Characteristic adverse events and their incidence among patients participating in acute ischemic stroke trials

Predicting 30-day mortality in intensive care unit patients with ischaemic stroke or intracerebral haemorrhage

BACKGROUND

Stroke patients admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU) follow a particular survival pattern with a high short-term mortality, but if they survive the first 30 days, a relatively favourable subsequent survival is observed.

OBJECTIVES

The development and validation of two prognostic models predicting 30-day mortality for ICU patients with ischaemic stroke and for ICU patients with intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH), analysed separately, based on parameters readily available within 24 h after ICU admission, and with comparison with the existing Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation IV (APACHE-IV) model.

DESIGN

Observational cohort study.

SETTING

All 85 ICUs participating in the Dutch National Intensive Care Evaluation database.

PATIENTS

All adult patients with ischaemic stroke or ICH admitted to these ICUs between 2010 and 2019.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Models were developed using logistic regressions and compared with the existing APACHE-IV model. Predictive performance was assessed using ROC curves, calibration plots and Brier scores.

RESULTS

We enrolled 14 303 patients with stroke admitted to ICU: 8422 with ischaemic stroke and 5881 with ICH. Thirty-day mortality was 27% in patients with ischaemic stroke and 41% in patients with ICH. Important factors predicting 30-day mortality in both ischaemic stroke and ICH were age, lowest Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score in the first 24 h, acute physiological disturbance (measured using the Acute Physiology Score) and the application of mechanical ventilation. Both prognostic models showed high discrimination with an AUC 0.85 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.84 to 0.87] for patients with ischaemic stroke and 0.85 (0.83 to 0.86) in ICH. Calibration plots and Brier scores indicated an overall good fit and good predictive performance. The APACHE-IV model predicting 30-day mortality showed similar performance with an AUC of 0.86 (95% CI, 0.85 to 0.87) in ischaemic stroke and 0.87 (0.86 to 0.89) in ICH.

CONCLUSION

We developed and validated two prognostic models for patients with ischaemic stroke and ICH separately with a high discrimination and good calibration to predict 30-day mortality within 24 h after ICU admission.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Trial registration: Dutch Trial Registry ( https://www.trialregister.nl/ ); identifier: NTR7438.

Nurse-led health coaching programme to improve hospital-to-home transitional care for stroke survivors: A randomised controlled trial

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the effects of a nurse-led health coaching programme for stroke survivors and family caregivers in hospital-to-home transition care.

METHODS

A total of 140 dyads of stroke survivors and their family caregivers were recruited and randomly assigned to either the intervention group (received a 12-week nurse-led health coaching programme) or the usual care group. The primary outcome was self-efficacy, and secondary outcomes were quality of life (QoL), stroke-related knowledge, and caregiver-related burden. The outcomes were measured at baseline, 12 and 24 weeks.

RESULTS

Stroke survivors in the intervention group demonstrated a significant improvement in self-efficacy at 12 weeks (x̅: 24.9, 95%CI: 20.2-29.6, p < 0.001) and at 24 weeks (x̅: 23.9, 95%CI: 19.2-28.6, p < 0.001) compared to the usual care group. Findings also demonstrated significant increases in stroke survivors' QoL, stroke-related knowledge, and reduction in unplanned hospital readmissions and caregiver-related burden. There were no statistically significant changes in other outcomes between the two groups.

CONCLUSION

The nurse-led health coaching programme improved health outcomes for both stroke survivors and their caregivers.

PRACTICE IMPACTION

Findings from the study suggest that nurse-led health coaching should be incorporated into routine practice in hospital-to-home transitional care for stroke survivors and their caregivers.

Serious Adverse Events and Their Impact on Functional Outcome in Acute Ischemic Stroke in the WAKE-UP Trial

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

During the first days and weeks after an acute ischemic stroke, patients are prone to complications that can influence further treatment, recovery, and functional outcome. In clinical trials, severe complications are recorded as serious adverse events (SAE). We analyzed the effect of SAE on functional outcome and predictors of SAE in the randomized controlled WAKE-UP trial (Efficacy and Safety of MRI-Based Thrombolysis in Wake-Up Stroke).

