation (AF) (NVAF) undergoing radiofrequency catheter ablation (RFCA) remain unknown. Furthermore, the current prognostic risk score system is commonly used in such patients as a noninvasive method to assess late AF recurrence. According to recent research, the Age, creatinine, and ejection fraction (ACEF) score is a useful risk score for cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. As a result, we hypothesized that pre-ablation ACEF score could be used to assess late recurrence in patients with NVAF. We included 325 NVAF patients undergoing RFCA. During a median follow-up period of 12 months, patients with late AF recurrence had higher ACEF scores (P < .001). The pre-ablation ACEF score was a risk factor for late AF recurrence after RFCA (P = .027). The ACEF score was a predictor of late AF recurrence after RFCA, with an AUC of 0.624 (P = .001). Moreover, the AUC of left atrial diameter (LAD) was 0.7 (P < .001), which was higher than the ACEF score, but no significant difference was found (P = .104). The ACEF score was positively correlated with LAD, advanced age, and B-type natriuretic peptide. In patients with NVAF, the pre-ablation ACEF score is a valuable risk score for assessing late AF recurrence after RFCA, as with LAD.

Increased circulating progranulin is not sufficient to induce cardiac dysfunction or supraventricular arrhythmia

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most prevalent cardiac arrhythmia, and the incidence of new-onset AF has been increasing over the past two decades. Several factors contribute to the risk of developing AF including age, preexisting cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, and obesity. Concurrent with the rise in AF, obesity has followed the same two-decade trend. The contribution of circulating proteins to obesity-related AF is of particular interest in the field. In this study, we investigated the effects of increased circulating levels of the glycoprotein progranulin on the development of supraventricular arrhythmias and changes to cardiac function. AAV8-mediated overexpression of full-length mouse progranulin was used to increase plasma protein levels and determine susceptibility to supraventricular arrhythmias and changes in cardiac structure and function. C57Bl/6N mice were subjected to increased circulating levels of progranulin for 20 weeks. Cardiac conduction was evaluated by surface ECG with and without isoproterenol challenge, and cardiac structure and function were measured by echocardiography after 20 weeks of circulating progranulin overexpression. Increased circulating levels of progranulin were maintained throughout the 20-week study. The cardiac structure and function remained unchanged in mice with increased circulating progranulin. ECG indices (P wave duration, P amplitude, QRS interval) were unaffected by increased progranulin levels and no arrhythmogenic events were observed following the isoproterenol challenge. In our model, increased levels of circulating progranulin were not sufficient to induce changes in cardiac structure and function or elicit ECG abnormalities suggestive of susceptibility to supraventricular arrhythmias.

Impact of components of metabolic syndrome on the risk of adverse renal outcomes in patients with atrial fibrillation: a nationwide cohort study

Background

The renal effect of metabolic syndrome components is unclear in patients with atrial fibrillation. This study aimed to investigate the association between metabolic syndrome components and incident end-stage renal disease among patients with atrial fibrillation.

Methods

A total of 202,434 atrial fibrillation patients without prevalent end-stage renal disease were identified from the National Health Insurance Service database between 2009 and 2016. We defined the metabolic score range from 0 to 5 points such that a patient received every 1 point if the patient met each component listed in the diagnostic criteria of metabolic syndrome. The population was divided into 6 groups: MS0-MS5 for a metabolic score of 0-5, respectively. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to estimate the risks of end-stage renal disease.

Results

There were 12,747, 31,059, 40,361, 48,068, 46,630, and 23,569 patients for MS0-MS5, respectively. Compared with MS0, MS5 had a higher CHA2DS2-VASc score (3.8 vs. 1.0) (P < .001). During a median follow-up of 3.5 years, compared with MS0, MS1-MS5 were associated with a gradually increasing incidence of end-stage renal disease, in relation to an increase in the metabolic score, (log-rank P < .001). After multivariate adjustment, a higher metabolic score was associated with a greater risk of incident end-stage renal disease: adjusted hazard ratio [95% confidence interval] = 1.60 [0.78-3.48], 2.08 [1.01-4.31], 2.94 [1.43-6.06], 3.71 [1.80-7.66], and 4.82 [2.29-10.15], for MS1-MS5, respectively.

Conclusions

Metabolic syndrome components additively impacts the risk of incident end-stage renal disease among patients with atrial fibrillation.