METHODS

We performed a post hoc analysis of WAKE-UP, a multicenter, randomized, placebo-controlled clinical trial of magnetic resonance imaging-guided intravenous thrombolysis with alteplase in patients with acute ischemic stroke and unknown time of onset. Functional outcome was assessed by the modified Rankin Scale 90 days after the stroke. SAE were reported to a central safety desk and recorded and categorized by organ system using Medical Dictionary for Regulatory Activities terminology. We used logistic regression analysis to determine the effect of SAE on functional outcome and linear multiple regression analysis to identify baseline predictors of SAE.

RESULTS

Among 503 patients randomized, 199 SAE were reported for n=110 (22%) patients. Of those patients who did suffer a SAE, 20 (10%) had a fatal outcome. Patients suffering from at least one SAE had a lower odds of reaching a favorable outcome (modified Rankin Scale score of 0-1) at 90 days (adjusted odds ratio, 0.36 [95% CI, 0.21-0.61], P<0.001). Higher age (P=0.04) and male sex (P=0.01) were predictors for the occurrence of SAE.

CONCLUSIONS

SAEs were observed in about one in 5 patients, were more frequent in elderly and male patients and were associated with worse functional outcome. These results may help to assess the risk of SAE in future stroke trials and create awareness for severe complications after stroke in clinical practice.

REGISTRATION

URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT01525290 and https://eudract.ema.europa.eu; Unique identifier: 2011-005906-32.

Low blood pressure and adverse outcomes in acute stroke: HeadPoST study explanations

OBJECTIVE

As uncertainties exist over underlying causes, we aimed to define the characteristics and prognostic significance of low blood pressure (BP) early after the onset of acute stroke.

METHODS

Post hoc analyzes of the international Head Positioning in acute Stroke Trial (HeadPoST), a pragmatic cluster-crossover randomized trial of lying flat versus sitting up in stroke patients from nine countries during 2015-2016. Associations of baseline BP and death or dependency [modified Rankin scale (mRS) scores 3-6] and serious adverse events (SAEs) at 90 days were assessed in generalized linear mixed models with adjustment for multiple confounders. SBP and DBP was analysed as continuous measures fitted with a cubic spline, and as categorical measures with low (<10th percentile) and high (≥140 and ≥90 mmHg, respectively) levels compared with a normal range (≥10th percentile; 120-139 and 70-89 mmHg, respectively).

RESULTS

Among 11 083 patients (mean age 68 years, 39.9% women) with baseline BP values, 7.2 and 11.7% had low SBP (<120 mmHg) and DBP (<70 mmHg), respectively. Patients with low SBP were more likely to have preexisting cardiac and ischemic stroke and functional impairment, and to present earlier with more severe neurological impairment than other patients. Nonlinear 'J-shaped' relationships of BP and poor outcome were apparent: compared with normal SBP, those with low SBP had worse functional outcome (adjusted odds ratio 1.27, 95% confidence interval 1.02-1.58) and more SAEs, particularly cardiac events, with adjustment for potential confounders to minimize reverse causation. The findings were consistent for DBP and were stronger for ischemic rather than hemorrhagic stroke.

CONCLUSION

The prognostic significance of low BP on poor outcomes in acute stroke was not explained by reverse causality from preexisting cardiovascular disease, and propensity towards greater neurological deficits and cardiac events. These findings provide support for the hypothesis that low BP exacerbates cardiac and cerebral ischemia in acute ischemic stroke.

PRECIOUS: PREvention of Complications to Improve OUtcome in elderly patients with acute Stroke-statistical analysis plan of a randomised, open, phase III, clinical trial with blinded outcome assessment

Rationale

Aspiration, infections, and fever are common in the first days after stroke, especially in older patients. The occurrence of these complications has been associated with an increased risk of death or dependency.

Aims and design

PREvention of Complications to Improve OUtcome in elderly patients with acute Stroke (PRECIOUS) is an international, multi-centre, 3 × 2 factorial, randomised, controlled, open-label clinical trial with blinded outcome assessment, which will assess whether prevention of aspiration, infections, or fever with metoclopramide, ceftriaxone, paracetamol, respectively, or any combination of these in the first 4 days after stroke onset improves functional outcome at 90 days in elderly patients with acute stroke.

Discussion

This statistical analysis plan provides a technical description of the statistical methodology and unpopulated tables and figures. The paper is written prior to data lock and unblinding of treatment allocation.

Trial registration

ISRCTN registry ISRCTN82217627. Registered on 22 September 2015. The trial was prospectively registered.

Safety evaluation of root extract of Pueraria lobata and Scutellaria baicalensis in rats

Background

The roots of Pueraria lobata and Scutellaria baicalensis, herbal medicines with a long history of widespread use, have been traditionally prescribed in combination to treat stroke, diabetes, and acute infectious diarrhea in East Asia. Nevertheless, toxicological data on these herbs and their combination are limited. This study investigated the acute and 13-week subchronic toxicity of root extract of P. lobata and S. baicalensis (HT047) for stroke treatment in male and female Sprague-Dawley rats.

Methods

In the acute toxicity study, HT047 was administered orally at a single dose of 5000 mg/kg. In the subchronic toxicity study, HT047 was administered orally at repeated daily doses of 800, 2000, and 5000 mg/kg/day for 13 weeks, followed by a 4-week recovery period.

Results

In the acute toxicity study, there were no deaths or toxicologically significant changes in clinical signs, body weight, and necropsy findings. In the subchronic toxicity study, HT047 at all doses caused no death and no treatment-related adverse effects on food consumption; organ weight; ophthalmologic, urinalysis, and hematological parameters; and necropsy findings of both rat sexes. There were some treatment-related alterations in clinical signs, body weight, and serum biochemistry and histopathological parameters; however, these changes were not considered toxicologically significant because they were resolved during the recovery period or resulted from the pharmacological effects of P. lobata and S. baicalensis.

Conclusions

The oral approximate lethal dose (the lowest dose that causes mortality) of HT047 was greater than 5000 mg/kg in male and female rats. The oral no-observed-adverse-effect level of HT047 was greater than 5000 mg/kg/day in rats of both sexes, and no target organs were identified. The present findings support the safety of an herbal extract of P. lobata and S. baicalensis as a therapeutic agent for stroke and further confirm the safety of the combined use of P. lobata and S. baicalensis in clinical practice.

Parkinson's disease and patient related outcomes in stroke: A matched cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate post-stroke outcomes in patients with Parkinson's disease (PD).

METHODS

A matched cohort study was performed. Stroke patients with PD and non-PD controls were extracted from the Thailand Universal Insurance Database. Logistic regressions were used to evaluate the association between PD and in-hospital outcomes (mortality and complications). The PD-associated long-term mortality was evaluated using Royston-Parmar models.

RESULTS

A total of 1967 patients with PD were identified between 2003 and 2015 and matched to controls (1:4) by age, sex, admission year, and stroke type. PD patients had decreased odds of in-hospital death: OR (95% CI) 0.66 (0.52 - 0.84) and 0.61 (0.43 - 0.85) after ischaemic and haemorrhagic strokes, respectively. PD was associated with a length-of-stay greater than median (4 days) after both stroke types: 1.37 (1.21 - 1.56) and 1.45 (1.05 - 2.00), respectively. Ischaemic stroke patients with PD also had increased odds of developing pneumonia, sepsis and AKI: 1.52 (1.2 - 1.83), 1.54 (1.16 - 2.05), and 1.33 (1.02 - 1.73). In haemorrhagic stroke patients, PD was associated with pneumonia: 1.89 (1.31 - 2.72). Survival analyses showed that PD was protective against death in the short term (HR=0.66; 95% CI 0.53-0.83 ischaemic, and HR=0.50; 95% CI 0.37 - 0.68 haemorrhagic stroke), but leads to an increased mortality risk approximately 1 and 3 months after ischaemic and haemorrhagic stroke, respectively.

CONCLUSION

PD is associated with a reduced mortality risk during the first 2-4 weeks post-admission but an increased risk thereafter, in addition to increased odds of in-hospital complications and prolonged hospitalisation.

Central adjudication of serious adverse events did not affect trial's safety results: Data from the Efficacy of Nitric Oxide in Stroke (ENOS) trial

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Central adjudication of serious adverse events (SAEs) can be undertaken in clinical trials, especially for open-label studies where outcome assessment may be at risk of bias. This study explored the effect of central adjudication of SAEs on the safety results of the Efficacy of Nitric Oxide in Stroke (ENOS) Trial.

METHODS

ENOS assigned patients with acute stroke at random to receive either transdermal glyceryl trinitrate (GTN) or no GTN and to Stop or Continue previous antihypertensive treatment. SAEs were reported by local investigators who were not blinded to treatment allocation. Central adjudicators, blinded to treatment allocation, reviewed the investigators reports and used evidence available to confirm or re-categorise the classification of event, likely causality, diagnosis and expectedness of event.