Discovery of TBX20 as a Novel Gene Underlying Atrial Fibrillation

Atrial fibrillation (AF), the most prevalent type of sustained cardiac dysrhythmia globally, confers strikingly enhanced risks for cognitive dysfunction, stroke, chronic cardiac failure, and sudden cardiovascular demise. Aggregating studies underscore the crucial roles of inherited determinants in the occurrence and perpetuation of AF. However, due to conspicuous genetic heterogeneity, the inherited defects accounting for AF remain largely indefinite. Here, via whole-genome genotyping with genetic markers and a linkage assay in a family suffering from AF, a new AF-causative locus was located at human chromosome 7p14.2-p14.3, a ~4.89 cM (~4.43-Mb) interval between the markers D7S526 and D7S2250. An exome-wide sequencing assay unveiled that, at the defined locus, the mutation in the TBX20 gene, NM_001077653.2: c.695A>G; p.(His232Arg), was solely co-segregated with AF in the family. Additionally, a Sanger sequencing assay of TBX20 in another family suffering from AF uncovered a novel mutation, NM_001077653.2: c.862G>C; p.(Asp288His). Neither of the two mutations were observed in 600 unrelated control individuals. Functional investigations demonstrated that the two mutations both significantly reduced the transactivation of the target gene KCNH2 (a well-established AF-causing gene) and the ability to bind the promoter of KCNH2, while they had no effect on the nuclear distribution of TBX20. Conclusively, these findings reveal a new AF-causative locus at human chromosome 7p14.2-p14.3 and strongly indicate TBX20 as a novel AF-predisposing gene, shedding light on the mechanism underlying AF and suggesting clinical significance for the allele-specific treatment of AF patients.

Medium-term and long-term renal function changes with direct oral anticoagulants in elderly patients with atrial fibrillation

Objective: Atrial Fibrillation (AF) and chronic kidney disease frequently coexist in the elderly. Warfarin-like drugs (WLDs) may be associated with a relatively greater decrease of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) as compared to direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs), but there is no evidence on the medium- and long-term changes. To further elucidate this issue in elderly patients with AF, we investigated the renal function deterioration in the two groups of the study (DOACs or WLDs). Patients and Methods: A total of 420 AF patients were enrolled (mean age: 77.0 ± 6.0 years; 136 on WLDs and 284 on DOACs). These patients underwent three eGFR measurements during the follow-up period. The between-arms difference of eGFR decline over time was investigated by Linear Mixed Models and group-based trajectory model analyses. Results: In the whole study cohort, after a median follow-up of 4.9 years (interquartile range: 2.7-7.0 years), eGFR decreased from 67.4 ± 18.2 to 47.1 ± 14.3 mL/min/1.73 m² (p < 0.001). Remarkably, patients on DOACs experienced a significantly smaller eGFR decline than WLDs patients (-21.3% vs. -45.1%, p < 0.001) and this was true both in the medium-term (-6.6 vs. -19.9 mL/min/1.73 m²) and in the long-term (-13.5 versus -34.2 mL/min/1.73 m²) period. After stratification into five subgroups according to trajectories of renal function decline over time, logistic regression showed that DOACs patients had from 3.03 to 4.24-fold greater likelihood to belong to the trajectory with less marked eGFR decline over time than WLDs patients. Conclusion: Elderly patients with AF on treatment with DOACs had a relatively smaller decline of eGFR over time compared to those on treatment with WLDs. This is consistent with what was partly reported in the literature.

Managing older people with atrial fibrillation and preventing stroke: a review of anticoagulation approaches

INTRODUCTION

Oral anticoagulants (OACs) are the cornerstone of stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation (AF), but prescribing decisions in older people are complicated. Clinicians must assess the net clinical benefit of OAC in the context of multiple chronic conditions, polypharmacy, frailty and life expectancy. The under-representation of high-risk, older adult sub-populations in clinical trials presents the challenge of choosing the right OAC, where a 'one-size-fits-all' approach cannot be taken.

AREAS COVERED

This review discusses OAC approaches for stroke prevention in older people with AF and presents a prescribing aid to support clinicians' decision-making. High-risk older adults with multiple chronic conditions, specifically chronic kidney disease, dementia/cognitive impairment, previous stroke/transient ischemic attack or intracranial hemorrhage, polypharmacy, frailty, low body weight, high falls risk, and those aged ≥75 years are considered.

EXPERT OPINION

Non-vitamin K antagonist OACs are the preferred first-line OAC in older adults with AF, including high-risk subpopulations, after individual assessment of stroke and bleeding risk, except those with mechanical heart valves and moderate-to-severe mitral stenosis. Head-to-head comparisons of NOACs are not available, therefore the choice of drug (and dose) should be based on an individual's risk (stroke and bleeding) and incorporate their treatment preferences. Treatment decisions must be person-centered and principles of shared decision-making applied.

Evaluation of transitions from early hypertension to hypertensive chronic kidney disease, coronary artery disease, stroke and mortality: a Thai real-world data cohort

Objective

Systemic arterial hypertension (HT) is a major modifiable risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVDs), associated with all-cause death (ACD). Understanding its progression from the early state to late complications should lead to more timely intensification of treatment. This study aimed to construct a real-world cohort profile of HT and to estimate transition probabilities from the uncomplicated state to any of these long-term complications; chronic kidney disease (CKD), coronary artery disease (CAD), stroke, and ACD.

Methods

This real-world cohort study used routine clinical practice data for all adult patients diagnosed with HT in the Ramathibodi Hospital, Thailand from 2010 to 2022. A multi-state model was developed based on the following: state 1-uncomplicated HT, 2-CKD, 3-CAD, 4-stroke, and 5-ACD. Transition probabilities were estimated using Kaplan-Meier method.