RESULTS

Of 4011 patients enrolled in ENOS, 1473 SAEs were reported by local investigators; this was reduced to 1444 after the review by adjudicators, with 29 re-classified as not an SAE. There was fair agreement between investigators and adjudicators regarding likely causality, with 808 agreements and 644 disagreements (56% crude agreement, weighted kappa, κ = 0.31). Agreement increased upon dichotomisation of the causality categories, with 1432 agreements and 20 disagreements (99% crude agreement, kappa = 0.54). Repeating the main trial safety analysis with investigator reported events showed that adjudication had no effect on the main trial safety conclusions.

CONCLUSIONS

In a large trial, with many SAEs reported, central adjudication of these events did not affect trial conclusions. This suggests that adjudication of SAEs in a clinical trial where the intervention already has a well-established safety profile may not be necessary. Potential efficiency savings (financial, logistical) can be made through not adjudicating SAEs.

PRECIOUS: PREvention of Complications to Improve OUtcome in elderly patients with acute Stroke. Rationale and design of a randomised, open, phase III, clinical trial with blinded outcome assessment

BACKGROUND

Elderly patients are at high risk of complications after stroke, such as infections and fever. The occurrence of these complications has been associated with an increased risk of death or dependency.Hypothesis: Prevention of aspiration, infections, or fever with metoclopramide, ceftriaxone, paracetamol, or any combination of these in the first four days after stroke onset will improve functional outcome at 90 days in elderly patients with acute stroke.

DESIGN

International, 3 × 2-factorial, randomised-controlled, open-label clinical trial with blinded outcome assessment (PROBE) in 3800 patients aged 66 years or older with acute ischaemic stroke or intracerebral haemorrhage and an NIHSS score ≥ 6. Patients will be randomly allocated to any combination of oral, rectal, or intravenous metoclopramide (10 mg thrice daily); intravenous ceftriaxone (2000 mg once daily); oral, rectal, or intravenous paracetamol (1000 mg four times daily); or usual care, started within 24 h after symptom onset and continued for four days or until complete recovery or discharge from hospital, if earlier.Outcome: The primary outcome measure is the score on the modified Rankin Scale at 90 days (± 14 days), as analysed with multiple regression.Summary: This trial will provide evidence for a simple, safe and generally available treatment strategy that may reduce the burden of death or disability in patients with stroke at very low costs.Planning: First patient included in May 2016; final follow-up of the last patient by April 2020.Registration: ISRCTN, ISRCTN82217627, https://doi.org/10.1186/ISRCTN82217627.

Results of the ICTuS 2 Trial (Intravascular Cooling in the Treatment of Stroke 2)

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Therapeutic hypothermia is a potent neuroprotectant approved for cerebral protection after neonatal hypoxia-ischemia and cardiac arrest. Therapeutic hypothermia for acute ischemic stroke is safe and feasible in pilot trials. We designed a study protocol to provide safer, faster therapeutic hypothermia in stroke patients.

METHODS

Safety procedures and 4°C saline infusions for faster cooling were added to the ICTuS trial (Intravascular Cooling in the Treatment of Stroke) protocol. A femoral venous intravascular cooling catheter after intravenous recombinant tissue-type plasminogen activator in eligible patients provided 24 hours cooling followed by a 12-hour rewarm. Serial safety assessments and imaging were performed. The primary end point was 3-month modified Rankin score 0,1.

RESULTS

Of the intended 1600 subjects, 120 were enrolled before the study was stopped. Randomly, 63 were to receive hypothermia plus antishivering treatment and 57 normothermia. Compared with previous studies, cooling rates were improved with a cold saline bolus, without fluid overload. The intention-to-treat primary outcome of 90-day modified Rankin Score 0,1 occurred in 33% hypothermia and 38% normothermia subjects, odds ratio (95% confidence interval) of 0.81 (0.36-1.85). Serious adverse events occurred equally. Mortality was 15.9% hypothermia and 8.8% normothermia subjects, odds ratio (95% confidence interval) of 1.95 (0.56-7.79). Pneumonia occurred in 19% hypothermia versus 10.5% in normothermia subjects, odds ratio (95% confidence interval) of 1.99 (0.63-6.98).

CONCLUSIONS

Intravascular therapeutic hypothermia was confirmed to be safe and feasible in recombinant tissue-type plasminogen activator-treated acute ischemic stroke patients. Protocol changes designed to reduce pneumonia risk appeared to fail, although the sample is small.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01123161.

Online Tool to Improve Stratification of Adverse Events in Stroke Clinical Trials

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Knowing characteristic adverse events (AEs) and their incidence among patients participating in acute stroke trials may assist interpretation of future studies. We aimed to develop an online tool to inform stroke trial safety.

METHODS

We identified relevant AEs from patients within the Virtual International Stroke Trials Archive (VISTA), using receiver operating characteristic principles. We modeled their incidence on patient age, baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale, and comorbidities using binary logistic regression. Models with an R(2) >5% were deemed powerful enough to predict expected AE incidences and were included. The calculator was developed using programs R and Visual Studios.

RESULTS

Forty-eight of the most common AEs were identified and incorporated into the IschAEmic Stroke Calculator. The calculator, publicly available at http://www.vistacollaboration.org calculates the expected incidence of AEs or groups of AEs in a trial cohort and where possible compares them with the observed incidence.

CONCLUSIONS

The IschAEmic Stroke Calculator is an open access resource to support safety interpretation within acute stroke trials. Prediction of AEs with higher likelihood of occurrence may direct preventive clinical measures.

Multimorbidity and Patient Safety Incidents in Primary Care: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

BACKGROUND

Multimorbidity is increasingly prevalent and represents a major challenge in primary care. Patients with multimorbidity are potentially more likely to experience safety incidents due to the complexity of their needs and frequency of their interactions with health services. However, rigorous syntheses of the link between patient safety incidents and multimorbidity are not available. This review examined the relationship between multimorbidity and patient safety incidents in primary care.

METHODS

We followed our published protocol (PROSPERO registration number: CRD42014007434). Medline, Embase and CINAHL were searched up to May 2015. Study design and quality were assessed. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were calculated for the associations between multimorbidity and two categories of patient safety outcomes: 'active patient safety incidents' (such as adverse drug events and medical complications) and 'precursors of safety incidents' (such as prescription errors, medication non-adherence, poor quality of care and diagnostic errors). Meta-analyses using random effects models were undertaken.

RESULTS

Eighty six relevant comparisons from 75 studies were included in the analysis. Meta-analysis demonstrated that physical-mental multimorbidity was associated with an increased risk for 'active patient safety incidents' (OR = 2.39, 95% CI = 1.40 to 3.38) and 'precursors of safety incidents' (OR = 1.69, 95% CI = 1.36 to 2.03). Physical multimorbidity was associated with an increased risk for active safety incidents (OR = 1.63, 95% CI = 1.45 to 1.80) but was not associated with precursors of safety incidents (OR = 1.02, 95% CI = 0.90 to 1.13). Statistical heterogeneity was high and the methodological quality of the studies was generally low.

CONCLUSIONS

The association between multimorbidity and patient safety is complex, and varies by type of multimorbidity and type of safety incident. Our analyses suggest that multimorbidity involving mental health may be a key driver of safety incidents, which has important implication for the design and targeting of interventions to improve safety. High quality studies examining the mechanisms of patient safety incidents in patients with multimorbidity are needed, with the goal of promoting effective service delivery and ameliorating threats to safety in this group of patients.

Regulation and Governance of Multinational Drug Trials in Stroke: Barriers and Possibilities

Over the last 10 years, there has been stagnation in the number of multinational drug trials in stroke in Europe. One important cause of this is probably the increased burden of laws and regulations that came with the European Union Clinical Trials Directive. The main objective of research regulation and governance should be to protect research participants, their tissues, and data, but the approval systems are complex, regulation is variably interpreted and enforced, and the assessment of studies is often not proportionate to the risk of the research to participants. Such unnecessary barriers should be reduced by simplifying, centralizing, and harmonizing the application process, and by applying regulatory and governance requirements in a way that is proportionate to the potential harms to the patients. The traditional functions of a regulator (in setting, monitoring, and enforcing quality standards) could also be supplemented with an aim to actively help researchers achieve these standards, for example, by giving advice, and ultimately with an aim to facilitate and promote research, for example, by integrating research in everyday clinical practice. Research networks offer one way of integrating research and clinical practice across multiple centers, and can streamline research delivery by supporting researchers deal professionally and efficiently with the regulations and governance requirements.