Results

A total of 144,149 patients were initially classified as having uncomplicated HT. The transition probabilities (95% CI) from the initial state to CKD, CAD, stroke, and ACD at 10-years were 19.6% (19.3%, 20.0%), 18.2% (17.9%, 18.6%), 7.4% (7.1%, 7.6%), and 1.7% (1.5%, 1.8%), respectively. Once in the intermediate-states of CKD, CAD, and stroke, 10-year transition probabilities to death were 7.5% (6.8%, 8.4%), 9.0% (8.2%, 9.9%), and 10.8% (9.3%, 12.5%).

Conclusions

In this 13-year cohort, CKD was observed as the most common complication, followed by CAD and stroke. Among these, stroke carried the highest risk of ACD, followed by CAD and CKD. These findings provide improved understanding of disease progression to guide appropriate prevention measures. Further investigations of prognostic factors and treatment effectiveness are warranted.

Beat-to-beat finger photoplethysmography in atrial fibrillation patients undergoing electrical cardioversion

Atrial fibrillation (AF)-induced peripheral microcirculatory alterations have poorly been investigated. The present study aims to expand current knowledge through a beat-to-beat analysis of non-invasive finger photoplethysmography (PPG) in AF patients restoring sinus rhythm by electrical cardioversion (ECV). Continuous non-invasive arterial blood pressure and left middle finger PPG pulse oximetry waveform (POW) signals were continuously recorded before and after elective ECV of consecutive AF or atrial flutter (AFL) patients. The main metrics (mean, standard deviation, coefficient of variation), as well as a beat-to-beat analysis of the pulse pressure (PP) and POW beat-averaged value (aPOW), were computed to compare pre- and post-ECV phases. 53 patients (mean age 69 ± 8 years, 79% males) were enrolled; cardioversion was successful in restoring SR in 51 (96%) and signal post-processing was feasible in 46 (87%) patients. In front of a non-significant difference in mean PP (pre-ECV: 51.96 ± 13.25, post-ECV: 49.58 ± 10.41 mmHg; p = 0.45), mean aPOW significantly increased after SR restoration (pre-ECV: 0.39 ± 0.09, post-ECV: 0.44 ± 0.06 a.u.; p < 0.001). Moreover, at beat-to-beat analysis linear regression yielded significantly different slope (m) for the PP (RR) relationship compared to aPOW(RR) [PP(RR): 0.43 ± 0.18; aPOW(RR): 1.06 ± 0.17; p < 0.001]. Long (> 95th percentile) and short (< 5th percentile) RR intervals were significantly more irregular in the pre-ECV phases for both PP and aPOW; however, aPOW signal suffered more fluctuations compared to PP (p < 0.001 in both phases). Present findings suggest that AF-related hemodynamic alterations are more manifest at the peripheral (aPOW) rather than at the upstream macrocirculatory level (PP). Restoring sinus rhythm increases mean peripheral microvascular perfusion and decreases variability of the microvascular hemodynamic signals. Future dedicated studies are required to determine if AF-induced peripheral microvascular alterations might relate to long-term prognostic effects.

Explainable machine learning model reveals its decision-making process in identifying patients with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation at high risk for recurrence after catheter ablation

BACKGROUND

A number of models have been reported for predicting atrial fibrillation (AF) recurrence after catheter ablation. Although many machine learning (ML) models were developed among them, black-box effect existed widely. It was always difficult to explain how variables affect model output. We sought to implement an explainable ML model and then reveal its decision-making process in identifying patients with paroxysmal AF at high risk for recurrence after catheter ablation.

METHODS

Between January 2018 and December 2020, 471 consecutive patients with paroxysmal AF who had their first catheter ablation procedure were retrospectively enrolled. Patients were randomly assigned into training cohort (70%) and testing cohort (30%). The explainable ML model based on Random Forest (RF) algorithm was developed and modified on training cohort, and tested on testing cohort. In order to gain insight into the association between observed values and model output, Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) analysis was used to visualize the ML model.

RESULTS

In this cohort, 135 patients experienced tachycardias recurrences. With hyperparameters adjusted, the ML model predicted AF recurrence with an area under the curve of 66.7% in the testing cohort. Summary plots listed the top 15 features in descending order and preliminary showed the association between features and outcome prediction. Early recurrence of AF showed the most positive impact on model output. Dependence plots combined with force plots showed the impact of single feature on model output, and helped determine high risk cut-off points. The thresholds of CHA₂DS₂-VASc score, systolic blood pressure, AF duration, HAS-BLED score, left atrial diameter and age were 2, 130 mmHg, 48 months, 2, 40 mm and 70 years, respectively. Decision plot recognized significant outliers.

CONCLUSION

An explainable ML model effectively revealed its decision-making process in identifying patients with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation at high risk for recurrence after catheter ablation by listing important features, showing the impact of every feature on model output, determining appropriate thresholds and identifying significant outliers. Physicians can combine model output, visualization of model and clinical experience to make better decision.